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- [00:00]
Sophie Cunningham
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:02]
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- [00:35]
Public Investing Advertiser
Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors llc. SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes on and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete Disclosures available at public.comDisclosures in the
- [01:36]
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- [02:02]
Michael Lasker
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- [02:35]
Michael Lasker
Want to drive Carmax?
- [02:39]
Chad Millman
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rock bet. We are part of the Volume podcast network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper, makes the wise guys pay attention no matter the topic. That is true today. I am Chad Millman. I am joined as always by my bff, my companion, my compadre, professional better, my co host, Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
- [03:06]
Simon Hunter
Chad. I'm coming in hot today. I gotta take. I've been sitting on for a month.
- [03:10]
Chad Millman
Oh, my God.
- [03:11]
Simon Hunter
Because I know we're on opposite sides of this one majorly. I know this is a movie you're gonna absolutely love. And it's a little movie called Hoosers and interesting. I love that movie. As a kid now rewatching it, I mean, 15, 20 years later, horrible movie. I think it sent coaching back about 30 years in American culture because this was such a cold classic. I. I couldn't believe it. It's a story about a man beat up a kid in college and goes back to coach kids in high school. And his whole thing is my way or the highway, and I'm smarter than everybody. And I was like, oh, my God, you know, idiots watch this. And they were like, you know what? That's the right way to coach Bobby Knight. And man, I love the, love the acting, love the time period of it, but my God, Gene Hackman, it was tough.
- [03:59]
Chad Millman
So why are you bringing that up now? Is it something that you recently rewatched and you've been waiting? Because today is our Oscar show and we will have our favorite annual guest on in a minute. But are you bringing it up? Because you just watched it, saw it
- [04:15]
Simon Hunter
a month ago and I was sitting on it because I was like, I gotta wait for the Oscars. I need to hear Chad's opinion, but no one to hear us talk movies except once a year. And this is it. So I've been sitting on. I was like, is Chad still like this movie? Because to me it was just heartwarming American story. When you go back and watch like, man, late earlies, early 90s, such a weird time period where this is just such a strange movie, that movie.
- [04:36]
Chad Millman
So it's funny you mentioned that because I did a little Indiana double feature about six weeks or so ago and I did Hoosiers and I did Breaking Away. And both of the movies are much slower than you remember when you watch them the first time. Breaking Away to Me still holds up brilliantly. It's so subtle. It's, it's so sweet. I love the stakes. Hoosiers, I still think holds up and I still love it. I did want to use Hoosiers. Like the scene where he gets everybody to clap with him in the locker room. I had to give a presentation at ESPN and at the end to the entire digital group, not just the group that I worked with, but everybody who worked in digital, which is a massive operation. And I took a big swing. I'm like, at the end of it, I'm going to show this scene and I'm going to build in my presentation towards this scene and everybody clapping and I ended up getting everybody to clap. But I will say, I will say I completely agree with you. Like this dude just beating the crap out of people and then going to the, the high school and getting the second chance after he's beaten people up. That wouldn't hold up today. Completely agree.
- [06:01]
Simon Hunter
I can tell you. And yeah, it's, you know, we're gonna, we're get the Oscar. But it's just funny going back and watching old movies. It's always, I'm always like, are these gonna hold up? Like, I don't know if you ever seen the movie Vision Quest. Yeah, movie I love. I can't believe I, I didn't realize it was rated R. I remember seeing as a teenager, it must have been on tv. So they edit out a lot of the parts obviously. Yeah. If you see the R rated version, people very different movie Vision Quest R
- [06:24]
Chad Millman
rated than is Vision Quest for some reason is all over my TikTok feed these days. I'm glad you're talking about the movies because we're continuing a podcast tradition. The 98th Academy Awards are this Sunday at the Dolby Theater in Hollywood and we are joined as always for this show. Very special friend of the show. He's going to help us talk all things betting on Hollywood's biggest night. I didn't know how much of an insider and what a power player this guy was until we had lunch brunch together in LA a few weeks ago. Longtime manager at Mosaic, true powerhouse in the comedy community. Most importantly, he is an Oscar savant who can name every nominee in every major category going back over 50 years. Welcome back to the show. Michael Lasker.
- [07:29]
Michael Lasker
Always love your introductions and it was great to see you in LA about a month ago with our dear friend Alan Loeb, who I work with, former former podcast guest.
- [07:38]
Chad Millman
I feel like I brought you guys
- [07:39]
Michael Lasker
together in a way. You did you did. No. It was great to see you. And you know, I love coming on here. I love talking about the Oscars and this has turned out. I mean, you know, this is a great year and everybody's constantly loving to like malign the business and what's going to happen and the studio's are merging and this and that. But this is definitively, objectively has been an amazing year for movies. Incredible story, you know, that you have two movies from the same studio that have been so celebrated and are so great, so different in many ways and similar in some ways. And I was saying to somebody, I think, you know, I go back and forth on liking the ten nominee for best pictures because I'm such a, I'm a traditionalist. I still like the five nominees, but this was a good year where the 10 nominees kind of made sense with the way they really created diversity with the 10. But I could have named you five to 10 other movies that could have been in those 10, which is always a sign of it being a really good movie year. So obviously everybody has their favorites, excuse the pun. And, you know, that's why it's fun and, you know, unclear how surprising it's going to be on Sunday. We're going to talk about where there could be some surprises and again, you know, and Simon, I don't want to burst your bubble. I think it's hard to make money. Like I, I know this is, you'll laugh. There's more money in my mind to be made and in the Oscar pool inside your living room than there is like online because there's so many precursor awards and there's so much information out there. This is different than trying to be able to predict an upset in sports or something. So I don't know how you make money on, like Jesse Buckley. She's obviously going to win. I mean, you could make money if you picked, you know, you know, Renata Renzvir, you know, who is likely not going to win. Maybe her odds are better, but that is likely not going to pay out. So we can get into all that and figure out, you know, where this might be going.
- [09:24]
Chad Millman
Simon, when we were in LA when Lasker, Alan Loeb and I had lunch together, Lasker had so many questions about you. He did not have any questions about Matt Mitchell, but he had so many questions about you, how you do what you do. He was, he was honestly fascinated. He was fascinated a way that, you know, Hollywood people, they're not really fascinated by other people. So this was truly revelatory for Me?
- [09:55]
Michael Lasker
Well, I, you know what it was I said, you know, what I know about sports gambling is from casino. When they're talking about how Ace Rothstein would know if, like the quarterback had been like, laid the night before, you know, how he's going to perform. I was like, does Simon know that? And he does. He was just like, simon knows everything. There's all kinds of new. And Chad, you're selling yourself short. You've written several books. You're working on a new book I can't wait to read.
- [10:18]
Chad Millman
Thank you.
- [10:19]
Michael Lasker
You know, obviously we're in an insane era of maybe gambling's ruining the world. Maybe it's going to ruin an entire generation of men. You know, that's, that's not for today. I'm not Jonathan Haight. You know, this is not my, this is not my beef. But it's very, uh. Gambling might be too accessible to people. But that's, that's. I mean, in my gambling extent is a Oscar pool in my living room, which I'm very excited about.
- [10:44]
Chad Millman
Lasker, everything is betting. And right now I'm betting on the fact that you can answer this. Ready? Ready.
- [10:50]
Michael Lasker
Okay.
- [10:50]
Chad Millman
Pop quiz for Michael Lasker.
- [10:53]
Michael Lasker
Sure.
- [10:54]
Chad Millman
1982 film year.
- [10:59]
Simon Hunter
Yep.
- [11:00]
Chad Millman
Best actor winner.
- [11:03]
Michael Lasker
The best actor in 1982 for the film year. And so your audience knows when you talk about the Oscars and you say a year, you want to say the film year, not the year that the show was in, because the show is always two to three months after the year. So the 1982 best actor was Ben Kingsley for Gandhi. Best picture was Gandhi. Best director was Richard Attenborough for Gandhi. Best actress was Meryl Streep for Sophie's Choice. Best supporting actress for Jessica Lange for Tootsie. Best and best supporting actor was Louis Gusset Jr. For an officer and Gentleman. Do you have any other questions?
- [11:32]
Chad Millman
Wow. I just want people to know that during the show I'll be. Random pop quizzes. I know Simon has a lot of thoughts on the first category. Best picture nominee. The favorite is One Battle after Another. Second is Sinners. Third, shortest odds is Hamnet, followed by Marty, Supreme Begonia, Frankenstein, Sentimental Value. On and on and on. It's a two picture race between One Battle After Another and Sinners. Simon is a vampire freak. Lasker. If you don't mind, I would like Simon to give his very hot take on this particular category. And Sinners is a vampire movie. I don't know what he's gonna say. I have no idea. Simon, take it away.
- [12:20]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I'll just start from the top as a vampire movie. I think at the basis, it's a good movie if you're, if you're a brand of vampires. It's a cool premise. It's a cool movie. It's well done. Obviously the director did a really well job putting it all together and had a vision and, you know, big risk and it came together perfectly at a perfect time in this country. I think that's why it is nominated now as someone's a fan of vampire movies, you know, this doesn't hold a candle to Blade, which I think is one of the greatest moves ever with Wesley Snipes. That's much older. It's obviously a different movie, but like, to me, that's a great vampire movie. This, I don't want to ruin this for these, for people, but this is a classic, very dumb movie where they couldn't figure out to end it and they basically teleported Michael B. Jordan from inside a barn to outside past 100 vampires to kill somebody. And like, that was my biggest issue where it's, it was a movie that the ending kind of fell on its face for a me. And I was like, okay, fun movie. Would never in a million years you could have gave me 101 odds that it would even be nominated the Oscars. And I probably wouldn't have bet it because to me it's like, no, this will never be an Oscars movie. This does not fit the criteria of an Oscars. It's not a good ending, but I guess it's a good movie overall. The fact that it's a chance to win now at plus 250 is blowing my mind. So, yeah, I would love to hear your opinion on this because, you know, movies like Hamnet I think is a hundred times better. Again, I'm not a good smart movie critic. I'm just shocked. These intelligent people that do this voting, they love sinners. Like, is it just, Is it just because of Michael B. Jordan because of, you know, things going on in the country right now, or is there more to this? There's something I'm missing with this movie.
- [13:59]
Michael Lasker
I, I think what happens. And I, I loved the movie. And I'll give you the vampire. Take my take on that in a second. What happens in Hollywood, which I think is one of the best versions of the Oscar race of Hollywood, is that, yes, oftentimes you feel like the Oscar race is dominated by period piece movies issue movies. You know, Gandhi, Philadelphia, you know, out of Africa, you know, Schindler's List, things like that. But when Hollywood makes a big Hollywood movie that feels like it's for all the masses and it doesn't feel like it's homework at times, and I love all those movies I just mentioned, but doesn't feel like it's homework. And when that can execute in a way where it starts to elevate and it is about something more than just being a vampire movie, which I'll get to, that is when Hollywood really takes notice. Part sometimes it's like the box office, you know, I mean, it made so much money and had such saying power last spring. And look, Coogler is a genius. And the industry loves Coogler. I mean, what he did with Creed is unbelievable. Black Panther was unbelievable. Fruitville Station is an amazing movie. And so I think what you're seeing, and I'll come back to this later, why I feel like PTA will win is that you're watching Coogler kind of become like a newer version of like a PTA. Meaning, like, you know, because PTA is almost like 60. And Coogler's maybe late 30s, early 40s. But like, you're seeing this new generation of directors rise up to be the new PTAs, the new Christopher Nolan's, Greta Gerwig, Ryan Coogler, Jordan Peele, you know, people like that Josh Safdie, who's nominated, Chloe Zhao. So I feel like, to answer your question, like, why it's here, it's because it became a phenomenon now, I would tell you. So I got the vampire stuff. What I appreciated about it, which I thought was very smart of Coogler to do, is that because the characters were all living in this time period, you know, they're not living in 1990 where everyone's like, seen vampire movies, right? So to all the characters, except for Michael B. One of one of the twins estranged wife wouldn't be Sako, who's nominated. She was the only person in the movie who understood anything about the spirit world, right? She's the one who like, kind of got that these, they the Irish that show up, you know, are vampires. And so I thought what Coogler did was very smart, is that he took something that we have seen 10,000 versions of. 10,000 versions of holy Water and the Cross. And, you know, vampires have to be invited in and all those things. And he made it feel new again because it was new in the eyes of the characters, right? All the people that were in the barn were like, what the fuck is going on? Like, who are these people trying to kill us? And Then when you factor in that, it's also a story about the plight of African Americans who still can't get ahead because, you know we're going to spoil the movie. It's been out for 14 months. You know, you find out at the end of the movie, like, the white racist guys were only selling them the barn to murder them the next day. And, of course, Michael B. Jordan gets the revenge then. Coupled with the notion that the Irish. It's sort of touching on how the Irish were being treated by everybody, you know, and certainly being treated when they left Ireland. And so, to me, I think that's where it started to transcend itself. And people thought, this is a new take on a vampire movie, but it's also a take on the plight of the racist south, you know, and what is still happening today. In some ways, you know, I think one battle for another. Obviously, that movie, you feel like you're watching something that's happening literally right now with so many of those sequences. And, like, the sequence that has never left my brain is when they tell. They make. They have some code word during the riot in Baton Cross where you realize they're telling their own person to go through the other side of the fight to throw the. The Molotov cocktail. And it's just a reminder that, like, the government is instigating some of these issues to begin with. So back to sinners. I think that that's what happened. I mean, it's like when you make money and you get incredible reviews and you have an auteur who's literally putting out these PSAs about the aspect ratio and how he shot the movie. And then you have Michael B. Who's now almost 40. And we'll get to all the stuff about, like, the phenom, you know, best actor race and the young guys. You have him coming into his own. And now you got Delroy, who's never been nominated, and you just. It becomes greater than the sum of its parts. And that's. That's what happened. I really loved it. I love Blade, too. Blade's great, but that's why it's there, you know? And that's what I think is cool about this race, is because Hamnet is the most traditional. Like, that's an Oscar movie, famous book produced by Steven Spielberg. Kid dies, makes you cry. That's the key.
- [18:17]
Simon Hunter
You gotta cry here, you know.
- [18:20]
Michael Lasker
But, like, one battle's not an Oscar movie, you know, not on its face, which I think is one reason why that's had so much staying power, is that when that trailer hit a year and a half ago or a year ago now, really, people did not quite know what to make of it. You know, I mean, PTA's work, he's a genius. He's my favorite working director, but his work as of late has been very, very experimental. Like, you watch the Phantom thread, you're like, I think this movie is really funny, but she's poisoning him. This is like a very weird, like, rom com, sort of. And then Inherent Vice is a really odd, you know, movie, you know, in the kind of in the vein of, like, Philip Marlo detective movies and novels. And so I think people didn't quite know what to expect with this PTA movie. Like, Leo looks really odd, and he's being really goofy, and. Yes, sensei. And then when I saw that movie in September, I mean, I was. I was absolutely knocked out. I felt like he really did kind of make a movie for our time, even though he was writing it for, like, 15 years. And it's based off an old Thomas Pinchone novel. And. But it does have a lot to say, and it was funny. I'm gonna. I'm gonna really nerd out here. I was on a plane recently, and I was watching the Godfather, which obviously I've seen 10,000 times. And I realized watching, like, the first 45 minutes of the Godfather, that the Godfather, being about 10,000 things, is also very much about how the new generation. Is it up for the previous generation. Don Corleone, Vito Corleone did things a certain way, not really with any malice in his heart. When you go into the second movie, you see him as a young man. He's really just helping people out in the neighborhood who are being extorted. And he's really not killing people, you know, maliciously. And what you realize is that he's come to the end of his era, and his sons are not ready to take over. And by the first 45, 50 minutes of the movie, when, you know right before Sunny's spoiler alert, Sonny's gonna be murdered and Michael is going to kill the cop and go away, and you realize that all the sons, the new generation, they're. They're doing everything wrong. They're not doing it the way he would have done it. Remember, in the beginning of the Godfather, Solazo comes to Don Corleone and says, I need you to stake me in the narcotics business because you have all the politicians in your pocket. And Don Corleone says, I wouldn't have them in my pocket if I got into the Drug business. It's the end of an era. And one after another is saying the same thing, a little more nuanced. It's saying that this generation, they fought as hard as they could to make it a better generation and they failed. You know, you look in that movie and every person who is caught by the government ends up squealing. Nobody has a choice. The government's too strong. Right. Like Regina hall squeals. The guy who's taken, you know, who's doing the two way radio. He squeals the minute they say that you're, we know where your sister lives.
- [21:02]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [21:02]
Michael Lasker
You can't defeat the government. And I think what PTA was doing on a macro level, he was talking about the times we're in and some of it was kind of pushed with the Christmas Adventurers club. But I mean, you look at those scenes and you're like, well, that's what I feel like J.D. vance is doing every day. Like that's so far. You're so far fetched. But then the core of it, and maybe I'm just saying this because I have two daughters. It's a father daughter story. And you realize that he's, spoiler alert, he's not her father, but he loves her. He doesn't know how to tell her that he loves her, but he ends up saying that I love you in the way that only he can by trying to save her. And so I think the movie just, it just hit on so many levels of it's people in crisis and this young woman who is the world is in front of her and she's got to now figure out what choices she's going to make. And her mother made a lot of bad choices. Her mother shoots that bank teller, the bank security guard, in cold blood, you know, because she's going through PTSD from having a child. And so I don't think the movie has any easy answers, which is why people loved it so much. But then pta, because he is such a brilliant filmmaker, he really, in that third act was like, but I'm going to give you, I'm going to entertain you. I'm going to give you these hills. I'm going to show you something you've never seen. I'm going to take these rolling hills and I'm going to turn into this roller coaster and create this amazing action set piece that is surprising and is rooted in character because the daughter has some training, she's not an idiot. And she figures out how to, how to outsmart this guy. And then every Time I watch the end of that movie when Leo says, it's me, it's your father. It's your dad. You know, it's like waterworks. So it's been a great year for movies. So many things to look at and think about. Mari supreme was great. This is an amazing foreign film, international film year. Secret Agent, which I know people, some people in my life have struggled with watching. I thought that was a great movie. It was just an accident, which is made by an Iranian filmmaker, but it's from the country of France. That's a. That's sort of a technical Oscar thing. That was a great movie. Obviously, there's so much going on in the world right now with Iran. There are great movies not nominated. So anyways, I'm. I'm monologuing. I don't mean to, but it was a great year for movies. And I think, to answer your question, Simon, the Academy gets different things from different movies, and that galvanizes them. And would this have happened for Ryan Coogler if it was his second movie? Maybe. I think the fact that it's his fifth or sixth movie, he's just now one of those people where when he makes something, it's special. I think that that happened for Guillermo speaking. He made Blade to. Guillermo del Toro was making all these amazing kind of genre films. He had made Pan's Labyrinth, which won best international film in the. In 2006, I believe. But then when he made Shape of Water, the Academy was like, oh, he's kind of growing up. This is a more adult story. But it's with his unique spin now, every time Guillermo del Toro makes a movie, they. They notice it, you know, they pay attention. Frankenstein's nominated for a lot. It's going to win a couple below the line on Sunday for sure. And so I think sometimes filmmakers, they have to. They grow into the people they become. And then the Academy and the business takes note and it. It elevates it at the time.
- [24:05]
Public Investing Advertiser
Same.
- [24:05]
Chad Millman
Same time, Lasker might think that he's on the town because he keeps calling him pta. Paul Thomas Anderson, for those who aren't Hollywood insiders.
- [24:15]
Sophie Cunningham
Hey, guys, it's Sophie Cunningham from Show Me Something. So Arby's just dropped a deal. That honestly feels a little unreal.
- [24:21]
Arby's Advertiser
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- [24:28]
Sophie Cunningham
So here's the setup. You choose your sandwich, a classic roast beef crispy chicken or or the crispy fish sandwich. Already a very strong start, but then
- [24:37]
Arby's Advertiser
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- [24:46]
Sophie Cunningham
And there's a small drink in there too, so even though it's called meat and three, you're actually getting five items for just $7.99. That's kind of wild.
- [24:54]
Arby's Advertiser
Pick the sandwich you want, make it your own, and get it your own way.
- [24:58]
Sophie Cunningham
Available for a limited time at participating locations. While supplies last prices may vary. Get your meat in three box at an Arby's near you today.
- [25:06]
Verizon Advertiser
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- [25:55]
Public Investing Advertiser
Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public, you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year. You can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services. By open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors, llc. SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosure is available at public.com disclosures
- [26:55]
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- [27:21]
Michael Lasker
Lenovo
- [27:26]
Chad Millman
Two things one, I think it's fascinating that the favorites to win the Best Picture Oscar are both films that were tremendously commercially successful. And if you can, throw Marty supreme in there too, as a long shot. But these are movies that had big stars, that had big campaigns, that became really big box office successes. And usually that is, to your point, both of you, a knock on them winning. And yet that is going to be something that happens. Hamnet fellas. I couldn't watch it, and I don't mean that in a negative. Jesse Buckley was amazing, but I at one point, you know, everyone hopefully has seen it, but when the kid is dying, it's so painful. I was under my covers, like I could, I literally couldn't watch it. I was under my covers, my eyes were closed, I was crying hysterically. My wife had to leave the room. She's like, what the fuck are we doing here? This is terrible. But it was, it, it was a hard, hard watch and I'm glad to see some commercially enjoyable movies getting their shot. Lasker.
- [28:48]
Michael Lasker
Yes.
- [28:49]
Chad Millman
Does one battle after another win the Oscar?
- [28:53]
Michael Lasker
Yeah, I, I think it will. I mean, you know, it might not, but I, I believe it will. I think what's going to happen is, you know, there's only a couple movies are in multiple Oscars on Sunday. Sinners in One Battle will win the most. I think. As of now I have one Battle winning six and Sinners winning four. I think One Battle wins Picture Director, Adapted Screenplay Supporting Actor for Sean Penn, editing and Cinematography. Those would be the six. Then, I think Sinners wins Best Actor Michael B. Jordan, Best Original Screenplay Ryan Coogler, Best Casting and Best Original Score. Now that could change. That could. I mean there's all these like hinge categories that are very early in the night. Like if all of a sudden Sinners wins editing Sinners might be winning best Picture all of a sudden Sinners wins cinematography. Maybe that's a suggestion. It's going to, it's going to do more. If all of a sudden Delroy or one me and supporting actress, if one of them win, that might tell you something. But I think because of this late surge of Michael B. Jordan being the favorite to win best actor and that category is still very up in the air. But I think my, I look, I go into this stuff and I think you have to think about what's the narrative the next day and what is the narrative in the voters minds. And I've, I've never left. The narrative of One Battle is winning picture and director. PTA is finally getting its director Oscar on top of getting an Oscar for adapted screenplay. And that people are going to feel like because we're giving One Battle this, we want to give Sinners that. And now we have this great way to honor Sinners, which is Michael B. Jordan, who was amazing in that movie and completely worthy. So that's where I think it starts to split. But also, I mean, if we think Michael B. Is winning best actor, then maybe Sinners could surprise. I mean, there's been a ton of splits in the 21st century where one movie wins picture, one movie wins director. I still think just in talking to Academy voters, One Battle was like really the movie of the year. And I think to Simon's point, what I have gleaned from people is that there's still a feeling of, oh, but Sinners is just a vampire movie. Sinners is like, that's not a best Picture winner. And with that said, it was nominated for 16 Oscars and broke the record for the most nominations of all time. So it's here, which means it can easily win and it's going to be one of those two movies. But I still think One Battle is going to win. I just think that pta, I just think it's his moment. And in a weird way, I mean, to the uninitiated listeners, he's been waiting for literally 30 years. He was nominated for best original screenplay for Boogie Nights in 1997, and then he got more nominations in 2007 for their Opie Blood, Best Director, Best adapted Screenplay. And then he's not nominated for the Master, Excuse me, that he's nominated for director, A Phantom thread. He's nominated for director and screenplay of Licorice Pizza. So he's been nominated a ton. He's been here a lot. They love him. Also, you know, for your listeners, there's lots of award shows that are not on television. I was at the DGAs, that's the directors Guild. These are not televised, but they're attended by everybody who's been nominated. And he won that night. He spoke twice. Because each nominated director gives one speech and then the winner gives another speech. And he has like, he's aced every award show because he's just been himself and he's just been cool and humble and talking about art and talking about all the great movies. And I think he's just like, I think people just like, kind of worship him. And I don't think he's going to be denied. And ryan Coogler, who's 20 years younger than PTA, is going to have five to seven more chances to do this.
- [32:20]
Simon Hunter
You know, I needed, I needed that, Chad, because I, I have a lot of money invested. That's why I was worried about Sinners. It's like, what is happening? I couldn't believe when I saw the odds posted because I, I bet this a while ago and I know you asked how people bet this. I bet this in parlays. So, like, I literally have this, I have some of these bets attached with the Super Bowl. I have something Denver and from the AFC Championship Game. So.
- [32:41]
Michael Lasker
But have you done a parlay just for the Oscars where it's like I'm picking these three categories? Have you done that?
- [32:47]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, like, I, again, it's, I do it early to try to get better odds. To me, though, I was right there with you. I just thought one battle after another was just, it felt like it was having its moment and that like, all lined up for that to win the Best Picture and, you know, Sinners, as much as I'm talking about, about that, the Best Picture, I do agree with you that, you know, it's a toss up for Best Actor. And I did invest in Michael B. Jordan at like 2001 because it was a long shot at that time because again, he played two parts where it's like, okay, they might have given Best Picture because it's a vampire movie, but for Best Actor, he played both parts. And it feels like by him not talking a lot, right, he's not giving his opinions on the ballet or the opera. He's kind of been doing the right thing, right? Going about his business. I feel like you're giving out a sneaky pick here. People at best act, you can still get them, you know. You know, plus a thousand, plus 2,000 certain books. So I, I like that play by you because most People kind of are assuming it's still, you know, gonna be Timothy Chalamet, if anything, as the. As the runner up, but, you know, Michael B. Jordan now, you know, minus 150. It's. It's moving to him being the favorite now for best actor. I don't know if you want to get the best actor.
- [33:57]
Michael Lasker
I would tell you this. And again, you know, you're the professional gambler, and I don't know if this makes sense. This is a category where maybe you could make money by literally betting all five guys at different, like, levels. Because this is the one category now.
- [34:12]
Simon Hunter
He's like, minus 150. You kind of. He's kind of the big favorite.
- [34:15]
Michael Lasker
Right, right, right. I guess my point simply, again, I really look at it just from, like, the Oscar pool in my. In my kitchen, is that this is the one where literally I can make the argument for all five guys winning. Like, people loved. I thought he was really brilliant in it. People loved Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon. And he's such a. Like, he's another guy who's just, like, done it right. People love him. He's this institution. Leo could win as the elder statesman. He's amazing in that movie. We've covered Timmy and Michael B. And Wagner, Mora. There's a lot of people out there, a lot of smart people. Sean. Fantasy. I don't know. I didn't listen to them yet today. But he talked about Wagner a lot, like, about Secret Agent. I mean, that's a winnable performance, too, you know, I mean, I mean, look, if you've been nominated, you can win. And my point is, that's the one category on Sunday where, like, I will not be surprised by anybody. They. They say, you know, I think it will be Michael B. And if it's not Michael B. I think it'll be Timmy. People love Timmy in that movie. The ballet stuff came after the voting window closed. I. I think the bigger thing on Timmy, which a lot of people have covered, is just he's such a phenom of an actor that there's still this little bit of, like, let's make him wait a little bit more. And it's interesting because, you know, Michael B. Came up as a kid actor, as did Timmy.
- [35:29]
Simon Hunter
He's 10 years older, though, right?
- [35:31]
Michael Lasker
As did Leo. Yes. Michael B. Is 39. He's born in 87. And. But I. I think that with Timmy, it's like, he's already been nominated for three Oscars. He's 30 years old. I mean, he's on a rate Like a Leo or Robert Duvall or, you know, Kate Blanchette. Like, he's gonna be nominated six, seven, eight, nine times. And I hope Michael B. Is nominated a million more times. But this is his first nomination at 39. And so I think there's a feeling of like, we watched this guy grow up. We love him. He did play two parts in the movie. I can't think back, to be honest, of when someone who played two parts did win. Though Nicholas Cage played two parts in Adaptation, did not win in 2002, that was Adrian Brody's first Oscar for the Pianist. So I think it's not. It doesn't mean he'll win, but it certainly helps him because it does create a higher level of difficulty that he pulled off. But I think he'll win. I think there's a feeling again, my point is he'll win because of the wave of Sinners. Because I think people are looking at their ballot and you're basically voting two tickets. You're figuring out what's my one battle ticket, what's my center's ticket. Now there will be ballots where someone's going to do all one battle and they're also going to give it to Tiana and they're going to give it to Leo and on and on and on. They're going to give the score to Johnny Greenwood and then there's gonna be a Sinners One ticket. One ticket where, you know, again, the opposite. And that'll pick up six, seven, eight, nine Oscars. There's also a version where. How about this? One Battle and Sinners each win five Oscars. One battle wins director, supporting actor, adapted screenplay, cinematography and editing. That's its five Sinners wins actor casting, original score, actor casting original score, original screenplay and picture. That could happen. That could easily happen. And now they each win five. And there's also a lot of years where a movie that wins Best Picture doesn't win that many Oscars. There's other movies that win more Oscars.
- [37:23]
Chad Millman
I have a question about Michael B. Jordan. I'm a huge fan of Michael B. Jordan. I'm so glad that he is now the favorite to win for best actor. I thought he was phenomenal in the movie. I have a sentimental place in my heart for him because of Friday Night Lights. And I love that the two people who are the biggest stars are him from Friday Night Lights. Him and Jesse Plemons are the ones who every year are getting accolades for their movies. I don't. I didn't love Marty Supreme. I just didn't think it was that good of a movie. I thought it was self indulgent. I thought it was too long. I thought that it was one note. Everything was just, how was this guy and this guy's bombastic ego going to get him in trouble this time? The same thing over and over and over. It was just chaos upon chaos upon chaos because this guy couldn't get out of his own way. And it should have been a movie I love. Like, I am a sucker for that period of the 40s and 50s in New York Jews, there's gambling. Like all that stuff I should have loved. And I thought the movie was just kind of annoying.
- [38:37]
Michael Lasker
Look, I mean, I, I like the movie. I liked it a lot. I did not love it. The movie hinges on two big, big moments at the end of the movie that I won't spoil. That didn't entirely work for me for
- [38:48]
Chad Millman
something, literally everything else. Lasker.
- [38:52]
Michael Lasker
That's true.
- [38:52]
Chad Millman
You don't want to spoil Marty Supreme.
- [38:54]
Michael Lasker
Well, you know what? You're right because. And the reason I spoil them, I mean, One battle's made 200 million, you know, sinners, I think is in the three hundreds and Marty made like 150. So yes, there's two big moments at the end of Marty Supreme. One when he finally wins the ping pong match, but it's just exhibition. And one when he sees his child for the first time. And those moments for me, I liked, but I've talked to people like, you know, it's kind of like, you know, when Trump lies about, like this man came up to me and was weeping because he has, you know, a better job now. Like, it's like I was weeping at the end of Marty supreme when he saw his kid, you know, and I just didn't feel that. And I love my kids. And so I like the movie. It's definitely the third time the dog showed up. I was like, I've had enough of the dog. Yeah, I think that, that the Safdies, and this was just only made by Josh Safdie. They make a very special kind of only, only a movie they know how to make. And it's very fascinating how they populate it with people that they've met in New York and interesting people like Kevin o' Leary to play, you know, to play the guy, the villain. And so I liked so much of it, but I didn't love the whole of it, which I think is what you're getting at. And look, it had a lot to say. You're right. I mean, it was very Much I've done to people that were like, we don't get it. It was, it was about what it meant to be a Jew post war and what the struggle was. But seeing through the idea of ping
- [40:11]
Chad Millman
pong halls, I didn't get that. As, as a, as a Jew who is culturally connected to every era whose in laws were born in the 30s. Like, not feeling it. Not feeling it.
- [40:30]
Michael Lasker
You know what somebody told me recently and I, I agree. The 30 second sequence of the other ping pong player telling the story of being in the concentration camp and finding the bees and the honey and putting the honey on his body for everybody to lick off his body. People were like, that's the movie I want to see. Where was that movie? Like, there was something so interesting in that 30 seconds of that anecdote. And look, I think. And this also might be why Timmy doesn't win. I thought to me towards the end I was getting annoyed by the character. Certainly not to me as an actor. He's a genius actor. But you know, it's a tough character. He's a, he's a tough guy. And that now to people who love the movie, that is, the point is, that is the whole point of the movie is that he's on this trajectory where he's treating everybody like fucking dog and then realizes none of it meant anything because now I'm a dad. And for some people that really, really landed.
- [41:22]
Chad Millman
That's. By the way, that's saccharine sentimental.
- [41:28]
Michael Lasker
I would not call that movie saccharine.
- [41:30]
Chad Millman
That, that theory is saccharine sentimental. That movie was a one note. This guy's bombastic and annoying and can't get out of his own way. And I didn't get anything from him being a changed person by having a kid. Because by the way, just about everybody feels like their life changes when they have a kid. And then you go back to being who you are.
- [41:56]
Michael Lasker
It's a good point. I mean, as somebody has two small kids, it's like you just realize like you're never going to get, you're never going to sleep in again and you never have any free time again.
- [42:06]
Chad Millman
And you're. But it's like, I just didn't buy it.
- [42:09]
Sophie Cunningham
I.
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Chad Millman
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- [46:56]
Michael Lasker
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- [47:00]
Chad Millman
we talked about Jesse Buckley Hamnet about halfway through and I saw Like Begonia. I thought Emma Stone was amazing. I watched if I had legs I'd kick you. I thought Rose Byrne through the first 90 minutes of that torture fest was phenomenal. And then I just couldn't take it anymore in the end. Went off the rails for me. If I'm Rose Byrne, I look at this and I'm like, I did the same thing Jesse Buckley did. I was a struggling mom with a challenging life and a absent husband in a terrible situation. Why aren't I getting more consideration? Why is Jesse Buckley getting all the attention?
- [47:45]
Michael Lasker
I. I think, look, Rose, there is no doubt in Simon. I don't know if you can make money off it. If you want to pick a spoiler, there it is. Rose Byrne for sure. And then it'd be Kate Hudson, who I thought was incredible in Song Sung Blue. I think there's just something. Even though it's both of their first nominations, at the end of the day, the. The. Jesse's performance in that movie feels more weighty. Obviously got a lot of nominations on top of just her performance. I think there's something about it being about Shakespeare and there's just something about it that it's even more like, I guess, here's how I look at it. Jesse's been nominated once already for the Maggie Gyllenhaal film a couple years ago. And I think that Jesse is on this trajectory inside Hollywood of, like, we've been watching her for 10 years now. We think she's a genius, and here we have a movie where our proof was proven that she is a genius. I think the Rose narrative is we have been obsessed with her for, you know, 20 years now, really, since Damages and then Bridesmaids. When she's in Bridesmaids, you're like, oh, wow. Like, she can be really funny. She has a whole other side to her. And. But I think that narrative is, we've loved you forever and now you're incredible in this movie. And the win is we nominate you to show you that we think you've arrived to this next level. And so I think. I think that is how people square some of these things. Rose was unbelievable in that movie, and I thought that movie was really good. Yes, it was hard to watch. I'm not sure I'd watch it a second time, but it was an incredible portrait of somebody struggling, being a parent and having no help and not knowing how to, like, navigate the world. And so. But I think those are the narratives you have to think about. It's like, for Jesse, it's a little bit of a. Like, it's. It isn't. It's time of, like, we've been watching you and, like, we're not going to turn like, the Woman, literally. You watch her face process losing a child in the middle of the movie.
- [49:35]
Chad Millman
Well, I didn't because my face was covered, but I've heard it was amazing.
- [49:38]
Michael Lasker
Here's my. Here's my hot take on Hamnet, which I thought was great, is that it's. It's horrifically sad. It's the worst thing could ever happen. But in the movie, like, five characters are like, I've lost three kids already.
- [49:50]
Chad Millman
You know what I mean?
- [49:51]
Michael Lasker
Because everyone's losing kids because of the plague. You know what I mean? Like that people losing kids. Way people lose socks today. And so. But no, it's. It's horrific. And, you know, then what's cool, which you did not see, is the whole point of the movie is how art can heal us. And William Shakespeare didn't quite know how to say, I'm a boy and I wasn't there for you and I'm sorry. And instead he said he was sorry through the play. And that was a really beautiful device. And the last third of the movie, when the play happens, is really, really incredible. I mean, Chloe is an incredible director. Absolutely amazing, and very worthy of her second nomination. She already won for Nomadland in 2020.
- [50:30]
Chad Millman
Yeah. The end of the movie was great, and it was uplifting, and it did bring humor and light, and you could see them smiling, and you did feel a little bit better. Two things I learned about Jesse Buckley while incessantly watching TikTok instead of actually writing the book that you mentioned earlier on the show.
- [50:48]
Michael Lasker
Sure.
- [50:49]
Chad Millman
One, she's an incredible singer. Like, there's all these clips of her doing Sinead o' Connor songs on rte, the Irish television channel in Ireland, and she's unbelievable, number one. Number two, that scene where the kid dies and she just. She just lets it go full, like, scream that honestly makes you want to disappear into a dark, dark hole. She did that multiple times. And that was the third take, I think that she did, and it wasn't what she had done previously. And she just sort of unscripted, let it go. Different than how they had rehearsed it and thought about it, and that's the one that they kept.
- [51:38]
Michael Lasker
I didn't know that. That's amazing. The other thing, too, I know she just had a baby. I don't. So I don't know if this is her first child. So interesting if she did not even have a kid when she shot the movie. You know?
- [51:48]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [51:49]
Michael Lasker
Actors, you know, that's, you know, you're just, you know, you don't have to, you know, have been in a concentration camp to be in Schindler's List, to play. You know what I mean? Like, so, yeah, she's. She's great. I mean, I. She's a lock.
- [52:01]
Simon Hunter
No, I feel like you're not even. You're beating her on the bush. She's a lock to win it.
- [52:04]
Michael Lasker
There's this movie she was in out of Ireland years ago where she plays a. An Irish woman who wants to be a country singer, and she has addiction problems. It's a really, really good movie. I think it's called Wild Rose.
- [52:18]
Chad Millman
Speaking of naming esoteric movies and parts before we get to best Actress, pop quiz. We're going into supporting actress film, year 1994. Give Me Winner and the nominees for best supporting Actress.
- [52:40]
Michael Lasker
Okay, the winner is Diane Weiss for Bullets Over Broadway. Also nominated is Jennifer Tilly for Bullets Over Broadway. Also nominated as Uma Thurman for Pulp Fiction. Also nominated as Rosemary Harris for Tom and Viv. And then the fifth nominee is Helen Mirren, who's her first nomination for the Madness, King George. And then that same year, Forrest Gump wins Best Picture. Zemeckis wins director. Tom Hanks wins the second Oscar in a row for Forrest Gump. Jessica Langman's best Actress for Blue Sky. Very little seen film that barely got released. I'll come back to that in a second. And then supporting actors, Martin Landau for Ed Wood. Adapted screenplay is Eric Roth for Forrest Gump and original screenplay is Tarantino and Roger Avery for Pulp Fiction. And on the blue sky of it all. Yeah. So that movie was, like, barely getting released. And the Academy basically just decided, even though Jessica Lange had one supporting actress for Tootsie in 1982, they were like, jessica Lange doesn't have a Best Actress Oscar. It's time for her to have that. And she. And she won that Oscar. I've actually never even seen the movie. I'm sure it's good. She plays, like, a military wife who's having, like, a breakdown. That's her. Tommy Lee Jones. But that movie, like, came out of nowhere. And then she was just kind of, like, anointed that year.
- [53:51]
Chad Millman
So that, by the way, producer, one of the producers of Pulp Fiction.
- [53:58]
Michael Lasker
Huh? It was at the next table at our breakfast.
- [54:02]
Chad Millman
Lawrence Bender. Yeah. We saw at lunch that day.
- [54:05]
Michael Lasker
That's right.
- [54:05]
Chad Millman
It was a star. Studded star.
- [54:08]
Michael Lasker
Studded star.
- [54:09]
Chad Millman
But the reason I wanted to talk about Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress is because that always tends to be a category where, like you just noted, with Jessica Lange, it is like a front runner can often be someone from a movie that is completely out there, that not a lot of people see. It feels like the category where the voters want to reward someone who's been around forever, and they want to give them this opportunity. And, like, that's a spot where the movie might not have been seen by a lot of people. This year's favorite is Amy Madigan in a movie that not a lot of people have seen, a movie called Weapons. This also happens to be, I think, of the categories, we're talking about the absolute 100% closest race, because it's Yona Taylor with one battle. Is there a race to be had here?
- [54:58]
Michael Lasker
There definitely is. And by the way, not to. Not to ever contradict you. I mean, the movie made a lot of money, so, like, the public saw Weapons. But I think what you're getting at, and I think this is. Speaks to the bigger point of this category, is that the supporting actor and actress categories are where the. Where the Oscars can get, like, a little funky.
- [55:19]
Chad Millman
Yes, that's really what I mean.
- [55:20]
Michael Lasker
And get a little weird. So, like, Marisa Tomei, 1992 for my cousin Vinnie. Right? Like, and she beat out four other women that were all in, like, period pieces and more dramatic stuff. Whoopi Goldberg for Ghost in 1990. Although Ghost was nominated for best picture and did win best Original Screenplay for Bruce Joel Rubin. But, you know, there's a lot of examples where, you know, even Heath Ledger winning posthumously in 2008 for the Dark Knight, like, this is where you can kind of, like, have a little more fun. And so, you know what I did. I think the race is Tiana versus Amy. I think I would bet Amy. I think what's interesting about Amy is she was nominated, like, 40 years ago, but, you know, she's kind of. It's like, no one, like, knows who she is, but you do know she is because she's Kevin Costner's wife in Field of Dreams. And if you're like. If you have a heartbeat, you've seen that movie, she's like, oh, yeah, she's the great wife in that movie. She's married to Ed Harris. I think she's gonna win for a couple reasons. One, the supporting. The supporting actor races are sometimes where they. Where they give it to a villain, which also is gonna help Sean Penn, who I think is gonna win, and she's the villain of that movie by a long stretch. But also I thought was interesting is that, like, every single person who went to that movie did not know. Not only did not know Amy Madigan was in the movie, but when she enters the movie, did not even know that was Amy Madigan. You're watching the movie and you're like, I've seen every movie ever. I'm sitting there, I'm thinking, is that Amy Madigan, who is this weird, clownish woman who might be like, the devil? And then you realize that it is Amy Madigan and it is such a fearless performance and it's so funny. I mean, that last time inside Movie, I was so scared of my mind and I was laughing uncontrollably because it's so fucking crazy how it ends. And she's given really good speeches. She's quasi Hollywood royalty, you know, this relationship marriage with Ed Harris. I think she's gonna pull it off. Tiana, though, could pull it off too. Tiana. It's a little reminiscent of Mahershala ali winning in 2016 for moonlight, where he's only in the first act of the movie. And then you kind of know off screen that his character had been killed because he was a drug dealer. And you're led to believe that he was probably killed due to what he did for a living, but he kind of hovers over the movie. This is a similar performance where she's so unbelievable in that first act, and then she obviously does disappear until a little bit of a voiceover in the final scene of the movie. And she's amazing in it. I think what the Academy might have to think about here, back to the whole kind of like, making people wait versus not, is like, Amy Madigan's in her 70s. Like, she's probably not getting nominated again. Who knows? Teyana was a musician, is still a musician, who now turns out is a brilliant actor and, like, has a lot in front of her. But I talked to a lot of people who voted for Tiana, so it's going to be one of those two for sure. It's a great race. I would lean towards Amy, though.
- [58:13]
Chad Millman
God, she was so good in a field of dreams. Simon, do you feel prepped and ready? Do you feel like we're going to win some money?
- [58:21]
Simon Hunter
I do, I do.
- [58:23]
Chad Millman
Do we have any pop quizzes that you want to give Lasker before we get out of here?
- [58:26]
Simon Hunter
I do not.
- [58:28]
Chad Millman
Pop quiz. Lasker 19. No. 2002 film the Year. Okay, it's an easy one. Okay, it's an easy one. Best picture, Best picture nominees.
- [58:45]
Michael Lasker
Okay, 2002, the best picture winner is Chicago. And the other nominees, this one, there was only five nominees. It's Chicago wins and it's The Pianist. It's Gangs of New York, it's the Hours, and it's Lord of the Rings, the Two Towers. It was the second Lord of the Rings movie. Then in best director, that's when Roman Polanski, who could not be there because he can't come to America, he upsets. He wins best director. That was a split year. So he wins director for the Pianist, but Chicago wins best picture. Best actress was Nicole Kidman for the Hours. Best actor was Adrien Brody, which was also a surprise. That category was so loaded. It was Adrien Brody for the Pianist. It was Nicholas Cage for Adaptation where he played two characters. Simon. It was Jad Nicholson for About Schmidt. It was Michael Caine for the Quiet American. And it was Dionne Day Lewis for Gangs in New York. Supporting actor was Christopher Cooper for Adaptation. Great, great movie. Great performance.
- [59:39]
Chad Millman
He won. He won for that.
- [59:40]
Michael Lasker
He won. And then supporting actress was in 2002. Supporting actress. Why am I blanking? Was, of course, Catherine Zeta Jones for Chicago. And adapted screenplay was Ronald Harwood for the Pianist. And original screenplay was Talk to Her, a brilliant, brilliant movie by Pedro Almodovar. He won it with his brother. Incredible movie about a man who's a nurse who falls in love with a woman who's in a coma. It's about their relationship. So those are the main winners of that year. So that was 2002.
- [60:11]
Chad Millman
You've done it, Lasker. You've proven. Thank you. Proving you still got it. Michael Lasker supreme Hollywood insider, knows it all. Thanks for coming on Sharper Square, making us all Smarter about the 98th Oscars. Coming up next week, we've got some March Madness on Tuesday, part two of our NFL win totals on Thursday. This has been Sharper Square, part of the volume podcast network. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square, like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple pods, wherever you get your pods rate. Review. Subscribe. Leave us.
- [60:46]
Michael Lasker
Five stars.
- [60:46]
Chad Millman
Say, what do you want to. Feedback is a gift. Till next time. Love you.
- [60:52]
Public Investing Advertiser
You can save your breath.
- [60:53]
Michael Lasker
I know I'm not getting paid.
- [60:54]
Chad Millman
You'll never be happy.
- [60:55]
Michael Lasker
You will never be happy.
- [60:58]
Chad Millman
All right,
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Sophie Cunningham
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Arby's Advertiser
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Sophie Cunningham
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Michael Lasker
This is Daniel Cormier from the Daniel Cormier Show.
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Chad Millman
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Michael Lasker
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Michael Lasker
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Michael Lasker
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Michael Lasker
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Michael Lasker
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Michael Lasker
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Sophie Cunningham
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