Sharp or Square – NFL Week 1 Best Bets (Sept 4, 2025)
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Podcast Network: iHeartPodcasts & The Volume
Episode Overview
In their first NFL Week 1 breakdown on the new Volume podcast network, betting analyst Chad Millman and professional bettor Simon Hunter dissect their favorite sides, divisional contests, and sharp-vs-square angles for a packed Week 1 slate. They mix data-driven trends, sharp market movement intel, and classic contest strategy talk—plus banter on public “traps” and why you need “brass balls” for certain underdogs. The show climaxes with their evolving Five Best Bets and “Brass Balls Bet” of the week.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Wise Guy Hotline & Week 1 Market Recap
[05:44–09:43]
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Giants-Commanders Line Movement:
Simon reports sharp resistance on Washington, with many pros liking the Giants, especially at bigger numbers. But Simon sees major O-line issues for the Giants, particularly with Andrew Thomas's status in question.“Too much is being made of Russell Wilson as if he’ll fix that team...the offensive line has caught up to them.” – Simon Hunter [06:22]
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Green Bay-Detroit Complications:
The hosts stand by Detroit as an unjustly disrespected team with too much O-line and skill position talent to fade, despite trendy sharp love for Green Bay.“Green Bay’s overrated…too much smoke’s being pumped up their asses. And on the flip side, too much hate is thrown at this Lions team.” – Simon Hunter [07:32]
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Sharp Loves:
- Ravens, Browns, and Jets—especially at key numbers.
- Public fade of the Patriots: "The hype has gone too far."
2. Deep Dive: Raiders at Patriots
[09:43–12:43]
- Chad grabbed Raiders +3, calling it a discipline play given public and media Patriots hype.
- On the injury front: Christian Gonzalez uncertainty is crucial. Simon says a healthy Gonzalez is worth “half a point” to the Patriots’ spread.
- Strategy: Wait for the best number; don’t chase at +2.5 if you can.
3. Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
[12:43–16:39]
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Both hosts love the Browns as divisional home dogs, highlighting historic ATS angles (77% since 2009 for home division dogs) and the trenches mismatch with the Bengals’ suspect O-line.
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Chad details Stefanski’s system strengths and the underrated backfield.
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Simon pushes the anti-Burrow-in-week-one angle and the case for Browns ML or teaser legs.
“The history backs it up, but it’s also the D-line vs. O-line matchup for Cleveland…it’s a huge discrepancy.” – Simon Hunter [14:31]
4. Giants at Commanders: Upset Alert?
[18:06–22:28]
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Wise guys jump on Giants +6 or higher, but the number slides towards Washington.
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Andrew Thomas’s injury is a sticking point, further tipping Simon toward the Commanders.
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Simon likes the Commanders if the number dips as low as 4.5.
“If you give me four-and-a-half on the Commanders, I’m gonna hit it pretty heavy.” – Simon Hunter [21:34]
5. Quick Hits: Panthers-Jaguars, Colts-Dolphins, and Money Management
[22:28–30:08]
- Panthers-Jaguars: Massive offensive question marks and WR concerns for Carolina, so the guys pass—despite the hook temptation.
- Colts-Dolphins: Slow, sharp fade of the public Colts marks; Miami feels like the side with greater explosive potential.
- Bankroll Advice: Simon urges listeners not to force too many Week 1 bets, focus on disciplined unit management. “Money management is literally 50% of the battle.” [60:43]
6. Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets: Value Watch
[33:22–36:28]
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Pros hammered Jets +3, driving the number down. Simon still likes Jets at +2.5—though admits three is much more valuable.
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Both teams are viewed as middling, “mirror image” squads with question-mark offenses.
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If +3 reappears, bet it.
“This is going to be ugly. It’s going to be grueling. No one’s winning this game by more than three, Jets or Pittsburgh.” – Simon Hunter [36:24]
7. Brass Balls Bets: Titans and 49ers-Seahawks
[36:28–48:49]
Tennessee Titans (+8) at Denver Broncos
- Simon’s “Brass Balls Bet” demands faith in red-flagged underdogs:
- “Long-term winners…might feel gross, looks gross. But it’s how I make a living.” – Simon Hunter [38:30]
- Cites 73% ATS for +8/+10 Week 1 dogs over 20 years, although Chad resists due to a rookie QB at altitude.
- Simon rebuts with market and regression trends for Denver.
San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) at Seattle Seahawks
- Wise guy money pours in on Seattle as a divisional home dog.
- Chad confesses bias toward SF in futures, but Simon lays out the Kubiak effect and home field trend (Seahawks 30-6 at home in weeks 1–3).
- Insider anecdote: “A guy I really respect…hit the Seahawks for 50k.” [47:07]
- Key number: Only playable for Simon at +2.5, not less.
8. Detroit Lions (+2) at Green Bay Packers
[50:05–54:55]
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Chad’s “Chad loves love” bet.
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Simon and Chad both believe the line has moved too far on uncertain player statuses, especially for Green Bay’s Micah Parsons.
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Both feel the Lions’ offensive structure and defensive talent are undervalued, and Packers injuries at WR are significant.
“It’s about the number, right? Two and a half in our contest, plus two. We love it…getting a loaded Detroit team as a +2.5 dog against an overhyped Green Bay team.” – Simon Hunter [53:19]
9. Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills
[54:55–59:18]
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Ravens have moved from +1.5 dogs to -1 favorites (“Rock and a Hard Place Bet”).
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Both still like Baltimore; Simon underscores Lamar Jackson’s record on turf (19–3 ATS) and as an underdog.
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The host sense a narrative overreliance on Josh Allen for Buffalo.
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Bet: Even with the flip, the Ravens are their pick under -2.
“It sounds stupid…But it’s factual when [Lamar] plays on turf—he’s a different player.” – Simon Hunter [56:37]
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
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On discipline and line shopping:
“If we are talking ourselves into betting the Raiders at +2.5, shame on us.”
– Chad Millman [09:49] -
Stat of the week:
“Home divisional dogs since 2009: 77% ATS.”
– Simon Hunter [14:14] -
Emotional investment:
“Good old battered Flacco. He’s so old now, he actually IS battered Flacco.”
– Chad Millman [16:39] -
Money management mantra:
“Money management is literally 50% of the battle. Please, people, be smart with your money.”
– Simon Hunter [60:45] -
Brass Balls Bet Debut:
“This year, it’s not enough to have big balls … you need to have brass balls.”
– Chad Millman [42:41] -
Sharp context on public dogs:
“Don’t let Chad take you down this dark path.”
– Simon (channeling feedback from sharps) [07:20]
Timestamps for Important Segments
| Segment | Timestamps | |--------------------------------|--------------| | Show housekeeping + Wise Guy Hotline intro | 01:50–05:44 | | Giants–Commanders, Green Bay–Detroit lines | 05:44–09:43 | | Raiders–Patriots: Discipline & Gonzalez injury | 09:43–12:43 | | Browns–Bengals contest rationale | 12:43–16:39 | | Giants–Commanders O-line, Andrew Thomas | 18:06–22:28 | | Panthers–Jaguars, prop talk, Miami–Indy | 22:28–30:08 | | Jets–Steelers, market shifts | 33:22–36:28 | | Titans (+8) at Broncos – Brass Balls Bet | 36:28–42:41 | | Seahawks–49ers breakdown | 43:48–48:49 | | Lions–Packers, contest value | 50:05–54:55 | | Ravens–Bills, Lamar on turf, line flip | 54:55–59:18 | | Contest picks/Money management/ML round robin| 59:18–63:28 | | Closing banter (Survivor, sharp/square picks)| 63:28–end |
Five Best Bets & Contest Strategy
[59:18–end]
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Solid confidence in:
- Detroit Lions
- Cleveland Browns
- Baltimore Ravens
- Tennessee Titans (Brass Balls Bet)
- Final spot between Raiders, Jets, Commanders, or Seahawks—will decide Sunday AM based on line moves/late injury info.
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Round Robin Moneyline Parlay Picks:
Saints, Panthers, Jets, Lions, Browns -
Survivor pool:
Denver Broncos -
Sharp vs. Square:
Chad: Miami;
Simon: Ravens
Tone, Personality & Final Advice
The chemistry and banter are sharp, with Simon as the steady strategist and Chad as the passionate contest voice. Both stress avoiding overreaction in Week 1, shopping for the best numbers, and protecting bankroll. The “brass balls” concept and contest drama set the tone for the season’s narrative.
“Pick your spots. Don’t force bets…The NFL is the sharpest market.”
– Simon Hunter [60:43]
This episode is a must-listen for NFL bettors who want a blend of data, market insight, and genuine in-the-trenches contest advice before kickoff.