Sharp or Square: Best NFL Week 2 Bets (September 11, 2025)

Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter | Podcast: Sharp or Square by iHeartPodcasts and The Volume

Episode Overview

Chad Millman and Simon Hunter, veteran betting experts, break down their best bets for NFL Week 2, dissecting sharp (wise guy/professional) versus square (public) plays for every marquee matchup. They debate major line moves, analyze trends and injuries, push back against popular narratives, and attempt to narrow down their top five contest picks for the week. Expect in-depth handicapping, an honest assessment of their own biases, and plenty of good-natured arguing over the NFL's most intriguing lines.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Wise Guy Hotline: Early Week Feedback ([01:49])

• Simon shares insights from fellow pros and bookmakers on overwhelming trends, including unexpected love for the Giants despite their poor performance.
  • "Pretty shocking. All the calls I got about just more Giants love. I was like, you didn't get burned last week?" (Simon, [01:49])
• Pros love: Colts +3 (now down to +1.5), Titans (as home dog), Jets, Seahawks.
• Games pros disagree with Simon/Chad: Eagles vs. Chiefs (public loves Eagles, pros love Chiefs), Minnesota (Simon likes them, most pros don't).

Game-by-Game Breakdown

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens ([06:10])

• Line: Opened 12.5, moved down to 11.5, now climbed to 12.
• Chad: Leans away; tough to find clear edge or supporting trends for such a big divisional dog.
  • "We will find five games that we like more." ([07:37])
• Simon: Initially tempted by Browns' secondary, but hesitant due to line movement indicating wise guy support for Ravens.
• Survivor Pool: Raven at home a candidate, but both ultimately prefer to pass.

New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys ([10:05])

• Line: Down to 5 due to Giants money after Cowboys' defensive injuries.
• Both hosts: Lean Cowboys despite public alignment; uncomfortable trusting Giants’ "ineffective quarterback, really bad offensive line."
  • "I don't mind the Cowboys here." (Chad, [11:45])
• Key stat: Dak Prescott is 13-2 straight up and 10-5 ATS vs. Giants, only losses against Eli Manning ([13:03]).
• Survivor Angle: Cowboys have burned them before, but this appears to be "the best spot."
• Notable Quote: "Every time we touch them, we die. They are literally our black widow." (Simon, [13:03])

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions ([18:29])

• Line: Was 4.5, settled at 5.5, moved to 6.
• Chad: Bears fan, sees emotional volatility, but questions whether Bears' staff/roster can turn things around quickly enough.
• Simon: Took early value (Bears +4.5), now passing. Both see possible "buy-low" Bears, but prefer not to force it.
  • "At what point does the hate go too far on this Bears team?...Rookie coach on the road in a revenge spot..." (Simon, [20:31])

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets ([21:47])

• Line: Fluctuates between +6.5 and +7 for Jets.
• Simon: Loves Jets, but notes it's getting popular; wise money consistently bets Jets at +7.
  • "It's slowly becoming a little square...but I just can't believe the public's joining us." ([22:33])
• Chad: Recommends patience—wait for +7 on Sunday.
  • "I'd almost rather risk waiting for the seven...I'd rather be patient and just try to get a seven." ([23:51])
• Schematics: Jets’ run game matches up well vs. Bills' soft defensive front.
• Emotional Factor: "Jets need it more," after a humiliating Week 1 loss.

Seattle Seahawks @ Pittsburgh Steelers ([26:54])

• Line: Seahawks +3.
• Both: Like Seattle; market overvalues Steelers after fortuitous, not dominant, Week 1.
• Chad: Public perception is lagging—believes Steelers were "lucky."
• Tomlin Trend: After his defense gives up 32+ points, Steelers are 10-1 ATS next week (Simon, [28:04]).
• Notable Quote: "I think the Steelers are just being overvalued here. I think that the market looks at the Steelers and knows the public is going to come in..." (Chad, [29:40])

Los Angeles Rams @ Tennessee Titans ([30:59])

• Line: Titans +5.5.
• Brass Balls Bet of the Week: Titans (again).
• Rams popular teaser/favorite, but Simon says the smart move is backing the ugly home dog.
• Pros: Titans' pass rush (Jeffery Simmons) can disrupt Stafford behind banged-up Rams OL.
  • "This number probably should be four, three and a half. We're getting a bump because of how bad Cam Ward and this team looked to the general public." (Simon, [33:55])
• Narrative: All about buying low on unlucky Titans.

Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts ([35:46])

• Line: Opened +3 Colts, now Broncos -1.5.
• Movement reflects sharp Colts action; both feel "best of the number" is gone but lean Colts if forced.
  • "If it's two and a half in your contest, I'm gonna be tempted...But as we sit here right now, one and a half, if you want to bet it. I don't hate the number." (Simon, [39:27])

Kansas City Chiefs @ Philadelphia Eagles ([40:15])

• Line: Massive move—Eagles go from +1.5 dog to -1.5 favorite.
• Public: Loves Eagles. Pros: Lining up for Chiefs.
• Chad: Concern for recency bias—yards Mahomes, Andy Reid, Chiefs at home + points.
  • "To me, this is about the number and about the flip...do we have such recency bias that we're forgetting it's Patrick Mahomes...?" ([41:15])
• Simon: Staying square, trusts roster strength, spot, and Chiefs' injuries—“I just can't get over this number… books give too much respect for Mahomes." ([42:19])
  • Chiefs only home dog once before, lost outright (stat).
• Locked In: Simon pushes hard for Eagles -1.5 as an "executive" pick.
  • "We will be so against what the conventional wisdom is..." (Chad, [47:11])

Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings ([51:06])

• Line: Opened -4.5 Vikings, drifted down to -3 due to Atlanta injury news.
• Simon: Dug in on Vikings; sees improving QB play (McCarthy), overvalued Atlanta.
  • "I have this number at 6. I moved it down now that Drake London is healthy, I do have it at four and a half." (Simon, [52:20])
• Chad: Not eager, says "all the value is gone"—won't be a five-pick priority.

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots ([57:31])

• Line: Briefly at +2, back to +1.5, mostly static after Miami blowout.
• Chad: Bet Dolphins as a pure trend play ("teams off 20+ pt blowout loss at home"), but sees nothing special now.
• Simon: Patriots or nothing; O-line injuries damning for Miami, coaching mismatch.
  • "If it wasn't Drake May, I really would be just hammering this line because it's like if you have a comparable quarterback here that doesn't turn the ball over...this should be a very easy cover for this Patriots team." (Simon, [62:16])
• Trends: Teams favored after 21+ point blowout losses in Week 1 are 5-12-2 ATS since 2005 ([60:18]).
• Discussion left for Sunday, pending further info.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Jacksonville Jaguars ([65:05])

• Line: Down to -3.5, hosts watching for movement to -3 to jump on Bengals.
• Simon: Reluctantly points to a trend—Burrow is 0-6 ATS as a favorite in Weeks 1-2.
• Chad: Wary, postponing decision.

Contest & 'Biggest Bet' Selections ([69:12])

• Simon's biggest bet: Colts +3 early, Jets +7 if possible, Eagles -1.5 ("can't stop betting it").
• Notable: Emphasizes that "best numbers" sometimes come early, but listeners should try to track line moves as they prep for contests.

Parlays, Teasers, and Survivor Pool Talk ([71:05], [72:23])

• Moneyline Underdog Round Robin: Tennessee, Jets, Patriots, Colts, Vegas (no Falcons, says Simon).
• Favorite Parlay: Dallas, Cardinals, Rams, Lions, Bills.
• Survivor Pool: Narrowed down to Cardinals, Cowboys, and Ravens, using schedule lookahead to gauge future viability. Debating playing Dallas or saving for later, with a possible fan poll pending.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Simon (re: Cowboys): "Every time we touch them, we die. They are literally our black widow." ([13:03])
• Chad (on Giants at Cowboys): "I was more impressed with Dak Prescott than looking back than I even was after the game...I'm getting more and more comfortable with the Cowboys here." ([11:45])
• Simon (on Jets line movement): "It's slowly becoming a little square...but I just can't believe the public's joining us." ([22:33])
• Chad (on Chiefs-Eagles): "To me, this is about the number and about the flip...do we have such recency bias that we're forgetting it's Patrick Mahomes...?" ([41:15])
• Simon: On Eagles as his square Hill-to-die-on pick: "I just can't get over this number...books giving too much respect, professionals giving too much respect to Mahomes." ([42:19])
• Chad (on Week 2 overreactions): "This episode is all about overreactions–in the market, in media, and in the contest lines." (Paraphrased throughout show)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Wise Guy Hotline & Games Pros Disagree On: [01:49]
• Giants at Cowboys Deep Dive: [10:05] – [17:54]
• Bears at Lions: [18:29] – [20:40]
• Bills at Jets: [21:47] – [25:40]
• Seahawks at Steelers: [26:54] – [30:08]
• Rams at Titans (Brass Balls Bet): [30:59] – [35:01]
• Denver at Indy: [35:46] – [39:27]
• Chiefs at Eagles (Main Event): [40:15] – [47:11]
• Falcons at Vikings: [51:06] – [55:41]
• Dolphins at Patriots: [57:31] – [64:49]
• Bengals at Jags: [65:05] – [68:44]
• Contest & Biggest Bets This Week: [69:12]
• Parlay/Survivor Discussion: [71:05] – [76:10]
• Final Riff, Sharp vs Square Contest: [77:15]

Summary Table: Top Bets and Leans (as of Thursday)

| Matchup | Spread | Hosts' Lean | Notable Notes/Quotes | |------------------|--------------|---------------------|---------------------------------------------| | Giants @ Cowboys | -5 DAL | Cowboys (reluctant) | "Our black widow." (Simon) | | Bears @ Lions | -6 DET | Pass/Bears buy-low | Waiting for better number | | Bills @ Jets | +6.5 NYJ | Jets | "Sharp, but...public is joining us." | | Seahawks @ PIT | +3 SEA | Seahawks | Steelers "overvalued" after high scoring W1 | | Rams @ Titans | +5.5 TEN | Titans | "Brass balls pick, again." | | Broncos @ Colts | +1.5 IND | Colts (early only) | "Best of number is gone, lean pass" | | Chiefs @ Eagles | -1.5 PHI | Eagles (disagree) | "Sharp side Chiefs, but I'm square here." | | Falcons @ MIN | -3 MIN | Simon: Vikings | Not a consensus top five pick | | Dolphins @ NE | +1.5 MIA | Simon: Patriots | Miami offensive line a problem | | Bengals @ Jags | -3.5 JAX | Watching | Concerning Burrow early ATS trend |

Closing Thoughts

Throughout, Chad and Simon emphasize shaping their card around value and market movement, resisting "chasing" bad numbers, and constantly evaluating their own biases versus public sentiment. Against an early-season landscape full of overreactions, their goal is to stay patient, sharp, and, if necessary, intentionally 'square' when the situation justifies it. Their signature contest picks and survivor pool planning echo this disciplined approach.

For real-time Sunday contest picks or updated lines, tune in to the Sharp or Square YouTube channel, or follow on your podcast platform of choice.

"We will panic, make human decisions, regret the rest of the day..." (Chad, [77:37])

Listen to next: Sunday morning for contest locks and final leans!