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Sharp or Square
Chad Millman & Simon Hunter's NFL Week 1 BEST bets: Cowboys-Eagles, Steelers-Jets, Lions-Packers and more
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- [00:01]
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- [00:30]
Colin Coward
This is Colin Coward from the Colin coward podcast on Fox 1. Now you can stream your favorite live sports so you can be there live for the biggest moments. That means NFL Sundays and college football games, NASCAR Major League Baseball, postseason and more. With Fox 1 you get it all. Live, edgier seat plays, high octane moments and that feeling like you're right there in the action. Fox 1 We live for live streaming now.
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- [02:00]
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- [02:21]
Chad Millman
Free.
- [02:21]
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- [02:31]
Chad Millman
Sharp or Square, part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman I am joined by my co host, my bff, my companion, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter.
- [02:53]
Simon Hunter
Hello Simon. Chad. I'm liking our new digs dude.
- [02:58]
Chad Millman
Look at us brother. We got a brand new title, Sharper Square. Brand new graphics, brand new home, brand new YouTube channel. Go subscribe to the Sharp or Square YouTube channel. You can get the shows on YouTube in the afternoons before they drop into audio feeds. That's important when getting the best of the number. Again that is Sharper Square on YouTube. Go subscribe like the video while you are at it. Of course you will be able to get the show in your audio feeds. It's going to be dropped directly into the herd feed. You can also subscribe to Sharper Square through Apple, through Spotify, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. Dude, we loved our time at Action. We loved doing the favorites. But I gotta tell you I'm feeling re energized by this new show. I could feel it yesterday on our call planning today's show. How you feeling?
- [04:01]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, just insane timing. I'm sure you had the same thing which is a lot going on and now we have a new show. We have week one brother and I'm really excited just to dive back in.
- [04:11]
Chad Millman
Yeah look for those who are new to the show and I don't know how many people there are that are new to the show. I've been a sports journalist and media exec for 25 years. I've been covering the gambling space for that long starting with my Simon as you know best selling book the Odds. I also helped launch the Action Network where Simon and I used to be until recently. Simon is a professional better with more than a decade experience betting the NFL. Together we take entirely different approaches to find consensus over the course of the week of our shows for five games that we want to put in into our pick em contest you can come along for the ride. As we debate, we cajole, we support, we ridicule. Tuesday shows air at 1:30pm Eastern on YouTube covers the entire slate of games. Thursday show also at 1:30 discusses a narrower set of games as we see injuries get reported as lines start to move. As we get more intel from the wise guy and professional betting community, we're zeroing in on those. We will do a short show Sunday mornings at 11am for those who have been with us for years. You know that like Simon and I will talk about the picks that we ultimately decide to settle on our five favorite picks for our contests on Sunday morning. We're basically going to Broadcast that conversation at 11am so you're going to hear as we go back and forth and try to keep ourselves from making bad, impulsive decisions. And then we will do our wrap up show. Look ahead line show on Sundays after the late afternoon games and before Monday Sunday night football begins. We'll do that 7:30pm Eastern. Again, all that's going to be on the Sharper Square YouTube channel. You got to subscribe and on your favorite audio platforms. As you said, our lives have been nutty the past few days. As we wrapped up our time with action, I moved my kid into his dorm at Maryland. The very next morning, took a quick trip to Costa Rica for the book I'm reporting. But here we are. We've made it and we've been waiting for the season to start long enough. Let's get into it, my brother. Here we go. Thursday night. Dude, crazy, crazy. Dallas plus eight and a half at Philly. You're wearing, you're wearing the green today. Look, we talked a lot about this game back in the spring. We loved the Cowboys. I bet the Cowboys a plus seven. I bet the Cowboys on the money line at plus 240. We were bought in on Dak coming back on a offensive line that was being healthier, a defensive line that was being healthier. We thought there was general anti sentiment, public sentiment and on the Cowboys and inflation and the Eagles. Dude, in the last 24 hours, this line has gone from seven and a half to eight and a half. What, the actual freak?
- [07:23]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it's, it's pretty amazing that Parsons is worth two points to this Cowboys team.
- [07:28]
Chad Millman
Two points. It's nuts. When I was working on the script yesterday, I was like, all right, he's worth one point. That is a ton. This line has steamed to two points. It's freaking nuts. And I can't see any other reason it's happening other than the Parsons news and people just thinking there's complete and total chaos, you know, inside the Cowboys locker room right now. Normally that would be a spot where we're even more encouraged to play the Cowboys.
- [07:58]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. Pretty crazy that the bookmakers are kind of telling us that Parsons worth two points and the fact that they have to move it to protect against all these teasers. Right. That's the first thing that jumped out to me is, you know, talk to a couple guys. I'm like, why is this moving so fast? And the reveal was the public came in, the professionals came in and they had no other option to go to eight and a half. So I mean, and like you said, first, first thought is I can't believe part is worth two points. So I'm sure that shocked you as much as it shocked me.
- [08:23]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I can. Like we've been talking about the, the Eagles all training camp and they've looked so good, right? Jalen Carter has been as good as he has been in his career in two seasons and we both bet him 20 to 1 on defensive player of the year. And we like how Howie Roseman built that team and we like their draft picks and they've gotten even better in the defensive backfield. And you know, you've got Jalen Hurts as your number two overall quarterback and all. That's amazing. So I do think there's been a lot of energy around the Eagles that's been pushing this number up even before Parsons was traded when people thought he might have been continuing to play with the Cowboys. And just the whole that would end aggressive, aggressive move at eight and a half. I don't know how we don't back the Cowboys here. Like this number's kind of gotten out of control.
- [09:18]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it's a rare opportunity, right? It's Dak as an eight and a half point dog. So it's not that it feels like a no brainer. Right? There's, there's reasons it's this high. Right? The glaring weakness of this Dallas team was their run defense last year. And yes, they just traded for a D tackle and that's a big deal to help that. But that's the question. But the Eagles have their own questions, Chad. And that's why I think there is value where their number two corner is a big question mark. It's someone they just traded for three weeks ago. That's how bad their second corner position's been. So, you know, to me, this type of game where we're really betting on matchups and you know, eight and a half, that's a lot of wiggle room. That's a lot of wiggle room for a back door. Especially where we know the weakness of this Eagles team is probably going to be that secondary. So, you know, for me it's a lot to be banking on Pickens and this new offense here. But you know, Shimer, he's been taking a lot of shit, but I think that this is actually a nice spot for him and they're kind of a team that everyone's turned into a joke and they're piling on and lucky for us is now up to eight and a half. So I don't know if it'll be in our contest. But I, I, I do like this one. Just betting it at eight and a half. It's a good number.
- [10:25]
Chad Millman
Simon, new show, same contrarian views. I love it. The uglier the better. There's going to be a whole lot of that today. Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers. This is the Brazil game. Chargers are three point dogs. Pretty much painted three. It was Chiefs two and a half. It's moved up a tick. I don't really have an opinion on this one, to be honest. Like Mahomes at less than 3 or as a dog, I'm still inclined to take it even though it didn't work out for us in the Super Bowl. The Chargers defense is fierce. I think we're only guessing at this point about Kansas City and how much they've improved their offensive line. I like Justin Herbert more than you do. As a contest play, this is a pass. As a bet, this is kind of a pass. I don't know if you have a strong opinion.
- [11:18]
Simon Hunter
I do. I'm shocked you don't like this one. To me it's, it's the repertune. Right? It's Herbert as a dog that might grow higher than three at three and a half. You have to anyone listening to this if you have a contest that you can get three and a half. I feel like this might have to be an autoplay for everyone out there listening to the show. And it's really strictly based off of what we've seen with Herbert. Herbert does not win these games. I agree with Chat that if this is three or below, I would not take them. But we see it time and time again. Anytime he's a three and a half point dog against competition, people view better than him. He covers, he's a cover machine in his exact spot. So you know, just going through his career record. So three and a half point dog or more. He's 11 and two and one against the spread. 11, two and one Chad. So it's like this is, this is the Herbert window where you want Herbert again. There's other spots we'll back Herbert but this is really ones that jump out to me is every time he is three and a half dog or more, it's been a cash cow again. 11 two on one people. So this is one where I'm with you. Like because it's in Brazil, I was a little, a little hesitant with it. But I think that actually benefits this team more than with the Chiefs and the fact that it's an even playing field. Right. There is no home Field advantage. The Chargers at home, let's be honest. So to me, it's beneficial for them to be on a neutral field like this is. And if you get to that magic number, that key number three and a half with Herbert, don't think about it, just take it. He, he'll lose. He will lose. He will get outplayed, I'm sure in the fourth quarter. Like we know the deal, right? Chad, he'll have a 10 point lead and he'll somehow. They'll lose by 13 in the fourth quarter. Right. And that's just, that's Herbert's problem. So, you know, to me, I wouldn't touch the money line. Maybe we will. I don't know. It's a little early in the week, but just strictly betting right now. I'm waiting for the three and a half to pop. A couple of books have touched three and a half. I've hit it. They've gone back down to three. I'm hoping we get back there by game time because again, it's a standalone game. The public will be betting this chief side.
- [13:11]
Chad Millman
All right, well, it's not at three and a half right now. I love the logic. Get it to three and a half and then take the three and a half. As it stands right now, it might get there, but that's still a big move. And it, you know, for most of us mortals who aren't up in the middle of the night watching the lines move from three to three and a half, it might never be a possibility if we can get it in the contest. Play fantastic. The three and a half is definitely on the table. Personally, I feel like we're going to find so many games that we like. I mean, we've got a full slate that we like more. But I'm put, I'm putting the Chargers on the board for a deeper conversation when we get to it on Thursday. See how things evolve between now and then this next game. We've touched on this a couple times during the preseason. The Las Vegas Raiders visiting the New England Patriots. The Patriots are two and a half point favorites. This line has moved from three to two and a half. And I feel like that's indicative of how you and I have been thinking about the Raiders and of how the market is starting to think about the Raiders and the combination of Pete Carroll and Ashton Genty and Brock Bowers and the idea that Max Crosby is coming back and, and like there has been so much hype about the Patriots and Drake May and his development and Mike Vrabel all of a sudden like the professional community is starting to think a little bit more about who the Raiders are, what they can be. We both bet them as an over six and a half. One of our best bets in our preseason betting menu at two and a half. Are we still backing them?
- [15:04]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. Raiders. I'm worried Chad. We're too close. That's my fear right now is that we, we are too close to it. And this one also feels too easy. Right. I had a plus three that's thought we'd be at this is another game where it's like I thought public would just keep hyping up Drake May who I keep saying he was one in nine last year and this, this really does remind me of the whole Fields discussion. Right. People are just basing their prediction of this upcoming season on Drake Mayoff potential. And I, I agree it's exciting right. They got Drake, man, they got Rabel. But that's something that's like season long potential. This isn't week one potential. So I think we're both on the same page of Pete Carroll. The veteran head coach with a veteran quarterback to me is a much better position than a young quarterback with a ton of hype and the veteran coach in Vrabel where it's like I like Vrabel obviously for long term for the rest of the season but it's gone too far. And when this was minus three that felt way too much of a respect to Vrabel in this Patriots team. Right. That was way too much respect. And so now most books have been hit like you just said by professionals. It's down to two and a half. Are we going to force this bet in? I don't think so. Like to me if this state three it went to three and a half. Me and Chad would really like this one. Maybe make it a contest play. But two and a half. I'll still take Raiders Sunday most likely even if it doesn't get back to three. But I'm not going to force this one here. We're going to have opportunities on this Raiders team. It doesn't need to be week one here. I'm happy to be patient on this Raiders team and pick spots later on.
- [16:35]
Chad Millman
I am trying to teach myself this season. You know, I've been reporting this book and spending a freak load of time with professional betters and also doing a lot of self scouting. I went through every pick I've made on NFL sides since 2017. I broke down when I do well. When I don't do well. What I fall Prey to when I seem to win games. What are the patterns? The best way to make money is to not lose money. And so I'm trying to be really disciplined about the picks I make and the numbers I chase and not getting too excited about what I think is the right side. If the number isn't matching that at two and a half, it starts to make me feel like I'm willing this to happen. Instead of being thoughtful about the bet, I would like it to get back to three. I don't think it's going to get there.
- [17:33]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, again, two and a half. I still think it's a. That's a fine number. Like, I make this game literally one and a half. So I still think there's one point value on this Raiders team, but you just nailed it. It's. We're trying to make money long term here and get the best of the number. The three is the best number. Don't. Don't force. Don't force it here on the two and a half because there's plenty of times where this game does land on Patriots winning by three.
- [17:52]
Chad Millman
You know what I'm doing there, Simon? I'm taking a professional attitude and a professional approach to my betting for the 2025 NFL season. I say all that because, I don't know, I might just toss it to the wind on this next one. Cleveland plus five and a half, hosting the Cincinnati Bengals. Oh, my God, Simon. I know my lean without giving it away. My question is, what do we have to believe in order to buy into the Browns?
- [18:32]
Simon Hunter
Simon says, give me the browns.
- [18:35]
Chad Millman
Come on, come on.
- [18:38]
Simon Hunter
Gotta do it, dude.
- [18:39]
Chad Millman
We got a whole new segment on the show. Chad loves love. Everyone knows I'm a romantic. You know, I've been married forever. Beautiful wife, kids that I love who are no longer in the house because they've decided to abandon us and go live their lives and spend all their time going to fucking darties. But you know what a dartie is, Simon?
- [19:01]
Simon Hunter
A party.
- [19:02]
Chad Millman
It's a day party. That's what in college they call day parties. Darties. So all I'm hearing about this weekend is darties at the University of Maryland campus. But this was going to be my Chad loves love bet.
- [19:17]
Simon Hunter
I'll give it to you if you want. I got other ones I can fire on, but this one jumped out to me just because I think this number is moving.
- [19:22]
Chad Millman
I may. I might want it at some point, but let me see how we go through the rest of the board. Give me. Give me your take. Because, like, I Wanted to marry this bet.
- [19:30]
Simon Hunter
The reason I love this spot so much, Chad, is just as the week one home underdog and that's why I love the Browns in this exact spot. So week one divisional home underdogs are 23 and seven against the spread since 2010. They are 10 and two since 2018 and 18 and four since 2012. Thank you, Evan Abrams. I love that stat so much about divisional home underdogs. And it's. It's the money maker, right? It's the public overrating road favorite that just happens to play against a divisional team. We talk all the time. Divisional teams just play weird. I know Joe Burrow actually has done pretty well against the Browns here these last couple years, but this is a really bad spot. Right. This is a fully healthy Browns team that actually believes in themselves. This isn't. This is week 10 Browns and they were 1 and 9. We'd be betting this different. This is even in their minds they can make up, maybe be a 7 seed. So to me, the Browns are going to be playing hard. And this number should be three. Three and a half. Public has bet this up to five, five and a half, six. We love that free value. So yeah, this is obviously one of my favorite bets on the board and a bet I've been betting all summer.
- [20:33]
Chad Millman
Yeah, look, I think that where you're getting the Joe Burrow effect on this game, right. The Browns defense we know is dominant. The Bengals offensive line was one of the worst offensive lines in football last year. And then the Bengals did absolutely zero. In fact, they might have made it worse. So if there's a worse number than 32, the Brown. The Bengals are now the negative 32, best, worst offensive line in the NFL. Then you've got all the drama with Trey Hendrickson that even if he has signed his deal, what kind of shape is he going to be in? How long will it take him to get back into playing shape? You had all the drama with Shemar Stewart, who I'm not sold is really an answer to anything on the defensive line for the Bengals. Their defense was terrible also and the best thing they've really done is add Al golden as a defensive coordinator. So I just think there's holes all over this team and they think they can be papered over with Joe Burrow, Jamar Chase and T. Higgins and they can't. And they're going against one of the best pass rushes and one of the best pass rushers in a generation. Give me the Browns plus five and a half. I can't see how this is not a contest play this is a Simon says. It may be a Chad loves love. Unless I can find something better to convince Simon to take. As the Simon says, old habits die hard.
- [22:06]
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- [22:36]
Colin Coward
This is Colin Coward from the Colin coward podcast on Fox 1. Now you can stream your favorite live sports so you can be there live for the biggest moments. That means NFL Sundays and college football games, nascar, Major League Baseball, postseason and more. With Fox one you get it all live edge of your seat plays, high octane moments and that feeling like you're right there in the action. Fox 1 We live for live streaming.
- [23:04]
Chad Millman
Now.
- [23:07]
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- [24:05]
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- [24:21]
Chad Millman
Plus 5 and a half Arizona at New Orleans plus 6 and a half I don't really have a ton of thoughts on this game. Like maybe Arizona, maybe the Saints. Get into our Moneyline underdog round robin when we talk about it on Thursday. It's been about a full point of line movement since lines open started at five and a half. Has gone up to six and a half. Really just bets coming in and money coming in on Arizona. Got any thoughts here? Like Spencer Rattler is the Saint starter. I just don't have enough faith that the Cardinals can go on the road and win by a touchdown.
- [25:05]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I agree with your point that this number just feels way too big at this point and that they're, they're trying to get us to bet the Saints team. So I'd rather go the other way. I'll take Kyler first half and you know, I assume that he'll somehow falter this in the second half and they'll somehow cover this number because this will be one of the book's biggest needs. Right. No one's betting the Saints. No. No one is going in there and taking a position and everybody's probably throwing in their 45 team teaser on the back end. This Cardinals team and this is to me too fishy. I don't know why they would do that to me. I, I trusting Kyler this big of a number, especially in week one, just not a smart bet. It's way too big. And you know, if, if we had, I would say if this got up to seven, I would be more confident in playing contest or thinking about putting in just because at that point that's way too much respect to a Cardinals team that doesn't deserve it. And disrespect to a Saints thing we talked about. They're a veteran team. Right. They're just really bad the quarterback position. So the, the value there is not there for me yet to play the Saints team. I like I said, I feel safer taking Kyler first half. The books will get me there eventually. If this reaches seven and seven and a half on Sunday morning, I'll be tempted to throw some money at it. But no, like this is not going to be one of our five, that's for sure.
- [26:20]
Chad Millman
I am so bad at making bets on Sunday morning. In terms of my historical record, almost all of my wins come the first three days of the week. Every game I bet in the first three days a week I do so much better than I do when we get to Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday. I need to be disciplined this year. I can't be making silly bets on Sunday morning because I'm getting excited about a half point. Discipline and focus, Simon. That's what I do. New York Giants at Washington Commanders. The Commanders are now six point favorites. Look, we've talked about this all season. In a previous iteration of our show, we don't love the Commanders. Like under nine and a half wins was one of my favorite season win total bets. We expect some natural regression. Not a knock on Jaden Daniels at all. It's just the natural order of things. The problem is we think the Giants are trash and we went through their schedule, we could not find five wins to get them over four and a half wins. I know this is a big divisional dog, but this is a, to me, a little bit of a different scenario because I do think the Commanders are better overall than say the Bengals. And I think that the Giants traveling makes this a little bit sketchier. To me it has dropped from seven to six and a half to six. So we know wise guys have been coming in on the Giants. We've missed the best of it.
- [28:01]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And I actually love the commanders here and I, I talk to those wise guys, I get their reasoning for it. My pushback against them is that Commanders with Jaden Daniels is the perfect type of quarterback to neutralize a good defensive line like they have. Right. And you know, say what you want. Last year in that MC championship game, they didn't lose because of Daniels against that Eagles team. Right. That was not on him. It felt like it was a lot of the other stuff where he had guys around him fumbling the ball and his defense not able to get stop. You look here in this matchup, that's the strength of this Giants team is that D line. Again, he's the perfect guy to neutralize that. They're going to be able to get him outside the pocket and attack that D line in different ways. So this number has moved to five and a half, Chad. So like I really like it. But it's very interesting that that much respect and professional money has come in this heavy on this Giants. He moved to this much. So to me, they're kind of banking heavily here on Russell Wilson and him being, you know, much more consistent. And they're also looking at the history the Giants, you know, for the Daniel Jones era, they owned this Washington team. I just think that's totally off basis. Those are totally two different teams and this Washington team has a totally different identity. So I know that last year they did play them tough and I remember we were, we had the Giants in that game. The Giants, if they just had simply had a kicker, would have probably won the game outright. So I get why they're going back to that tape and thinking that the Giants have the players to make me get this type of stops and be able to keep them in this game. And keep them is a close one. And I can't believe I don't love them as a divisional road dog here, but I think Chad nailed it. Like, this number moved too much. I think it could literally land right on six. And to me, if you're getting the five and a half, which a lot of books have right now, that's the play. That's the move for me on this Washington team.
- [29:43]
Chad Millman
All right, so I'm putting this on the board as a revisit because I agree with you. At five and a half, it starts to all of a sudden become. Wait a second. What? Like, Russell Wilson hasn't been effective in two years. This is not a team that has proven it can execute against a home team and a guy who's already a top 10 quarterback.
- [30:08]
Simon Hunter
And Russell Wilson. Russell Wilson, 2 and 6 against the spread in week one.
- [30:12]
Chad Millman
Yeah, it's going to be tough again to pass that one at less. At less than 6. But I'm curious, like, you know, we'll get some calls from wise guys on Thursday and so we'll see what some of the thinking is on that and if they can change our minds on this game. Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars. Dude, Jaguars are three and a half point favorites right now. We love the Panthers always. Full stop. This is a Carolina Panthers podcast. We loved their season win total of over six and a half. We like their offensive line enough. We loved how Bryce Young was a gamer the second half of last year. Went 7 and 2 against the spread, 4 outright wins. He was just much, much better as he made decisions. He was extending plays, helping the scramble rate jump from 25% to 47%. And it wasn't just because of offensive line troubles. It was him moving in the pocket to make plays and then using his accuracy on the run. That's why we liked him. What's interesting to me is the Jags looked like trash during the preseason for parts of it. This line has moved from just in the last 24 hours from three to three and a half. So it's moved off a key number. Enough money has come in that bookmakers had to move it off a three. What do you think's going on here?
- [31:49]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, just like you were saying, it's. It's the Liam Cohen hype, right? This is all Jaguar's love. It's all good right now, right? Everyone's paying the rosiest picture. Look what he did with Baker. He'll come here, save Trevor Lawrence. Hey, Chad, you know, Trevor Lawrence was 8 and 3 at one point and one of the best quarterbacks of football before he got a slight injury. And now it's been two years of just absolute hell for that Jaguars organization. Yes, we do know and I just think it's, it's a lot of love for this Jaguars team that yes, they have talent but they have many, many weaknesses across the board on this team and lucky for them, I don't know if the Panthers can exploit those weaknesses. Right. Who on that pass rush of the Panthers is really giving you scare? If you're a Jaguars offensive line, not really much there to work with. So you know, we'll, we'll bet the three and a half. That to me is the plus three and a half. That's where the value is on the Panthers. But I'm not in love with this one. It feels like a bet I'm forcing in there just because it feels like a little bit of an off number. And you know I had this number right at three. So yes, the value is on three and a half. But I assume I'll skip putting this one the contest and maybe we'll just get that money line around Robin come Thursday.
- [32:55]
Chad Millman
Well, I'm putting it on the list because maybe things will change over the next 48 hours. I want to love the Panthers so much here. I feel like it would be irresponsible to make them a Chad loves love bet right now because that would just be torture for all of our listeners given our history with the Panthers. However, Miami visiting the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts are one and a half point favorites. Painted one and a half across the board. As my close friend Billy Joel likes to say, for the longest time. Oh, did you see that documentary?
- [33:45]
Simon Hunter
No, I must have missed that one.
- [33:46]
Chad Millman
Dude, it's amazing. It's on hbo Max five and a half hours of Billy Joel who is just straight crazier than you would think. But this line has been at one and a half the entire summer. We're going to completely disagree on this one. I like Miami, you're going to like Indy. If TUA stays upright against a mediocre to bad defense that doesn't have a great pass rush. That's just a clear advantage to me. And I know like you are so off of Miami and I know you like Indy even more now that we know Daniel Jones is starting to. I'm not seeing it again.
- [34:25]
Simon Hunter
Chad, these are all season long thoughts. Don't try to put me into a corner here, okay? I'm talking season, baby.
- [34:32]
Chad Millman
In a corner.
- [34:33]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. So I, I, I get the Miami love to me. I'll just tease them. I'll get this up to seven and a half. That's where I'm comfortable because Miami is heavily, heavily the public side. And it's for good reason. Right. I think anyone unless you've been on Mars knows this Colts team has been trash in week one. Doesn't matter if it was Andrew Luck or Philip Rivers. It's always been bad. And I believe they're 2 and 14 straight up and against the spread in week one. 2 and 14. Tua. Pretty good. Pretty good. Week one. I don't know if you've seen his stats. He's actually two and oh straight up and against the spread in week one on the road in his career. I think he's four. No in his career and week one straight up. So, yeah, do. Obviously week one on the road in a hostile environment. He's done really well. I get Chad's love for it. I, I'll, I'll join him. But again, in a teaser, I would not play the one and a half just because it just feels way too risky. It just both these teams, like you just said, Daniel Jones, I don't know what I'm getting, but I know it's getting better than Anthony Richardson and in this exact spot. I know I hate saying they're due, but my God, are they due, Chad, to cover a week one spread. 2 and 14. I can't wrap my head around the last 16 years. So, yeah, Miami, I'm not letting you put them in our contest. It's too public. But for a teaser. I like it. Seven and a half.
- [36:05]
Chad Millman
Right until that last comment, I'm like, all right, I feel like we got a chance here with Miami. And I agree. It's so public. As with a nod to our new show. It's pretty square and I love it so much. If you hadn't have just said all that stuff, I might have to marry this.
- [36:31]
Simon Hunter
Bet I could get there. Gusan. The biggest weakness of this cold seams are secondary. The biggest strength of Miami is their passing attack. Right. With Tyreek and Waddle, who are both healthier right now. So I get what you're loved for it. I'm just. Man, why is this number not moved at all? And it's just been taking money, taking money, taking money for the last five months. So it's. That's what's scaring me, brother.
- [36:54]
Chad Millman
Right. Like, what's the logic here? Bookmakers know they're lopsided on Miami, so why Are they not trying to change anything at this point? No one is biting. All right, all right. I still got to commit to somebody. I got to fall in love. I got to marry someone. I haven't yet other than the Browns. And you came in undercut me. Classic pit at New York Jets. New York jets plus three. I know you want to bet the Jets. I don't even have to hear you explain it. And I feel like they've got, look, they've got Quinn and Williams, dominant defensive tackle, potentially dominant corner and sauce Gardener. If he can return to what he was in his rookie year. It was a good defense before Saleh. Robert Salah got fired and they cratered. And we loved what Aaron Glenn did with the Lions when they were literally down to guys off the street. We think he can motivate this team, but we know the ceiling on Justin Fields and the Steelers know the ceiling on Justin Fields. So to me, if I think about this as a matchup and if there's a play like an advantage in the handicap, I don't really see it. Like, I don't think Aaron Rodgers is the Aaron Rodgers of old. I think he had a couple good years with LaFleur, Matt LaFleur, because he listened to Matt LaFleur, but he had a crappy year, mediocre year last year on a, you know, garbage situation. Now he's got a relatively conservative offensive coordinator. You say you don't know what you're getting in Miami and Indy. I don't really feel like I know what I'm getting in this game. And the key players and quarterback of Justin Fields and Aaron Rodgers.
- [38:45]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, you know me too well, Chad. I love the jets and it's, I love that it's season long though once again. I don't need to force it week one, but obviously I'm gonna play the three. You know me. It's. It's Tomlin on the road as a favorite. Is this not a spot? We always fade him in this exact spot. Like, this man hates to have love. He hates to be loved in this exact spot. So to me, it's a no brainer where, you know, I like that the jets identity right now to the general public is a little unknown where when you listen to insiders, you can get a really good read on this team where we know what they're going to be, right? They're going to be an extremely run heavy team and I think they will unleash Fields here in this type of matchup where you're getting the read option and he'll be carrying it pretty heavy against his former team. Again, this is going to mean a lot to him. This is a team that had him in house and let him walk. You know, that's going to, that's going to be on top of his mind. And you know, Aaron Rodgers, obviously a revenge game. It's, it's not a great matchup for him. Right. This is a defensive line that gets after the quarterback and it's going to keep on moving him off his spot, especially up the middle, which we've seen him struggle with. So, yeah, just really comes down to the number. Like if this was one and a half, I really wanted to be on Pittsburgh never got down even close to it. It's been three, two and a half, almost every book. So at three, that's, that's a Jets number. I'll take it. But like Chad said, no need to force this one. Another game where it's like I'm bend it because it feels like this is what I do. Taking these ugly home dogs in this exact spot where no one believes in them. But it's also a team that we just don't know much enough about, this jets team that my only real advantage here is that I think they're going to be able to run the ball pretty well against this Pittsburgh team the way they're going to be able to run blocks. So, yeah, really excited for this jets team this upcoming season.
- [40:29]
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- [42:29]
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- [43:00]
Chad Millman
Take it here dude, we got a couple of games coming up that I actually am pretty sweet on and I'm excited to get your opinion. It's not Tampa Bay, Atlanta. Atlanta's two and a half. It's an interesting game. Like I mentioned the Saints Cardinals game that that game had moved to full point. So is this one. Not a ton of games have moved that much. It's one of the few that has moved sort of that much. To be honest, I'm not sure I understand the move which has happened over the Excuse me, it's happened over the past week. I kind of lean Falcons at this spot in this number. You know we have Baker's a top 10 QB, but a lot of that is based on what he did last year and that was predicated on increased screen passes to help him manage the pressure. His EPA expected points added on screens was the second highest the past four seasons behind just Patrick Mahomes. Like it helped him decreases SAC rate. New offensive coordinator Again, we don't really know how they're going to utilize Baker in a screen game. To me it's really about Pennix. Can Pennix be protected? Can he stay as the football experts like to stay, like to say on schedule because if he was on schedule, meaning Clean pocket, throwing in rhythm throwing only Lamar Jackson was better in those scenarios and when he needs to run and that's with a minimum of 100 passes when he needs to scramble and he's sort of out of sync, he craters. So we kind of need to know is Michael Penix going to get protected to feel confident betting them as dogs. Love the weapons though. Love the weapons. Love this game yet.
- [44:58]
Simon Hunter
No, this is, I had to go some chalk somewhere people. This is where I'm going chalk. So I'll take bucks here. Now that it's still under three, I think that's a good number. But I'm going to read the, read this line again. This is why I'm so hesitant to really hammer this one and you know, jump on the table for it. Week one division home underdogs 23 and seven against the spread since 2010. So it is technically a spot you should be taking Atlanta. But I think they're getting too much respect here and too much disrespect to a Bucs team that, you know they're highly talented and last year against his exact Atlanta team they let a couple games get away that they shouldn't have. So I think there's going to be a highly motivated Bucks team here and I, I like this spot and a key number under three so I, I, I get the Atlanta love the trends point to it as well. I just, I can't. He's lost key guys to the offensive line and Penix cannot be moved off his spot. He struggles when he's moved off his spot so I just can't get there. With Pennix and back in Selena team.
- [45:52]
Chad Millman
Simon, you've said it a couple times this show you feel good about a team season long but it doesn't necessarily mean you like them. This weekend Tennessee is at Denver. Denver is a 7 1/2 point favorite along with the Cowboys and the Eagles. This is the biggest number on the board and this until the past 24 hours it's the only number on the board that it touched eight with the Broncos and then there was a little bit of buyback on the eight by professionals and it went back down to seven and a half. Look, Denver's defense is elite. Like depending on the category you want to focus on, it could be the best in the NFL. In this case I want to focus on pass rush which it was the best in the NFL and they have the defending defensive player of the year and Pat Certain at defensive back. Like we, we like the Titans season long and we like what we've seen from Cam Ward. You know, Chase Daniel, the. The former quarterback. I love his Tiktoks. And he has been loving Cam Ward. Don't laugh at me. I can like TikTok. And he has been loving Cam Ward and how he's been developing and what he's seen in the preseason. Number one overall quarterbacks past 161 and 15 against the spread in their first game. It's been 23 years since the number one overall pick at quarterback even won his first start. That was David Carr with the Texans, believe it or not, Simon, I covered that game for ESPN the Magazine. I know. We love Cam Ward. I'm super high in their offensive line. We love Bill Callahan. They signed the dude Kevin Seitzer from. Was that his name from the Lions? I feel like I want to be on Denver here.
- [47:51]
Simon Hunter
Chad, I can't believe you're saying that. I cannot believe you like them. This spot where this is. You don't even have to be in his sports, but, you know, this is a terrible spot. So what did, what did, you know, Bo Nix do that was so historical last year? He never lost or didn't cover as a favorite last year. I believe it was 80 or 9 0, something insane like that. On the flip side, we have a Tennessee team that went 2 and 15 against the spread, I believe, last season. So just off that alone, you are getting, what, two, three free points? Just off that of the public perception of that right there, which is like a cash cow in Denver to all these bettors and Tennessee, an easy fade for all them where it's. It's a whole new world. Like, this is totally different. This is not the same Tennessee team and it's not the same Denver team. Like, again, as much as we're all painting a rosy picture of this Denver team and hey, they might win this division, this is a tall task to ask them to cover this big of a number at home in week one with all those expectations and pressure playing against a Tennessee team that they have no worries. And Chad nailed it. The fear here is the rookie quarterback on the road in their first start. So survivor pool. Yeah. Denver layup, week one, right? I think rookies since the 1970 merger, 8 and 21 straight up in this exact spot on the road in their first start. Now, Chad mentioned the last rookie quarterback to win. You know, tons of respect, David Carr. Caleb Williams did it last year, right? Caleb Williams won as a rookie in his first start, which was a really big deal as a number one pick. It just doesn't happen right the number one picks tend to lose, and we've seen that historical data. So once again, it's another nice spot to take Denver and Survivor. But against the spread, it feels like a horrible, horrible spot to back Denver. And as bad as these rookie quarterbacks are covering the spread on the road, they're 13 of 14 against the spread in week one on the road. So, you know, this isn't that terrible spot against the spread. It's just a bad spot for him to win outright. So people out there tease Denver. I think that's a great one to throw in there. I just cannot see them losing this game. All this stuff points to Tennessee. Tennessee team losing this game but covering seven half. There's eight and a half out there, Chad. I don't know if you've seen. There's been eight and a half popping up at a couple different books and eights popping up all around. So, you know, to me, this is type of game where it's like the closer we get and if our contest has this eight and a half, how do we not play it? That's an insane number. When all the ATS stuff points to this Tennessee team being heavily underrated, Denver being heavily overrated based off last year.
- [50:27]
Chad Millman
I'm not even thinking about last season, dude. I'm only thinking about the situation for a rookie quarterback going against one of the best defenses in the NFL and one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL and having to play in altitude in an entirely different situation. That is even from what he's been practicing against and what he had in the preseason. I think the Broncos might kill them.
- [50:51]
Simon Hunter
That's fair. Again. That's fair. This Tennessee team has a lot of issues, but I still think a lot of their problems last year just went back to the quarterback position, and people are overrating too much about their defensive struggles. Their defense on Tennessee is not as bad as you think. And I think they might give some problems to Bo Nicks in this. This September offense. So I get you where your love's coming from, Chad, but I. I just think it's. It's way too, Way too high to be betting this one. Seven and a half is high.
- [51:18]
Chad Millman
Look, we're. We're going to do our annual weekly Head to Head on Thursday on Thursday show. So feels like this game might be in contention, that one of us might pick for it and one of us might pick against it. I don't need to.
- [51:40]
Simon Hunter
I wonder which one's. I wonder which one's sharp or square.
- [51:43]
Chad Millman
Yeah, exactly. We'll see. We'll see. Exactly. I don't know. I already, I'm already against the name of this new show. I feel like, by the way, we need a new bet category called SOS because, you know, that's the name of the show, but also it highlights an emergency situation and I feel like we're going to run into some of those over the course of the.
- [52:07]
Simon Hunter
I'm trying to save you right now and you're fighting me. That's all I'm going to say.
- [52:11]
Chad Millman
I can't be saved.
- [52:12]
Simon Hunter
You can't. You got to just, you got to go into it, don't you?
- [52:15]
Chad Millman
I am just a lost cause. There's just going to be times where I can't help myself. Houston at the Rams. Lean Rams moved actually in the last 24 hours from 2 and a half to 3. No strong opinion here.
- [52:28]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, let's keep it moving. I, I, I'm with Chad. Like I want to be on the Rams, but it's just, there's just so much little to go off here. And yeah, to me it's under three. That's a good number. I'll take the Rams, but I'm with you, Chad. Maybe I'll have more confidence come Thursday. But right now I have again, I have thousands of bets people for week one. You wouldn't want to see my binder filled with tickets right now. This game is so small, I bet so little on it because of all the injuries to Houston's team, all the injuries to this Rams and all the questions around Stafford. So yeah, two and a half. I'll take the Rams. I'm with Chad. I just don't have a real read on it as we sit here on Tuesday.
- [53:04]
Chad Millman
Guess what? Are you ready?
- [53:07]
Simon Hunter
Yes, sir.
- [53:10]
Chad Millman
The biggest move of the off season, Detroit Lions are heading to Green Bay. They were one and a half point favorites. The line moved a month ago to favor the packers at one and a half. Since the Micah Parsons News, it has gone to two and a half. Like on our old show. We talked about liking Detroit more and more as training camp went on and finding value and wanting to like them at + 145 to win the division again. This was all before the Micah Parsons News and we started to like them as one and a half point dogs. Now they are two and a half point dogs thanks to the Micah Parsons trade. Again, a point of value being ascribed to Micah Parsons. Let me tell you a story. So Micah Parsons was traded at about five o' clock on Thursday. I went back and I looked to see when the exact line moved happened, it was 5:07pm at that time, I literally just said goodbye to my son after we had moved him into his dorm and we were walking away and we are like barely functioning walking to our car. Our son and his new roommate were, you know, probably 15 steps ahead of us. We just happened to be walking the same direction, but they were ahead of us. And his new roommate is a huge packers fan and I had been giving him shit the entire day that we were moving in about the packers, right? And as we are all walking away, my son, who's ahead of us, turns around and says to me, dad, the packers just traded for Micah Parsons. This was just after 5pm and the roommate starts going crazy and saying wildly inappropriate shit to someone who is an elder. But I look at the. When the line move happened, 5:07pm you can think like exactly when Parsons was traded, that's when the line went from one and a half to two and a half. Simon, I'm going to tell you right now, there are reports that he's going to need an injection to play. Chad loves. Love. Chad loves the Detroit Lions at plus two and a half.
- [55:56]
Simon Hunter
I will say this, Chad, I want to hate it. I won't lie to you. I do want to hate it. I want to go against it because this is going to be the most lopsided game and I feel like it's such a sucker where I have. I probably have 50 teasers and about half of them have the lines in there at seven and a half and now it's at eight and a half. Now, like, it's even better to throw them in a teaser. But if you're going off just strictly against the spread, this is why I love Lions with you. And I'm like, again, it's hard for me to go against Green Bay in the spot because this is such a Green Bay spot. But Dan Campbell, 11 and three against the spread in September. That's pretty incredible golf. Our guy eight, zero against the spread. Week one, eight and O against the spread. And. And even better, he's four and oh, straight up and against the spread with the Rams. And he's 4. 0 against the spread with the line. So it's like this guy just does. It doesn't matter if he was with the Rams. He came to Detroit and they were terrible when he came here. And he's still been a cover machine in week one. So I don't get it. I don't get it. I dove into the numbers and it's like Who. Who is. Because again, I know some professionals who have put six figures now onto the screen Bay team. And this is before the Parsons news. Like, they've been taking a position for months on this Green Bay team. Even with all the, you know, love hurting his non throwing hand and, you know, the. The. The. All the wide receivers being hurt again, Golden's a great in camp for them, but all their other receivers around him have been either injured or falling apart. I couldn't be lower on this packers team coming this season because I was high coming in and it was just so negative in camp. It really made me doubt them. But it's. It really is the little floor factor. Right. I think that's why people love this packers team so much. In the spot where The packers, they're 53 against the spread since 2019 in their first three games. They're 7 and oh against the spread in that. In that stretch at Lambeau. So it's all there. Like, the trends are telling you that this is a spot to back this gray Green Bay team at home, but we just went through it. This Lions team with Campbell and golf had been incredible in September and especially in the week one. So, man, this is a tough one. And I'm going to support my guy here, Chad. Even though it feels insanely trappy, I'm with him. I think the. It's. The books are overreacting too much. The loss of the coordinators, the talent level is still very high for Detroit and, you know, we'll see, like Green Bay again. They might be better down the road, but that portion, I'm with you. That threw a real wrench into the soul thing where it's like he's getting a shot in his back before this game. So I'll join. I'll take that two and a half with the signs.
- [58:36]
Chad Millman
All right, now we are freaking talking. Now we are on the same page. Now we are finding our rhythm.
- [58:44]
Simon Hunter
I'm gonna get a lot of calls about this one.
- [58:45]
Chad Millman
Oh, we are gonna get so many calls about this one. I cannot wait. But we're gonna stand our ground. We have gone against the wise guy community before and it has worked out well for us. There is just not enough respect for this Lions team. There's one other team that's getting woefully disrespected that we're gonna talk about, but I'm glad to see we're on the same page. I'm glad to see we're starting to narrow down our five that we love for a contest. Baltimore At Buffalo. Buffalo's a one and a half point favorites. We can agree that I think Baltimore and the Eagles might have the best all around rosters in the NFL. The Bills opened at one and a half. Money kind of flowed into Baltimore. The market moved it to one. Now it's sort of everywhere between pick and one and a half and I'm a little bit lost on this game. If I can get the one and a half, I really want to back Baltimore, I think they're the better overall team. There's always going to be a little bit of more hype on the reigning mvp. That's a narrative that people want to bet into if they are public betters. Baltimore to me feels like the play here.
- [60:03]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. Well, let's put ball out tomorrow and we'll talk more of this about this one on Thursday. For right now I'm with Chad that I think this is a big advantage to this, this Baltimore team. I think they're the better team on paper. My favorite part too is that their last time they were in this exact spot was them losing the playoffs on a heartbreaking drop by, you know, a tight Andrew Thompson, tight end Mark Andrews. Mark Andrews. And that's a big deal. Like, you know, that's, that's something that's hung about them. They've trained all off season thinking about that with the Bills, they're thinking about the Chiefs. They're not thinking about this Ravens team like that. So yeah, again a game I think we'll dive way more to on Thursday. But right now I want to talk to more people. But I'm with Chad. Like this one feels very easy on this Ravens side and you know, I have this at a pick. I could get the minus one of the Ravens, I'm sure. Like I'm going to really dive into it more but to me I just think this is a good value on this, especially at plus one and a half. That's great value on the scraping side.
- [60:54]
Chad Millman
All right. Speaking of disrespectful, Minnesota Chicago Bears. The Chicago Bears are home dogs of one and a half points on Monday night with a visiting quarterback who is essentially a rookie, JJ McCarthy who missed all of last season in prime time in his first game. Like last year, the Bears were overinflated because of Caleb Hike hype. But, but this is insanity. Explain this to me, Simon. Explain this to me as if I'm not a die hard Bears fan who is thinking about this game constantly and is so looking forward to it just.
- [61:38]
Simon Hunter
From a fan perspective. Chad, I'll tell you this is that we don't trust Caleb Williams. I think that's like the first part of it where when I'm looking at betting this side, that was like my hardest part is getting over everything I saw last year from Caleb. Again, that's not all in Caleb that was on the coaching staff and how they failed him in many ways. And then it's a question of your head coaching position. It's like, I like this guy a lot. I love what he's going to do for your team going forward. But in week one, I'm going to give the advantage to this Viking staff that have been together that, you know, their biggest change is obviously at the quarterback position, which is a big one. But the Bears, this is all new. This is a new defensive scheme, it's a new offensive scheme. There's a lot of moving parts and there might be some really hard growing pains for this team. Especially you have Caleb going against Brian Flores, one of the best defensive coordinators in football. So I would say that is why they've made them a dog. But I'm with you. It's like J.J. mcCarthy is a favorite in his first start on the road in divisional game. Get at it in prime time on Monday Night Football.
- [62:38]
Chad Millman
Are you kidding me?
- [62:40]
Simon Hunter
So I'm with you like I'm back in this Bears team. But I would say from the public perspective, that is why I guess people are betting this Vikings team and they're getting the respect as a favor right now. But I'm right there with you. I could not believe, I mean, months ago when this opened up and they were a favorite on the road Vikings in this exact spot. So yeah, it's, it's. Once again, it's the, it's the off season hype, right? People are thinking themselves, well, if Sam Darnold could get this team to 14 and do imagine what JJ McCarthy can do if he's just, you know, half the quarterback we think he can be with the potential he has coming out of Michigan. So the hype is peak right now for this Vikings team and you're right where you want to be if you're a Bears fan. You're being counted out already an underdog week one at home. So I think this is a nice spot in this primetime game for this Bears team.
- [63:24]
Chad Millman
Simon, you know, like a bunch of my buddies will send me money before the season starts and I will, as I like to say, invest the money wisely over the course of the season. And I will give our investment group a new name every year normally related to the Bears. Last year it was Caleb Kinkash. Not a great year for the Caleb Kinkash Investment group. This year, the name, it's all about the Ben Jamin Johnson.
- [64:01]
Simon Hunter
I see what you did there.
- [64:02]
Chad Millman
See what I did there. I feel like we got a great roster of games that we're narrowing down and digging in on. The Bears, the Lions, the Ravens, the Browns, maybe the Cowboys, maybe the Panthers, maybe the Commanders. This is good. I like where we're headed and when we get to Thursday, we're going to talk about your biggest bet of the week. We're going to go head to head. We're going to have our favorite calls from our favorite wise guys. We're going to have a very ballsy bet. We're going to have one more special bet for all of our listeners new and old Thursday 1:30pm Eastern on YouTube. We are Sharper Square, part of the Volume Podcast Network. Like I said, 1:30 Thursday afternoon we'll be zeroing in on some of the picks we love the most. Listen, Apple Pods, Spotify. Wherever you get your podcasts, find the Sharp or Square feed. It's also going to be posted into the Her Feedback directly into the Herb feed. You can get it from both places, but definitely subscribe to the Sharper Square feed. Obviously subscribe to Sharper Square on YouTube. Like the videos comment if you'd like to do that. You know we love when people rate when they review because feedback is always a gift. Until next time. Love you.
- [66:01]
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- [66:28]
Colin Coward
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- [66:59]
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- [67:59]
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- [68:21]
Chad Millman
Free.
- [68:21]
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