Podcast Summary: Sharp or Square — NFL Week 1 Best Bets (Sept 3, 2025)

Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Main Theme:
Chad Millman (betting journalist/executive) and Simon Hunter (professional bettor) kick off their debut episode of "Sharp or Square," dissecting the NFL Week 1 slate. They debate which sides the wise guys are on, which bets look sharp or “square,” upcoming line movements, and set out to identify their favorite contest picks for the week.

Episode Structure

• Quick intro of the new show/format [02:31–04:10]
• Game-by-game discussion: lines, bet leans, market movement, professional perspectives
• Occasional insertion of special (humorous) bet categories: “Simon Says,” “Chad Loves Love”
• Strategic and data-driven betting commentary throughout
• Running short list of candidate bets for contest entry

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Show/Format Changes and Introduction

[02:31–04:10]

• Chad heralds the new brand and platform: "Sharp or Square."
• Show timeline: Tuesday (full slate), Thursday (narrowed picks), Sunday (final picks), Lookahead line wrap-up.
• Personal updates from both: Chad just moved his kid into college and went to Costa Rica for book research; both express newfound energy around this new chapter.
• Philosophy: Contrarian views, consensus-building over five contest picks, riding the line between square and sharp.

Game-by-Game Breakdown

Dallas Cowboys (+8.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

[04:10–10:24]

• Chad: "We loved the Cowboys at +7 and on the moneyline at +240" but stunned at line move from 7.5 to 8.5 due to Parsons news.
• Simon: "Parsons worth two points to this Cowboys team. ...That's the first thing that jumped out to me..." [07:23]
• Both note the Eagles' defensive upgrades but see value on a ‘backdoor cover’ for Dallas.
• Conclusion: Lean Cowboys at +8.5 (“uglier the better,” serious contest consideration).

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers (+3)

[10:24–13:10]

• Brazil neutral site game.
• Chad is indifferent but sees theoretical value only if Herbert gets +3.5 (but not at 3).
• Simon: "This is the Herbert window ... 11–2–1 ATS as a 3.5+ dog." [11:17]
• Conclusion: No play at 3, but at +3.5, Chargers are an autoplay. Monitor line before contest decision.

Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots (-2.5)

[13:10–17:52]

• Chad: Conflicted, line move toward Raiders is market respecting their offseason (“we both bet them over 6.5 wins”).
• Simon: Cautious: “We’re too close. This one also feels too easy.” Wants +3 or higher; at 2.5, not strong enough for a big play.
• Conclusion: Play Raiders at 3; lukewarm at 2.5.

Cleveland Browns (+5.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals

[17:52–22:06] "Simon Says Bet" & Potential "Chad Loves Love" Bet

• Simon: “Week 1 divisional home underdogs are 23–7 ATS since 2010… It’s the money maker, right?” [19:30]
• Chad: “Bengals O-line might have gotten worse. I just think there's holes all over this team.” [20:32]
• Conclusion: Browns +5.5 is a clear sharp-side pick and may well be their No. 1 contest play.

Arizona Cardinals (+6.5) at New Orleans Saints

[24:21–26:19]

• Both have low conviction.
• Simon notes he’d only play Cards if line rises to 7+; wary of trusting Kyler Murray with a big spread.
• Conclusion: Not a contest pick—maybe re-examine at +7.

New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-6)

[26:19–30:07]

• Chad is wary—Giants are a clear wise-guy side as divisional road dog, but he thinks Commanders are far superior.
• Simon: Likes Commanders, especially if line drops to 5.5.
• Data Nugget: “Russell Wilson, 2–6 ATS in week one,” Simon notes, suggesting historical underperformance. [30:07]
• Conclusion: Will revisit; leaning Commanders at 5.5 or less.

Carolina Panthers (+3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

[30:07–32:55]

• Both hosts like the Panthers as a season side, but 3.5 feels like “forcing” the bet—Simon says he “had the number at 3.”
• Conclusion: Panthers +3.5 worth monitoring, maybe for a Thursday round robin.

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)

[32:55–36:53]

• Chad: Leans Miami, cites mismatch for Tua vs. Colts D.
• Simon: “Colts 2–14 ATS in Week 1… I'll tease Miami up, but not taking 1.5.”
• Both see Miami as “too public,” so not a contest pick.
• Conclusion: Miami is square, only potential use in teasers.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets (+3)

[36:53–40:29]

• Simon prefers ‘ugly’ home dogs: “Tomlin on the road as a favorite ... hates to be loved in this exact spot.” [38:44]
• Conclusion: Jets +3 are "the play" but not forcing into contest.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) at Atlanta Falcons

[43:00–45:52]

• Simon’s chalk spot: Bucks under +3. Notes divisional home dog trend (23–7 ATS) would back Atlanta, but feels Bucks are undervalued and Falcons O-line is too vulnerable.
• Conclusion: Lean Bucks at +2.5.

Tennessee Titans (+7.5) at Denver Broncos

[45:52–51:42]

• Chad wants to back Denver’s “elite D” vs. rookie QB, but Simon warns against big favorites: “Rookie QBs on road, 8–21 SU, but 13–14 ATS week one.” [47:50]
• Notable stat: “Number one overall QBs 1–15 ATS first game in last 20+ years.” [45:52]
• Conclusion: Simon likes Titans +7.5 or higher; Chad likely to take Broncos in contest.

Houston Texans at LA Rams (-3)

[52:12–53:03]

• Both lean Rams—low conviction, too many roster questions.
• Conclusion: Not worth contest spot; possible minor personal bet.

Detroit Lions (+2.5) at Green Bay Packers

[53:09–58:36]
"Chad Loves Love" Bet

• Largest offseason line move: Lions went from -1.5 favorites to +2.5 dogs after the Micah Parsons trade.
• Chad: “Chad loves the Detroit Lions at +2.5.” [55:56]
• Simon: Despite the Linfield/Green Bay trends: “Dan Campbell 11–3 ATS in September, Goff 8–0 week one.” [55:56]
• Conclusion: Both on Lions +2.5, despite heavy sharp action on GB.

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (-1.5)

[58:43–60:53]

• Simon: “Ravens are the better team on paper. ...Last time in this spot was the playoff meltdown. ... Bills thinking about Chiefs, not Ravens.”
• Both see Ravens as value in this Pick/1/1.5 window.
• Conclusion: Possible contest play; will revisit on Thursday.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (+1.5, MNF)

[60:53–63:23]

• Chad incredulous at Bears as home dogs to a rookie (JJ McCarthy) in his first start: “This is insanity...” [60:53]
• Simon: “All new staff/schemes in Chicago, but still—JJ McCarthy as a favorite on the road? Get outta here.” [62:39]
• Conclusion: Both lean Bears at home, especially as an underdog.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Simon Hunter on betting discipline:
  “The best way to make money is to not lose money. ...Don't force it here on the two and a half because there's plenty of times where this game does land on Patriots winning by three.” [16:35]

• Chad’s stat-heavy take on Browns/Bengals:
  “If there’s a worse number than 32, the Bengals are now the negative 32nd best offensive line in the NFL.” [20:32]

• Simon’s numbers on Herbert:
  “Herbert as a 3.5-point dog or more: He's 11–2–1 against the spread. ...this is the Herbert window where you want Herbert.” [11:17]

• Divisional dog trend:
  “Week 1 divisional home underdogs are 23 and seven against the spread since 2010. ...It’s the money maker, right?” [19:30]

• Chad reflecting on contest strategy:
  “I am trying to teach myself this season... The best way to make money is not to lose money. ...I want to be really disciplined about the picks I make.” [16:35, paraphrased]

Segment Timestamps for Important Games & Picks

• Show intro and philosophy: [02:31–04:10]
• Cowboys/Eagles: [04:10–10:24]
• Chiefs/Chargers: [10:24–13:10]
• Raiders/Patriots: [13:10–17:52]
• Browns/Bengals: [17:52–22:06]
• Cardinals/Saints: [24:21–26:19]
• Giants/Commanders: [26:19–30:07]
• Panthers/Jags: [30:07–32:55]
• Dolphins/Colts: [32:55–36:53]
• Steelers/Jets: [36:53–40:29]
• Bucs/Falcons: [43:00–45:52]
• Titans/Broncos: [45:52–51:42]
• Texans/Rams: [52:12–53:03]
• Lions/Packers: [53:09–58:36]
• Ravens/Bills: [58:43–60:53]
• Vikings/Bears (MNF): [60:53–63:23]

Running Shortlist of Top Contest Bets

• Browns +5.5 (Simon Says/Chad Loves Love candidate)
• Lions +2.5 (Chad Loves Love)
• Cowboys +8.5 (Contrarian, special situation)
• Commanders -5.5 or -6
• Ravens +1.5 (Value, arguably better roster)
• Bears +1.5 (Strong home dog MNF angle)
• Maybe Panthers +3.5, with further research

Tone and Flow

The episode is candid, sharp, statistical—classic “wise guy who can’t help but get ugly,” as Chad puts it. Humor and banter punctuate the bets, with both hosts challenging each others’ logic, referencing years of patterns, and keeping focus on the discipline required for a profitable season.

Closing thought (Chad): “I feel like we got a great roster of games...Digging in on the Bears, the Lions, the Ravens, the Browns, maybe the Cowboys, maybe the Panthers, maybe the Commanders. This is good. ... Until next time. Love you.” [64:02]

For Listeners:

If you want the sharpest, stats-backed contest leans for NFL Week 1—and enjoy wiseguy banter and careful bet selection—this is the one episode you need.

Next up:
Deeper pick refinement and head-to-head faceoff on Thursday!