Sharp or Square – NFL Week 1 Reactions

Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Date: September 8, 2025
Episode Theme:
Betting experts Chad and Simon break down Week 1 in the NFL, analyzing their picks, reviewing big games, and discussing where they landed "sharp" (wiseguys) vs "square" (public) on key bets. They share lessons, regrets, and early leans for Week 2, blending data-driven insights with their signature camaraderie and banter.

Main Themes & Purpose

• Recap of Week 1 Picks and Outcomes: Which bets were sharp, which were square, and how their strategies played out.
• Detailed Game Analysis: In-depth breakdowns of Steelers-Jets, Lions-Packers, Giants-Commanders, and more, with keen attention to betting nuance and line movement.
• Lessons, Regrets, and Communication: How contest strategy and bet timing shaped results; discussion of the challenge in narrowing down selections.
• Early Week 2 Leans: Identifying hidden value and overreactions in next week’s lines.
• Audience Engagement: Candid exchanges, memorable quotes, and sharp/square team roles that make even losses instructive for listeners.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Week 1 Recap: Wins, Losses, Regrets

• Contest Performance:

  • Chad: “Four of five picks down. We are three and one to start the season with one more to go tonight. Sunday Night Football we have the Ravens.” [02:06]
  • Emphasis on contest line value and why they sometimes deviate from bets they love.

• The Painful Miami Dolphins Bet

  • Chad’s impulse bet on Miami (which Simon warned against) went poorly:
    • Chad: “This bet completely makes me sick...I would have avoided the whole thing if you hadn’t brought up the Miami Dolphins this morning.” [03:58]
    • Simon: “That was definitely the squares bet we made this week. Miami was dead from the...” [07:29]
  • Miami’s lack of preparation, offensive line, and secondary were exposed badly.

• Cleveland Browns (+5.5) – The Sharp Bet

  • Simon’s “sharp” pick; both proud of clear analysis and conviction:
    • Simon: “That to me, that was our sharp bet of the week. Like, that was my flu game. I was sick as a dog this past week...I gotta go bet this Browns number again.” [09:36]
    • Chad: “No point in this game where I felt like the bet was really in jeopardy. Joe Flacco was exactly what you wanted him to be.” [10:59]

• Learning from Mistakes:

  • Avoiding last-minute line changes proved key, especially with Tennessee, Seattle, and the Jets, but missed out by overthinking.

• Open Communication as Key:

  • Chad: “As someone who's been married for a long time, I feel like we exhibited really good open dialogue to come to consensus about how to avoid some really big pitfalls that have plagued us during our relationship.” [18:40]

Game-by-Game Breakdown

1. Miami Dolphins Debacle

• Quick Take: Dolphins played “atrocious,” were physically outmatched and unprepared.
• Chad: “They were a train wreck from the start. Everything was just going wrong. And if I’m gonna lose, that’s how I want to lose. Just quick death.” [06:35]
• Simon: “They don’t have a secondary, they don’t have an offensive line. That’s going to be an absolute problem for that team.” [07:29]
• Outcome: “Dead bet.” [06:35]

2. Cleveland Browns (+5.5) – The Gem

• Read: Anticipated a defensive battle and got it, despite kicker errors and drops.
• Simon: “The best type of dogs you bet, where it’s like you think you’re going to win, you still lose on the moneyline. But overall that number you bet was just a great number at the plus number.” [10:19]

3. Jaguars vs. Panthers (Jags -2.5, Closed -4.5)

• Jags dominated physically, run game key to win.
• Panthers: “Bryce Young struggled mightily in this game and, you know, a little worrisome if you believed in the Panthers.” [13:38]
• Chad: “How are we going to manage a conversation about the Panthers this week? How are we going to manage a conversation about the Dolphins this week?” [15:16]

4. Tennessee Titans (+7.5 to +8.5)

• Value in Line Shopping: Regret in not locking better lines. Coaching errors cost them, but sticking to discipline paid off avoiding the worst. [21:09]
• Simon: “Again, it's like we talk about, it's these teams that are bad. You know, it's, it's what happens. Right. So that's why we focus so hard on getting the best of the number.” [19:58]

5. Jets vs. Steelers (Jets +3)

• Jets Fun & Competitive: “They played with the attitude that we thought Aaron Glenn would bring. And Justin Fields was kind of awesome...” [23:25]
• Simon: “I love Justin Field...That was not at all how I truly envisioned that game going. I thought it would be much more run heavy...” [24:42]
• Steelers Steal Win: Public cleaned up while books made most on the line. [24:42]

6. Lions-Packers & Other Notes

• Detroit (+1.5) Falls Short: Defense struggled; Packers capitalized on key mistakes. [26:20]
• Chad: “Had a penalty on interception from Brian Branch that he ran back for a touchdown. So tough spots for them.” [26:20]

Notable Quotes & Moments

• Chad on Miami Bet (Regret/Blame):
  “I would have avoided the whole thing if you hadn't brought up the Miami Dolphins this morning. Because I was out. I wasn't even thinking about it... What happened to us?” [03:58]

• Simon on Browns Pick (Pride):
  “That was my flu game. I was sick as a dog... but just getting back in the book, being around all these people again... all week I just kept betting it... that number you bet was just a great number at the plus number.” [09:36]

• On Contest Strategy:
  Chad: “As much as it kept us from putting the Jets and the Raiders in, it also kept us from putting the Lions in... So, let's see how we did.” [02:06]
  Simon: “That's why we are such sticklers about it, getting the best of the number, try to play as safe as possible in the contest.” [05:05]

• Communication & Relationship:
  Chad: “I feel like we exhibited really good open dialogue to come to consensus about how to avoid some really big pitfalls that have plagued us during our relationship.” [18:40]

• Simon (Contest Pride):
  “I'll never complain about a three in one week one and possibility of a four and one start. So yeah, it was, it was good, good discipline especially avoiding the Tennessee.” [19:58]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Week 1 Recap, Panic & Logic: [02:06]
• Miami Dolphins Regret: [03:58 – 07:56]
• Cleveland Browns Sharp Bet: [08:35 – 10:59]
• Jaguars-Panthers Observations: [12:35 – 15:16]
• Contest Discipline & Avoided Pitfalls: [18:40 – 21:09]
• Jets-Steelers Analysis: [23:25 – 26:20]
• Lions-Packers & Detroit Debrief: [26:20 – 28:14]

Early Week 2 Leans & Sharp Angles

Miami vs. New England

• Line Movement: Miami from -1.5 to -2.5.
• Chad: “First bet I made...I'd bet this game up to three. Like you're gonna have to lean Miami after such a bad showing in week one.” [26:20]
• Simon (vehemently opposed): “I tried to teach you a lesson today and I clearly did not work so it didn’t work.” [28:48]

Eagles at Chiefs

• Questioning KC's Value:
  “Kansas City is only a 1 1/2 point favorite at home. They look terrible on Friday night... One and a half feels a little too light for me.” [29:18]
• Simon: “It's respect for past years. This is a team that is down their number one and number two wide receiver.” [30:17]
• Simon leans Philly at plus number, ready to buy back on KC if line moves.

Raiders (+3.5) vs. Chargers

• Public might overrate Chargers based on win; value on Raiders if Bowers plays. [33:12]

Additional Noteworthy Early Leans

• Cincy -5.5 vs. Jags: Chad likes Cincy.
• Browns +12.5 at Ravens: Egregious line, potential value.
• Jets +8.5 at home vs. Bills: Feels way too big.
• Lions -4.5 vs. Bears: Potential public fade opportunity.
• Seahawks +2.5 at Steelers: Simon loves it, Chad wary due to Seahawks' O-line.
• Colts +3 vs. Broncos: Simon surprised, likes Indy as a value play.
• Panthers +6.5 vs. Cardinals: Both agree it's the "egregious" buy-low of the week.

Final Notes & Takeaways

• Both hosts stress the importance of discipline, emotional control, and sticking to “sharp” process over following the public.
• Chalk up Dolphins as a lesson in humility and the dangers of betting based on hype or revenge.
• Simon's contrarian instincts lead most of the early value picks, while Chad acknowledges (with humor) when he falls for square traps.
• Listeners are reminded that Week 2 is a prime time for market overreactions, and sharp betters exploit those spots early.

Closing Sentiment:
“There’s a lot of landmines out there and that’s the hardest part...I’ll never complain about a three in one week one and possibility of a four and one start...” – Simon [19:58]

Next Show:
Sharper Square returns on Tuesday for a full Week 2 NFL breakdown.