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Sharp or Square
Chad Millman & Simon Hunter's NFL Week 1 Reactions: Steelers-Jets, Lions-Packers, Giants-Commanders & more
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- [00:00]
A
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- [00:33]
B
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- [01:42]
C
All right, welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock Bat. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the betting show that makes the square squares sharper. Especially today makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined by my co host, my bff, my companion, my compadre professional Better Simon Hunter.
- [02:03]
B
Hello Simon, Chad, how we doing?
- [02:06]
C
You know what, this is the first Sunday in a couple years where I actually feel pretty good about the Sunday Panic. The way this game for the Titans and the Broncos just ended should make us feel really good. We have almost made it through our first Sunday. Four of five picks down. We are three and one to start the season with one more to go tonight. Sunday Night Football we have the Ravens. We like them all week. The contest line that we got was one and a half but we still both bet them as favorites. We bet him at minus one. We like him up to minus two. Still time to grab it. We're going to get into it. Our last out were the Tennessee Titans plus seven and a half. Jets, Raiders, Seahawks a plus two and a half. Lions at plus one and a half. Listen, if we had just chosen the jets or the Raiders who we had been in on all week instead of the Dolphins, we would be undefeated right now. We'd be 4 0. But as you said, the panic is real on Sunday. We overthought a lot of games but truly a lot of our logic that we discussed today on the show, which people could have heard so they would have known exactly where we landed for the day about line value that we discussed. As much as it kept us from putting the lion putting the jets and the Raiders in, it also kept us from putting the Lions in It kept us from putting the Titans in, who were seven and a half in the contest. Even kept us from putting the Seahawks in. So let's see how we did. Buddy, you ready?
- [03:47]
B
I am.
- [03:48]
C
Okay.
- [03:48]
B
Yeah. You're gonna keep going? I'm. Yeah, it's all you do is say yes.
- [03:52]
C
Sometimes I can't see you because I'm looking at the script and so I can't see the screen when you're on.
- [03:57]
B
A roll like that, like this, to let you go.
- [03:58]
C
Thanks, buddy. I appreciate it. Listen, old habits die hard, so we're gonna get the ugly one out of the way. This bet completely makes me sick. What did I say all week? I said I was not going to make impulsive decisions. I said I was not going to make bets on Sunday in the morning because I like something all week and felt like the line moved a little bit in my direction. And I would have avoided the whole thing. I would have avoided the whole thing if you hadn't brought up the Miami Dolphins this morning. Because I was out. I wasn't even thinking about it. I hadn't bet it. And yet it became a game that I bet and it became a game that we put into the contest. What happened to us?
- [04:40]
B
You said you loved it.
- [04:41]
C
I said I loved it all week. I'm counting on you. That's what happened to be the voice of Better Angels. I wasn't even going to bring it up on the show today. This morning, I skipped it. And then you said to me, you said to me, what about Miami?
- [04:55]
B
I was going to say I just wanted out of your Detroit bet. So in my mind, I was like, okay, if I'm taking one super chalky bet, which we said Detroit was a public dog.
- [05:05]
C
Yeah.
- [05:06]
B
The other game you said you loved was Miami. It was okay, okay, I'll make the deal. The devil. But, you know, it was going to be a loss. Like, even the seven and a half with Tennessee I was confident in. But I knew, I knew for some reason one of these games ended up being two of them were really going to matter when it came to that number. And it was the jets, the two and a half. And obviously Tennessee with the eight and a half could have played seven and a half in contest, would have been a loser. And I know it gets annoying to people, but that's why we are such sticklers about it, getting the best of the number, try to play as safe as possible in the contest. And yeah, it was a bad. It was a bad look. Like again, a lot of games we love this week Obviously, I wish you love them too. We could have talked ourselves into it. But you know, Washington, the Bucks. Yeah, they were all sitting right there as well. Besides our Raiders and Jets love. And that's what's so fun and hard about these contests. Like, you know, I. I told you for months that I hated Miami, thought Miami was the worst team of football. You were disgusted, I mean, truly disgusted, when I told you I would bet them pretty, pretty heavily to be the worst team in football 20 to 1. And I got where you're coming from, right? Everyone just hated them so much. Sometimes it goes the other way. This time it did not. Like you said, they were a train wreck from the start. Everything was just going wrong. And if I'm gonna lose, that's how I want to lose. Just quick death, it was over. Took it out of my four box. Never even put that game ever back on ever again.
- [06:36]
C
Dead bet. Dead bet. Daniel Jones looked like Johnny Unitis playing for the Colts. Like to Toa was so bad. Throwing picks, fumbles. He looked horrible. Like at one point, at one point, I made a note of this in the third quarter. Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, Ty Warren all had more total yards than the entire Dolphins team. Yeah, the Dolphins team only had 62 yards midway through the second quarter. They all had more yards on their own than the Dolphins. It was actually a truly pathetic display of a team not being ready, of a team getting blown off the field from the second the game started. They were atrocious.
- [07:29]
B
Yeah. And I think you see what though, I was trying to warn you about, they don't have a secondary, they don't have an offensive line. And that's going to be an absolute problem for that team and what they need to make it work. So, yeah, this shows card Sharper Square. Our square bet of the week goes to Chad Millman and his love for the Miami Dolphins. So we'll see what the sharp bet was. I got a good feeling I know what it is. But that was definitely the squares bet we made this week. Miami was dead from the.
- [07:56]
C
Unfortunately, it was my square pick in our Sharper Square. Head to head in which you had Denver, so although, no, you had Tennessee. Who did you end up having?
- [08:07]
B
Yeah, Tennessee.
- [08:08]
C
Tennessee at eight and a half. So, yeah, man, great, great day for you. Great. You know what? You're crushing it. You are. You are fantastic.
- [08:17]
B
Oh, brother.
- [08:17]
C
You.
- [08:18]
B
You spent three months gallivanting, traveling the world, writing a book. I was in a hole watching film, crunching numbers just to be told I'm a fraud on the Internet.
- [08:27]
C
I can't. I can't wait to talk about how I've already bet Miami minus one and a half against the Patriots at home.
- [08:33]
B
I love it. Love where your head's at.
- [08:36]
C
All right. The one we nailed, Cleveland plus five and a half. We loved it from the beginning. This was your Simon says. I wanted it to be. Chad loves love. You know, the first drive of the game, I wasn't even worried. Like, this defense was elite against the Bengals. Joe Flacco did. We predicted on Tuesday there was going to be a narrative for this game. The narrative was going to be Kevin Stefanski wants Joe Flacco to not screw up this game. He wants to be conservative. He wants his defense to dominate. All of those things happen. If not for a rookie kicker missing an extra point and a chip shot field goal and drop passes that led to interceptions from the Browns, the Browns win this game pretty. Not handily, but it's not even. It's not a sweat. Like they were. They were the much better team today.
- [09:36]
B
Yeah. And that to me, that was our, our sharp bet of the week. Like, that was my flu game. I was sick as a dog this past week. Tried to make it work for the show, tried to hide it the best I could, but just getting back in the book, being around all these people again, I have to wash my hands every 10 minutes. That's what I'm starting to realize once I'm getting back into these type of places. And yeah, this game, all week I just kept betting it like I would be sick laying in bed. I'm like, I gotta get up. I gotta go bet this Browns number again. And you know, Jerry Judy gave me a run for the money on that game. He had a couple huge drops, bad pick off of his hands. The kicker killing us. I mean, we, we win that game outright on that Browns money line so many different ways.
- [10:20]
C
Oh, my God.
- [10:20]
B
It just. That's what's so sickening about betting these dogs is they just. They're bad teams. Right. They find ways to lose. You know, we see the time and time again, that's the difference between teams that went parentally and these teams that just lose like the Browns did today, where it's like everything that can go wrong goes wrong in the worst times. And yeah, that's. Again, we talked. Right. Three and a half is what it probably should have been. We got two free points. Got a little scary. Right. At certain points, but overall you never really worried about the five and a half or five. So yeah, that's. Those are the Best type of dogs you bet where it's like you think you're going to win, you still lose on the money line. But overall that, that number you bet was just a great number at the plus number.
- [11:00]
C
Yeah, it's true. There was no point in this game where I felt like the bet was really in jeopardy. Joe Flacco was exactly what you wanted him to be. There was a drive in the second quarter, took about nine minutes. He was 9 of 11 on the drive. Right. They score the touchdown. That's when they miss the extra point to open the fourth quarter. They have back to back drops on third and fourth down from just inside midfield. On fourth down it was Judy who led the NFL in drops last year. But the defense is so freaking good. And this is gonna, this is gonna be a tough one for us this year, Simon, because we like to bet good defenses. There was a series where the Bengals were sacked three straight times. Two of them by Myles Garrett. They were ended up punting from the back line of their end zone. And that still could have made like the game winning play for the Browns if they had made that freaking field goal. So I don't know what you think of the Browns. Like we loved it all week. I think they're already listed as 12 and a half point dogs to Baltimore next week. So when we get to our early leans, I have a feeling that game is going to come up.
- [12:22]
B
Yeah, I love the Browns and there'll be a lot of opportunities this upcoming season to take them when like this week people just didn't believe in them. The public loved, love the Bengals and they got very lucky on their teasers that that number came through. And Survivor contest.
- [12:35]
C
Yeah, Jags minus two and a half in the contest. It closed at four and a half. I think it was a very physical game to start. But Trevor Lawrence and Trevor Lawrence's first touchdown pass was a rollout to a wide open tight end from about the 10 yard line. The guy was open forever. I actually yelled throw it to him. And then of course, like he doesn't even make the touch pass. It's a little bit too much of a laser. But it worked. And like before the weather delay, you sort of had the feeling the Jaguars were what everyone said they were. They were better physically. They were more talented. I wasn't that impressed with Trevor Lawrence. Like he was okay. It'll be tricky to try to figure out this team and tricky to figure out the Panthers. I'm gonna have to watch it. I didn't spend that much time on it because they were dominating so much. So. So I don't know if Bryce Harper was or Bryce Young was just bad or if he just has no help whatsoever.
- [13:38]
B
Yeah, thinking one exactly how we predicted of the talent level with the Jaguars team compared to that Panthers team and your bet on the Jaguars on their division, I can see it like they're not that good, but I can see a 9 and 8 winning this division somehow. And Trevor, so much potential. But like you said, he just does things that are so bad. Like he's so stupid and like his reading sometimes you're just like, man, I don't get it. I just don't get why he's not taking that next step. Maybe as time will go on, he'll get more comfortable this offense and he won't look as lost as he did at some points today. But if they had any type of pass rush, the Panthers, there's a couple times he would have been in real trouble, but he could just stand back there. Even when he was moving the pocket. They had no one that could even run him down. He just really had his way. And it all started to me because of the run game and we talked about, you know, the big upgrade they had to the offense was, you know, their head coach and the fact that the running game to me was the difference of this game. They just really, really ran the ball down the throat of this Panthers defense. And, you know, you said it. Bryce Young struggled mightily in this game and, you know, a little worrisome if you believed in the Panthers. He looked like the bad Bryce from last year of making bad reads, being late on throws and staying in the pocket too long. But like you said, they're just, you question what's that talent around them? So we'll see. Again, he's got direct receiver. True Harbor's a good running back. We'll see as the offense goes along here, Panthers, if they actually get into a rhythm, they just look so lost today. And yeah, that's the rare time this one jumped out. To us it felt way too easy and we took it anyway and it was never in doubt.
- [15:17]
C
Yeah, here's the challenge, you know that we love to bet teams off a blowout the following week because they're never as bad as they looked in the week they were blown out. So how are we going to manage a conversation about the Panthers this week? How are we going to manage a conversation about the Dolphins this week? We're going to get into all that with our early week two leans and I want to talk a little bit about how we should be proud of ourselves and some of our regrets from our conversations because as you pointed out, it's not easy to settle on the five and it's not easy when you you could go six and three on the day, but two and three in a contest because it's hard to figure out which games that you feel best about. So let's take a quick moment before we get to the week two lanes. Let's hear from our friends at Hard Rock BET before we get into the next part of the conversation. We are crazy excited to announce our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock bet. I don't know if you know this. I've got a very long history of staying at Hard Rock hotels and casinos, including one football season practically living there. Literally. They've always been to me the best combination of vibe and fun. Now you can use the top row Hard Rock BET sportsbook to place your bets all NFL season and beyond. Hard Rock Bet is the only legal sports book in the state of Florida and is also available in Arizona, Ohio, New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois and Colorado, with more states launching all the time. You can also play on Hard Rock Bet's online casino if you are in New Jersey. Simon, I know you want to check that out. From here on out, you'll start to see us use Hard Rock fat lines when we're talking about the games. And everyone knows Simon and I, we have loved getting out and doing live shows. Now we can actually do them from Hard Rock property. Simon, do we see a sharp or square live show from AC just down the road from you in our future as we gear Gear up for NFL season. Sign up for Hard Rock bet. Make a $5 bet. You'll get $150 in bonus bets if you win. Head over to Hard Rock Bet. Sign up and make your first deposit today. These are payable in bonus bets, not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida. Offered by Seminole hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states. Must be 21 and over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play, terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1888. Admit it in Indiana. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1809 with it. Gambling problem? Call 1-800- GAMBLER in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. You can make a difference in someone's life, including your own with a job in home care. These jobs offer flexible schedules, health care, retirement options and free training they also provide paid time off and opportunities for overtime. Visit oregonhomecarejobs.com to learn more and apply. That's oregonhomecarejobs.com you know what, I kind of like the theme music for that ad. It's very tropical. If I were to review, I think I'm most proud that we never fell prey to the Panthers at plus three and a half, that we actually played the Jags, followed some line value even if that was a last minute move. I'm also really proud of our conversation this morning that we backed out of Tennessee because it was at seven and a half and that you listened to me about Seattle. I thought that was some just excellent communication. As someone who's been married for a long time, I feel like we exhibited really good open dialogue to come to consensus about how to avoid some really big pitfalls that have plagued us during our relationship.
- [19:58]
B
Yeah, it's a lot of landmines out there and that's the hardest part is there. I'm trying to find out which ones we should be taking, which ones you should be avoiding. And I know a lot of really, really smart guys who bet really heavy today on the Falcons, on the Giants and I got their reasoning but it felt lucky that we were on the other side of those. And yeah the, the games like you said, the games will own will wear are the games we miss and obviously Raiders, jets, hindsight 2020 Wish we had those in but I'll never complain about a three in one week one and possibility of a four and one start. So yeah, it was, it was good, good discipline especially avoiding the Tennessee because I loved Tennessee. But again I told you I was so invested at eight and a half. Eight, you know, knew is a risk that it could land at the seven and a half and it's crazy. It really did land on the eight and they should have covered that game maybe even wanted outright 100 different ways. But yeah, the coaching in that game was just brutal. Again, it's like we talk about, it's these teams that are bad. You know, it's, it's what happens. Right. So that's why we focus so hard on getting the best of the number. And yeah, thank God we avoided that one. That'd be tough to be sitting here two and two because we put Tennessee back in.
- [21:10]
C
Yeah, look, well also it kind of played out the way we thought it might on the field. Cam Ward wasn't that good and he looked like a rookie quarterback playing against a fierce, fierce pass rush. There was one point where they were on the 25 yard line after a muffed fumble by the Broncos late in the game. They ended up punting because he got sacked so so many times. He was back on the other side of midfield.
- [21:38]
B
I mean before half was the most egregious thing. They had the ball before half, we'll say 45 seconds left and they could have just ran it out and the like. Denver would use their two timeouts but that would have been the end of the half. They're up 63 at this point, but for some reason their mind they're dropping Cam Ward back the pass because they're going to steal three points before half in 40 seconds with a rookie quarterback that like you said, hasn't been doing much the whole day. That's what I'm talking about the coaching. It's like they, they punt there. Two plays, Denver scores a touchdown. They get lucky on a kickoff and they get three there. But you know, you could go into half up six, three, you're going to have down 10, nine. Changes the whole makeup of the game. So just little things like that. It's like Tennessee. I believe in them this year when no one else did. I really planted my flag on this game because of all the data that backs up betting. Teams that, you know, struggled last year against the spread versus teams that overperformed against the spread came to fruition this week 1. But yeah, landing right on 8. That's why I love what we do. It's like that's crazy. That line landed right on eight and that the books were just so sharp with it. And you know, it was eight and a half nine for about what, 48 hours, maybe 72 hours. So yeah, that, that was a number that sat there. The public kept taking it and yeah, they, they def. We got it away with one too. Like survivor contest. I'm glad we're done with the bone Next experience with our survivor contest.
- [23:03]
C
Well, look, that's what. That's the other thing is that he was not very good.
- [23:08]
B
Oh, he was terrible.
- [23:09]
C
And the Titans defense was much, much better I think than we expected them to be.
- [23:13]
B
Defensive, special teams. I told you both things would be better.
- [23:15]
C
Yeah, even Jeffrey Simmons lose the game.
- [23:18]
B
Right, Chad? Yeah, he was bad. Came more but he didn't lose the game.
- [23:22]
C
No, no. The.
- [23:23]
B
If that was Will Levis, they would have lost by two touchdowns.
- [23:25]
C
Right. The, the what lost the game honestly was just how dominant the Broncos defense was because Bo Nicks didn't win them the game in any way. He made sort of the right plays at the end. But he's the whole reason the Titans were in it to begin with. I want to do a quick recap on the jets because they were fun and chippy and aggressive. They played with the attitude that we thought Aaron Glenn would bring. And Justin Fields was kind of awesome. 9 of 11 in the first half, 16 to 22 in the game. Breece hall had more than 100 yards rushing. Super physical, like they were making a point. There was a second half drive where Justin Field scrambled, looked downfield on multiple plays. He was accurate. Then to finish the drive, bullied his way into the end zone to give the jets two score a lead. And after the jets gave up the lead, they went right back down the field. Justin Fields a fourth down run to score a touchdown to give him the given the lead back. Like very interesting team. Kudos to you because you were on this game with the jets plus three all week. Like outstanding. Loved it. Loved watching that game. Had so much fun betting that game.
- [24:43]
B
Yeah, I love Justin Field. Justin Field's upside for that team coming the season. But that was not at all how I truly envisioned that game going. I thought it would be much more run heavy from both teams and you know, immediately turn to a shootout. Like bizarre. You know Aaron Rodgers, they didn't bring Aaron Rodgers in to win, get 32 points. Right. They brought him in to hopefully manage the game and then get them in a position with the end. He threw for four touchdowns. That was incredible game by Rogers because there's points in the game where he does look like an old man. He just makes these like old man mistakes and takes these bad sacks. But then he'll make throws where it's like that's vintage Rogers. And there's only a handful of quarterbacks in the history of the league that could ever make those type of throws. And you know Justin Fields brutal. Like every chance to win that game played so well. Once again, the jets are a bad team. They made little mistakes, got them in the end. That's why they lost that game. And you know Tomlin coach Pittsburgh team steals that game on the road. And another time where we talk about how important the number two is. Right. Landed right on two. Talk all the time in nauseam. The NFL has changed. It happens every week. It feels like a number lands on two. Another spread really sharp of the bookmakers. The. The public hammered. Absolutely hammered Pittsburgh minus two and a half. So yeah, the books cleaned up today and usually that's when we clean up as well. So that was a really nice spot for Them and a really nice number and I again, I'm still shocked Pittsburgh won that game. I just thought the jets played so much better. I can't believe they didn't close it out the end.
- [26:20]
C
Yeah, I think if we looked back at that game. Look back at at the Browns game, you'll be shocked that those two teams weren't the winners because they really kind of dominated the games. To review from the week Simon says was the Browns they covered Chad Loves. Love was Detroit. They did not. The first half they were much better than the score indicated but the packers were just dominant. Like defensively they were pretty amazing. And there were enough times where Jordan Love was able to find holes in the, in the Lions defense. Lions dropped an interception. Alexander Loney dropped interception that could have been critical. They had a penalty on interception from Brian Branch that he ran back for a touchdown. So tough spots for them. That's going to be a game we got to look at a little more deeply to figure out what we think of Detroit. Brass balls. Tennessee, we had them basically at eight and a half so good for them, good for us. Rocking a hard place bet Baltimore. We're on him as a very short favorite tonight so that'll be the key to getting us to 500 on those four critical titled bets. Let's talk about some early Lane Simons quickly. Bad news because New England at Miami. I checked this line at about 545 and it was one and a half Miami. First bet I made. Don't tell me it's square. I get it. It's up to two and a half pretty much across the board. Hard Rock bet two and a half. I'd bet this game up to three. Like you're gonna have to lean Miami after such a bad showing in week one.
- [28:15]
B
I will, but I'm not forcing him. There's zero chance I'm letting you put in the contest. So like again I, I've given out my opinion. I've made my stand on Miami. Chad has gone right back to the stove to touch touch the stove one more time on this Miami Dolphins team. Even though I explained to him exactly why.
- [28:32]
C
But you're not going to be a.
- [28:33]
B
Terrible team this season.
- [28:34]
C
You're telling me that at one and a half you wouldn't play the Dolphins?
- [28:37]
B
I'm not. I, I don't care if the Dolphins are a three point dog that this line moves five points. I wouldn't let you put this into the contest. I, I tried to teach you a lesson today and I clearly did not work so it didn't work.
- [28:49]
C
It didn't work.
- [28:50]
B
So, no, I. I mean, I get where you're coming from. They're up to minus two at Hard Rock. Yeah, Miami. It's gonna be the professional side. I just, I got no interest in this team. And yeah, even if they come through, I won't let us get sucked into this trend of like them always being undervalued this year because, you know, the public is going to be like me. They're totally out on this team. They just looked to look totally lost, but just overall they look like they have no will or desire to be out there. They got. They got big boy today.
- [29:18]
C
It was bad. It was pretty bad. They really did look like they hadn't spent any time preparing the past month. It was astonishingly bad, which is when you bet that team the following week, Philadelphia at Kansas City. These were just a couple games that, like, I noticed. I'm going to want you to give me some of yours, too. Kansas City is only a 1 1/2 point favorite at home. They look terrible on Friday night. I do wonder how much of that had to do with Xavier Worthy, who's going to be such a critical part of their game plan, being knocked out immediately. Though we have a history of wanting to bet the Chiefs at certain numbers when they are less than a three point favorite or a dog. It did not work out for us in the Super Bowl. We had the Chargers in the contest at three and a half. That worked out for us this past week. I'd rather be a little bit late on fading the Chiefs and one and a half feels a little too light for me.
- [30:18]
B
Agree. I think this number is what you just talked about. It's respect for past years. And this is a team that is down there number one and number two, wide receiver, when they were already struggling offensively. And Pacheco just. Pacheco is not what he used to be. He is talented, but he's. He just looks a little slower. And that offensive line doesn't look like they're that great at blocking. And the Eagles are coming off an extended rest from home like they were at home after their game on Thursday. This. This Chiefs team was flying back from Brazil. And you know that's a big deal for week one, right? You lose that type of game now, you're on a long flight home, not getting back till Saturday, you know. Yes, that's not a short week, but it's not extended rest like the Eagles are coming off. And I think the Eagles last week, they might have Won that game. I don't think they're going to treat it as such this upcoming week in practice. Right. I think they know they got away with one and they played really slow in the second half. So this number at Hard Rock is already up to plus one Chiefs. So I'm gonna grab the Eagles now and I'll maybe take a big position and buy back later on on the Chiefs if that becomes, you know, if this gets up to plus three, I don't have a choice at that point. This is going to move too much and I'll take that by on this chief's team. But it's, it's scary. Like if someone that likes this chief team wants to back them, you know it like that worthy thing that's there could have been a more important player to that offense.
- [31:45]
C
Yeah.
- [31:45]
B
You don't want Hollywood Brown and JuJu Smith Schuster to be your number one and two receivers. That's a scary spot the be in right now for that offense. So yeah, Mahomes in that game was incredible. Honestly against the Chargers, like the stuff he does, it's just to cast a reminder why he is the best quarterback in football and he has nothing around him right now. And it's, it's a team that we're going to have a ton of value on later in the season. Especially where if they are, you know, three and six or four and six at some point and everyone's counting them out. I love them once they get everyone back and they're healthy. But as they stand right now, Chad, this is the team I'm looking to take a position against with this early number. And you know, if you can get Eagles that plus number, I take it we're just giving out Hard Rock right now and that's minus one.
- [32:28]
C
Las Vegas is a three and a half point home underdog against the Chargers. I feel like the Chargers are overvalued right now because of beating the Chiefs who we just discussed I think are a little bit diminished in terms of quality and health. The Raiders are now getting to go home and they're playing inside where Gino can be elite. The only reason I would hesitate right now is Brock Bowers. He left the game with a knee injury. He's tried to go back in. They wouldn't let him. Generally, I think there is optimism he will play. What do you think of getting the hook?
- [33:13]
B
I hate it. Yeah, you can grab it now if you want to. I mean that's obviously a really nice spot and you know it's a standalone game so I'm. I'm with you. I feel like the public will keep coming on the Chargers so we can grab the three and a half now, but that's also a line that could keep going up. Like Chad just said, if Bowers is out, you know, the public, they're going to be taking a heavy position. I mean, I can already see them parlaying them. The Bucks, that back to back game on Monday night. So. Yeah, I like your early read here. Plus three and a half. That's good value.
- [33:40]
C
All right, what am I missing? I got Cincy -5 and a half against the Jags. I like Cincy as an early lean. Cleveland plus 12 and a half against Baltimore. In Baltimore. That feels egregious. Jets plus eight and a half at home versus Buffalo. Both of those feel way too big and I'm trying not to be sort of overly biased based on what we saw today.
- [34:12]
B
Yeah, I'll just talk again because we have two, literally two shows come this week. I'll just talk about the lines that jumped out right away to me from what Hard Rock put up. And when I first went to their page, I was going to think to myself, what will they make the lines before the Bears play? And I was shocked. They hung a minus four and a half and you know, lines at home minus four and a half against a Bears team that could. What me and Chad think should be happening is them having a very emotional win on Monday night. Maybe you get better value. But if they get rolled here, this number could easily get up to six and a half. Like this Lions number could shoot up if this Bears team does not look right and doesn't look prepared. So that's a number that, you know, jumped out. I grabbed it just thinking the public most likely wouldn't be on the lines. We'll see. Another. Another line that jumped out that, you know, I grabbed it just because we talked about the key Number of 2 1/2 Seahawks. I'm going back to the. Well, they're playing Pittsburgh and crazy ending to their game, like just an insane flukish end. And I think the Seahawks in this game would have been at a pick. Honestly, if they would have won that game at home, I think they would have got more respect from the general public. Feels like we're getting a free point and a half, two points here. And I'll say this about Pittsburgh. They have a bunch of stuff you can really attack on their defense. Like their secondary is banged up. They have major issues if they have a really banged up secondary because Justin Fields looked like an all pro passer. That's a problem. So just looking at this matchup, it really favors a Seahawks team. The fact that they're coming off this type of brittle loss. You know, I'm not going to make you a rush to take this one. Just know this is a position I'm already taking that, you know, just like the Jets. I can see the public liking Pittsburgh in this spot. Could see this growing up to three, three and a half. And Chad knows the deal. Tomlin at home is a favorite. Once he crosses three, that is not a position you want to be in. Usually he loses those type of games.
- [36:10]
C
So the one thing I would say about Seattle, we worried about their offensive line. Their offensive line was not very good today and the Steelers still have a good pass rush that gotten Justin Fields grill a lot today. Like the whole reason the Seahawks lost that game is because the Niners were able to rush. They got into Sam Darnold's grill and forced a fumble when they were at the 10 yard line.
- [36:37]
B
It's fair. I mean, I thought their offense was pretty good, but yeah, it was a tough matchup. I mean they had a dumb fumble by their wide receiver. Like a lot of things just didn't work their way. And yeah, I, I thought they played well. Run blocking, I thought they did better. But we'll see. We'll see what this line moves to. So yeah, if you don't want it, that's gonna honestly make me like it even more. I'll be honest with you, Chad, you're right.
- [37:01]
C
Now that feels dismissive.
- [37:05]
B
I'm just gonna save it for the show. I just. Good. I'm happy you like Pittsburgh and you have doubts about this.
- [37:10]
C
I don't. I. I'm not saying I like Pittsburgh. I'm just saying not sold on Seattle.
- [37:15]
B
You're going to pass on it for the contest. You're going to pass on it for betting.
- [37:18]
C
You are just feeling yourself right now.
- [37:21]
B
I want to.
- [37:23]
C
What else? What else is on your little list?
- [37:27]
B
These are just again games that jump out to me where it's like I'm shocked about the public early line, Valiant, the sides they love. And it's going to be this Colts side against this Broncos team. Colts are plus three. I'm shocked. They are plus three at books right now. Like I couldn't believe Hard Rock put up Colts plus three. So it's. They're giving me the Saints from last year. Deja vu. I don't know if we're going to keep riding this Colts team. But as they stand, I don't know, I feel like that's a good spot to back them against the Denver team, that the public. They're going to come back and bet them next week. Like, they don't. I don't think they're going to be worried about them. And to me, these two teams, as I say right now, they're not that different stylistically. But, yeah, I just. I don't know if I'm gonna force us into it. There's another line that's gross. I'm not going to make us take a chad, but I think you're gonna be the same page with me. The Panthers, they're up to six and a half against that Cardinals team that could have lost a million different ways to the Saints today. So I know people. I was hoping we'd maybe wait a week or two for our Cardinals. I mean, our Panthers love. But that's egregious. Six and a half against that Cardinals team is egregious after they just got blown out. Like, I know we're gonna find some crazy stats about these teams. I got rolled.
- [38:42]
C
Yeah.
- [38:42]
B
Panthers are going to fit into that. So just early bet. I've already bet at a hard rock here. Plus six and a half. Give me the Panthers.
- [38:49]
C
I. I honestly had the Panthers in the script. I don't know if you saw it, and I skipped it just because I was. I was so embarrassed to say it. I thought you were going to treat me the way you just did about Seattle, and so I just didn't want to bring it up. So I'm glad. I'm glad you said it.
- [39:08]
B
Yeah. We got it. It's. It's just a game. I know. Come Thursday, I'm probably really gonna get warm to. I just. Everything from that Cardinals game is exactly why I have my doubts about them. It's just. Kyler just looks so.
- [39:19]
C
Yeah, no, totally.
- [39:21]
B
Yeah. So. Yeah. That's. That's crazy. It's gone up to six and a half, and I'm. Again, I'm just gonna throw a little on because I'll be patient. Like, if the public really loves this Cardinals team and we can get a seven here, seven and a half in our contest. It might be unavoidable putting this one in next week.
- [39:37]
C
Yeah. All right. So that's the lineup that we're thinking about. Those are our early liens. Reminder, we got the Ravens tonight. That will be the closeout for our contest. We are 3 and 1. We. We won with the Chargers. We won with the Browns. We won with the Jags. We lost on the Dolphins. We'd like the Ravens to finish 4:1. For our five best today, this has been Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock bet. We're part of the Volume Podcast Network. We will be back with our next Sharper Square on Tuesday to go over the entire NFL slate. Watch or listen on YouTube at sharp or or Square like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Also download us from Spotify, Apple Pod, wherever you get your pods. Because most importantly, rate review. Because feedback is always a gift and it helps make the show easier to find for everyone. Until next time. Love you.