Sharp or Square: Conference Championships Reaction & Super Bowl LX Preview

Podcast: Sharp or Square
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Date: January 26, 2026
Episode Theme: Betting Breakdown and Reaction to the NFL Conference Championship Games, Plus Super Bowl LX (Patriots vs. Seahawks) Early Preview

Episode Overview

Chad Millman and Simon Hunter, seasoned sports betting analysts, bring high-energy, candid reactions to the 2026 NFL Conference Championship games. They dissect game decisions, coaching gambles, weather impacts, key player performances, and betting results—providing sharp vs. square insights for listeners preparing for Super Bowl LX. The banter is passionate, sometimes irreverent, and always focused on actionable takeaways for bettors.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Story of the Day: Snow in Denver & Its Impact

• Snow as a Game-Changer: Both hosts are ecstatic about the snow-soaked AFC Championship in Denver, comparing it to the drama and strategic shifts of playoff baseball. The weather controlled everything—play calling, field position, and ultimately the result.

  • "Snow was the story of the day...I cannot emphasize enough how much I love, love, love snowy football with nothing but one yard plays." – Chad Millman [03:36]

• Polarizing Fan Views: The hosts note the divided opinions—either fans relish these elements or loathe them.

  • "Either you love it or you just think it's an abomination and you absolutely hate it. I just...I'll never get that." – Chad Millman [04:37]

2. AFC Championship: New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos

Game Recap & Coaching Decisions

• Denver's Missed Opportunities:

  • Denver’s defense shined in the first half. However, a controversial 4th-and-1 decision (not taking points) and abrupt weather changes shattered their advantage.
  • "How do you not be heartbroken after a game like that, where you should have stole that a million different ways? You had the dream game defensively." – Simon Hunter [06:40]
  • "You want to get him as big a lead as possible so I can account for as many mistakes as possible." – Co-host [07:33]

• Game-Turning Moments:

  • Patriots capitalized on turnovers and (per both) simply "survived" the blizzard in Denver, rather than dominating.
  • Coaching conservatism vs. aggression dissected: Rabel’s call to take the points (field goal) was credited as pivotal.

Quarterback Play: Drake Maye & Jarrett Stidham

• Drake Maye’s Rough Day: Minimal passing yards (86), relied heavily on legs.

  • "Drake May was bad. Simply put, he was bad today." – Simon Hunter [08:10]
  • "He literally could not do anything but his legs. Every time he needed a big play..." – Chad Millman [17:11]

• Stidham and The Backup Question:

  • Discussion about Stidham’s long-term upside capped at a decent backup.
  • "No, I never thought he was going to play himself into being a starter just because he's 29. I mean, 30 years old. No, he's in the perfect role for what he is." – Simon Hunter [19:10]

Betting Reaction & Takeaways

• Victory laps for hitting on Broncos +5.5 and critiquing live betting complaints.

  • "When you bet a number that, you know, it's... It's like, OK, they might not win this, but there's no way the Patriots win this by more than three. They're gonna need a bunch of acts of God to cover that number." – Simon Hunter [13:01]

• Notable trend: Home dogs of 4+ points since 1950 are now 100 ATS ("against the spread"). [15:32]

Patriots Back in the Super Bowl

• Admiration (with a side of loathing) for New England’s swift rebuild (QB/Coach) and run.
  • "We all hate you. You guys are the worst. Congratulations, you're back again to the Super Bowl." – Simon Hunter [10:44]
  • "The crafts fired Gerard Mayo and immediately went to get Mike Vrabel who's a brilliant coach." – Co-host [11:27]

3. NFC Championship: Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams

Game Recap & Turning Points

• Special Teams and the Big Momentum Shift:

  • Rams' catastrophic fumble on punt return in the second half, following their comeback, opens the door for Seahawks.
  • "This game was going back and forth and the Rams had played themselves back into it and they fumble a freaking punt after the first drive in the second half. And that's really what gave the Seahawks the cushion they needed in this game." – Co-host [20:04]

• Sam Darnold’s Performance:

  • Surpassed all expectations (346 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs).
  • Both hosts stunned and mildly delighted for the career backup.
  • "Sam Darnold played out of his mind... I can't believe how good he was in this game. I really am stunned." – Chad Millman [22:23 & 30:09]

Handicapping & Bet Results

• Insight that all the pregame handicapping factors—rest, defense, coaching—took a backseat to in-game events (special teams, individual heroics).
  • "I don't know that any of the handicapping we did for this game was on or not. Right? Like, did the rest matter? Did it not matter? Who knows?" – Co-host [24:21]

Wideouts & Key Stats

• JSN Breakout Game: Jackson Smith-Njigba exploded for 10 catches, 153 yards, and a TD.

  • "It's crazy watching him play, how talented he is ... he's just so good at it all." – Chad Millman [29:12]

• Rams Offseason Dilemma:

  • What to do with Stafford approaching free agency; consensus: must tag or overpay on short deal.
  • "You gotta keep him around for as long as he can possibly move because it's never the arm that goes with these guys." – Co-host [32:39]

Seahawks' Roster Construction Praised

• Noting cost-effective signing of Darnold, moving on from DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett to let JSN shine, and O-line rebuild.
  • "Just amazing. What, what a great turnaround, great story." – Co-host [31:22]

4. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On “Snowpocalypse” Football:

  • "A pox on the house of every cold weather team that is building a dome. It is so freaking glorious." – Chad Millman [04:52]

• On Betting Through Chaos:

  • "Don't watch the games if you can't handle it... but before, during the game, you're out of your mind complaining about this stuff." – Simon Hunter [14:21]

• On Sam Darnold’s Redemption:

  • "Never would I ever seen this coming. The man was a journeyman on a bunch of different teams. He was, he was the backup on Carolina Panthers." – Chad Millman [30:06]

• On Seahawks’ Defensive Blunder and Taunting Penalty:

  • "That was abhorrent and that could have cost them the game if not for sort of the way it played out. But that was, that was just stupid, stupid, stupid." – Co-host [36:36]

• On New England as the NFL’s Example of Luck and Execution:

  • "This is the probably the first time you felt this way since that Brady vs. The Rams super bowl run of the after the tuck rule. Like it just all little miracles went your guys way..." – Simon Hunter [10:44]

5. Super Bowl LX Early Preview

• Promises of a deep-dive preview episode to come.
• Early leanings: Chad is "kind of loving the Seahawks" against New England.
  • "Right now I'm kind of loving the Seahawks." – Co-host [33:34]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Snow Impact & Football Romance: 03:36–04:49
• Denver-New England Nuts & Bolts: 05:48–11:27
• Patriots’ Narrative & Betting Reflection: 13:01–15:32
• AFC Bet Review / Emotional Aftermath: 15:32–19:51
• NFC Recap — Special Teams & Sam Darnold: 20:04–22:52
• JSN’s Big Game & Stafford’s Magic: 24:54–33:09
• Rams’ QB Offseason Dilemma: 32:29–33:34
• Seattle Taunting Penalty “Shame”: 36:36–36:46
• Closing: Standout Bets & Next Episode Tease: 36:54–38:04

Episode Summary Table: Bets by the Hosts

| Bet | Result (W/L) | Commentary | |-------------------------------------|:------------:|-------------------------------------------------------------------------| | Broncos +4.5 (in contest) | Win | Covered the whole way | | Seahawks -2.5 | Win | Special teams play swung the cover | | Over 42.5 (Denver-NE) | Loss | Snow shut down scoring in second half | | Jarrett Stidham over 0.5 INTs | Win | Last throw of the game was a pick | | Jackson Smith-Njigba under 0.5 TDs | Loss | JSN caught a key TD just before half |

Tone & Takeaways

• Upbeat, irreverent, and deeply knowledgeable
• Hosts blend humor, betting wisdom, “Monday Morning QB” takes, and honest self-reflection
• Big on actionable lessons for bettors (“always watch out for home dogs, weather, and the little edges—like special teams”)
• Leaves the audience eagerly anticipating the Super Bowl betting breakdown

Recommended for:

• Listeners seeking sharp, actionable NFL betting insights and unfiltered playoff reactions
• Fans who enjoy spirited, funny, and deeply experienced football conversation

Next episode: Full Super Bowl LX preview: Patriots vs. Seahawks!