FINAL AFC & NFC Conference Championship NFL Playoff Bets: Rams-Seahawks, Patriots-Broncos

Summary

Sharp or Square – Final AFC & NFC Conference Championship NFL Playoff Bets

Podcast: Sharp or Square
Episode Date: January 25, 2026
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Theme: Conference Championship Bets, Prop Picks, Wiseguy Angles

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Episode Overview

Chad Millman and Simon Hunter, seasoned NFL betting experts, break down the AFC and NFC Conference Championship games—Patriots vs. Broncos and Rams vs. Seahawks. The duo shares their “sharp” and “square” perspectives on betting lines, dissect market movement, injury impact, and prop bets, and ultimately lock in their five best contest picks, including sides, totals, and player props.

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Key Discussions & Insights

Conference Week Betting Context

• Chad opens noting the drama of championship week: “It’s the moment before the moment. Will we have the historical moments that we remember forever?” (03:30)
• Both hosts reference the notable recent “that throw” by Caleb Williams and how every playoff cycle can create iconic moments. (03:41–04:20)

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Game 1: New England Patriots at Denver Broncos

Line Analysis & Market Movement

• Line moved from Broncos +5.5 to +3.5, with huge professional money hitting Denver.
• Chad: “Huge, huge move on the Broncos. Professionals just buying in on Jared Stidham.” (05:21)
• Both hosts locked in Denver +4.5 early for their contest.

Handicap & Betting Angles

• Simon: The market found no real drop-off between Bo Nix and Jared Stidham (“Stitty”). “It’s the dream when you make those type of bets...it went complete opposite, right now down to 3.5 or 4.” (06:19)
• Pros keying on Denver’s roster depth and Sean Payton’s history with backup QBs (13-6 ATS). “That’s the MO here with Sean Payton. He gets the guys to rally around the quarterback play.” (08:37)
• Key injuries: Dobbins’ absence hurts Denver’s running game; Patriots may get Mac Hollins back.
• Home dogs 4+ points since the 1950s: 90+ ATS—a trend supporting Denver. (07:25)

Prop Picks

• Chad details his prop card: Stidham over 31.5 pass attempts, over 260 yards, and a parlay including Drake May 40+ rushing yards. (09:18–10:47)
• Simon’s best prop: “The prop I’d give on this show I think is over rushing yards.” (10:04)

Total

• Both like the over; got 42.5 early, now up to 43.5.
• Simon: “I haven’t wavered on the total at all. Both these teams are turned on at any point...just gotta keep an arm’s reach.” (11:27–12:11)

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Game 2: Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks

Line and Setup

• Seahawks -2.5, total down to 45.5.
• This matchup sparked the hottest off-air debate between Chad and Simon. (12:37)
• Chad: “I think we’re still a little bit split, but you had compelling arguments about the Seahawks.” (13:31)

Handicap & Edges

• Rest advantage is everything—a battered, aging Matthew Stafford faces a fresh Seattle squad.
• Simon: “What was gonna be the difference in this matchup?... The rest. If you saw that clip of Caleb Williams...he looked so broken. Go to Stafford who threw the ball more, took more hits, and is now on a short week.” (13:48–14:29)
• Stat: Road underdogs in this playoff spot off overtime games are 9-25 straight up in NFL history, a “death sentence.” (15:22)
• Seahawks’ defense and special teams edge, Rams’ special teams rank in bottom 25%—coaching and kicker turmoil.
• Simon: “I think Seahawks really pay dividends for what they did at the end of the season, which was winning that game against 49ers. Now they’re rested well.” (16:49)
• Chad: “The rest advantage for the Seahawks was the ultimate deciding factor for us choosing that.” (26:12)

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Props Analysis (Contest-Specific)

• Jared Stidham over 0.5 INT:
  • Simon: “It’s now up to -140 in the throw pick. So we’re getting that.” (24:32)
• Jackson Smith-Njigba under 0.5 TD:
  • Simon: “Anytime touchdown minus 110. He has 10 touchdowns this season, four in four games...less than 50% chance he’s scoring. We’re getting a good price on the no.” (24:32–25:10)
• Both props chosen for value and contest leverage.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Simon (on Sean Payton):
  “He gets the guys to rally around the quarterback play. Once again, everyone’s seen these numbers with backup quarterbacks—he’s one of the best coaches ever against the spread.” (08:37)

• Chad (on betting discipline):
  “I’m going like every rule I have for myself during the regular season, breaking during the playoffs. Just for this game.” (09:45)

• Simon (on playoff scheduling math):
  “Teams off overtime wins in the playoffs, 6-13 straight up in the next round when they’re off overtime and at a rest disadvantage. 1-8 straight up in the NFL playoffs history.” (25:38)

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Key Timestamps

• Intro & Playoff Anticipation: 03:06–04:20
• Patriots at Broncos Line/Handicap: 05:21–09:18
• Player Prop Discussion: 09:18–11:12
• Game Total: 11:12–12:11
• Rams at Seahawks Handicap/Rest Factor: 12:37–17:37
• Props Contest Rationale: 23:15–25:50
• Rapid Recap of Picks: 26:00–26:35

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Final Five Picks (Contest)

1. Denver Broncos +4.5 (recommendation: play at +3.5/+4 if available)
2. OVER 42.5 Patriots/Broncos (like up to 43.5)
3. Seattle Seahawks -2.5 (brass balls bet of the week)
4. Jared Stidham to throw an interception (o0.5 INT)
5. Jackson Smith-Njigba to NOT score a touchdown (u0.5 TD)

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Closing Thoughts

Chad and Simon’s final words echo the anticipation of championship Sunday and the satisfaction of having made sharp, value-driven plays. Stay tuned for their results and postseason wrap-up after the games.

“We are much more invested across the board in the Broncos’ success today...should be an exciting day.” – Chad Millman (26:12)

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For bettors and fans alike, this episode serves as a masterclass in finding edges, using sharp logic, and understanding playoff market movement. Listen on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts for the full, unabridged discussion.

Transcript

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[Chad Millman]

Is US Olympic gold medalist Tara Davis.

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[Simon Hunter]

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[Chad Millman]

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[Chad Millman]

Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rock Bat. We are part of the Volume Podcast network. This is the betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined as always by my bff, my companion, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.

[Simon Hunter]

Chad. We made the game day. I, I love these type of moments because it's, it's the moment before the moment. Will we have the historical moments that we remember forever? You know the catch, the helmet catch.

[Chad Millman]

That's right.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah. The, you know, it's, it's. I honestly, I was, I was joking the buddy. If, if the Bears had won and obviously gone through, what would we have called Caleb Williams play? I said the throw because I'm trying to think, is there anything else even comparable? When you say, did you see that Caleb throw? For now, for the next couple years, I feel like everyone's going to mention that fourth down play. The throw might stick. Obviously we'll move on because it, it didn't lead to anything, but it's like the Immaculate Reception. All these amazing names we have for football. I know that Caleb play so far these playoffs, that's the only one I could think of that was like a historical name. That play type of play.

[Chad Millman]

Simon, as an editor, I would make one adjustment to what you're calling it, which I think is brilliant. I would call it that throw. That throw, that throw, that Caleb throw. Well, unfortunately we don't get the Bears. We get an aging quarterback off of an overtime game and short rest against a quarterback who is taking painkilling shots for an oblique. We get a backup quarterback against a second year quarterback who is trying to take his team to the super bowl and revive an entire community here in New England. It is time to get into it, my friend. It's the conference championship version of the semi strip down in the room, Sharper Square in which Simon and I are going to nail down the five picks. A lot of injury talk, a lot of line move talk. If you're in the contest, you can track us at chat at Simon, Chad Simon, BFFs. Are you ready, Simon?

[Simon Hunter]

Let's go, buddy.

[Chad Millman]

All right. So this first game is just fascinating, right? The New England Patriots visiting the Denver Broncos. Huge line move. The line is now three and a half four at Hard Rock, but three and a half and a lot of other places. Total is 43 and a half. Simon says was Denver at plus five and a half. The line move has been so big that I got an alert from ESPN yesterday that it is down to three and a half at most places. Also, the total has come up from 40 and a half. Huge, huge move on the Broncos professionals. Just buying in on Jared Stidham that basically they're realizing, wait a second, there's just not a big enough difference between Bo Nix and Jared stidham. We have 100% put the Broncos in. Into our play in the contest because they were at four and a half in the contest. So we're invested. We're just invested in the Broncos in every way.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, it's. It's nice. Obviously we didn't win on Pittsburgh in the first round, but, you know, gave out Pittsburgh three and a half. You only time you could ever got that number last week gave out Denver plus one and a half. Only times we get that number in this week, Denver plus five and a half. So, you know, hopefully we can get. Get another win here on Denver at a good number. But this is. This is what you dream of when you make those type of bets. Right. I went really heavy on Denver. Thank God it didn't go up the other way. Right. That's always scary when it goes up to the six and six and a half. The other way it went complete opposite. Right now it's down to three and a half four, which is exactly what we predicted and we hope to see. And I think people are like us, right. They're starting to see the matchup isn't that bad for Denver as much as they might struggle the quarterback position here. Right. The rest of the team is so complete fleet, you expected to carry them. And just for one game. The guys run around. The quarterback here feels like the type of game where it could easily happen. And I'm happy to see that I wasn't total off when I said this number probably should be three, three and a half. The books have finally come around their senses and reflected that. And even our futures we talked. You could have got Denver 13, 1, 14 1. It's basically 10 to 1 now at every book, right?

[Chad Millman]

Yeah.

[Simon Hunter]

The pros have kind of watched a tape on Cinem this week. Stitty is what everyone's calling them. It's come way down. And that's. That's the dream for us. Right? So I won't bore people with all the numbers. Once again, I mean, since 1950s, dogs home dogs are for four points or more at home. Since 1950s, people 90 against the spread. So hoping that continues for us. Chad, we love the number here and we're just really into Patriots. They are a good team. They do deserve to be here. They're a tad bit overrated by the general public. The line reflected that. The number went up too high too quick. The books, just like I am, are very happy in their position. Right. Can we lose this bet? Of course. It's. It's a coin flip. You never know what can happen, right? It's. It's sports. But I feel like our early read was right here with back in this Denver team and just the fact that this is a good matchup for them at home. You know, Sean Payton, once again, everyone's seen these numbers with backup quarterbacks. He's one of the best coaches ever against the spread, right? He's 13 and 6 against the spread with a backup quarterback. So we, we remember the days with Teddy Bridgewater. Came in after Drew Brees. Got banged up and played really well and kept covering. And it's just the kind of the mo here with Sean Payton. He gets the guys to rally around the quarterback play. So unfortunately for us, Chad, I, I did bank on Franklin being back. I don't know if he'll play. He's been limited all week with the hamstring. The big one that hurt to me is the Dobbins. I really thought Domino was gonna make a run at it to running back for Denver, which again, not the biggest deal. Like you said, he. It wasn't like he was going to play a ton of snaps anyway. To me it was just a big deal because he is just a leader of that team. Everyone on the team loves Dobbins, so at least you'll be on the sideline. But a big miss for them when not getting diamonds back. On the flip side, looks like Mac Mac Hollins might be back here for the Patriots, which is a big deal for them as well. And you know, as much as that hurts us on the spread, I think that helps us with the total, which we also like here. So nothing's wavered for me. Chad. Still really confident Broncos team and still my favorite bet this week.

[Chad Millman]

I have also heavily invested in Jared Stidham props. I'm over his 31 and a half passing attempts.

[Simon Hunter]

Okay.

[Chad Millman]

I think I did an alt over his 260 passing yards. I also did a. A single game. I'm going like every rule that I, that I have for myself during the regular season I am breaking during the playoffs. Just because, just for this game. Specifically for this game.

[Simon Hunter]

It's one game actually. I mean honestly it doesn't come compare. Like this is probably gonna be my biggest bet of the season. This Denver on this number. But I'm like you, I did some props. I would say the prop I'd give on this show I think is over rushing yards. I mean that's.

[Chad Millman]

I took drake may over 40 rushing. Let me just finish because the parlay I did that the SGP I did was stid him over 260 passing yards, Stidham over 30. It's 32 plus passing attempts and Drake may 40 plus rushing yards. Because I don't think we talked about this on the show. With J.K. dobbins out. I think that Sean Payton builds a game plan where he's just leaning into Jared stidham. He had 11 rushing attempts. Called 11 rushing attempts in that overtime game against the Bills. The Patriots rushing defense is dominant. It lines up for Stidham who has never had fewer than 32 pass attempts in his four starts to just sling the ball.

[Simon Hunter]

And it could just be what they go back to which is Champagne's offense of if they don't run it, they're happy champions. Happy at three or four three or four yard completion. This is Drew Breed. Drew Brees. Days that's been. Is that like.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, that's right.

[Simon Hunter]

If he doesn't like the look with the run, he'll have the QB check out it and just take the 3 yard 4 yard completion. Just keep the sticks moving. So I don't hate that bet by you at all.

[Chad Millman]

We're also on the over. We had better than 42 and a half in the contest. That's what's been available. It's now at 43 and a half. Do you have a strong opinion? 43 is a key number. So do you have a strong opinion now that it's over 43 and a half.

[Simon Hunter]

No, still on it. Like you. I, I wish I had hammered this one on Tuesday. Sure it was 40 or 40 and a half. And my, my feeling was though it was right that most guys will look at this game that there could be turnovers by both these quarterbacks. Right. These are both inexperienced quarterbacks. One's making his first playoffs are the ones making his first road playoff start. There's got to be some nerves and some jitters. So we expect short fields. And we've seen Drake may been really good in the red zone. He tends to score touchdowns. And on the flip side, you've seen Champagne scheming up that his team's got the red zone. They tend to score as well. So I haven't wavered on the total at all. It's the type of game too where it feels like if it's even 16, 14 head into the fourth quarter, you could see a ton of points.

[Chad Millman]

Totally.

[Simon Hunter]

It seems like both these teams are turned on at any point, so we just got to keep an arm's reach. If it's ten, three and a half, I'm not gonna be lying. I'll be a little worried about this total if it's at the beginning because again, either of these quarterbacks we talked about could lay an easily lay an egg. Right? It's two defenses that have been playing really well, especially, you know, down the stretch for Denver and in the playoffs for this Patriots team. So I can't wait to see what happens this one. But yeah, nice to see the pros are with us. Right? This number's been bed up all week.

[Chad Millman]

Los Angeles Rams at the Seattle Seahawks. The line is still two and a half. The totals come down just a touch 45 and a half. This was our biggest debate of the week, to the point where you and I chatted yesterday and had a long conversation about it. I think we're still a little bit split, but on the call yesterday you had some really compelling arguments about the Seattle Seahawks and that is why the Seattle Seahawks at minus two and a half are going to be our brass ball. Better the week presented by Hard Rock. Bet you know what it takes.

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[Chad Millman]

The Seattle Seahawks going in the contest at minus two and a half share with everybody. Simon, what you told me yesterday to convince me that it was time to pull the trigger on the Seahawks, at least for the contest, I mean, there's.

[Simon Hunter]

A lot of things I feel like at the end of the day, what we've talked about when both these teams are so evenly matched, when you talk about how they played two games this year and both decided by two points and one point, that it's been that close of a margin, what was going to be the difference in this matchup? Right. If these two teams know each other so well, I ship trying to beat your head over. The rest. The rest to me is gonna be the big deciding factor in this game and how these teams hold up especially in the second half. And what I brought up to Chad was if he saw that clip, I don't know if any, anyone else has seen it of Caleb Williams at the Blackhawks game walking up the stairs to leave the Blackhawks game and he basically looked like a 50 year old man or I shouldn't even say that. 80 year old man walking up the stairs.

[Chad Millman]

I was gonna say 50 year old men, they can be spry.

[Simon Hunter]

They can. But they can look beat up after getting hit, hit up, hit around a couple, couple rounds. But he just looked so broken like he basically was holding the handrail all the way up and just looked like every step was aching pain. Okay, Caleb Williams is what, 23, 24 years old. Go to the flip side, go to Stafford who threw the ball more, take more hits in that game and is now in a short week on the road once again playing a Seahawks team that was is basically well rested. Basically have played three quarters in three weeks. Like you couldn't have dreamed of a better scenario for this yog's team. And it's like that static keep giving out to people underdogs in this exact spot, 9 and 25 straight up in the history of the NFL. It just if you're in overtime in the playoffs and you're on the road now and you have worse rest than your team you're playing against, it's a death sentence. It's just so much overcome. So Ken Stafford overcome it? Of course. I mean he, if any quarterback can play well against Seahawks defense has been Stafford. He has lit them up. On the flip side, Darnold has struggled against this Seahawks team but I think people are reading way too much into it like these teams are not, not the same teams they were last time they played. They've changed so much not just because of health wise, but just their identity. Where I really think the Seahawks team has found something in the sense that they know they just need to lean into the defense. They just know that like it just feels like they've totally shifted that way where it's they've kind of taken the ball out of San Darnold's hands. I, I don't see them going for it on 4th and twos, 4th and threes. I, I think they're going to punt, play it safe. On the flip side, I think McVay goes for every fourth down. I think he's highly aggressive. I once again think that plays in the Seahawks hands like this Defense, they will get stopped. So yeah, this was a tough one. Like I said, a lot of background. I would say whatever confidence you did have in the Rams, I have much more in the Seahawks. And that kind of won the battle in our argument. And yeah, this, that's where I know it's kind of boring picking both one seeds here, but picking them both for such different unique situations and reasoning. And the biggest win here for the Seahawks team is I, I just feel like they are going to really pay dividends for what they did at the end of the season, which was winning that game against 49ers. Now they've rested well. This, this, you know, this Rams team, they blew that game against the Seahawks, they blew that game against the Eagles. And we knew eventually it come back and bite them. I think this is the end to come back some bite them. Like this is just such a horrible spot to be in and they have no one to blame themselves. Right. They could have been at home in this exact scenario themselves. Instead, they're on their fourth straight road game going into a hostile environment. And to me, a game something we haven't talked enough about was the special teams matchup. The Rams. Oh yeah, my model, they've been in the bottom 25 all year and special.

[Chad Millman]

They fired their coach like at the end of the season, before the season.

[Simon Hunter]

Was over, and got rid of their kicker because he kept missing field goals. And on the flip side, Seahawks, they're my number three graded special teams. And once again we talk about how small these margins are going to be. These things keep adding up and it's just like how does not all of this favor the Seahawks team? So, yeah, I'm obviously nowhere near as confident I am in the Broncos compared to Seahawks team, but I love this bet. I'm happy we're getting this one. The contest.

[Chad Millman]

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[Chad Millman]

We've talked about the sides and the totals in the contest that we're playing. There are props that are some of the choices. Just because we need to make five Picks and there's only two sides and two totals. So in the contest, the props include for the Patriots and Broncos, Jared Stidham over or under half an interception. So Will here, won't he throw an interception? Drake May over under. I think it was a touchdown. And for this, because we expect Stidham, who hasn't played obviously in a couple of years, to be slinging it. We like Stidham over the half an interception. So we like him to throw an interception. In the Rams and the Seahawks, the options were stafford over under 39 and a half yards for his longest path and Jackson, Smith and Jigma in. Jigba over under half a touchdown. We decided to go with, with Jackson, Smith and Jigba under half a touchdown. Basically no touchdown. Simon, I thought you just had really good logic on why we were making that choice. I want you to explain it to everybody sort of mathematically because you're thinking about it as professional better, not just sort of as what might happen on the field.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, we, we love steady. It's just we're playing the math like Chad just said. It's. It's now up to minus 140 in the throat pick. So we're getting that. And JSN, another guy where, you know, anytime touchdown minus 110. Sure, that's fair. If you go through it okay, he has 10 touchdowns this season, four in four games. He scored two touchdowns. So I mean, I'm no mathematician. You guys can do the math. It's, it's less than 50 chance that he's going to score a touchdown. These games, if you just go based off this season, he's being priced as if it's, you know, basically better than 50. And if you look at the math as well, it's minus 150 for a no touchdown in our contest. Like you, Chad said, we're getting minus 110. So it's, it's a good, it's two, two really logical good bets. And yeah, I just, you know, as much as we love Seattle, we think JSN has a possibility to score. There's other pieces on their team. They're going to focus on here and where you think the Rams, that'll be the guy. They'll be focused on a takeaway. So I love both our props. And one more thing. I'll get out of here. I forgot to mention our guy, Evan Abrams. Just one more stat I'll give out before we give out here. Teams of overtime wins in the playoffs, 6 and 13 straight up in the next round when they're off overtime and at a rest disadvantage. One and eight straight up in the NFL playoffs history. It's just once again a brutal, brutal spot for this Rams team.

[Chad Millman]

All right, so our final five, we're going with the Denver Broncos. We got them at four and a half in the contest. They're at three and a half. We still like them at three and a half. We are, we are much more invested in the Broncos and the Broncos success today and try to find the four though than any. Yeah, you can get some fours. We are much more invested across the board in the Broncos success. We're also on this game over 42 and a half in the contest. It's a 43 and a half. Most places still like the total. There we are on the Seahawks. That's our brass balls. Better the week at minus two and a half. The rest advantage for the Seahawks was the ultimate deciding factor for us choosing that. And then we put in two props into the contest. Jared Stidham to throw an interception and Jackson, Smith and Jigba to not score a touchdown. Those are the five. We will be back later tonight. Our final Sunday show. Sunday evening show of the year. This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast network. The show will come on after after the Rams Seahawks game. We're going to recap all the glory and misery of the day. Should be an exciting day. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Also download us on Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe, Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want until tonight. Love you.

[Simon Hunter]

The road to the super bowl is like a mythic quest. It's a demanding journey, an adventure that creates heroes.

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