Sharp or Square – Final AFC & NFC Conference Championship NFL Playoff Bets

Podcast: Sharp or Square
Episode Date: January 25, 2026
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Theme: Conference Championship Bets, Prop Picks, Wiseguy Angles

Episode Overview

Chad Millman and Simon Hunter, seasoned NFL betting experts, break down the AFC and NFC Conference Championship games—Patriots vs. Broncos and Rams vs. Seahawks. The duo shares their “sharp” and “square” perspectives on betting lines, dissect market movement, injury impact, and prop bets, and ultimately lock in their five best contest picks, including sides, totals, and player props.

Key Discussions & Insights

Conference Week Betting Context

• Chad opens noting the drama of championship week: “It’s the moment before the moment. Will we have the historical moments that we remember forever?” (03:30)
• Both hosts reference the notable recent “that throw” by Caleb Williams and how every playoff cycle can create iconic moments. (03:41–04:20)

Game 1: New England Patriots at Denver Broncos

Line Analysis & Market Movement

• Line moved from Broncos +5.5 to +3.5, with huge professional money hitting Denver.
• Chad: “Huge, huge move on the Broncos. Professionals just buying in on Jared Stidham.” (05:21)
• Both hosts locked in Denver +4.5 early for their contest.

Handicap & Betting Angles

• Simon: The market found no real drop-off between Bo Nix and Jared Stidham (“Stitty”). “It’s the dream when you make those type of bets...it went complete opposite, right now down to 3.5 or 4.” (06:19)
• Pros keying on Denver’s roster depth and Sean Payton’s history with backup QBs (13-6 ATS). “That’s the MO here with Sean Payton. He gets the guys to rally around the quarterback play.” (08:37)
• Key injuries: Dobbins’ absence hurts Denver’s running game; Patriots may get Mac Hollins back.
• Home dogs 4+ points since the 1950s: 90+ ATS—a trend supporting Denver. (07:25)

Prop Picks

• Chad details his prop card: Stidham over 31.5 pass attempts, over 260 yards, and a parlay including Drake May 40+ rushing yards. (09:18–10:47)
• Simon’s best prop: “The prop I’d give on this show I think is over rushing yards.” (10:04)

Total

• Both like the over; got 42.5 early, now up to 43.5.
• Simon: “I haven’t wavered on the total at all. Both these teams are turned on at any point...just gotta keep an arm’s reach.” (11:27–12:11)

Game 2: Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks

Line and Setup

• Seahawks -2.5, total down to 45.5.
• This matchup sparked the hottest off-air debate between Chad and Simon. (12:37)
• Chad: “I think we’re still a little bit split, but you had compelling arguments about the Seahawks.” (13:31)

Handicap & Edges

• Rest advantage is everything—a battered, aging Matthew Stafford faces a fresh Seattle squad.
• Simon: “What was gonna be the difference in this matchup?... The rest. If you saw that clip of Caleb Williams...he looked so broken. Go to Stafford who threw the ball more, took more hits, and is now on a short week.” (13:48–14:29)
• Stat: Road underdogs in this playoff spot off overtime games are 9-25 straight up in NFL history, a “death sentence.” (15:22)
• Seahawks’ defense and special teams edge, Rams’ special teams rank in bottom 25%—coaching and kicker turmoil.
• Simon: “I think Seahawks really pay dividends for what they did at the end of the season, which was winning that game against 49ers. Now they’re rested well.” (16:49)
• Chad: “The rest advantage for the Seahawks was the ultimate deciding factor for us choosing that.” (26:12)

Props Analysis (Contest-Specific)

• Jared Stidham over 0.5 INT:
  • Simon: “It’s now up to -140 in the throw pick. So we’re getting that.” (24:32)
• Jackson Smith-Njigba under 0.5 TD:
  • Simon: “Anytime touchdown minus 110. He has 10 touchdowns this season, four in four games...less than 50% chance he’s scoring. We’re getting a good price on the no.” (24:32–25:10)
• Both props chosen for value and contest leverage.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Simon (on Sean Payton):
  “He gets the guys to rally around the quarterback play. Once again, everyone’s seen these numbers with backup quarterbacks—he’s one of the best coaches ever against the spread.” (08:37)

• Chad (on betting discipline):
  “I’m going like every rule I have for myself during the regular season, breaking during the playoffs. Just for this game.” (09:45)

• Simon (on playoff scheduling math):
  “Teams off overtime wins in the playoffs, 6-13 straight up in the next round when they’re off overtime and at a rest disadvantage. 1-8 straight up in the NFL playoffs history.” (25:38)

Key Timestamps

• Intro & Playoff Anticipation: 03:06–04:20
• Patriots at Broncos Line/Handicap: 05:21–09:18
• Player Prop Discussion: 09:18–11:12
• Game Total: 11:12–12:11
• Rams at Seahawks Handicap/Rest Factor: 12:37–17:37
• Props Contest Rationale: 23:15–25:50
• Rapid Recap of Picks: 26:00–26:35

Final Five Picks (Contest)

1. Denver Broncos +4.5 (recommendation: play at +3.5/+4 if available)
2. OVER 42.5 Patriots/Broncos (like up to 43.5)
3. Seattle Seahawks -2.5 (brass balls bet of the week)
4. Jared Stidham to throw an interception (o0.5 INT)
5. Jackson Smith-Njigba to NOT score a touchdown (u0.5 TD)

Closing Thoughts

Chad and Simon’s final words echo the anticipation of championship Sunday and the satisfaction of having made sharp, value-driven plays. Stay tuned for their results and postseason wrap-up after the games.

“We are much more invested across the board in the Broncos’ success today...should be an exciting day.” – Chad Millman (26:12)

For bettors and fans alike, this episode serves as a masterclass in finding edges, using sharp logic, and understanding playoff market movement. Listen on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts for the full, unabridged discussion.