Sharp or Square – NFL Divisional Round Final Bets

Podcast: Sharp or Square
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Date: January 17, 2026

Episode Overview

In this episode of "Sharp or Square," betting analyst Chad Millman and pro gambler Simon Hunter break down their final five NFL betting picks for the Divisional Round, including sides and totals for Rams-Panthers, Packers-Bears, Niners-Eagles, and Chargers-Patriots. The duo balances sharp/pro action with public tendencies, dives into injury news, and applies trend-based insights to find value — all while keeping things fun and personal.

Key Picks & Betting Discussion

1. Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: UNDER 45.5

[06:01], [18:25], [31:16]

• Chad’s pick: Under 45.5 for SEA/SF. Line is moving; seen as low as 44.5.

• Reasoning: Both offenses favored to run-heavy approach, injuries limiting Niners, especially with questions around Sam Darnold.

• Simon’s confidence: Likes the under even more due to injury news. Notes the trend that “when two teams have gone grossly under in the regular season, the third time goes over 57% of the time,” but isn’t buying it this year.

  “I just cannot see Sam Darnold missing this game. If anything, he'll do ... whatever he needs to do and just get out there and play on one leg.”—Simon [08:34]

• Notable trends:

  • Public has hammered the under; pros are on Seahawks and the over.
  • “Public wins more in the playoffs. That stuff doesn’t matter as much.” —Chad [07:12]

• Market advice: If you see 45.5, take it before further downward movement.

2. New England Patriots -3.5 vs Houston Texans

[09:06], [29:55], [31:16]

• Simon’s stance: Confident in Patriots despite Houston’s defense. Cites professional money justifying the move from -3 to -3.5.

  • “If there is a team that could go up to New England and pull off an upset, no doubt it is this Houston team. But really... everything feels like [favorite] system one team.” —Simon [09:53]
  • “Drake May as a favorite of 3 or more: 10-0 straight up, 9-2 against the spread.” —Simon [10:13]

• Analytical notes:

  • Houston has won 10 straight, now a road underdog—a bad spot historically (0-4 straight up, 1-3 ATS for such teams in playoff divisional round).
  • Patriots have a proven deep passing game edge against Houston’s coverage.

• Betting preference: Simon leans towards moneyline for big investment but fine with -3.5 in contests.

3. New England Patriots vs Houston Texans: UNDER 40.5

[18:02], [31:16]

• Core logic: Weaknesses at receiver for Houston (Nico Collins injury) plus Patriots' defensive boost (Christian Gonzalez returns).

  • “I just, I can't see CJ having a career day here without his guy Nico Collins.” —Simon [18:35]

• Weather: Potential for further under movement if weather worsens.

4. San Francisco 49ers +7.5 vs Seattle Seahawks

[13:13], [15:20], [17:32], [31:16]

• Consensus: Both hosts back the Niners at +7.5, loving the number with the line at 7 in the contest.

  • “Everyone I've talked to professionally and public-wise is on this Niners team...” —Simon [15:34]
  • “Teams that were dogs in the wild card round and now again in divisionals: 3-22 straight up, 13-12 ATS since 2003.” —Simon [17:42]
  • “We might get burned here Chad, but long-term, this would be a winner.” —Simon [17:58]

• Contest value: Exceptional number for contest purposes.

5. Los Angeles Rams -4.5 at Chicago Bears

[19:55], [29:55], [30:21], [31:16]

• Simon’s favorite: Rams, particularly 1st half (-2.5), best value early.

  • “My bigger bets are Rams first half and the under for the first half... I'm a little gun shy with this Bears second half, they burned me for so much money last week.” —Simon [20:55]

• Chad’s historical note:

  • “Forty years ago this week, Bears last played the Rams in the playoffs. I was at that game with my buddy Matt… watching it together in Miami this time.” —Chad [19:55]
  • Bears have now staged 7 comebacks when trailing inside 2 minutes, an NFL record [21:45].

• Official contest pick: Rams -4.5.

  • “If the Bears win, I’ve emotionally hedged. I’m totally fine.” —Chad [30:25]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On emotional hedging and contest picks:

  “If I lose this game because the Bears won, I've emotionally hedged. I'm totally fine.” —Chad [30:25]

• On contest pressure and making hard choices:

  “We might get burned here, Chad, but long-term this would be a winner. ... Let's take it, especially in contest if it's 7.5. That's gonna be a hard choice to pass on that number.” —Simon [17:58]

• On playoff tension:

  “At this time of year it's hard not to have the fan in us. I think both fans of us want the Bears and the Bills to both win.”—Simon [30:12]

Timestamps for Core Segments

• [02:20] — Episode start; hosts greet and set the Divisional Round stage.
• [06:01] — First breakdown: Seahawks/49ers under.
• [09:06] — Patriots vs Texans side and trend analysis.
• [13:13] — Chad discusses his Miami trip and Hard Rock experiences.
• [15:20] — 49ers injury news and handicap detailed.
• [18:02] — Confirmed picks: Houston/NE and under.
• [19:55] — Rams at Bears preview, historical context, and stat oddities.
• [21:38] — “Rock and a Hard Place Bet of the Week” revealed: Rams/Bears first half under.
• [28:04] — Final contest pick debate: Denver/Buffalo or stick with Rams.
• [31:16] — Final recap: The Five Official Picks.

Recap: Final Five Picks

1. Seahawks/49ers UNDER 45.5
2. 49ers +7.5
3. Patriots -3.5
4. Patriots/Texans UNDER 40.5
5. Rams -4.5
— [31:16]

Tone & Final Thoughts

The hosts keep things energetic, conversational, and personal, mixing sharp insights with the raw nerves of playoff betting. Chad’s nostalgia and Simon’s self-deprecating humor lighten up the tense handicapping. There’s a repeated emphasis on contest value and line movement, plus plenty of “ride or die” attitude about sticking to numbers and not overthinking playoff chaos.

For full discussions, trends, and rationale behind every bet, this episode packs a wealth of actionable insights for Divisional Round wagering.