B (2:20)

Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock Bat. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper, makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Melman. I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my BFF Professional. Better. Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.

A (2:42)

Chad. How we doing, dude?

B (2:44)

Look, I'm about to embark on a few days of an adventure. I feel like I, I feel so freaking lucky. I cannot tell you. I'll be in Miami. Two of my closest buddies, Andy and Matt, who grew up with me, we all grew up together outside Chicago. We all went to Indiana. We're all going to be at the game on Monday night. We'll be there for the Bears game on Sunday night. These are like, honest to God, not to get sentimental, just glorious opportunities and weekends that just don't come around that often. So. I'm ready to roll, brother. Ready to roll. Are you?

A (3:32)

Yeah. No, I, I mean, like we talk a lot of times, the best time of year, if you love good football, right. It's the highest level being played and you're just fortunate enough that both your two favorite teams are still here playing. And it is. Let's see the date. January 17th. I can't believe it. Chad's in the, the finals for the, the playoffs with his Indiana Hoosiers and the Bears. It's a real possibility where we're sitting here next week and they're playing for, you know, a championship of their own conference. It's. It's a crazy time right now for Chad and a lot of, like you said, a lot of Chicago fans, a lot of them have ties to Indiana. So of course it's, it's a, it's a great time for the Midwest.

B (4:08)

This man cometh. Go, Caleb. This divisional weekend version of the strip down in the room. Eavesdropping. Sharper Square. We're going to narrow it down to final five picks. A lot of injury conversations, whether lines being impacted. You can see the dynamic contest line. Simon and I are playing at the free Sharper Square pro football pickup contest. If you've signed up to play@sharpersquare.the volume.com you can track us in the contest at chad and Simon BFFs. Don't forget, we're playing both sides and totals in the contest. Simon, we will lock in based on all the games. So we're going to talk about all the games. There's only four of them. We're going to go in order of what I think our top five are right now, not in the order of the schedule. So Seattle, San Francisco, under 45 and a half. This was Chad's choice. It continued to tick down. It's at 45 in some places, 44 and a half. Elsewhere it is 45 and a half in the contest, I think it's ticked down maybe because of the Darnold news. I'm leaking a little bit of confidence. Something tells me that. I know. Well, I know from killer sports there's a trend that when two teams have gone grossly under in the two times they've played, the third time goes over. But I just can't see schematically between the way the Seahawks are going to want to play this game and some of the limitations the Niners have on offense with the personnel on the field. This game feels like it should go under to me. So I'm still on the under. I want you to make me feel really good about it.

A (6:01)

Yeah. Still on with you. But I saw that stat, too. I think it's like basically, if you blindly bet the over here, it's a 57 success rate. Yes. That's. It's just a long term. Like Chad said, these two. Two teams, technically, maybe that's what we've been missing here. Right. Because we both could not understand this total. And, you know, it's in the playoffs, especially the week we're coming off of. I feel like every bet we're going to make is gonna have a little leak of confidence here. I'm dug in on it. I. I still think then there's a play. If anything, seeing the Sam Darnold news, I don't know about you, but it made me even happier for our bet early down the under just because, I mean, think about how much they use his legs outside the pocket and, you know, get different looks from the defenses. Because it's. We talked about all year, the San Darno has not played well, but where he has played well is within the offense. Get it to jsn. That's been the key. Right. So for when anytime the plays break down, he uses his legs. He's always looking for jsn, his best receiver. And it's been magical for them. Right. Every time they need a third down, it feels like he finds that guy. So, you know, as soon as I saw that injury news, I did think this would pop at six and a half. It seems like the way they're talking, it's not. They're trying to make it out to be not as serious and the books reflect that. But like, we're gonna go through it here, like all how the public's been, everything like that. This is a game where the public has been hammering this under and they've been hammering the Niners and the pros have been hammering the Seahawks and they've been Hammering the over. So we're definitely on the public side here. We talked last week, though the public does win the playoffs. That stuff doesn't really matter as much. And, you know, here I am still shocked to be seeing the 7. I'm still shocked to see. It's heaven. But we talked about. It's just there's that many injuries for the 49ers, right? They're that banged up. The books have to hang this one. So, yeah, if we're. If I had to pick a number here, if I had to say, well, I'm more confident on the seven or more confident under, I would go with the under. I mean, if you have to pick a side here, obviously I'm going the 49ers, but I still really like the under. Playing just about both. I see these offenses playing right. I think they're both going to try to lean heavy into the run for this matchup on ball control. So, yeah, this one, like you said, it's ticked down was 46. Now a lot of books are showing 45. Couple of them are already moving to 44 and a half this, this morning. So once, once again, we see if Sam Darno is fully cleared. You know, we get the guy on the sideline before and saying, yeah, he's running well, he's looking good. This could steam up another point again. So I wouldn't be upset if you missed it. If your book shown 45 and a half or 44 and a half. I, I do think I might be able to get back to 46, but I would grab the 45 and a half now just to be safe. If, if he does go out there and it's not right and they do have to start Drew Locke. This might steam down 4 or 5 points on the total and maybe 3, 4 points on the side. So we're all waiting bated breath here to hear what's going on with Sam Darnold, but I just. I cannot see him missing this game. If anything, he'll do what we've seen these other quarterbacks do, right? Take the shot, whatever he needs to do, and just get out there and play on one leg. It's just this is what he just played for 18 weeks to get to. I just can't see Sam Darnle missing this game. I.

B (9:06)

Well, that the under was Chad's choice, so I got a feeling it's going to make it into our final five. The other day, you surprised me with a complete 180. I don't know if there was bullying involved from the professionals or not and committed to the Patriots potentially being one of your biggest bets for the weekend. Patriots at minus three that minus three and a half at Hard Rock bet right now. I mean Miko Conla is not playing is a factor, but it's just, it's a challenging one because this Texans defense is so good. So give me your current take. Are you still leaning into the Patriots as field goal favorites?

A (9:53)

Yeah, still leaning into it. You know we've talked a little bit about it where just Houston defense, they are historically great. If there is a team that could go up to New England and pull off an upset, no doubt it is this Houston team. But it really is one of the games where you break it all down and you look at the different trends. Everything it feels like favorite system, one team. I mean we've obviously all seen this, this trend with Drake may as a favorite 3 points or more 110 straight up 9 and 2 against the spread. Even when you pull it back even further. This Texas team, they've won 10 straight games. In the history of the NFL, teams that have won 10 straight games are now they're an underdog Divisional Round 0 and 4 straight up 1 and 3 against the spread in that exact interesting. Yeah and it's just we talk at the time how rare it is, right. A team is 110 straight and now they're bigger than a three point dog on the road with a team that's great as a number two defense. It's not shocking to see how the split the bets are here. The public side definitely is the Patriots, right. You've seen even the start of the week the more the public money was coming on this Patriots team. But we finally seen some professional money coming on this Patriots team and drive it up to three and a half when it's been sitting at three all week. It's starting to slowly move up now to three and a half. And you know we talked, we love the total. There still are 41s up there. I mean Hard Rock here in jersey still 41. That's another line that started ticking down a little bit, right? It's, it's come down now a couple books down to 40 and a half and another game you could see if there's you know, a little bit of weather could easily drop below 40. So points gonna be really tight here and we've talked a little bit about it. I, I just have so many questions with this Houston team where you know my questions I do have about Drake Bay and this New England offense. I still think they're gonna move the ball as good as this Houston defense has been. The one real weakness they've had is deep ball passing and teams that can attack the ball downfield. Drake May is number two, I believe, in graded balls downfield. And he was number one on EPA per play on balls throwing 20 yards downfield. Like, he's been really impressive putting the ball downfield. If that's the only real weakness, this Houston defense, you expect him to exploit it like that? I mean, we, we didn't talk too much about the Pittsburgh game, but Aaron Rodgers, he had guys downfield. He just didn't have the time. Right. He never had the time because he can't use his legs.

B (12:12)

And there were some drops.

A (12:14)

Yeah, I mean, that one that stands out. The huge thing to me is that DK Metcalf. Yeah, brutal.

B (12:20)

Change the game. Change the game.

A (12:22)

Be a touchdown. And then he didn't go to him for about 2 quarters after that. So, you know, looking at this matchup, there are ways for them to attack it. And yeah, if, if the number scares you off terribly. Honestly, my biggest investment is once I heard those trends and the numbers about the money line, I've really invested heavily in New England's money line. So once again, shop around, get the three. You don't have to take the three and a half. We're stuck with a three and a half in a contest. I don't hate it because we're having a tough time finding the five here, but yeah, I, I think this is the type of game where Patriots just roll. Not just offensively, defensively. With Variable and Houston, you know, we've seen CJ struggle on the road. I think losing Nico is gonna be too much for him to overcome here. So it's, it's a really interesting match of the fact that this number. I was sitting at three all week, and now we're heading into Saturday here and it's finally getting professional money. Get bumped at minus three and a half.

B (13:13)

Simon. You know, as soon as we're done here, I'm taking off to see the Indiana Hoosiers playing the National College Football Championship game at the very cool and famous Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. And thanks to our friends at Hard Rock bet, I will be there live. The best place to stay when you're down there in Florida, Hard Rock Hotel and Casino, Hollywood, Florida. It is the closest place. Also, the guitar hotel there is incredible. I've stayed there, I played there. That's why it's the grand prize in our pro football pick them contest. Some lucky winners can get to experience that as well. I'll be in the sports book. I'm going to be soaking it all in. I'm going to be using the top rated Hard Rock Bet app when I'm not there so I can hammer the Hoosiers. It's the only legal sports betting app available in the state of Florida. Say hello to me. They'll be handing out profit boost tokens to use on the game and select VIPs are getting instant bonus bets dropped right into their accounts. Be sure to check it out. Can't wait to get down there. See folks at the Hard Rock Hotel and Casino, San Francisco, Seattle. The number we just touched on it. We didn't go as deep as we did into the total. Ricky Piersall, San Francisco 49ers receiver is confident he's going to play, but there's no George Kittle. There's no Trent Williams. There could be real challenges for this running game. However, the Darnold News has changed some of the calculus on this. Simon we didn't really dig deep on it, but I think we can both say that we will be on the Niners in this game at plus seven and a half. It's now at seven in the contest. It's going to be at seven and a half.

A (15:20)

Yeah. I had a couple people ask right away is this not like when we were heavily back in the Seahawks against Carolina Panthers, right? That number went up to eight, you know, minus eight at one pointless yogs and they absolutely rolled that Panthers team and it's like aren't you worried you guys are stepping here with this Niners team and you know playoffs are very different. We talk all the teams play so tight. The only thing that's giving me some type of pause would just be everyone I've talked to professionally and public wise is on this Niners team. It feels like I know some groups that contrarians and they're on the Seahawks but money wise guys I respect. It's all Niners right now. So not shocked to see this one come down. I'll hit you with a stab one more time that I really love from Evan. Road teams that missed the playoffs last year that are the dog that are a dog in the divisional round 29 and 14 so 67% against the spread since 2003. So we talk all the time. It's usually a team that's a little underrated. This Niners team is not though. I think more people are comfortable betting them. You know I gave out that stat. Shahan basically has Been dominant winning these games already. 3, 0 in Divisional Round as a dog straight up, which is really impressive. But I did see this, this crazy stat basically about teams that were underdogs in a wild card round and now they're in the divisional round as an underdog. Since 2003, these teams are 3 and 22 straight up, 13 and 12 against the spread. So that goes for 49ers, Bills and Chicago. So the 3 and 22 straight up one really jumped out to me. Like maybe they cover. But it just shows how winning these games back to back as a dog is so hard. It is so hard. Which makes sense, right? Especially on the road for the Niners and the Spill and the Bills. So yeah, for me, you know, I'm not going to put too much obviously on the money line here. Maybe I'll pull that back a little bit. But on the plus seven, plus seven and a half, I'm. I'm happy to walk right into it. Like this is. We might get burned here, Chad, but long term, this would be a winner, right? Going forward in the future, we have to keep going back to that where it's like, okay, teams that didn't make the playoffs the year before, now big dogs and division around, they just cover. Like historically they've covered in this exact spot. So I know it's scary with all the injuries. We've talked about it. Just third time playing each other divisional game, you expect to be tight. I just. Everything went wrong the last time they played. Like it really did. Like that pick in. In the red zone when the Caffrey. That just does not happen with him. Right. So I, I really get into this one. At the end of the day, it's like, you know, talk all the time about not overthinking this one. Not. I'm trying to think it where it's like, guys, we're getting a great number here. Let's take it especially in contest if it's seven and a half. Chad, that's. That's gonna be a real hard choice to pass on that number.

B (18:02)

I don't know that we can. Yeah, I'll be honest. We just talked about Houston, New England, the tote the side. But just to be clear, we are on Houston, New England and the under. If you can get the 41, get it. It's also at 40 and a half below the key number. I took it at 40 and a half. This was our brass balls. I think we're going to have a hard time leaving this one out of the contest too.

A (18:25)

Yeah, I mean Live that Seahawks game we just talked about Chad's. Chad's favorite bet. The under it is now moving almost every book to 44.

B (18:34)

There we go.

A (18:35)

So again, this is. I'm gonna lose my mind all day because is this Sam Darnold movement. Are we like. I can't wait to get off this call and try to find out more and obviously if I hear anything that I can put out there, I would beforehand. But shifter will always beat me. Beat me to the punch. That's what the man does. He gets paid millions of dollars to do that. But yeah, for this game I, I haven't wavered at all. I still love the under and once again it's another win. I'm happy we got ahead of it, you know, just because the Nico Collins, it did move this by a point. So yeah, to me, if any game is stupid enough to go over with some fluky plays, this would obviously be the game. Right. We have two defenses that can be beat by deep balls. But I just, I can't see CJ having a career day here with. Without his guy Nico Collins. Especially the fact that Christian Gonzalez is back and he's back with no, no residual effects. Right. They said he is totally cleared. Didn't have any sleep issues or anything like that. So huge deal to know that Gonzalez is going to be locking down half the field here against an already banged up and weak Houston team. And you know, Houston also might have an injury to the offensive line, so can Milton Williams take advantage of that? We'll see. But Patriots as bad as their pass rush? I thought it was against the Chargers last week. I felt their coverage was excellent. So I'm really excited to see this defensive matchup between both these guys.

B (19:55)

Rams -4 at Chicago. Here's a great stat for you. 40 years ago this week, the Chicago Bears last played the Los Angeles Rams in the playoffs. I was at that game with my buddy Matt. Matt and I will be watching the game together in much warmer conditions than we did that day in Chicago watching it from Miami. Back then it was the monster of the midway, super bowl shuffle. Chicago Bears who completely dominated the Rams and they were favorites. Bears underdogs here. But it's going to be icy. It's going to be conditions. I'm getting pictures from friends of the George Howis statue outside Jordan Field just covered in snow. What are we doing here?

A (20:55)

I know what I'm doing. I'm. I'm definitely still on this Rams team and for full game I'm doing it. But obviously my bigger bets I've talked about my positions are the Rams first half. It's, it's minus two and a half now, I believe. And obviously the under for the first half. So, you know, I'm, I'm a little gun shy, obviously, with this old Bears second half. They burned me for so much money last week. But we talked about, I know lightning doesn't strike twice, but if they're down 14 and a half, you got to throw a little bit on the Bears money line once again. I mean, they just, they keep. This is who they are right at this point. You can't deny it. What is that number? Was that number eight or nine come back within when the last two minutes of a game like something seven?

B (21:38)

Well, you say lightning doesn't strike twice for the Bears. Lightning has struck seven times this year because they've come back.

A (21:45)

It is who they are. That's what I mean.

B (21:46)

They've come back with two minutes down, two minutes left in the game seven times NFL record. To your point, though, we owe people a rock in a hard Place bet of the week presented by Hard Rock Band. I want to rock. We're going a little bit off the board here. We've been talking about it all week. Our Rock and a Hard Place Bet of the week presented by Hard Rock Bat is going to be the Rams and Chicago the first half under. We liked it at 25 and a half. On Tuesday, it's a 23 and a half. We're still recommending you take the under at 23 and a half. Let's get a quick word from our sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. We'll come back on the other side with our final five. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock bet. With Miami making the national championship, you know Hard Rock Stadium will be rocking. And if you're going to the game, Hard Rock Bet is giving you a $10 bonus bet to get in on the action. If you're watching the game out in Miami, head to the Hard Rock Cafe, Miami, Duffy's, North Miami Beach, American Social, Miami and Batch Brickell. Hard Rock Bet is dropping $10 bonus bets there, too. You can turn that free $10 bonus bet into a big win by placing the same game parlay. Or even if you're just watching the game at home, there's still no better place to bet the Natty than Hard Rock Bet because it's Florida Sportsbook, so they're going crazy with promos for this one. If you haven't tried your first bet on Hard Rock Bet, there's still time for you to get $150 in bonus bets. If you win, just place a $5 bet and if it hits, you get not only your winnings but also an extra $150 in bonus bets. Even if your team may be out of the playoffs, that doesn't mean you have to sit on the sidelines between same game parlays, live betting, a can't miss welcome offer, and new promos dropping every day. Hard Rock Bet has you covered all postseason long. That's Hard Rock Bet. Download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit today. Payable in bonus bets. Not a cash offer Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida In Florida offered by Seminole Hard Rock Beta Digital, LLC and all other states must be 21 or over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play, terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1-833-Playwise in Indiana. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9 with it gambling problem, call 1-800- gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee and Virginia, everything tastes better.

C (24:25)

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B (28:04)

All right, brother, listen, I'm leaving the last one up to you. I think we're locked in on Seattle, San Francisco, under 45 and a half in the contest, San Francisco plus seven and a half, New England minus three and a half and the total in the New England Houston game, which is 40 and a half. I. I'm sort of at a loss on the other games. I know you love the Rams, so it's at four and a half in the contest. We can also get 48 and a half on the total in that game. Or do we just go off the board with Buffalo and, and Denver and take the over in that game? Even though I don't like anything in that game.

A (28:44)

Yeah. Like we Talked the. The 49ers won. We both love. I get all those stats. Right. I think it was Purdy 40 against the spread straight up in his career. He's never lost in Seattle winning those games by 10 points per game. So it's. He's obviously been dominant when he goes up there. Brock Purdy. But yeah, for that, for that Bills Denver game, you know I gave you those stats. It's really, really hard to win back to back playoff games on the road, especially when you have a banged up team. So it stinks for us. I wish I, I could dig in more and be, be heavy on Denver but the Josh Allen effect, I think both of us, it just scared us off. But I am obviously still on the Denver side. Yeah, if you want to go with the. The over in that game I could support it. But to me, if I had to give out the five I like, I would do 49ers plus seven and a half. I'll do the under with you. I'd want to do Patriots minus three and a half. I'll take the under with you in that one as well. And for the last one, if I had to stick it in, I guess I would go Rams over Denver here just because at the end of the day I won't hate myself if I lose on Stafford against Caleb where if we lose in the contest because I took Bo Nicks over Josh Allen.

B (29:55)

Terrible.

A (29:56)

Yeah, I would. I could see the fans absolutely crushing me. So that's where I'm at with that one. It's like I feel good. I feel good. Kind of hate both of them but that's how it is. We're. You're at this time of year it's hard not to have the fan in us. I think both fans of us want the Bears and the Bills to both win.

B (30:12)

Yeah.

A (30:12)

But that's the tough part here. I'm trying not to make let that filter in here. So I'm gonna leave it up to you, buddy. Would you rather do Denver or la?

B (30:21)

We're gonna go with the Rams. I hate it but it's this like I don't have any.

A (30:25)

You can't lose.

B (30:26)

I like I don't have any feeling on the Bills and the Broncos. I don't love the number. I don't want to bet against Josh Allen, but it's a bad situation. Whereas the Bears, I could see them winning and if, if I lose this game because the Bears won, I've emotionally hedged. I'm totally fine. I feel really good about other four picks.

A (30:48)

Yeah. And again, people have asked. Obviously it might feel like the sucker bet of the day, but the, the Bills, you could tease them up to seven and a half. I get it. Like, I, I've thrown them in a bunch of bets as well. Even though I'm heavy on the Denver side. It just. Is Josh Allen really going to get blown up by Bo Nicks? That feels like something that can't actually happen here. But yeah, the. You know these lines, Chad. Like, we talk all the time. They're. They're really tough here. But yeah, I, I'm happy we're going the Rams over that, that Denver pick.

B (31:16)

All right, so we got Seattle and the Rams under 45 and a half. We got the Niners plus seven and a half, the Patriots minus three and a half. The under in the Houston Patriots game 40 and a half and the Rams minus four and a half. Those are our official five picks. Those have been submitted. This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume Podcast network. We will be back on Sharper Square on Sunday night after the Bears Rams game. We'll recap a lot of misery and I'll be prepping for the Indiana Hoosiers in the national title game on Monday. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate. Review. Subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.

A (32:08)

The road to the super bowl, filled with unexpected twists and turns, detours and shattering collisions. But the final prize makes the trip worthwhile.

C (32:24)

Everything tastes better after your team wins. Wings, nachos, celery. Seriously, everything. Similarly, everything also tastes better once you've baptized it with a simple, handcrafted flavor of the original Louisiana brand hot sauce. So just imagine how truly tasty something would taste if it was doused in the original Louisiana hot sauce after your team wins. It almost sounds too tasty.

A (32:50)

Almost.

C (32:51)

So come Saturday, Sunday, or any day football's played, head down to wherever you buy things to eat and grab some of the perfectly balanced heat. The original Louisiana hot sauce. That's Louisiana hot. Buy you some. What's up? It's Cam Jordan. I'm back with season three of your favorite podcast, the off the Edge with Cam Jordan Podcast Tap in every Wednesday to hear conversations with my friends and stars from the NFL, the sports world in general, and entertainment about anything from teams and players making waves to pop culture. And I'll take you inside my journey through my 15th season in the NFL. Looking forward to you joining me this season. The season of More on the off the Edge with Cam Jordan Podcast Catch new episodes every Wednesday on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast or wherever you get your podcasts. Wasabi Hot Cloud Storage Store more and.

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Hey, if they'll kill a cop and.

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Bury him, what are they going to do to me?

A (33:51)

What really happened to the missing deputy? Valley of Shadows A new series from.

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Pushkin Industries about crime and corruption in California's high desert.

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Listen to Valley of shadows on the.

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Iheartradio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.

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Hey guys, have you heard of Goldbelly?

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It's this amazing site where they ship the most iconic famous foods from restaurants across the country, anywhere, nationwide. I've never found a more perfect gift than food Gold Belly Ship Chicago Deep.

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Dish pizza, New York bagels, Maine lobster.

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Rolls and even Ina Garden's famous cakes. So if you're looking for a gift for the food lover in your life, head to goldbelly.com and get 20% off your first order with promo code GIFT. That's goldbelly.com, promo code GIFT.

A (34:42)

This is an iHeart podcast.

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Guaranteed Human.