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This is an iHeart podcast.
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Yeah, I said it.
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C
And Doug, there's nowhere I wouldn't go to help someone customize and save on
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B
car insurance with Liberty Mutual. Even if it means sitting front row
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C
at a comedy show.
- [01:07]
A
Hey, everyone, Check out this guy and his bird.
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B
What is this, your first date?
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A
Oh, no.
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C
We help people customize and save on car insurance with Liberty Mutual. Together.
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A
We're married.
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Me to a human, him to a bird. Yeah, the bird looks out of your league.
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C
Anyways, get a quote@libertymutual.com or with your local agent.
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B
Liberty. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty.
- [01:26]
C
Imagine an Olympics where doping is not
- [01:28]
A
only legal, but encouraged.
- [01:30]
B
It's the Enhanced Games.
- [01:31]
C
Some call it grotesque, others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast Superhuman documented it all. Embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year.
- [01:42]
B
Within probably 10 days, I put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth.
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Listen to Superhuman on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [01:56]
B
Wanna be a star?
- [01:57]
C
No problem. Anyone can shine on TikTok. Post your first video today.
- [02:02]
B
Real life, real story, real you. Download TikTok and get started. Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rock bet. We are part of the Voluum Podcast network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper. Makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined, as always, by my bff, my companion, my compadre professional Better Celebrating the Broad street bullies and Sidney Crosby's first ever embellishment penalty while working the draft so hard. Simon Hunter. Edo. Simon.
- [02:45]
A
Chad. What a battle last night was. My guy Zieger showed up, the, the God himself, Porter Martone. I mean I can't get over here in Philadelphia. People have to mention this guy's name. It's been, it's been a joy. But yeah, I wish I could be at the game but like you said, working, grinding for my people haven't slept. We'll sleep tonight after the draft. But yeah, I can't wait to get into it. A lot of, A lot of, A lot of, A lot of whispering going on, Chad, behind the scenes and it's a fun time of year. You can take advantage of it if you got the right info. And I'm thinking we're off to a pretty good start on this show. A lot of our numbers we bet have moved pretty heavily. So pretty happy to dive into it.
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B
All right, well, let's get into it. Yesterday was the official draft week whisper Wednesday. We're co opting that from Kentucky Derby week. We're bringing back our buddy Derek Brown from the Fantasy Pros football podcast here in the Volume podcast network. He's been with us all draft season long. We were yucking it up so much before the show and Simon had no interest. His head was down, he was rubbing his eyes. He was, he was trying to get himself, will himself to the end of the day so he can make some money. Derek, we made it to the finish line kind of.
- [04:04]
C
Kind of man. Yeah. Lots more bets we're going to talk about. There's definitely a lot of moving and shaking. I think we're going to see a lot of fireworks on round one of the NFL draft. Could definitely be a lot of trade ups, a lot of trade outs. I think we're going to get a lot of action, boys.
- [04:18]
B
Well, look, that, that's been to me like this has been kind of a quiet draft because there's so few quarterbacks and that's always going to be what drives the narrative. And because just the betting markets, they've been slow to offer betting markets, any of the operators have because they've been getting killed on these. But in the last 48 hours there's been massive moves in terms of what teams are expecting to move and what players and where they're expecting to go, who people are interested in. And the betting markets have started to explode a little bit. So we want to get all into that quickly. Two things we gotta housekeep a little bit here. Number one, from an irate Bengals fan commenting on the Sharper Square YouTube channel. Don't forget we read the comments, we engage with everyone who's engaging with us. I kept screaming this from the commenter. Chad kept screaming about Dexter Lawrence being 29 years old. He's 28. He's 28. Until November, the Bengals have had a solid off season, but they never get credit for anything. Damned if they do, damned if they don't. Okay, fine. He'll be 28 and 10 months when the season begins. I apologize. You got me on the 60 day window or where he is not turning 29. Between when the season starts and we get into November, the Bengals are fine. And when the Bengals actually make aggressive moves to improve their team over the course of three, four, five years, not one stop fixes when they've already gotten rid of one of their best players for a guy who will be 29 and they still haven't figured out how to protect their quarterback. And he had one great year, but he's been injured every year since then. Then the Bengals start getting credit. You gotta win. You don't. You don't win in the off season. You make improvements in the offseason, you win in the regular season, that's when you start getting the credit. Can I get an amen, boys?
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C
Amen. Amen to the congregation.
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B
Simon?
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Yeah, I get, I get what he's fired up about.
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C
It's.
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This is the Bengals fans time of year, right?
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B
I just need affirmation, man.
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A
I'm just saying as a Bengals fan, this is, this is your time of year, Chad.
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B
This is when you win. That's right. The Bengals win. All right. The other day I said, you know, Simon had a comment about top 10 running backs and how many teams have drafted running backs in the top 10, I think that have gone on to win a Super bowl because we were debating about Jeremiah Love and I asked Matt Mitchell if he was actually listening to the show while producing it, if he could come up with the list of running backs taken in the top 10. And he did it. He put it in the chat and I didn't see it. So I want to follow up on that. This is the list of running backs recently taken in the top 10 of the draft since 2015. Ashton Genty, Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley, Leonard Fournette. Barkley and Fournette both won Super Bowls with teams that did not draft them. Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott and Todd Gurley. To the rams back in 2015, he did get to the Super Bowl. So three Super bowl appearances, two champions, Fournette and Barkley, zero. With the teams that drafted him. If we want to play, let's remember some guys top 10 running backs taken since 2015. This was a great list. Matt, nice job. Trent Richardson, 2012 with the Cleveland Browns C.J. spiller with the Bills in 2010. Darren McFadden, Arkansas Number 4 with the Oakland Raiders, Adrian Peterson. That was that turned out to be a good pick with the Vikings. Reggie Bush. He did win a Super Bowl. Wasn't a predominant wasn't the dominant offensive weapon, but he did win a Super Bowl. Number two to the Saints. Oh, this was a good Ronnie Brown. Number two to the Dolphins, Seti Bedman Number four Chicago Bears Cadillac Williams, Same year as Ronnie Brown, Auburn. Top five running backs from Auburn taken 10th of day. Okay, Pretty inglorious list. I gotta say, Simon, you're pretty much spot on there. Well done, well done.
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C
A lot of stank there into this
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A
over the years, Chad, and this has been a conversation with professional betters in my life for at least 12 going back 15 years. Just talking with the guys and it's like you can tell which are the bad organizations because they just keep doing the stupid things and they don't care about past history. They think they know better. They think they know what's the smart move going forward. And that's just human condition. So yeah, as someone that's done this professionally, if you want to be a good sports better, you have to know you don't have the answers and to trust the past. And you know, going back, look at the data, it's again, no one's doubting the town like the list of those guys you just read. Chad, think about how much hall of Fame talent there was there. There are going to be some picks that work out there, but think of just all of the nothing burgers, right? Guys that had talent were pretty good in the NFL, but that just, it doesn't do anything in this league. So yeah, we'll get into I've taken a position on Jeremiah Love because I, I do think there's a lot of smoke screens being thrown around with his name right now, so.
- [09:45]
B
Oh, that's interesting. Well, let's not. I have a whole tangent I want to go on about disconnected NFL owners who are billionaires and translating that success into everything else. Because I just watched the Jailblazers Doc the Untold Story on Netflix and this guy Bob Witsit who was the gm and we'll save that for another day Cause the draft is tonight and I want to get right to it. So Simon, what are the smokescreens that you believe are coming out about Jeremiah Love?
- [10:19]
A
I don't know if it's true about the whole Arizona thing, them taking them at three. Apparently that's, that's just bait. They're trying to bait teams to move up and from what I hear from Tennessee is they love Sonny Styles, which is, you know, to me the perfect linebacker for our solid guy. Like that just makes sense when you really, when you really break it down. So right now at Hard Rock, you can get over four and a half on him at plus 120. And I've seen a couple of people talk about the Giants taking them at 5. I've also seen people talk about teams trading up to the Giants at that five spot and taking him there because they, they honestly have other guys they like as well. So I, I'm, I'm kind of interested on that number right now because we talked about Chad originally. He was rejected to maybe be number 10, 11, maybe nine love. And then all of a sudden this Arizona.
- [11:09]
B
Yeah.
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News came out and that built a big story. And all of a sudden, you know, before that, like a couple days before that, people were talking about how Tennessee, they couldn't pass on, that they loved them. So I feel like we're getting a little bit of a nice priced in number here where he could, he could, a team could move up and take him at that position, but he could easily fall to 5. Like I'm telling you, it's all laid out there where Arizona, if they get stuck there and they have to make a pick they pass on. Same with Tennessee. It's just, I feel like people thought it was set in stone. That's why that number is a plus number right now, right over four and a half is plus 120 on a running back. So I, I do think there's a lot of value there and I have been betting it and yeah, I, I am shocked to see there's some, some books still out there, five and a half. So you could, you could try to middle it and him go to that five pick but I, I would just play it safe and just take the over at the plus number of four and a half.
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B
Derek Brown. What do you think of that?
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C
I, I, I agree with a lot of what Simon laid out there. I've heard that Arizona really wants to trade back. I've also heard that the Jeremiah Love stuff team to trade up ahead of Tennessee and New York. The one thing where I'll, I'm not trying to throw a wrench in the gears here. The only other thing I've, I have heard is that Tennessee is Live to try to Trade out of 4, 2. So if a team trades up to try to get ahead of the Giants for Jeremiah Love, that's the only way I think this goes south. But I like the betting angle for it. Like, Simon's absolutely on point here. So I think that Jeremiah Love could go five, and if he goes a little bit later, I wouldn't be shocked either. I think there's a lot of smokescreen about Arizona and Tennessee both trying to trade back right now, depending on who's on the board.
- [12:45]
B
Here's what I don't get. You guys are plugged in. Why the. Would anybody tell you anything? You know what I mean? Like, what is the. What is the benefit for having a conversation with someone like you guys? I say this. You know, when we launched Action Network in 2017, 2018, for the first, say, year, year and a half, I would talk to anybody. I would do any panel I could get on to try to get attention for the business. But after, like, say, 18 months, I stopped doing them because we were growing and there were other entrants in the market, and I didn't want anyone to know what we were doing. I didn't want to get on a panel, accidentally share anything tactical or strategic about what Action Network was doing when so many more people were trying to get into this space. What is the value for anyone to tell you guys anything? Simon, I understand. Like, maybe it's about sharing information and getting something, but either everyone's bullshitting or everyone is telling the truth and they're idiots.
- [13:59]
A
Well, from just from the top. What did you just do for two, three minutes there? People love to hear themselves talk, Chad, and that's just the fact. So for me, a lot of it's taken.
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B
By the way, let's. Mitchell, I want you to time how long Simon's answer is right now.
- [14:14]
C
That was a professional setup. I gotta give Simon props on that. That was well done.
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A
That's sleep.
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B
This is Simon. That is pure nastiest stuff. And no sleep right now.
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C
This is no sleep.
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A
Yeah, yeah. Flyer's rage right now. I. It's all about traded information, Chad. Honestly, it's like even these relationships aren't just built today. These are people I've been talking to for over 10 years. And it's like, certain people are just scouts when you start talking to them. Certain people you've met at different NFL settings and you've built a relationship because they want information about other teams as well. That's. That's what I'm telling you. It's a chess match where you're right. Why would they give me information? They're. They're simply saying, I like the are. We're like, we like these guys, right? If they say, we have four or five guys right now on our board, that's who we're targeting. That's. That's good information for me. Even if it's. They're not giving the exact guy they want because they don't know who's going to fall to them. And that's how it is in most drafts. So, you know, people like people that do these mock drafts for a living. They're probably getting the same information, if not better information than me, Chad. But at the same time, it's like they're throwing darts because they have no idea who's going to fall and when these players are going to be available. Because no team is saying, this is our one guy we're taking. That's what we're going to target. Unless it's like a unique situation where they're the only team that likes that guy. Right. Like, certain teams zone in on one guy, and other teams have them as a second, third round grade. So, yeah, it's. I get where you're coming from. It's. It's a fair question. It's. It's just about the trade of information. And at the end of the day, people just want to talk, right? People want to hear what other people are saying, and they want to know what's going along around the league with other different teams. So that's. That's that the basis of it?
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C
Well, and some of it comes from agents and scouts, depending on who you're talking to. And a lot of it is like, you know, not necessarily. If you're talking to anybody adjacent to a team, it might not even be something like players that are just specifically on their board or you're. You're asking them a lot of like, who do you like? And things like that. So you're. You're. You're info mining without, like, being like, okay, so who are you picking first? Because you're probably. You're never going to get an answer out of that.
- [16:18]
B
So, Derek, the other day we were talking about Mezador under 25 and a half, and you noted, you know, we were trading some DMS yesterday. Like, the market has indeed crashed since Tuesday because we move lines on the show. It's now 22 and a half. Juice to 140 minus 140 to the under. Time is of the essence. What other hot tips can you share with us right now, Derek, two bets
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C
we gave out earlier this week. Both of them have absolutely the markets crashed. Yeah. Mezador in some books is still at 25 and a half, but he's crashed of minus 330. Gave out Spencer Fano to be the first offensive lineman. If you're looking around at everybody's box now, that was plus 200 when we talked about it earlier this week. Spencer Fano to be the first offensive lineman drafted right now is minus 130. So I hope everybody listened to. I hope they got their bets. In the three that I have for everybody today is Carnell Tate, under seven and a half. You can get this at plus 105 plus money at a lot of different books. I think his conceivable floor is the Washington Commanders. I've heard if Sonny Styles is not there, that Carnell Tate is. If he's not top on their board, he is right there, like in the conversation for who they would take. The next one that I'll discuss here is one that's a little bit further down. We can throw this into like long shot bets. Houston to draft a linebacker with their first pick. And I know everybody's talking about they go dt, they go edge, they go offensive line. Hasn't Houston shown us over the last few years like they might be more comfortable with their offensive line mix than we are? And they are a prime candidate to trade back. The thing about their roster makeup right now, you look at their three starting linebackers. Henry Towa Toa is a free agent in 2027. Aziz Al Shayer, free agent in 2027. E.J. speed, a free agent in 2028. Every single linebacker on this roster right now is either a free agent in 2027 or 2028. So if they were to trade back and trade out of the first round, which they're live to do, I've heard that they're a team that wants to move back as well. They are right in the mix at the top of the second round. To be right there for a linebacker like that is the sweet spot for it. So at plus 1500. Yes. Bet this.
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B
What about the Vikings? You have some thoughts on the Vikings?
- [18:37]
C
So every single mock draft has put a safety to them throughout the entirety of this process. Harrison Smith has still not declared that he's retired. I've heard whispers he might come back this year. Now, that's not public news. It's not out there. It's still kind of a 5050 proposition. But this all goes down to they could take a defensive lineman or an edge with their first pick and it's not getting mocked out there. They have a definitive need. They have already talked about religiously this offseason about possibly even trading Jonathan Garnard, who's still on this roster, if that goes down on draft night or even day two. Yeah, Minnesota could definitely take an edge or a defensive lineman. You get this at plus 250 plus 300 a lot of books all right,
- [19:21]
B
quick word from Hard Rock and then we're coming back. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bats Florida Sports Book. It's NBA playoff time where the lights are brighter, the pressure is higher, and every possession can change a series. And on Hard Rock Bet, every night is your shot to score a major bucket with win or go home energy on the hardwood. I love building same game parlays. However you draw it up, Hard Rock Bet gives you tons of ways to stack your picks into a same game parlay built for the playoffs. If you're ever late for tip off, don't worry. Hard Rock Bet lets you live bet all game long from the first bucket to the final buzzer. Sign up today and double your winnings on your first 10 bets. Maximum $50. That's right, double your winnings on your first 10 bets. So if you would have won 100 bucks on your bet, now it's 200. The welcome offer is just the beginning. Hard Rock Bet has new promos daily, so open up the app right now to see what prompt promo you've got today. Download the Hard Rock Bet app and let's get the party started. Offered by the Seminole Tribe in Florida. Offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital, LLC and all other states must be 21 or over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida, call 1-833-playwise in Indiana, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9 with it. In Ohio, call 1-800-my reset gambling problem, call 1-800- gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Tennessee or Virginia.
- [21:07]
C
And Doug, there's nowhere I wouldn't go to help someone customize and save on
- [21:11]
B
car insurance with Liberty Mutual, even if
- [21:14]
C
it means sitting flat front row at a comedy show.
- [21:17]
A
Hey everyone, check out this guy and his bird.
- [21:19]
B
What is this, your first date?
- [21:20]
A
Oh, no.
- [21:21]
C
We help people customize and save on car insurance with Liberty Mutual together.
- [21:24]
A
We're married.
- [21:25]
B
Me to a human, him to A bird. Yeah, the bird looks out of your league.
- [21:28]
C
Anyways, get a quote@libertymutual.com or with your local agent.
- [21:32]
B
Liberty. Liberty. Liberty.
- [21:34]
A
Liberty.
- [21:35]
C
Imagine an Olympics where doping is not
- [21:38]
A
only legal, but encouraged.
- [21:39]
C
It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast Superhuman documented it all. Embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on £10.
- [21:56]
B
I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth.
- [21:59]
C
Listen to Superhuman on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [22:05]
A
A win is a win. A win is a win.
- [22:07]
C
I don't care what y' all say.
- [22:09]
A
Yep, that's me. Clifford Taylor the Fourth. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, the Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the
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C
scenes of the biggest moments in sports
- [22:38]
A
and entertainment, and the next, we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. And for more behind the scenes, follow
- [23:03]
C
Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network.
- [23:06]
B
On TikTok, do you remember when Diana
- [23:09]
A
Ross double tapped Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush
- [23:13]
B
didn't like black people?
- [23:15]
A
I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with little Kim? Well, you can find out on the
- [23:20]
B
Look Back at It podcast.
- [23:21]
C
I'm Sam J.
- [23:22]
A
And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down and try to make
- [23:28]
B
sense of how we survived it, including
- [23:29]
A
a recent an episode with Mark Lamont Hill waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack. I dare talk about crack all day,
- [23:40]
C
but yeah, yeah, but just so y' all know, I mean, at this point,
- [23:42]
A
Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line.
- [23:46]
C
We also have AIDS on the table right now.
- [23:49]
B
So thank you for finishing that sentence. Yes.
- [23:54]
C
I don't think there's a more important
- [23:55]
A
year for black people. Really? Yeah.
- [23:57]
C
For me it's one of the most
- [23:58]
A
important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [24:08]
B
We talked a lot about Ty Simpson. We are all having the same conversation. We don't understand why people would invest their futures in Ty Simpson. Arizona is now an odds on favorite to draft Ty Simpson. This is a team that has a brand new coaching staff. I don't understand why anybody would invest their career in their very short window on Ty Simpson. And yet I'm still seeing rumblings from experts saying Ty Simpson is more pro ready than Fernando Mendoza. What is the latest, Simon? And then Derek. You guys are hearing about Ty Simpson and who he might go to and where he might go. Yeah.
- [25:02]
A
If you're Arizona, I am a big believer in if you don't have a quarterback, you just keep taking them until you find one. So I think it's, it's, it's an, it's a win, win for Arizona. They take them at the back end of the first. If it's a possibility, if he's terrible, maybe he'll get you the number one pick or the number two pick and you just get the next guy next year. Just keep it moving. It just, it does, it just does not matter. Like it's so hard to find a guy. You just keep going until you do find one. But yeah, you're, you're spot on with it. Chad. The movement again, working the relationships. I knew, I knew there was teams that were like we're going to trade up to try to get them. I was just nervous because the market hadn't reflected it and it was like, like you said, am I just being fed lies and bad information? And I bet it pretty heavy. I said the last time we were on here that was probably my biggest bet. It's now minus 400. A lot of books. Hard Rock is at mine over, by the way.
- [25:54]
B
You're talking about over one and a half quarterbacks.
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A
Over one and a half quarterbacks. And that's not just because of him. You're hearing Beck now, which. Yeah, that's blowing my mind. Carson Beck. Good lord. I hope so. I hope it's Just his agent doing his job. Because I, when I've heard some sports reporters going on nationally broadcasted shows saying that I'm like, oh my God, this, this man's agent is doing, doing some work right now. But I, I like that bet. And when you see a move like that, Chad, I know it's kind of crazy, but it's not a win. But I'm basically going to count it as a win, right? So now I'm already allocating money in different positions. So like I've made other bets simply because I, I feel like that's going to be a winner now. Like, it feels like the, the books are pretty much telling us that not just the smart money, but the NFL itself is letting you know Ty Simpson is going to end up being a first round quarterback. Which it's crazy to say, but when you see a mover, a number move from minus 150 on Tuesday to minus 400, that's what it went through last night. That's, that's pretty much Tanya, it's pretty much a guarantee. So yeah, that was what we always talk about. Chad. These second round quarterbacks now get that first round bump just because these teams are so desperate. So like you talk about ownership, this feels like an ownership move on the parts of the Jets, Arizona or even, even Pittsburgh, a team that's been whispered here in the running with this kid. So a lot of teams apparently like this kid a lot.
- [27:18]
B
You know what's interesting about draft coverage, everybody goes on all these shows and this is excluding you two who are putting real money behind the opinions and the amount of couching obfuscating, you know, trying to say, I don't know if this will happen, but this is what I think could happen. Everything gets framed as maybe, maybe, maybe no one is taking a goddamn position. They are just saying all the rumors they hear. Like you just pointed out Simon from agents and everybody else. You know, the whisper campaigns that go on. What I like about the conversation we're having is you guys have legitimate. Simon, you've been talking about over one and a half quarterbacks nonstop. Derek, you have talked about receivers in the first round for a month. What are you hearing about Ty Simpson? Do you agree with Simon? Do you think that this guy's going to get bumped into the first round?
- [28:23]
C
I think at this point, yeah. And I've pushed back on Simon on previous shows just because like I'm like, man, like I was hearing a little bit of both and it was like it basically came down to his market, was a team willing to hop him, like at the top of, you know what the jets, the Browns, all these other teams is Pittsburgh and where they going to hear back from Aaron Rodgers? So all of that being part of the math of Ty Simpson, does he go in the first round? Is that a necessary, like, move for a team to even get him? Are the jets really in the market for him? So I know kudos to Simon for taking the position because, yeah, the betting markets are, are saying it. What I'm hearing it is, you know, it was a 50, 50 is now probably like a 70, 30 that Ty Simpson does go in round one, which all I could say is good luck to the Arizona Cardinals. I think that's where he goes. And if he pans out, he'll be an outlier. Congrats, Laflor. Congrats. The owner. I don't know if it's going to happen. If you're a Cardinals fan, I guess you just, you just hope and wait.
- [29:20]
B
Well, look, it does speak potentially to the Jeremiah Love smokescreens and wanting to trade out of that position and drafting Ty Simpson later with any other draft capital that you might get. It all starts to come full circle and make a little bit of sense. I'm not asking a question. I'm just talking because I want to hear myself talk.
- [29:48]
A
No, but you're talking the truth. That that's why this draft's gonna be fun. Where if this, if love does fall, even that's going to screw up everyone's mocks and everyone's betting markets. Right. And I don't know if you want to get into them. I, I, we heard from Bengals fans. I heard from a lot of Ravens fans better bitter that I mentioned Ed Reed's name by talking about Caleb Downs, which Chad knows. Have I ever mentioned Ed Reed's name ever talking about a player?
- [30:13]
B
No.
- [30:14]
A
And that's the level I have this kid at. And God bless my cell phone listening to me because it, it sent me a clip. I don't know if I was on Twitter, but it was a clip of Nick Saban, I believe, on Pat McAfee show talking about Caleb Downs. And I've always talked when k, when Nick Saban talks about a player. And again, it's, it's all individually, but he kind of leaves breadcrumbs. He doesn't speak overly glowing about them talking. Hearing him talk about Caleb's downs, it was like, oh, my God, this, like I said, people are saying this guy's a guaranteed hall of Famer. And that's the way Nick saved me talking about where it's like this kid's smarter than any DC I had and he's on the field and that's. That's what I'm talking about. Talking about Ed Reed. So Caleb downs market. That's why that's another guy. I've been up all night betting and we've moved the number. It was ten and a half. It's now down to nine and a half is over, under. I'm still hitting the under and it's at Hard Rock right now. It's minus 110. The under nine and a half. I just, I can't see a team in this top 10 pass on a Caleb Downs when it comes to it. I don't know where he's going to go. I really don't. But like Washington, the Saints, the Giants at five. It's. I just one of these teams I'm ever hard pressed to think they're going to pass on a guaranteed hall of Famer. I know the position. It's safety. It's not the most high in demand thing the league. It's run by safeties, right. You think about that run with the Ravens. They're run by safety. You think about Pittsburgh's run back in the day. It was run by a safety. You think even with Camp Chancellor and that great Seahawks team, it was ran by a safety. I think people are overrating a lot about unimportant the safety position is. And I think there are NFL execs that are going to not be able to pass on downs. And I just over nine and a half. It still feels too high to me. Chad. So that's a bet I'm also making.
- [32:06]
B
Well, look, you can also look at the Ravens of today and Kyle Hamilton and the past two seasons when their defense has struggled. And there's been a lot of questions about that. Zach. Or defense. When they moved Kyle Hamilton in the middle of 2024 and put him in a position where he could be more impactful. All of a sudden that Ravens defense went from giving up 40 points a game to giving up 15 points a game. Right? And you look at it last year when Kyle Hamilton got hurt, all of a sudden that Ravens defense was just not as good. He was always the most dominant player on the field for that defense. Derek, these safeties become more important. We've talked about this like. Yeah, we've talked about this throughout. Everything like it's it. The game plan is built around these guys.
- [32:49]
C
I see. Simon, you talked about Seattle of yesterday. What about Seattle of last year, Nikki, like, I mean he was the linchpin of like the defensive plan. They were all worried about the like the lead up to the game of was he going to play or was he not? And how pivotal he was. And. But then again, we've talked about this. Like you get the draft season, it's like, oh, these non important positions, but then we flip over the script and it's kickoff and it's week one and it's like, oh, wait, these positions like guard and safety are really freaking important. Who knew?
- [33:22]
B
Very important.
- [33:24]
A
Yeah. And Matt Mitchell's asking is the downs injury thing a smokescreen once again, I think that's people trying to use leverage to get better value on them. Right. If you're the Cowboys, I would be telling everybody and their mother this kid has got injury questions. So like the figure the Cowboys to be able to get him potentially at 12, that would be franchise altering. So it's. That's. We talked about this, the ugly dirty part of the game here come draft days, there's just a lot of weird rumors and people trying to get value on different things. And like we said, there's teams that are totally out like this love, this whole love thing really is going to be interesting me because there's teams that say they like love them, they're going to take them like Arizona and I, I just, everything I hear that's a total smokescreen. So yeah, the down, the Caleb downs thing I think is just. That's part of it. Right.
- [34:13]
C
Okay, sorry, go ahead.
- [34:14]
B
You know. No, you go.
- [34:16]
C
So two things on downs. One, I heard the knee was a concern, but the more teams got into his medicals, a lot of teams are not that concerned. Concern now. Two, I've heard the Giants really love him, but it's a push and pull right now of what they want to do at 10 especially because if Sonny Styles is on the board, if Tennessee doesn't take him, I've heard the Giants are divided in the room right now. It's like basically the top three of their board is Love, Styles and downs. And so if love is off the board and Styles and downs there, they know that the commanders behind them, if Styles is on the board, the commanders are taking him. If he's gone, then maybe they pivot, they go to Carnell Tate and stuff. So I'm currently working on my final mock and I'm kind of playing this cat and mouse game of if you're the Giants, if you know the team behind you, love Sonny Styles and he's not going to make it past that. Back to you at 10. So it's kind of like, okay, well if we take styles here, maybe Downs falls to us at 10 where a lot of people are just automatically pegging like, okay, it's going to be Jordan Tyson there. So I think there's a lot of volatility of what the Giants are going to do depending on what the teams around them are going to do too.
- [35:21]
B
I boys, I want to. I want to summarize here because the draft is hours away. I want to give people a chance to hear all this and process it and take advantage while numbers are still relatively fresh. Jeremiah, from today, what I'm hearing is Jeremiah Love over four and a half you can get plus money on that. Feels like we're talking about Caleb Downs. If you can get under 10, fantastic. Also staying in the Buckeye roster, CARNELL Tate under seven and a half, you can still get it at plus 105. Those feel like the biggest values. And Derek, you mentioned sort of Texans first draft position taken, a big long shot plus 1300 at Hard Rock bet. Am I missing anything? Anything at all? Nope.
- [36:13]
C
Those all sound great. I mean that's. Those are the best values pretty much on the board right now because a lot of other things we've given out previous on the show. Yeah, Fano or Mezador or Casey because I've seen or other players, wide receivers, offensive linemen, they've all been bet. They're all steamed. Or.
- [36:29]
B
Or quarterbacks taken in the first round or wide receivers taken in the first round. All of it.
- [36:33]
C
All of it.
- [36:34]
B
It's. The value has been washed away. All right, Derek Brown, you've been a champion on this show. You have brought so much good intel and thoughtful strategic information about betting the draft. Simon, can I get an amen?
- [36:51]
A
Amen.
- [36:53]
B
Derek Brown, Fantasy Bros. Football Podcast and of course my BFF Simon Hunter. Derek's going to come back one more time next week. He's going to help us recap the draft with us, but definitely check out his mock. Got to be listening to the Fantasy Pros Football podcast. Anyways, this has been Sharper Square part of the Volume Podcast Network. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe, Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you. With the 42nd pick in the 2010 NFL Drafts, the new England Patriots select Rob Gronkowski, tight end, Arizona.
- [37:49]
A
This is an I heart podcast.
- [37:51]
B
Guaranteed human.