Sharp or Square: FINAL NFL Week 10 Bets

Podcast: Sharp or Square
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Episode Date: November 9, 2025
Theme: Finalizing sharp (expert-backed) and square (public-driven) NFL Week 10 bets, with deep dives into matchups, line movements, and “contest” strategies.

Episode Overview

Chad Millman and professional bettor Simon Hunter deliver their final picks for NFL Week 10, strategizing as if entering a high-stakes betting contest. The duo examine line moves, injury impact, “sharp” vs. “square” sides, and debate whether to follow public sentiment or take a contrarian stance. The episode is fast-moving, candid, and packed with behind-the-scenes gambling wisdom.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Opening Banter: College Football Joy and Betting Mindset

• Timestamps: 03:42–06:37
• Chad’s Indiana football excitement leads to relatable tales of fandom and Gus Johnson’s legendary game calls.
• Sets the tone for how betting invokes emotion and gut-checks, not just stats.
  Quote:

“I watched the clips of Gus Johnson again and again...He literally lost his breath. It was so wonderful. As an Indiana football fan, you didn’t need to tell me it was a trap game.” — Chad Millman [05:34]

2. Minnesota Vikings @ Baltimore Ravens

• Pick: Baltimore -3.5
• Timestamps: 06:38–08:41
• Analysis: Both hosts love the Ravens now that the line is back to -3.5, despite “wise guys” backing Minnesota.
• Key Factors:
  • Ravens’ defensive strength, especially against the blitz.
  • The number’s movement suggests value after drifting as high as -4.5.
  • Concern over public’s heavy support (“biggest public bet of the week”).
• Quotes:

“Both love the Ravens. Can’t believe it’s come back down...Maybe we’re missing something here, right? But at -3.5 it’s just too good to pass.” — Simon Hunter [07:09]
“Lamar against the blitz has been brilliant the past couple years. Best in football.” — Chad Millman [07:59]

3. New England Patriots @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Pick: Tampa Bay -2.5
• Timestamps: 08:41–10:18
• Analysis: Despite professionals loving the Patriots’ side, Chad and Simon feel the more veteran Bucs will dominate, banking on a healthier Baker Mayfield and Tampa’s strong defense.
• Injuries: Patriots missing key offensive players (Stevenson, Boutte).
• Wise-guy pushback: Pros “love the Patriots, view these teams as equals,” but hosts think that's overrating NE.
• Quote:

“Pros are obviously on the other side...They love the Patriots, all of them catching points here...But this Bucs team, the veterans they are — they can make this a one-sided game.” — Simon Hunter [09:03]

4. Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks

• Pick: Cardinals +6.5 (recommend grabbing +7 or +7.5 if available)
• Timestamps: 10:18–12:24
• Analysis: Hosts back Arizona as the “brass balls bet,” noting division game tendencies to stay close.
• Matchup Insight: Arizona can exploit Seattle’s weak secondary with Jacoby Brissett at QB.
• Risks: Cardinals’ own secondary is banged up; Seattle’s public perception is unusually high.
• Quote:

“We think in this division, all these games will be close...We’re banking on it here. We’re taking the dog.” — Simon Hunter [11:08]

5. Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers

• Pick: Cautious on 49ers (+6); discuss risk of taking them in contest at +3.5
• Timestamps: 12:24–16:28, 27:43–30:51
• Analysis:
  • Line has moved dramatically toward the Rams.
  • Brock Purdy injury, Mac Jones starting for SF, creates uncertainty.
  • Hosts question whether to stick with San Francisco in their contest, since their available line (+3.5) is much worse than market (+6).
• Extended debate about the wisdom of taking “bad lines” in contests, eventual pivot to another team.
• Quotes:

“It’s gone from three and a half to four to five and a half to six. Where we’re betting on...the line going away from where we’d like it — that scares me.” — Chad Millman [13:33]
“Is it really smart of us to put them in at 3.5? … I’m trying to ward us off.” — Simon Hunter [30:09]

6. Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins

• Pick: Miami +9.5
• Timestamps: 16:28–18:44
• Analysis:
  • Painful to bet Miami, given recent struggles, unknowns, and injuries.
  • Defensive woes and roster turnover cited, but hosts point to the number being simply too big.
  • Past data shows Josh Allen failing to cover big spreads in letdown spots.
• Quotes:

“It’s a long-term winner — we know the data backs it up...But could we easily get rolled here by 40 points, Chad? Yes. That’s life betting these ugly, gross dogs.” — Simon Hunter [17:05]

7. New York Giants @ Chicago Bears

• Pick: Discussed, not final pick
• Timestamps: 18:44–20:53
• Analysis:
  • Weather will be cold/windy; both teams likely to focus on run game.
  • Bears’ rush offense vs. Giants’ terrible rush defense is a mismatch.
  • Discussion of Caleb Williams’ weapons and coaching for Bears.
  • Chad likes Giants with the points but Simon leans Bears (public side).
• Quote:

“If this was no bad weather, I would be on the Giants...but I just can’t get there.” — Simon Hunter [20:53]

8. Eagles @ Packers – Last Minute Switch

• Pick: Philadelphia +2.5
• Timestamps: 27:43–31:42
• Context: The contest line for 49ers was unattractive compared to the live line; a better value was on the Eagles in their contest (+2.5).
• Analysis:
  • Injuries for Packers, Eagles get A.J. Brown and other stars back — line is moving in Philly’s favor.
  • Both feel “dug in” on the 49ers but make a last-minute decision to pivot to Eagles for value.
• Quotes:

“We could be taking the Philly Eagles here at a good number and that number is moving to one, one and a half, or minus a half now.” — Simon Hunter [28:27] “We’re doing the Eagles because we’re getting a much better number in the contest.” — Chad Millman [30:56]

Final "Contest Five" Picks

1. Baltimore Ravens -3.5
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5
3. Arizona Cardinals +6.5 (take +7 or +7.5 if available)
4. Miami Dolphins +9.5
5. Philadelphia Eagles +2.5 (Monday Night Football)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On betting in public spots:

“Even after last week, I swore we wouldn’t be on super public sides again, at least we don’t have the Lions.” — Simon Hunter [27:43]

• On betting the ugly dogs:

“That’s life betting these ugly, gross dogs. I’ve come to terms with it.” — Simon Hunter [17:41]

• On the agonies of contest decisions:

“2 minutes ago I did not see us putting the Eagles in...I might have to torture myself and wait for Monday Night Football.” — Chad Millman [30:56]

Key Insights & Strategic Takeaways

• Line Shopping is Everything: Don’t bet “bad lines” just because of original leans — the difference between contest lines and market lines could decide your week.
• Public vs. Sharp: Sometimes being on the public side is unavoidable, but recognize where the sharp money is and make informed decisions.
• Injuries Matter — But So Does Timing: Late-breaking injury information can swing lines and betting value; always reevaluate before locking picks.
• Stick to Your Process — But Be Ready to Pivot: Both hosts were willing to switch off a “dug in” pick when contest rules/line value dictated.

Recommended Listening Segments

• Baltimore/Minnesota discussion: 06:38–08:41
• Bucs/Patriots “wise guy” breakdown: 08:41–10:18
• Cardinals/Seahawks dog strategy: 10:18–12:24
• Rams/49ers contest debate: 27:43–30:51
• Eagles late switch discussion: 28:24–31:42

Conclusion

In a classic Sharper Square episode, Chad and Simon show the realities of high-stakes NFL betting: bold opinions, late-week pivots, pain of fading your gut, and the ruthless clarity that line value — not just instinct — should rule the day. Their final picks blend sharp dog logic with an occasional nod to public logic, always aware of the contest environment.

For more: Find Sharper Square on YouTube or your favorite podcast app for their Sunday night recaps and updates.