Sharp or Square – FINAL NFL Week 11 Bets: Seahawks-Rams, Bucs-Bills, Lions-Eagles, Ravens-Browns, Cowboys-Raiders and More

Podcast by iHeartPodcasts and The Volume
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Date: November 16, 2025

Episode Overview

The week 11 episode features betting expert Chad Millman and professional sports gambler Simon Hunter locking in their final five NFL picks for the week. The discussion revolves around line movement, sharp versus square bets, injury impact, and the psychology behind each play. Both hosts lay out where they've landed after a week of monitoring news, wiseguy action, public opinion, and up-to-the-minute odds. The tone is lively, frank, and focused on giving actionable insights to fellow NFL bettors.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

[04:34 – 05:37; 28:41 – 30:01]

• Hosts Agree: Both like Cincinnati at +5.5, noting the line opened at 5, is 5.5 most places, and hasn't moved despite money on Cincy.
• Reasoning:
  • They see the line as odd—“I just, I never understood this number all week.” (Simon, 05:01)
  • Betting against the Steelers’ defense, which hasn't shown stopping ability (“I do not trust this defense”—Simon, 05:01)
  • Bengals' weapons (T. Higgins, Jamar Chase) should exploit the struggling Steelers DBs.
• Game Conditions: Possible high winds may increase game randomness, which could help the Bengals cover.
• Final Five: In the contest at +5.5.

2. Houston Texans (-5.5) at Tennessee Titans

[06:44 – 07:35; 30:01 – 30:41]

• Hosts Betting Houston: Despite line moving against them from -7.5 to -5.5, they’re taking Houston.
• Hesitations:
  • Surprised the line dropped; heavy money on Houston but market not budging (“The books are kind of telling us they think Tennessee has a way bigger chance”—Simon, 06:44).
• Analysis:
  • Texans’ defense is elite; Titans offense described as “a bad offense. It cannot move the ball.” (Chad, 07:35)
  • Preference for Houston at -5.5, but not included in their final five due to contest line being -7.5.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills

[09:30 – 10:44]

• Book Movement: Line moved from 5.5 to 6 (possibly to 6.5), reflecting sharp action on Bills.
• Hosts’ Position:
  • Both hesitant; Simon has a small position on Bucs but not confident due to Baker Mayfield’s injury concerns and shifting lines.
  • Chad waiting on a better price or more info: “If there’s something holding me back, there’s no reason for me to pull the trigger.” (Chad, 10:44)
• Contest Decision: Avoided for final five.

4. Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-3)

[10:44 – 13:01; 28:23 – 28:41]

• Hosts’ “Brass Balls Bet of the Week”
• Strong Support for Rams:
  • Both favor LAR at -3—love the matchup, especially at -2.5 or -3.
  • Concerns about public/media overhyping Matthew Stafford but trust the game script and numbers.
  • “We love this matchup for them. This is a great matchup with us offense. Defensively. It's gonna be interesting...” (Simon, 11:46)
• Monitoring Line Moves: Line touched 3.5 at some books but immediately bought back to 3, suggesting sharp resistance at 3.5.
• Final Five: Rams -2.5 in the contest, also confident at -3.

5. Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (+8)

[13:01 – 16:16]

• Chad’s “Choice” Pick at +8.5; Line Now +8
• Backing Browns:
  • Home/away defensive splits favor Browns heavily at home.
  • “It’s an undervalued home dog going against an overrated team on the road.” (Simon, 14:07)
  • Browns give up 30% fewer rush yards and 10% fewer passing yards at home.
  • Concern over RB health, but trust their defense to keep it close.
• Stat Trends: Previous strong home dog performances over 7 points, though late-season sample may not match.
• Final Five: Browns +8.5 in the contest (still like at +7.5).

6. Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)

[16:16 – 20:10; 28:41 – 29:04]

• Hosts Back Eagles:
  • Lions a “public dog” with lots of love from casuals.
  • Eagles’ defense should feast on a depleted Lions O-line; their passing attack can exploit Lions’ undermanned secondary.
  • “If Hurts can’t get it right here with the oc, this is…gonna start becoming a problem because it’s November…” (Simon, 17:59)
  • Chad: “I don’t think the Eagles are dysfunctional. I think this is exactly functional for the Eagles.” (Chad, 20:10)
• Contest Line: Eagles -1.5—hosts note this and are happy with any price under a field goal.

7. Dallas Cowboys at Las Vegas Raiders (+3.5)

[20:10 – 22:34]

• Simon's “Simon Says” Pick (at 3.5, moved down to 3):
  • Simon likes the matchup for Raiders, but Chad is less convinced.
  • Raiders’ offensive style should challenge Steve Wilks’ Cowboys defense.
  • “If you’re buying the Raiders, there’s so many 3.5’s. Don’t just take the +3.” (Simon, 21:36)
• Final Five: Ultimately not included.

8. Carolina Panthers (+3.5) at Atlanta Falcons

[31:55 – 33:44]

• Late Inclusion in Final Five:
  • Simon added Panthers instead of the Raiders after discussion.
  • “I like the Panthers more than I like the Raiders.” (Chad, 32:30)
  • Both acknowledge line movement against them and concerns about Bryce Young, but see it as a value play against a Falcons team they don’t trust.

Final Five Contest Picks

[33:44 – 34:49]

1. Cincinnati Bengals +5.5
2. Los Angeles Rams -2.5 (would play at 3)
3. Cleveland Browns +8.5 (like at 7.5+)
4. Philadelphia Eagles -1.5 (would play up to 2.5)
5. Carolina Panthers +3.5

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Bengals-Steelers Line:
  “I never understood this number… the books aren’t giving us extra free points but it feels like in this game they are.” – Simon Hunter, 05:01

• About Public Love for Lions:
  “I just don’t think [Detroit] are a top two, top three team in the NFC, which is what people are acting like right now.” – Simon Hunter, 18:34

• Home Dog Philosophy:
  “It’s an undervalued home dog going against an overrated team on the road… usually these spots really work out for us.” – Simon Hunter, 14:07

• Eagles Functionality:
  “I don’t think the Eagles are dysfunctional. I think this is exactly functional for the Eagles. This is just how they operate.” – Chad Millman, 20:10

• On Last-Minute Panthers Pick:
  “With the way we’re set up right now, if we did Carolina, we would have two 1pm games. Both would be road dogs, which I love…” – Simon Hunter, 33:13

Important Timestamps

• 03:43 – Real content begins, Chad welcomes Simon and lays out episode approach
• 04:34 – 05:37 – Bengals vs Steelers first deep dive
• 06:44 – 07:35 – Texans vs Titans, line analysis
• 09:30 – 10:44 – Bucs vs Bills, injury and market update
• 10:44 – 13:01 – Seahawks vs Rams, hosts “brass balls bet”
• 13:01 – 16:16 – Browns vs Ravens, home/road splits and line value
• 16:16 – 20:10 – Lions vs Eagles, public vs sharp discussion
• 20:10 – 22:34 – Cowboys vs Raiders, contest concerns
• 28:23 – 28:41 – Reiterating consensus picks
• 33:44 – 34:49 – Final five locked in

Final Thoughts

Chad and Simon maintain their classic rapport, debating, second-guessing, and double-checking news and line movement up to the last minute. Their transparency about uncertainty, conflicting reports, and the need to adapt is both educational and relatable for NFL bettors.

Key Takeaways

• Consensus leans toward sharp home favorites and undervalued home/road dogs.
• Heavy importance placed on contest line discrepancies.
• Constant re-evaluation is crucial—injuries, weather, and late public moves always matter.

For full contest analysis, post-pick reactions, and more betting content, catch the next Sharper Square YouTube episode or download via your favorite podcast platforms!