Chad Millman (3:43)

Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock Bat. We are part of the Volume Podcast network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined as always by my co host, my companion, my BFF Professor Professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello Simon, Chad, how we doing? We got a glorious morning in which we get to watch football all freaking day. This is the stripped down in the room eavesdropping version of Sharper Square. We're gonna make some picks. We're gonna nail down the final five that we love based on the latest news and information and how lines have been moving. Some quirkiness happening out there. Are you ready, brother?

Simon Hunter (4:33)

I am ready.

Chad Millman (4:34)

All right, first game up, Cincinnati at Pittsburgh five at Hard Rock. Bet five and a half everywhere else. I bet into it at five and a half. I'm a little surprised it hasn't moved to five everywhere else because it looks like the money is coming in on Cincinnati. I still really like it at five and a half. Are you with me?

Simon Hunter (5:01)

I'm with you. I'm a little weary of it but I'm going to join you. I just, I never understood this number all week. Like I always said, the, the books aren't giving us extra free points but feels like in this game they are. So yeah, it's, it's really a bet on Joe Flacco in this offense and just how they match up and we're both in the same boat. We just, we do not Trust his defense. We're worried they're going to burn us here, but the hope is Flacco will always have us in the opportunity to get this back door. So once again, this number. I don't know what the books are doing here, but they, they really believe in this Pittsburgh side and I just can't get over the fact how overrated this Pittsburgh defense is.

Chad Millman (5:37)

Yeah, I mean we just have not seen any evidence from either defense this year that they can stop anybody. And this isn't even about Aaron Rodgers against the Chargers last week because those are always going to happen and then there will be bounce back games and if you're ever going to get healthy and look right again, it's against the Cincinnati Bengals defense. To me, I am 100% betting against the Steelers defense and betting on T. Higgins, Jamar Chase being able to find ways to get downfield against a really, really, really bad Steelers defensive backfield right now. Cincinnati Bengals plus five and a half if you can find it, which you should be able to. We're on the Bengals. Houston at Tennessee. We had said early in the week get Houston. Right now the line is five and a half. We had said get Houston. Once it gets under seven, I got a bad number. I bet Houston minus six and a half. Even though I knew Davis Mills was going to be playing, I'm a little surprised it went further from six and a half to five and a half. Does this give you pause with the Texans?

Simon Hunter (6:44)

I mean the biggest part gives me pause. I'm sure it gives you pause as well. It's been never ending amount of money right now coming in on this Houston side and the number has dropped like Chad just said, from seven and a half. It's open to now five and a half which we always say is such a key number. So the books are kind of telling us they think Tennessee has a way bigger chance of winning this game than I gave them any type of credit for. I just, I still don't get how they're going to move and score against this defense and how they're going to stop Woody Marks and the run game of Houston. So I always say there's certain games I'm just missing and I'm over reading. There's things I'm not looking at right. And this must be one of those games. But I'm with you. Like I, I'm betting Houston taking a position on Houston. Just a little nervous that there's something here I'm missing because clearly the books and professionals have taken a stand on this Tennessee team here.

Chad Millman (7:35)

Yeah, I don't get it either. What, what about this offense all of a sudden makes them think they're going to be able to move the ball down the field? I just keep thinking about that Chargers game two weeks ago when they, they covered the game. But that's because they got a pick six in the first quarter and then a punt return in the first quarter and the Chargers had every chance to still cover that minus nine and a half and they gave up, you know, the, the backdoor field goal at the end. This is a bad offense. It cannot move the ball and it's going against probably the most elite defense right now, the most complete defense in the NFL with Pastor Tane out for the Broncos. So it's really, really hard. I know it's Davis Mills, but even Davis Mills against this defense has a better chance to me than Cam Ward against the Texans defense. So yeah, we're still on the the Houston Texans and I guess we like it even more now at five and a half. This one's tricky. Simon Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who we have been trying to figure out all week. Why aren't we going all in on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? And then in the past 24 hours this line has moved from five and a half to six and that makes me glad that like I haven't bet the Buccaneers. You noted on the show on Thursday Baker Mayfield not really running the ball as much the past few weeks and that is to the detriment of that offense and his playmaking ability. I noted that without Bucky Irving they have just been a different team and it impacts Baker's ability to use play action. Why do we think this line is moving from five and a half to six in the past 24 hours? Is this public? Is this the wise guys? What's your take?

Simon Hunter (9:30)

I think the public and the wise guys have been betting Buffalo for the most part. And you know this is really about the number, right at five and a half. That's definitely a Bill's number. And you've seen the resistance of the 6. Like we did our show, I believe it was Thursday show where the number had hit six. The Vander showed a couple books and then literally by the time we posted it all them were back to five and a half. So there has been resistance all week to the six. But like you said, you woke up today and a ton of books are showing six something even six and a half. So I don't know. Guess the pros are finally coming on the Bills. And like I told you, there's I feel like we have a lot of missing information right now on Baker and the Bucks and what kind of injury he he abstained in. I don't know what to do with this one, Chad. It's another game where I was like you, very confident Sunday on the Bucks and every show we've done, it's gotten less. I ended up not taking a position. I did take a position on them, but not as big as I thought when I really started diving into Baker stuff. And I haven't bet a dollar more on this game. I honestly thought today I'd flip and maybe get to the Bills and I'm still not there. I still just want to bet on Baker, especially Now that's at 6. So maybe not a game we'll play in the contest. But personally I. I will be on the books.

Chad Millman (10:44)

I have not bet a dollar on this game like I want to be on the Bucks. Maybe I'll just wait. You know, I'll wait and see if it gets to six and a half. But like, with the way the money is moving, it may get there. But I've been, I've been hesitating all week and I feel like if there's something holding me back, there's no reason for me to pull the trigger because I get antsy on Sunday. Seattle at the Los Angeles Rams. The Los Angeles Rams are three point favorites. This was our brass balls bet of the week, presented by Hard Rock Bet. We're both on the ramps here. Here's what's making me nervous. And it's got nothing to do with anything we talked about on the field. It's only because Matthew Stafford is just getting glazed this week. Like every single day. There's something new about how Matthew Stafford is playing at an MVP level, how he's getting all the accolades and attention that he should have been getting for years. So much media love. I feel like we've been jinxed.

Simon Hunter (11:46)

It could be. It's our biggest public play of the week, but I think you gotta stick to what we love. We love this matchup for them. This is a great matchup with us offense. Defensively. It's gonna be interesting how Sam Darnold reacts to a really tough defensive front and, you know, a defense that can be passed on. If Sam Darnold has the games he's been having. Yeah, Chad, we might get burned here, but one, we're getting a great number, still getting the three at Hard Rock, and a lot of books have moved to three and a half and us personally for our contest it's two and a half, so I don't know how we can avoid it. It's great numbers. We love the matchup. And the only negative thing I can think of is just feels like it's very public. Like the public is all over the ramps, but so are the pros. But I. I really thought the Seattle Seahawks would be the public darling of the week. But it looks like it's going to be Detroit taking that dog that the public really loves. So it's. It's interesting watching the line movement. Like we talked Thursday show, it was three at Hard Rock. Three and a half got touched at a bunch of books, including Hard Rock, and they immediately got bet down. So we talk all the time. There's some really sharp groups that use Hard Rock. They clearly are taking a stand at Seahawks at three and a half. They feel like that's too much. We love them at three. Even better, we get a two and a half in our contest. So I just. I don't know how we avoid this one. I really love this number.

Chad Millman (13:01)

All right, Los Angeles Rams, we're on him at three. Baltimore at Cleveland. This was Chad's choice at eight and a half. It's at eight at Hard Rock. Still a lot of seven and a halfs out there, which is surprising to me. I thought by now we'd start seeing a lot more money coming in on the Ravens and pushing this number back up to eight and a half. I. I've loved it all week. Haven't found a reason not to love it. It's the right spot. We've talked about the Browns at home. Just a reminder since the beginning of last season where there's been a tremendous split for the Browns at home and the Browns away. 20 points at home, 20 points per game at home, 30 points per game on the road. They give him about 30% fewer rushing yards at home than they do on the road, about 10% fewer passing yards at home than they do on the road. It's just a different defense at home. And this is a big number. So, you know, I'm still for better, for worse, I'm still all in on the Cleveland Browns.

Simon Hunter (14:07)

Yeah. And Cleveland, though, there's a lot of dogs this week that Cleveland feels like it's the same one where we see, just like you people, we see a thousand different ways, mean, check and easy get burned on this bet. And of course, that's life. And you're betting really bad quarterbacks with bad teams. But like we say all the time, we're just trying to Play the number situationally doesn't feel like it's a great spot for the Ravens. On the flip side for the Browns, they've been on an absolute role of being just terrible on the road. Now they're finally back home in a great match for them. So it's. It's really about the number. If this was down to six and a half seven, maybe we could talk ourselves out of this. But like Chad said, it's up to eight now. Hard Rock, you know, we're suckers for anything over seven and a half, especially with the hook. I wish I could still use this stat which we had been using all year, which is basically home dogs greater than seven points through the first nine weeks. It's like 80 clip they. They hit at. But unfortunately, Chad, it is week 11. That stat no longer matters, so can't use it. But the. The thought process doesn't change here. Right? It's an undervalued home dog going against an overrated team on the road. Usually these spots really work out for us. Right? The. The biggest worry here is who is healthy for Cleveland in that running backfield. Who's gonna be carrying the ball here because we're not going to win this on the quarterback's arm. We're going to need a really staunch run game against a Ravens defense as suspect against the run. So love this match for them. Lamar. I said I was never going to trust their coach. I was going to wait to see what the B writer said about him. Apparently he was fully go in practice. It was just a rest day giving him some days off because he took so many hits, I guess, in that Vikings game. So nothing to worry about if you're. If you are back in the Ravens and worried about Lamar. But on the flip side for us, I still think he's not moving quite like he was before the injury. Like even going back watching that Vikings game, he never feel like he fully went full speed because he just does not trust that hamstring. So in this type of match against Miles Garrett and that defensive front, I just. I love it for us in so many different ways. So, yeah, It's. There's an 8 out there, like Chad said, a hard rock. I. I don't want to be scared off. You go get the seven and a half. I don't see this landing on eight. I think seven and a half is plenty of points in this matchup.

Chad Millman (16:16)

All right, we're in on the Cleveland Browns. I love when we get funky like that. Detroit at Philadelphia. Philadelphia is a two and A half point favorite. This Simon is our rocking a hard place Bet of the Week presented by Hard Rock Bet I wanna rock. Look, you just talked about Detroit is becoming the public dog for the week. It's probably what's been tamping down this number and keeping it at two and a half at Hard Rock. It's starting to move to three in some other places that tells me that the professionals are finally coming in full force on Philadelphia here. Lots of reasons to like the Eagles. Lots of reasons to like the Lions. I'm going to go with what we've been talking about all week. I know people are saying there's stories every day that there are problems with this Eagles offense. To me they are different than the problems last year. The problems last year seemed like Jalen Hurts was lacking confidence. Jalen Hurts does not seem to be lacking confidence this year. Jalen Hurts seems to be playing a very conservative type of football where he is doing what he needs to do to get his team in a position to win. That puts them in a position to win a close game against a very good team by a field goal. The flip side, the Lions have so many injuries again on defense that it's going to be hard for them to execute as they normally would against still a very, very good Eagles offense. So we're on the Eagles. Yeah.

Simon Hunter (17:59)

And this should be a get right spot for this Eagles offense. Chad just talked about their whole secondary feels like it's out for Detroit and now you have backups and one on ones against AJ Guy I view as a top five receiver and Devonte Smith a guy I view as a top 10, top 15 receiver. So if hers can't get it right here with the oc, this is, this is going to. Eventually I'm gonna said it's gonna start becoming a problem because it's, it's November at this point. Like it doesn't matter in September. October, you're working through stuff. It's getting a little late here and I know I gave him the dry air excuse last week in the cold.

Chad Millman (18:33)

Yeah, that was crazy.

Simon Hunter (18:34)

It's true though. Again, it's. If you played sports, you know, it's hard to grip a ball in dry, cold air like that. And I feel the same here where it's like it's nice weather here in Jersey. It's going to be football weather. I don't know. It's not going to be in the 20s or in the teens like it was in Green Bay. So I don't know if Hurts going to have that excuse and the flip side, the lines offensively, I just think that offensive line, I still have so many questions about them and the injuries they've had this season. This is going to be a real test for them against this Eagles defensive front that was just flying last week. Is that going to carry throughout the season? Look, we've seen with Fang's defense, once they get rolling, once the guys are comfortable in the defense like last year, they become unstoppable. And that's why he's such an important piece, that Eagles team, that being a defensive coordinator. So love this matchup. Like we talked the pros, the ones that I talked to there on the lines, this is to them a Lion spot, right? All the trends, all the numbers point to it. Eagle is super dysfunctional right now. While on the flip side it feels like the lines are rolling. But I still think people are viewing this Lions team as if it is a Ben Johnson run team offensively and that their defense does have healthy guys right now. I just. They just don't feel like the same team that people are building up to be right now. Detroit. So again, no district with Detroit. I just don't think they're a top two, top three team, nfc, which this is what people are acting like they are right now. They can't believe they're a two and a half point dog against this Eagles team. So it's not shocking to see the public love for them so much. But like Chad said, I am shocked this number hasn't had three. Maybe it will by kickoff, but I just think there's so much public love for the Lions even when people hear this, I believe you'll still be able to get to two and a half.

Chad Millman (20:10)

By the way, I don't think the Eagles are dysfunctional. I think this is exactly functional for the Eagles. This is just how they operate. Dallas at Las Vegas. This is a Monday night game. It was three and a half. This was Simon says. It's moved down to three. I think you were a little nervous about it on Thursday. You're probably feeling better about it today. But the question is, when we get to the other side of the break, will this be one of our final five?

Simon Hunter (20:41)

If you have something you like better, you can throw it in. I mean, I'm with you. It's not great having two Mondays in a row in our contest. It's. It's always weird going to sleep and waking up and having another sweat for the show on the Monday. But just about the number. I love the number here. Happy to see it. Came down because I couldn't understand again, why the public are betting the Cowboys. I did not know why professionals were acting like two guys coming off injured reserves and joining the Cowboys. Defense was going to save this team in such a big upgrade. So I was just worried there was something I was missing. And luckily, like Chad said, the number has come down. Don't buy it here, though. If you're buying the Raiders, there's so many three and a half. Don't. Don't just take the plus three. Get. Get the hook. Get. We need the hook with Geno Smith. So chop around five to three and a half. But yeah, this. There's a couple games this week that could have gone either way. Luckily, I didn't give out the wrong one. Right. The Broncos, they're up to four and a half now. Like, that was the game I was wavering on.

Chad Millman (21:36)

J.K. dobbins on IR. There's some other issues going on there, so it's been moving.

Simon Hunter (21:41)

Yeah. And just again, I, I feel like I dodged a bullet there going the Raiders over that because it's like, man, if you're sitting here right now and the Raiders were plus four and a half, I would have felt like an idiot giving them out on Tuesday. So luckily we've. We've given out the best of the number. Hopefully people got it and matchup wise, we know Dallas is going to get theirs. I just, I think Chip Kelly, this Raiders offense, this is the exact spot you bounce back after extended rest of that Denver team against a putrid Dallas team that just cannot stop the run, can't stop, passes up the seam, and that's literally all the Raiders want to do. Like, I'm not here to shit on Chip Kelly, but you watch his offense. There's not much imagination to it. He really does what Gino's strength is, which is just pushing the ball downfield up the middle of the field. So I, I still love the matchup for them. The biggest issue is I know you just do not like this Raiders team. You have not been betting this Raiders team, so I'll try to convince you on the other side. But I get why you're hesitant about betting it.

Chad Millman (22:34)

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Colin Coward (24:38)

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Simon Hunter (27:55)

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Simon Hunter (28:21)

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Chad Millman (28:23)

All right, buddy, let's talk about what we do like and what we agree on. We do like the Rams. We're going to play them, I think in the contest is two and a half. We've both been betting them at two and a half and three. We clearly like Cleveland as an underdog. Seven and a half.

Simon Hunter (28:41)

Eight.

Chad Millman (28:41)

Eight and a half. That is in. We like the Eagles minus two and a half. We're going to play that one. So we got three games that we know we like. We got one dog, two short favorites at home. Cincinnati plus five and a half.

Simon Hunter (28:59)

And just so people don't freak out, Eagles are minus one and a half in our contest.

Chad Millman (29:04)

Oh, got it. Even better.

Simon Hunter (29:05)

If it lands on two, we're gonna worry. I'm not, I'm not winning a lot of Ralph. I'm losing a ton of money if it lands on two. So I just want to make sure people know it's one and a half.

Chad Millman (29:16)

Good to know. Good to know. Cincinnati plus five and a half. And it is five and a half in the contest.

Simon Hunter (29:22)

So, yeah, if you want this to be your baby, Chad, you want to get it in there. I got no issue with it. Just checking the weather report. Cincy, Pittsburgh. Well, I mean, we could talk about all the games affected by the lake effect win, but it's basically just what we saw with that Green Bay game against the eagles. Right. It's 15, 20 per mile stained winds, 30, 30 palm arrow gust. So, you know, this is the type of game where it might not be a lot of kick in field goals. We don't really care. We're expecting a lot of touchdowns. So pretty interesting. The win is going to be like that where I honestly think that benefits Cincy. Like that makes more randomness that I think will help since he's defense, hopefully in some ways. So I don't hate it. I just.

Chad Millman (30:01)

Well, look, I think it's, it's. We got. We got three to choose. Two. Cincy plus five and a half. Houston minus six and a half. The Raiders plus three and a half. If you feel that strongly about the Raiders, we can go with it. I have no opinion on it and I'm, I have more of an opinion on the other two games. But you don't seem to have an opinion on Cincinnati. Whereas I think we both feel like the Texans are the right side.

Simon Hunter (30:30)

They are. I think it's just, it's about the line movement and Our contest is seven and a half.

Chad Millman (30:38)

Forget it. I didn't know that. I thought it was six and a half.

Simon Hunter (30:41)

Like, that's a, that's a Tennessee line. No, I'm, I'm having a tough, tough, tough go at this week because I do love the dogs and we're both kind of grossed out by those dogs. Like, again, I'm, I'm not here to force in Denver because Denver is three and a half in our contest. It's now four and a half. I'm not going to force that one in. Cardinals an interesting game. It's up to three and a half now. Purdy's first start, Jacksonville. I have to look see what that number is. That number hasn't budget all week. Like, there's a couple numbers like that that are just like, man, as, like a, as a professional, it's like I feel like I have to take these numbers, but like you said, we just, we don't love them. That's the hardest part about trying to get them as our five. It's like I haven't bet into them like that to make them one of my five. Where the Raiders. I can take that stand, I guess, even though I hate it. But I'm. I bet it's the. I bet into a really heavy. And it's a good number. I'm going to check right now first to make sure it's three and a half in the contest because at two and a half, like we talked about, it's a. It's a not. It's not even a contest or a conversation.

Chad Millman (31:46)

Well, I wouldn't imagine that it is because it's kind of been three and a half from the day we started talking about it. So, yeah, it is three numbers.

Simon Hunter (31:55)

All right, so this, this is what I put in. Chad, I'll just give you what I put in for us after Thursday show. I put in Eagles minus one and a half, Cleveland plus eight and a half, LA minus two and a half. I put your cincy in at plus five and a half. And then I had Carolina in a plus three and a half. Now, I still like Carolina, but like, you can tell I'm not as confident as I was on Thursday's show. I just, I just don't like stuff I've read and seen from Bryce Young out of practice this week. But I still think it's such a, such a huge number for an Atlanta team. I just do not believe in, to be favored in.

Chad Millman (32:30)

I gotta tell you, I like, I like the Panthers more than I like the Raiders.

Simon Hunter (32:33)

Okay, so you want to do that then? Just keep it as I had it on Thursday.

Chad Millman (32:37)

Yeah, we didn't talk about. We didn't talk about. Yeah, we didn't talk about the Panthers on the show at all just now. You and I both got a little bit scared off because we did see some movement that worried us. I think in some places this line has moved up to four, right?

Simon Hunter (32:52)

Yeah.

Chad Millman (32:53)

So we were betting against the number that we talked about on Thursday, and I think you've probably been hearing some stuff and I didn't like what I was seeing in the number. I don't know. I mean, I just don't have any faith in the Raiders. I could see Brock Bowers.

Simon Hunter (33:09)

I know you hate them going for.

Chad Millman (33:11)

10 and 150, but, like, with the.

Simon Hunter (33:13)

Way we're set up right now, if he did Carolina, we would have two 1pm games. Both would be road. Road dogs, which I love. And like I said, Arizona, a team I like, it's two and a half. So, like, that's not. I'm gonna force in there. And obviously Denver plus three and a half, I'm not gonna force in. So, yeah, it's. I'll put it up to you. If you want to do. If you want to do Carolina over the Raiders, let's do Carolina. I can give you for not believing the Schraders team once again.

Chad Millman (33:44)

I can't wait. All right, so our final five are going to be Cincy plus five and a half. The Rams are two and a half in the contest. We still like them at three. If people are only able to get three, we've bettered at three. The Cleveland Browns plus eight and a half in the contest. There's mostly seven and a half. We still like it at seven and a half. It's Philadelphia minus one and a half in the contest. We have been betting it at two and a half. Go ahead. We are not uncomfortable with that. And then Carolina plus three and a half, which we've been going back and forth on. But those are our final five. We're gonna be back later on tonight to review everything we've done today. All the misery, all the angst, all the glory will be on Sharper Square. YouTube. 7:30ish. As soon as that last afternoon, late afternoon 8 game ends. Watch or listen on YouTube @ Sharper Square all the time, like. And subscribe to the channel. You can download some Spotify Apple pods wherever you get your pods. Rate, Review. Subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Till next time. Love you.

Colin Coward (35:05)

Hey, let's be careful.

Simon Hunter (35:13)

Foreign.

Colin Coward (35:17)

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Coca Cola Sponsor (35:47)

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Chad Millman (35:49)

All.

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Total Wireless Sponsor (37:29)

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Simon Hunter (38:20)

This is an iHeart podcast.