Sharp or Square: FINAL NFL WEEK 12 BETS – Eagles-Cowboys, Steelers-Bears, Vikings-Packers, Browns-Raiders, Bucs-Rams and More

Podcast: Sharp or Square
Hosts: Chad Millman, Simon Hunter
Date: November 23, 2025
Time Covered: 03:41 – 34:50

Episode Overview

This week, betting expert Chad Millman and pro sports gambler Simon Hunter break down their top five NFL Week 12 picks – digging deep into line movement, public vs. sharp money, and the key injury situations affecting marquee matchups like Eagles–Cowboys, Steelers–Bears, and more. The duo walk listeners through their process, debate contest picks, and provide actionable insight for bettors looking to gain an edge.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Seattle Seahawks -13 at Tennessee Titans

• Chad and Simon are wary: the line is moving down (sharps on Tennessee), but both think Seattle is the stronger side.
• Concern over backing such a big favorite.
• Simon: “If we’re going to put one big number favorite in there, I think you know where I’m going to go with that.” (05:21)
• Ultimately, they pass on this number for the contest.

2. New York Giants at Detroit Lions (-12.5)

• Lions were a “Simon says” pick all week at -10/-10.5. The line ballooned due to rumors about Giants' QB, but it stays a strong spot for Detroit.
• Chad: “This was Detroit all the way all week.” (08:45)
• Both happy to have gotten the best number earlier, but would still play Lions up to -12.5.

3. New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals (+7.5)

• Bengals are Chad & Simon’s “rock and hard play.”
• Flacco starting confirmed but number only moved modestly.
• Simon: “Cincy’s defense is atrocious. If Flacco throws a pick six, we’re probably going to be burned. But... this is actually a really good matchup for Cincinnati.” (09:46)
• Chad: “Detroit and Cincinnati were always gonna be in no matter what.” (11:33)
• In contest, they have Bengals +8.5 and love the value.

4. Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

• Chad is emphatic: “I love the Cardinals here, Simon. I love them and I don’t think we can leave them out.” (13:14)
• Simon agrees on the value, notes pros are aligned, and is comfortable making this a contest pick.

5. New Orleans Saints (-1.5) at Atlanta Falcons

• Chosen as the “Brass Balls Bet of the Week” — not a play on loving the Saints, but fading the depleted Falcons.
• Chad: “It’s really about betting against Kirk Cousins... this is entirely betting against Atlanta, not betting on New Orleans.” (14:00)
• Simon sees sharp money on Atlanta; both discuss discomfort with Saints’ backup QB Shough but agree matchup supports Saints.

6. Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-3)

• Millman’s concern: Eagles offense is shaky, especially minus Lane Johnson; Cowboys D improving.
• Simon: “I just think there’s something terribly wrong with this Eagles offense... [the pros] said this was a trap game and this is a loss on the Eagles’ schedule.” (17:49)
• In the contest, they get Dallas +3.5 and lock it in.

7. Deciding the Final Five (Colts vs. Saints vs. Others)

• Both mull over a 5-team home-heavy ticket.
• Simon makes a strong case for Colts +3.5 (at Chiefs): key defensive returns, pros stubbornly chasing the Chiefs, Mahomes can win without covering.
  • “I just really love the number and the side… Jonathan Taylor’s gonna be able to get his.” (21:30)
• Chad prefers Saints but relents for contest drama: “Last week, I think it was on me... So this week, why don’t we go with you and you take the Colts instead of the Saints and it will make for fun drama later in the day.” (26:48)

The Final Five Picks

Locked picks for the Hard Rock contest:

1. Colts +3.5 (at Chiefs)
2. Detroit -10.5 (vs. Giants; up to -12.5 market still playable)
3. Cincinnati +8.5 (vs. Patriots; +7.5 in market still good)
4. Dallas +3.5 (vs. Eagles; but take +3 or better in market)
5. Arizona +2.5 (vs. Jaguars)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On consensus building:
  “This is the in-the-room eavesdropping version of the Sunday Sharper Square show…Because we are human. We make decisions we regret. I have no doubt that will happen today.” — Chad Millman (04:10)

• On the Cardinals Jags matchup:
  “I feel like the Cardinals with Jacoby Brissett are a different offense... I love the Cardinals here, Simon. I love them and I don’t think we can leave them out.” — Chad (13:14)

• On line movement and pro-vs-public tension:
  “Surprisingly, the pros were betting the Giants…they totally misread it and yeah, I’m just happy we stuck to our Detroit love.” — Simon (07:41)

• On public vs. sharp money:
  “A ton of professional money has come in on this Falcon side. So it looks like that’s where everyone’s going.” — Simon, re: Saints-Falcons (14:44)

• On betting psychology:
  “I just, I can’t avoid it. Eight and a half is such a good number.” — Chad, reluctant but practical on Bengals (25:24)

• When discussing the importance of contest balance:
  “It just doesn’t look right to have all five of our picks be home teams…These little quirks usually save us.” — Simon (25:51)

Important Timestamps

• 03:41 – Show proper starts: Identifying five favorite picks for contest.
• 04:38 – Seattle-Tennessee breakdown begins.
• 06:32 – Giants-Lions discussion; locking in Lions.
• 08:45 – Flacco news, Patriots-Bengals analysis.
• 13:14 – Chad’s passionate endorsement for Cardinals vs. Jags.
• 14:00 – Saints-Falcons as “Brass Balls” pick.
• 17:49 – Eagles-Cowboys; warning signs for Philly, locking in Cowboys.
• 21:28 – Colts’ case, pros chasing Chiefs, making the case for road underdogs.
• 24:00 – Chad and Simon debate Colts vs. Saints for final slot.
• 26:48 – Final five picks agreed upon, rationale for Colts over Saints.
• 33:28 – Chad asks about KC’s home winning streak; Simon unmoved ("we just need to cover").
• 33:47 – Summary of contest picks; actionable advice on line shopping.
• 34:50 – Outro and plans to recap Sunday’s action post-late games.

Tone & Takeaway

Frank and lively, full of authentic gambler’s debate. Both hosts emphasize transparency in their process—admiring sharp betting intelligence, but not afraid to fade pro consensus if their own logic or the data stacks stronger elsewhere. They juggle contest game theory, line movement, and real-world betting context—a must-listen for sharp and square bettors alike.

If you’re betting NFL Week 12:

• The hosts preferred early numbers, but their rationale for each side is timeless: value, matchup, and lineup context.
• Markets may move, but the edge comes from process—not hype or public bias.
• As Chad echoes near the end: “Feedback is a gift… Love you. Right now it’s time to take a step forward.” (34:47)