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Chad Millman (3:41)

That'S odoo.com welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock Bet. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the square sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined as always by my co host, my bff, my compadre, my companion, professional better Simon Hunter. Hello Simon, Chad.

Simon Hunter (4:09)

How we doing brother?

Chad Millman (4:10)

I'm moving a little bit slowly today so we gotta pick it up. We gotta pick it up and we gotta find a our five favorite picks. This is the in the room eavesdropping version of the Sunday Sharper Square show. In the morning you're all going to get to hear how we come to our conclusion. Because we are human. We make decisions we regret. I have no doubt that will happen today. Are you ready my brother?

Simon Hunter (4:37)

Let's do it.

Chad Millman (4:38)

All right. Seattle -13 at Tennessee. We have like this all week. I will say we are starting to see signs even though it's a 13 or hard rock bet that it is moving in the other direction. It's one of the few big numbers that is moving in the other direction towards Tennessee. Show some wise guys are coming in on the Titans. I don't see it. I don't get it. This is the best team that the Titans have played in the past few weeks. It will go against their tendency to cover the back door. I don't think the Seahawks have the same holes that their opponents the past few weeks the Texans and the Chargers have. I still like the Seahawks Here. Is it one of our favorite five?

Simon Hunter (5:21)

Yeah. I don't know because it's tough because it is such a big number. We don't like betting such big numbers like this. So if we're going to put one big number favorite in there, I think you know where I'm going to go with that.

Chad Millman (5:30)

I don't know if I think I agree. Yeah.

Simon Hunter (5:32)

But yeah, I still, I still bet Seattle. Still like Seattle. But we talked earlier in the week, there are some pros. I really like Tennessee. They've been making money off Tennessee like we talked about since they fired their head coach. They've just been a backdoor covering machine. And it's interesting, like you just said, this number 13 here, but a lot of books you see are going down to 12 and a half, 12 and some even touched 11 and a half. So that's some real money coming in on Tennessee at this point. And yeah, I think we're both on the same page where we don't see it. We don't really get it because the Seahawks team, to us there's just a very dominant defense where when Sam Darnold puts it together, it's a great offense as well. So I just, I can't see it. If I was going to take a position, maybe I'll throw a little bit on Tennessee first half. But everything I've bet so far is just purely Seahawks in the number. But like you said in our contest, we're playing the number here and I'm not thrilled to try to be forcing a big Seahawks number at 13 and a half and that's what it is in our contest. So gonna have to pass on that one.

Chad Millman (6:32)

Especially when the next game we're talking about the New York Giants at the Detroit Lions. The Lions have moved to 12 and a half. It moved to 12 and a half after our Thursday show. We've been hyping the Lions all week at ten. At ten and a half. They were your Simon says there were some rumors Jackson Dart might play this week. It's going to be Jameis. I always was betting into it thinking it was Jameis. We love the Lions here. I think it's going to be impossible for us to ignore the the Lions as the big favorite against the Giants.

Simon Hunter (7:08)

Yeah, it's been my favorite all week. Big favorite. And like you said, the. The dart move, that was the most shocking part of this. The dart dark getting put out as move this two and a half, three points like hard rock now is up to 13. A lot of other books are up to 13 and a half more. The more public books are up to 13 and a Half. So just shows you this early morning, which we knew was going to happen, right. The public was going to come in heavy on this Detroit side. But surprisingly the pros were betting the Giants. It was a dark bet which again, I, I, I just, I get he's highly talented.

Chad Millman (7:41)

It never made sense though.

Simon Hunter (7:42)

No, it never made sense to me. Like you're, you're really betting heavy into dark coming off a head injury in this matchup that I'm not sure you can exploit really. But yeah, the, we, we obviously feel way more comfortable now the line's gone the other way and we have the best of the number, which I hope if you listen the show did because our contest, like you just said, it's minus ten and a half. So I still would bet the lines if you could get the 12 and a half. I just, I think people listen to this, it's going to be already 13, 13 and a half. Which again, I'm not gonna let scare me off. It's as as much praise you want to give Jameis Winston. I think he threw for 200 yards, zero touchdowns last week. Like he's not, he's, he's just doesn't have the weapons. Like we've seen James play really well, especially in Tampa and different offenses he's had, he had great weapons there. He doesn't really have that with this Giants team. So. Giants got the COVID last week. The pros, they tried to come back on them this week thinking it was gonna be Jackson dart. They totally misread it and yeah, I'm just happy we stuck to our Detroit love. And like I said, it's, it's moving. If you can get it below the 13 and a half, I would try to do that now.

Chad Millman (8:45)

Never even made sense to me. I never occurred to me that Jackson dart was going to be the reason why this line would be holding at ten and a half from moving up to twelve and a half that he was out. This was Detroit all the way all week. New England at Cincinnati. It's been a tricky one. The Bengals are seven seven and a half point underdogs. Depending on where you look, it's everywhere. If you can get the seven and a half, you should go get it. The Cincinnati Bengals with Joe Flacco starting are going to be our rock and hard plays. Hard rock bet of the week. Look, we were betting into this early in the week when we thought it was going to be Joe Flacco. Then the rumors came out it might be Joe Burrow that moved under six and a half when it became Flacco went back up to seven and a half. Nothing in my opinion or position has changed. The Bengals are just the right side here.

Simon Hunter (9:46)

Yeah. And like you said it's I, I, I honestly am shocked that bro didn't get his way and able to play in this game. They said they're just trying to protect him because it's a short week. Right. They have a game I believe Thursday at Thanksgiving against the Ravens. So you know that makes sense. Right. They're trying to protect himself in this matchup. But I, I am also shocked. The number only moved by a point which was interesting. Right. Because it got yeah, I am two and a half. Yeah, I was hoping it would get up to eight, eight and a half like it was early in the week. But the books like you just said, they're holding firm at seven and a half and even Hard Rock is still stuck at 7. So pretty unique scenario we know we're bending into here. The Cincy's defense is atrocious. If Flacco throws a pick six we're probably going to be burned. But we keep talking about this New England team. As good as they are, they do have weaknesses you can exploit. This is actually a really good matchup for Cincinnati. Offensively it's just all about can Joe Flacco keep up with this this scoring race because we've seen Drake may even he has a throne for 300 yards this year. I think he's leading the league in passing yards. I know that has play a part because he hasn't had his bye week yet but it just shows how consistent the offense is. Right. Even on bad days may still throw for over 200 yards and get putting his team in best positions to win. So you know we gave up the stat. They've won a straight, they're due for a letdown game, due for a loss. There's a couple teams like that this week. Them and the Eagles feel like the prime example of teams. They're just due for a loss in a bad spot because it's just matchup wise not great for them. So in our contest Chad, we're never going to avoid it. Cincinnati Bengals are plus eight and a half. So this is the game I put in for us, whatever that was Tuesday or Wednesday and I just knew it doesn't matter if it's going to be Joe Burrow or Flacco, we're going to be playing as long as it's one of The Joes, like I said, all week, we'll be on this number. So, you know, Flacco said his shoulder is good. We got to trust him.

Chad Millman (11:33)

Take this play, this matchup Detroit and Cincinnati were on. It was always gonna be later in the day when we're talking about the one we left out and the one we kept in. We know that these were always gonna be in no matter what. So we cannot walk away from the idea that, oh, if only we had left one of these out. Cause we're not another one. I have felt strongly all week, Chad's choice. Arizona is a two and a half point underdog at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars. I said on Tuesday it was Chad's choice of two and a half, but I told everybody, wait for it to get to three. It got to three and immediately got bet back down to two and a half. Maybe I'm being irrational. I love the Cardinals here. I feel like the Cardinals with Jacoby Brissett are a different offense. It doesn't matter that Marvin Harrison Jr. Isn't playing. He'll just throw Mike Wilson into 185 yards. He'll find Trey McBride for 10 receptions. I think that this Jaguars team is winning on the guts and guile and smarts of Liam Cohn. Not anything to do with Trevor Lawrence, who I think he's trying to diminish the impact he can have negatively. Liam Cohen is trying to diminish the impact Trevor Lawrence can have on this game. And also the Cardinals might be getting back two of their four defensive backs. They had been missing for the past few weeks when this defense has been beginning to crater. So I love the Cardinals here, Simon. I love them and I don't think we can leave them out.

Simon Hunter (13:14)

All right, I'll put them in for you. I like the Cardinals. Why? I bet it, like you said, it's. It's the type of number where I would have put a lot more if they weren't historically horrible defensively. This Cardinals team. Yeah, but like we keep saying, it feels like a nice spot for this Cardinals team. A team that, you know, as much as people don't want to believe it, because like you talked about, The Jags are 6 and 4. They're not that much better when you really break it all down than the three and seven Cardinals right now. So it's not shocking that this is a huge play by the public, this Jaguars team. But it is shocking to me how even the money is, like you said, the professionals have really come in on the Cardinals side. So I Like it enough to put it in. You seem to really love it, so I'm happy to put this as one of our five.

Chad Millman (14:00)

All right. Our brass balls bet of the week was New Orleans. I think we got it at minus two against Atlanta. To me, this wasn't a bet on the Saints or believing that they are a competitive team or the Tyler Shock is all of a sudden going to be a serviceable NFL quarterback. It's really about betting against Kirk Cousins, betting against the fact Drake London is out. Drake London, who accounts for something like 40% of the team's passing yards. So to me, this is entirely betting against Atlanta, not betting on New Orleans. How are we feeling today?

Simon Hunter (14:44)

Yeah, I can't believe it. Obviously, if you've been watching the number, a ton of professional money has come in on this Falcon side because I got to two and a half. Hard rock here in Jersey's down to one and a half on this game. So it looks like that's where everyone's going. They're moving this line back down and, yeah, this will be a line I love like you do, where, you know, it's not ideal after. We don't really believe in this kid shuck, but we believe in the matchup for the Saints team and we just want to fade Kirk Cousins while we possibly can. So I'm just looking at the splits right now. Again, every book is different. A couple of bookmakers I've talked to, they said it was pretty split money, but just looking at the really public books right now, it's a lot of Falcons money. So pretty interesting that the public is coming in so heavy on this Falcons team. Like we said, it's a Saints off a bye week. You would think they'd be able to prepare and play pretty well here in the spot against a Falcons team that's missing their best weapon. And Drake one. I mean, I guess Bijan Robson's their best weapon, but people know what I mean. Drake London, he's just been an absolute game changer for this team, and their whole offensive passing game runs through him. So we already think Kirk Cousins terrible. Now you're taking away his number one option. I just. I can't get behind this Atlanta team. So if it's. If it's our last one in, I'm. I'm cool with it. They're like, we'll see how you feel about these other games I'm gonna bring up here. But Saints right now are minus one and a half in our contest. That's what I bet him on. I like The Saints. It's just I'm a little worried about taking Shook here. I'm not going to lie.

Chad Millman (16:15)

Yeah, I am too. But at one and a half I kind of like the number and I just have no faith in the Falcons. Their lack of offensive ability here worries me. And the one thing that I would say about the Saints, who again, I have not been a Saints backer all season. I think this will be the first time I bet them. I do think defensively they're competent against the run. And you mentioned Bijan. The one thing the Falcons we know they're going to have to do is rely on Bijan and the running game. So if there is a matchup that favors or gives the Saints some credibility, it is against the runs. Right now we've. We've locked in Detroit, we've locked in Cincinnati, we've locked in Arizona. We like the Saints. There are a couple of games that I still, I think we still have to talk about to get to our final one. Slash to Philadelphia at Dallas. This thing is settled at 3. I've started to come around on Dallas. I know you've been betting into Dallas all week. I think that I don't want to overstate Dallas's defense getting better off of one game against the Las Vegas Raiders, but I do think they have improved and I think with Quinn Williams they all of a sudden are a lot more competent defensively and getting guys back from the injured list. But I do worry a lot about the Eagles offense right now and not having Lane Johnson.

Simon Hunter (17:49)

Yeah. And I honestly, I don't really trust this Cowboys defense is really. I think both of us are just fading. The Seagulls offense or just something seems wrong with them like you said now without Lane, it's gonna be interesting how they do because we've seen those. Those trends like Jalen Hurts has not been good without Lane Johnson on that field. And you know, once again another game where I tried to tell people a really smart group that came in very heavy taking position on this Cowboys team and I just knew this number was going to disappear and it did. Right. The three and a half has disappeared. So lucky enough for us, our contest is three and a half. We're. I was never going to let us not take this for our picks. It's just a unique spot we have to play. And even if I don't believe in this Cowboys defense, I just, I think there's something terribly wrong with this Eagles offense. And as much I want to believe this is a right spot for them like you Said Lane is out. Devonte Smith is up in the air. He traveled individually separate from the team. He's got a lot of stuff going on his personal life. So you know there is a possibility devonte Smith might be a healthy scratch and now that's even more of a weakness to this team. So for the Eagles of course this is a get right game. But I just look at this Dallas team and you know I think offensively we talked about it in the week one. I will always favor this Dallas team. They're playing a team the week number two corner and that's what the Eagles have. They have a weak number two corner. So you know the Eagle strength or is that D line, that linebacking core downfield passing has been their weakness all season. That seems like where Dak has really excelled, especially with Ferguson. The tight ends really showed up this year. So I just met look at the matchup wise. I love it for Dallas here and once again we love the numbers so I wouldn't be scared off by the Cowboys taking the three. I've said it. I don't want people touching the Eagles at all, money line or anything else. It's just I've been warned myself so I'm trying to warn people off of it. It just seems like the pros of circus is a trap game and that this is a loss on the Eagle schedule which I know you can't wrap your head around it, but it's just like that Thursday night game. I could have wrapped my head around them telling me that Houston was a trap game for Bills and they were going to lose that game outright. You got to see it to believe and I feel it's the same thing here. We'll, we'll get the vibes early on here if this is a good pick or not. And like I always say the Eagles, their offense is going to break through eventually but with the way it is right now just going back and re watching that game, you can see the receivers don't believe in the offense. I don't think Hertz believes in it. So I just think it's total dysfunction right now on this Eagle side and the Cowboys you're getting a great number. Anything three and above.

Chad Millman (20:15)

Yeah, again, again, again. Again. We're good on the Cowboys at plus three. It's not a question for us. So the Cowboys will be in our contest. That's four. So now we're looking at the Saints as being the fifth one in. Do we talk about the Colts? Are we talking about Carolina? So no matter what interesting to me.

Simon Hunter (20:43)

It'S got to be a road team because right now we're sitting on five home teams, which isn't. Isn't it ideal? And, you know, we basically, this week we have a weird thing. We love all the home teams. I do love some road teams, but I don't know how confident you feel them. So two road dogs I really like is Pittsburgh plus two and a half and the Colts plus three and a half. Now this cold steam, I get it, the hesitation, right? It's Daniel Jones outdoors against a really good defense and we've seen him struggle in this exact spot. But they're getting their number one cornerback, like, that's a big deal to me. The fact that Ward is coming back in this matchup, they have him and Sauce now on the field together. That's the first time they've had this matchup all season. Because I don't know if you remember, I think Ward got a concussion in their warm ups, right? He ran into a teammate.

Chad Millman (21:28)

That's right.

Simon Hunter (21:30)

I don't know if you read about it. It's terrifying. It's like, again, I'm not trying to get a whole CTE rant, but he shouldn't be. Remember, he shouldn't be playing in this game. He's saying he, he didn't know who he was for a little bit. For a day or two after, it's like, what are we doing here? But again, he's their best corner. He is going to play. He's back. We have to take advantage of that scheme. I think that's a huge matchup. And this is another number where I thought just like the Cowboys, this would just be threes across the board. But talk to a lot of pros like we've talked about, there's some trends. I really favor this Chiefs team, they love this chief's team and I think it's them just chasing a ghost of the past. It was like last week, I mean, we saw the Chiefs get up to what, four and a half before kickoff against Denver. So it's like the pros keep bent into and they keep getting burned and they keep saying, well, no, it's this week. So I'm not going to let the professional money scare me off. I'm going to dig in here on this Colts team. I just really love the number and the side and I think Mahomes will win this game. They're the more desperate team. I just feel like they need a lot of things to go right. They really do need a Daniel Jones meltdown. To me to cover this number just because looking at the matchups, Jonathan Taylor's gonna be able to get his. I think run wise, he'll be able to get his against a Chiefs defense that struggled in some aspects against good running games. And you know, defensively, I think it's a big deal they got their number one cornerback where Chiefs offense, we kept saying last week, we kept expecting Mahomes to save people at the end there. Right. You expect him, when he got the ball back to drive the field and he didn't, he pointed it back to Bo Nicks who drove the field and got the field goal. So it's just about the number. Chad, I know you don't love it. It's a little bit of a scary spot because it is Daniel Jones and Arrowhead. But I really like the three and a half year. And if I can't get you on that one, can I talk into Pittsburgh against the Bears?

Chad Millman (23:11)

Well, would you rather do Pittsburgh or Carolina plus seven against San Francisco?

Simon Hunter (23:20)

I just, I. There's something about the Carolina I just don't like. I mean, I'm gonna bet it because it is seven and a half now to almost every book, but I just. I don't get it. I do not get the number. Movement. And they were taking all Panthers money. Like I've talked to.

Chad Millman (23:36)

Yeah.

Simon Hunter (23:37)

Four different books over the last two days. And you know, the one pit boss was joking me is just like, we're actually begging for 49ers money right now. I'm like, we're gonna get it. People are gonna come in on their Moneyline parlays. I just, I was shocked here. There's so much public faith in Carolina and also for us in our contest. They're six and a half. So I just, I can't get there on them, Jet. I'm sorry.

Chad Millman (24:00)

I'd much rather do Colts than Steelers.

Simon Hunter (24:04)

Colts.

Chad Millman (24:05)

Yeah.

Simon Hunter (24:06)

So I know you saw the Bears injury report though, right?

Chad Millman (24:09)

Yeah. Look, they're missing all three of their linebackers.

Simon Hunter (24:12)

All three. And I think between the three guys they they're starting have two snaps between them in the NFL or something ridiculous like that. It's. It just feels like a terrible, terrible spot for the Bears. But I get it. We're like, we're. We don't even know if Rogers is the quarterback. Honestly don't care. But if I'm just strictly going off the number, I. I prefer obviously the Colts because we're getting the three and a half hook rather than.

Chad Millman (24:35)

That's kind of what that's my thinking is I think they're two and a half versus three and a half. So give me the Colts getting more than a field goal rather than the Steelers, who. And. And the Bears, who have been cardiac every single week and who knows? You know.

Simon Hunter (24:54)

I'm cool. It's. Right now we'd have Colts, Cincy, Detroit, Arizona, Dallas. So we got.

Chad Millman (25:01)

And so we're taking out New Orleans.

Simon Hunter (25:03)

Yeah, I had them as our fifth. Is there a. I mean, if there's another team you rather switch out, like, the only one I honestly am worried about for us is the Bengals, just like last week.

Chad Millman (25:13)

Yeah, of course.

Simon Hunter (25:14)

It's like, are we going to get burned again by this Bengals team that we just know is atrocious defensively, but I just. I can't avoid it. Eight and a half is such a good number.

Chad Millman (25:24)

Yeah, I don't want to take out the Bengals. I can't believe I'm saying that. I feel like the Colts are a better bet right now than the. That. That the Saints are a better bet than the Colts.

Simon Hunter (25:39)

I mean, I get it. Like, it feels like it's a nice number. We're fading, Kirk. I just. I don't know if I can let us just put five home teams. So we have to at least take one road team.

Chad Millman (25:49)

Why, though?

Simon Hunter (25:51)

I just.

Chad Millman (25:51)

I don't like five road teams are going to win. If we choose the five road teams, then we're right.

Simon Hunter (25:57)

But I'm saying, like, we're in a spot where we're on again. It's just. I'm just looking at. It just doesn't look right to have all. All five of our picks be home teams. I know it sounds stupid, but these little things, these little quirks on my. Chad saves us. Usually when I look at weird things like this. So if you want to own it, I'll let you own it. If you want to do Saints over Colts, I just. I think it's a mistake.

Chad Millman (26:22)

Well, that's what makes it fun.

Simon Hunter (26:25)

I don't.

Chad Millman (26:33)

I don't know, man. I'm. I'm completely torn. I've bet into the Saints much more aggressively than I've bet into the Colts. You bet into the Colts, I think much more aggressively than you've bet into the Saints.

Simon Hunter (26:45)

Yeah, that's definitely true.

Chad Millman (26:48)

Last week, I think it was on me, and I took. I think I ended up taking the Panthers instead of the Raiders. So this week, why don't we go with you and you take the Colts instead of the Saints and it will make for fun drama later in the day.

Simon Hunter (27:07)

All right.

Chad Millman (27:08)

So the final the final five will be Colts plus three and a half. Dallas plus three and a half in the contest, but we still love him at three. The Cards plus two and a half. Cincy's at seven and a half but they're eight and a half in the contest. We like them at both numbers. And Detroit, there are 10 and a half in the contest. If you can find the 12 and a half for Detroit, you still want to get the 12.5. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard RockBet. There are three things to be thankful for this week family, food and football. And thanks to Hard Rock Bet, you can easily sneak in bets while your crazy uncle goes on his annual rant about the good old days. Sign up today and you could find feast with $150 in bonus bets. Just place a $5 bet. If it hits, you get not only your winnings, but also $150 in extra bonus bets. That's an offer you can't pass up, even on a full stomach. Not sure where to place your first bet? Head over to Hard Rock Bet Stats hub and it'll help you out. It's loaded with trends, streaks and stats to help guide your picks. Numbers don't lie, and neither does the data in there. Here's one that stood out to me when the packers are home Favorites Josh Jacobs has scored a touchdown in 10 straight games. Man, we love Josh Jacobs touchdown bets. Plus this week on Hard Rock Bet, you get three 50% profit boost, one for each Thanksgiving Day football game. Boost your same game parlay or SGP max so your bets pay extra winnings. There's new promos every day, so if you're listening to this later, just open the app and check out what you've got. Any day of the week, download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit payable in bonus bets. Not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida. Offered by Seminole hard Rock Digital LLC and all other states must be 21 or over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play, terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1833 playwise in Indiana. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9 with it Gambling problem? Call 1-800- gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee and Virginia.

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Simon Hunter (29:44)

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Chad Millman (33:28)

Scare you at all that in the Hard Rock Bet stats hub, Kansas City has won 15 in a row as a home favorite. Does that worry you at all?

Simon Hunter (33:41)

Um, not really. All right, again, they can win the game. I just. We need to cover brother.

Chad Millman (33:47)

All right, the final five once again. We're going with the Colts instead of the Saints. The Colts plus three and a half. We got Detroit minus 10 and a half in the contest. They're 12 and a half in a lot of places. Grab it if you can. The Bengals plus seven and a half everywhere. Plus eight and a half in the contest. Dallas plus three. We like that number even though it's three and a half in the context. We're going with Arizona plus two and a half. Okay, we will be back later in the day. This has been Sharper Square part of the Volume podcast network. Tonight 7:30 after the latest of the afternoon games. That should be Bucs Rams. We're going to recap all the misery and glory of the day. Watch or listen on YouTube @Sharpersquare. Like the video. Subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you get your pods. Rate, Review, Subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift until tonight. Love you. Right now it's Time to take a step forward.

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Chad Millman (34:52)

Back to back.

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Simon Hunter (36:41)

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This is that classic HBCU vibe. Non stop action. The band is rocking and the crowd lit. Chance echoing drum beatin everybody showing that school pride. A game like this. Yeah, it calls for an ice cold Coca Cola. Ah, crisp and refreshing. That's a game changer right there. Yeah, that taste always hits the right note. Just like the band at halftime. And just like that, we're back at it. Passionate fans, school colors everywhere and an ice cold Coca Cola. That's a winning combo no matter the sport no matter the yard. Everybody knows fan work is thirsty work. So grab a Coca Cola and keep that HBCU pride going.

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