Sharp or Square – Final NFL Week 13 Bets

Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Episode Date: November 30, 2025

Episode Overview

This “Sharper Square” episode, hosted by Chad Millman and professional sports gambler Simon Hunter, is a rapid-fire, data-driven dive into the NFL Week 13 slate. As they zero in on their final five contest picks, Chad and Simon analyze the sharp (pro) versus square (public) sides on big matchups like 49ers-Browns, Texans-Colts, Bills-Steelers, Giants-Patriots, and Rams-Panthers. Listeners get expert insights on injury news, line moves, public and professional betting trends, and actionable takes for both contest and betting pools.

Key Discussion Points & Game-by-Game Analysis

1. Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts

Discussion starts: [05:15]

• Line Movement: Opened at Colts -4.5, down to -3 due to C.J. Stroud’s return and Daniel Jones’ injury.
• Simon loves the Colts’ matchup but is wary backing a quarterback (Daniel Jones) “playing on potentially a broken leg”.
• Colts’ strength was defense, but injuries to both Daniel Jones and TE Tyler Warren make backing them risky.
• Consensus:
  • Sharper contest pick: Houston +4.5 (if you can get it).
  • Best bet for the public: Houston +3 > Colts -3.
• Notable quote:
  • “You’re telling me I gotta back a quarterback playing on potentially a broken leg… That’s a big weapon gone.” – Simon [05:54]
  • Chad: “I did take a piece of the Texans at +3 just because. Why not? I love their defense. I like them at home.” [07:30]

2. San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns

Discussion starts: [08:07]

• Line Movement: Climbed from Browns +6.5 to +5.5, then back up; weather concerns initially pushed it down.
• Chad is heavy on the Browns at +6.5, +6, +5.5 (also Browns ML). Loves their defense and especially Myles Garrett (“14 sacks in last five games!”).
• Weather was a factor; not as bad now, but still gives Browns a stylistic advantage.
• Public is split, not overwhelmingly on either side.
• Consensus:
  • Still love the Browns at +5.5; “money is not all on the 49ers.”
• Notable quote:
  • "All the trends about fading this 49ers team after wins and covers, it's just a spot we love." – Simon [09:50]

3. Atlanta Falcons at New York Jets

Discussion starts: [10:36]

• Line Movement: Falcons -2.5 up to -3; Chad has bets at both numbers, plus Jets ML.
• Chad confident: “Not backing Kirk Cousins on the road... Jets defense is effective at stopping the run.”
• Simon likes the Jets but is less bullish, especially below +3. “I really honestly always say with this Jets team, I need every point. And yes, it's really been true.”
• Consensus:
  • Jets pick at +3, less confident at +2.5.
• Notable quote:
  • “Jets, Jets, Jets. I can't believe our confidence levels are so high on the Browns. And are you with me on the Jets?” – Chad [11:41]

4. Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans

Discussion starts: [12:33]

• Line Movement: From Jags -6.5 down to -6 as sharp money hits Titans.
• Titans have been backdoor covering for weeks – a sign of market undervaluing, not just luck.
• Simon: “This is either Tennessee or nothing at all for either of us.”
• Public heavily on Jags; pros on Titans.
• Consensus:
  • Titans +6 if available, less enthusiastic as line drops.
• Notable quotes:
  • “They just can’t keep covering these insane back doors… but the professionals have hit it. The best you might be able to get is six.” – Simon [14:06]
  • “We're all in on Tennessee. Moneyline.” – Chad [15:53]

5. Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks

Discussion starts: [16:00]

• Vikings are +12, possibly going up (Seattle at some books -13). Max Brosmer (undrafted Q) starts.
• Chad points out Flores’ defense is perfect for disrupting Seattle’s often-shaky offense.
• Simon plans to pass – uncertain QB situation makes it a “crazy spot.”
• Consensus:
  • No action/recommendation.

6. Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers

Discussion starts: [17:29]

• Line Movement: From Steelers +3.5 to +3 as both teams suffer offensive line injuries.
• Simon: Sharps love Steelers, even at +3. Split is stark: 80% of tickets on Buffalo, 70-80% of money on Pittsburgh.
• Chad: Not much value left at +3; best of the number is gone.
• Simon: “Definition of pros vs Joes. I get why people want the Bills but… Pittsburgh can neuter Josh Allen’s athletic ability.”
• Consensus:
  • Sharp side: Steelers +3.5/>3 if still available. Ignore if not.
• Notable quote:
  • “If you look at the splits, it's like 70, 80 of the tickets are on the bills. 70, 80 of the money is on the Pittsburgh Steelers.” – Simon [20:15]

7. New York Giants at New England Patriots

Discussion starts: [21:01]

• Giants +7 (widely +7.5); Chad/Simon both loaded up early at +7.5.
• Patriots have major injuries on the left OL; Giants D-line well-positioned to exploit.
• Giants promoted a new DC, expected to be more aggressive.
• “Giants have just been unlucky” (citing Dr. Nick’s “luck rankings”).
• Consensus:
  • Giants +7.5 a strong play. “Rock in a hard place, Hard Rock Bet of the week.”
• Notable quote:
  • “This Giants team just does not quit. They play hard in every game.” – Simon [22:28]
  • “Go get that hook!” – Simon [24:49]

Noteworthy Quotes & Moments

• “You’re telling me I gotta back a quarterback playing on potentially a broken leg… That’s a big weapon gone.” – Simon, discussing Daniel Jones [05:54]
• “I've bet the Jets money line. Maybe I'm too over-ambitious in my beliefs…” – Chad [10:36]
• “All the trends about fading this 49ers team after wins and covers, it's just a spot we love.” – Simon [09:50]
• “We're all in on Tennessee. Moneyline.” – Chad [15:53]
• “Definition of pros vs Joes. I get why people want the Bills but… Pittsburgh can neuter Josh Allen’s athletic ability.” – Simon [20:15]
• “This Giants team just does not quit. They play hard in every game.” – Simon [22:28]

Moneyline Underdog & Favorite Parlays

Moneyline underdog round robin – Chad’s list:

• Pittsburgh
• Cleveland
• Jets
• Houston
• Tennessee

Favorites for moneyline parlays:

• Seattle
• Chargers (vs. Raiders)
• Miami
• Tampa Bay
• (Possible: Rams – but injury doubts on Carolina, hesitation to endorse)

Hosts’ Final Five Contest Picks

Revealed: [34:15]

1. New York Giants +7.5
2. Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 (contest line)
3. Cleveland Browns +5.5
4. Houston Texans +4.5 (contest line)
5. New York Jets +2.5
   • (Jets over Tennessee selected; Simon reluctantly agrees)

General Insights & Tone

• This is a week where most sharp plays are on underdogs – “I love all the dogs,” says Simon [30:34].
• Dogs have covered heavily already (Thanksgiving), creating hesitance about overexposing.
• Both hosts stress line value (“If you can get 4.5 in your pool, you have to play it”).
• They rely on “sharp calls” – intel from professional bettors.

Useful Timestamps

| Topic/Game | Timestamp | |---------------------------------------|-----------| | Podcast content starts | [03:09] | | Texans-Colts discussion | [05:15] | | 49ers-Browns | [08:07] | | Falcons-Jets | [10:36] | | Jaguars-Titans | [12:33] | | Vikings-Seahawks | [16:00] | | Bills-Steelers | [17:29] | | Giants-Patriots | [21:01] | | Dogs/Favorites Moneyline Parlays | [31:12] | | Final Five Contest Picks | [34:15] |

Overall Takeaway

Chad and Simon’s Week 13 approach is unapologetically sharp, faded the public by leaning into underdogs (Browns, Steelers, Giants, Texans, Jets/Titans). They relentlessly advocate for discipline with line value and encourage listeners to hunt best numbers, avoid trap moves, and trust sharp consensus, especially in a week marked by market volatility and injuries. The episode is candid, conversational, and loaded with wisdom for serious NFL bettors and contest players.