FINAL NFL WEEK 14 BETS - Bengals-Bills, Texans-Chiefs, Colts-Jaguars, Steelers-Ravens, Saints-Bucs and more

Summary

Sharp or Square – FINAL NFL WEEK 14 BETS

Podcast: Sharp or Square
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Episode Date: December 7, 2025

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Episode Overview

This episode of Sharp or Square has betting expert Chad Millman and professional sports gambler Simon Hunter breaking down their final NFL Week 14 betting card. They discuss numbers, line movement, and rationale behind their sharp and square picks with plenty of friendly banter, aiming to help listeners become sharper bettors. The episode focuses on their five favorite games for the contest using consensus lines, touches on key matchups, shares memorable betting angles, and ends with some “what to watch for” in summer soccer futures.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Reflecting on College Football's Underdog Stories ([02:51]-[05:39])

• Chad expresses emotional disbelief and joy about Indiana football’s turnaround, calling it “insanity.” Simon echoes the excitement over underdog programs rising due to strong coaches and modern changes like NIL and the transfer portal.
  • Quote: “The idea that there is a generation of people right now who are going to grow up thinking Indiana football is an exciting thing…it’s remarkable.” – Chad ([03:27])
  • Sets a lighthearted, optimistic tone for the episode.

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2. Contest Instructions & Philosophy ([05:39]-[06:57])

• First week of the new pick-em contest, where everyone uses the same lines.
• Quick reminder to sign up and play along.

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3. Game-By-Game Breakdown & Picks

A. Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars

• Lean: Jacksonville (-2.5 in contest)
• Discussion:
  • Weather concerns (potential storms/rain).
  • Reluctance to trust Trevor Lawrence in bad weather.
  • Colts’ injuries on the defensive line tip the scales.
  • Ultimately, want weather clarity before making it a core pick.
  • Quote: “We both have such reservations about backing Trevor Lawrence.” – Chad ([07:45])
  • Final Pick: In the five, but with hesitation.

B. Cleveland Browns (-3.5) vs Tennessee

• Pick: Browns -3.5 (Locked in)
• Rationale:
  • Betting on Cleveland’s stout defense, especially with inclement weather boosting their edge.
  • Moving lines suggest pro money on Cleveland.
  • Historical struggles reading Titans, but comfort backing Browns.
  • Quote: “I’ve dug in all week about how I just love this Browns team because it’s really a bet to me on their defense.” – Simon ([09:37])
  • Quote: “We have no rhythm when it comes to the Tennessee Titans.” – Chad ([11:24])

C. Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets (+2.5)

• Pick: Jets +2.5
• Justification:
  • Recency bias: Jets undervalued, Dolphins overvalued.
  • Pro money heavily on the Jets; public on Dolphins.
  • Tyrod Taylor’s remarkable ATS run.
  • Quote: “It’s a pros, pros game…truly all just pro money on the Jets.” – Simon ([12:58])
  • Quote: “We will not be scared off because we think the Jets are going to win this game outright.” – Chad ([14:31])

D. New Orleans Saints (+8.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Pick: Saints +8.5 (“Rock and a Hard Place, Hard Rock Bet of the Week”)
• Rationale:
  • Bucks overrated by the public, Saints metrics better than perceived.
  • Division dog angle—Saints perfect ATS divisional road underdogs last 3-4 years.
  • Quote: “The public continues to undervalue this Saints team…divisionally on the road as an underdog are 8-0 ATS.” – Simon ([15:57])
  • Quote: “Warren Sapp is not walking through that door.” – Chad ([18:05])

E. Houston Texans (+3.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs

• Debate:
  • Chad likes Houston at +4.5, but less so at +3.5; Simon leans Chiefs but with little confidence.
  • Chiefs' OL injuries, but suspicious line movement—potential trap.
  • Quote: “There’s something very fishy about this number and the way it’s moving.” – Simon ([20:49])
  • Outcome: Ultimately not one of the final five.

Other Games Considered:

• Cincinnati Bengals +6.5 vs Buffalo Bills: Chad interested, but not prioritized.
• Baltimore Ravens -6.5 vs Pittsburgh Steelers: Great historical dog spot for Steelers, but no strong conviction.
• Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears: Noted as “fishiest line of the week”—too much public Bears money, staying away.
• L.A. Rams -9.5 @ Arizona Cardinals:
  • Despite bad number, bet placed because injuries to Cards make blowout possible.
  • “If they win, there’s going to be a blowout.” – Chad ([25:42])

Final Five Contest Picks ([31:44])

• Jacksonville +2.5
• Cleveland -3.5
• NY Jets +2.5
• New Orleans +8.5
• LA Rams -9.5

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4. Soccer Futures Preview (Betting the Summer Tournament) ([32:14]-[37:35])

• Simon’s soccer expertise: lays out group-stage odds for international tournament in the U.S., describes group of death (France/Norway/Senegal), and USA’s easy group with value at +120 to win it.
  • Quote: “For the first time in my lifetime, this might be our best opportunity for the U.S. in the next 200 years…” – Simon ([36:01])
• Analogizes top soccer nations to picking the Super Bowl chalk.

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5. Banter, Memorable Moments & Notable Quotes

Chad showing his Bears T-shirt and Indiana hoodie:
- “Dad’s showing me his nipples, people.” – Simon ([25:09]) - Breaks up the tension and drives home the playful, irreverent chemistry between the hosts.

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Timeline of Core Segments

| Timestamp | Segment/Quote | |------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 02:51 | Chad’s Indiana football disbelief and nostalgia | | 05:39 | Set up: “semi stripped down in the room eavesdropping version”/Contest rules | | 06:57 | Colts @ Jags initial lean, weather concerns | | 09:35 | Browns-Titans confidence and defense betting reasoning | | 12:26 | Jets-Dolphins breakdown/Tyrod Taylor ATS trends | | 14:31 | Public mispricing Saints/Bucs line, division road dog stats | | 18:05 | Saints historical edge; “Warren Sapp is not walking through that door.” | | 19:15 | Debate: Texans/Chiefs—suspicious line, Chiefs injuries, red flags | | 21:21 | Interim summary of agreed picks | | 23:19 | Raiders-Broncos quick dismissal, further games considered | | 24:46 | Packers/Bears line discussion; Chad jokes about rooting for “champions” | | 25:42 | Rams-Cardinals final pick rationale | | 31:44 | Finalizing and recapping the pick-em entry | | 32:14 | Global soccer summer tourney—USA value breakdown | | 36:01 | “For the first time in my lifetime, this might be our best opportunity…” – soccer betting |

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Notable Quotes & Speaker Attribution

• “We both have such reservations about backing Trevor Lawrence.” – Chad (07:45)
• “We have no rhythm when it comes to the Tennessee Titans.” – Chad (11:24)
• “It’s a pros, pros game…all just pro money on the Jets.” – Simon (12:58)
• “The public continues to undervalue this Saints team…” – Simon (15:57)
• “Warren Sapp is not walking through that door.” – Chad (18:05)
• “There’s something very fishy about this number and the way it’s moving.” – Simon (20:49)
• “Dad’s showing me his nipples, people.” – Simon (25:09)
• Soccer: “For the first time in my lifetime, this might be our best opportunity in the next 200 years to win this tournament.” – Simon (36:01)

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Final Thoughts

This week’s Sharp or Square brings camaraderie, sharp betting logic, and some healthy risk-taking. The hosts break down their picks with data, psychology, and humility, owning their struggles and sharing their favorites with the audience. Listeners come away with not just picks, but a masterclass in contest strategy, line shopping, and “don’t bet just to bet” sensibility.

Final Five Picks for the Contest:

• Jacksonville +2.5
• Cleveland -3.5
• NY Jets +2.5
• New Orleans +8.5
• LA Rams -9.5

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Listen for:

• Why sharp money often goes against clear public favorites
• How weather and injuries impact “trust” in QBs and lines
• Which lines are “fishy” and why that matters for mid-season NFL betting
• Soccer futures value with pragmatic advice for Americans

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For more, join Chad and Simon on the Sharper Square contest page and catch their recap show after the late Sunday games.

Transcript

[Simon Hunter]

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[Sophie Cunningham]

This is Sophie Cunningham and West Wilson from Show Me Something. The second the weather drops, I'm instantly in holiday mode.

[Simon Hunter]

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[Sophie Cunningham]

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[Chad Millman]

When that tender, slow roast beef is warm and juicy, it's like soul therapy.

[Simon Hunter]

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[Sophie Cunningham]

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[Chad Millman]

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[Simon Hunter]

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[Chad Millman]

Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rock Bat. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined as always by my co host, my companion, my bff, my Compadre professional batter Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.

[Simon Hunter]

Chad. Let's get into it. How was your night, brother?

[Chad Millman]

Dude, look at this. It's so weird. It's so weird.

To root for a school that in football is literally the second losing his program in NFL history. To love the school, to love the fight song so much and to see this team that has been so historically bad. When I had gone to so many games where we'd start off the season three and oh, and then we'd play Michigan, Ohio State, Iowa, whoever in that Rinky Dink, Rinky Dink Memorial Stadium, and it'd be empty except for me and one other guy, my buddy Matt. And like, we'd get blown out and that would be the season. And we were physically dominant on the offensive line. We were strategically brilliant. We had mistakes, we got breaks. There was pageantry. The idea that there is a generation of people right now who are going to grow up thinking Indiana football is an exciting thing to experience, that Indiana tailgates on a Saturday afternoon in Bloomington are all of a sudden something people want to go to that college game day and big noon kickoff are going to want to start the season at Indiana. Like it's insanity to me. The Indiana fight song being sung on national television at the end of that game. Even my wife was happy for me. Like, it's just, it, it's, it's remarkable. It's the number of texts I'm getting for congratulations when all I did was sit on my couch and watch the game. Amazing kudos to you for giving out the Hoosiers 24 hours before the game.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, I wish I could take credit for it, but yeah, that's just following very smart people, smart money. But yeah, it's, it's what draws people into college football. I know it's a sport that gets a lot of hate because it's so top heavy. And you know, you give teams hard times because it's like, you know, if you're a die hard Arkansas fan, what is that? Life. You're never going to be relevant. But this is the exact scenario why you never give up. Right. If you get the right coach with the right kind of NL money, we should start with the top of that.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, yeah.

[Simon Hunter]

And the coach is the most important part, anything that's possible in college football. Right. If you can strike getting the coach before they leave for the big time school, you can do it. You might become a big time school. He signed now for a long time. So yeah, I just, I can't get over the turnaround if he's doing this with, you know, three, four star, two star recruits, couple five star now are gonna start rolling in. It's, it's bizarre whenever a college basketball school like Duke is now a team winning their conferences and football, it's, it's Duke, Indiana. It's, it's a bizarre time right now in the college football space. I love it.

[Chad Millman]

Freaking bizarro world nil money transfer portal. Go hire an old coach who's proven that he can win the money, does the recruiting for you. There's a blueprint here that's really, really fascinating. Um, but it's not what we're talking about today, Simon, because this is the semi stripped down in the room eavesdropping version of Sharp or Square. You and I are going to make our final five picks. And the good news now this is the first Sunday with our brand new pick em contest. We are all playing from the exact same lines, folks. Final reminder, final reminder. You still got time. You can sign up now for free. Make your picks and compete directly with me and Simon to earn your shot at our grand prize. A trip for two to the incredible Seminole Hard Rock Hotel and Casino in sunny South Florida. Go to sharp or square.thevolume.com that's sharp or square.thevolume.Com if you want to know me and Simon, our team name, chad and Simon BFFs, because that's who we are. Are you ready, my BFF, my brother, to get into it for Today, Sunday, week 14. You ready?

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, buddy.

[Chad Millman]

All right, here we go. Games we zeroed in on the other day. Indy at Jacksonville. Look, I think we've both come around. We're on Jacksonville at this point. I've actually bet Jacksonville on the money line. I didn't even bother with the spread. There might be massive thunderstorms and rain in this game.

I don't love Trevor Lawrence in any scenario, but I'm just sort of going to lean into it. I'm going to lean into the storm. I'm going to be like, you know, in Caddyshack, it's like the hard stuff's not coming down for a while. Go Jags. I just, I'm too worried about Daniel Jones. They've also got injuries along the defensive line, the Colts, with which I think is impactful for them. So we're going to stay on the Jags.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, on the Jags. But it's definitely a type of game where, you know, you don't want to make a huge position on it because of what Chad just talked about. You're. You're factoring an unknown factor into a game where we've seen it time and time again. It's not a strength at all for Trevor Lawrence to play in bad weather. I mean, just off top of my head, the one that really pops up because I'm an Eagles fan, is that game with the Jaguars and the Eagles. Jaguars dominating the game, beating the Eagles. And I think he had four fumbles. He might have lost three of them against the Eagles. And the Eagles came back and won that game the second half. So I, I don't love it for our, our Trevor Lawrence belief and bet here, but the truth still holds true, which is I think this is a Jaguars team. It's going to give real problems. Daniel Jones, that offense on the cold side, on the offensive side, I still think they'll be able to take advantage of this cold secondary. So like Chad said, it's if it's going to be one of our five, we kind of want it to be perfect scenario with this Jaguars team because we both have such reservations about backing Trevor Lawrence. So this kind of gives us the out here. If we do not want to put this in one of our five just because it makes me leave confidence knowing that's going to be really bad weather down there.

[Chad Millman]

All right, well, we don't have to do it. We don't have to do it. Tennessee or Cleveland? Another game we don't have to do. Cleveland is a 3 1/2 point favorite. We both bet Cleveland here. You had the line of the week on Thursday where you're just like, we seem to get so locked in on these games. We talk ourselves into it. Are we going to try to talk ourselves out of it on Sunday? The line has moved from three and a half to four. There are fours in the world. It's been trending in that direction over the last 24 hours. So I feel a little bit better that the money is starting to come in on Cleveland. I don't think it's just public money, I think as professionals, but betting on the Browns.

But do we like it enough to put it in?

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah. I've dug in all week about how I just love this Browns team because it's really a bet to me on their defense. And shockingly, there are some four and a half popping up there. So like Chad said, there is not just professional money. Obviously public money is coming in here on this Browns team. And I think it's because people are seeing the weather report this morning, which is cold, freezing Side where snow and rain and just bad wins. Right now, what they're predicting for Cleveland. So it's another game where we can lean into it, trust his defense. And we talked about. They just simply got outplayed by their own special teams last week. This Browns team. Right. I think if you go back and watch it, Chad gave up the stat. Every drive felt like it started. Their own side. Their own 50 for the 49ers. Right. The 49ers kept being the Eagle. The Browns 40, the Browns 30. You know, Coach was going for on the Brown zone 30 and gave the 49ers a start on their own 30. So it's a little scary knowing that Shador Sanders is such a big favorite here, Chad. But I told you, this to me, is not him being a big number here. This is. This big number is this defense. This is purely a defensive number. And it's all about what we're confident. Right. We literally dove into this exact position. I don't know. It feels like 10 years ago, but it was probably four or five weeks ago on Miami versus Brown's team in this exact spot.

[Chad Millman]

With Dylan Gabriel.

[Simon Hunter]

Right. With Gabriel, which is no different than Sanders. My model literally has a difference of half a point between these two guys. So it's. If we believe in a Chad, we're simply betting a good number, which Hard Rock is right now, minus three and a half because this number is going to four and a half. Ford a lot of books, and we're banking on this defense. In this weather at home, it just feels like a unique spot. So I'm still in on it. I don't know if you're. If you want to join me. Like I've joked about it, I. I AM probably over 100 on this Tennessee team these last two years, but I just feel like this is a unique spot. Back on this Browns team, we have.

[Chad Millman]

No rhythm when it comes to the Tennessee Titans.

[Simon Hunter]

None.

[Sophie Cunningham]

Zero.

[Chad Millman]

We. We. We cannot catch the falling knife on this team. But. But we have a lot of rhythm with the Browns.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah.

[Chad Millman]

And so.

I've. I'm still on it. I've bet into it. I'm not walking away from it. Let's just commit to it.

[Simon Hunter]

Let's put it in on three and a half.

[Chad Millman]

Put it in.

[Simon Hunter]

Number of moves.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah. Let's own it. Cause don't forget, these lines are dynamic in this contest. So you can start betting it as soon as the lines open and. And up until kickoff. And if you decide to make changes along the way, you're going to have to make changes to everything. So it's part of the sort of gamification of this contest. Miami at the New York Jets. This was Chad's choice. It's a two and a half in the contest. Not the best number because it's been three for much of the week. I still love it. I bet the Jets. I bet the jets at 3. I bet the jets at 3 on Wednesday. I bet the jets at 3. I think again on Thursday. I bet the jets money line.

I'm all in on the jets here and maybe I'm making a mistake, maybe I'm sort of over enthusiastic, but I. I just don't see how a Jets team that was a two and a half point underdog on the road against the Dolphins in Week 4 is now still as bad as. As that jets team in week four when we've all seen the issues the Dolphins have as well. So the line hasn't changed in 10 weeks. Doesn't make any sense to me.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah. And unfortunately, this is the one of the games that won't be affected by the cold or bad weather. I think it's going to get up above 40 here in Jersey by kickoff. Sunny skies, no rain, no snow, none of that. Which is something I honestly was hoping for in this matchup. I thought it was going to play into our favor, especially if, you know, early in the week we were talking. It was supposed to be in the 20s, low 30s in this matchup, which, you know, we all know the stats too. It tends to struggle in this exact climate. But I love it. It's. It's a pros, pros game. It's truly all the. It's just pro money on the Jets.

[Chad Millman]

Yep.

[Simon Hunter]

All the other money is all public money on this Miami team. And for good reason. Right. Miami, they have as much crap as we like giving them. We thought they're deader than dead. Right. They kind of given up on the season and they've totally not turn it around. But they've at least showed up for their head coach here down the stretch right after they fired their general manager. I think they've won three of their last four. So it's a unique spot here for this Miami team that, you know, I think the public is starting to finally believe in them. Where we talked about this jets game, we were never going to be able to avoid it. We like the number. This probably should be closer to a pick. It's total overreaction to the public, to me on this Miami side. And the flip side, Taylor, we've got the stats TYROD TAYLOR Last Eight starts, 7, 0 and 1 against the spread. It's just continually undervalued against the public and we've been backing them along this whole stretch. So nothing's changed here, right? We like the number. Like you said, perfect world. Just like last week we would have loved to gotten this to a three and a half. That would have been a really safe, secure number. It's never gotten there. Like you said, the three has come down to two and a half and almost every book. So we'll take down the contest and not get scared off by this number.

[Chad Millman]

We will not be scared off because we think the jets are going to win this game outright. New Orleans at Tampa Bay the line is currently eight and a half. The Saints are eight and a half point underdog. Simon this is gonna be our rockin a hard place hard rock bet of the week.

You talked about the Saints a bunch on Thursday. It took me a minute to come around. I am on the Saints now. I bet the Saints at plus eight and a half. I bet the Saints on the money line.

[Simon Hunter]

Oh God yeah.

[Chad Millman]

Just for fun, just a little taste. Not like, listen, not like you know college tuition money, just like you know, a burrito bowl chipotle.

But I just sort of feel like the Bucks have not been playing up to the level that everyone thinks they are. And the Saints. I'm not going into the oh, the Saints are more competitive than you think, but their underlying metrics aren't as bad as you think. So I'm not uncomfortable playing the big number here in the division A game that was much more competitive than the score indicated the last time these two played.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah and I love it too because it's back in this Saints team. We're either going to be in a really close back door type of game where they do have an opportunity or.

[Chad Millman]

It'S dead in the first quarter.

[Simon Hunter]

Exactly. We will either or we'll be down 30 nothing in the first half and just getting totally blown out. So these are the gross ugly dogs I like betting gave out that stat on Tuesday again we didn't really talk much Thursday because I think like you said it wasn't much on your radar but I, I did wy love it. I look at this one where it's it's purely best based off just kind of like that jets game where the public continues to undervalue the Saints team and we've gone back now last couple years. You know this Saints team divisionally on the road as an underdog are 8 no against the spread. So they've had a run here these last three, four years where they keep getting undervalued by the general public. They go on the road in their division, which we joke all the time, the NFC south. No one knows what's going to happen. But you can't bank on taking the Dogs in a lot of these matchups. Right. And we've kind of had that proven out. So you said it best the last time they played. They got blown out, I think 3 to 23, something like that. Yeah.

[Chad Millman]

And. But it was not a 23 to 3 game. That was a. The score was 23 to 3. The circumstances that led to it being 22 to 3, 23 to 3 were not dominanced by the Bucks. It was fluky plays a lot of luck. They were only winning seven to three at half and that was because of a pick six. Like nobody was playing well in that game.

[Simon Hunter]

I was going to say total meltdown by the Saints if you go back and watch it. But we do give some grace. That was when we think Baker had an injury he didn't disclose and he was fighting through. And they had a bunch of injuries obviously to the offense. No Godwin, no Mike Evans, no Bucky Irving. So yeah, this matchup for me, it's really just backing about the public just moving this number too much and overrating this Bucks team that yes, they are going to be better now. They have a lot of their guys back. But that defense there, there ain't no guy coming off the bench that's going to save this defense. This Bucks team, they have been terrible against the run and they've really struggled this season with teams that can push the ball downfield, which, you know, as much crap we'd like to give shock. He's actually been pretty good watching the ball downfield consistently. So, you know. Yeah, we both love this number and really it's about the line plus eight and a half at every book. I can't avoid it another game. I just love on this. This dog and I'm glad we at least have one road team we're here backing.

[Chad Millman]

Warren Sapp is not walking through that door.

I put Houston plus three and a half at Kansas City on this list.

[Simon Hunter]

Wow.

[Chad Millman]

This, this. This number was four and a half at a book on Saturday afternoon. I don't know if you saw that I grabbed Houston and at four and a half it's now back down to three and a half at most places. You know, I just wanted to. To throw it in there because we're Getting the better defense in the contest. We're getting the better defense and the hook against a team that has basically played all close games this year. Whether we think the Chiefs will win a close game and there'll be some regression to the mean in a positive way or they're going to lose a close game. Getting the hook feels important to me in this contest, especially when we know the Chiefs are not going to have their starting left tackle. They might not have their starting right tackle. He was doubtful slash out on the injury list yesterday. So they're going to be playing two backup tackles for protecting Patrick Mahomes against possibly the best pass rush and definitely the best defense in the NFL Sunday night.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, but again, it's no different than Dallas Lions game, Chad. And it's something where we joke about it, but if the line just seems off and there's something fishy and it's. It's what, week 14 here. You got to trust your instincts here. So I get where you're taking a position on Houston. Everything you said is true. I just, I want people to be weary of this, this game because what Chad just said. Why is this not keep. It was moving to three. Like I got a bunch of threes. On the Chiefs, it was moving in the three, two and a half direction. Now their left and right tackle might be out and it's going up before four and a half. So be careful. I'm. I'm on the Chiefs. I guess we're just split here. Like you said, everything is very logical. You said in Houston, they have the best unit on the field. Obviously in this defense, they're just incredible. This, this actually is a pretty good match for them. But I think on the flip side, this is the exact type of game Spags gets right against this Houston offense. So to me, it's going to be the type of game that you know is going to be one in the red zone. And I think Chiefs, Mahomes, they take advantage of this Houston team in the red zone. On the flip side, I think Houston continues to struggle in the red zone. So I, I get Chad's perspective here, people, but just be careful. There's something very fishy about this number and the way it's moving where I'm on the Chiefs, but very, very leaky, confident. You can hear my voice. I just, yeah, I don't trust this Chiefs team at all. But it's just like the lines. I'm simply playing a fishy spot on a team that historically tends to bounce back in this exact spot.

[Chad Millman]

I'M only on the Texans. At four and a half. I, I'm, I'm kind of agnostic or ambivalent about it.

[Simon Hunter]

At three and a half on the Chief. Honestly, it's not scared me, but it's like, again, I just to be one of our five, it's like, man, I really wish you came in super confident. The Chiefs, I could have backed you up here, but it sucks. We're split, so I guess we'll just avoid it.

[Chad Millman]

Well, look, I think we have three games we're agreed on so far. Cleveland, the jets and the Saints. Boy, that's a. A magnificent trio. That's like the Indiana University football team of the 1970s trio right there. So now we got to make.

[Simon Hunter]

What's Atlanta in this contest?

[Chad Millman]

Atlanta is. Hold on.

[Simon Hunter]

Half.

[Chad Millman]

Now, I think Atlanta, six and a half. So this is where it gets tricky, right? Because Atlanta, which we. Which I liked a lot.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, that's a very, very sharp. A lot of sharps. I know like Atlanta, but I do not see it.

[Chad Millman]

Drake, I, I backed out of it because Drake, London's not playing and I, I'm not going to buy in to Drake, London.

Buffalo and Cincinnati. Cincinnati, six and a half.

That's interesting to me.

[Simon Hunter]

You want that six and a half.

[Chad Millman]

I like Cincinnati at six and a half.

[Simon Hunter]

All right, that could be 20 years.

[Chad Millman]

But, but the other games that we've liked all week, Baltimore, we've liked all week. It's up to six and a half in the contest.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, I wouldn't let that. I mean, again, very smart professionals have taken the six, the six and a half on Pittsburgh. So that could be my little hesitation. And I don't know if you saw. Lamar apparently got stepped on in practice and he missed a day. And he did come back, I believe on Thursday or Friday he did practice, but it's not. Again, I, I wish I could be more confident betting this Ravens team, but the historical data just shows, like Pittsburgh as a dog here, you're supposed to blindly bet it, but I just, I can't get there. It just sucks. It's a bad number, like five and a half. I'd honestly make us put this Ravens game. Game at six and a half. If we can't find anything else, I'll put it in. But it's. It's obviously not that good of a number.

[Chad Millman]

The Jags, by the way, in the contest are two and a half. So that, to me, changes the calculus a little bit.

[Simon Hunter]

Jags are two and a half in the contest.

That's crazy. Yeah, Cause Hard Rock is one and a half here, but. Yeah, I mean, I could. I could get into it. This weather, though, it does. I'm trying to keep perspective. It's like we're betting Trevor in the rain, but that's a great number.

[Chad Millman]

The other game that I want to bring up, I know we're. We're bouncing around here, but we're looking at contest lines. The Las Vegas raiders are now 8 and a half.

Against.

[Simon Hunter]

I can't do it.

[Chad Millman]

Okay, good. I'm glad.

[Simon Hunter]

I.

[Chad Millman]

Listen, you mentioned the Raiders the other day. I don't want to do it, but I wanted to respect the mention.

[Simon Hunter]

But I. I told you, I got. I got more invested in Denver's money line, so I just, I don't want to be sweating that. All right, well, I've already succumbed. I'm probably gonna lose that money. But, my God, we got some tough.

[Chad Millman]

Choices to make then. So, like, yeah, like, again, I don't.

[Simon Hunter]

Know if you're gonna like these games.

Like, we're supposed to be betting Green Bay.

Like, you know, we're supposed to be betting Green Bay, but it's a hard spot because it's like Green Bay has not covered this number at all all season. Bears have lived up expectations. I mean, they've gone far and above what we all predicted. They've been covering machine. I just don't get why this number is not budged all week. If anything, it's going to seven at a couple books.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, I saw that.

[Simon Hunter]

And it's been never ending amounts of Bears money. I went to the book on Tuesday. Both guys in front of me in the line were betting the Bears. I went to the book on Wednesday. Four different people in the line were talking about this Bears how much I love the Bears. It's never ending amount of love, I'm just saying. For the general book on this bear as well. So again, we don't have to get there. I know you don't love it because you're. You want.

[Chad Millman]

You know, I bet the Bears on the money line.

[Simon Hunter]

Listen, I told you I made that bet. The Chad bet the. The Bears money line with Indiana Hoosiers money line, but my God, this number is. It's the fishiest line of the week.

[Chad Millman]

Simon, do you see this? Do you see this? You see this? Do you know what's underneath it? By the way, do you know what's underneath it?

[Malcolm Gladwell]

Hold on.

[Simon Hunter]

Bears T shirt.

[Chad Millman]

All right.

[Simon Hunter]

Dad's showing me his nipples, people.

[Chad Millman]

So I got the Bears T shirt and the Indiana hoodie.

[Simon Hunter]

I root for.

[Chad Millman]

I root for champions, but I don't want to put put him in the contest.

[Simon Hunter]

What's our favorite, though? We need to get a favorite in here, Chad, because we last week. I think.

[Chad Millman]

I know, I know.

[Simon Hunter]

We got smoked.

[Chad Millman]

Listen, we loved the. Well, we have Cleveland in. Don't forget.

[Simon Hunter]

Right. Okay, okay.

[Chad Millman]

Look, look, I'll say something crazy here.

[Simon Hunter]

Say it.

[Chad Millman]

Okay. We love the Rams at seven and a half and we bet it at seven and a half. It's at nine and a half because there's a bunch of.

Injuries for the Cardinals. Why not the Rams? Nine and a half right now. Terrible number. But I think if they win, there's going to be a blowout.

[Simon Hunter]

All right. I can be talked into it. I'm heavily invested in the Rams. I'll do that.

[Chad Millman]

All right, so.

I will take a sec message here from Hard Rock bet. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock bet. The holidays are here and the sports schedule is packed tighter than Santa's gift bag week. 15. Football, bowl games, NBA, college hoops, hockey. The whole sports sleigh is loaded. And on Hard Rock Bet, there's always something to unwrap and bet on. New customers can sign up and bet $5 on any game. If it wins, you'll find $150 in bonus bets on top of your winning stuffed in your stocking. Now that's holiday magic. Not sure what to place your first bet on? Hard Rock Bet just launched a brand new for you page, making it easier to find all your favorite teams, players and leagues all in one place. The Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook app is the only legal sportsbook anytime you're in the beautiful state of Florida. And it's also live in Arizona, Ohio, New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois, Colorado and Michigan. Coming soon to more states, too. Plus, Hard RockBet offers new promos daily, so whenever you're listening, just open the app and check out what you've got. Any day of the week, download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit payable in bonus bets. Not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida, offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital, LLC and all other states must be 21 or over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play, terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1833 play wise in Indiana, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-809 with it gambling problem, call 1-800- gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee and Virginia.

[Malcolm Gladwell]

Get your mother loving ears on because your big time radio DJs got news. PayPal lets you choose how you want to pay for all the stuff. With PayPal I can pay in store, pay online, or pay over time. What's that? You want this translated into song? I hope you're sitting down. You can pay your own way. You keep those ears on, you hear. Don't just pay baby. PayPal.

[Jason Timf]

Learn [e-mail] hey Jason Timf here. The NBA on Prime is back with an exciting week of Emirates NBA cup action. The knockout rounds begin with quarterfinal doubleheaders on Tuesday and Wednesday night. Then it's the semifinal doubleheader on Saturday and it all culminates with the championship game next Tuesday night only on Prime. If you're not a Prime member, sign up to get a 30 day free trial to get started today. Restrictions apply. See Amazon.com amazonprime for details.

[Malcolm Gladwell]

Hello Hello, I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of the podcast smart talks with IBM. I recently sat down with IBM's chairman and CEO Arvind Krishna and I asked him how can companies use AI to its fullest potential to create smarter business? My one advice to them Pick areas you can scale. Don't pick the shiny little toys on the side. For example, if anybody has more than 10% of what they had for customer service 10 years ago, they're already five years behind. If anybody is not using AI to make their developers who write software 30% more productive today with the goal of being 70% more productive.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah.

[Malcolm Gladwell]

So we are not asking our clients to be the first experiment on it. We say you can leverage what we did. We are happy to bring out all our learnings, including what needs to change in the process. Because the biggest change is not technology is getting people to accept that there's a different way to do things. To listen to the full conversation, visit IBM.com smarttalks.

[Sophie Cunningham]

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[Chad Millman]

So the way I'm looking at it right now, Jacksonville plus two and a half Cleveland minus three and a half jets plus two and a half New Orleans plus eight and a half LA Rams minus nine and a half. Those are our five. All right, all right, well listen, listen. Chad and Simon BFFs just.

Put that into the.

Sharper Square contest page. Everyone can go sign up sharpersquare.thevolume.com youm still got a chance. You can find Shadow Simon bff. You'll see our picks. It's all there. Simon, one more thing before we get out of here. As a native of England, I know how much you love the actual original football. Please confirm that for me.

[Simon Hunter]

I love it.

[Chad Millman]

I know you do. I know when. I know when you watch your favorite English Premier League team, you only speak with an English accent. The preeminent international soccer tournament will be hosted right here in America this summer. The draw for that tournament, as I said, took place on Friday. It drew more viewers worldwide than the Super Bowl. Seriously, I don't know nearly as much as you do on the subject, but I do know a couple of things. The tournament has expanded, so nearly 50 countries are going to play 100 total matches. Because America is the host country, the U.S. men's National Team automatically qualifies, which is nice, but I hear he's got big expectations. I saw the coach the other day said he had big, big expectations. Hardrockbet Right now you can already bet on every single match in the first round. With hundreds of markets available for every single match. Plus you'll find tons of futures like group winners, top scorer, mvp. Simon, I know you Got a whole group of people, like guys who tell you when to bet Indiana. What are you hearing about early soccer bets people might want to find in the Hard Rock Bet app right now?

[Simon Hunter]

I hope maybe I can persuade you to get into it. Because it's in the summer. This is like the prime time to be betting these exact type of spots. Like it's right around NHL NBA playoffs. And this is the tournament, right? This is all the, all the different countries. And Chad just talked about the, the viewership is insane for these type of things. Just, just reading off the list of where these teams are, what groups these teams are going to play in. The better number, the Super Bowl. It's just, you can't wrap your head around it. How many people are obsessed with this exact tournament? So from the top, the very basic this is, have you been there before to the party, right? If, and just like if, if you want a Super bowl in football, it's easier for some reason to win another Super Bowl. It's the same in this tournament. If you've done it before, it's easier to do. And if you haven't, it's basically impossible. You're just, if you're not invited to the party, you're never going to do it. So it's very top heavy people off the basis. If you just want to pick a team and that's your team for the tournament, the top four, Spain, England, France, Argentina, you can just pick one of them, right? If you want to do that in your future market, that's a move to make right now. When I look at this, there's one group of death, unfortunately my favorite team is in that group of death and that is Norway. Norway, which is a team that if you don't know, they have a guy named Holland, he's the greatest striker in the world. Basically he's Mahomes of the sport based analogy. And Gettys just the best at what he does at a certain position. And in, in this sport, soccer, the whole game can change if you have an unnaturally gifted goal scorer. Because it's so hard to score in this tournament because everyone's just so tight. It's just such a big deal, these guys. So unfortunately they're in the group of death, which is group I. They have France, it's France, Norway and then Senegal, which if you know anything about Senegal, it's an African country that is filthy, filthy at soccer. They are pure Dallas Cowboys. Tons and tons of offense, no defense, and they're really fun. We're in that group. France right now is minus 180. You can get Norway plus 280 at Hard Rock. Plus 260 if you want to bet that. And them to win it all, which overall the whole, you know, cup, I think they're plus 3,000. A lot of books. It's moved now to 25 to 1. So it's Norway's come down a little bit. People have been hitting that even though they're in the group of death. If you are a very lazy American, better. We have done it, people. We are in the exact group you want to bet American. For the first time in my lifetime, this might be our best opportunity in the next 200 years to win this tournament. Just because at home for us. And they basically laid it out where we're not going to face any good teams for the first month. They've really put us in a nice spot here for the first couple of weeks. And basically USA is in group D. We are plus 120 right now at Hard Rock. I talked to a pro. That makes us minus 200 in this group. That's how bad. Again, I'm not trying to pick on usa. That's just how easy our group is. We don't have any of these big time South America or European teams. Our hardest competition right now is not even decided yet. It could be Turkey, which again that doesn't put up a lot of fear in you or Paraguay. Those are just not that good of teams. And then fishing at the bottom of the group is Australia. I think they're 8 to 1 to win this group. So to me, if you're looking for a very homer bet, I don't hate it. If you want to bet the USA to win the World cup, there is a path. I can squint my eyes and see it just because it's a new year. There's 48 teams in this, in this new tournament. The way they've laid it out and these a lot of these countries have not dealt with America humidity. So I can see the opportunity for America. If you want to bet them the long shot to win it all. I think you can still get them at 66 to 1 or 50 to 1. But to me, group play to win their group plus 120. There's good value there to win them Group D so really fired up for USA's prospects in this tournament.

[Chad Millman]

Listen, United States could be the Indiana of global soccer this year. And reminder, Hard Rock Bet is your betting home for all of this summer's global soccer action. Reminder, our picks are in chad and Simon BFFs. We're at Jacksonville plus two and a half. That's the number in the contest. We're at Cleveland minus three and a half, New York jets plus two and a half, New Orleans Saints plus eight and a half and the Los Angeles Rams minus nine and a half on the road against the battered Arizona Cardinals. This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume Podcast Network. We will be back on Sharper Square tonight 7:30ish after the late afternoon, America's game between the Bears and the packers will recap all the misery and glory of the day. We watch or listen on YouTube at sharp or Square. Like the video? Subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you get your pods rate, review, subscribe, Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.

[Simon Hunter]

This isn't college. You're not at a home college. I understand this is NFL, which stands for not for long when you make them calls.

[Chad Millman]

I'll be selling groceries.

[Malcolm Gladwell]

Get your mother lovin ears on because your big time radio DJs got news. PayPal lets you choose how you want to pay for all the stuff with paypal I can pay in store, pay online or pay overtime. What's that? You want this translated into song? I hope you're sitting down. You can pay your own way. You keep those ears off you hear. Don't just pay baby. PayPal.

[Sophie Cunningham]

Learn more at paypal.com PCs powered by Snapdragon X Elite processors are made to go the distance with blazing fast performance, next level efficiency and multi day battery life. Snapdragon processors are built to tackle it all, from highlight reel editing to intense player research so you can be at the top of your game wherever the day takes you. Learn [e-mail] laptops snapdragon the heart of your PC battery life varies significantly based on device settings, usage and other factors.

[Odoo Advertiser]

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[Ryan Seacrest]

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[Sophie Cunningham]

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[Simon Hunter]

This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.