Sharp or Square – FINAL NFL WEEK 14 BETS

Podcast: Sharp or Square
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Episode Date: December 7, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode of Sharp or Square has betting expert Chad Millman and professional sports gambler Simon Hunter breaking down their final NFL Week 14 betting card. They discuss numbers, line movement, and rationale behind their sharp and square picks with plenty of friendly banter, aiming to help listeners become sharper bettors. The episode focuses on their five favorite games for the contest using consensus lines, touches on key matchups, shares memorable betting angles, and ends with some “what to watch for” in summer soccer futures.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Reflecting on College Football's Underdog Stories ([02:51]-[05:39])

• Chad expresses emotional disbelief and joy about Indiana football’s turnaround, calling it “insanity.” Simon echoes the excitement over underdog programs rising due to strong coaches and modern changes like NIL and the transfer portal.
  • Quote: “The idea that there is a generation of people right now who are going to grow up thinking Indiana football is an exciting thing…it’s remarkable.” – Chad ([03:27])
  • Sets a lighthearted, optimistic tone for the episode.

2. Contest Instructions & Philosophy ([05:39]-[06:57])

• First week of the new pick-em contest, where everyone uses the same lines.
• Quick reminder to sign up and play along.

3. Game-By-Game Breakdown & Picks

A. Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars

• Lean: Jacksonville (-2.5 in contest)
• Discussion:
  • Weather concerns (potential storms/rain).
  • Reluctance to trust Trevor Lawrence in bad weather.
  • Colts’ injuries on the defensive line tip the scales.
  • Ultimately, want weather clarity before making it a core pick.
  • Quote: “We both have such reservations about backing Trevor Lawrence.” – Chad ([07:45])
  • Final Pick: In the five, but with hesitation.

B. Cleveland Browns (-3.5) vs Tennessee

• Pick: Browns -3.5 (Locked in)
• Rationale:
  • Betting on Cleveland’s stout defense, especially with inclement weather boosting their edge.
  • Moving lines suggest pro money on Cleveland.
  • Historical struggles reading Titans, but comfort backing Browns.
  • Quote: “I’ve dug in all week about how I just love this Browns team because it’s really a bet to me on their defense.” – Simon ([09:37])
  • Quote: “We have no rhythm when it comes to the Tennessee Titans.” – Chad ([11:24])

C. Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets (+2.5)

• Pick: Jets +2.5
• Justification:
  • Recency bias: Jets undervalued, Dolphins overvalued.
  • Pro money heavily on the Jets; public on Dolphins.
  • Tyrod Taylor’s remarkable ATS run.
  • Quote: “It’s a pros, pros game…truly all just pro money on the Jets.” – Simon ([12:58])
  • Quote: “We will not be scared off because we think the Jets are going to win this game outright.” – Chad ([14:31])

D. New Orleans Saints (+8.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Pick: Saints +8.5 (“Rock and a Hard Place, Hard Rock Bet of the Week”)
• Rationale:
  • Bucks overrated by the public, Saints metrics better than perceived.
  • Division dog angle—Saints perfect ATS divisional road underdogs last 3-4 years.
  • Quote: “The public continues to undervalue this Saints team…divisionally on the road as an underdog are 8-0 ATS.” – Simon ([15:57])
  • Quote: “Warren Sapp is not walking through that door.” – Chad ([18:05])

E. Houston Texans (+3.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs

• Debate:
  • Chad likes Houston at +4.5, but less so at +3.5; Simon leans Chiefs but with little confidence.
  • Chiefs' OL injuries, but suspicious line movement—potential trap.
  • Quote: “There’s something very fishy about this number and the way it’s moving.” – Simon ([20:49])
  • Outcome: Ultimately not one of the final five.

Other Games Considered:

• Cincinnati Bengals +6.5 vs Buffalo Bills: Chad interested, but not prioritized.
• Baltimore Ravens -6.5 vs Pittsburgh Steelers: Great historical dog spot for Steelers, but no strong conviction.
• Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears: Noted as “fishiest line of the week”—too much public Bears money, staying away.
• L.A. Rams -9.5 @ Arizona Cardinals:
  • Despite bad number, bet placed because injuries to Cards make blowout possible.
  • “If they win, there’s going to be a blowout.” – Chad ([25:42])

Final Five Contest Picks ([31:44])

• Jacksonville +2.5
• Cleveland -3.5
• NY Jets +2.5
• New Orleans +8.5
• LA Rams -9.5

4. Soccer Futures Preview (Betting the Summer Tournament) ([32:14]-[37:35])

• Simon’s soccer expertise: lays out group-stage odds for international tournament in the U.S., describes group of death (France/Norway/Senegal), and USA’s easy group with value at +120 to win it.
  • Quote: “For the first time in my lifetime, this might be our best opportunity for the U.S. in the next 200 years…” – Simon ([36:01])
• Analogizes top soccer nations to picking the Super Bowl chalk.

5. Banter, Memorable Moments & Notable Quotes

Chad showing his Bears T-shirt and Indiana hoodie:
- “Dad’s showing me his nipples, people.” – Simon ([25:09]) - Breaks up the tension and drives home the playful, irreverent chemistry between the hosts.

Timeline of Core Segments

| Timestamp | Segment/Quote | |------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 02:51 | Chad’s Indiana football disbelief and nostalgia | | 05:39 | Set up: “semi stripped down in the room eavesdropping version”/Contest rules | | 06:57 | Colts @ Jags initial lean, weather concerns | | 09:35 | Browns-Titans confidence and defense betting reasoning | | 12:26 | Jets-Dolphins breakdown/Tyrod Taylor ATS trends | | 14:31 | Public mispricing Saints/Bucs line, division road dog stats | | 18:05 | Saints historical edge; “Warren Sapp is not walking through that door.” | | 19:15 | Debate: Texans/Chiefs—suspicious line, Chiefs injuries, red flags | | 21:21 | Interim summary of agreed picks | | 23:19 | Raiders-Broncos quick dismissal, further games considered | | 24:46 | Packers/Bears line discussion; Chad jokes about rooting for “champions” | | 25:42 | Rams-Cardinals final pick rationale | | 31:44 | Finalizing and recapping the pick-em entry | | 32:14 | Global soccer summer tourney—USA value breakdown | | 36:01 | “For the first time in my lifetime, this might be our best opportunity…” – soccer betting |

Notable Quotes & Speaker Attribution

• “We both have such reservations about backing Trevor Lawrence.” – Chad (07:45)
• “We have no rhythm when it comes to the Tennessee Titans.” – Chad (11:24)
• “It’s a pros, pros game…all just pro money on the Jets.” – Simon (12:58)
• “The public continues to undervalue this Saints team…” – Simon (15:57)
• “Warren Sapp is not walking through that door.” – Chad (18:05)
• “There’s something very fishy about this number and the way it’s moving.” – Simon (20:49)
• “Dad’s showing me his nipples, people.” – Simon (25:09)
• Soccer: “For the first time in my lifetime, this might be our best opportunity in the next 200 years to win this tournament.” – Simon (36:01)

Final Thoughts

This week’s Sharp or Square brings camaraderie, sharp betting logic, and some healthy risk-taking. The hosts break down their picks with data, psychology, and humility, owning their struggles and sharing their favorites with the audience. Listeners come away with not just picks, but a masterclass in contest strategy, line shopping, and “don’t bet just to bet” sensibility.

Final Five Picks for the Contest:

• Jacksonville +2.5
• Cleveland -3.5
• NY Jets +2.5
• New Orleans +8.5
• LA Rams -9.5

Listen for:

• Why sharp money often goes against clear public favorites
• How weather and injuries impact “trust” in QBs and lines
• Which lines are “fishy” and why that matters for mid-season NFL betting
• Soccer futures value with pragmatic advice for Americans

For more, join Chad and Simon on the Sharper Square contest page and catch their recap show after the late Sunday games.