FINAL NFL Week 2 bets: Bills-Jets, Giants-Cowboys, Eagles-Chiefs, Rams-Titans & more

Summary

Sharp or Square — FINAL NFL Week 2 Bets (Sept 14, 2025)

Hosts: Chad Millman (CM) & Simon Hunter (SH)
Podcast: Sharp or Square by iHeartPodcasts/The Volume
Episode Purpose:
Chad and Simon go through their final NFL Week 2 betting card—the five games they submit to their high-stakes contest—debating which sides are sharp or square, walking listeners through their thought process, confidence, and number discipline.

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Episode Overview & Main Theme

The main focus is Chad and Simon’s real-time, candid decision process as they assemble their five official NFL Week 2 contest picks against the spread. This is the “eavesdropping” version of their usual behind-the-scenes call, emphasizing their analytic approach, game-by-game reviews, market moves, injury updates, sharp vs public perceptions, and contest number value.

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Key Games Discussed & Insights

1. Rams at Tennessee Titans (+5.5)

Timestamps: [03:42]–[07:57]

• Simon’s Breakdown:
  • Key thematic bet—both hosts are comfortable with the number. Cam Ward (rookie QB) is a concern, but Titans’ defense, especially Jeffrey Simmons, should be a difference-maker against a depleted Rams O-line.
  • Simon cautions about betting flat numbers but maintains “we’re rolling the dice” because the public is still too high on the Rams and down on Tennessee.
• Key Quote:
  • “Scary spot taking the rookie here, but I love this Tennessee team. I think they’re still being overvalued.” — Simon Hunter [05:29]
• Chad’s Take:
  • Five is a “dead number,” but he’s “totally good with it” at +5.5 and becoming more bullish as they talk.
  • On contest line discipline: “Five is kind of a dead number. There's a big difference going from five, five and a half, six, six and a half.” [06:41]
• Memorable: Simon admits surviving a wedding on no sleep, still thinking about football. ([06:54]–[07:23])

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2. Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (+6.5)

Timestamps: [07:57]–[12:20]

• Chad’s Angle:
  • Waiting to bet, hoping for +7 but takes +6.5 after seeing line moves.
  • Loves the Jets’ offense, thinks Bills’ defense is in trouble, especially the secondary. Cites “emotional letdown” factor for Buffalo.
• Simon’s Analysis:
  • Calls Jets their “sharpest pick.”
  • Sees Jets O as a “Ravens lite” with Justin Fields and Bruce Hall combo using zone read.
  • Noting sharp money at public books as line’s moving down—public teasers all on Buffalo.
  • “The professional side is going to be this Jet side... all the teasers, all of it, it’s all going to be Bill's money.” [10:44]
  • Emphasizes contest value: “We need every point here against Josh Allen.” [11:27]
• Notable Moment: Chad, mid-recording, hurriedly bets +6.5 as lines shift. “If people are watching and saw me squinting and looking away, it’s only because I decided to [bet].” [12:01]

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3. New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-5.5)

Timestamps: [12:24]–[18:29]

• Chad’s Reasoning:
  • Sticking with Dallas at home. Giants’ Andrew Thomas likely out, so offensive line shakes confidence. Dak is much safer than Giants’ QB situation.
  • Emphasizes quarterback mismatch: “I’m going to bet on Dak at home in a dead number that is lower than six.” [13:26]
• Simon’s Response:
  • Shares hesitance as both “pros and public” love Dallas, but “can’t believe this is under six.”
  • Points to CD Lamb’s revenge motivation and competitiveness as a difference-maker.
  • Acknowledges “scary” that some pros keep taking Giants after +6 shows up.
  • “This is a true high-level competitor. So CD Pickens, I don’t see how the secondary of that Giants team stops that one-two.” [15:20]
• General Concern:
  • Both hosts are aware of the risk in “favorite” spots this week and wrestling with “what are we missing?”
  • “It’s week two. Weird things are going to happen. But I don't know. It just feels like it’s a bad number from the books and we’re getting a good number here.” — Simon [16:25]

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4. Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) at Kansas City Chiefs

Timestamps: [18:29]–[23:35]

• Line Movement & Conviction:
  • Chad assures Simon convinced him to stick with Eagles; slight money coming in on KC but contest line is still -1.5.
  • Wrestling with the discomfort of betting against Mahomes as a dog at home, but figures it’s the right side.
• Simon’s Inner Turmoil:
  • “I rather lose this bet here on Hurts in this spot, than lose it on... Daniel Jones.” [19:29]
  • Breaks down why past trends (KC never 0-2 with Mahomes/Reid) don’t apply to this version of the Chiefs (travel fatigue, injuries, aging roster).
  • “They’re being priced like this is a November game... I make the line two and a half. It’s one. Crazy good value on this Eagles side.” [22:01]
  • Admits: “This is our squares bet of the week for sure.” [23:18]
  • Reflects on the agony of being so heavily invested against Mahomes: “All you can think of is Mahomes Magic. There’s no other reason to take the Chiefs team.” [24:38]

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5. Finalizing the Fifth Play & Other Notables

Timestamps: [29:21]–[39:58]

Key Candidates Discussed:

• Seattle/Pittsburgh: Pulled due to line movement and injury uncertainty. Won’t enter a bad number.
  • “No need to put it in at a bad number.” — Simon [30:45]
• Denver at Indianapolis:
  • Settles on Colts +2.5 as the fifth pick. Good number, decent matchup concerns, but comfortable overall.
  • Chad: “I think we do the Colts.” [39:28]
• Saints, Bengals/Jags, Patriots, Atlanta: All discussed and debated, but ultimately too much hesitation or bad numbers.

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Final Five Picks (Contest Submissions)

Timestamps: [39:58]–[41:11], [41:15]–[41:40]

1. Tennessee Titans +5.5
2. New York Jets +6.5
3. Dallas Cowboys -5.5
4. Philadelphia Eagles -1.5
5. Indianapolis Colts +2.5

“Alright, that’s the final five.” — Chad Millman [40:10]

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• On market discipline:

  “Five is a dead number. I feel totally good about it. I actually am feeling more confident about it in my head than the way you sound about it.”
  — Chad [06:44]

• On “public vs sharp” tension:

  “The sharp number for the Titans, though, is the six.” — Simon [12:20]

• On betting against Mahomes:

  “I woke up, like, had a horrible dream and I was just like, oh my god, Mahomes dog at home. What am I doing?... I have so much money on it. I just can’t believe that this number has not budged.” — Simon [23:40]

• On contest strategy:

  “This is an opportunity where we are comfortable with the good quarterback against the bad quarterback at home. To me, that’s the end. That’s the ball game.” — Chad [16:30]

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Timestamps for Other Segments

• Survivor Pick Discussion:

  • Cowboys ultimately chosen over Cardinals and Ravens.
    [40:22]–[41:11]

• Injury News & Contest Value:

  • Several games, like Dallas/Giants and Saints/49ers, see betting decisions hinge on late-breaking injury reports.
    [13:41]–[14:10] (Andrew Thomas), [33:46]–[35:57] (Saints/49ers discussion)

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Episode Tone & Style

Conversational, self-deprecating, sometimes anxious, but always evidence and number-driven. The hosts allow themselves to feel nervous, admit market confusion, and repeatedly stress the importance of contest value, number-shopping, and not overreacting to Week 1. They banter about real-life distractions, contest stress, and openly share their process warts and all.

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Summary Table: Final Five Plays

| Matchup | Pick | Contest Line | |-----------------------------|-------------------------|--------------| | Rams at Titans | Titans | +5.5 | | Bills at Jets | Jets | +6.5 | | Giants at Cowboys | Cowboys | -5.5 | | Eagles at Chiefs | Eagles | -1.5 | | Broncos at Colts | Colts | +2.5 |

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For Listeners Who Missed the Episode:

• You’ll get a transparent look into how two betting professionals narrow down their picks, wrestle with market psychology, and obsess over every half point.
• The episode offers key context behind why they like or avoid certain sides and how contest betting differs from typical “market betting.”
• Chad and Simon are particularly candid about their discomfort betting “square” favorites and share actionable info about market moves and injury impact.
• The picks are distilled into a final, consensus “five” with contest-specific logic, not just general recommendations.

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End of Summary

Transcript

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[Chad Millman]

Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock Bet. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I Am Chad Millman. I am joined by my co host, my bff, my companion, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter. Hello Simon.

[Simon Hunter]

Chad. Good morning. Happy week two, brother.

[Chad Millman]

Week two, my man. This is the stripped down in the room eavesdropping version of Sharper Square. We will be doing this Sunday mornings during the season. Most listeners know Simon and I have entered against the spread pick em contests every season. We have done the show together, five games against the spread every week. You and I always have a 10 to 15 minute conversation that nobody ever got to hear to review our final picks, make sure we didn't include games where injuries had been reported or we were on the wrong side of mass and line massive line moves. This is that conversation. Sometimes it's easy. I feel like today is going to be pretty easy. Sometimes it's hard. We're going to have to figure it out together. You ready to roll, Simon?

[Simon Hunter]

Ready to roll, brother.

[Chad Millman]

All right, so listen, these are the games we had zeroed in on the other day. Rams at Tennessee contest. Line is five and a half. It's still five and a half. This was our brass balls bet again. We thought the Rams would be down two O linemen. They are only down one left guard, Steve Avila. Look, I batted a five and a half. I still like it at this number. No reason for me to walk away. What about you?

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, and people are gonna see a theme here. There's bets we've made we like. My fear with these bets that we made is that they're just kind of flat numbers, right? We're betting a five and a half. We'd obviously prefer the six and a half. We're kind of. Again, we're betting into a number that's a good number, but it's not. It's not great. No, it really isn't because it's the Rams. We know we're betting against Stafford, who. Yeah, you didn't look great last week, but this is week two. Like we. This really is. It's just so early that you can't. You try not to take too much away from week one. Right, Chad? So looking at this, this game, I think my feeling is probably the same as yours is that this Tennessee team just is not as bad as people think they are. And you know, we're rolling the dice here on Cam Ward because I like, I think we both agree we thought he looked better than the game played out against the Broncos. And this Rams team should not be as good, especially in the secondary as that Broncos team. But we know betting on A rookie in this spot against McVay and Stafford, you could get rolled. So to me, people out there, if you're fighting this one, I get it. But when I stand on this one, it's just. I got it at four. It's five and a half. I love Cam Ward. I love this matchup for this Tennessee's defense. And you know, like you said, we wish both guys were out obviously betting this Tennessee tie with Jeffrey Simmons, but I don't think it matters. I think he's that dominant. And we have so many questions about that offensive line. And you saw with Houston, that Houston much better pass attack, I'll agree, than this Tennessee team, but they didn't have any. Houston didn't have anyone in the middle like Jeffrey Simmons. And I think that's something people are going to see. That's to be a big weakness for this Rams team. So, yeah, scary, scary spot taking the rookie here, but I love this Tennessee team. I think they're still being overvalued. I'm sure we'll be on the other side of them, but as we stand here in week two, it's still all public money right now on this Ram side. So feeling pretty good about this Tennessee. And just the. The number. We're. We're taking a five and a half. If you can find the six, obviously people get the six.

[Chad Millman]

I. I feel we're gonna. We're gonna talk about games where there's sort of a five and a half versus a six and a half. And look, I feel comfortable at the five and a half. Five is kind of a dead number. There's a big difference. Going from five, five and a half. Six. Six and a half.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah. Like you just said, it's dead numbers.

[Chad Millman]

It's a dead number. So five and a half. I feel totally good about it. I actually am feeling more confident about it in my head than I think, the way you sound about it.

[Simon Hunter]

So just peek behind the curtains. Chad, I did say to you I went to a wedding yesterday and I've been literally working through the night. So if it's sounds like. If it sounds like I've been awake for 36 hours and I went to a wedding in between, that it's true. That is factual.

[Chad Millman]

I'm not gonna lie to you. You don't sound great. You don't sound like you had a rested evening and you are ready to sit down.

[Simon Hunter]

I know. I wish I could say it was fun, but I couldn't even enjoy the wedding because all I was doing in my mind was Just thinking football. It was, it was. Honestly, I got a problem.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, that's the way some people would say, you got a great life.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, I do. I tell people I do for six months out of the year. But the other six months, it's just all I'm doing. Honestly, it's like even though we had a good week last week, I was already on the week two in my mind about 4 o' clock midway through Sunday last week. So it's. I'm excited for this week. I mean, I love these lines, but I'm already like, man, week two, you just hear so much noise. Again, we're getting read. We're diving these games here. It's. It's just crazy, the feedback I'm getting from our show because just our show's gotten so big now. I'm just hearing so much noise. It's. It's crazy.

[Chad Millman]

Black out the noise. Let's focus on us. That's true, right? That it's like any healthy relationship, Simon, focus on you and me. And right now you and I are going to talk about the Bills at the Jets. The Jets. Six and a half. Okay. It has been stuck on six and a half. I have, I have not bet this yet. I am going to, but I'm kind of hoping it'll get to seven. I don't think it's going to get there, but that's sort of why I've been hanging on. We still like it at six and a half. It will be one of our final five. I've been liking it more and more as the week is going on. I've really been thinking about the jets are not interested in moral victories. I love the way they played last week. The more I and I have rewatched that game. I love their offense. I feel like they had an incredible game and they should have won that game and they were on the wrong side of luck in that game. And the Bills just had such an emotional win. A late night game now going on the road. They're not going to have that same emotional lift. And their defense is in real trouble, especially in the defensive backfield. No fear, no fear on the jets at six and a half.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah. And for our show, you know, the sharper square side, this is definitely our sharpest pick most likely. Where it's sure gonna be a little public here, right? Because there's always going to be those fans of Justin Fields and saw what he did last week and they're just going to blindly bet the jets here. But I think they're Kind of partially getting the picture of it, which is my view of it coming into the season where I know it sounded crazy talking about in August, but this is the Ravens light, this jets offense, right? You have a mobile quarterback that can push the ball down the field and, you know, say what you want about Bruce hall, he's a talented running back. So they're not going to obviously put up the type of numbers or Ravens do, but we're not looking for that. We're looking for a team that can do an outside zone read option. That's, that's all the Ravens simply did against that Bills team. And it was, you know, felt like they batted a thousand. It was perfect. It could not be stopped. I mean, the one on one. You saw the gaping holes now. Yeah. Jets offensive line step down from the Ravens. Their running back is a step down from the Ravens. The quarterback is a step down. We're not looking for 41, 40 points here. Right. We're looking for Fields can get us up to that 24 to 30 points, keep us in range because Josh Allen's going to get his. We know, we know we're bending two year, Chad. We're, we've been into the Raven, I mean the Bills last week. So, you know, it's a good number. There's a, there's a really public book out there that's already moved to five and a half. So if they're a five and a half, I'm assuming these other very public books move that way. I know Hard Rock, you know, they're at five and a half now as well. And here in Jersey, they've been bouncing between the six and a half and the six this morning. Hard Rock went to five and a half. That's a big deal. So, you know, the, the professional side is going to be this Jet side. And we talked about all the teasers, all of it. It's all going to be Bill's money. So I'm, I like, like you. I feel confident in our spot. I'm just so happy we have the six and a half because we need every point here against Josh Allen. So good, good number, good spot. Underrated jets team. That's in my mind we're praying they pull off the upset. And it's a nice, nice fade next week on this jets team because they're, you know, a, a 60 yard field goal away from being 10 from last week and in a spot that the potential could be 2 0. And it's like, I think the general public still sleeping on this team. And yeah, once again, we're banking on fields as a, as a dog higher than three, which is usually a good spot to back them. So six and a half. We'll take that every time in the contest.

[Chad Millman]

By the way, while you were talking, I started to get nervous that this line was moving in the opposite direction.

[Simon Hunter]

So.

[Chad Millman]

So I bet the six and a half. If people are watching and they saw me squinting and looking away, it's only because I decided to.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, we're not gonna get that seven.

[Chad Millman]

I'm not gonna get.

[Simon Hunter]

I just never thought I was gonna get back there.

[Chad Millman]

I got the. I took the six and a half. I tried to be as patient as I could. All right, Titans and Jets, pretty sharp plays so far. We're on the sharp side in both of those games. Five and a half and six and a half.

[Simon Hunter]

I definitely say the sharp. The sharp number for the Titans, though, is the six.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah. But the sharp side is still going to be the Titans regardless. New York Giants at Dallas. Dallas at five and a half, pretty much settling there. We know we got a little bit of grief from wise guys that we were on the square side on Thursday. I'm seeing everything. Everyone is saying Russell Wilson will be better against this Cowboys secondary than he was against the commander secondary. Duron Bland is out for the Cowboys. I'm just looking purely at a quarterback. Quarterback situation. I'm going to bet on Dak at home in a dead number that is lower than 6. Andrew Thomas out for the Giants. This team has not been able to figure out how to protect quarterbacks or how to run the ball. And when Andrew Thomas has been out the past two seasons. Wanda Robinson limited in practice, questionable for the game. If he does play, he will be hobbled. He had more receptions last week than Malik Neighbors. So I don't love the roster that the Giants are putting on the field and I do love what the Cowboys can do at home with a much better quarterback. So I'm still on the Cowboys.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, I'm trying to find the Andrew Thomas news because that to me I'm right there with you. That's a huge deal.

[Chad Millman]

He'd been doubtful all week.

[Simon Hunter]

The the expectations practice all week either.

[Chad Millman]

Like the expectations are that he will not play.

[Simon Hunter]

I agree with you. I was just hoping if I'd hope. I was hoping Chef D would do is like 3am tweet of he was out but never came. I'm not even allowed to. I sat there at one point for like 30 minutes just dead staring into social media because I was just like tweet it's got to be out.

[Chad Millman]

I, I like you have been checking this nonstop. Like I really, I, I want it to be true because I think it's key to the bet and we're look that's what we're doing. We're anticipating, we're prognosticating, we're all that.

[Simon Hunter]

I just need it because this is such a spot we never take. This is a gift. I can't believe this is under six. It's been getting pounded all week by the public and professionals alike and we talked about the, the pros came in on the giant side every time it touches six. So scary. Scary, scary, scary. But I'm just going to keep believing and they just overvaluing a Giants team and why wouldn't the public be on this Cowboys team? Right? They look good in a prime time game which I mean you Talked about that CD drops. How does CD not come out here with 150 yards? I saw Cowherd took his prop. I know it's super chalky but I love the play because it's like this man. I saw the night they got back from that Eagles game. He apparently went to the facility and just used the jug machine which yeah you could say oh that's a look at me thing. This dude's got the money. He's not out there for look at me. This is, this is more than that. This is a true high level competitor. So CD Pickens, I don't see how the secondary of that Giants team stops that that one two. Obviously the running game will struggle for the Cowboys. It's not going to be like the Eagles without Jalen Carter. That to me will be the difference maybe the game and that's maybe where the Giants can attack it. But like you just said, we both think Russ looked absolutely finished against the Washington defense that you saw. The middle of the field for Washington against the Green Bay was wide open. They have a 36 year old linebacker and Bobby Wagner trying to cover 24, 25 year old tight ends like Washington's has their own issues. The Giants did not expose a single one of them. So yeah, I'm, I think we're on the same page. It's. I'm confident, I know I'm beating these words when they win this game by three and it's like how did that just happen? It's week two. It's, it's weird things are going to happen but I don't know, it just feels like it's a bad number from the books and we're getting a good number here. So.

[Chad Millman]

Dude, listen. We always know that one of our blind spots is not playing favorites in our final five. And I think that this is an opportunity where we are comfortable with the good quarterback against the bad quarterback at home. To me, that's the end. That's. That's the ball game. And honestly, I think there are harder decisions. For example, I know I'm just scared.

[Simon Hunter]

Because we have two of these this week and it's week two. It's like week two. We know week two is such like an overreaction in week one, and I feel like we're not overreacting. But yeah, I, I don't get this line. That's what's freaking me out. Chad who. What pros are putting big money on this? I know they're out there. I've talked to them. And it's like, I can't believe you just love putting your heavy. Your biggest bet of the weekend is on Russell Wilson and this Giants team. Back to back weeks.

[Chad Millman]

Tell me this doesn't feel like the Panthers last year where they have bought in on something they think they are seeing with the Giants and it might be six, seven, eight weeks before everything they thought they saw for the Giants. I think it's really about this defensive line coming to fruition because the quarterback play is so bad and that is undoing everything.

[Simon Hunter]

But it's like this D line against a young guy maybe makes sense, but it's like you went, we saw last week, but now you're getting Dak. Like, Dak is just like we talked before the season. He's just an underrated guy. And I think that was the biggest wake up call the public and most people watching that Eagles game, it's like, oh, yeah, this is, this is a healthy Dak with confidence, putting the pushing the ball downfield because it's a dying art. These guys just do not push the ball 15, 20 yards down the field anymore. And Dak's still in that mode of pushing the ball, taking higher risk. And yeah, I think we're, we're in the same page here. I just. The Russell Wilson, this is Jackson dart. I honestly would look at this differently, but yeah, there's. It feels like there's nothing less than Russ and he might be making us eat those words as we, we meet it later up tonight.

[Chad Millman]

All right, we're feeling good about Titans. We're feeling good about Jets. We're feeling good Ish about Cowboys. You said we have two of these. Philadelphia minus one and a Half at Kansas City. Some money starting to come in on Kansas City this morning. We're starting to see this line move back in that direction. If we, if one and a half is the prevailing line that people can get. How are we feeling about this right now? Because I'll be honest, On Thursday you 100% convinced me that the Eagles were the right side. You were on a roll. I don't think anything has changed my mind since then. But are we courageous enough to make this one of our final five when the money might be moving against us now? And we know how scary it is to bet a game when the line is flipped from plus one to minus one?

[Simon Hunter]

It is. But like in my mind a lot of stuff. This year with our contest, I've come to realization, especially after last week, I rather lose this bet here on Herz in this spot, then lose it on, I don't know, Drake May or yeah, you know, Daniel Jones because we'll, you know, I like those spots, I like those numbers. But here we're getting a good number on a good team. You know, Hertz, we've all seen the stats, right? I think he's at 15 straight wins in games. He's finished for the Eagles. So, you know, incredible run. On the flip side, this could be the low of lows, right? I mean the amount of pros I've heard for from this week and I've heard what they're saying, I get their position. Anyone can see their position coming from a mile away, right? Oh my God, it's Mahomes. You think mom's is going over too? Like it's never ending. Amount of.

[Chad Millman]

Who is that guy? Is he, is he a 65 year old dude from South Jersey with a fedora and a cigar?

[Simon Hunter]

That's where I'm at. I'm an AC baby. It's. It's never ending. Like it's, it's so much throwing stuff from the past into your face. I get where they're coming from because I do take into account what happens in the past. I've seen how big of a deal it is. But what does it have to do anything with this season that the Chiefs have never been owing to since 2014 or in the Mahomes era, in the Andy Reid era. They've never been over two. Have they ever had a brutal start where they went to Brazil and then played the defending home, defending champion at home the following week and did they lose their 1 and 2 receiver that they desperately needed? And it's just.

[Chad Millman]

And are they all Getting are other than Mahomes are their best players closer to mid-30s than early-30s, right. Or 20s.

[Simon Hunter]

And it's football. Like the football it. Nothing lasts forever in the sport. I mean that Belichick Brady era, the greatness, Randy Moss, Gronk, all these amazing pieces. Randy never got a ring with those teams. Like there's just. There's windows for these different organizations. And I'm not saying this is the window close on this team, but this team is going to be so different November than they are right now with this Chiefs team. And they're being priced in this game like this is a November game. So I make the line two and a half. It's one crazy good value on this Eagle side and I, I get the professional side right. This is, you know every talking it on tv. Every Joe Public will be on the Eagles. And this is why we talked about like this cowboy side, this Eagle side. I don't feel great about it, but it's also something I'm trying to attack that me and Chad had a weakness with last year where we just were scared off of public favorites like this. And you know, it's week two, I could easily eat this. But you're gonna see this season I'm going to take stands on this type of spots. And you know, this Chiefs team, it's. It's. It's a team that's really gotten mean Chad in these exact spots every time we've gone against them. But it's just not the same Chiefs team from those past. It's just the defense too. And I broke down their defense with Spags. He is calling the same defense he always calls. The pieces are just so new and different. They look lost, they look slow. They're not just playing the play on the field. They're thinking and trying to react to what they're thinking. You're done in Spags defense, you're too slow. So yeah, we'll see. Like this is the type of game where I think it's going to be in the 90s, maybe some rain. You know, I don't. Nothing favors this Chief's team like it's. If it was 30 degrees and snowing, I could see it working from an arrowhead. But it's September, they're banged up, Eagles are healthy. You know, it's just. It just lines up. It's a good spot for this team. And yeah, pros versus Joe's. I'll ride with the public in this exact spot. This is our squares bet of the week for sure.

[Chad Millman]

You sound like you are in agony right now talking about this like the.

[Simon Hunter]

The because that's so much money, Chad. It's scary. Like I woke like when I woke up, whatever it was Friday morning. I like I literally like had like a horrible, must had a horrible dream and I was just like oh my God like momes dog at home. What am I doing? But I, I've been settling back into it. I'm just, I, I, I have so much money on it. I just can't believe that this number has not budged. Like you said, it's sitting at one and a half all week. Like we did our Sunday night show talked about the Eagles as a dog. They flip to a favorite come Monday morning. It's been stuck. Yeah all week. So game of the week. I can't believe it's not the Sunday night game. I'm so happy so I can finally sleep after our show on Sunday. But yeah, this is, this is a great number. And we'll see my home. All you can think of is Mahomes Magic. There's no other reason to take the Chiefs team. Like we could get laid word that Worthy's gonna play. But seriously that's, that's such a stretch when you think about the injuries coming off of and yeah, Andy Reid said most it's not likely that he plays but they're still obviously leaving the door open that he could so you know this number could go down but I think if he once he gets said that he's out this could easily go up to two. So I'm going to take it now. Now that's at one and a half for the Seagull side.

[Chad Millman]

We are crazy excited to announce our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock bet. I don't know if you know this. I've got a very long history of staying at Hard Rock hotels and casinos, including one football season practically living there. Literally. They've always been to me the best combination of vibe and fun. Now you can use the top rated Hard Rock BET sportsbook to place your bets all NFL season and beyond. Hard Rock BET is the only legal sports book in the state of Florida and it's also available in Arizona, Ohio, New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois and Colorado, with more states launching all the time. You can also play on Hard Rock Bats online casino if you were in New Jersey, Simon, I know you want to check that out. From here on out, you'll start to see us use Hard Rock BET lines when we're talking about the games. And everyone knows Simon and I, we have loved getting out and doing live shows now we can actually do them from Hard Rock property. Simon do we see a sharp or square live show from AC just down the road from you in our future as we gear up for NFL season? Sign up for Hard Rock bet. Make a $5 bet. You'll get $150 in bonus points bets. If you win, head over to Hard Rock Bet, sign up and make your first deposit today. These are payable in bonus bets, not a cash offer. Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida. Offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states. Must be 21 and over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois or Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia to play. Terms and conditions apply.

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[Colin Cowherd]

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[Chad Millman]

Florida call 1-888- admit it in Indiana. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1809 with it. Gambling problem. Call 1-800-GAMBLER in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. I'm taking Seattle and Pittsburgh, which we loved all week, off the board because that number has moved to two and a half in a lot of places. And there's even though Joey Porter is going to be out for the Steelers, Devin Witherspoon is going to be out for, maybe out for the Seahawks. So I have some injury concerns in that game as well as a concern about the number. Do you feel strongly in opposing me in removing this from our list?

[Simon Hunter]

No, it's a bad number. It's two and a half in our contest. There are books out there right now sitting on three and a half for the Seahawks, so just go grab it. It's like we said, it's, it's a, it's a Tomlin spot to motivate his defense. This total is a 40. I mean it's, it's been coming down and Chad just said the, the Pittsburgh's defense is banged up, but I don't know the books. You're thinking Tom is going to motivate the guys. Or maybe it says more about the Seahawks defense and I mean offense and defense. But yeah, three and a half with a total of 40. When we have a really good defense in the Seahawks side, we, we'll see. It's, it's obviously we, we're banking a lot on Sam Darnold, but it's, it's really about the running scheme and that's where you think you could attack the Spitsburg team. So yeah, no need to put it in at a bad number. But three and a half people, if you want to be on the same side as me, I'm, I'm taking that three and a half right now.

[Chad Millman]

I have thoughts on Dallas, on Denver at Indy. That feels like the final game potentially to me. We can get it at two And a half. It's gone up since we talked about it on Thursday when you loved it at 2. Do you have any other games other than that that you feel strongly about? That should be our fifth.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, I mean, we can break down the indie game. It's, you know, a unique spot in the sense that the Broncos were the all hype team coming into this. And I thought the Colts would be caught copping a lot more love from the general public. And they're not. Right. Everyone's kind of to themselves. Well, maybe Miami is just that bad. And I don't overreact to that Denver team where my view of it coming to the season is the same thing after two weeks or I guess a week now is the second year. Quarterbacks after the first year and all the tape these defenses have to study. You've seen a play out now in a couple games. I mean, the biggest one was that Green Bay game. You saw a converted effort to heavily, heavily pressure Daniels's right side. Right like that. If you could get him to move to his left to throw across his body, it was pretty clear he had a glaring weakness there. And I know it sounds stupid like how they not figure that out last year, but they're just little things like that, little details that some team figures out and focuses on and other teams don't notice it or exploit it the year before. But the offense, they do. And watching that Denver game, there's a lot of ways Tennessee can make him really uncomfortable. And I, I, I like the, the idea of, you know, we're getting a good number. And that's where I agree with you that if, if this would be our last one and again, it's not a final one like yet. I have it in there at two and a half. I'm with you, Chad. I'll take it. But my fear and my doubt here is just are we overvaluing this Colts team after one week? And we both agree they are good and there are some things we really like about them. But I believe they're number one and number three are corners are out of this game. That's a big deal. Colts, I'm missing two guys are their secondary. So there's a couple games here we'll talk about, but that's the biggest pause for me on that one.

[Chad Millman]

All right, what am I missing?

[Simon Hunter]

Where are we at with this Saints number?

[Chad Millman]

I knew you were going to bring that up.

[Simon Hunter]

It's four and a half in our contest. Three live. Trent might not play. He's working out before the game. I mean, we talk all the time, like, if you don't have him, that 49ers offense is not the same. He is just the ultimate game changer. Between the run scheme, everything. He just does everything so well. My fear here is it's Shanahan with a backup, and for some reason, you dive into the numbers. He does really well with backup quarterbacks. So.

[Chad Millman]

How many times have we said this? I don't think there's anybody who enjoys coaching when his team is injured and he's got to play backups more than Shanahan. I think he loves the challenge. I think his teams outperform. I think other teams think they're going to have an advantage. And he can scheme like nobody else in the NFL. So I know there's a big discrepancy in the numbers, but I'm really ready to put one of our precious five on the Saints.

[Simon Hunter]

That's why it's like, I'm not forcing it. And I just. That one jumped out to me right away where it's like, it's four and a half. They might be down their best.

[Chad Millman]

I'm with you on indie. Like, I have not bet the indie game. You've been talking about it all week. I have not been able to get myself there because I think there was some fluky stuff in that first game. They had the perfect team. Perfect matchup, perfect game. Denver's defense is much better than Miami's, obviously, but I'd be more comfortable with Indy than I would be with New Orleans, to be honest.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah. I just. I can't get over how good Purdy is, especially to that team.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah.

[Simon Hunter]

And, you know, the past, the past record we're talking about with Shanahan and this team, I think it's fair to say they've been better in the past than they are right now in many aspects. I mean, they just, like we say all the time, you pay your superstars, the rest of the team is going to suffer. So, you know, they paid these superstars. Okay. Ayuk. Not playing. Purdy. Not playing.

[Chad Millman]

Kittle. Not playing.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah. Kiddo. Not playing. No trend. That's about what, 100 million right there. Not playing for your offense. Whatever it is, it's. It's a big deal and we're going to see that. So I think both our hesitation is just the fact that. Right. Shanahan with the backup. But it's also, like you said, the thought of having this Saints team, and we were down 14, and I need Spencer Rattler to somehow get me back from a 14 old hole. It's just. It's dead. It's not happening. So I get it. We can keep it moving.

[Chad Millman]

So who's left? Like, the only other team that I've been itching to bet all week is Cincinnati, and I've just been wanting that number to get to three. It's going to be three and a half. So do you have any thoughts on that? If not, which is our fifth?

[Simon Hunter]

Oh, Jags.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, I like them, but it's another spot that it feels a lot like Tennessee. Where it feels like it. We know it feels like we have to bet. We know we have to bet it. And that's what scares me a little bit about. It's like, why wouldn't we bet the three and a half? Right? So, yeah, it's. I'm glad it moved down to three, I'll tell you that much. Because it's like, okay, at least the professionals are still hitting it, because it's. It's hard. What we do is hard. Where the five and a half, the four and a half, which all the pros took on Sunday, that made sense. Them not touching a three and a half all week just gave me pause. Where it's like, oh, man, did we miss the best of the number. And we're betting a dead number here where, you know, everyone. I thought everyone would be on the Jags. That Bengals offense was so terrible against the Browns. I. I'm so hesitant to back this Jags here because it feels like we got away with murder last week with this Jags team. Yeah, we got a no sweat bet on the Jags. I mean, that, to me, would be the first time we've ever had that.

[Chad Millman]

Never had that. Yeah.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah.

[Chad Millman]

Didn't even think about it.

[Simon Hunter]

So we're definitely, like I always say, roulette wheel. There's been seven straight blacks. We're hitting black again if we take the Jags here. But I can be talked into it because I bet it like, I'm on the three and a half. I'm on the four. I just can't get over. Oh, listen, running looked for.

[Chad Millman]

I don't want to. I don't want to bet the jacks here. I would rather bet the Bengals.

[Simon Hunter]

Oh, you do? At three.

[Chad Millman]

I've just been waiting for it to get to three. So for the contest, it's just a question of, are we betting the Bengals at three and a half?

[Simon Hunter]

Oh, no chance. Yeah. Opposite sides.

[Chad Millman]

So who's our fifth? We have the Titans, we have the jets, we have the Cowboys. We have Philly all at basically the existing numbers of today. Who's our fifth.

[Simon Hunter]

So I feel like I'm not going to get you there. Patriots. I get it. I just, I know all the underlying numbers that just. It's variable against Miami. He's done so well in this exact spot. And you know the bounce back betting on Dolphins because the Dolphins historically have owned the Patriots, especially at home. And you know, the whole thing was the dark jerseys with the sun and the shade and. Yeah, yeah, I get it. But it's like VRA's our guy. Like eventually we got a back rabel and there's spots like this that variable has been very profitable to us in this exact spot. But again, I'm not going to force this one in because it's like not the best number in our contest. It's one and a half. You can get two and a half right now on the Patriots. That's. I'd be more confident there. So if it's between that and the Colts at Colts are two and a half. I'm gonna take the Colts in our contest.

[Chad Millman]

I think we do the Colts.

[Simon Hunter]

Do you love Atlanta? Are you still indifferent about that game?

[Chad Millman]

I don't know.

[Simon Hunter]

Okay, we don't have to do it then because in our contest it's five and a half. I don't like, I don't like Atlanta. I'm on the Vikings. So, so let's. If you wanted to own the Atlanta, put them in at five and a half, that would have been on you. But like I, I read on it.

[Chad Millman]

I'd rather, I'd rather go with Indy plus two and a half.

[Simon Hunter]

Plus. Okay, so right now I got Eagles minus one and a half. Colts plus two and a half.

[Chad Millman]

Yep.

[Simon Hunter]

Dallas minus five and a half.

[Chad Millman]

Yep.

[Simon Hunter]

Jets plus six and a half. Tennessee plus five and a half.

[Chad Millman]

Yep. All right, that's the final five.

[Simon Hunter]

One change was Colts cold, Saints plus four and a half to the Colts plus two and a half.

[Chad Millman]

Yep.

[Simon Hunter]

And then last big decision, brother. Survivor.

[Chad Millman]

I'm a survivor. Well, I thought we decided the other day. I ended up in. I'm in two survivor pools. I think I put in the Cardinals and I put in the Cowboys.

[Simon Hunter]

So you're on the Cowboys.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah.

[Simon Hunter]

You come around. All right, well, the fans took a vote. I think you got like over a thousand five hundred or whatever it was votes. They were on Dallas with us Ravens for the fans. I want to do Dallas because it's just we're never, we're never going to use them again. I don't know what else in the season we take them. And I'm not gonna lie to you, Chad, I'm coming around the Panthers a little bit today where it's like I could close my eyes a little bit and see them pulling the upset off this Cardinal seem. I know it's impossible, but listen, open your goddamn eyes, Tyler, man, I can't.

[Chad Millman]

Open your eyes.

[Simon Hunter]

Can't do Kyler. I can't do it. You're a man for putting your survivor. I can't do Kyler. I gotta go.

[Chad Millman]

Open your eyes. The reason I didn't do the Ravens and we'll let everyone, we'll get out of here is there's a very good chance towards the end of the year a lot of teams they play will be injured. So could they. But I think overall their roster is better and I'd rather have to use the Ravens late in the year than any other other teams we were talking about. All right, so just to be clear, the final five Tennessee Titans plus five and a half. That's where the line is right now. Jets plus six and a half Dallas minus five and a half Philadelphia minus one and a half Indianapolis plus two and a half. That'll be a graphic on the screen. You're probably seeing it right now. This has been Sharper Square part of the volume podcast network. We will be back on Sharper Square YouTube tonight live after the late afternoon games around 7:30pm Eastern. We'll recap all the misery and glory of the day. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you get your podcast pods Rate Review Subscribe. Leave us some feedback. It is a gift. Until tonight. Love you.

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[Colin Cowherd]

Colin Coward from the Colin coward podcast on Fox 1. Now you can stream your favorite live sport so you can be there live for the biggest moments. That means NFL Sundays and college football games, nascar, Major League Baseball, postseason and more with Fox one. You get it all live. Edge of your seat plays, High octane moments and that feeling like you're right there in the action. Fox one we live for live streaming.

[Simon Hunter]

Now.

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