Sharp or Square — FINAL NFL Week 2 Bets (Sept 14, 2025)

Hosts: Chad Millman (CM) & Simon Hunter (SH)
Podcast: Sharp or Square by iHeartPodcasts/The Volume
Episode Purpose:
Chad and Simon go through their final NFL Week 2 betting card—the five games they submit to their high-stakes contest—debating which sides are sharp or square, walking listeners through their thought process, confidence, and number discipline.

Episode Overview & Main Theme

The main focus is Chad and Simon’s real-time, candid decision process as they assemble their five official NFL Week 2 contest picks against the spread. This is the “eavesdropping” version of their usual behind-the-scenes call, emphasizing their analytic approach, game-by-game reviews, market moves, injury updates, sharp vs public perceptions, and contest number value.

Key Games Discussed & Insights

1. Rams at Tennessee Titans (+5.5)

Timestamps: [03:42]–[07:57]

• Simon’s Breakdown:
  • Key thematic bet—both hosts are comfortable with the number. Cam Ward (rookie QB) is a concern, but Titans’ defense, especially Jeffrey Simmons, should be a difference-maker against a depleted Rams O-line.
  • Simon cautions about betting flat numbers but maintains “we’re rolling the dice” because the public is still too high on the Rams and down on Tennessee.
• Key Quote:
  • “Scary spot taking the rookie here, but I love this Tennessee team. I think they’re still being overvalued.” — Simon Hunter [05:29]
• Chad’s Take:
  • Five is a “dead number,” but he’s “totally good with it” at +5.5 and becoming more bullish as they talk.
  • On contest line discipline: “Five is kind of a dead number. There's a big difference going from five, five and a half, six, six and a half.” [06:41]
• Memorable: Simon admits surviving a wedding on no sleep, still thinking about football. ([06:54]–[07:23])

2. Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (+6.5)

Timestamps: [07:57]–[12:20]

• Chad’s Angle:
  • Waiting to bet, hoping for +7 but takes +6.5 after seeing line moves.
  • Loves the Jets’ offense, thinks Bills’ defense is in trouble, especially the secondary. Cites “emotional letdown” factor for Buffalo.
• Simon’s Analysis:
  • Calls Jets their “sharpest pick.”
  • Sees Jets O as a “Ravens lite” with Justin Fields and Bruce Hall combo using zone read.
  • Noting sharp money at public books as line’s moving down—public teasers all on Buffalo.
  • “The professional side is going to be this Jet side... all the teasers, all of it, it’s all going to be Bill's money.” [10:44]
  • Emphasizes contest value: “We need every point here against Josh Allen.” [11:27]
• Notable Moment: Chad, mid-recording, hurriedly bets +6.5 as lines shift. “If people are watching and saw me squinting and looking away, it’s only because I decided to [bet].” [12:01]

3. New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-5.5)

Timestamps: [12:24]–[18:29]

• Chad’s Reasoning:
  • Sticking with Dallas at home. Giants’ Andrew Thomas likely out, so offensive line shakes confidence. Dak is much safer than Giants’ QB situation.
  • Emphasizes quarterback mismatch: “I’m going to bet on Dak at home in a dead number that is lower than six.” [13:26]
• Simon’s Response:
  • Shares hesitance as both “pros and public” love Dallas, but “can’t believe this is under six.”
  • Points to CD Lamb’s revenge motivation and competitiveness as a difference-maker.
  • Acknowledges “scary” that some pros keep taking Giants after +6 shows up.
  • “This is a true high-level competitor. So CD Pickens, I don’t see how the secondary of that Giants team stops that one-two.” [15:20]
• General Concern:
  • Both hosts are aware of the risk in “favorite” spots this week and wrestling with “what are we missing?”
  • “It’s week two. Weird things are going to happen. But I don't know. It just feels like it’s a bad number from the books and we’re getting a good number here.” — Simon [16:25]

4. Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) at Kansas City Chiefs

Timestamps: [18:29]–[23:35]

• Line Movement & Conviction:
  • Chad assures Simon convinced him to stick with Eagles; slight money coming in on KC but contest line is still -1.5.
  • Wrestling with the discomfort of betting against Mahomes as a dog at home, but figures it’s the right side.
• Simon’s Inner Turmoil:
  • “I rather lose this bet here on Hurts in this spot, than lose it on... Daniel Jones.” [19:29]
  • Breaks down why past trends (KC never 0-2 with Mahomes/Reid) don’t apply to this version of the Chiefs (travel fatigue, injuries, aging roster).
  • “They’re being priced like this is a November game... I make the line two and a half. It’s one. Crazy good value on this Eagles side.” [22:01]
  • Admits: “This is our squares bet of the week for sure.” [23:18]
  • Reflects on the agony of being so heavily invested against Mahomes: “All you can think of is Mahomes Magic. There’s no other reason to take the Chiefs team.” [24:38]

5. Finalizing the Fifth Play & Other Notables

Timestamps: [29:21]–[39:58]

Key Candidates Discussed:

• Seattle/Pittsburgh: Pulled due to line movement and injury uncertainty. Won’t enter a bad number.
  • “No need to put it in at a bad number.” — Simon [30:45]
• Denver at Indianapolis:
  • Settles on Colts +2.5 as the fifth pick. Good number, decent matchup concerns, but comfortable overall.
  • Chad: “I think we do the Colts.” [39:28]
• Saints, Bengals/Jags, Patriots, Atlanta: All discussed and debated, but ultimately too much hesitation or bad numbers.

Final Five Picks (Contest Submissions)

Timestamps: [39:58]–[41:11], [41:15]–[41:40]

1. Tennessee Titans +5.5
2. New York Jets +6.5
3. Dallas Cowboys -5.5
4. Philadelphia Eagles -1.5
5. Indianapolis Colts +2.5

“Alright, that’s the final five.” — Chad Millman [40:10]

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On market discipline:

  “Five is a dead number. I feel totally good about it. I actually am feeling more confident about it in my head than the way you sound about it.”
  — Chad [06:44]

• On “public vs sharp” tension:

  “The sharp number for the Titans, though, is the six.” — Simon [12:20]

• On betting against Mahomes:

  “I woke up, like, had a horrible dream and I was just like, oh my god, Mahomes dog at home. What am I doing?... I have so much money on it. I just can’t believe that this number has not budged.” — Simon [23:40]

• On contest strategy:

  “This is an opportunity where we are comfortable with the good quarterback against the bad quarterback at home. To me, that’s the end. That’s the ball game.” — Chad [16:30]

Timestamps for Other Segments

• Survivor Pick Discussion:

  • Cowboys ultimately chosen over Cardinals and Ravens.
    [40:22]–[41:11]

• Injury News & Contest Value:

  • Several games, like Dallas/Giants and Saints/49ers, see betting decisions hinge on late-breaking injury reports.
    [13:41]–[14:10] (Andrew Thomas), [33:46]–[35:57] (Saints/49ers discussion)

Episode Tone & Style

Conversational, self-deprecating, sometimes anxious, but always evidence and number-driven. The hosts allow themselves to feel nervous, admit market confusion, and repeatedly stress the importance of contest value, number-shopping, and not overreacting to Week 1. They banter about real-life distractions, contest stress, and openly share their process warts and all.

Summary Table: Final Five Plays

| Matchup | Pick | Contest Line | |-----------------------------|-------------------------|--------------| | Rams at Titans | Titans | +5.5 | | Bills at Jets | Jets | +6.5 | | Giants at Cowboys | Cowboys | -5.5 | | Eagles at Chiefs | Eagles | -1.5 | | Broncos at Colts | Colts | +2.5 |

For Listeners Who Missed the Episode:

• You’ll get a transparent look into how two betting professionals narrow down their picks, wrestle with market psychology, and obsess over every half point.
• The episode offers key context behind why they like or avoid certain sides and how contest betting differs from typical “market betting.”
• Chad and Simon are particularly candid about their discomfort betting “square” favorites and share actionable info about market moves and injury impact.
• The picks are distilled into a final, consensus “five” with contest-specific logic, not just general recommendations.

End of Summary