Sharp or Square: FINAL NFL Week 3 Bets

Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Date: September 21, 2025

Overview

This episode of Sharp or Square is dedicated to locking in the hosts’ final five NFL Week 3 betting contest picks and giving listeners up-to-the-minute advice on the sharpest angles in the market. Betting expert Chad Millman and pro gambler Simon Hunter scrutinize market moves, line value, public versus sharp action, and injury news to highlight which sides are “sharp” (pro bets) and which are “square” (public or potentially misguided bets). Expect frank discussion, hard-won wisdom, and plenty of wiseguy humor as Chad and Simon grind through possible picks—plus a look at survivor pool implications and outright honesty on which games feel sickening to bet, but necessary.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Week 3 Context & Betting Environment

• Quarterback Injuries: Week 3 features several QB injuries, but Simon notes “luckily, you know, we’ve talked about all the games this week…we’re not really hyper focused on those games.” (03:35)
• Dog Week: Simon flags that “it’s a known week for dog betters. Like, it’s a good week to be betting dogs.” (03:37)
• Line Movement & Contest Strategy: The show’s framework is picking games where locked-in contest lines provide value compared to the moving market.

2. Main Bets and Game Breakdowns

A. Green Bay Packers @ Cleveland Browns (+8.5, Contest Line)

• Hosts’ Pick: Browns +8.5
• Rationale:
  • Both Chad and Simon had zero hesitation here, noting market overreaction to Green Bay’s strong start and heavy public action on the Packers.
  • “We’re on an elite top tier defense at home against an overvalued team versus an undervalued team.” (07:58, Chad)
  • Simon: “This is what I love about me and Chad doing this show together…as soon as I saw the number, I said there’s no way we don’t take this number.” (05:22)
• Market Info:
  • Some books still at 8.5; market drifting toward 7.5, indicating money on Cleveland is respected by books.
• Strategic Note: “We are betting on Joe Flacco. We’re gonna need a back door. We’re gonna need a miracle cover at some point.” (07:09, Simon)

B. Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+0.5, Contest Line)

• Hosts’ Pick: Texans +0.5 (need outright win)
• Rationale:
  • Texans have been undervalued after bad losses, but divisional history, desperation, and pros heavily backing Houston.
  • Simon: “As hard as I want to bring the tail for the Texans, there’s a lot of things…that is pretty alarming…run defense might be a major problem…they don’t really have a running game. But…teams or just…public leaving these teams for dead.” (09:36)
• Nervousness:
  • “Our contest, it’s plus a half…If we take the Texans, we’re literally, we’re saying they’re going to win this game.” (11:24, Simon)
  • Enormous professional consensus on Houston gives pause—“always a little nerve wracking where it’s just all love for this side.” (11:50)
• Chad summarizes: “We’ve both bet into it. I feel like it’s on the edge.” (12:49)

C. LA Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5, Contest Line)

• Hosts’ Pick: Eagles -3.5
• Rationale:
  • Market and pros leaning toward Rams, but hosts see value on the Eagles who “haven't needed to open up the full bag of tricks” (13:06, Chad).
  • Simon argues Rams overvalued after beating up weak teams, while the Eagles, despite criticism, are strategically playing conservative, and Jalen Hurts will adapt as needed.
  • Simon: “It’s a surprisingly buy low spot and a fade of an overrated Rams team that we have no doubt in their talent level.” (14:34)
  • Key tactical point: Eagles' pass rush should disrupt Stafford, who is “not the scrambling type at all.” (15:46)
• Market Info: 3.5 in contest, some books at 3—“If you can get the three, like you can at Hard Rock, go get it. But I no issues taking the three and a half.” (16:40, Simon)

D. Dallas Cowboys @ Chicago Bears (+1.5 in market, -1.5 in contest)

• Hosts’ Pick: Pass in Contest (Would bet Bears at +1.5, but not as favorites)
• Rationale:
  • Chad: “In our contest, the Bears are one and a half point favorites. That becomes a pass to me, a pass because…I don’t like the way the market has moved.” (23:34)
  • Simon still likes Bears in market: “Them being their whole secondary being out is a huge deal...But I think Mother Nature might give us one here...I love the Bear side…gross game, gross matchup…not gonna force it in because it’s a bad number.” (24:14, Simon)
  • Bears only relevant for listeners who can bet them as underdogs.

E. Denver Broncos @ LA Chargers (+2.5, Contest Line)

• Hosts’ Pick: Broncos +2.5
• Rationale:
  • Simon: “I’m really, really love this Denver spot.” (31:54) High situational and historical angles against favoring Chargers (teams in this spot rarely cover), plus public overrating.
  • “Bo Nix hasn’t played well through the first two weeks, you expect Sean Payton and him to get right here against the Chargers defense...but this is strictly about the number.” (31:54, Simon)
  • Key Stat: Trends favor 0-2 teams ATS in this divisional matchup spot (won’t force, but strong endorsement).
• Market Note: Shop for +3 where available.

F. NY Jets @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7.5, Contest Line)

• Hosts’ Pick: Jets +7.5
• Rationale:
  • Chad: "We cannot overstate the offensive line injuries [for Tampa]." (35:02)
  • Simon: "Short week. Baker [Mayfield] just getting into three car accidents in that game…was just beat up. And now he’s going against a pretty good defensive line with no linemen. To me, this game is just them trying to survive." (35:03)
  • Strong consensus that with all Bucs injuries, divisional desperation, and the number above 7, Jets have value despite how painful it feels.
  • Simon: “Ugly dogs in Cleveland, eight and a half and the Jets plus seven.” (40:20)

G. Brief Mentions & Near Misses

• New England Patriots: Intriguing but not enough confidence on injuries and low spread.
• Carolina Panthers: Some sharp money at +5.5, but not enough hosts’ conviction to make final five.
• Saints/Seahawks: Only relevant for Survivor pool discussion, not bet recommendations.
• Chiefs, Lions: Both hosts see line value but not enough for contest pick or big bet.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Browns bet:
  “We are betting on Joe Flacco. We’re gonna need a back door. We’re gonna need a miracle cover at some point.” – Simon (07:09)
• On the pain of betting dogs:
  “God, this is going to be a miserable day. Miserable or it’s going to be the greatest day ever. That’s the beauty of Sunday mornings in the fall.” – Chad (40:55)
• On hitting numbers:
  “Oftentimes we're in a contest…those contest lines lock on Wednesday. The lines move over…if we can take advantage…we do.” – Chad (04:25)
• On Bears fandom:
  "Nobody who's a Bears fan is confident in the Bears ever. We hate the organization, the ownership." – Chad (27:46)
• On the Rams-Eagles line:
  “If you can get the three…go get it. But no issues taking three and a half. I've bet a ton of three and a half this weekend.” – Simon (16:40)

Key Timestamps

• 03:35 – Simon: "It's a known week for dog betters. Like, it's a good week to be betting dogs".
• 05:22-08:47 – Full breakdown, packers @ Browns (+8.5).
• 09:36-13:01 – Texans @ Jaguars, professional money, divisional trends.
• 13:18–17:43 – Rams @ Eagles, line discussion, why Eagles despite "wiseguys" fading them.
• 23:34-28:41 – Cowboys @ Bears, market moves, “pass” at bad numbers.
• 29:16–32:52 – Broncos @ Chargers, spot analysis and why Chargers are inflated.
• 35:02–40:23 – Jets @ Bucs, injury angle, contest pick debate.
• 40:55 – Final summary and hosts’ feelings: “God, this is going to be a miserable day…or greatest day ever.”

Final Contest Five

The hosts’ final five picks for their contest, based on value and consensus, are:

1. Cleveland Browns +8.5
2. Houston Texans +0.5
3. Philadelphia Eagles -3.5
4. Denver Broncos +2.5
5. New York Jets +7.5

Tone and Takeaways

Chad and Simon keep their analysis sharp, honest, and occasionally self-deprecating. They pull no punches about ugly picks—emphasizing discipline, contest angles, and emotional resilience ("miserable day or greatest day ever"). Both bring years of pro betting perspective, blending statistical models and hard-earned instincts. Listeners gain actionable insight on micro (market shifts, line value) and macro (narrative, desperation, public/vs/sharp splits) levels while enjoying a conversational, bantering style.

“Subscribe, like, rate, review—join us for the post-mortem on Sunday night.” (42:00, Chad)