FINAL NFL Week 3 bets: Cowboys-Bears, Packers-Browns, Chiefs-Giants, Rams-Eagles, Chiefs-Giants & more

Summary

Sharp or Square: FINAL NFL Week 3 Bets

Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Date: September 21, 2025

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Overview

This episode of Sharp or Square is dedicated to locking in the hosts’ final five NFL Week 3 betting contest picks and giving listeners up-to-the-minute advice on the sharpest angles in the market. Betting expert Chad Millman and pro gambler Simon Hunter scrutinize market moves, line value, public versus sharp action, and injury news to highlight which sides are “sharp” (pro bets) and which are “square” (public or potentially misguided bets). Expect frank discussion, hard-won wisdom, and plenty of wiseguy humor as Chad and Simon grind through possible picks—plus a look at survivor pool implications and outright honesty on which games feel sickening to bet, but necessary.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Week 3 Context & Betting Environment

• Quarterback Injuries: Week 3 features several QB injuries, but Simon notes “luckily, you know, we’ve talked about all the games this week…we’re not really hyper focused on those games.” (03:35)
• Dog Week: Simon flags that “it’s a known week for dog betters. Like, it’s a good week to be betting dogs.” (03:37)
• Line Movement & Contest Strategy: The show’s framework is picking games where locked-in contest lines provide value compared to the moving market.

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2. Main Bets and Game Breakdowns

A. Green Bay Packers @ Cleveland Browns (+8.5, Contest Line)

• Hosts’ Pick: Browns +8.5
• Rationale:
  • Both Chad and Simon had zero hesitation here, noting market overreaction to Green Bay’s strong start and heavy public action on the Packers.
  • “We’re on an elite top tier defense at home against an overvalued team versus an undervalued team.” (07:58, Chad)
  • Simon: “This is what I love about me and Chad doing this show together…as soon as I saw the number, I said there’s no way we don’t take this number.” (05:22)
• Market Info:
  • Some books still at 8.5; market drifting toward 7.5, indicating money on Cleveland is respected by books.
• Strategic Note: “We are betting on Joe Flacco. We’re gonna need a back door. We’re gonna need a miracle cover at some point.” (07:09, Simon)

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B. Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+0.5, Contest Line)

• Hosts’ Pick: Texans +0.5 (need outright win)
• Rationale:
  • Texans have been undervalued after bad losses, but divisional history, desperation, and pros heavily backing Houston.
  • Simon: “As hard as I want to bring the tail for the Texans, there’s a lot of things…that is pretty alarming…run defense might be a major problem…they don’t really have a running game. But…teams or just…public leaving these teams for dead.” (09:36)
• Nervousness:
  • “Our contest, it’s plus a half…If we take the Texans, we’re literally, we’re saying they’re going to win this game.” (11:24, Simon)
  • Enormous professional consensus on Houston gives pause—“always a little nerve wracking where it’s just all love for this side.” (11:50)
• Chad summarizes: “We’ve both bet into it. I feel like it’s on the edge.” (12:49)

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C. LA Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5, Contest Line)

• Hosts’ Pick: Eagles -3.5
• Rationale:
  • Market and pros leaning toward Rams, but hosts see value on the Eagles who “haven't needed to open up the full bag of tricks” (13:06, Chad).
  • Simon argues Rams overvalued after beating up weak teams, while the Eagles, despite criticism, are strategically playing conservative, and Jalen Hurts will adapt as needed.
  • Simon: “It’s a surprisingly buy low spot and a fade of an overrated Rams team that we have no doubt in their talent level.” (14:34)
  • Key tactical point: Eagles' pass rush should disrupt Stafford, who is “not the scrambling type at all.” (15:46)
• Market Info: 3.5 in contest, some books at 3—“If you can get the three, like you can at Hard Rock, go get it. But I no issues taking the three and a half.” (16:40, Simon)

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D. Dallas Cowboys @ Chicago Bears (+1.5 in market, -1.5 in contest)

• Hosts’ Pick: Pass in Contest (Would bet Bears at +1.5, but not as favorites)
• Rationale:
  • Chad: “In our contest, the Bears are one and a half point favorites. That becomes a pass to me, a pass because…I don’t like the way the market has moved.” (23:34)
  • Simon still likes Bears in market: “Them being their whole secondary being out is a huge deal...But I think Mother Nature might give us one here...I love the Bear side…gross game, gross matchup…not gonna force it in because it’s a bad number.” (24:14, Simon)
  • Bears only relevant for listeners who can bet them as underdogs.

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E. Denver Broncos @ LA Chargers (+2.5, Contest Line)

• Hosts’ Pick: Broncos +2.5
• Rationale:
  • Simon: “I’m really, really love this Denver spot.” (31:54) High situational and historical angles against favoring Chargers (teams in this spot rarely cover), plus public overrating.
  • “Bo Nix hasn’t played well through the first two weeks, you expect Sean Payton and him to get right here against the Chargers defense...but this is strictly about the number.” (31:54, Simon)
  • Key Stat: Trends favor 0-2 teams ATS in this divisional matchup spot (won’t force, but strong endorsement).
• Market Note: Shop for +3 where available.

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F. NY Jets @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7.5, Contest Line)

• Hosts’ Pick: Jets +7.5
• Rationale:
  • Chad: "We cannot overstate the offensive line injuries [for Tampa]." (35:02)
  • Simon: "Short week. Baker [Mayfield] just getting into three car accidents in that game…was just beat up. And now he’s going against a pretty good defensive line with no linemen. To me, this game is just them trying to survive." (35:03)
  • Strong consensus that with all Bucs injuries, divisional desperation, and the number above 7, Jets have value despite how painful it feels.
  • Simon: “Ugly dogs in Cleveland, eight and a half and the Jets plus seven.” (40:20)

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G. Brief Mentions & Near Misses

• New England Patriots: Intriguing but not enough confidence on injuries and low spread.
• Carolina Panthers: Some sharp money at +5.5, but not enough hosts’ conviction to make final five.
• Saints/Seahawks: Only relevant for Survivor pool discussion, not bet recommendations.
• Chiefs, Lions: Both hosts see line value but not enough for contest pick or big bet.

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Browns bet:
  “We are betting on Joe Flacco. We’re gonna need a back door. We’re gonna need a miracle cover at some point.” – Simon (07:09)
• On the pain of betting dogs:
  “God, this is going to be a miserable day. Miserable or it’s going to be the greatest day ever. That’s the beauty of Sunday mornings in the fall.” – Chad (40:55)
• On hitting numbers:
  “Oftentimes we're in a contest…those contest lines lock on Wednesday. The lines move over…if we can take advantage…we do.” – Chad (04:25)
• On Bears fandom:
  "Nobody who's a Bears fan is confident in the Bears ever. We hate the organization, the ownership." – Chad (27:46)
• On the Rams-Eagles line:
  “If you can get the three…go get it. But no issues taking three and a half. I've bet a ton of three and a half this weekend.” – Simon (16:40)

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Key Timestamps

• 03:35 – Simon: "It's a known week for dog betters. Like, it's a good week to be betting dogs".
• 05:22-08:47 – Full breakdown, packers @ Browns (+8.5).
• 09:36-13:01 – Texans @ Jaguars, professional money, divisional trends.
• 13:18–17:43 – Rams @ Eagles, line discussion, why Eagles despite "wiseguys" fading them.
• 23:34-28:41 – Cowboys @ Bears, market moves, “pass” at bad numbers.
• 29:16–32:52 – Broncos @ Chargers, spot analysis and why Chargers are inflated.
• 35:02–40:23 – Jets @ Bucs, injury angle, contest pick debate.
• 40:55 – Final summary and hosts’ feelings: “God, this is going to be a miserable day…or greatest day ever.”

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Final Contest Five

The hosts’ final five picks for their contest, based on value and consensus, are:

1. Cleveland Browns +8.5
2. Houston Texans +0.5
3. Philadelphia Eagles -3.5
4. Denver Broncos +2.5
5. New York Jets +7.5

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Tone and Takeaways

Chad and Simon keep their analysis sharp, honest, and occasionally self-deprecating. They pull no punches about ugly picks—emphasizing discipline, contest angles, and emotional resilience ("miserable day or greatest day ever"). Both bring years of pro betting perspective, blending statistical models and hard-earned instincts. Listeners gain actionable insight on micro (market shifts, line value) and macro (narrative, desperation, public/vs/sharp splits) levels while enjoying a conversational, bantering style.

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“Subscribe, like, rate, review—join us for the post-mortem on Sunday night.” (42:00, Chad)

Transcript

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[Chad Milmond]

Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock Bet. We are part of the Voluum Podcast Network. This is the betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Milmond. And I am joined by my co host, my bff, my companion, my compadre professional batter, Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.

[Simon Hunter]

Chad. How you doing?

[Chad Milmond]

Amped. Amped for Sunday. This is the stripped down in the room eavesdropping version of Sharper Square. You and I are going to nail down our final five picks now that we've had injuries, which there have been some roster announcements, we've seen some lines move. Are you ready to roll, my brother?

[Simon Hunter]

Can't wait.

[Chad Milmond]

I feel like I'm at peak energy and you're like coming off a bender of having been up for 97 hours betting on games.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah. And honestly, I'm, I'm looking forward to taking like a little hour nap here before kickoff, so I'm fired up. These. I'm sure people have seen all the trends and all this stuff this week. It's, it's a known week for dog betters. Like, it's a good week to be Ben dogs. And yeah, it's, it's a busy week. And luckily, you know, we've talked about all the games this week. There's. Are we up to five quarterbacks out or four quarterbacks are out? We're not really hyper focused on those games, thank God. So for me, it's like, you know, there wasn't a lot of people complained about already having quarterbacks, injuries and everything like that, but to me, it's. You can avoid those games. There's so many good, good games this week and so many good lines this week. So, yeah, not, not too hyper focused on that Vikings, Bengals game. But yeah, there's plenty of other ones we're going to talk about here.

[Chad Milmond]

All right, so let's, let's get into it. These, these are the games we had zeroed in on the other day. And a reminder, a lot of times we get. We're in a contest. Those contest lines lock on Wednesday. The lines move over the course of the past few days. Oftentimes they're the same. But if we can take advantage of these contest lines on games that we already liked, we do the first one up. Green Bay at Cleveland. That line is pretty much painted seven and a half across the board. We liked Cleveland all week. At eight and a half. It is at eight and a half in the contest. I still think I'd like Cleveland at seven and a half for purposes of anyone listening or watching to the show right now. But you're not getting the best of the number. So at eight and a half, to me, it feels like we've played it it's eight and a half in the contest. Feels like we want to lock in on that one.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah. Another game we were never going to avoid. And this. This is what I love about me and Chad doing this show together, that there's some games that one of us could talk the other person out of this game. As soon as I saw the number, I said, there's no. There's no way we don't take this number, let alone having the contest. And there's still one very public book out there that has the eight and a half.

[Chad Milmond]

Yes.

[Simon Hunter]

But I don't mind grabbing the seven and a half or Hard Rock if that's your heart. If that's the only choice you have, you're still getting a really good number with the hook. And let's be honest, the. The difference between seven and a half, eight and a half, it's just mental, like the odds of it actually landing on eight, it's. Obviously, there's a percentage of chance of. That's why you want the best of the number. But I, I just see this one either being a field goal win by Green Bay, honestly, or somehow Cleveland pulls up the upset. You just. Again, we're in week three here. Week three, you see a lot of really weird stuff where there's teams that get heavily overvalued and there's teams that get heavily undervalued. And you see the line reflect that. And you've seen it here, right? It's been. I mean, there's a couple books that are getting Cleveland money, but most, most bookmakers I've talked to this week, it's just all Green Bay money. And they are very happy when I come in to bet on Cleveland. So they. They've needed the help from their professionals balancing the books just because of how heavy they are with the Moneyline parlays, the teasers, everything is just on Green Bay. Green Bay. You know, I don't know how many people took me their survivor pool, right? It's Green Bay on the road, but they're just. People are doing that, which is a crazy thing to think about. Right. It's. It's just a variable love team right now because people are so hyper focused on the defensive line and how old Jordan loves play for good reason. Right. They look like the best team right now in the nfc, but we see time time again. It's really hard to be at your best three, four weeks in a row, especially in the NFL, especially when you're going up against a Cleveland defensive line. So, yeah, me and Chad Knew the deal. We are betting on Joe Flacco. We're gonna need a back door. We're gonna need a miracle cover at some point. And yeah, it's, it's really us putting our faith into this Cleveland defense and also that their offense is as bad as the public reception is right now. So Jedi, I. Unfortunately, I thought on Thursday maybe something will happen. I can talk Chad out of this one, but this is. I knew it right away last week on Sunday, this was gonna be guaranteed in our contest. Especially at eight and a half guy.

[Chad Milmond]

I was never going to be talked out of this one. I wanted you. I wanted you to talk me out of it. I was desperate. I told you. I watched the condensed version of this game on the rowing machine. That's how much I wanted to not bet on Cleveland.

[Simon Hunter]

I was looking for the Ravens Cleveland game.

[Chad Milmond]

Yeah, the Ravens Cleveland game. I was, I was desperate to not have to bet on the Browns. But I just like the number. It's number one and number two rush defenses in yards per carry. So if, if Green Bay is going to win this game, it's going to be because Jordan Love throws deep and over the top. But that also plays itself, I think, to a lot more incompletions, a lot more potential plays in the game. So that could favor Cleveland because it allows for a little more variance and turnovers and things like that. So we're going to be on the Browns. We can try to rationalize it any, any way we want. Looking at the numbers, we're on a elite top tier defense at home against an overvalued team versus an undervalued team. We're just going to do it.

[Simon Hunter]

Love it.

[Chad Milmond]

Houston at Jacksonville. So this got to two and a half. It's at one and a half right now. Wise guys have been hitting this. The Jacksonville Jaguars are plus one and a half. It got to two and a half for like two hours in the middle of the week and then it kept moving down, down, down. I think for this game, we like Houston. We've bet Houston. We really have to believe that the quality of the Texans losses against the Bucs and the Rams shows that they are the better team here and that their history of consistently winning in their division is going to prove to be the difference against a Jacks team. I don't think we're sold on considering the two games they played so far.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah. And as hard as I want to bring the tail for the Texans, there's a lot of things that are showing up on tape. I think a Lot of people are seeing in the football world that is pretty alarming of this Texans team and not something we think they're going to overnight fix. Right. Their run defense might be a major problem for them going forward this season and obviously they don't really have a running game. And you know, we joke that Nick Chubb touchdown, the more you watch it, the more you do realize it was a gimme.

[Chad Milmond]

Right?

[Simon Hunter]

They just don't have that running back right now that can offset C.J. and that's, that's a big deal because last year you did see Joe Mixon was very, very good for them even if the numbers don't back it up. He was an effective weapon, especially in the red zone for them last year. So this one with the Texans really is about us trusting the numbers. And once again, teams or just I should say the public leaving these teams for dead. Right? They're 0202 against the spread and it's only professional money. The only. The thing that gives me hesitation with them is. I don't know if I don't know about you, Chad. I don't know if I've talked to a single professional better that's on the Jaguars. It's all Texans. I know the public is on the Jaguars and which I totally understand, but it's always a little nerve wracking where it's just like last week with the jets where it's just all love for this side and like you said, the numbers come down. Our contest, it's plus a half. We're not even getting one and a half. If we take the Texans, we're literally, we're saying they're going to win this game. Like you're not. I mean they're not tying this game. So do we believe Houston can win this game? I do. It's a team that has done really well against the Jaguars. Doesn't matter who their coaches who are the quarterback is. It's just consistently they've matched up well against him and we know divisionally there's weird things like that. There's weird quirks like that where different teams, you know, just scheme up against, well, against other teams. So it's. We wouldn't be shocked. Houston going over three, they have major issues. But I love a desperate team like they are with the type of mentality they have in d'. Amico. Ryan's in this spot against a Jacksonville team that could be fraudulent. Like we, we gave them a lot of love because they beat up on a Panthers defense and then beat up on a Cincinnati defense. Here we go. This is a true test. You have an incredibly desperate Houston's team that got embarrassed and there's no other way to put it, like they let Bucky and White run all over them last week against the Buccaneers. The Buccaneers did whatever they want in the run game. So I. I just tend to love these teams in these exact spots and all the negativity around. CJ I expect him to make some big plays for us in this spot. I know he's hearing the noise and he's feeling it after being him again just outplayed on a Monday night prime time game. So we are not getting the best of the number. I really wife force us to take a number that's not the best number. But there's two games here that we have to pick between the Houston's one of them where it's like I could, you know, talked out of it. Chad really wanted to but I've been betting into it so heavy. I'm so confident in the number. I. I obviously wish we had the one and a half but I'll take the half and I'll play it in our contest if you want to.

[Chad Milmond]

I. Well let's. You had a whole journey there because in the beginning I thought you were going to say that you're not really comfortable with it. But then we came around and we've both bet into it. I feel like it's on the edge.

[Simon Hunter]

And I have it as our number five. So I'm with you on that.

[Chad Milmond]

What's. You know. So we'll see. We'll see. I mean look, we're going to turn this game on. The Texans are going to steamroll and we're going to be. Are you freaking kidding me? That like we even debated this at one and a half. Like why are we. Why are we getting in our heads and dealing.

[Simon Hunter]

I know. That's what I'm trying to overthink the numbers.

[Chad Milmond]

You know, sometimes picking you in details. LA Rams at Philadelphia Eagles. It's three and a half. It's three at Hard Rock. If you can get the three, take the Eagles. I live in Connecticut. I have been waiting for this thing to get back down to three. It's not going to get there. I'm going to have to bite the bullet and take the three and a half. We are against the wise guys on this. I hate that we are not getting the three. I really, really do. Why can't I get over this Eagles team? Why do I feel like the Rams had incredible games against two teams? One in the Texans, one of the Titans that haven't found their way yet. And the Eagles are like at that uber confident we can win at an 80% level and not even open up our full bag of tricks yet. Stage and Saquon Barkley could run for 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns in this game.

[Simon Hunter]

And I will say this respect to Hard Rock for holding the three because it's no other book here, especially New Jersey has been at the three and.

[Chad Milmond]

It looks like they've been taking the Rams money and they're just moving the juice. Like I've been waiting for four days for this thing to go to three somewhere.

[Simon Hunter]

It's. And I was gonna say you said the professional size of Rams it's not. I told you it's not as professional. You think it's. It's a weird spot where it's not. Like I said it's not that it's the lazy professional bet, but it is right. They're, they're strictly looking at this as the Rams have been playing better first two games of the year. Eagles teams offense looks putrid. They don't look consistent and you know it's rare. You have the defending super bowl champ who just beat the team they defeated the super bowl on the road the week before. Be just badmouth by people, right? It doesn't really happen that often. The team starts 2:0 after winning the super bowl and people are just down on them. So I think we're in the same line here of this is just a surprisingly buy low spot and a fade of an overrated Rams team that we have no doubt in their talent level. Right. Stafford with those weapons and he looks good, right? I don't know if it's the shots he's taking. Whoever it is, he looks in mid season form like this is the best he's looked since. You know, I would say that Bills game going back to last year when he was at home against the Bills and he put up like 42 points. So you know, we haven't had this staffer in a long time. He just looks totally in rhythm, solely confident. But when you break down this Eagles defense, how they can attack it, I mean they haven't really had to have, you know, shown their weakness here, but the offensive line is an actual weakness to this Rams team. And you saw in that Houston game, right there was a reason they were only able to put up 14 points against that Rams defense and it was just because Stafford was under arrest and didn't have time. And you look at this match for The Eagles team, they actually, surprisingly, have been really, really good at rushing the passer. And you saw that last week with Mahomes. It didn't show up in the stats because he scrambled so much. Stafford is not. That's not a part of Stafford's game at all. He is not the scrambling type. So it's gonna be an interesting game. We're gonna know pretty quick, right, if they can get Stafford off his spot. Right. Force him out of this, force him out of the middle. That's a Jalen Carter stat. If he can get up the middle. And then it's about the Eagles getting back to the run game. I know the whole question has been about Hertz and the passing offense. To me, I, I get what they're doing, right? There's same thing you saw with Josh Allen did on Thursday night. It's like, I'm just not gonna lose this game. Like you're gonna make the mistake and I'll trust in our defense and our offense to play smart enough not to make that turnover and, you know, make that huge mistake. And you kind of see that that's the way the NFL is going now. People are going to start playing more conservative or just say, for football and try to make the other guys blink first. And we've seen it with Stafford. Stafford is an absolute gunslinger. If he gets behind seven, he will start throwing to those tight windows because that's just the type of player he is. You can't change who he is. Right? He is what he is. So I love this number. It's funny where if this was four, I would honestly have a different tune on it. But the fact that it's three and a half, I do think there's a really good value bet. And I, I'm. I'm with Chad. If you can get the three like you kind of hard rock, go get it. But I no issues taking the three and a half. I bet a ton of three and a half this weekend. Next week. I'm sure we're going to be fading this Eagles team, but yeah, I can't believe the back to back weeks. We're going to be taking the Eagles in the contest.

[Chad Milmond]

All right, well, stay tuned for Tonight's show around 7:30pm Eastern after the late afternoon game so we can talk about how we're fading the Eagles in Week 4. But yeah, like your confidence in the Eagles buoys my confidence. And everyone's criticism of the Eagles offense right now is actually why I kind of like the Eagles offense. Jalen hurts, does not care what the public is saying Jalen Hurts only knows what's happening inside his building and and how he can manage this offense and doing exactly what he needs to do to win. And if the Eagles need Jalen Hurst to throw down field more to win a game, then that's what he's going to figure out how to do. And so to me, I am just not that worried about the ineffectiveness of this Eagles offense at certain spots in the games because Jalen Hurts knows exactly who he is and what this team needs. Feels like Eagles three and a half and Brown's eight and a half right now are making strong entries for positions in the contest. We're on the fence about Houston. Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. It's not just a great sportsbook app. They give you crazy stats. Check out these streaks from the Hard Rock Bet stats hub. You can find live odds to bet on all of these streaks in the Hard Rock Bet app. Josh Jacobs has scored a touchdown in 11 straight games. Well, that continued. The Texans have won 11 straight road games versus AFC south opponents. I definitely hope that continues. Brandon Cooks has 16 plus receiving yards for 28 September games in a row. Yes, 28. How about J.K. dobbins? He's rushed for 50 plus yards in eight consecutive Sunday games. John U. Smith has scored a touchdown in seven straight games versus AFC opponents. The Titans have not covered the spread at home in nine consecutive games. The Patriots have lost 11 games in a row following a win they won last week. Who's writing this ad copy? Is it Simon Hunter, the trendsetter? All that is just a tap away when you open the Hard Rock Bet app. If you haven't tried your first bet on Hard Rock Bet, there's still time for you to get $150 in bonus bets. If you win, just place a $5 bet and if it hits, you get not only your winnings but $150 in extra bonus bets. Plus on hard rock Bet you can get a parlay boost for today's games. There's new promos every day. Boost your same game parlay or SGP Max so your bet pays extra winnings. There's new promos every day, so if you're listening to this later, just open the app and check out what you've got. Any day of the week payable and bonus bets. Not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida. Offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states. Must be 21 and over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1-8-188, admit it in Indiana. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9 with it gambling problem. Call 1-800-GAMBLER in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio. You can make a difference in someone's life, including your own, with a job in home care. These jobs offer flexible schedules, health care, retirement options and free training. They also provide paid time off and opportunities for overtime. Visit oregonhomecarejobs.com to learn more and apply. That's oregonhomecarejobs.com.

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[Chad Milmond]

Tennessee, Virginia. I want to bring up Dallas and Chicago. Chicago is a one and a half point underdog right now. That was our brass balls bet of the week. I have bet the Bears at plus one and a half. I'm pretty sure you have too, for some reason. In our contest, the Bears are one and a half point favorites. That becomes a pass to me, a pass because I don't like the way the market has moved. We'd be playing into a number that goes against everything that we sort of practice when it comes to taking advantage of when these lines lock. So this game becomes a pass for me in the contest because the Bears are one and a half point favorites.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, my only preach on it is I've bet into this Bears line. I love this Bears spot and we've talked all week about it. If you bet the Dolphins on Thursday, if you're betting the Texans today, if you're betting Denver today, you have to bet this Bears line. It's. They're all pretty much the same.

[Chad Milmond]

There's no difference in the belief. There's no.

[Simon Hunter]

Again, it's all. Every team's different. The matches are all different like that. But at the end of the day, it's like this Bears team, this. I can't believe how undervalued they are. And the fact that everyone. I've talked, even professionals like the Cowboys and they all give me the same reasons. And you know, and if I'm trying to make an argument for this Bears team, them being their whole secondary being out is a huge deal. I agree with everyone telling us that. And you know, if you have to dream up a match for Dak, CD and Pickens, this is it. The Bears are they practice squad guys right now, line up a corner going up against pro bowlers. So that's the, that's the nerve wracking spot here. But I, I think Mother Nature might give us one here. I think it might rain, it might be a little windy, it might be bad weather if we can get lucky here in Chicago. So I'm not gonna force it in because it is a bad number like Chad said. But I did, I do think it comes down to Houston or the, or the Bears here where it's like, I know it's a bad number. I know it's minus one and a half for a contest. But I just, I can't get over how much I love the Bears in the spot against a Cowboys team. That Dak is going to have stinker games and unfortunately he does well. Like I said, he, like you've seen I talked about his record against teams below.500. He does really well against them. So once again not gonna force Nick because I said it to Chad that this Bears team, they might truly be a bottom four team this league, they might literally be that bad. So I love this because this is truly a make or break opinion changing type of game where if they can just come out, Caleb can put together a couple really good drives. I mean the over under I think was 50, 50 and a half. Once again I like the under there where it's like I feel like everyone is gonna be taking Cowboys in the over. I'm betting on hopefully some bad weather, loppy game giving me the under, give me the Bears. And it's, it's a really gross game, gross matchup. So if we don't have to put it, I'd be so happy because me and Chad, we both have Sunday ticket. If I don't need to make this in my four box, I would honestly. Thank you Chad. But I'm glad you're not as confident in it because it's like it always scares me when Bears fans are confident in the Bears. It's the ships of the chips are burnt there. Like there are no Bears fans I feel like left that are truly confident this Bears team. But I have talked a couple guys, you know, respected money who are very, very confident in this Bear side. But that I think what Chad's pointed out, they're really confident the plus one and a half. Yeah, they just think it's a really close game where I don't know, I still think it should be minus three Bears. So I still think there's value in this line. But once again I much rather have 4 1/2 points of value to my model on the 1 1/2 on the bears and forcing them at 1 1/2. So yeah, it sucks. It's a bad number in our contest. But yeah, I, it's gross. But I do, I love, I love the Bear side and I think their offense is surprised people. It's. Caleb's not as bad as he's looked through the first two weeks. He's. He's just been put in tough games, tough spots and you know, as we said, I think he'll get keep getting better Every week as he gets more comfortable in this offense.

[Chad Milmond]

Number one, I'm your bestie Bears fan, and I haven't been confident in the Bears since Justin Fields circa 2023. Number one, nobody who's a Bears fan is confident in the Bears ever. We hate the organization, the ownership.

[Simon Hunter]

You have managed, Mitch. MVP ticket.

[Chad Milmond]

Don't lie, dude. But then we're talking about, what, 2017, 2018.

[Simon Hunter]

It was real.

[Chad Milmond]

It is. Everybody who is a Bears fan is so angry, bitter. Except for the one dude who goes to every game still wearing that literal Bear outfit, who my friends and I text about it like, we can't believe this guy is still doing that for these games. Slight chance of precipitation if it gets bad. I hope you're right. Slight chance of precipitation.

[Simon Hunter]

We need the rain.

[Chad Milmond]

We need the rain. We need the rain like a farmer needed rain during the Dust Bowl. We need the rain. I don't know if the Bears make it here with four and a half points of value being gone in the contest. All right, so Denver plus two and a half. Just hanging there like a meatball. Is that someone we put in? Like, we're sort of struggling here to find 3, 4 and 5. We feel good about the Browns. We feel good about the Eagles. Who am I missing?

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, I mean, obviously, you know me. I've. I've loved Denver all week. Really fascinating red number and line because some books have gotten the Chargers up to like, minus 165 on the money line, but they've held it at two and a half. Like, I mean, back in the day used to be like, what, a minus 145, a minus two and a half. And now some books are holding it, but they're pricing their money line up to 165. So I. I feel like the books and me are in the same line of Chargers win a close one if they do win. But they're just. There's no way they cover this number. Like, that's just an inflated line. But I love this type of matchup because the Chargers do cover this again. I don't know come January how I feel about the Chargers, but this would literally, not just my model, but bookmakers as well. Changed our perspective on the Chargers team. Totally. Where it's like, okay, we thought they were a top, Potentially a top 10 team after last week. You win this game, you win three straight divisional games, and you blow out the Denver Broncos. You're like, okay, this is a juggernaut. Might win this division type of team now because it's this is just a bad spot historically. I gave out the stats like teams in this exact spot. So playing three straight divisional games, they're one in six in the last seven. This exact spot. Team's just playing like they just played two straight prime time night games coming to this spot. One of five in the last six in the spot. So it's like not a good spot for a Chargers team. And then we talked about the public overrating them, overvaluing them and just inflating this where you know tons of love once again to a team that put up three points in that second half against the Raiders. Like you saw when the adjustments were made to Herbert. He can't keep surviving with no run game like he has through the first two weeks. It's just that's not the offense horrible once we're running here. So can they get it right with the run game and the Chargers really become that totally complete team that the general public and sports media have already painted them out to be. I bet you they can't. Like I I'm really, really love this Denver spot. And Bo Nicks who hasn't played well through the first two weeks, you expect Sean Payton and him to be able to get right here against the Chargers defense. Like I said, they do have injuries to that middle of the field, the linebackers and secondary. And you know Darwin James, obviously one of the best safeties in football. He will be a total game changer for us in the fact that how he plays this and how he affects Bo Nicks. But another game strictly about the number. And we talked that unique spot. Right. It's just it fits Houston too, owing two teams against the spread on the road against divisional foes. It's on an historical run. It's on a 13 no run in this exact spot. So the trends like it, we like it, love the number. And yeah, this is, this is an incredibly, incredibly important game. That sense that it really does feel like it's going to dictate this division where I do think the Chiefs will be there at the end. But Denver, if Denver truly wants to be the guy in this division, the top dog, they have to win. The spoenix has to step up. So yeah, gross. One. Hold your nose. Take it. Plus plus two and a half. It's a couple threes out there, right? Shop around, you get three. Hard Rock's gone to three a couple times here in Jersey, so definitely shop around for our contest though. I love the two and a half. I got no problem. Put it in.

[Chad Milmond]

Wow. That's A. All right, let's think about this for a second. Browns, Eagles, Broncos. Let me just throw out three other games where the lines are to our advantage. We haven't bet them big, but. And they're ugly. Jets on the road at the Bucs. Panthers at home against the Falcons. Saints on the road against the Seahawks. We still need two more games.

[Simon Hunter]

I mean, right now I have Eagles, Cleveland, Denver with Houston as our fourth because we switched out.

[Chad Milmond]

Yeah. All right, so maybe we need one more game.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah. We can talk to you more. I mean, I like Panthers. Am I willing to die in a hill and force this one? And I'm not like, this is.

[Chad Milmond]

Can we ask our. Can we ask our audience to bet the Panthers right now that feels. It feels unfair.

[Simon Hunter]

I know I'm betting it. If they want to ride with me. I. I do think it's a good number. I mean, I'm looking at the live lines here. There's still five and a half's out there. A couple books have moved to four and a half, which I am shocked by. Like, I can't believe our professional group is putting heavy money on this Panthers team. There's just so many other good games. But I told you earlier in the week, there's just a lot of trends that people love in this spot and there's a lot of fading trends on this Atlanta team on the road outdoors. Right. It's a unique spot, I guess if you're looking at this Panthers team. But yeah, it's just tougher. It's like there's other games I like when I bet more. So I get your. I get why you brought them up to Panthers. I agree. We talked during the week. The. The professionals we heard were on the Bucks, especially at the six and a half. Our contest is seven and a half jets and that we cannot overstate the offensive line injuries.

[Chad Milmond]

That's what I'm thinking.

[Simon Hunter]

This. This team. And I hate that though because it is lazy. And I get why people are complaining about it where it's like we know. We. Everyone knows the injuries to this team and obviously if a Mecca Buco was out would have been a big deal for us. The kid has I think three touchdowns through two games. A rookie from Ohio State that the Bucks drafted. He's. Yeah just looks like a game day one game or stud. And that. That would have had me feeling a little more confident because the jets outside of sauce, they're. They're number two. Number three corners are horrible. And this bet really is about short week. Baker just getting into three Car accidents in that game. Right. He was just beat up. And now he's going against a pretty good defensive line with no lineman. Like, to me, this game is just them trying to survive. And the same thing. Mean, you talk about this jets team, they fit the 0 and 2 model, right? They're the 0 and 2 team, desperate, playing for the season with a backup quarterback. So. I know. I hate it. People probably saw coming a mile away we were gonna get stuck on this Jet team. I tried to talk us out of it, being like, there's pros on it, we can avoid it. But because I. After our show, I always put our picture on Thursday. As soon as I saw seven and a half on the Jets, I was like, that's. That's pretty interesting. So we'll. We'll put it as our fifth for right now and we'll keep going through the games here, right? Definitely. That one definitely jumped out to me. Of give me and Chad avoided or is it number two? Good. And, you know, this is just. How can the Bucs overcome all those injuries to their offensive line? It's. It just feels like it's too much at this point.

[Chad Milmond]

It does, it does. I mentioned briefly St. Seahawks. We have the Seahawks in Survivor. I'm not interested in trying to thread the needle on Saints at seven and a half or seven and Seahawks and Survivor. I want to bring up two more games. Chiefs minus five and a half. That's the contest line at six. Most places, Lions plus five and a half on Monday night. It's now down to four and a half. So we're getting a little bit of an edge in both games. Do we like either of them better than the Jets? I'm not sure that I do, but they're available.

[Simon Hunter]

I can't. I think I'm just. Yeah, I just. I'm not confident enough when I don't have enough money on it. Where, like the Chiefs, my chief's bets have honestly just been Moneyline. Like, if I'm. If I'm putting big money into it, I'm just going to totally take out all the risk and just take the money line. It's. I can't trust the Chiefs team with a big number. That's my issue right now, where it's like, I just. I can just see them doing enough. Just the win. They're not. They're not the type of team that can roll teams and blow them out. And really, I've supported the Chiefs bet all week, and I think we both agreed on the five and a half just because we're really betting on Russell Wilson struggling against this Chiefs defense and this being a great bounce back spot for Spags in this defense. So yeah, I, I can't force it in. Like, again, I like Houston better than both those teams.

[Chad Milmond]

Okay.

[Simon Hunter]

Spot. If I had.

[Chad Milmond]

I think I do too with them.

[Simon Hunter]

I would. If. If we're looking at chalk, I know we're not going to do it, but our contest is Colts three and a half. That's an interesting one. And.

[Chad Milmond]

Playing with fire. That is playing with fire.

[Simon Hunter]

Exactly where like I don't want to put it in just because it's a good number. And we've both betted at three.

[Chad Milmond]

Yeah.

[Simon Hunter]

And you know, I was hoping in this contest Arizona will be three. Three and a half. They're one and a half. So another game people have been asking about. I'm on Arizona, but another game we're not going to force in the contest. Especially we don't even know who the quarterback is. Here we are really early Sunday morning. So I don't know, Chad, it feels you're kind of stuck with Denver, Cleveland, Houston, Eagles and then the last one being that damn jets dmf. Seven and a half.

[Chad Milmond]

I think I agree.

[Simon Hunter]

So no. No love for New England from you.

[Chad Milmond]

Well, I just. Maybe I'm making too much of it. But Christian Gonzalez has been ruled out. Do I care that much? Like, he is. He, he is the game changer for them in the back half of the defense. Obviously he hasn't played in the first two games. Does it matter as much as Drake May's ability to, you know, convert and be accurate? I don't know. Like I've actually liked the Patriots all week. I saw some twos popping because probably of Christian Gonzalez. So I don't want to forget about the game. I don't want to overreact to Christian Gonzalez.

[Simon Hunter]

Right.

[Chad Milmond]

Do I feel better about the Patriots at one and a half than I do about the jets at seven and a half, Patriots at one and a half. At home, Tomlin is a road favorite. I mean, I could talk myself into it right now.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah. My hardest thing, I think you just mentioned his name, Drake. Man, that's been my hardest time with that game is he did get play well against Miami. I wouldn't mind letting it play out and see him do it another week and not forcing a bet on a bad number because in our contest it is point, point, half.

[Chad Milmond]

Then I'd rather get the hook at.

[Simon Hunter]

Seven Ugly dogs in Cleveland, eight and a half in the jets plus seven.

[Chad Milmond]

Yeah. All Right. So fair enough. All right. So this is our final five. Our final five. Here's where we land. Cleveland plus eight and a half Houston plus a half Eagles minus three and a half Denver plus two and a half Jets. Jets. Jets. Jets plus seven and a half against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. God, this is going to be a miserable day. Miserable or it's going to be the greatest day ever. That's the beauty of Sunday mornings in.

[Simon Hunter]

The fall and and nothing changed. I know JSN is came up on injury report for the Seahawks. That's their number one receiver and came up with an illness. So you know better than a hamstring. You just hope today he woke up feeling better. I think I saw the one of the biggest survivor contests in America. 40 of the contest picks were on the Seahawks.

[Chad Milmond]

So yeah, we're screwed.

[Simon Hunter]

Chad and I are on the very chalk public side and historical data shows in week three it's again it's, it's crazy looking the numbers. The the upset of the seven and a half point favorites tends to happen here in week three historically. So I am praying, praying this gets to seven six and a half by kickoff for the Seahawks team so we can feel a little better about that stupid trend not mattering for our game. But we're not gonna feel Sam Darnold Survivor Crash Course Here we go Jeff.

[Chad Milmond]

This has been Sharper Square part of the Volume Podcast Network. We will be back on Sharper Square YouTube tonight at 7:30 live to recap all the misery and glory of the day. Once again we have no games that we are putting into our final five for Sunday night and Monday night. So we'll know the answers by the time we get back on the air at 7:30. Watch or listen on YouTube @Sharpersquare. Like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Also download from your favorite pod platform, Apple, Spotify, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe, Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Till tonight. Love you.

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