Sharp or Square — FINAL NFL Week 4 Bets

Podcast: Sharp or Square, iHeartPodcasts and The Volume
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Date: September 28, 2025
Episode Focus: Finalizing best bets for NFL Week 4 contests, discussing sharp vs. square picks, contest strategy, and deeper betting insights for the week’s major games.

Main Theme

Chad Millman and professional bettor Simon Hunter lock in their final five NFL picks for Week 4, analyzing how injury news, line moves, and sharp/square betting dynamics affect their strategy. They deliver a candid “eavesdropping” vibe—a behind-the-scenes look at how expert NFL betters finalize their card after a full week of information, contest line releases, and sharp/public money updates.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Chargers (-5.5) at Giants

Main Topics: Quarterback uncertainty for the Giants, betting against consensus sharp opinion, contest line advantage.

• Chad’s Take: Loves the Chargers even as a “chalk” side, accepting the risk with rookie QB Jackson Dart starting for NYG. Acknowledges how “chalky” it feels but points to matchups.

  “It’s so freaking chalky to be taking a big favorite. I still like [the Chargers] at six and a half. I’ve bet them at six and a half. I am not walking away from that.” (Chad, 04:16)

• Simon’s Analysis: Admits all pros are on the Giants but trusts their read of the number, noting the difference between 5.5 and 6.5 isn’t huge but prefers the better contest line.

  “Every pro I know is on the other side... but try to stay true to ourselves that we’re just playing the number.” (Simon, 04:47) “Chalk does win. Hopefully this is the right time we pick it.” (Simon, 06:03)

• Memorable moment: Both openly admit how nervous they are about the bet even as they justify it.

  “I think it’s one of the games that scared me most all year.” (Chad, 06:27)

2. Buccaneers (+3.5) vs. Eagles

Main Topics: Taking the “hook”, injuries on both sides, selling a possibly-inflated Eagles team, public/smart money split.

• Simon’s Angle: Likes the Bucs with the +3.5 hook, suspicious about why books won’t move off 3.5 despite injury updates. Praises Bucs’ defensive matchups vs. Hurts.

  “I can’t believe they’re giving us the hook still. Even this morning... still three and a half. This is the Sharp side for sure.” (Simon, 07:25) “This Bucs team matches up really well with what the Eagles want to do... Too much disrespect to a Bucs team.” (Simon, 08:33)

• Chad’s Take: Likes but doesn’t love the bet; sees the contest as lacking better options; thinks Eagles are inflated after last week.

  “I like it. I don’t love it. I like the three and a half. I never worry about Baker and injuries because Baker just balls no matter what.” (Chad, 09:30)

3. Lions (-9.5) vs. Browns

Main Topics: Big favorites, line movement, contest strategy, public vs. wise guy money, recency bias.

• Consensus: Both love the Lions side, even if the number feels uncomfortable.

  “Nothing's changed. Know some pros on the other side that like Cleveland and I get it, but... this is like my- probably one of my bigger bets is this Lions side in this spot.” (Simon, 11:04)

• Number Talk: Discuss if the 9.5 vs. 10 is meaningful and why it’s not key to leave the pick off because of a half point.

  “Two percent of NFL games end on nine. Six percent end on 10. So I don't want to talk myself out of this because of a half point difference.” (Chad, 10:39)

• Contest Context: Both are most confident in this play.

  “This is the most confident play we have so far of the three games we've talked about.” (Chad, 11:38)

4. Rams (-3.5) vs. Colts

Main Topics: Market hesitation, matchups, Colts hype, line stickiness, final contest decisions.

• Chad’s View: Has hesitations, waiting for line movement; analyzes both teams’ recent performances and public perceptions.

  “I will not lie. I have not bet the Rams yet... I’m still hoping as we get closer to kickoff, if I gotta eat it and I miss the number and I get the four, I'll live with it.” (Chad, 13:01)

• Simon’s Rationale: Still likes the Rams but holds less conviction than with his other bets; notes the pro money on Colts, but lines holding at 3.5 show Rams support.

  “I think they're being undervalued... this Colts team, they're scary to bet against right now just because they are such a juggernaut.” (Simon, 14:36) “The only hesitation is Davante Adams popped up on the injury report. I still think that's just something they have to report.” (Simon, 16:04)

• Decision: Rams end up making the final five.

  “We're taking the Rams minus three and a half. We're in agreement. We both feel more confident about the Rams.” (Chad, 29:27)

5. Raiders (+1.5) vs. Bears

Main Topics: Contest line value, sharp/square behavior, Bears’ momentum, market tricks.

• Chad’s Interest: Notes the line movement means they have contest value with Raiders as underdogs.

  “It locked at Raiders plus one and a half. That feels like a lot of value to get in the contest for a game that we've generally liked all week.” (Chad, 26:18)

• Simon’s Explanation: Likes matchup for Raiders run game, notes public is heavy on Bears after last week, key “zigzag” spot.

  “Try not to overreact to it. This Raiders line, like I said last week or on Sunday, love them because they were a dog. Like you said in our contest.” (Simon, 26:24) “This is the perfect team in the Bears to get right with your run game. They just, they are bad against the run.” (Simon, 27:01) “Public really believes in one bad team... it's all Bears money.” (Simon, 27:31) “Give me the Raiders plus one and a half. Chad, I'm glad you're on board with this one.” (Simon, 28:19)

6. Other Games Mentioned

• Jaguars at 49ers (+3.5): Both have interest, but lowest conviction of their serious considerations.

  “I bet it. I’m on the 49ers, but this is probably my least bet of all these four o’clock games.” (Simon, 23:24)

• Ravens at Chiefs (+2.5): Heavy debate. Simon loves his model’s number, but Chad is nervous about the side. Ultimately, Rams replace Chiefs in the contest five.

  “This is probably going to be one of my three biggest bets of the week. I just, I really, really love this. This Chief side in this number.” (Simon, 25:12) “I don’t mind being overruled. I just want to make sure that we’re having the full conversation.” (Chad, 25:45)

7. Survivor Pool Advice

• Pick: Texans (0–3) over Titans

  “We’re, it’s gross, it’s risky, it’s by far the riskiest pick you can make this week... but you’ve got to trust the situation.” (Simon, 30:20)

Final Five Picks (Contest Lines)

1. Chargers –5.5 @ Giants
2. Buccaneers +3.5 vs. Eagles
3. Lions –9.5 vs. Browns
4. Rams –3.5 vs. Colts
5. Raiders +1.5 vs. Bears

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• On being “chalky” this week:

  “It's very chalky this week. It's another pick I just. I love. That's chalky.” (Simon, 11:08)

• On betting against sharp consensus:

  “It’s the Squares pick we could, we could possibly make. Every pro I know is on the other side. And me and Chad know this though. Every week they're going to be on the Giants side. So try not to overthink it.” (Simon, 04:50)

• Nervous realness:

  “Oftentimes when you get locked in, in a game, you all of a sudden realize come Sunday morning, how did I not see this? How did I not see the other side?” (Chad, 06:27)

• On the Survivor pick:

  “It’s gross. But Houston, the 0–3 Houston team is our Survivor pick this week.” (Simon, 30:52)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [04:16] — Chad’s case for Chargers as chalk
• [06:27] — Chad shares nerves about Chargers
• [07:25] — Simon can’t believe Bucs still +3.5
• [11:04] — Simon loves Lions big favorite
• [13:01] — Chad on betting the Rams, market hesitations
• [16:04] — Simon addresses last-minute Rams injury concerns
• [23:24] — Simon on 49ers-Jags: least conviction bet
• [25:12] — Simon lays out his case for Chiefs but defers to Chad
• [26:18] — Chad identifies contest value on Raiders
• [27:01] — Simon explains why Bears are perfect matchup for Raiders run game
• [30:20] — Simon’s Survivor pick explanation

Episode in a Nutshell

Chad and Simon deliver a candid breakdown of their five favorite NFL Week 4 contest picks, balancing sharp/square considerations, matchup breakdowns, line value, market moves, and contest-specific strategy. They share their strongest convictions (Lions, Chargers) and most pressing doubts (fearing sharp consensus, public perception). The episode is both educational and honest about the mental gymnastics (and nerves) that go into high-level NFL betting decisions.

Tone & Style:
Conversational, self-reflective, and unfiltered—with genuine back and forth, mixed conviction levels, and an open look at the psychology and math behind each play.

Final Five Contest Picks:

• Chargers –5.5
• Buccaneers +3.5
• Lions –9.5
• Rams –3.5
• Raiders +1.5

Survivor Pick: Texans (0–3) vs. Titans

For full context, banter, and live recap, check out the show’s YouTube or podcast platforms after Sunday’s games.