← Sharp or Square
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- [00:01]
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- [01:03]
Simon Hunter
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Simon Hunter
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- [02:03]
Rob Gronkowski
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- [02:06]
Simon Hunter
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- [02:35]
Rob Gronkowski
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- [02:38]
Simon Hunter
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- [02:51]
Chad Millman
Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock bet. We are part of The Volume podcast network. This is the NFL betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined by my co host, my bff, my companion, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
- [03:13]
Simon Hunter
Good morning, Chad. How are we doing?
- [03:15]
Chad Millman
I am great, brother. This is the stripped down in the room eavesdropping version of Sharper Square. Simon and I are going to try to nail down the five picks, the final five picks. Now that we've seen injuries, we've seen line moves, everything we need to make the best possible decision. Simon, are you ready to it? All right. These are the games we zeroed in on the other day. And, and for better, for worse, not a ton of moves that have been impacting I think our decisions on the field and in the markets. Let's start with the Chargers. So the chargers are now 6 and a half at the New York Giants. We know Jackson Dart is starting for the Giants. This was Chad Loves and I think it's one of the more controversial moves that we made all week. Just because we don't know what's going to happen with Jackson Dark. Jackson Dart as the new starting quarterback for the Giants. And it's so freaking chalky to be taking a big favorite. I still like him at six and a half. I've bet him at six and a half. I am not walking away from that. The good news is in our contest that we play the Chargers at five and a half, which makes me feel even better. Even though, you know, the percentage difference is not that big, I still like it at five and a half.
- [04:45]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And I'm gonna trust you and trust the number. I think we're both on the same page where. Yeah, exactly. Exactly. Right. Where we know Dark can come in and be the spark and you know, do some of those Chargers defense they just can't prepare for. Right. This is a unique opportunity for him. They have no film on them and you know, like Chad said, it's. It's the Squares pick we could, we could possibly make. Every pro I know is on the other side. And me and Chad know this though. Every week they're going to be on the Giant side. So try not to overthink it. Try to stay true to ourselves that we're just playing the number here. And I feel like you nailed it. If this was six and a half, I could probably talk us out of it. But a five and a half with that little bit of wiggle room could can lie to myself and say at least we're getting a good number here. And I'm just happy it's a road, it's a team on the road. Because right now, like Chad knows, I'm just in love with these home teams right now. So chalk on the road in this spot. I'll, I'll, I'll go with you on it. It's, it's, it's a unique spot because I just think this Chargers defense, even with all their injuries, you know, they, they should be able to handle this kid dart. And you know the questions right now, the. What the pros are attacking, the giant side is the injuries to the Chargers offensive line. And you saw last week, you can't get after Herbert, but you just see it being a big Hampton kind of game where they just lean on the running game, finally take it out of Herbert's hand, and this is going to be an interesting game to watch. I'm not going to lie, Chad. So five and a half. I am on board with you. Even at 6, I bet the Chargers. So I'm invested. Like, I'm invested in this chalk side. And we say it all the time. Chalk does win. Hopefully on this, this is the right time. We pick it.
- [06:27]
Chad Millman
I think it's one of the games that scared me most all year, even more than the Eagles, you know, as the home favorites against the Rams last week. I've loved this game and hated this game. Oftentimes when you get locked in, in a game, you all of a sudden realize come Sunday morning, how did I not see this? How did I not see the other side? And I'm worried about this for the Chargers, but we're there. We're in five and a half in the contest. Six and a half is the bet that I've made. You made it at 6. Philadelphia, Tampa, we've been talking about it all week. Beat up Bucs team at home, getting the ever important hook. Beat up Eagles team on the road, getting the early money that pushed this up. It's three and a half everywhere. It's three and a half in our contest. We're going to, we're going to want to be on the Bucks and Baker at the hook. Any reason to be walking away from this right now?
- [07:25]
Simon Hunter
The only one I can think of is it's too easy. I can't believe they're giving us the hook still. Like, even this morning, I woke up and I was thinking, you know, no way. It's still three and a half. Or I should say, on Saturday, I woke up thinking, there's just me three And a half. And then last night, late night, I was like, okay, this will move to three now that all these guys are getting cleared. Still doesn't budge. Still three and a half. And the Eagles are still taking a ton of money. So yeah, this is the Sharp side for sure. The square side is the Eagles, but the Sharps are on the Eagles as well. There's. There's some respected money clearly on the Eagle side that's keeping this number propped up. So like we said, we're just going to trust the number Eagles, you know, warranted. They're the defending champs. They're really talented. The, the Bucks are banged up. We know that. We know we're Ben into right. We got Baker that has a banged up tricep, all these things. He's got injuries, you know, Godwin's first game back. But I just like the matchups and defensively I like the matchups for the Bucs team. I think that's something the public is overlooking, that that's the strength. This Bucks team matches up really well with what the Eagles want to do and we'll see. Maybe Hertz can. Hertz can do it again and put the ball downfield, but I think he's going to see that Todd Bulls defense which is always giving him problems. You know, the pushback we've. I've heard from fans, especially locally after I do the show is that the Eagles didn't have A.J. brown for four of those matchups and that's a big difference. And I agree that is a big deal. But you just look at the way Todd Bowles plays hurts. It feels like he has his number and it all starts with via stopping the run. And yeah, I'm really just playing the number here. Three and a half. This feels like too many points, too much disrespect to a Bucs team. So I know it's scary. Like me and Chad talked about, we're betting these two first team. We just talked about both these teams are 30 against the spread or I guess the Bucks didn't cover last week. But Chad knows, I mean we're bet we're betting undefeated teams right now for our first two picks. But I just love the number. I don't know about you, I just love the number with Baker in this spot that if he does lose, I just can't see behind more than three. He just they. He keeps games close. You can never count them out. So the Eagles want to beat us here, they're going to have to blow out this Bucks team, which I Just don't see happening.
- [09:30]
Chad Millman
Yeah, look, it's. To me, this is a little bit like you in the Chargers. I like it. I don't love it. I like the three and a half. I like the Tristan Wurfs. The left tackle is back. Considering the other injuries on Tampa Bay. I like that Godwin is back. Considering Evans is out. I never worry about Baker and injuries because Baker just balls no matter what. And I do think it's. It's a good spot to fade the Eagles, who are probably to me a little bit inflated after what happened last week. That's fair against the Rams. So I don't love it. I like it. I don't know that we have five better games, to be honest. So that's. That's also what I'm thinking about. Cleveland at Detroit, the game was at eight and a half. It got up to nine. It got up to nine and a half. In some places it's ten in our contest right now, it's at nine and a half. I'm just going to say one thing. I'm not sure that matters. Like we can talk about. We wish we were getting an eight and a half. We wish we were getting a nine. Two percent of NFL games end on nine. Six percent end on 10.
- [10:38]
Simon Hunter
Right.
- [10:39]
Chad Millman
So I don't want to talk myself out of this because of a half point difference in a number that isn't as key as the 10, which we're still under. And I know wise guys have been betting this up at the nine and a half because there's a lot of places this number is a 10. So it was our brass balls. Are we crazy for still wanting the Lions at nine and a half?
- [11:05]
Simon Hunter
No, this would be a quick one. Love the lines. Nothing's changed. Know some pros on the other side that like Cleveland and I get it, but I, I think our early read in the week was right. It's still right today and I'll own it if you don't. If you're not as confident. This one, I'm really confident I'll own it later tonight if this doesn't come through. But I. This is like my. Probably one of my bigger bets is this line side in this spot. And you know, there are nine and a half out there, people. So go grab it, get it below the 10. And yeah, I love it for our contest. It's. It's very. Like we said, we're very chalky this week. It's another pick. I just. I love. That's chalky.
- [11:39]
Chad Millman
Yeah. I actually am with You. I totally love it. I'm trying to. Trying to figure out why I don't love it. I'm trying to talk myself out of it because it's a big number and it's chalky, but it's just. It keeps moving in the lion's direction. And it was moving before Sunday morning when all the public is piling in. It's been moving that way all week with wise guy money. A little bit of pushback, but generally wise guy money pushing it up. So if we're getting under the 10, I feel like this is. This is the most confident play we have so far of the three games we've talked about. Easily the most confident play that we have.
- [12:19]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. Really respected money. Came in heavy on the Browns once they hit ten and a half. So they'll let you know the pros they are on the Browns. But I just, I. I really like this line side and the fact that a lot of books right now are heavy Cleveland side just shows the public is, you know, they're bought in on that Cleveland team. Right. They just. That was such a huge win last week. I'm shocked to see that there is so much public love for that Cleveland side. And this is going to be, like we said, there's going to be a zigzag teams. This is a prime example of a zigzag team. This Browns team at home on grass is going to be a totally different team than, especially in this spot indoors on this turf where we've seen this Lions team. They're humming right now. So I'm glad we're in sync here, brother.
- [13:00]
Chad Millman
Also, the one thing I've been thinking a lot about this game, obviously it's my biggest bet of the week, too. Probably at a bigger scale than you, Simon, because that's the kind of numbers I play. But the one thing that people are forgetting, we loved the Browns last week. We loved the spot last week. The packers had crazy injuries on the offensive line throughout that game that made them completely ineffective. So I don't want that to be forgotten as a reason why I'm liking the Lions so much as I think they're healthy, they're playing at home, they're on. They're on turf. It's just a better spot to me for the Lions than the Browns last week when we nailed it. Indy at the Los Angeles Rams. Three and a half across the board. It has not come down. I will not lie. I have not bet the Rams yet. I'm still hoping as we get closer to kickoff, if I got to eat it and I miss the number and I get the four. I'll live with it. And it pushes fine, but I'm really trying to be patient and wait for the three. We're not going to have that option in the contest. It's three and a half, you know. Do we believe the Rams are the team that could have been beaten the Eagles and are three and oh, if they hadn't been so conservative and the Eagles hadn't found their rhythm? Do we believe the Colts are the team that could be two and one if they hadn't gotten that penalty against the Broncos at the end of the game and being able to kick an extra field goal attempt to win the game against the Broncos and have otherwise beaten up on bad teams. Are we going to have to completely readjust our power ratings after this game? Simon, this is one of your biggest bets. Are we still into the Rams?
- [14:36]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, still love them. But same as you, where I have other games I've bet a lot on as well and I like them just as much. And if we do take the Rams out, I'd be okay with it because there's other games I do love. Like I said, I, I didn't realize that I'm very heavy on these four o' clock games and all these home teams. So yeah, this is just another team. I think they're being undervalued. But like we talked about, this Colts team, they're scary to bet against right now just because they are such a juggernaut and we see a million ways that they could keep this close. But I just have to trust that they are a better team that have played much tougher teams and we're selling a Colts team that is at its peak level. But yeah, Chad, it's. I get your hesitation. Like you said, I'm shocked the threes then pop just because there's so much love and respect right now with this Colts team in the professional community. I thought for sure they'd bet this down. I mean, handful of books right now. It's all Colts money and this number is just held even randomly. It'd pop three and then it'd go right back up to three and a half. So I get your hesitation. I have a little bit hesitation as well. Like I guess this would be our fifth one right now in my opinion that I'm looking at our, our five picks. But I'm still confident, I still believe in it. I just, I have a hard time trying to keep selling you on it where it's like you know where I'm at. I just think the culture overrated a little bit here, a little inflated on the line and that the Rams have the weapons to attack this team and the only hesitation is Devonte Adams popped up on the injury report. I still think that's just something they have to report. I have no doubt he's gonna be playing today. So to me, the Rams offense full go bounce back spot after a brutal loss last week.
- [16:19]
Chad Millman
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- [18:09]
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- [19:11]
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- [21:41]
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- [22:34]
Chad Millman
All right, so on the fence about the Rams. We still like the Chargers. We still like the Bucks. We still like the Lions. So these are some games we can choose from. And tell me if I'm missing anything. Jacksonville at San Francisco. San Francisco is three and a half. We've liked it at three. We like that Brock Purdy is playing. We're less concerned about the lack of Nick Bosa, even though he's been driving the pressure for this Niners defense. So obviously they have a lot to prove against the Jacksonville pass game that if they aren't dropping the ball, can potentially be effective. To me, this is a bet on Salah, a bet against Trevor Lawrence, a bet on Purdy, a bet against the Jags, who we don't think have played competition and aren't that good yet. But do we like him better than the Rams? Do we like him better than any other teams at 3 1/2?
- [23:24]
Simon Hunter
Now, like again, I told you, I'm heavy on the four o' clock games. This is probably my. I bet it. I'm on the 49ers, but this is probably my least bet of all these four o' clock games.
- [23:31]
Chad Millman
Baltimore at Kansas City. I gotta tell you, I don't want to do this one now.
- [23:38]
Simon Hunter
You're scared of it?
- [23:39]
Chad Millman
I'm a little bit scared. Well, I also think there's one more game that I want to talk about that I think might just be better value.
- [23:46]
Simon Hunter
Right?
- [23:47]
Chad Millman
But if you're super confident. Tell me.
- [23:52]
Simon Hunter
No, I am. Like, I'm confident since that, like, I believe in this number, believe in this team. The matchup for the Chiefs and that this Ravens team. I know people think the Chiefs have more problems right now, but I think the Ravens have more problems. And this, this number just scares me for the exact same reason as you. It's. We're betting against Lamar where we know he has the better offense right now, and we're kind of betting on them that, you know, they easily could be undefeated. Right? A couple Fluky fumbles by Derek Henry. So are we betting a bad number? Could mean Chad be having a three and a half and we're taking a two and a half where it's not that great of a number. It's just. It's an interesting line and it's. It's very divided where the public is very, very heavy on this Raven side and once again makes me more confident in my chief side. And I tweeted last night, I think it was one in the morning, the number went to two at Hard Rock. So some really respected money came in, took this number down to two at Hard Rock, and like, I'm here in Jersey right now, it's back up to two and a half. But that just shows that the pros, they're all aligned, they're all on this chief side. The public is very aligned. They're all on this Ravens side. So matchup wise, I think Worthy coming back is a huge deal. And I just got to believe in Mahomes in this scenario that, yeah, that Eagles team that beat them, you saw there's a million other ways that the Chiefs could have covered. Right? Like, they kind of gave that game away. So I don't know. I just have to believe in this Chiefs team and believe the number. It's just I have it at a pick. It's two and a half, Chad. So to me, I get where you're coming from to like, this is based on my model. Whereas a human. I'm the same point as you where it's like I'm sick to my stomach. Can we find other games to love? But unfortunately for me, this is probably going to be one of my three biggest bets of the week. I just, I really, really love this. This Chief side in this number. But yeah, like I said, there's other games I love too. So if you don't love that one, we'll find. We can find something else to get in here if you don't love it.
- [25:46]
Chad Millman
Well, look, I don't mind being overruled. I just want to make sure that we're having the full conversation. So the other one I want to talk about and then I want to hear what you have to say. Chicago at the Raiders. This is a tricky one because the line had been bouncing back and forth, back and forth all week. It's now Raiders minus one and a half. As recently as yesterday, it was. It was essentially pick maybe Raiders minus a half in the contest. It locked at Raiders plus one and a half. That feels like a lot of value to get in the contest for a game that we've generally liked all week.
- [26:19]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, and I don't. It's just like the Bears last week. I told you the Bears line had flipped. The Bears were still a bad line last week. I didn't really care because I'm kind of learning here. The, the. These contests try to scare you off when these lines do flip like this and it's like, try not to overreact to it. This Raiders line, like I said last week or on Sunday, love them because they were a dog like you said in our contest. Now they are still technically a dog, but it's really just about the matchup. Like, I just think there's many ways for this, this defense on the Raiders to attack. You know, Caleb Williams, that's really good when he has no pressure. When he does have pressure, he seems to struggle. And offensively they've had a really tough go with running the ball. This Raiders team, this is the perfect team in the Bears to get right with your run game. They just, they are bad against the run. So I love the matchup. I love the matchup for this Raiders team and I hate, hate to do it to my guy Chad, having ruined against his own team, but I'm ruined against my own team this week. So I feel like it's, it's fair enough to ask him to take this number. And yeah, if you like this more than the Chiefs, I got no issue with us getting this in because it is a better line value. And you know, it's, it's a good spot for this Raiders team. It's two bad teams and the public really believes in one bad team. And it's clear. Like, I'm looking at the splits right now. It's all Bears money. So it's not, it's not the spot you want to be. The Bears were last week. When no one believes in the Bears, they're left for dead. I think we're starting to learn that's when you want to Back this Bears team. Not when they're coming off a huge win and everyone's blowing smoke up their ass for a week. And this Raiders team with Pete Carroll, this is the, this is. Like I said earlier in the year, there's gonna be spots. We're gonna want to back this Raiders team. This feels like a spot where veteran quarterback, veteran coach, they should bounce back here. And if they lose this game, I mean, it's. It's crazy sake of September. But your. Your season is officially over. Vegas, if you cannot win this game in this because your division's brutal like they have to, you have to beat the Bears at home in this spot. So, yeah, give. Give me the Raiders plus one and a half. Chad, I'm glad you're on board with this one.
- [28:20]
Chad Millman
All right, so to me, it's Chargers plus minus five and a half, Bucks plus three and a half. Lions minus nine and a half. Raiders plus one and a half for our fifth. Unless there's ones I'm missing. We're debating between Rams minus three and.
- [28:36]
Simon Hunter
A half or Chiefs.
- [28:37]
Chad Millman
Chiefs plus two and a half. Who am I missing in. In a quick 30 seconds?
- [28:42]
Simon Hunter
No, that's. That's literally the original five I had in switch the. The Raiders for the Chiefs. So that was. I put our five in on Thursday after our show. That's what I try to stay true to who we are. And I like it. We're staying with our picks. The only one we're really wavering on is our Chiefs or Raiders and we're going Raiders. So now it's Chiefs or Rams. And I'll leave it up to you because again, I like both sides. You know, to me, I guess the one I feel more confident about at the end of the day it would be taking Stafford against Daniel Jones and assuming that the Colts team could falter completely.
- [29:21]
Chad Millman
Agree. Like when I thought you were going to say you leave it up to me and I was going to say, yeah, whatever one.
- [29:26]
Simon Hunter
Do you want to go?
- [29:27]
Chad Millman
No, no, I'm. I want to leave it up to you. We're taking the Rams minus three and a half. We're in agreement. You both. We both feel more confident about the Rams. So here are the final five in the contest. These are the contest lines. LA Chargers minus five and a half. It is six and a half now. I still like the Chargers at six and a half. If you are listening or watching. Chargers six and a half in the contest, it's five and a half bucks plus three and a half contest. And otherwise Detroit minus nine and a half contest and otherwise Rams minus three and a half across the board contest. Raiders plus one and a half. We're taking advantage of the contest that we play in. Again, this is a contest, private contest. Simon and I play in that. The Raiders locked at one and a half point underdogs. We're taking it. All right, that's it, brother.
- [30:20]
Simon Hunter
Well, and we'll just say we're Nothing's changed around Houston for Survivor people. I know it's, it's, we're, it's gross, it's risky. It's by far the riskiest pick you can make this week. But like we said, we got to trust the situation. This is a desperate team. Divisional game at home against the Tennessee team that has a bunch of problems. I know the coach said he gave up calling offensive plays whatever he's doing. I don't know if that's the fix. They just have so many issues. So I know it's, it's GROSS. But Houston, the 013 Houston team is our Survivor pick this week.
- [30:52]
Chad Millman
All right, this has been Sharper Square part of the Volume Podcast network. We will be back on Sharper Square on YouTube tonight, live at 7:30 or as soon as the late afternoon games end. To recap all the misery and glory of the day, watch or listen on YouTube @Sharpersquare. Like this video? Subscribe Also download us from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you get your pods rate. Review, subscribe, leave 5 stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Till next time.
- [31:20]
Simon Hunter
Love you.
- [31:29]
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- [32:28]
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- [33:00]
Rob Gronkowski
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- [33:51]
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