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Ryan Seacrest
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Chad Millman
Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock Bet. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined by my co host, my bff, my companion, my compadre professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello Simon Chad.
Simon Hunter
I made the terrible decision. I went to the Phillies game last night, even though the last Phillies game I went to was the no hitter against Houston in the World Series. I said I'd never go again. Got offered to go and I had the opportunity to see Ohtani, which I always, you know, in my mind, the greatest baseball player ever. I was like, I gotta go. Feeling good. 3. Nothing. Rob Thompson. Playoff baseball is decided by these managers. Every move the man made was wrong. Phillies lose 5 3. Honestly, almost as bad as a no hitter walking out of the stadium. And I, as bad as my life is, I feel thankful I'm not a Phillies Penn State fan because that is truly the worst life you could have yesterday.
Chad Millman
That is a terrible parlay to have lost yesterday. I'm whispering a little bit when I announce you because I'm doing a road game. I'm in College Park, Maryland. We had Parents Weekend for my son who's a freshman. We walked out of the Maryland game yesterday as the fourth quarter was starting and they were up 20 to nothing. It's a 15 minute walk from the stadium to our hotel and Maryland had given up a three touchdown lead in the biggest game they've had in a generation. Ended up losing. 24, 20. They were losing by the time we got back to our hotel. We're still trying to figure out what happened. So we both had our hearts broken yesterday. But guess what? We do get to bring good news to all the Sharp or Square listeners. Viewers, huge announcement. As many of you know, the past couple years in the previous iteration of the show, we've run a totally free to play NFL Pick' em contest. We've given away big, big prizes because we had to launch Sharper Square so quickly before week one. We ran out of time before we could launch this contest. Thanks to our magnificent benefactors at Hard Rock bet, the brilliant people at Hard Rock bet, we can finally announce that a free Free to play Sharper Square NFL Pick' Em contest will be launching in a few weeks. Get excited, folks. We can't give out the exact date. There's still some logistics to work out that we want to nail down before we give out the exact date. But don't worry. Thanks to everybody for your patience. Stay tuned. Simon, this is the stripped down in the room eavesdropping version of Sharper Square in which you and I will try to nail down our final five picks. Now that we've got injuries, we've got latest line moves. Are you ready, my brother? All right. These are the games that we zeroed in on the other day, reminder to everybody, we loved the Rams on Thursday night. This is already a loss for us. We're moving on. Honestly, I'd play it again. I play it again every time. Home team, short week against a team with a backup qb, two backup wide receivers missing its defensive end, got a good number that moved in our direction. We're not changing that decision.
Simon Hunter
Things happen. I think they had, what was it, two fumbles. Their defense just played terrible. And, you know, that's why we love what we do. It's all, at the end of the day, madness and randomness. And yeah, the biggest thing to come out of that game, obviously it hurts us in the contest was people unfortunately like you. Chad took the Rams in Survivor and that is just. That's why Survivor's so tough. It's like that was such a. They had to lose that way, that game in a million different ways for you to lose that Survivor bet. So, yeah. Awful, awful way to start our week 01.
Chad Millman
I feel like an adult because at halftime of that game I'm like, you know what? I got a big day tomorrow. I got to get up early. I'm just going to bed. I saved myself three hours of misery by going to bed at halftime of that game and I woke up, saw we lost in overtime. I'm like, well, I'm so glad I wasn't watching that. Another game. It's going to be controversial. Houston Texans right now are one and a half point favorites over the Baltimore Ravens in the contest we currently play. This won't be true when we have the contest for Sharper Square. In the contest we currently play that line locked at three and a half. We can only play the lines as they're given to us. Those are the rules. Obviously, we're going to take Houston at plus three and a half, given the way the lines have moved over the course of the week. Lamar Jackson and. And this was a move that you predicted on Tuesday, as Simon says. Do we still put it in the contest?
Simon Hunter
Yep. Lock it in. That's a quick one. Three and a half. Gotta take it for Houston.
Chad Millman
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints -1½ for the Saints right now. Look, you mentioned on Thursday this is going to be one of your biggest bets. I went against all my beliefs partially because of what you said. Even though the Saints opened it plus two and they are now one and a half. I went against all my beliefs. I've bet on the Saints as one and a half point favorites. We've seen this come back to Bite us with the line flip. Even a couple times this year. We saw it with the Ravens game opening against the Bills. We saw it with the Raiders game against the Bears. We had. We had plus one and a half in that one, so we got lucky. But man, this is a dangerous, dangerous catch. A falling knife scenario.
Simon Hunter
Yeah, still. Still on it. But I'm like you. I, I'm. I'm leaking confidence as the week goes along because it is the Saints and it's. It's a little scary, but the only thing I could take out of that makes me feel a little better is the sharper. Books are still at minus two and a half on this Saints team, so at least we know the professional money is on our side. But I'm getting a little worried it's become. I thought it would be more love for this giant side and most guys I've talked to just seem like they're on. On the Saints with us. So this, this might be the fifth or sixth one, right?
Chad Millman
Wait, why are you leaking confidence if everyone's with us?
Simon Hunter
You don't want. You don't want that. You don't want to be that. I want to at least hear one, one or two other guys breaking me, breaking it down. Why the right side is the Giants. Everyone has the same thought process as us, though. You're. You're fading a rookie QB after a huge emotional win at home against an incredibly desperate Saints team. So again, I'm still on the Saints time. You just said I'm heavily invested into it. Will it be one of our four today? I don't know.
Chad Millman
Well, that's what it's going to come down to. Like, I. We got a couple games in here that I think are very much on the edge and I want to be very thoughtful about this. So I'm going to have. I have a comment at the end based on something you said on Thursday that we'll get to Dallas at the New York Jets. Jets are currently one and a half. This was our brass balls bet of the week. I think it takes a true set of brass balls that can sustain a maximum kick to the groin because we will suffer for 60 minutes watching this game. We like the matchups. We like the situation. We like the jets offense against this miserable Cowboys defense. We like the spot for the jets looking bad in prime time versus a Dallas team that looked magnificent in a tie in prime time. We got the value. If you were listening during the week, you were able to get the jets at a much, much better number. I think in the Contest. The jets are at plus two and a half.
Simon Hunter
I love it, but it's the same exact thing as the Saints. Every pro I've talked to is right there with us, but luckily for us, every public guy I've talked to is on the Cowboys. So, yeah, this is pros versus Joe's. Good number, good spot. I already know a thousand different ways we're going to lose this bet. Yeah, but we're getting a great number. Got to lean to it. This is what we do. Plus two and a half. I'm glad that I, you know, we talked. There's like three games we debated for our brass balls bet and I'm happy we settled on this one because it obviously was the best number this week that we gave out. It's key number of two and a half. The pros have come in incredibly heavy on it. I mean, even. Even now there's some books popping plus one on this jet side. So even if you missed the two and a half, you want to join us? I don't hate the plus one and a half, but I would not take the plus one.
Chad Millman
Yeah, that's. This line has completely moved to one and a half and one. So I'm with you. I would still take the jets at one and a half. So we're not just giving away a bad line here. Jets feel like they're going to be in for us, to be honest. Kansas City at the Jacksonville Jaguars, mostly three and a half. At Hard Rock, it's three. It's still three and a half everywhere else. This was Chad Loves. You were very reluctantly on this train only after hearing what the wise guys had said in sharp calls and then admittedly looking a bit more at the Jacksonville defense and wondering if you have gotten too biased on the Chiefs. But. But we do not have to like this. I don't. You don't like this as one of our five. I don't think it will only be here because you want to blame me for the entertainment value, which I am all for. Here's what I would say to my comment earlier the other day. You're like, you got to nut up. We got to put this in the contest. Here's my take on the contest. The only pride I get from the contest is finishing with a winning week. I don't care if it's a pick you made that I was against. I don't care if it's a pick I made that you were against. I just want to finish with a winning week. So if we don't like this and as much as we like the other two picks that we're going to talk about, including our Rock and a Hard Place Hard Rock bet of the week. I could care less if we put it in.
Simon Hunter
We should care. It's your bet. So it. To me.
Chad Millman
I don't care. I don't care.
Simon Hunter
Well, I already had it in the contest because to me, it's. It's a game that if you believe in, you should take a stand on. It's your favorite bet of the week. You gave it on Tuesday. I don't have a position on it, but I told you, the smart money agrees with you. Um, and you're getting a good number. It's three and a half in the contest, so like I said, if you believe in it, you love it. I'm happy to put it in because I think it's a good number. And I'm already down.01 this week on that Rams one. So I'll. I'll offer it to you. If you want it in, it can get in, no problem.
Chad Millman
This is. This is not how we're doing it. It's not about pride. It's about getting to a winning number. And right now.
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I want winners. Give me a winner. If this is your winner of the week, give it to me. If you're already scared of it.
Chad Millman
We're already on one. We got to win three or four games over the next two days, so we can only afford to lose one more game. We got two more games I want to discuss.
Simon Hunter
Can't think that way.
Chad Millman
Well, listen. Well, we have to think that way because that's the reality. We have to be intellectual.
Simon Hunter
You're too micro right now. You're too micro. You're not a truth like sports betters. Do not think the way you're talking right now. I'll be honest with you, Chad. You're sounding very immature.
Chad Millman
I'm not immature. I'm just a dude who was hanging out at the Turf, drinking beers in College park till late on Friday night with college kids. That's not immature. Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. It's not just a great sportsbook app. They also give you crazy stats. Check out these streaks from Hard Rock Bet Stats Hub. You can find live odds to bet on all of these streaks in The Hard Rock bet Apple. Minnesota's Adam Thielen has recorded 21 plus receiving yards in 32 straight October games. Yes, 32. Jalen Hurts has scored a touchdown in six consecutive games against the AFC Stats like these are just a tap away when you open the Hard Rock Bet app, if you haven't tried your first bet on Hard Rock Bet, there's still time for you to get $150 in bonus bets. If you win, just place a five dollar bet and if it hits, you get not only your winnings, but $150 in bonus bets. Plus on hard rock Bet, you can get a parlay boost for today's games. There's new promos every day. Boost your same game parlay or SGPMX Senior Bet Pays extra winnings. There's new promos every day, so if you're listening to this later, just open the app and check out what you've got. Any day of the week Payable in bonus bets. Not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida. Offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states. Must be 21 and over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1888 admit it. In Indiana, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-809 with it gambling problem, call 1-800- gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee and Virginia.
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Simon Hunter
Lenovo.
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Chad Millman
Grab a pair at jbl.com denver@philadelphia this number's moving in the direction that we would want it to. It's at four and a half in most places. You can get it at four. Simon this is our rock and a hard place Hard Rock bet of the week. I wanna rock Rock. We're both on the Broncos. The pros are on the Broncos. It's a matchup of a relatively unlucky team in the Broncos versus what has been a very lucky team in the Eagles. Do we put this in instead of the Saints? Do we put this in instead of the Jags?
Simon Hunter
I could get there putting this over the Saints. It's another game though. That's like I don't get why I went back up to four and a half. It went down to three and a half at every book.
Chad Millman
Yeah, I know. Yeah. I know.
Simon Hunter
And it's been bumped up to four, four and a half at every other book. So it's another game where I'm a little scared that there's a blind spot here. And, you know, looking at the five I put in, this was one of the original five I did put in. So, like, again, I'm. It's tough for me to move off some certain games. This one I'm trying to be open to moving off of because I, I'm. I like it too much. Where once again, we. Everyone knows there's something wrong with this Eagles team. This is a good matchup for Denver. This is a great number for Denver. What are we missing here? So I'm like, yeah, I wish I had someone else here that could talk me out of it. But I like the four and a half. But if I had to choose between this or the Saints, I would definitely feel more comfortable taking a four and a half.
Chad Millman
Yeah, I mean, I'd be more comfortable taking a four and a half with a really good defense versus a number that move from plus two to minus one and a half and a quarterback who has never won a game.
Simon Hunter
Never won in his career.
Chad Millman
In his career. Right. All right, last game that we can think about and then we'll make a call. Washington at the LA Chargers. This was the second. Simon says you were prescient on the Texans. You said take the Texans at +3 and a half on Tuesday. The show was live for an hour, maybe two at the most, when that game moved because of all the Lamar Jackson noise to making the Texans a favorite. Jaden Daniels will be playing. Most of the Chargers starting offensive line will not. I'm starting to like this game more than any other game we are picking right now. And I know if we leave it out, we will lose whatever game we keep in its place.
Simon Hunter
That's fair. It's. It's two and a half still in our contest and it's three.
Chad Millman
There's several two and a half and three out there right now.
Simon Hunter
Yeah, yeah. For people that are betting, I'd grab the three. Obviously for us, we're talking the two and a half. And my only fear here is this is the exact same situation as I made everyone take Denver a couple weeks ago, where it's like. It's a. It's a good line, a good spot, Denver's defense. And I guess Bo Nix blew it at the end. Right. And we're putting a lot of faith that Daniels won't blow it in the end here. And I don't know if you saw the footage of him with that knee brace on and him moving, he's not the same for this line. Even with McLaren out has not budged. That's the most interesting part to me that this two and a half is held because when I gave it out, I gave it out thinking, okay, this could easily drop if all these guys get cleared. And you know, this could get down to one and a half. It went the other way. There was a point at time where it got to three and a half. So the fact that a couple of these very public books have been taking non stop Chargers money and they're holding at two and a half, it's no different than us backing the Chiefs last week and for good measure, the, the Jags this week. Yeah, like this is. The books are taking positions on these lines. I agree with them. My model agrees with them. It's all about, like I said to you, nutting up. That's the same thing here where it's like I'm leaking confidence on the Saints and I'm leaking confidence on this game. But I've been betting both of them multiple days in a row and it's like, okay, I'm right there with you. Where it's like we have a good number, a good spot in this commander's team against a Chargers team that's still being valued. Like they are pretty healthy like this. I just wanted to check my model. If the Chargers were fully healthy and Washington was fully healthy, what my model would make that line. My Chargers at minus six and a half in the spot. So I've taken three and a half, four points just to the books line off my line of what they would be healthy. So it's just an interesting number where I could be undervaluing this Chargers team right now. But I don't think I am. I think they are just not the team we all thought they were even just two, three weeks ago with all these injuries they've had. And we're putting faith in the number with the books here. Honestly, if we're back in the commanders here, Chad. So obviously we both wish this was three and a half. We're taking two and a half. I would still play it if I once again, if I had to take this over the Saints, I would. If I had to take it over Denver, that's. That's a tough conversation. Same with the Jags.
Chad Millman
Why don't we do this? Let's take the Saints out. We keep mentioning every time I would take this over the Saints, I would take this over the Saints. Clearly, we don't have a ton of confidence in the Saints, even though we know at this point, as we say this, the Saints are going to win 27 or nothing. So we can take out the Saints. It comes down really to Jags, Broncos commanders. We're locked in with the Rams. Obviously, we lost. We're locked in with the Texans. We're locked in with the Jets.
Simon Hunter
So we have two locked in.
Chad Millman
We have. We have two locked in.
Simon Hunter
For today, we're debating against three. Which. What's the. What's the one we want out? I'll let you pick because you're, you're. Again, you're waving on the Jags pick. If you, if you feel it in your soul, brother, I want you to put it in because again, I bet it now. I'm, I'm on. I'm on it with you. But it's like, it's. That's going to be your one big, big bet this week. This is my team. And again, we get to wait till Monday night, which is even better.
Chad Millman
I know. It's miserable.
Simon Hunter
It's miserable.
Chad Millman
I really want to take the Jags.
Simon Hunter
Okay, so I'll take. I'll take. So we got the. We got the Jags in then.
Chad Millman
So Jags. Houston. Houston.
Simon Hunter
And who do we want now between Commies or Denver?
Chad Millman
Yeah. Yeah.
Simon Hunter
Who do you want if we do. If we do Denver, we're basically done at 1 o' clock after the 1 o'. Clocks.
Chad Millman
Every time I want to say Denver, I actually want to put the commanders in every time. I feel so regretful. Every time I say Denver.
Simon Hunter
No, let's do commanders because I, I love the commanders, too. I just can't get over that. Such a. If we get burned to lands on three again, I'll look forward. I will make us bet against the Chargers if it's under three.
Chad Millman
Well, look, that's the point, though. Like that. Like, let's not discount the number. Like, the number is a big deal. We're getting the four and a half with Denver, and we're getting the two and a half with the commanders.
Simon Hunter
I know, but like I always tell you, the books aren't our friends.
Chad Millman
All right, so we're going with the commanders. All right. All right. Then the final four that we're doing because we already lost the Rams, we got the Texans, we get a plus three and a half in the contest. We know their favorites now, but we can only play the lines that are presented. If you were listening to Tuesday's show, then you were able to get the Texans at plus three and a half. We're doing the jets at plus two and a half. We're doing the Jags at plus three and a half. On Monday night we're doing the Commanders at plus two and a half. But you can get a three with the commanders out there. So go and get it. Reminder we're coming back with a free to Play Sharper Square contest. Dates will be determined and shared in the next couple weeks, but there will be a contest that we're all going to get to play together. This has been Sharper Square part of the Volume Podcast Network. We will be back on Sharper Square YouTube tonight, live at 7:30. To recap all the misery and glory of the day, watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video. Subscribe subscribe to the channel. Also downloads from Spotify Apple Pods where they get your pods Rate Review Subscribe Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.
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Julian Edelman
This is Julian Edelman from Games With Names. Football is back. That means it's tailgate time. And this season the only meat I'm going to grill is deets and Watson. I'm loving the Black Angus Dietz dogs. They're flavor packed and you can tell they are made with the highest quality ingredients. Sundays just got a whole lot better. Visit deetsandwatson.com the right way to learn more about the deets difference.
Sharp or Square – FINAL NFL Week 5 Bets
Podcast: iHeartPodcasts and The Volume
Date: October 5, 2025
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
In this episode, hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter lock in their final NFL Week 5 betting picks for their contest, navigating the latest injury reports, line movements, and sharp insight. The show’s goal, as always, is to help casual and serious bettors alike sharpen their instincts—identifying when the pros (“sharps”) and the general public (“squares”) are backing different sides. They debate key matchups, share betting psychology, and deliver their favorite plays, while weighing contest logistics and opportunity cost.
Locked-in Picks:
The episode is collegial, frank, self-deprecating, and driven by analytical rigor but sprinkled with humor and humility about the randomness of sports betting. The hosts freely admit their doubts, highlight the importance of “the number,” and blend sharp insights with the camaraderie of friends sweating bets together.
This episode is a full walk-through of Week 5 NFL picks from two seasoned bettors, including emotional ups and downs, detailed analysis of line movement and injury news, and candid strategy talk about managing contest entries. The hosts help listeners distinguish between sharp and square plays in the context of ever-shifting odds, ultimately providing a card of four picks (after an early Rams loss) with a “bet like a pro” mindset. If you want to understand the week’s sharp action, get actionable advice, and hear honest bet-sweat banter, this episode delivers.