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Sharp or Square
FINAL NFL Week 6 Bets - Lions-Chiefs, Chargers-Dolphins, Cowboys-Panthers, Browns-Steelers, Patriots-Saints and more
00:25:25
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- [00:00]
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- [01:06]
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- [01:36]
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- [02:28]
Chad Millman
Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock Bet. We are part of The Volume Podcast Network. This is the betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined as always by my bff, my companion, my compadre, professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
- [02:52]
Simon Hunter
Chad. How we doing, brother?
- [02:54]
Chad Millman
Listen, this is why we do the show on Sunday mornings because so much has changed even since the Thursday show. There are injuries to a lot of the games we discussed. There have been a lot of line moves for a lot of the games we've discussed the entire week, both positively and negatively. So I love that we're getting a chance to review and make decisions. And after we have full clarity of the entire field, we're going to get into that in a second. First, I want to remind everybody, as many of you know, in the past, in a previous iteration of the show, we've had a totally free to play NFL Pick em contest. We've given away some big prizes because we had to launch Sharper Square so quickly before the season began. We ran out of time to launch the contest, but thanks to our very benevolent sponsors at Hard Rock Back, we Hard Rock back, we can announce that a free Sharper Square NFL pick' em contest will be launching very, very, very, very, very, very, very soon. We can't give out the official date yet, but stay tuned. We'll have more announcements coming up this week. All right, this is the stripped down in the room eavesdropping version of Sharper Square. Simon and I are going to try to nail down our final five picks now that, as I've said, we've got injuries, we've got line moves, all that stuff. Simon, are you ready?
- [04:22]
Simon Hunter
Ready, brother.
- [04:23]
Chad Millman
All right, so starting off Dallas at Carolina. We've liked Carolina all week. It was at three and a half. It's now down to three. We're getting it at three and a half in our contest. The wise guys have liked it. Bryce Young is improving. Carolina's defense is actually improving. Carolina's getting healthier. Dallas still incredibly banged up. Coming off of two incredibly big high profile wins the Cowboys have. I still like the Panthers at plus three and a half. Yeah.
- [04:57]
Simon Hunter
And you know, it's a line that I thought would keep coming down. There's one book at minus two and a half. So, you know, that's where I thought it would be Sunday. So I'm honestly shocked. It's still in at 3, but for good reason, right? The public loves this Cowboys team. They've been good to them. Carolina is an up and down team. I don't think People fully trust them. Yet I don't think people fully come around to what mean you have, which is a ton of love and respect for Bryce Young. Like I just. You go back and watch. This is not like we said there, this is not a good Carolina team. But he keeps finding a way. He keeps pushing the ball downfield which is we wanted to see from him. And in this matchup we talked about, Dak could easily burn us here. But at this number I feel a lot safer. And even at the plus three, I still think that's a good number for this Carolina team. I just can see this easily being a shootout last team. The ball obviously wins. You know the. To me, the bump in this line, I know it sounds crazy. I do think it has to do a lot with the Cowboys kicker that he is such a weapon and. And that's why it's held at this three because I do think normally this would be a two, two and a half line. So yeah, we've loved it. I would say I loved it more than you and I think you've come around especially on Thursday show totally fair this Carolina side and you know, three and a half. I knew, I felt like I knew Sunday we were never going to avoid this one at this number. I just. The Cowboys team, like we keep saying they have so many injuries, how can they not be overvalued? It's really. I mean Dak is just, you know, he's in the MVP conversation. He should be. It's like what he's done this season with this team is incredible. So yeah, once again all about the number. Try not to get hyper focused on the quarterbacks here and all the trends that love Dak in this exact spot. I think this is a number that's a little overvalued and a three and a half in the contest. I got to take a brother look.
- [06:48]
Chad Millman
The only thing that is starting to scare me a little bit is there's potential weather and wind impacting the game.
- [06:55]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [06:56]
Chad Millman
And like that could turn it into a much lower scoring game. Right. That could change how these teams approach the passing game and see what it'll do to their ability to move the ball downfield. But I. And look the Cowboys. Javante Williams has been great this year, but things trending for Chib Hubbard to play again even then. Rico Dowdle had 200 yards rushing last week. So I'm still going to be on the side of the Panthers here. Agree. Took me a minute but I got there.
- [07:24]
Simon Hunter
Now I didn't think about that. You're right. I think we're getting like a crazy nor eastern. Right.
- [07:27]
Chad Millman
Crazy north.
- [07:28]
Simon Hunter
So, yeah, that's. That's fair. I honestly, I think that might play in our total. The totals come down from 50 now to 48 and a half. So, yeah, obviously the money's agreed with you that this weather could affect this game.
- [07:40]
Chad Millman
All right, Chargers minus three and a half now at Miami. This was our brass balls bet of the week when it was chargers minus 4. I am not going to feel obligated to put this into the contest because there are other lines that are moving so aggressively that we got to play the best opportunities that we have when we're putting our favorite five in there. So the fact that it's moved against us, it's at four and a half in the contest. It's at three and a half now. There have been some more injuries reported for the Chargers. Quinton Johnston potentially going to be out if not already ruled out. We're bet. People were asking me why this was brass balls, and the reason it was brass balls is because we were betting on the road favorite. That is getting a preponderance of the bets. But the money is coming in on Miami. So that makes it a ballsy pick because we are definitively against the wise guys. I don't like the way the numbers moved against us in terms of putting it in the contest.
- [08:43]
Simon Hunter
I still like them, but I agree they're probably number five or six now for me, so I have no issue if they're the last one out. I just, I love this spot for the Chargers. And, yeah, that's why it's a raspberry bed. It's. It feels like very, very small amount of professionals are taking this Chargers team. I think everyone's kind of left them for dead here because of all the injuries. And like we said, this is usually a game where TUA at home performs well, but I still think the Chargers are undervalued here. But I agree there's. There's other games we can, we can break down.
- [09:12]
Chad Millman
To be clear, for anyone watching, we still like the Chargers. We're both on the Chargers. If you want to take the Chargers three and a half, take the charges at three and a half. I just don't like the value that we're getting in the contest compared to what the number currently is. Cleveland at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh currently is six point favorite. Look, we've been touting the Steelers every show this week. Tuesday we loved him at four and a half. Thursday, we loved him at five and a half. It's now six trending to six and a half. It's good. It's. It's going to be a bigger number than what we have been saying people should choose all week. Four and a half in our contest Lines lock on Wednesday reminder to people. I think anyone who is watching right now you've lost the value on the Steelers. It's a, you know most places it's probably trending to 6 and a half so you're just not getting the best of the number. But geez, the Steelers rested with just about everybody back. Still like him in the contest for sure.
- [10:16]
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- [10:16]
Simon Hunter
And this is probably once in seven years of us doing that. We're taking Tomlin over field goal favorite at home. Like this is always a fade spot for us. So it must really, really be a good spot if we're taking them in our contest. And we've been preaching all week. We just. It's the number. It's a situation. The trends all point to it as well. Like I read off all those Tomlin trends after the buy week, especially early bye weeks. If you're terrified of it. I get it. People just. You have to at least take the Steelers money line here. Like there's no excuse to pass on this one in this spot. So yeah it's as the Browns go this would be legendary if, if they can go in here and win this game and cover this number that would be an all timer because it just feels like such a horrible spot for them. So gonna be a sweat. I have no doubt we will be down three heading to half with this Pittsburgh side. That's just how it is when you're taking time as a favor. But like Chad said, we've been it all week. I bet it four. I bet at four and a half. I've even been still this morning it's five and a half. I bet it again because I'm like Chad. I think it's going to keep going up to six, six and a half as the public wakes up here early in the morning. So four and a half contest. Can't avoid it. Got to put it in Chad.
- [11:26]
Chad Millman
Detroit at Kansas City. Kansas City is now a two and a half point favorite. Simon, this is our Rockin hard plays bet of the week presented by Hard Rock Bet.
- [11:44]
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- [11:49]
Chad Millman
Look, the Chiefs are the pro side here. Any bookmaker you talk to is telling you they have huge, huge number of bets coming in on the Detroit Lions. They are by far and away the public side here. And yet this line. One and a half. Two, two and A half like it has not gotten to three. This two and a half seems to be sort of the line of demarcation right now. You and I have both been betting the Chiefs. We've been betting the Chiefs since he was at one and a half. Two, two and a half. It is one and a half in our contest, which makes me feel very good about taking them. But this is a pros Joe's game. It's probably one of the most pros Joe's game on the board this week for sure.
- [12:36]
Simon Hunter
And I mean I can't tell you many football clips. I feel like people are sending me of people in this business trying to figure out why this line is what it is while also being like this is the easiest bet of my life taking Detroit. This is a no brainer and we've seen all the time public wins, they could be proven right. But long term, very, very, very stupid bet. To think you are smarter than the books and you know more about a line. Well, these people don't have models. They're just guys who hold a living is throwing shit against the wall and hoping it sticks when they're the ones that are feeling super confident about Detroit. Anyone if you had any type of read and you were like, well you guys are overthinking this. You think you're so smart taking this Chiefs team I gave you. I know it's small trends, but I gave you all those exact trends of Mahomes in the spot against these type of teams and spags against these type of teams. So it's a juggernaut. We're standing in front of a really great team here in Detroit. I think we're both banking on a letdown and the fact that they have had a very, very weak schedule up to this point. It's fair to say that. So I'm excited for this one. Like this is so excited for this one perfect game for Sunday night. And like you said, you could have maybe talked me out of the chat this morning if it was two and a half in our contest at one and a half. This has been locked in for us since Tuesday. Like this is one of the first bets I put in for us. No brainer, can't avoid it. We are all in on these home teams. Like people are going to see this a quick trend here. We love the home teams this week and this is another one where it's a good number short favorite here, Mahomes. We might get burned here long term for the rest of our lives. This is a smart bet and you should join us here. I know it's scary. Just trust the numbers, trust the data. This is a good spot. This is a Detroit team that is very talented. This is peak, peak, peak value for them this season, I believe. And I think they're going to quickly see like the reason all these people have them power ranked as number one team because they haven't played a great team since week one. So I'm going to be interested to see how they do with what we talked about. I think it's going to be a spags type of game where he takes away the run. It forces golf to beat them and that's what I'm so interested to see how how this chess match goes because I just saw something different last week. Mahomes. I think Mahomes is going to get his they could be able to get the 30 points in this game. Ken Goff, keep up. Can he get to that that number? So yeah, minus one and a half. Love the Chiefs here.
- [14:57]
Chad Millman
Well, look, there's also a lot of injuries for the Lions that really haven't been discussed very much this week, especially in their defensive backfield but also along their offensive line. Amon Russ St. Brown was banged up most of the week, didn't practice most of the week. This game is on grass, which is a different track than the Lions have been winning and dominating on for the past few weeks. Just and as many trends as there are from a homes, there are also those trends for the Lions covering in prime time and how good Dan Campbell is. I don't want to discount that, but I still feel like we're just it's the very first thing you said people need to understand. Bookmakers don't have models for the lines they set. They eyeball these things. They get some numbers from consultants. The lines get pounded into shape generally by betters around the world. Really, this line has been moving in the Chief's direction despite every single bet from the public coming in on the Lions. It's rare that bookmakers take a stand. They've taken a stand and said that they like the Chiefs in this game. So we're going to be with the bookmakers. Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. It's not just a great sportsbook app. They give you crazy stats. Check out these streaks from Hard Rock Bet Stats Hub. You can find live odds to bet on all of these streaks in the Hard rock bet app. KC has won 12 in a row as home favorites. Can they make it 13 against Detroit in prime time. Devon Achan has scored a touchdown in seven straight home games, and George Picketts has reached the end zone in five consecutive Sunday games. Stats like these are just a tap away when you open the Hard Rock Back Bet app. If you haven't tried your first bet on Hard Rock Bet, there's still time for you to get $150 in bonus bets. If you win, just place a five dollar bet and if it hits, you get not only your winnings, but $150 in extra bonus bets. Plus, on Hard Rock Bet, you can get a parlay boost for today's games. There's new promos every day. Boost your same game parlay or SGP Max, so your bet pays extra winnings. There's new promos every day, so if you're listening to this later, just open the app and check out what you've got. Any day of the week payable in bonus bets Not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida Offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states. Must be 21 and over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1833 playwise in Indiana, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-809-with-IT gambling problem call 1-800-GAMBLER in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee and Virginia This.
- [18:11]
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- [18:41]
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- [19:44]
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- [20:16]
Simon Hunter
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- [20:32]
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- [20:34]
Simon Hunter
Cut the camera. They see us.
- [20:36]
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- [20:39]
Chad Millman
Liberty, Liberty.
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- [20:43]
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- [20:44]
Chad Millman
All right, I think we've got Carolina three and a half. Pittsburgh four and a half. It's bigger currently. We understand, but we're playing the contest line. Kansas City minus one and a half again. We still like the Chiefs at two and a half. We're playing the contest line. I think we got to talk about Arizona at Indianapolis. We've been talking about it since Sunday. You said last Sunday night early liens on the Sunday night show. Indy was four and a half. I think that's what I bet it at. We liked it then. It's been slowly creeping up. Now. Probability that Kyler Murray isn't going to play this line has jumped from moving. It was at six and a half, seven. Now it's at nine. Nine and a half. Nine at Hard Rock, nine and a half. Other places in our contest, it's six and a half. I'm not recommending anybody play it at nine and a half. But sorry, folks, we got to talk about it. We've liked the Colts all week at at a good number. Now it's exploded. How do we not play this?
- [21:45]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, six and a half. We're not played. I mean it's. If you're. If you did miss it, even though we talked, why you should have taken on Thursday show. Is that Kyler Is banged up. He wasn't practicing. They were still six and a half even on our Thursday show. You know, did jump up to seven and a half I believe Friday, then back down and then once the shefter tweet came out that he's has a really high chance of missing. Like Chad said, it shot all the way up to nine and a half. Don't hate it obviously at nine and a half but I obviously much prefer when it was under those key numbers. And it's just a bad spot version. I gave you those trends about teams that play in three straight games they lost by a field goal. The fourth game they're two and eight against the spread. One and nine straight up. So historically bad spot going back. Just teams they can only take so much. Right. Like we said, these are human beings. How do you not just get beaten by this? Like beaten down by losing so many close games in a row now you've lost your supposed leader, your quarterback in and you know good Brissette can maybe win you a game. He's the type of guy, he could steal your game. He is a vet. He is also a statue with that's very limited mobility. Doesn't have the best arm. This is just feels like to me a locker room guy. Like not someone you want starting for you, let alone against a Colts team that just looks. Looks like an absolute juggernaut. So could we get burned? Could the Colts finally have a really bad game and we get burned by it? Sure. I mean they're coming off what a 30, 40 point win against the Raiders last week. But I just think they're rolling. They're such a good team. Arizona feels like the total opposite. They're just not as. Not as well coached in the sense. And yeah, this is like we said all about the number six and a half, no brainer got to put in the contest.
- [23:26]
Chad Millman
It's a number play. All right, so now we got four games that we like. We got three games that we got to discuss. New England at New Orleans. This is three and a half for New Orleans. This is your Simon says. Lots of love both sides here from professionals. You were taking a stand. I disagree. Doesn't mean we don't have to put it in the contest. The other game, Tennessee at the Raiders. The Raiders are minus four. This was Chad's choice. Sometimes we got to do gross things and bet on bad quarterbacks who are a bit of a train wreck like Geno Smith. I feel like I'm kind of dragging you along on this one. So we have Those two competing with each other. Then we got the Chicago Bears plus four and a half at Washington. And I want to talk about all three of them together because the Bears will be healthier than they have been all year. T.J. edwards, the linebacker, is back. Kyler Gordon, defensive back is back. Austin Booker, back at defensive end. Colston Loveland, back at tight end. Darnell Wright, right tackle is back. Terry McLaurin is out for Washington. So we've got a game that you like that I don't in New Orleans, New England, a game that I love that you're mediocre on in the Raiders and Tennessee, and then the Chicago Bears plus four and a half at Washington on Monday night.
- [24:50]
Simon Hunter
So, I mean, I can be talked to other Saints, because right now, what I'm looking at, I know it's stupid, people shouldn't think this way, but, like, this is the original five I put in for us on whatever that was Tuesday or Wednesday after our show. I had the Colts, I had Pittsburgh, I had Carolina, I had New Orleans, and I had the Chiefs. So those are five home teams, which, again, not a big deal, doesn't really matter.
- [25:09]
Chad Millman
And by the way, those are four. Other than the Saints. Those are the four teams we're still.
- [25:13]
Simon Hunter
On and four of those picks. So Colts, Pittsburgh, Carolina, Saints, they're all one o'.
- [25:21]
Lenovo Advertiser
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- [25:23]
Simon Hunter
So it's also like a thing where it's like, we'll know right away. Are we over four for the day? Four? No. Whatever it is, it's all rolling on the 1 o'. Clock. That's why it's like, I'm not as confident as you are in the Vegas one at all. But, like, I bet it, it's. It is a good spot, obviously, nor Brock Bowers is, like, a huge negative to me. But the fact that, like, you know, most books, it is Tennessee money, which was shocking to me. There is professional love for Tennessee, and the public, for the most part, has joined them. But, yeah, I just. I don't really have a read on it. I mean, it is tough. Like, I love the Bears. I'm with you on it. I just. I don't get why it's still four and a half at every book.
- [26:08]
Chad Millman
I don't either.
- [26:09]
Simon Hunter
It's so.
- [26:11]
Chad Millman
It's so weird that this thing has not budged.
- [26:15]
Simon Hunter
So that's my hesitation with that one.
- [26:18]
Chad Millman
That really worries me. I'm not gonna lie. Because, like, it just. This game never should have been four and a half. It should have been three.
- [26:25]
Simon Hunter
No. So, like, right now, two very public plays. We're on Colts, Pittsburgh, both are very good numbers. If we want to just go with the professional side, Carolina, Saints, Chiefs, that's basically where we're at with those, where it's just like we're trusting the number we're with the pros, it's good numbers, you know, but like, my, My fear is the public has just been getting killed. That's why, like, I'm a little hesitant this week where it's like, they're gonna have their week, the public, they're gonna get their revenge at some point. So still, like I said, still saying, still think it's a good number. Can it be our last one now? Like, would I rather have Vegas in there? If Chad's feeling really good about it, got no issue with it. Chicago one. That's. That's a little hesitation for me because it's like, I don't know if I can allow us to do it because we both know there's red flags right now.
- [27:15]
Chad Millman
Red flags.
- [27:16]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [27:16]
Chad Millman
It is the red flag, boyfriend. Of all games. Yeah, 100%. Like, it's weird that I never feel confident about the Bears and I feel confident and maybe I'm leaning too much into. This is the game where the Bears, you know, get rid of their demons from last year where the trouble started and they cratered after that loss to the commanders and they got players coming back. They're off a bye week. I'm. I'm all in on Ben and Caleb. Like, I'm just so enthusiastic.
- [27:47]
Simon Hunter
So, like, my view is you supported me on the Chiefs, you supported me on Carolina. I get it. You don't want to support me on the Saints. If you want to go Raiders over Raiders.
- [27:57]
Chad Millman
Raiders.
- [27:58]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. I'm okay with it. Even though it's like a spot we normally don't take. I just, I can't get over how. How insane this line movement's been with this Raiders number. And I know again, all the pros on the other side, I think I even saw some three and a half pop with that Tennessee side. So, like, you could get Raiders at minus three and a half, which is totally me. So we're going against it. But like I said, it's. I. I gotta pick and choose my battles. You're nice enough to give me these Panthers, which is gross, and the Chiefs, which is gross. Yeah.
- [28:30]
Chad Millman
But I don't feel like I'm giving you anything gross. I actually, I now love the Panthers and I've loved it. I've loved the Chiefs all week. So to me, we're. We're we're compromising really on the Saints and the Patriots where we just completely disagree and and the Raiders. I feel like you don't love, but you still bet it. And you can bet it.
- [28:57]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, like I said, I bet it. And I completely see your rationale. And like I told you, the trends also point to it but being technically a good spot for this Raiders team, which again, I I couldn't believe they exist because this Raiders team just seems dreadful in so many ways. But yeah, it's I just locked it in brother. We got Chiefs, Raiders, Panthers, Pittsburgh Colts.
- [29:20]
Chad Millman
Our final picks are Carolina plus three and a half, Steelers minus four and a half, Colts minus six and a half, Chiefs minus one and a half, Raiders minus four and a half. Don't forget all these contest lines. Sometimes they move. That's why we're taking them. We're playing the market and the numbers and the latest information. Well done. Really good dialogue, Simon. I really appreciate it. This has been Sharper Square part of the Volume Podcast Network. We will be back on Sharper Square YouTube tonight. Live 7:30ish. To recap all the misery and glory of the day. Probably coming on right after the disgustingness of that Raiders Titans game. Watch or listen on YouTube arpersquare Like this video? Subscribe to the channel. Also download us from Spotify, Apple Pod, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe, leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.
- [30:25]
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- [30:57]
Degree Cool Rush Advertiser
Today's episode is brought to you by a scent that's made a legendary comeback degree Original Cool Rush. The OG is back and better than ever. Cool Rush isn't just a scent. It's a movement. The kind of fragrance that millions of guys ask for by name. It's bold, fresh and delivers all day sweat protection with that cool, crisp vibe that made it a legendary Whether you're heading to the gym, the office, or just trying to stay fresh on a long day, Cool Rush has your back. So if you haven't tried it yet, head to your local Walmart and Grab Degree Cool Rush, the fan favorite scent from the world's number one antiperspirant brand.
- [31:30]
Kraken Crypto Advertiser
This October, you can earn up to 2% back when you deposit $1,000 or more on Kraken, the crypto platform with over 400 assets to buy and trade. The bonus is uncapped, so if you deposit $50,000, you could earn up to $1,000 back. Download the Kraken app in the App Store or Google Play and deposit by October 31st. Not investment advice. Crypto trading involves risk of loss and is offered to US customers through PayWord Interactive Inc. Terms apply.
- [32:01]
Simon Hunter
Come on, why is this taking so long? This thing is ancient.
- [32:05]
Lenovo Advertiser
Still using yesterday's tech upgrade to the ThinkPad X1 carbon ultralight, ultra powerful and built for serious productivity with Intel Core Ultra processors, blazing speed and AI powered performance that keeps up with your business, not the other way around.
- [32:19]
Simon Hunter
Whoa, this thing moves.
- [32:20]
Lenovo Advertiser
Stop hitting snooze on new tech. Win the tech search@lenovo.com Lenovo Lenovo unlock AI experiences with the ThinkPad X1 carbon powered by Intel Core Ultra processors so you can work, create and boost productivity all on one device.