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Sharp or Square
FINAL NFL Week 8 Bets: Cowboys-Broncos, Packers-Steelers, Giants-Eagles, Bills-Panthers, Bucs-Saints and more
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- [00:00]
Simon Hunter
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:04]
Sponsor Voice
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- [02:26]
Chad Millman
Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock Bet. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined by my co host, my bff, my companion, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
- [02:47]
Simon Hunter
Good morning, Chad brother.
- [02:50]
Chad Millman
We got a lot of work to do today. This is the Sunday episode stripped down in the room eavesdropping version of Sharper Square which you and I will try to nail down the final five picks. Now that injuries have been reported, lines have been moving. Are you ready?
- [03:08]
Simon Hunter
Let's do it.
- [03:09]
Chad Millman
All right. These are the games we zeroed in on the other day. Big, big news here. Obviously addressing it off the top. Chicago at Baltimore. This was our big balls bet of the week. Baltimore -6.5. At the time we had an expectation Lamar Jackson was playing. This line is now two and a half. How stupid can the Ravens and John Harbaugh be? Because they happen to list Lamar Jackson as a full participant in practice on Friday. The lines immediately move from six and a half to seven. It's the news. Everybody who was paying attention to this game had been waiting for. I know this.
- [03:49]
Simon Hunter
He practiced today. Full practice today.
- [03:52]
Chad Millman
So that was good. And then the news came out that Lamar Jackson practiced with the third stringers and then his status was changed to out. And now the NFL is investigating how the Ravens managed their injury port injury report news and sharing of all the weeks to not toe the line with injury reports and act like an arrogant idiot. This was not the week to do it. Simon. What a tone deaf, stupid, arrogant thing to do by John Harbaugh. And I feel like this is the week of stupid, arrogant things from NFL coaches. We'll get to that in a second. But look, we're sticking with the Ravens at minus six and a half. The line is now down. It went to two. It's actually moved up to two and a half and there's actually some threes out there. We're not going to play this game. I just wanted to raise it so people are aware of it since we had discussed it a lot during the week. Thoughts from your point of view?
- [04:53]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it stinks. But I thank God. Not that they listen to us, but they listen to the general public. They're not playing Cooper Rush, who? I know it's a big deal. They gave the guy 7 million. But Chad. Chad thought I was crazy. I'm telling you, like that was my view on him. I'd much rather have Snoop puntley in there even. Even how bad he could be. Snoop. It's like anything's better than Cooper Rush. Like the fact that I don't think.
- [05:17]
Chad Millman
This is dead for us. I honestly don't know.
- [05:18]
Simon Hunter
I don't either. So like on the mindset of I we could mean check could take Bears six and a half in their contests. I have no interest of it. Bears have a really banged up secondary. They have their own injuries. It's still a bad spot for the Bears. But yeah, as a Bears fan I'd be really happy right this is you're playing the Ravens out Lamar, could you steal one? Of course. But the Chad's point probably wouldn't be that big of a deal if they just been honest on Friday saying he was limited in practice and rather than what Chad said like them saying that he was full. Go Lamar. It's a big no go. Like we talk about these, these organizations, these teams, they need to realize this isn't 2020, this isn't 2015. Right. Horrible. In 2015 if this would have happened. Not a big deal. Maybe a very small fine. Your league, yourself, your owner, your franchise, everyone is in bed with these gambling companies. You cannot be doing this anymore. It's. It's a new age. So I'm with you, Chad. It's. I, I. We could spend 20 minutes about how stupid it is and all that is wrong with it and manipulating lines. But like I always say the pros who's got good sources and they took a risk and they made a bet. They somehow were on this with this Bear scene. They were betting all week. They just did not trust the news coming out about Lamar. So yeah, bad, bad miss by me. But like I just said, I'm still on this Ravens team. Still think with that defense guys are getting back healthy. Derek Henry with Snoop Huntley and that run scheme they should be able to run the ball. So it's, it's an interesting spot for this, this Ravens team and a must win. But yeah, sorry guys, we definitely messed up on that one.
- [06:55]
Chad Millman
All right, we're going to get to our rock and a hard place. San Francisco at Houston. We've been on this all week. Line moved up to two and a half. It's two at Hard Rock bet right now. Huge move on the game. It was Texans minus one when you called it. As Simon says on Tuesday, I think we're getting an even better number in the contest that we play with with the Texans as a, as a dog. Either way, we've been on this game forgetting about the contest. We're still on this game as Texans are short favorites. The niners are missing some key players on a defense that cannot get past rush. Bryce Huff, who had a great game last week, sack force, fumble, several tackles, will not be playing today. We're going to be on the Texans no matter what the number here.
- [07:44]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, still playing the Texans and we've talked about it. It's, it's a bet on their defense at home in this matchup and it's a bet on CJ without his number one, number two receiver. Yes, big deal. But like Chad just mentioned, he's not going to have pressure in his face and we've seen with CJ has time. You could give him no names. He made Nico Collins into a name. So that's the thing with cj he can take guys you haven't heard of, make it work as long as he has time and he's comfortable. And yeah, it's a great matchup. Like Chad said, we're also getting an amazing number on this Texans team. So yeah played it all week. What is still taken in our contest honestly if it was minus two and a half like I have no issue with betting this as long as it's under three and we talk this is going to be the pros versus shows. The, the pros are all over it. The public is over the 49ers and yeah we, we can't avoid this one especially the fact we get such a good line. So Houston's defense, we need him to show up, give them major problems. It's once again it's a banged up Mac Jones. Come on. Take away McAffrey Houston defense, that's all you got to do.
- [08:46]
Chad Millman
That's right. Dallas at Denver. Denver is minus three at Hard Rock Bed. It's three and a half most places. This was Chad's choice when it was Denver minus three. Look, the biggest fear here is Bonix against a zone defense and I have never in the years we've done this show that Ebert Matt Eberfluss has been someone that anyone ever talked about as a Bears head coach and now is the Cowboys defensive coordinator. I have never said this is a problem for a quarterback against a Matt Eber flu's defense because the guy is terrible at his job. But Bonix is not very good against his own defense and and I think that's what you're going to get from Dallas because that's basically all you get from Dallas. So that is a little bit of a fear here. But we continue to be on the Broncos whether it's three or three and a half, whatever you're getting we are still going to play the Broncos here. I just like the pressure the Broncos can get against Dak, and I think that can be the game changer in this game.
- [09:54]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. Love Denver. And part of me is just honestly excited to see if all the stuff, all the numbers are true, that Dallas is a worst team on the road. And, you know, so far we're here we are in week eight and it's proven out a little bit. Right. They're lost week one to the Eagles on the road. Week three against Chicago. People probably remember they lost 31 to 14. Okay. You can say I was a flukey game. They had a bunch of injuries, then they beat the jets on the road, then they lost the Panthers on the road. So their one win on the season on the road is against arguably the worst team in football in the New York Jets. Chad and I are both on the same bill. We have high expectations for this Denver team. This should be the best defense they faced this season. It's not indoors. It's not a controlled environment. It is going to be outdoors in tough playing conditions. So, yeah, I. I get why the general public has come in on Dak right at the base. It's pretty simple. You're getting plus three and a half with Dak against Bo Nicks. Me and Chad, we love those type of moments, those type of spots where people think this number is too good to be true. I still think this number is off by one or two points. So I love that you're still getting under four. Yeah. Obviously you're hoping for a minus three. It's. It's minus three and a half. I have no problem betting the hook with the Stembert team. I love this matchup.
- [11:06]
Chad Millman
Let's talk about one that we've been debating all week. Tampa Bay at New Orleans. New Orleans is plus three and a half. You've loved it all week. The wise guys have loved it all week. Huge pros. Joe's game. Majority of the money on the Saints, majority of the bets on the Buccaneers. I have been trying to avoid this game all week. I think the injury bug is really starting to get in my head about the Buccaneers and the fact we're still getting the hook at three and a half on the Saints. Hassan Riddick is out for the bucks on the defensive side of the ball. At defensive end, Vita Vea is questionable. Luke Haggard on the offensive line is out, obviously. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Bucky Irving out. This will this caught up with them last week against the Lions. Can it catch up with them in A divisional game against a team that is scrappy and competitive that the wise guys love. I feel like we're walking into it, but I also feel like it's hard to avoid it right now.
- [12:13]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. The question is, is it one of our five favorite bets? That's going to be the toughest one here. I bet into it, but like you said, I'm not betting it so much with ton of confidence on Spencer Rattler. Like, this does feel like the type of game where Baker should bounce back after such a poor performance. And we're asking a lot. Spencer Rattler needs to keep up with a Baker run offense. So to me you talked about the injuries. That's, that's why I'm so into backing this Saints team where fully healthy Bucks, you know, got all their we weapons, all their pieces on defense. They're not, you know, hanging on by rags here. Sure. I could have got up to four and a half five. This team is. They're currently constructed. Not they're not blowing teams out this year. Like we've already talked about that. They play close games. It's just who they are. Sometimes it takes Baker a little bit to get going. So it's about the number. Like we're getting a good number. I like our contest. Chad knows it's five and a half. That's a conversation, right? The. The best number you can get right out any book is four and a half. People want to shop around on the Saints team. That's a huge key number. Like you're crossing four there. That's a big deal. So I, I'm letting people know I'm on the Saints. Is it going to be one of our five? We have a real conversation here. Just because it's a tough week with a lot of. A lot of games we don't love. And this is one of the games I am bet into. I do like so we can talk about it. But I'm. I'm not going to force us to bet Baker against Baker two weeks in a row.
- [13:38]
Chad Millman
Are you ready for a rock and a hard place Cleveland at New England. New England is minus seven right now at Hard Rock BET and it is trending to six and a half. So I want people to be patient on this. You look at any book you. It has come down from seven and a half. It's come down from seven. The Juice looks like it's trending towards six and a half. But this week our rock and a hard place bet of the week presented by Hard Rock Bed is going to be Cleveland at New England.
- [14:16]
Simon Hunter
I want to rock. Rock.
- [14:21]
Chad Millman
I want love, Simon. Whether the number seven or six and a half, we're going to be on New England here. I think that's. I have been thinking about this game all week. I have not pulled the trigger on it. And this morning I woke up and I'm like, what am I doing? How am I not pulling the trigger? Against a Browns defense that we know we like to bet when they're a bet against. When they're on the road off of a big win with a quarterback we don't believe in, against a team whose strength is throwing the ball downfield and that happens to be maybe the one, if you could call it weakness for this Cleveland Browns defense.
- [15:04]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And we already talked about it all week that you know, we could get easily get burned by this one. We have been on the other side of this bet for a long time. But it's like we always say, it's a new dawn, a new age, trying to, trying to lean into it and take these really, really public sides and spots that feel icky, feel a little gross. But I can't get, I can't get by what Chad just talked about. Like, this just feels like a horrible, horrible situation for this Cleveland team with their quarterback. They currently have just a bad matchup. Like this is the exact type of match of Rabel should absolutely dominate a team. Right. There's rookies on the road after what they went by 20 points last week. I mean, I can't even imagine what their practices were like this week and their reps about how just a team like Cleveland, I don't think they know to handle success. This is a team that, you know, we heard that stat multiple times last week. They didn't score more than 18 points in like two years. Like they're just, it's just a bad franchise. So that could have been a jumping off point.
- [16:03]
Chad Millman
Right.
- [16:04]
Simon Hunter
We could be step walking into. We're back in a team here that Patriots have covered and won four straight games after a long road trip. Now coming back home, how does a young team handle that? But like me and Chad keep saying, and luckily we've been avoiding betting against him for the most part in our contest because it's variable. At the end of the day, as great as May has been, this just feels like a, a variable bet, a variable spot once again. So yeah, in our contest we can get -6 and a half. They know what they're doing. They knew they as soon as they gave us that line, we're going to be on it. So like Chad said, be patient. I'm already seeing two books pop six and a half right now. So professionals, they're going to be on the Browns. Hopefully they bet this down, they give us a better line. But yeah, love the Patriots here.
- [16:48]
Chad Millman
All right, so we know we're going to be in Houston, Denver, Pittsburgh, New England. We're looking for our fifth right now. New Orleans. Tampa Bay is on the outside looking in. Let's talk about the New York Giants seven point dogs at Philadelphia right now. The numbers come down. There's still seven and a halfs out there. Yeah, people, people should be looking for the seven and a half. The Eagles without A.J. brown.
- [17:15]
Simon Hunter
Hard Rock is the only book here in Jersey at seven right now.
- [17:18]
Chad Millman
Right. Without a dory Jackson card.
- [17:20]
Simon Hunter
Rock.
- [17:20]
Chad Millman
Yeah, very sharp. A.J. brown is out. Adori Jackson, cornerback out. Cam Jurgen, center out. Azizo Jalari, defensive end out. All for the Eagles. Like I, I mentioned this, on Thursday, the Giants relatively healthy. Brian Burns was questionable.
- [17:40]
Sponsor Voice
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- [17:42]
Chad Millman
This feels like the kind of game where we probably need to be on the Giants if we're getting that hook.
- [17:51]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it feels like type of gross game that would just be sloppy and close and it's a huge, huge number. Like we said this, the books are in a tough spot because two weeks ago on the road they had the Eagles as what was a seven and a half point favorite. So in their mind they've already moved in line a lot, including those injuries and the perception of this Giants team. But we've talked about like since starts taking over, it just feels like the books haven't priced it right. And I admit it, I definitely got away with one with that Giants Saints game because I, my whole view was, well, let's see how this Giant team handles a big win. Now going on the road with a rookie quarterback and what happened? They had five turnovers. So.
- [18:34]
Chad Millman
Yep.
- [18:35]
Simon Hunter
You know, it's not the most ideal conditions. Right. This isn't the best spot ever with this Giants team, but I still think this is an insane number. And the Eagles are being priced as a 5 and 2 Super bowl defending champ that has been rolling along dominating teams this season. Where we talked Sunday night, they have like I think a plus 5 point differential. This is not a juggernaut of an Eagles team. This is a team that can't close teams out. A team that last week, I mean, how lucky do you have to be to cover that number if you had the Eagles ticket last week? I mean the, the Vikings, who are not good like we saw on Thursday Wentz went 1 and 5 in the red zone. If he had just scored one of those, Hawkins didn't drop the one. They get to cover maybe the win. So just feels like an Eagles team that's overpriced. Yeah. Can Saquon get right here with the run game, which is they're dying to do. Possibly. But like Chad just said, the interior line of this Eagles team is just banged up. Tons of injuries, guys now missing, including their center. Just too much to ask. Go. Yeah. Plus seven plus seven and a half. I've come a long way on this Giants and I start to really like this number.
- [19:38]
Chad Millman
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- [21:29]
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- [22:27]
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- [24:24]
Chad Millman
Last one, I just want to raise it quickly. Jets at Cincinnati, it's six at Hard Rock, six and a half basically everywhere else. We're going to bookend with arrogant defensive insecure coaches right now because Aaron Glenn reached peak. I know better frustrated coach and oppressor the other day when he would not answer questions about the quarterback. And now we know tyrant Taylor is out with a bruised knee and it's going to be up to Justin Fields. The jets are the right side here. Everybody knows it. I have no compunction to put into the contest, but we need a fifth and it's the sharpest number that's out there. I mean, honestly, it is like there's no rating that has the Bengals a six and a half point better than the Jets. This is a public perception Pros Joe's game and we see that because the number is inching towards 6. Do we want to risk it?
- [25:24]
Simon Hunter
I can't tell if you're trying to do us a favor or you just forgot that Pittsburgh has a game on Sunday night.
- [25:30]
Chad Millman
Oh my God.
- [25:32]
Simon Hunter
But I do love, I do love your, your belief in this jets team. I think at the end of the show you use them as your sharper square bet, which was very funny.
- [25:41]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [25:42]
Simon Hunter
I don't know. Like Chad said, it's probably right. We're probably supposed to do it, but I, I'm not gonna make our listeners bet this side. Like I, we gave up their money line which was great value. We got a really good number on that. And yeah, like if it was seven and a half, I could probably be talked into it. But it's six and a half. I know it's a sharp number. I just between the sauce garden, all the injuries they had and now the dysfunction. Good. I gotta avoid this one for the show. Chad.
- [26:11]
Chad Millman
I don't want to do it. You don't want to do it. But I had to raise it. I'm glad you reminded me about Pittsburgh. I skipped right over it. We, look, we've liked it all week. Getting the hook. This number's coming down. It's at three at a lot of places. Two and a half at Hard Rock.
- [26:25]
Simon Hunter
Okay.
- [26:26]
Chad Millman
Yeah, it's pretty big. We're going to be on the Steelers here in the contest. That's, that's a no brainer. It's, you know, I, I Think I skipped over it because I already listed it as one of our. As one of our five.
- [26:40]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. That's crazy. So Hard Rock and another book are. They are at minus two and a half. So that's. That's a pretty big deal. I didn't think they'd come off the three just because for me, if it feels like Green Bay to the masses is a much better team. Right. They have much more talent. It's. It's easy to believe in this team. Right. They're four one on one, number one team right now in the nfc, which is bizarre, but it's true. And Pittsburgh, coming off that embarrassing loss last week, I'm shocked that this number has moved as it has. I thought it would get back to three and a half, which is what we do have in our contest, but people know I. Plus three. Pittsburgh, if you're forced to take the plus two and a half, that's the only book you have. I don't hate it, but Chad knows we always feel better on the three. Even though it lands on two, it feels like one lands on the three. We want. We want that three. So especially in this type of matchup that could easily come down to Green Bay. Last second field goal to win it, it just feels like going to be a really close game. Possibly the ugliest uniform matchups of the season. Yeah, wait until you see these tonight, people just going to be brutal. That's the only other team I could think of. Even though I, I only bet them at minus 13 and a half. The Colts are an interesting play at minus 14 and a half. No Simmons now for Tennessee, but taking them over the Steelers, I can't get there. So I just wanted to mention I am on the Colts. Do like the Colts, even if they're, you know, -14 and a half. At your book, I still like the Colts, but yeah, for our contest, such a huge number, I feel way better taking Pittsburgh, the Giants, those two last teams to get in or even the Patriots much more than the Colts of minus 14 and a half.
- [28:26]
Chad Millman
Oh, to me, the Patriots are in. It's really coming down. And if you're saying if you're throwing Colts in all of a sudden I'd go with Giants. Like to me it's Houston plus one, Denver minus three and a half. And by the way, Houston, we still like it at the current numbers. Two, two and a half, not an issue for us.
- [28:45]
Simon Hunter
No.
- [28:47]
Chad Millman
Houston plus one, Denver minus three and a half, which is what is available right now. Pittsburgh, we're getting it at Three and a half. We like it at three. Try to find the three wherever you are, even if you have to pay a little bit of the juice. New York Giants plus seven and a half. You definitely want to get that. And then New England minus six and a half. Be patient. There are. I have seen a six and a half at a book. So it is. And the Juice is saying it's going that way. So just give it a minute. It's going to get to six and a half.
- [29:24]
Simon Hunter
That's our final five super quick. I mean last week we went one on one in totals. Hit the under in that Bucks Lions game obviously did not hit the under in that Dallas Washington game. People are looking for just gross unders again this week. The total in that Dallas game, I'll keep going back to it. It's 51 and a half. Dallas Denver.
- [29:44]
Sponsor Voice
That.
- [29:44]
Simon Hunter
That feels like a fun under. I'm going to hate myself two minutes into that game. Houston Texans 49ers total is 41 and a half. I even when they're missing a piece of the 49ers, I think both defenses are going to be on the forefront here. Like this feels like a 17 to 10, 17 to 13 type of game. Just two defenses going at it this entire game. I really like that low total. And let's give the people one more under. That's just. I don't know. We've already talked about the Patriots but I just don't see how the Browns score. Give me that under 40.5. It's. I could just see the patriots winning 20 to nothing or 20 to three. Like it just feels like a gross boring game. Like Chad said, Cleveland can't run it against them but you can pass the ball. So I could see him getting out the early lead and just being a boring sloppy game the rest of the way. So like a bunch of unders this week.
- [30:38]
Chad Millman
Real quickly, Monday Night Football, Washington and Kansas City. Kansas City's an 11.5-point favorite. It's ticked up a little bit. I know people get excited about betting these games. I'll tell you the one thing I've done with this game. I did a three team moneyline parlay of Kansas City, Atlanta and the Patriots.
- [31:07]
Simon Hunter
Was this before you knew Kirk Cousins was coming in?
- [31:11]
Chad Millman
Is Kirk Cousins.
- [31:12]
Simon Hunter
Kirk Cousins is the starter, brother. Wow. Or I don't know if it's been officially cleared but it was like a 90, 95 chance. What was worded to me that Kirk is starting this week for Pennix and that number reflects it. It's down to minus six and a half at a couple books that Atlanta.
- [31:31]
Chad Millman
Game either way, that's what I've played is City is part of a moneyline parlay.
- [31:37]
Simon Hunter
I don't hate it. I talked to you a little bit about it. My favorite money line of any team is the Bills this week. So to me, Bills, Chiefs, Colts, whatever you want to do to get the number down. But yeah, like I, I do like the, do you like the big chalk this week? But yeah, it's, we know some upsets are going to happen. We just me and Chad are in the same boat. It's like is Tua gonna beat Kirk? Is, is, is the Browns? Are they gonna upset the Patriots? Jackson Dark gonna win two in a row against the Eagles. It's like I can't see it happening, but something's gonna happen, right? One of these teams have to do and have to pull an upset off. So just be careful out there, people with these type of bets.
- [32:14]
Chad Millman
Be careful out there. I, I, I would say it's a great Hill Street Blues reference, but you don't know what that is and anyone under 50 doesn't know what that is.
- [32:23]
Simon Hunter
Hey.
- [32:25]
Sponsor Voice
Let'S be careful.
- [32:28]
Chad Millman
All right, one more time. Houston plus one. Patriots minus six and a half Denver minus three and a half Steelers plus three and a half New York Football Giants last ones in plus seven and a half this has been Sharper Square, part of the Voluum Podcast network. We will be back - sharper square 7:30ish live tonight. Sharper square YouTube to recap all the misery and glory, watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Also download us from Spotify, Apple pods wherever you get your pods rate, review, subscribe and give us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.
- [33:19]
Sponsor Voice
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- [33:54]
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- [34:38]
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- [35:40]
Simon Hunter
This is an I Heart podcast.