Sharp or Square – FINAL NFL Week 8 Bets

Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Podcast: Sharp or Square (iHeartPodcasts / The Volume)
Date: October 26, 2025
Episode Focus: Finalizing Week 8 NFL Bets

Episode Overview

Chad Millman and professional bettor Simon Hunter lock in their final five picks for NFL Week 8, dissecting sharp-versus-square angles for each featured game. They address last-minute injury news, market moves, and key betting strategies, helping listeners identify where the “wiseguys” stand on this week’s toughest matchups. The conversation leans into contest-focused plays with attention given to getting the best lines, injury-driven swings, and the hosts’ candid admissions about tough calls and “gross” bets.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Ravens Injury Drama & Contest Strategy

[03:08 - 06:55]

• Game: Chicago Bears at Baltimore Ravens
• The Ravens saw a major line drop (from -6.5 to -2.5) after confusing updates to Lamar Jackson’s injury status.
• Chad criticizes John Harbaugh and the Ravens for "a tone deaf, stupid, arrogant thing to do" by misreporting practice participation, noting that gambling-era transparency is essential.
• They ultimately pull the game from their plays but dissect what went wrong, noting how pro bettors anticipated the move.
• Quote:
  “You cannot be doing this anymore. It's a new age... Your franchise, everyone is in bed with these gambling companies.” — Simon Hunter (05:34)

2. Houston Texans vs. San Francisco 49ers

[06:55 - 08:45]

• Play: Texans as short underdogs, moving toward slight favorites
• Despite Texans injuries at wide receiver, Simon expresses faith in C.J. Stroud’s ability to produce, citing the Niners’ weak pass rush and favorable matchups.
• “We can't avoid this one, especially the fact we get such a good line.” — Simon Hunter (08:29)
• Contest Note: Strong play as long as line stays under 3.

3. Cowboys at Broncos: The Case for Denver

[08:45 - 11:05]

• Play: Denver -3 / -3.5
• Chad’s main fear: Bo Nix’s struggle vs. Dallas’ zone defense, but Denver’s pressure and home-field conditions present an advantage.
• Simon leans on Denver’s defensive edge and the Cowboys’ road woes.
• “I still think this number is off by one or two points. So I love that you're still getting under four.” — Simon Hunter (10:31)

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints

[11:05 - 13:38]

• Leaning Saints +3.5 but Not Locked In
• Classic pros vs. Joes: money on Saints, bets on Bucs.
• Chad is wary of Tampa's injury list and worries about “walking into” a wiseguy trap but recognizes importance of catching the hook.
• Simon likes the number due to Bucs’ injuries, but is not locked due to hesitancy with rookie QB Spencer Rattler vs. Baker Mayfield.
• “They play close games. It's just who they are.” — Simon Hunter (12:47)

5. Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots

[13:38 - 16:47]

• Play: Patriots -7 / -6.5 (“Rock and a Hard Place bet of the week”)
• Chad details why the Browns are a fade off a big win, on the road, with a QB the hosts don’t trust.
• Simon sees this as a classic Vrabel domination spot (referring to New England’s head coach), favoring experience and matchups over Cleveland’s inconsistent franchise history.
• “This just feels like a horrible, horrible situation for this Cleveland team with their quarterback.” — Simon Hunter (15:20)
• Emphasis: Be patient—wait for the line to hit -6.5.

6. Giants at Eagles: Finding the Value

[16:47 - 19:37]

• Play: Giants +7.5
• Philly’s roster is banged up (A.J. Brown, Adoree Jackson, Cam Jurgens out). Giants are relatively healthier.
• Simon: Books haven’t caught up with the Giants’ current quality, and the Eagles are being “priced as a juggernaut” when they’re not dominant.
• “This is not a juggernaut of an Eagles team. This is a team that can't close teams out.” — Simon Hunter (18:53)
• Key: Prioritize +7.5 if you can find it.

7. Jets at Bengals — Analyzing the Sharpside but Passing

[24:23 - 26:11]

• Chad frames the Jets (+6 / +6.5) as the “sharpest number out there,” but neither host feels confident enough to include it as a top five contest play.
• Simon: “I know it's a sharp number… but I gotta avoid this one.”

8. Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers

[26:11 - 28:25]

• Play: Pittsburgh +3 / +3.5
• Hosts see the Steelers as a classic home-dog value, contest number at +3.5. Caution: Shop for the 3 if possible, avoid at +2.5.
• Simon: “If it feels like Green Bay to the masses is a much better team… but it just feels like going to be a really close game.”

9. Honorable Mentions and Throw-Outs

• Colts were mentioned as a potential play at -14.5, but both agree the number is “just too huge” compared to others.
• Saints/Bucs and Jets/Bengals are sharp, but not making the final five due to injury uncertainty and lack of conviction.

The Final Five Contest Picks (Week 8)

[28:28; 32:28]

1. Houston Texans +1 (also okay at -2/-2.5)
2. Denver Broncos -3.5
3. Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 (prefer 3 or better)
4. New England Patriots -6.5 (wait for line to drop from -7)
5. New York Giants +7.5

“Houston plus one; Denver minus three and a half; Steelers plus three and a half; New York Football Giants plus seven and a half; and New England minus six and a half. That’s our final five.” — Chad Millman (28:49, 32:28)

Total Bets & Bonus Angles

[29:24 - 30:38]

• Lean toward Unders:
  • Dallas vs. Denver: Under 51.5 (“feels like a fun under” — Simon, 29:44)
  • Houston vs. San Francisco: Under 41.5
  • Cleveland vs. New England: Under 40.5 (“Just feels like a gross, boring game” — Simon, 30:11)
• Monday Night Football:
  • KC -11.5 (against Washington) as part of a moneyline parlay with ATL and NE
  • Kirk Cousins’ late injury news is moving the line (ATL dropping to -6.5).

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On injury reporting in the gambling era:
  “It’s a new age. You cannot be doing this anymore.” — Simon Hunter (05:34)

• On Eagles being overvalued:
  “This is not a juggernaut of an Eagles team. This is a team that can't close teams out.” — Simon Hunter (18:53)

• On sweating ‘gross’ bets:
  “So yeah, in our contest we can get -6.5. They know what they're doing… but yeah, love the Patriots here.” — Simon Hunter (16:37)

• Contest advice:
  “Try to find the three wherever you are, even if you have to pay a little bit of the juice.” — Chad Millman (28:45, about Steelers +3)

Tone & Delivery

The conversation is unfiltered, analytical, and sometimes self-deprecating, with both hosts willing to admit mistakes or feel “gross” about backing certain sides. They maintain a practical approach: getting the best number, waiting on lines, and reading the market rather than sticking to firm early-week positions if injury news changes everything.

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Ravens Drama & Betting Transparency: 03:08–06:55
• Texans-Niners Final Analysis: 06:55–08:45
• Broncos-Cowboys Sharp Call: 08:45–11:05
• Saints-Bucs Push/Pull: 11:05–13:38
• Patriots-Browns Must Bet: 13:38–16:47
• Giants-Eagles Key Value: 16:47–19:37
• Jets-Bengals Sharp Debate: 24:23–26:11
• Steelers-Packers Contest Lock: 26:11–28:25
• Top Five Recap: 28:45 / 32:28
• Unders & Bonus Parlays: 29:24–31:36

Final Word

The episode arms listeners with actionable insights, emphasizing market movement, contest strategies, and real-world betting psychology. Chad and Simon’s picks are a blend of sharp logic, line value, and a willingness to stomach the ugliest sides for long-term profit.

Five Final Bets

• Texans +1 (okay up to -2.5)
• Broncos -3.5
• Steelers +3.5
• Patriots -6.5 (wait for line drop)
• Giants +7.5

“That’s our final five.” — Chad Millman (32:28)