Sharp or Square

FINAL NFL Week 9 Bets: Cowboys-Cardinals, Broncos-Texans, Vikings-Lions, Chiefs-Bills and more

Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Date: November 2, 2025
Podcast: Sharp or Square (iHeartPodcasts & The Volume)

Episode Overview

In this episode, betting expert Chad Millman and professional sports gambler Simon Hunter do a fast-paced, injury-updated breakdown of their top NFL Week 9 bets. The show is framed as a “behind the scenes” look at how seasoned bettors finalize picks, debate last-minute decisions, and analyze both sharp (professional) and square (public) sides of each major matchup. The duo lock in their five contest bets and share their reasoning, focusing on market movement, key injuries, and their own betting psychology.

Main Picks and Discussion

1. Los Angeles Chargers (-9) at Tennessee Titans

Timestamps: 03:33 - 06:03

• Overview: Reluctant but convinced, Chad and Simon back the Chargers as large, public road favorites—a spot they traditionally avoid.

• Reasoning: Tennessee is heavily depleted, missing elite defender Jeffrey Simmons and other key players (Ridley, Woods, Key).

• Market Movement: Pros hammered Tennessee early, but when books flashed 10, Simon took it as a sign no one was holding the Titans up.

• Simon:

  "This is such a non-bet. We never make a really, really public road favorite after they had a blowout win in a prime time game. But... it's a new age. This is just another back-to-back get right spot for this Chargers team in a great matchup." [05:24]

• Advice: Bet Chargers at -9, avoid at -10 or higher.

2. Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-9)

Timestamps: 06:40 - 08:22

• Overview: Chad’s “choice”—confident in buying the Lions even as the public jumps on board.
• Reasoning: Trust in Goff & Campbell at home; Vikings’ run defense is a liability and rookie QB JJ McCarthy is rusty and in a spot primed for failure.
• Simon:

  “Rusty walking into this. And you talked about the Flores defense. It's not what it was last year... just might be a horrible disaster spot for them." [07:21]

• Market Note: Line was ticking up; expect movement to double-digits by kickoff.
• Consensus: Massive favorite but justified on matchup and historical home edge.

3. Denver Broncos at Houston Texans (-2)

Timestamps: 08:22 - 10:32

• Overview: “Brass balls” pick. Texans are favorites against an ostensibly hotter, first-place Denver team—public sentiment is still skeptical of Houston.
• Reasoning: Houston's defense matches up well, and line move reflects pro confidence. Key injury updates (Nico Collins in for Houston, Pat Surtain out for Denver) tilt favor further.
• Simon:

  "This is going to be the best defense he's faced. This is going to be the best offensive line the Houston's front is faced defensively. So I think it takes a little bit of balls." [09:15]

• Market Note: Books moving to 2.5 shows pros on Houston.

4. Kansas City Chiefs (-2) vs Buffalo Bills

Timestamps: 10:32 - 12:49

• Overview: Another back-and-forth line. Contest number is -1.5, but market fluctuating due to pro money on Buffalo.

• Reasoning: Some professionals see value in Buffalo, but Chad and Simon simply trust Mahomes more; worry about Bills’ defense and Allen’s inconsistent vibe this season.

• Simon:

  “Talk to any real Bills fans. He just doesn't look the same. He looks a little off... This would be the type of game that Josh Allen does show up and put up big numbers and that's what they're going to need here." [11:16]

• Advice: Bet Chiefs at -1.5/-2, wary of any blowout, consider teasers but not keen on middling.

5. Final Pick: Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots

Timestamps: 25:45 - 28:43

• Debate: Chad favored Atlanta at +5.5/+4.5 as a bounce-back, Simon respected the professional move but was less convicted—ultimately, Chad’s confidence wins and Atlanta makes the contest entry.
• Reasoning: Public & sharp money on both sides; Patriots line over-inflated by recent performance, while Falcons trended down after a bad week. Atlanta getting back key players.
• Simon:

  "Very rare do I get bullied at the book about Chad's picks and me missing it ... Just worried. We're just in a new age here and that's my fear." [26:24]

• Strategic Note: Atlanta's receiving backs and weak NE coverage offer clear matchup advantages.

Bonus Segment: "Rock and a Hard Place" Bet — Carolina Panthers (+13) at Green Bay Packers

Timestamps: 15:46 - 19:45

• Reasoning: The number is inflated by recency bias (Carolina's bad game with Dalton, Packers’ strong finish last week). Expect close, ugly game, backdoor always open at a huge spread.
• Simon:

  "This probably should be 10 ... we're getting three points. I mean, there's 13 and a half's out there, people." [17:01]

• Chad on Matt LaFleur:

  "He's kind of a dick and he gave a great answer. They asked him a question in the press conference about Halloween and his answer was, 'I told my assistant, I don't give a shit if it's Halloween. I'm trying to win a game.'” [19:02]

Memorable Quotes

• On late-night betting:

  "I've been getting a lot of shit... even guys I haven't seen in a while came to the book last night because it's just a night you gotta be there." — Simon [04:28]

• On public vs sharp bets:

  "We're having a hard time agreeing on a lot of other games this week." — Chad [12:49]

• On line movement:

  "If you get it right now at 9, I'd still get it people." — Simon on Chargers [05:59]
  "Tickets obviously is on Denver, but the money is on Houston here." — Simon [10:04]

Final Five Bets (as entered in contest):

1. Chargers -9.5 (contest), like at 9
2. Lions -8.5 (contest), comfortable to -9
3. Texans -1.5 (contest), up to -2.5 live
4. Chiefs -1.5 (contest), current line -2
5. Falcons +5.5 (contest), liked +4.5 too

Bonus: Carolina Panthers +13 (favorite big dog “rock and a hard place” pick)

Betting Philosophy & Reflections

• Both hosts reflect on shifting attitudes: More favorites than usual this week (where historically the sharp side fades big favorites).
• Careful to not chase “fishy” lines—e.g. avoiding Bears-Bengals due to odd market signals and skepticism about both teams’ reliability.

Tone & Style

• Conversational and warm, with some playful ribbing and sharp inside jokes about betting culture.
• Refreshing candor about where they’re confident or queasy—never pretending to have it all figured out.

Quick Reference Timestamps

• Chargers-Titans: 03:33 - 06:03
• Vikings-Lions: 06:40 - 08:22
• Broncos-Texans: 08:22 - 10:32
• Chiefs-Bills: 10:32 - 12:49
• Bears-Bengals (avoid): 12:49 - 15:46
• Panthers-Packers: 15:46 - 19:45
• Falcons-Patriots: 25:45 - 28:43
• Final pick confirmation: 28:02 - 28:51 (in order: Chargers, Chiefs, Texans, Lions, Falcons)

For Listeners Who Missed It

This episode is for NFL bettors craving both the logic and feeling behind sharp picks. Chad and Simon give you not just their picks, but frank talk about the messy reality of market movement, second-guessing, and how to gauge whether a bet is truly sharp, square, or somewhere in-between.

No fluff, all betting talk—skip to the game you’re playing, but there’s gold in every segment.