Sharp or Square — Final NFL Wild Card Weekend Bets

Podcast: Sharp or Square
Episode: FINAL NFL Wild Card Weekend Bets: Rams-Panthers, Packers-Bears, Niners-Eagles, Chargers-Patriots and more
Hosts: Chad Millman and Simon Hunter
Date: January 10, 2026

Episode Overview

In this Wild Card Weekend special, betting analyst Chad Millman and professional bettor Simon Hunter dig into every major NFL playoff betting angle — from spreads and totals to sharp–square divides and contest strategy. They process late-breaking injury info, line movement, and the "karma" swirling around fans and teams, all in a race to lock in their final five contest picks. The episode is thick with seasoned insight and fast-paced banter — a must-listen for anyone looking to bet sharper this NFL postseason.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Celebrating Indiana's Win & Betting Karma

• [02:41–07:23] Chad and Simon kick off the episode with high spirits after Indiana’s football victory in Atlanta. Chad gives a vivid account of the electric atmosphere and his decades-long friendship with Matt, a fellow superfan.
  • "The greatest communal event you could possibly imagine. And then as soon as the Ducks scored that touchdown, Matt and I looked at each other... we were willing to sacrifice the Bears because the Bears are on the upswing." — Chad Millman (13:03)

2. Wild Card Weekend Contest Picks Discussion

• [07:23–10:21] The hosts set out to finalize their five contest picks, focusing on close spreads, weather updates, and bookmaker insights.

A. Los Angeles Rams (-10.5) at Carolina Panthers

• Side vs. Total Wrangle: Chad is high on the Rams, willing to lay the points despite the weather; Simon hesitates, preferring the under due to weather worries.
  • "You cannot drag me with you! I'd rather do the total here. With the weather, the safer bet is the under." — Simon Hunter (08:54)
  • Weather cited as a major variable, especially for the Rams' pass-heavy offense.

B. Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (Packers -2.5 in contest; market at -1/-1.5)

• On the Under: Both endorse under 44.5 early due to expected sluggishness and weather, but discussion pivots to the side.
• Side Analysis: Simon pushes for Packers, citing pro money backing at sharper books and Green Bay’s health advantage. Chad concedes, given his emotional investment in Indiana and the improbability of a Bears win.
  • "If you tell me right now we got to put the Packers in... I can't crazy fight you on it." — Chad Millman (13:13)
  • "It's just been never any amount of money the last four days pouring in on the Bears team. Still really, really smart professional money coming on this Packers team even this late." — Simon Hunter (13:30)
• Key Stat: First-time playoff starters historically struggle.

C. San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (Under 44.5)

• Initial Value on Side Gone: The Eagles as a side appeal vanished once the line steamed from -3 to -6.
• Preference for the Under: Both hosts prefer the under, citing defensive matchups, weather, and injury (Trent Williams possibly limited for SF).
  • "This feels like a great, great dominant performance for them defensively with Vic [Fangio]." — Simon Hunter (17:08)

D. Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5) at New England Patriots

• Public/Square–Sharp Split: Despite 60%+ of bets/money on the Patriots, line hasn’t budged — red flag for Simon and Chad who prefer the Chargers.
  • "Every trend tells you this is a bad spot to back the favorite, especially when he's playing a quarterback who has been covering as a dog consistently." — Chad Millman (19:10)
  • Patriots D-line injuries and QB trends also weigh in.

E. Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) vs Houston Texans

• Quick Hit: Both hosts love the Steelers and see them as potential outright winners.

3. Final Bets/Strategy Adjustments

• [30:10–31:49] The hosts review their five contest picks and fine-tune:

  • Shift from Rams under to Rams side (-10.5),

  • Move from Bears under to Packers side (-2.5).

  • Confirm selections:

    1. Packers -2.5
    2. Rams -10.5
    3. Chargers +3.5
    4. Steelers +3.5
    5. Eagles/49ers under 44.5

  • "If I get burned, if it lands on two, I'm gonna feel like such an idiot." — Simon Hunter on Packers -2.5 (31:26)

4. Additional Insights: Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

• [26:58–30:10]
  • Bills-Jags line shifting from Bills -1.5 to pick or Jags -1.
  • Simon's lean: Jags first half, Jags side, and the over in a rare weather-volatile "only over" spot this weekend.
  • "This just feels like it’s gonna be a game where they’re gonna get up early and Josh Allen’s gonna have to pull a miracle to try to pull from behind." — Simon Hunter (29:29)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On betting and fan karma:
  • "At the end of the day, we're fans... we were willing to sacrifice the Bears because the Bears are on the upswing." — Chad Millman (13:03)
• On sharp and square moves:
  • "It's just been never any amount of money the last four days pouring in on the Bears... Still really, really smart professional money coming on this Packers team even this late." — Simon Hunter (13:30)
• On playoff pressure:
  • "First time as a starter, it’s working against Caleb. Hey, miracles do happen... but if they play this game a hundred times, it feels like 60–65 of the time, Green Bay wins." — Simon Hunter (14:19)
• On betting totals and weather:
  • "People overestimate offense... Blindly bet these unders, outdoor totals. Might not hit this year, but continuously long term they will hit." — Simon Hunter (11:19)
• On identifying value:
  • "We loved it right away... If anything it gives us even more confidence that this number hasn't budged." — Simon Hunter (20:29)
• Final contest picks wrap-up:
  • "Packers minus two and a half. Rams minus ten and a half. Chargers plus three and a half. Steelers plus three and a half. And the Eagles, Niners under 44 and a half." — Chad Millman (31:49)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 02:41 — Indiana/Atlanta sports trip story, high fandom energy
• 07:23 — Rams–Panthers pick discussion
• 10:21 — Packers–Bears total and side analysis
• 13:30 — Betting "rock and hard place": Packers argument
• 15:53 — Karma, fan psychology, value talk
• 16:46 — Niners–Eagles, value move from side to under
• 19:13 — Chargers–Patriots, why LA +3.5 is sharp
• 21:05 — Steelers–Texans, confidence in Pitt
• 26:58 — Bills–Jags, over angle, Jags first half, weather notes
• 30:10 — Final five contest picks settled
• 31:49 — Episode closeout, recap of contest entries

Final Five Picks: Wild Card Weekend

1. Packers -2.5
2. Rams -10.5
3. Chargers +3.5
4. Steelers +3.5
5. Eagles–49ers under 44.5

Tone:
Conversational, energetic, and analytic, with characteristic sharp-vs-square framing and plenty of friendly needle between the hosts.

This summary captures each key betting angle, the logic behind picks, notable banter, and the late-breaking contest strategy for NFL Wild Card Weekend. Even listeners who missed the episode will get the full download on where the sharps stand heading into the postseason.