Sharp or Square – FINAL WEEK 16 BETS

Podcast: Sharp or Square
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Episode Date: December 21, 2025
Episode Theme:
Chad Millman and Simon Hunter, seasoned sports betting experts, break down the most pivotal NFL Week 16 games. They challenge each other on “sharp” (professional-like) and “square” (public) sides of the betting action, focusing on line value, team form, and market movements to solidify their final five contest picks. This week’s episode is rich with analysis, game theory, and candid debate.

Main Theme & Purpose

This episode is the big finale for NFL Week 16 picks. Chad and Simon go in-depth on their favorite sides, discuss sharp vs. square narratives, and openly debate tough calls involving teams like the Bears, Panthers, Bills, Jaguars, Lions, Patriots, and more. They tackle everything from emotional fan reactions to high-level betting strategies — all in pursuit of a profitable and principled betting card for the contest.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Bears-Packers Recap: The Roller Coaster of Betting on the Bears

[03:39–06:26]

• Chad’s disbelief in the Bears’ comeback win:
  “I'm gobsmacked. This isn't what happens to the Bears. We are not the team that comes from 10 down in the final two minutes ... We're the team that trades up to get Mitch Trubisky and passes over Patrick Mahomes. This is just not. This is not the Bears.” (Chad Millman, 03:39)
• Simon on the Bears’ miraculous late-game identity and coaching difference:
  “This whole year feels like every time I bet on this team they leave me scratching my head for three quarters and all of a sudden that magical fourth quarter comes around ... It's crazy. It's a crazy identity.” (Simon Hunter, 04:34)
• Both recap the nerve-wracking series of events—penalties, onside kicks—and how small mistakes swing outcomes for bettors and teams.

Betting Philosophy: Responding to Good and Bad Beats

[06:26–08:03]

• Discuss how penalties and little moments shift entire games.
• Admit to frustrating Commanders loss and urge moving forward:
  “We’ve got to move on to Sunday brother. Let’s get to it ... make some regretful, utterly human decisions ... and get to our final five.” (Chad Millman, 06:26)

Final Five Bets Breakdown

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (+3.5)

[08:05–10:32]

• Hosts love the Panthers +3.5, especially at home as underdogs.
• Simon’s stats: Carolina is “6–0 against the spread, 5–1 straight up after losses.”
• Bucs are reeling emotionally (“vibes could be any worse”) and failing to cover as favorites.
• Market advice: Grab +3.5 now as line could drop to +2.5.
• Quote:
  “This just feels like such a number spot for this Panthers team where this should be a pick ... We're waiting for [the Bucs] to be this dominant playoff team they've been these last three years and they just have not been that team.” (Simon Hunter, 09:14)
• Chad highlights fourth quarter magic:
  “Bryce Young the most fourth quarter overtime touchdowns since 2023... Dave Canales makes risky calls. Bryce Young follows through. That's what we're betting on.” (Chad Millman, 10:32)

2. Buffalo Bills (-10.5) at Cleveland Browns

[11:07–13:40]

• Conversely, they are taking a very public side with the Bills -10.5 (“the publicly, publicly, publicly play of the season for us”).
• Why? The Browns offense with Shador Sanders is unconvincing; Josh Allen thrives against tough defenses and the Browns' D has weakened against quality run games.
• Simon:
  “This is ... one of our more public plays ... Doesn't get more public than this ... I have it in a model at 13.” (Simon Hunter, 11:54)
• Chad:
  “This is really a bet against Shador Sanders and this Browns offense being able to score enough points to keep it close. We just haven't seen the evidence that they can do that.” (Chad Millman, 13:40)

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) at Denver Broncos

[14:51–16:54]

• Hosts are wary of both quarterbacks (Bo Nix, Trevor Lawrence) but play the number.
• Why the Jags? Dominant on offense recently, running and scoring at will. Jaguars’ defense contains the run—forces Bo Nix to win with his arm.
• Market insight: Pro money on Denver, but hosts see “pros taking a bad number.”
• Simon:
  “We’re really playing the number ... If this is two and a half, I wouldn’t have really forced us to take this ... Three and a half, I can’t avoid it.” (Simon Hunter, 16:21)

4. Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions (-6.5)

[16:54–19:23]

• Leaning into Detroit’s historical strength after a loss (“Campbell is 14-1 against the spread after a loss”).
• Game moved to -7.5, but they’re happy to have gotten -6.5 in the contest.
• Fading Steelers’ recent defensive form and questionable offense.
• Simon admits:
  “We know this Lions team, the Bills, probably gonna be the two most bet on numbers and sides for the general public. So very public plays here. But it really is all about the number ... I just can’t avoid it. I love the lines here.” (Simon Hunter, 18:16)

5. New England Patriots (+3.5) at Baltimore Ravens

[19:23–22:05]

• Chad’s pick, but admits to nerves as pro money pours in on Baltimore.
• Hosts agree Ravens struggle to win by margin; Patriots have been strong against the run and remain competitive.
• Simon on Ravens/Patriots:
  “The Bills have not passed any type of eye test this entire season and it's just something that's off with Lamar ... The Patriots ... dominate first halves and totally get outplayed ... in the second half.” (Simon Hunter, 20:05–20:55)
• **Still, they trust coaching and trends with the hook at +3.5 as valuable.

Lines, Contest, and Last-Minute Decisions

[27:28–33:29]

• Debate over the Giants (+2.5) vs. Vikings: Love the position at +3 but less inclined at +2.5.
• Touch on other considered teams: Tennessee, Dallas, Colts, Cardinals, Raiders.
• **Simon floats Colts (+5.5–6) at 49ers as the ‘sharpest line’, with historical success and schematic edges, but Chad’s loyalty to Bill Belichick and the number keeps the Pats as the fifth pick.

Memorable Quotes

• Chad Millman [on betting as a Bears fan, 03:39]:
  “I'm gobsmacked. This isn't what happens to the Bears ... We are not the team that comes from 10 down in the final two minutes ... We're the team that trades up to get Mitch Trubisky and passes over Patrick Mahomes. This is just not. This is not the Bears.”
• Simon Hunter [on Carolina, 09:14]:
  “This just feels like such a number spot for the Panthers team ... this should be a pick ... we're waiting for [the Bucs] to be this dominant playoff team ... and they just have not been that team.”
• Simon Hunter [on the Bills-Browns, 11:54]:
  “I have it in a model at 13. If you're back in the Browns here ... you really need to lean into the elements ... Josh Allen, he's used to playing this type of weather.”
• Chad Millman [on the Jags-Broncos, 14:13]:
  “I can't believe we're betting Trevor Lawrence. Like, it's Bo Nix, Trevor Lawrence, we don't like either of them. So all of a sudden we're taking the hook with the quarterback that I guess we're going to live with.”
• Simon Hunter [on contest nerves, 32:45]:
  “I can't get talked out of the New England one because … I think it's such a good number and it's such a good variable spot.”

Final Five Contest Picks (Week 16)

| Game | Side & Line | Reasoning Highlights | |----------------------------------------|------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------| | Tampa Bay at Carolina | Carolina +3.5 | Love the 'home dog' spot, fading Bucs’ poor vibes & inflated line | | Buffalo at Cleveland | Buffalo -10.5 | Trust explosive Bills; Browns offense unreliable | | Jacksonville at Denver | Jacksonville +3.5| Playing the number; Jags’ recent offensive surge, contain Broncos’ run| | Pittsburgh at Detroit | Detroit -6.5 | Bounce-back spot for elite ATS Lions; Steelers offense questionable | | New England at Baltimore | New England +3.5 | Bet on Belichick/Patriots keeping it close w/ the hook |

Notable Timestamps

• Bears Emotional Recap: 03:39–06:26
• Tampa-Carolina Analysis: 08:05–10:32
• Buffalo-Cleveland Breakdown: 11:07–13:40
• Jacksonville-Denver Debate: 14:51–16:54
• Pittsburgh-Detroit Discussion: 16:54–19:23
• New England-Baltimore Dilemma: 19:23–22:05
• Last-Minute Card Tweaks, Giants/Colts/Debate: 27:28–33:29
• Final Card Recap: 33:30–34:51

Tone & Atmosphere

• Conversational, honest, lightly irreverent.
• Chad is emotional and self-deprecating about his Bears fandom and betting angst.
• Simon takes a pragmatic, data-and-line-driven approach, but loves throwing in “weird” historic trends and anti-public leans.
• Above all, energetic debate and mutual respect—never shying away from tough betting decisions.

For Listeners Who Missed the Episode:

This breakdown brings you all the actionable takes, heartfelt fan moments, and expert reasoning that drive Chad & Simon's picks. The podcast provides a masterclass in balancing model-driven edge with contest strategy, emotional discipline, and instinct—the ultimate “sharp or square” debate for serious and casual NFL bettors alike.