Sharp or Square – FINAL WEEK 17 BETS
Podcast: Sharp or Square
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Release Date: December 29, 2025
Episode: FINAL WEEK 17 BETS – Seahawks-Panthers, Patriots-Jets, Eagles-Bills, Steelers-Browns, Bears-Niners, and more
Episode Overview
This episode is a “semi-stripped down, in-the-room” edition, where betting expert Chad Millman and professional gambler Simon Hunter run through their favorite NFL Week 17 picks, break down line movements, and debate whether each side is “sharp” (wise guy money) or “square” (public/chalky bets). The focus is on contest picks and real bets, as well as understanding public vs. professional money, injuries, team motivation, and classic betting angles for these high-stakes late-season games.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Seattle Seahawks (-7.5) at Carolina Panthers
[04:51]
- Sharp or Square? LEAN SHARP on Seattle. Fading the public dog (Carolina).
- Logic: “Lots of tickets on the Panthers. So I like fading the public here. This is clearly going to be the public dog of the week.” – Chad [04:51]
- Simon notes the Seahawks defense is “probably the best defense Panthers will play all season” and expects Carolina to struggle—especially with rookie QB Bryce Young—citing previous poor performances against elite defenses (i.e., San Francisco game).
- "It’s painful to do it… but I really like this match for the Seahawks team and I think it's another game where they're going to show why they right now are the 1 seed." – Simon [05:14]
2. New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans (+2.5 in contest, down to +1.5)
[06:20]
- Sharp or Square? SHARP side is Tennessee.
- Line Movement: Heavy public on Saints; reverse line movement towards Tennessee signals sharp money.
- “All the tickets are on New Orleans. So we do have some reverse line movement here with the public coming in on New Orleans and the professionals betting Tennessee.” – Chad [06:56]
- Simon expects “chaos” with two rookie QBs and doesn’t think the exact number will matter much; likes Tennessee due to letdown spot and overhyped Saints following last week's big win.
- “This feels like a Tennessee spot. A Tennessee number. They shouldn’t have been a dog. This should have been a pick or maybe a small favorite on Tennessee." – Simon [08:02]
3. Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (+3.5)
[08:46]
- Sharp or Square? Contrarian but rooted in past successful angles—betting Browns at home.
- Key Angle: Betting Cleveland home dogs in division games.
- “We always blindly bet the Browns at home here and, you know, it's crazy. Four of the last five, they've won outright against the Pittsburgh Steelers in this exact spot.” – Simon [10:10]
- Both hosts admit it never feels good backing the Browns, but history and matchups (Browns run game vs. Steelers D missing key players) say the number holds value.
- "I do look at this Brown team. That is their identity of the day, right? It’s not Shador. It’s that run game..." – Simon [11:03]
- Simon relieved at the +3.5: “Honestly makes me feel better… I do think this game does feel like it’s going to land right on three.” [11:20]
4. Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills (-2)
[11:32]
- Sharp or Square? Public is all over Buffalo, but the hosts agree with the line movement and the logic.
- Key Factors: Josh Allen’s health, weather, Eagles' issues vs. mobile QBs, Bills' rushing attack vs. Philly's weak run D.
- "We’ve been betting into this all week… We're betting against [Philly] not being able to contain a mobile quarterback and hoping that a mobile quarterback can be effective even when he's injured." – Chad [13:01]
- Simon’s one concern: “This is gonna be by far our biggest public play. All public money and I think the public has the same view as we did. It's just the Bills feel like they're gonna be the more desperate team." – Simon [13:13]
- Still, their conviction is strong: "Anything you get under three, I would take it here on the Bills at home." – Simon [14:15]
5. Chicago Bears (+3.5) at San Francisco 49ers
[14:18]
- Emotional Hedge! Chad has Super Bowl futures on the 49ers, but the Bears (his team) getting points is too much to pass up.
- “At the end of the day, we’re getting the hook for the Bears that have a great running game and we're leaning into their magic a little bit. I gotta tell you, I'm just tailing you on this one.” – Chad [15:19]
- Simon amazed at Chad’s attitude: “What is wrong with you right now? You are a beaten down Bears fan… Oh my God. I can't get over what you just said.” [15:31]
- Simon breaks down why the Bears “match-up wise” are dangerous against the 49ers: “As great as this 49ers team has been… They have to get bit eventually by this defense… They have zero pass rush. It's alarming when you break down the numbers how bad their defensive line is.” [16:00]
- “Another game, I’m happy we’re getting a great number—three and a half—on this Bears team. I think this is a game where they could easily win outright.” – Simon [17:06]
6. Other Games & Discussion
a. New York Giants at Las Vegas Raiders
[23:32]
- Initial leans shifted when Max Crosby was ruled out. Simon expresses frustration: “This is my life's work. Why would I not want to play in this game?” – Simon [24:17]
- Game has become a pure fade/toss-out: “Both teams are tank-offing right now.” – Simon [25:31]
b. New England Patriots at New York Jets (+13.5)
[26:50]
- Chad calls it a “blind bet” situationally, but Simon rejects it: “There's a huge difference between this and that Chiefs game, right? The Jets literally have none of what I just said [coaching, experience]. … I just think they've totally quit on the season and they just have horrible coaching.” – Simon [28:01]
- Simon also notes key Patriots injuries could play a role: “That Mac Hollins injury is going to be a huge deal for them in the playoffs…” [29:13]
- Chad wants to revisit bonus/incentive angles for player props in the Tuesday show.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- Chad: “Let my legacy be the Texans covering and winning. … I don't sound like it. Definitely not feeling perfect. But I will feel better if we have a great day today, brother.” [03:46]
- Simon on Carolina: “Painful to go against our Carolina Panthers here, but really like this match for the Seahawks team and I think it's another game where they're going to show why they right now are the 1 seed. They're just a really dominant team, so well coached.” [05:14]
- Simon: “It’s never good to really be hammering the public dog… it does hit… but for this matchup…I think people are overlooking this game.” [05:14]
- Chad: “We always blindly bet the Browns at home here and, you know, it's crazy. Four of the last five, they've won outright against the Pittsburgh Steelers in this exact spot.” [10:10]
- Simon, on Chad's Bears Super Bowl hedge: “I am shocked to hear you say this nonsense… You are a beaten down Bears fan. Oh my God. I can't get over what you just said.” [15:31]
- Simon, on the Patriots-Jets: “I just think they've totally quit on the season and they just have horrible coaching. So, I cannot put money into it.” [28:25]
Final Betting Card (Hosts' Official Contest Picks)
[30:15]
- Seattle Seahawks (-7.5)
- Tennessee Titans (+2.5)
- Cleveland Browns (+3.5)
- Buffalo Bills (-2)
- Chicago Bears (+3.5)
“Those are going to be the games that we are playing.” – Chad [30:11]
Timestamps for Important Segments
- Show Start & Banter: 03:20
- Seahawks at Panthers: 04:51
- Saints at Titans: 06:20
- Steelers at Browns: 08:46
- Eagles at Bills: 11:32
- Bears at Niners: 14:18
- Giants at Raiders: 23:32
- Patriots at Jets: 26:50
- Final Five Picks Recap: 30:15
Podcast Tone
- Straightforward, analytical, and banter-rich: The hosts share data-driven insights but also inject plenty of levity, personal bias (Chad’s Bears fandom), and candid takes on emotional hedging and classic betting psychology.
- Transparency in thinking: Both are honest when a pick “doesn’t feel good,” but they explain why they’re sticking with their model or historical angle.
- Engaged with listener community: Several reminders about contest tracking and future episode plans (player incentives, trades).
In summary:
This episode of Sharp or Square is a fast-paced, candid, and insight-rich breakdown of the week’s top NFL bets, balancing contrarian sharp logic with realistic appraisals of team motivation, matchup advantages, and emotional traps. It's invaluable listening for recreational and sharp bettors alike looking to gain an edge for NFL Week 17.