Sharp or Square – FINAL WEEK 18 BETS
Podcast: Sharp or Square
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Date: January 4, 2026
Episode Theme:
Betting expert Chad Millman and professional gambler Simon Hunter break down the NFL’s pivotal Week 18, evaluating where the sharp (professional) vs. square (public) money is going. The hosts dissect the biggest games and lines, highlighting sharp plays, moneyline parlays, and value picks, all while giving listeners a peek into their own contest strategy and picks.
Main Theme & Purpose
Chad and Simon provide a candid, insider’s view into their Week 18 NFL betting process. The duo debates the sharpness or squareness of major matchups, analyzes late-season motivation, line movement, and injury impacts, and reveal the five official contest picks locked in for their pro football pick’m contest. The episode’s tone is both analytical and relatable, inviting listeners to eavesdrop on the decisive, and sometimes gut-wrenching, process behind high-stakes NFL betting in the season finale.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
Brass Balls Recap & Recent Results (00:45)
- Panthers Game: Chad and Simon celebrate their gutsy bet on the Panthers, praising Bryce Young’s clutch performance and their read of Carolina’s comeback tendencies.
- Quote (Chad, 00:55): “12 of their 14 wins in that time frame had been comebacks. It was the full Bryce Young Carolina Panthers experience. And we got it with the brass balls.”
- Simon laments backing the 49ers, citing Purdy’s "worst game" and unusual play-calling from Shanahan.
Contest Process, Dynamic Lines, and Strategy (03:13)
- Contest lines are dynamic, updating as the week progresses—Chad encourages playing both early and late to capture value.
- The vibe for Week 18 is cautious, with multiple tough decisions looming.
- Quote (Chad, 03:16): “This is the stripped down in the room eavesdropping version of Sharper Square. We’re gonna make some tough decisions today. You guys are gonna hear it all…”
Game-by-Game Betting Breakdown
1. New Orleans Saints +3.5 @ Atlanta Falcons (04:36)
- The hosts discuss the significant stakes: a Falcons win would send the Panthers to the playoffs, a Saints win sends the Bucs.
- Chris Olave is out, worrying both Simon and Chad, but Simon notes the “weak rookie class” and Tyler Shuck’s candidacy for Rookie of the Year as an angle.
- Simon is excited to see how the game starts: “If they get a big 7-0 lead by the Saints, I’ll feel much more comfortable…” (06:42)
- Despite nerves, they stick to the Saints due to contest value and the number.
- Sharp Rationale: “A lot of these dogs, I do like them, but it’s gonna be interesting... I could see the Atlanta Falcons being much more committed to this game than the Saints.”
2. Cincinnati Bengals -7.5 vs. Cleveland Browns (07:11)
- Labeled their “Rock & Our Plays Bet of the Week.”
- Chad: "We are always going to bet against the Browns on the road."
- Cincy’s motivation: building for next year, strong offensive performances late in season.
- “Joe is going to go out there backyard it up. He loves playing ball.” (07:45)
- Simon’s key stat: Browns are 0-6 ATS after a win in the last 2 years.
- Sharp money expected, line may move to -8 or more by kickoff.
- Quote (Simon, 10:16): “You can still get Bengals seven and a half at Hard Rock, but a lot of other books now are popping up eight, eight and a half.”
3. Detroit Lions +3 (@ Chicago Bears) (10:16)
- Simon says this is the “definition of a buy low spot” for Detroit. The Bears’ defense has outperformed expectations, but lack DL firepower to exploit Lions’ weakness.
- “Lions are going to lay it all out there... their Achilles heel this season has been that offensive line.” (11:18)
- Bears get sharp money, but hosts go contrarian with Detroit due to contest line and turnover-laden last outing skewing perceptions.
4. L.A. Rams -7.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals (13:13)
- Hosts locked Rams early at -7.5 for extreme value; line has soared to -13.5.
- Quote (Chad, 14:04): “This is going to be the pivot point game for us this week about changes… We’ve been betting at seven, seven and a half a week. I would not recommend anyone beat at 13 and a half.”
- Simon expects McVay and Stafford to aggressively chase scores and rhythm, and Stafford’s MVP candidacy provides personal incentive.
- “McVay, I can never see him running the clock out… just putting up a ton of points.” (14:04)
- Massive closing line value: “Six points of value here.” (14:48)
5. Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 @ Baltimore Ravens (15:14)
- Despite Lamar playing, hosts see this as a “rah rah Mike Tomlin spot.”
- Chad skeptical of Ravens defense, values the “hook” for Steelers at +3.5.
- Simon expects public money on Baltimore to move line, potentially reachable +4/+4.5.
- “You just need to take the dogs. And me and Chad, we paid dearly... but even if we get burned here, it’s a long term winner.” (16:37)
- “Whenever it’s 3 or above underdog in this exact matchup, it’s 71% success rate, cover rate... for the dog.” (18:38)
Additional Notable Matchups
Eagles -4 vs. Washington (21:30)
- With backup QB Tanner McKee starting, market dropped Philly’s line from -7 to -4.
- Simon likes the Eagles given backups still playing hard, and McKee’s upside akin to “Nick Foles.”
- “Washington…total, total lost season… just have a hard time thinking you’re going to get up for this game.” (23:01)
Dallas Cowboys -3 @ New York Giants (23:01)
- Cowboys need motivation; Giants have draft incentive to lose.
- Despite everything seeming pro-Cowboys, line has drifted to -3, and sharps are backing the Giants.
- Simon: “This is Seattle-49ers all over again. The pros I talked to, they’re all on the opposite side of me…” (24:06)
- Chad: “We can’t see why the money is coming in on the Giants. We both feel like we’re missing something…” (24:06)
- Ultimately, they wouldn’t put it in the contest, but would take Dallas if forced.
Official Contest Five (26:00)
Locked Picks:
- Saints +3.5
- Bengals -7.5
- Lions +3.5
- Rams -7.5 (line now 13.5, but hosts locked early)
- Steelers +3.5
- Chad & Simon discuss possibly changing picks to Eagles/Cowboys if the Rams were lost, but decide to stick with their five due to strong numbers and limited appealing alternatives.
Notable Quotes & Moments
- On betting process: “This is the stripped down in the room eavesdropping version of Sharper Square. We’re gonna make some tough decisions today. You guys are gonna hear it all…” (03:16)
- On line movement: “If you were smart, you’ve been keeping track and paying attention and you either put picks in early and then you make changes later in the week…” (03:13)
- On Rams line move: “This is such an incredible, incredible value. I’m happy to keep our picks as is. Just because you’re six points of value here.” (14:48)
- On season-end betting: “These teams, they peak late in the season. They want to finish on a high note… Bengals line up for all those things.” (08:52)
- Tomlin voodoo: “It’s the Tomlin voodoo at the end of the day.” (17:48)
Timestamps of Key Segments
- Panthers “brass balls” win/49ers woes: 00:45–02:49
- Contest lines, betting process: 03:13–04:36
- Saints-Falcons breakdown: 04:36–07:11
- Bengals-Browns deep dive: 07:11–10:16
- Lions-Bears buy low case: 10:16–13:13
- Rams-Cardinals closing line value: 13:13–15:14
- Steelers-Ravens dog rationale: 15:14–18:42
- Eagles-Washington & Cowboys-Giants sidebars: 21:30–25:53
- Contest five, final decisions: 26:00–27:05
Final Thoughts
Chad and Simon offer a masterclass in contest betting dynamics, emphasizing the importance of timing, motivations, late-season psychology, and how to sniff out market overreactions in Week 18’s often chaotic landscape. They ultimately stick with the contest picks that provide the best blend of sharp logic, value, and trusted system edges, giving listeners transparent insight into what it means to be “sharp” in crunch time.