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Sharp or Square
FINAL WEEK 18 BETS - Bears-Lions, Ravens-Steelers, Packers-Vikings, Cardinals-Rams, Jets-Bills and more
00:28:13
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- [00:00]
A
This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.
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B
Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock Vet. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Melman. I am joined as always by my bff, my companion, my compadre, my co host, professional better Simon Hunter. Hello.
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A
So time, Chad. What a week of football we've had, my friend.
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B
Dude. We can talk about the Indiana Hoosiers. I appreciate everyone giving their love, attention, good karma, good vibes to the Hoosiers. I will be going to Atlanta next week.
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A
Wow.
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B
The Hooers.
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A
Good man.
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B
Game for the final four. Game for the Hoosiers against Oregon. Bigger news, the Panthers, boy, did they come through for us on the brass balls. It kind of played out, no joke, exactly as we expected it to. Bryce Young in the clutch at the end of the game, making at least one play in the exact moment he needed to make the play. This is why we've loved the Panthers. It's why we've bet the Panthers. He's done this so many times. They had that great graphic that he's had more 4th quarter OT wins than any quarterback in the NFL since 23. 12 of them, 12 of their 14 wins in that time frame had been comebacks. It was the full Bryce Young Carolina Panthers experience. And we got it with the brass balls.
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A
Yeah, bizarre game. I don't know about you. When you flipped on the tv, then you saw it was torrential downpouring. I was like, oh my God.
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B
I was a little worried.
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A
Yeah, this is going to be quite an experience. But it's also a reminder why we don't want domes. It's just there games in the elements in, you know, late December, early January, that's just, it's just the best. But yeah, this, this Bucks team, I don't know what they're going to do in the off season. I don't know if they're going to keep Todd Bowles. But in a must win game, you have Mike Evans having two catches. You have goin with one catch and a Mecca book with one catch for eight yards. I mean, it's so broken there, I don't know what they need to do. But the first drive Baker couldn't miss, guys were wide open and the rest of the game was just a brutal struggle. So, yeah, very happy we covered. Very emotional game. Unfortunately, I was on the 49ers side and that, that did not. That was Purdy's worst game. I think I've seen him play in his career. I think that's the only time Shanahan has ever only scored three points as an offense. And I don't know about you, I, I literally thought we were in that game the whole first half. And then basically they sacked Sam Darnold before the first half ended and Shannon didn't call any of his timeouts.
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B
I know. It was so weird.
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A
I was like, oh my God, this man has no confidence right now in this offense. So tons of props. Seattle's defense, they were the best unit coming into the game. They showed up. You know, anytime we hold, you hold Seattle's office at 13 points, you think, all right, we should probably win or cover this game. Now we got, we got the worst game possible. So one on one on the Saturday. So if we can bounce back today, come Sunday.
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B
No. Trent Williams killed the Niners. That line moved to three before kickoff. By the way, I know you were worried about this. Rico Dowdo had 10 yards rushing. He did need seven to get to his million dollar bonus in total scrimmage yards. He also had 25 yards receiving, did not get his anytime touchdown. So he didn't get his $250,000 bonus. He did get the million though. So good for the Panthers to still be in it. Good for Rico Dowdle. Let's get into it. This is the strip down in the room eavesdropping version of Sharper Square. We're going to make some tough decisions today. You guys are going to hear it all and then we will recap it later tonight. You can see the dynamic contest lines. Simon and I are playing at the free Sharper Square pro football pick them contest. If you signed up to play at sharpersquared@thevolume.com you can follow Simon and I, Chad and Simon or BF. Chad and Simon BFFs. So remember, these lines are dynamic. They open on Tuesday. You can play them at any time between Tuesday and Sunday. So some of these lines we're talking about, there have been crazy moves. If you were smart, you've been keeping track and paying attention and you either put picks in early and then you make changes later in the week or you're playing the lines as they stand today. Are you ready, brother?
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A
Let's go.
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B
All right, first one up, New Orleans plus three and a half in Atlanta. We're kind of on this in honor of the Tyler Schuck for a million dollars game. It has real meaning now because if the Falcons win, the Panthers are in the playoffs. If the Saints win, the Bucks are in the playoffs. Chris Olave is out. So that worries us. How do you think Tettero McMillan had a really good game yesterday and obviously had that catch that put him in a position to score at the end of the game. His odds for Rookie of the Year have improved since last night, so it's a longer number for Tyler Schuck right now. How are you watching this game since you have significant opportunities and in Tyler Schuck Rookie of the Year futures right now.
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A
Yeah. And like I said, going to the game, if they win the division, you know, Carolina wins the division, it'd be hard not to give the Tet. Especially the fact he went over a thousand yards.
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B
Yeah, he's over a thousand yards now, too.
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A
Yeah. And it's just in a very, very weak rookie class. He is the only one that really consistently played well the entire season for a.
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B
For a team in contention.
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A
Yeah. So it's. It's his award. And this type of game where Shuck needs basically a throw for, I don't know, 352 touchdowns, no picks, and win the game. That's basically the only way I could see him kind of pulling it out here. Just because he does have the opportunity. The last thing people see tends to be the way a lot of these voters vote. So he does show up and play really well, win this game. I could see him, give it to him. But you just said it's all. It's all stacked against him here. Playing against Atlanta team that is probably the healthiest they've been in five, six weeks defensively, offensively, and unfortunately for him, he's missing Olave. So that's why this number has gone up to three and a half. So, yeah, we're. We're taking it. We have this number locked in. It's just a tough week with these dogs. Like a lot of these dogs. I do like them, but it's gonna be interesting just see how this one plays out. Where I could see the Atlanta Falcons being much more committed to this game than I could see this Saints.
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B
Yes.
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A
I'm. I'm excited to see how this one starts. Just because we're lucky enough, Chad, we get a big 70 start, lead by the Saints. I'll feel much more comfortable and throw down by 14 going into halftime. It just feels type of game. Third down here. I know which conference I have in the Saints team where on the flip side with Atlanta, you know, as good as they've been, they are another team that have been totally upside down, up and down, I should say, this season. So you know we'll see. Kirk Cousins is a big three and a half point favorite. That's a lot of points for Kirk to be catching these days.
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B
He's been much better. They've been much better with Kirk Cousins the last five weeks than they were in the beginning of the season with Michael Penix and now they'll be full. They'll have Drake London, they'll have Kyle Pitts left Bijan their defensive and playing much, much better. Interesting matchup. It's one there's two games in here that I'm pretty nervous about that we're going to talk about in the first five that we have locked in right now. Cleveland and Cincinnati. Cincinnati minus seven and a half. Simon this is going to be our Rock and our plays bet of the week presented by Hard Rock Bet. We know the Bengals defense is suspect but we are always going to bet against the Browns on the road. And and I will say it again, Joe Burrow the past five games take away that Joe's in his feelings game against the Ravens where it felt like he was a ghost and they lost 24 nothing. They're averaging nearly 40 points a game and we know that they are the kind of team and franchise that talks about building on success and we know they like to win out at the end of the year so they can go into next year feeling good. They have talked about it. So Joe is going to go out there backyard it up. He loves playing ball. He's got Jamar Chase. He's going to try to light it up as much as he can. I'm on the Bengals at the 7. I think I'm also big on the Bengals and the Rams money line. Today we're going with the Bengals.
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A
I think we're both in the same place with this one. We think this is a total open it up, you know, put up big numbers. We're heading to the off season type of team for this Bengals and we see it every year, right? These teams. Yeah, like that's our worry with Atlanta right now. Like, like these teams, they peak late in the season. They want to finish on a high note. The Bengals line up for all those things. On the flip side, Cleveland, I gave out that stat since last year after a win. Last two seasons they're 0 and 6 against the spread after a straight up win. So it's just a team that has not handled success well and we joked it's all about the sack. Right. I, I, I can just easily see this Miles Garrett getting the sack and then them totally shutting him down defensively and once he's out that just, I mean it's kind of neutralized their pass for us. So give me a really interesting matchup. And I just cannot see Cleveland's offense keeping up with the Cincy offense. I think they're already down now. So they're down their star rookie running back and they're rookie tight end Harrow fan. Yeah, it's all on Sanders here. So just a bad spot for them. So yeah, we, we love this one and I hope people can hear this and get it now. This is just, just like all these other, these other favorites going up way, going up high. This is going to get up to minus eight, minus eight and a half by kickoff. I think, I just think tons of money. Just like you said, the money line parlays are going to be factored in between the Bengals, the Rams, all these teams. It's going to drive a lot of these lines up. You can still get Bengals seven and a half at Hard Rock, but a lot of other books now are popping up. Eight, eight and a half.
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B
Another game that's making us a little bit nervous. Detroit Lions, it's plus three at Hard Rock.
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Bad.
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B
It's three and a half in most places. And in our cont visiting the Chicago Bears, all the conversation about the Bears right now. Can Caleb Williams get 270 yards to get to 4,000 yards? I know Ben Johnson doesn't give a shit about that. He's going to play the game plan that's going to give them the most chances at winning this game and confirming their seating position. We know they've got a little bit of an advantage. They got to be thinking about that because the Eagles are going to be resting starters. So money has been coming in at least at Hard Rock on the Lions the line. The line has moved from three and a half down to three. We are on the Lions here. I like I woke up this morning, I'm like why are we on the Lions? I have no feeling for this game right now.
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A
You know we're supposed to be though. This is as low as it can get for this Lions team. I just don't know when that's right.
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B
It's a buy low spot.
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A
It is the definition of one is and it's the definition of selling. This Bears team that very and very like I said all year, it's been so impressive what they've done with just a ragtapp type of group on that defense. Right. They've had an insane amount of injuries and I think you still lead the league in turnover margin. Like, it's just incredible what they've done. They've been such a risk reward type of defense. And yeah, if you're a Bears fan, I think you have the same mentality I do. You just need to outscore this Lions team. That's what this is going to be all about. Just because the Lions are going to lay it all out there, right? Their Achilles heel this season has been that offensive line. Do you guys have the guys that can really make a difference on that defensive line?
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B
We do not.
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A
And that's the issue there. So I can see this being like the old days of the Lions. That man Campbell is going to try to run the ball 35 times. He just seems hell bent on running the ball in this game and setting the tone. Head into the off season with this team. So, yeah, the lines, you know, I can't get over how this point of a year it is, but they know it's been the injuries. So for. For this Bears team, can they live up to this moment, Chad, after having such a letdown and that Sunday night game, right. They lost the one seed. Now they're playing for the two team. Still a huge deal. Right. They're still going to get up for that. But I'm really interested how this young team handles that. And that's. That's why I'm banking this Detroit team, especially with the number and it's all money, all the tickets, everything is pouring in on this Bears team right now. Like, I'm looking at a couple different books. 80 of the money is on this Bears team. So, you know, I get where the public's coming from. The Lions have their. Last time we saw them play, I think they have five turnovers against the Vikings. Just embarrass themselves game. But it's the number, Chad. If it was two and a half, two, you could have talked into this Bears team. But a three, Three and a half? Come on, you got to take the lines. The Bears, even against bad teams this year, they just play close games. It's just who they are. They play these type of close games. So give me the three in the hook with this Lions team.
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B
All right, fine. Arizona at the Los Angeles Rams. Crazy line move in this one. We've been talking about the Rams all week. Hopefully people were listening. The line had been seven last Sunday. We were betting at seven. Seven and a half. We have locked it in at seven and a half in the contest. This is going to be the pivot point game for us this week about changes. We want to make because the line is now 13 and a half. So we're getting a massive, massive advantage. We're getting a great number in the contest. We've been betting it at seven, seven and a half a week. I would not recommend anyone better than 13 and a half. So we're not saying take them, take the Rams right now, put them in some Moneyline parlays. But how are we not loving this right now?
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A
Yeah, love it. Like I said, though, I think I said on Thursday show, I don't hate if this number got up to what it is at now, 13, 13 half. Just because what I talked about. This is the type of game where McVeigh, I can never see him, you know, running the clock out. I just think he wants to just get this offense and then best rhythm he could possibly get, which is just putting up a ton of points. And I gave you my whole Stafford pitch about mvp. Yeah, he needs to get the three touchdowns and he joins that magical club of Brading Aaron Rodgers with 45 touchdowns, under 10 interceptions, both one MVP. So there are some weird numbers here where the Rams are going to try to go after it. But you're right, the, the scary part is this number jumps six points because what, they're playing for the fifth seed now.
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B
Yeah, exactly right.
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Kind of an insane movement. Yeah. Like we talked about, I hope people took the Rams and they could have got it a better number. And yeah, this is not like you said, we're locked in here. If we were going to take any game, I think we both agree it probably would be the Saints. But this is such an incredible, incredible value. I'm, I'm happy to keep our, keep our picks as is. Just because you're six points of value here. You know, my only other great is we didn't take the Vikings, but this one.
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B
Yeah, I, I regret that as well. My bad. Baltimore at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh plus three and a half. Lamar is playing. This line hasn't budged.
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A
No.
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B
Lamar hasn't looked good all season. Struggling running the ball. He's now coming off a back injury. It's a rah rah Mike Tomlin spot. The other day we were thinking maybe we like it more that Lamar is playing instead of Snoop Huntley because we don't know how healthy he's going to be. And there's a lot of drama going on in the Ravens right now. End of the day, I'll say it again, I don't think this Ravens defense is very good. So to me, that's the on field value in getting the hook for the Steelers at three and a half.
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A
Yeah and there actually is a little bit of lime like Hard Rock in Jersey now has moved the four. So like I said, I think I said that on Thursday show that if Lamar does get cleared you could get some four, four and a halfs. The way it's looking now, I do think we get there by kickoff. I just think the public will keep coming on the Ravens and just keep betting this number up. So I do think you might be able to get a 4 if you're patient here on the Steelers if that's what you want. But you know this is another game where you try to make sense of it and you're going to drive yourself crazy. These matchups never make sense. You just need to take the dogs. And me and Chad, we paid dearly. I still look back, I cannot believe.
- [16:37]
B
We, I can't believe we did it.
- [16:39]
A
As a five and a half point favorite. But even we get burned here, it's a long term winner. You just take this position on Pittsburgh and you really are banking on their defense to show up. That's, that's we're hanging our hat on just because we know without DK it's going to be, it's going to be hard to move the ball for the Steeles. You just saw that like Roger's not have his safety Val, that's a big deal in his career. You go through all of Rogers history, he always had a dominant number one. You could say well he makes them the dominant number one. Yes. No one's disagreeing with you. He made Jordy Nelson, Devonte Adams, you know James Jones, all these guys work. I just, you saw last week like three straight throws mbs not the position me and Chad want to be in but it's the exact scenario like I think he had a great quote Aaron Rodgers. He said how many times have I played back to back bad games which I, I looked through it in his old age he has had a couple back to back stinkers but this exact type of matchup like a playoff to make the playoff at home as a dog, you know Roger's only been in the spot one other time his career and he won. So I, I, I know it's tough because he's an aging guy and you know he, you're now taking away his number one receiver. But it's the Tomlin voodoo. It's the Tomlin voodoo at the end of the day. And it's a weird game too. I talked to Pittsburgh Steeler fans. They want to lose this because they want to get rid of Tomlin. I think they want Freeman, the guy from, what is it, Notre Dame.
- [17:58]
B
He's not leaving Notre Dame.
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A
I don't know. We don't. I don't want to get too hard into college coaches. I know how protective you are about your college coach, but. And if I'm the Raiders, Fernando Mendoza, I'm throwing the book at your head coach. I do not care what his price is. I'm getting the coach from the quarterback. But for this game, yeah, I just, you know, if we could get four and a half if people are listening live and you can get four and a half now because it is dynamic lines and the alliance are moving. Obviously we'd much rather be there. But I'm not scared of not only having the three and a half. I think that's perfectly fine. Number we gave it the stats. Whenever it's 3 or above underdog in this exact matchup, it's 71 success rate, cover rate, I should say, for the dog in the spot. So give me Tomlin, Give me the Steelers plus three and a half. Chad.
- [18:42]
B
All right, quick word from Hard Rock Bet because there's a couple more games I want to talk about. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock bet, Florida's sportsbook, and the official sportsbook partner of your favorite Florida teams like the Jags, Bucks, Heat and Magic. The NFL playoffs kick off in just a few days and it's the perfect time to build the same game parlay on Hard Rock Bet and cash in on all the action. Or if you're more into hardwood than the gridiron, you can put up shots on the NBA and college every night on Hard Rock Bet, you're home for hoops action all season long. And if you missed the start of the game, don't worry. Hard Rock Bet has live in game betting, so you're never too late to bet any football or hoops game all season. If you haven't tried your first bet on Hard Rock Bet, there's still time for you to get $150 in bonus bets. If you win, just place a $5 bet. And if it hits, you get not only your winnings, but an extra $150 in bonus bets. The Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook app is the only legal sportsbook in the beautiful state of Florida. Plus Arizona, Ohio, New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois, Colorado and Michigan. Coming soon to more states too. Plus, Hard Rock Bet offers new promos every single day. So whenever you're listening. Just open the app and check out what you've got. Any day of the week, download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit payable in bonus bets. Not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida. Offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states must be 21 or over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play, terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1833 playwise in Indiana, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-809 with it gambling problem call 1-800- gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee and Virginia. Washington at Philadelphia. Philadelphia is now four point favorite. What's interesting to me about this game is that when we thought Jalen Hurts might be starting and he is not, it is going to be Tanner McKee, the backup from Stanford. The game was about seven. Now it's four. Was four and a half when it was reposted with Tanner McKee. So it's moved down. The Eagles love Tanner McKee. He hasn't played, you know, any games since week 18 last year. You even intimated the other day on the show on Thursday that as a fan and someone who's paying close attention, you like Tanner McKee. So all of a sudden it feels like the Eagles are in play for us.
- [21:30]
A
Yeah, and it's unfortunate. Like we said, we it's tough for us to move any guys out because we have such good numbers. But I love the Eagles here for this matchup just because it's a lot of the guys I thought were going to sit aren't going to sit right. They're playing a lot of people because they have to because of injuries and, you know, key starters on the defense and on the offense. You know, Tanner, we talked a little bit about it. I think he would be One of the 32 starters in this league. I just think everything about him reminds me of Nick Foles. He's just this really tall, strong, deep ball thrower and he's really tough to take down the pocket. The flip side, with Washington, I thought it was gonna be Mariota. That's why I think the number kind of fluctuated where it was so low as it was, and now it's come out that he's not even gonna play. It's gonna be Josh Johnson here. So yeah, it's, it's a number that's going up. Like you can get the four right now at Hard Rock. Every other book is four and a half and a couple books have already moved the 5 5, so it's just another line on bed. And I like the Eagles here, like this matchup. And if this is, you know, a close game heading into the fourth, you know, I think that favors this Eagles team in many ways. I just think defensively when you have Vic calling these plays, he could turn up to another level. And like I said, Brainer Graham's playing like a lot of vets are still playing for this Eagles team, especially on the defensive side. They just don't have enough bodies to fill in. So, yeah, give me, give me Eagles team against a Washington team that's literally playing for nothing. They've had their bags packed for two months now. I mean, just total, total loss season. And I just have a hard time thinking you're going to get up for this game.
- [23:01]
B
Dallas Cowboys at the New York Giants. This number is three and a half in a lot of places, but it's down to three at Hard Rock. We know the, the Cowboys are going to be going all out. It's a chance to end the season completely mediocre. But Dak has been playing great. Pickens is playing for a new contract. They've got no reason to sit people. Their defense is bad no matter who they play. The Giants, there's real repercussions if they win this game because they can drop from second overall pick to as low as seventh depending on what else happens in the league today. If you're the Giants, there's zero incentive to put a team on the field today. And the Cowboys have all the incentive in the world to want to end the season strong and feel like they have something to build on for next year. We talked about the Cowboys on Thursday. We talked about liking the Cowboys. We can't see why the money is coming in on the Giants. We both feel like we're missing something in the 72 hours since we did the show on Thursday. What are we missing? Because the money is still coming in on the Giants.
- [24:07]
A
Yeah. I'm so glad you didn't put this in the contest, though, just because it's just, this is Seattle 49ers all over again. The pros I talked to, they're all in the opposite side of me. I don't know what side you were on for this one, but I like the Cowboys. Well, yeah, I think we're definitely missing something because it's been like you just said, it's been bet down all the way to three book now. Like every book now is popping Three this morning. So really respect the money. It's coming to the Giants because right now it's all the money, all the tickets around the Cowboys and it's just a matchup. I don't get. Because the Cowboys have just owned the Giants in this division. I mean, just going through even their last five, six games. I think the last game they played this season was in September and it was that crazy rust game. I don't know if you remember it. Russ put up 37 points and the Cowboys won 40 to 37.
- [24:51]
B
That's right.
- [24:52]
A
On like a 70 yard field goal by Aubrey last year, Cowboys beat him 27, 20, 20 to 15. Two years ago they beat him 49 to 17 and 40 to nothing. So they just tend to dominate and beat, beat up the Giants team. And I don't know, like you said, it's. I, I'm completely blind spot to this game. I just don't know what people are seeing when I look at the secondary of the Giants. It's like this should be a field day for, for Dak. Like he should just be passing against air. Offensively, like I said, they struggle against running quarterbacks. Maybe that's what they're hanging their head on. Dart, keeping him in this game. He's been playing well since he's come back from the injury. Yeah, I just totally missing here. So I'm with Chad. I'm gonna, I'm gonna be with the public. I'm gonna take the three on the Cowboys now because I think that's such a key number, but my God, is it? This is crazy. It's been bent down this much. Just.
- [25:44]
B
Yeah.
- [25:44]
A
I don't know. Like you said, what they're expecting professional wise of this Giants team, but maybe they really do think Dak will, will falter and Jackson Dart will keep this one close.
- [25:53]
B
All right, so right now, our official five. New Orleans plus three and a half, Cincinnati minus seven and a half. Detroit plus three and a half, Rams minus seven and a half and Steelers plus three and a half. If we decide to make a change, we get. We're going to have to. We're going to lose the Rams number. So we're really going to have to put two games in because we're not going to take the Rams at 13 and a half. So if we want to get rid of the Saints, if we want to get rid of the Lions, we really got to figure out. All right, there's multiple games we're gonna have to change out. Do you know what I mean?
- [26:33]
A
Yeah.
- [26:36]
B
And would it be for the Eagles and the Cowboys.
- [26:38]
A
Do you know, like, that's the thing. I'm not, not too crazy about them either.
- [26:42]
B
I'm not loving changing out what we have.
- [26:44]
A
Yeah.
- [26:45]
B
Or the options that are currently available.
- [26:47]
A
I mean, I'll let it ride. We have what, one good line on the Rams. The rest are kind of what they are.
- [26:51]
B
So I don't mind the Bengals line and, and like I don't mind the Steelers line at all. To me, the biggest fears are the Saints and the Lions, which is fair.
- [27:01]
A
Yeah. I would say the only one that worries me is honestly the the Saints. But no, I like our five.
- [27:06]
B
All right, final five once again. Saints plus three and a half Cincinnati Bengals minus seven and a half Detroit Lions plus three and a half Rams minus seven and a half it's now a 13 dynamic lines. We put these picks in earlier in the week just to lock some things in and we got the Steelers tonight in the game to decide it all for the AFC north plus three and a half. This has been Sharper Square part of the Volume podcast network. We will be back on Sharper Square tonight after the late afternoon games to recap all the misery and glory of the day that will be live watch or listen on YouTube at sharp or square. Like the video, subscribe to the channel. Also download from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Subscribe, Rate Review Leave us five stars. Feedback is a gift until tonight. Love you.
- [28:06]
A
This ain't Ray Nitschke and Dick Butkus and Deacon Jones over there. So let's start kicking some ass. This team is not better than us. They're not even good. This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.