Sharp or Square – NFL Week 1 Last-Minute Bets (September 7, 2025)

Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Network: iHeartPodcasts & The Volume
Theme: Finalizing contest picks and sharp betting decisions for NFL Week 1, navigating last-minute line moves, injury updates, and contest strategy.

Episode Overview

This episode brings listeners “into the room where it happens” as Chad Millman and Simon Hunter hold their traditional Sunday-morning scramble to lock in final NFL Week 1 contest picks. Rather than deep-dive analysis on every matchup, Chad and Simon focus on quick-hit insights, sharp vs. square angles, and adapting to line moves, with a special emphasis on value in contest settings. It’s insider access to the psychology, nerves, and logic guiding serious NFL bettors just before kickoff.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Real-Time Decision-Making and Contest Strategy

• New Show Format:

  • This season’s Sunday-morning mini-episodes capture the “unfiltered, eavesdropping” vibe of their private decision-making.
  • “...we’re calling this like the stripped down in-the-room-eavesdropping version of Sharp or Square...on Sunday mornings going forward, we're gonna let people into the room where it happens so they can get in real time what we're planning on doing.” – Chad (03:33)

• Overthinking on Gameday:

  • Both admit to last-minute jitters and second-guessing as lines move.
  • “The Sunday morning panic is real. And I looked at my lineup this morning when I woke up, and it's like, how do you not overthink everything you do?” – Simon (03:54)

• Locked Lines and Value:

  • Focused on maximizing value in contests with fixed lines, frequently passing if key numbers are missed.
  • “We're sticklers. We might annoy you. We're talking about how me and Chad always want the best of the number.”* – Simon (06:38)

Game-by-Game Final Picks Debate

1. Tennessee at Denver

• Line Movements:
  • Hard Rock Bet: 8 | Contest Line: 7.5
• Stance:
  • Simon likes Tennessee, but insists on discipline with key numbers.
  • “If this number lands on eight and we lose this contest, I would lose my mind about that...We are sticklers about it because we've been burned...” – Simon (06:14)
• Decision:
  • Not a top contest pick due to line shift.

2. Chargers (Already locked in, Contest Line: 3.5)

• Autoplay, no debate.
• “I literally said on the show, autoplay three and a half, Chargers contest line.” – Simon (07:51)

3. Cincinnati at Cleveland

• Line: Hard Rock Bet: +5.5 | Contest: +5.5
• Stance:
  • Big confidence, locked-in early.
  • “Book it, locked in...Cleveland plus five and a half.” – Simon (08:14)

4. Baltimore at Buffalo

• Current Market: Ravens shifted from dog to small favorite.
• Contest Line: +1.5 (even though real line flipped)
• Simon:
  • Loves Ravens up to -2, would take them live.
  • Considers Bill's secondary a key weak spot, sides with Lamar Jackson in regular season.
  • “Would I have loved to have him as a dog? Yes...But the line has flipped, I'm telling you, I'd still bet up to minus two...” – (08:54)

5. Detroit at Green Bay

• Current: +1.5, lost value from earlier +2.5
• Decision:
  • Both pass due to lost value and market sentiment.
  • “I was sort of holding out, hoping it would get to 3...trying to be super thoughtful this year and not just autoplay a bet...” – Chad (09:36)

6. Pittsburgh at NY Jets

• Line: Steadily drifting downward; now +2.5 for Jets
• Analysis:
  • Pros on Jets, public on Steelers.
  • “It's definitely a pros versus where the pros are lining up on the Jets team and the public...on this Pittsburgh side.” – Simon (11:59)
• Decision:
  • Pass, number too short.

7. Raiders at Patriots

• Line: +2.5 for Raiders, was +3 earlier
• Analysis:
  • Simon tempted by injuries to Patriots (Gonzalez out), likes Raiders long-term, but feels overexposed.
  • “I love the Raiders. Just other games I love more...I’m so heavily invested in this game...If you want to be the breaker...I’m not going to stop you.” – Simon (13:01)
• Decision:
  • Not a primary pick.

8. San Francisco at Seattle

• Line: Seattle +2.5 (contest), only +1 at books
• Simon’s Take:
  • Enthusiastic about Seattle’s defensive scheme, value with injury unknowns (esp. McCaffrey).
  • “I love the Seahawks defense. I think they're going to match up really well with this 49ers team...A lot of questions to me about this 49ers defense...So yeah, you nailed it. It's really about the number plus two and a half. We love it.” – Simon (14:52)
• Outcome:
  • Ultimately passed over due to higher line value elsewhere.

9. Jacksonville vs Carolina

• Line: Jaguars (Contest: -2.5, Market: -4.5)
• Analysis:
  • Simon and Chad wrestle with uncertainty about both teams, but the line value is huge.
  • “We both agreed, much better offense, much better defense than the Panthers...At two and a half, we're getting two points of value in week one. That's a lot.” – Simon (18:44)
• Decision:
  • Locks in, citing need for a sharp favorite and contest value.

10. Miami at Indianapolis

• Line: +1.5 for Miami
• Chad’s Take:
  • Fully on board, especially with Tua and offense healthy, facing suspect Colts defense.
  • “I love it. I want it...Yes, please.” – Chad (21:47)
• Simon’s View:
  • Initially skeptical but agrees on sharp angle in contest.
• Outcome:
  • Miami makes the final cut.

Finalized Contest Picks

Confirmed by Chad at 23:13–24:09

The Five-Game Slate

| Pick Team | Contest Line | Reason/Notes | |-----------|--------------|--------------| | Chargers | -3.5 | Locked in early, no debate | | Cleveland | +5.5 | Favorite dog of the week, strong value | | Baltimore | +1.5 | Like up to -2, trust Ravens (esp. Lamar) vs. weak Bills secondary | | Miami | +1.5 | Healthy explosive offense vs. shaky Colts defense | | Jacksonville | -2.5 | Huge line value; market up to -4.5, sharp contest play |

• Seattle, Tennessee, Jets, Raiders, and Detroit left off due to line movement or lack of confidence/value.
• “No Tennessee because of the plus seven and a half. And no Jets and Raiders because it's plus two and a half, not three.” – Chad (23:13)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Sunday Jitters:

  • “The Sunday morning panic is real...How do you not overthink everything you do?” – Simon (03:54)

• Discipline & Value:

  • “We're sticklers. We might annoy you. We're talking about how me and Chad always want the best of the number.” – Simon (06:38)

• Contest Transparency:

  • “If you want our contest plays, this is where you're going to have to find it.” – Simon (07:51)

• On Skipping Detroit at a Poor Number:

  • “I'm trying to be super thoughtful this year and not just autoplay a bet because my spidey senses are saying this is the right side...” – Chad (09:36)

• Debating Miami:

  • “I love it. I want it. I’m so glad you're listing it. I actually had it on the list and then I just didn't want to bring it up again because I felt like you were going to laugh at me, so. Yes, please.” – Chad (21:47)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 02:17 – Episode Intro: Format and purpose explained
• 03:54 – Sunday contest decision process & panic
• 06:02 – Tennessee at Denver: Line discipline discussion
• 07:29–07:51 – Chargers pick locked; transparency pledge
• 08:14 – Cleveland at Cleveland: “Book it, locked in”
• 08:54 – Baltimore at Buffalo: Rationale for trusting Ravens, line movement
• 10:29–10:58 – Detroit at Green Bay: Value lost, pass
• 11:59–12:40 – Jets and Raiders: Pros vs. public, line drift
• 14:10–16:22 – San Francisco at Seattle: Value snapshot on Seahawks
• 18:44–22:50 – Jaguars and Dolphins discussion: 'Too much value to ignore,' Miami finally gets in
• 23:11–24:09 – Final contest picks recap

Tone & Vibe

True to form, Chad and Simon keep it light, self-aware, and slightly neurotic, balancing high-level betting insight with the relatable angst of anyone sweating last-minute contest picks. Both are open about second-guessing and emphasizing discipline over gut feel when line value evaporates.

For Listeners: How to Apply These Insights

• Always chase value, not hunches: Wait for key numbers, and don’t force a side on a bad line.
• Track line moves for contest edge: Locked contest lines can create rare value; pounce when they diverge from market.
• Balance sharp/dog plays with quality favorites: Too many public dogs/favorites can backfire—discipline matters.
• Monitor late injury news: Big contest decisions can hinge on player status—stay nimble on Sunday mornings.

Episode Highlights

• The nerves and chaos of real-time, last-minute NFL betting.
• The difference between sharp (wiseguy) and square (public) plays.
• The critical importance of line value in contest settings.
• Transparent, practical application of betting principles—no picks after-the-fact.

Next Up: Sharp or Square returns tonight for a live recap, with full accountability—win or lose.

“We will be back...tonight live at 7:30 to recap all the misery and glory of the day.” – Chad (24:34)