Sharp or Square – March Madness Betting Preview: NCAA Basketball Picks & Predictions

Date: March 17, 2026
Host: Chad Millman
Co-Host: Simon Hunter
Guest: Josh "Duck" Nunn (Big Bets on Campus Podcast)

Episode Overview

This special episode of Sharp or Square focuses on the upcoming NCAA Basketball Tournament, offering a deep betting preview. Chad Millman and professional bettor Simon Hunter are joined by returning guest Josh “Duck” Nunn, college sports betting expert, to break down the March Madness bracket, discuss betting strategies, uncover possible upsets, and share their favorite plays for the first round. The conversation is loaded with actionable insights both for bracket players and sports bettors, including specific game and team analysis, myth-busting around upset seeds, standout player highlights, and value spots in the futures market.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Excitement of March Madness (02:52–06:14)

• The hosts set the stage for one of the most magical weeks in sports, with 32 first-round games between Thursday and Friday.
• Announcement of a free bracket contest with the Volume Podcast Network and Hard Rock Bet as sponsors, featuring notable prizes.

Betting Mindset: Always Look Forward (06:14–07:04)

• Duck discusses a pro bettor's mindset: focus on the next opportunity, not previous wins.
  • “This industry can be really brutal at times. It doesn't matter what you've done before. It's all about the next bet.” – Duck (06:40)

Debunking March Madness Upset Myths (09:07–11:05)

Chad asks Duck about where upsets are most likely, and how NIL/transfer portal changes have altered the landscape.

• Duck's analysis:
  • Gap between 1–4 and 13–16 seeds is wider than ever.
  • Most 12–16 seeds drew tough matchups this year – don't overvalue trendy upset lines.
  • “I love the upsets as much as anybody... I don't see a lot this year with any of the 12 through 16 seeds.” – Duck (10:52)
  • Best value in the 11 seed line: look at teams like VCU and South Florida.

South Florida: Sentimental and Strategic Value (11:05–12:22)

• Chad highlights South Florida’s head coach story—a personal, emotional angle for those eyeing upsets.
• Duck agrees South Florida's spot is promising, citing schematic and emotional factors.

First Four/Play-in Game Best Bets (13:12–14:48)

Duck’s Best Bet:

• SMU -6.5 over Miami (OH)

  • “I just think SMU's top-end talent is really superior... I think that they could get destroyed at the rim. So I'm laying it with SMU.” – Duck (14:29)

• Despite liking Miami Ohio’s season, Duck says they’re outmatched physically and athletically by SMU.

On Duke, Futures, and Breakout Players (15:28–19:39)

• Simon reflects on the perception of Duke post-Coach K, and Boozer’s potential for a March breakout.
• Duck's overview of the current top seeds/futures market:
  • Gap at the top is significant, but value on favorites is marginal with lines compressed.
  • “Duke is really buttoned up and they're going to be tough to beat.” – Duck (18:56)
  • Breakout stars to watch: Dominic Davis (Cal Baptist), Acuff (Arkansas).

NIL Era and Blue Bloods (20:03–21:30)

• Discussion on how Coach Calipari and Kelvin Sampson navigate NIL and recruiting.
  • “They've been using some of the NIL techniques long before NIL was even a thing.” – Duck (21:19)

Thursday Best Bets & Game Analysis (21:47–26:23)

Duck's Top Thursday Bets:

1. Wisconsin Team Total Over 87.5

   • “Wisconsin has played a little faster... They just made 15 threes against Michigan. I think that Wisconsin puts up a huge point total here.” – Duck (22:44)

2. Duke–Siena Under 136.5

   • Siena lacks depth and shooting; Duke will control pace and likely empty the bench with a big lead.
   • “I like the under at 136.5. I've got this one about 78 to 52 type of game.” – Duck (23:06)
   • Duck also recommends Siena team total under.

3. Idaho–Houston Under 136.5

   • Duck expects a slow, defensive struggle: “I think Idaho could struggle to break 50 points.” – Duck (24:44)

Floor for plays:

• Duke–Siena under: Playable down to 134
• Idaho–Houston under: Good if line remains over 135

Cautions and Upset Alerts for Thursday (26:23–27:20)

• Duck warns: Don’t get too “upset heavy” on 12–16 seeds this year.
• Values on the 11-seed line ("VCU, South Florida could win on the court").

Friday Best Bets & Picks (32:51–37:19)

Duck's Top Friday Bets:

1. LIU–Arizona Under 152

   • Both teams lack three-point volume; expect slow, methodical pace.

2. Wright State Team Total Under 63.5 (vs. Virginia)

   • Wright State struggles to shoot; Virginia’s interior defense is dominant.

3. Cal Baptist–Kansas Under 138

   • Travel factors & defense; Duck suggests Cal Baptist could hang close and keep it low scoring.

Upset Watch & Long Shots (35:08–37:19)

• Cal Baptist highlighted as a potential sleeper due to star Dominic Davis and Kansas’ variability.

Final Four and Futures Advice (37:19–39:13)

• Duck leans to a “chalkier” Final Four, seeing little value deep in the bracket for lower seeds.
  • Suggests a Final Four seeds sum under 9.5 as an “exotic” prop if available.
  • WCC wins (Gonzaga, St. Mary’s, Santa Clara) over 3.5 is another favorite exotic.

Simon Says & Brass Balls Bets (39:13–41:13)

• Simon Says: Wisconsin -9.5 to -10.5

  • “They could easily win this game by 20.” – Simon (39:41)

• Brass Balls Bet of the Week:

  • TCU +120 (vs. Ohio State)
  • Duck endorsement: “TCU is a strong team and a team that I have also picked to advance out of the first round.” – Duck (41:09)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Chad Millman (on the volume of tournament games):
  “There are 32 games between Thursday lunchtime and Friday at midnight. Today we’re going to deliver coverage across the entire stretch...” (03:08)
• Josh Nunn (Duck) (on betting and life in the market):
  “It doesn't matter what you've done before. It's all about the next bet and the next series of events that are happening.” (06:40)
• Simon Hunter (on Duke’s reputation):
  “Duke has its haters and it should. Right? It’s almost coming up on 50 years of just people hating that brand.” (16:18)
• Josh Nunn (Duck) (on underdog chances):
  “The Cinderella runs are what make this event magical. I don't see a lot this year with any of the 12 through 16 seeds.” (10:52)

Timestamps for Important Segments

| Timestamp | Segment | |------------|------------------------------------------------------| | 02:52 | Start of content, show premise, intro of guest | | 09:07 | Upstart seed myths and upset market analysis | | 13:12 | Play-in/First Four best bets | | 15:28 | Futures market and top teams discussion | | 21:47 | Thursday best bets (game breakdowns begin) | | 26:23 | Upset alerts & bracket warnings | | 32:51 | Friday best bets | | 37:19 | Final Four/futures advice | | 39:13 | Simon’s “Simon Says” and Brass Balls Bet | | 41:13 | Episode wrap-up and contest reminder |

Quick Reference: Duck's Top Plays

• SMU -6.5 (First Four vs. Miami OH)
• Wisconsin Team Total Over 87.5 (vs. High Point)
• Duke–Siena Under 136.5 & Siena TT Under
• Idaho–Houston Under 136.5
• LIU–Arizona Under 152
• Wright State TT Under 63.5 (vs. Virginia)
• Cal Baptist–Kansas Under 138
• TCU +120 (Moneyline vs. Ohio State)

Final Thoughts

This episode is packed with advanced college basketball analysis, context on how the new transfer/NIL era impacts tournament upsets, and specific, actionable betting recommendations. Duck’s betting precision, Simon’s “square to sharp” perspective, and Chad’s storytelling make it a must-listen (or must-read) for anyone entering a bracket pool or placing March Madness bets.

For More:

• Participate in the Volume’s free bracket challenge: bracket.thevolume.com
• Follow Sharp or Square for NFL offseason picks and more multi-sport betting content.