Sharp or Square – NBA Betting Update with Jason Timpf
Host: Chad Millman
Co-Host: Simon Hunter
Guest: Jason Timpf (Hoops Tonight/Volume Podcast Network)
Date: February 17, 2026
Overview
In this episode, Chad Millman and Simon Hunter are joined by NBA analyst Jason Timpf of Hoops Tonight for a deep dive into the second half of the NBA season from a betting perspective. They break down which teams and players offer value in the futures market, analyze key storylines emerging from All-Star Weekend, and debate sharp (wiseguy) angles versus square (public) narratives.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. NBA All-Star Weekend: LA’s Scene and The Intuit Dome
- Chad shares star-studded All-Star anecdotes: Kenny Smith’s dinner at Jimmy Goldstein’s famous LA house (with Chris Rock, Sacha Baron Cohen, Dr. J); lunch with screenwriter Alan Loeb and Michael Lasker, where Demi Moore dropped by (04:57).
- The Intuit Dome’s high-tech facial recognition entry and in-arena experience were underwhelming for Chad—tech glitches soured the seamless promise, while the “Swell” fan wall stood out as a game-changer for home-court energy (08:34).
- Both praise more engaged, club-style fan sections at NBA events like the Vegas Cup, suggesting adopting such practices league-wide (11:36).
2. Eastern Conference Futures Breakdown
Detroit Pistons: Most Impressive Regular Season
- Jason makes a strong case for Detroit as the NBA’s most dominant regular season team by margin victories, win percentage against top teams, and relentless physical play (14:17).
- Quote: “They’ve been by any measure the most impressive team in the NBA in this regular season ... Detroit by any measure has had the most impressive regular season.” — Jason Timpf (14:17)
- Key stats: Pistons are 10–3 vs. top-10 teams, +6 point differential, consistently excel at second-chance and transition points.
- Skepticism lingers about Pistons’ halfcourt offense translating to playoff success against veteran Eastern teams (16:19).
- Quote: “The big thing that's kind of like a red flag for them is their half court offense. … they typically end up running into a veteran team that's able to control the margins enough that it turns into a half court game.” — Jason Timpf (16:19)
Cleveland Cavaliers: Harden’s Impact & Playoff Outlook
- Jason believes Cleveland is the best bet to win the East, primarily due to:
- Harden’s playoff upside as a healthier, still-productive #2 to Donovan Mitchell
- Key defensive upgrades with Keon Ellis and Dennis Schroeder, built to defend the East’s guard-driven offenses
- Strong overall roster balance in shot-creation and inside-out play (17:31)
- Quote: “If I really look at all the teams in the East, I think [Cleveland are] the most complete team. ... I would pick them by a small margin over the rest of those teams.” — Jason Timpf (21:41)
Boston Celtics: Sharp Sleeper or Overhyped?
- Simon notes professional bettors love Boston’s 14–1 odds, citing their experience and leadership (25:37).
- Jason is impressed by Boston’s system and resilience despite injuries but sees them slightly behind other contender cores, especially in perimeter defense and shot creation (26:27).
- Quote: “Boston’s success is very much a product of their system ... they are a team that I think is outkicking their coverage in terms of talent right now.” — Jason Timpf (27:31)
3. NBA Gossip & Unique Storylines
The Kevin Durant “Burner Account” Saga
- Simon and Jason discuss social media accusations linking KD to harsh comments about teammates (Shengun, Irving, Booker, etc.) through burner accounts (21:41).
- Quote: “It’s really bad, too. ... this burner is clearly, like, not—he’s openly pretending to be KD at the very least. … The evidence is compelling.” — Jason Timpf (22:34)
- Chad recalls KD aggressively defending himself with journalists/fans online, making the rumor plausible (23:59).
- Jason’s verdict: “I would say it's more likely than not that it was KD.” (24:50)
Will Hardy and the Tanking Utah Jazz
- Chad ponders if Will Hardy (ex-Celtics assistant/now Jazz HC) regrets the timing of his career leap given Boston’s perennial contention.
- Jason says Hardy is “set up really well” to coach a resurgent Jazz team, touts Keonte George’s leap and the Jazz’s promising young core, comparing Utah’s trajectory to OKC/San Antonio-level rebuilding (34:32).
4. Western Conference Betting Analysis
Minnesota Timberwolves: The Eagles of the NBA?
- Jason likes Minnesota as a value futures bet (~30 to 1), comparing their regular-season “effort issues” to the 2022 Eagles but predicting postseason dominance due to physicality and defensive versatility (37:37).
- Quote: “Minnesota to me is like the Philadelphia Eagles of the NBA ... when they ratchet things up ... they physically overwhelm you on defense and ... have a really high ceiling on both ends of the floor.” — Jason Timpf (37:37)
- Strong matchup vs. OKC, improved finishing and efficiency from Anthony Edwards, McDaniels’ shooting leap, Io Dosumnu’s instant offense off the bench.
Los Angeles Lakers: What’s the Path to Contention?
- Chad asks Jason how the Lakers can return to the title hunt with LeBron’s decline and Davis gone; Jason is pessimistic.
- Lakers lack both athleticism and shooting, their draft and free agent moves have mostly failed, and Polinka’s margin errors keep compounding (45:02).
- Quote: “This roster needs to be completely rebuilt from the ground up … There have just been so many misses on the margins over the last few years.” — Jason Timpf (45:02)
Dallas Mavericks and the Anthony Davis/Luka Trade Fallout
- Both hosts reflect that neither LA nor Dallas fully capitalized on the Davis/Luka deal, as LA is rebuilding around Luka, and Dallas lucked into Cooper Flagg in the draft (48:43).
5. MVP Race and Value Picks
- Jason favors a long-shot MVP bet on Cade Cunningham at +1400, reasoning that if Detroit continues its dominance while Cade’s numbers improve post-All-Star, he could edge out favorites like SGA and Jokic (if injuries persist) (50:57):
- Quote: “What if Detroit finishes three or four games ahead of OKC in the standings? ... If for the next 30 games he averages 29 on 61 true shooting and the Pistons finish three games ahead of OKC, I think he's the MVP and at that point, plus 1400 for an outcome that I think is relatively achievable.” — Jason Timpf (50:57)
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- On All-Star Madness: “He doesn’t even walk. He just sort of glides everywhere. The guy is so fucking cool. ... Swag doesn’t age, Chad.” – Chad Millman (04:58), 05:36), Simon Hunter
- On NBA Fan Experience: “If they could figure out a way to replicate any of that, it would be truly amazing ... It’s great in an arena like that.” — Chad Millman (11:36)
- On KD's Online Obsession: “KD is in his DMs ... it’s clearly a thing for him. So it would not surprise me at all if any of this was true.” — Chad Millman (23:59)
- On Boston's Overachieving: “Joe Missoula’s system ... has come with lumps for Boston. ... There's a huge difference between [taking] Good threes and bad threes.” — Jason Timpf (26:27)
Timestamps for Key Segments
- [02:13] – Show proper begins; All-Star Weekend in LA stories
- [08:34] – Arena tech at All-Star; experience at the Intuit Dome
- [14:17] – Pistons’ dominance & value in futures market
- [17:31] – Cleveland’s Harden upgrade and playoff thesis
- [21:41] – KD burner account drama, social media in the NBA
- [25:37] – Celtics value discussion, system vs. talent
- [34:32] – Will Hardy, Jazz trajectory, coaching career arcs
- [37:37] – Timberwolves as a sharp long shot in the West
- [45:02] – Lakers’ roster construction: Rebuild challenges
- [50:57] – Jason’s Cade Cunningham MVP value pitch
Tone & Style
True to the Sharp or Square brand, the tone is smart, irreverent, and analytic—Chad and Simon combine insider anecdotes with sharp betting takes. Jason Timpf delivers data-driven NBA breakdowns and vivid insights into team culture, balancing analysis with conversational wit.
Takeaways for Bettors
- Look past public narratives: Pistons and Timberwolves are undervalued in betting markets due to unsexy styles or snoozy regular seasons.
- Holy trinity for a modern NBA roster: Athleticism, jump shooting, and shot-creation depth matter more than ever in the playoff race.
- Injuries and Stars: The East will likely come down to injuries and which team’s #2 steps up (think Harden vs. Garland).
- Anecdotes & Atmosphere: All-Star and in-arena experience still drives NBA fandom and, in subtle ways, betting edges (home-court, etc.).
- MVP value: Cade Cunningham is a live long shot if Detroit finishes strong and SGA’s injury lingers.
Recommended Listening/Viewing
- Subscribe and watch "Sharp or Square" on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, etc.
- Check out Jason Timpf on “Hoops Tonight” for more NBA-centric content.
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