NFC SOUTH BETTING PREVIEW: Falcons, Saints, Texans & Panthers Predictions

Summary

Sharp or Square – NFC South Betting Preview

Podcast: Sharp or Square
Host(s): Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Date: July 30, 2026
Episode Theme: In-depth betting preview for the NFC South, evaluating each team’s win totals, division odds, and key offseason moves to help bettors identify value and pitfalls ahead of the NFL season.

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Episode Overview

Chad Millman and professional bettor Simon Hunter launch their annual NFL division-by-division betting preview series, starting with the NFC South. Once seen as the league’s least compelling group, Chad and Simon now view it as the most intriguing—where the razor-thin margins between teams open unusual opportunities and risks for bettors. The conversation digs deep into roster moves, coaching changes, quarterback questions, and which narratives are smoke versus signal for the sharpest possible betting approach.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Setting the Stage: Why the NFC South?

• Parity & Uncertainty:
  Chad opens by highlighting how the division is uniquely even in preseason odds—no team is a clear favorite, and each carries a compelling "what if?” scenario.
  • “It started as our least favorite division... I think it’s turned into our favorite.” (06:26, Chad)

2. Carolina Panthers Analysis

• Current Odds:
  • Win Total: 7.5 (juiced to Under, -135)
  • Division Winner: +350
  • Conference: 40/1
  • Super Bowl: 75/1
• Offseason Moves:
  • Signed edge rusher Jalen Phillips—high upside, but injury concerns remain.
  • Added LB Devin Lloyd and invested in offensive playmakers, notably Chuba Hubbard as lead back.
• Bryce Young’s Second Year:
  • Noted as remarkably likable and mature in camp, raising optimism (“He was so freaking charming... The guy is freaking ready.” — 09:05, Chad).
• Betting Value?
  • “I have to fade them this year... too much luck last season, too much inconsistency.” (10:58, Simon)
  • Simon cautions that last year’s playoff push was more about the Bucs’ collapse than Carolina’s readiness. The current line has lost its early value.
  • “If the Panthers get eight wins again, wouldn’t be that shocked... but to bet on that, just feels there’s no value with the way their schedule is broken.” (11:29, Simon)
• Defensive Upgrades, but Still Concerns:
  • Jalen Phillips’ injury risks and a thin pass rush remain a hurdle for sustained improvement.

Notable Quote:

“They won that division because the Bucs lost it.” (12:55, Chad)

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3. Atlanta Falcons Outlook

• Current Odds:
  • Win Total: 7.5 (under -135, over + money)
  • Division: +350
  • Conference: 40/1
  • Super Bowl: 75/1
• Big Changes:
  • Kevin Stefanski hired as head coach.
  • Tua Tagovailoa signed as starting QB (Michael Penix out recovering from ACL injury).
  • Upgrades at WR with Johan Dotson, Darnell Mooney out, RB Tyler Allgeier gone.
• Quarterback Doubts:
  • Simon delivers a longtime bias: “I would never ever waste time scouting a left-handed quarterback... the numbers just do not work out in this league.” (14:56, Simon)
  • His main concern for Tua: declining footwork and possible lingering mental/physical damage from past concussions.
  • “He’s not staying solid on his base, he’s on his toes, not stepping into throws... just isn’t trusting the pocket.” (17:23, Simon)
• Coaching Optimism vs. Roster Gaps:
  • Chad remains optimistic Stefanski could leverage a timing offense, and the roster has “tons of talent,” but Simon ultimately avoids betting Atlanta due to too many quarterback unknowns.
• Division is Up for Grabs:
  • Some professionals are still secretly bullish on Atlanta as a long shot because of Stefanski’s pedigree and weapons if Tua can regain form.

Notable Quotes:

“If Tua does get it right in this division with those weapons, this could easily be a 10-win, 9-win team.” (17:23, Simon)

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4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Breakdown

• Current Odds:
  • Win Total: 8.5
  • Division: +175 (favorite)
  • Conference: 22/1
  • Super Bowl: 50/1
• Core Storylines:
  • Todd Bowles returns as head coach, with Baker Mayfield also back.
  • Key draft addition: Reuben Bain (DL), Kenneth Gainwell added (RB), Bucky Irving returns from injury.
  • Biggest concern: Contract disputes with Vita Vea and Baker Mayfield could be distractions.
  • Offensive line rated top-5 by Simon—sets up Baker for success.
  • Deep, dynamic weapon group with Emeka Egbuka, Chris Godwin, Gainwell, Irving.
• Offensive Ceiling vs. Baker Volatility:
  • “If they’re going to get 10 wins, that usually wins this division.” (27:13, Simon)
  • Cautions about “Baker or bust”: can excel with protection and health, but history of durability and “gunslinger” turnovers is risky.
  • On Todd Bowles: “Feels like a dinosaur… punting on fourth downs... you need to trust this quarterback.” (28:20, Simon)
• Betting Take:
  • Simon sees little preseason value; expects in-season value opportunities and prefers betting win total or division based on health momentum.

Memorable Moment:

“Some games, he won us some money, but he also hurt our feelings.” (29:31, Chad)

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5. New Orleans Saints Focus

• Current Odds:
  • Win Total: 7.5 (over -120)
  • Division: +260
  • Conference: 40/1
  • Super Bowl: 75/1
• The Tyler Shuck Effect:
  • Tyler Shuck’s stunning run for Rookie of the Year (given out on podcast at 200/1, 31:24) has the betting community buzzing with optimism.
  • “He was fearless. He played like a guy who’s 26 years old.” (35:11, Chad)
• Roster Improvements:
  • Strong investments on the offensive line, keeping it top-tier.
  • Kamara retained and Travis Etienne added at RB—“a really good back, especially behind that O-line.” (32:29, Simon)
  • Kellen Moore returns for second year as OC, credited for maximizing Jalen Hurts and now Shuck.
• Last Place Schedule:
  • Saints’ 4th place 2025 finish grants them the “easiest schedule in the division.” (33:30, Simon)
• Defensive Strengths:
  • Last year’s defense kept them in games; now further improved.
  • “Defensively, this Saints team’s actually pretty good... they’ve added pieces.” (33:50, Simon)
• Pro Betting Community Love:
  • “Too much love. That’s my fear, Chad. Every pro I talk to, we all just absolutely love this Saints team.” (34:32, Simon)
  • “Biggest bet by far in this division is on the plus 270... to win this division.” (32:29, Simon)
  • Simon expects line movement to continue: “I do think by the time we get to kickoff, I think Hard Rock (special) drops below +250.” (34:24, Simon)

Notable Quotes & Moments:

“Shock will chuck and it don’t give a fuck. What do you think of that?” (35:29, Chad)
“Was that real what we saw, or was that just a streaky quarterback that none of these defensive coordinators had film on?” (36:20, Simon)
“Everything they’ve done in free agency, everything in the draft, it’s like, oh my God, they think they have a guy. They’re all in supporting this guy... I’ve got to put my money behind them.” (38:07, Simon)

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Betting Summary: Table of Division Odds & Takeaways

| Team | Win Total (juiced) | Division Winner Odds | Key Angle | Expert Consensus | |--------------|--------------------|---------------------|------------------------------|-------------------------| | Buccaneers | 8.5 | +175 | Top OL, weapons, Baker boom/bust | Value may emerge in-season | | Saints | 7.5 (-120 OVER) | +260 | Soft schedule, QB upside, strong OL/D | Simon’s favorite/preferred bet | | Falcons | 7.5 (-135 UNDER) | +350 | New coach, Tua uncertainty | Long-shot division sleeper | | Panthers | 7.5 (-135 UNDER) | +350 | Defensive upgrades, but thin value | Fading preseason hype |

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Memorable Quotes & Moments

• “If Tua does get it right in this division with those weapons, this could easily be a 10-win, 9-win team.” (17:23, Simon)
• “Shock will chuck and it don’t give a fuck.” (35:29, Chad)
• “[The Saints] have the easiest schedule than anyone else in this division. And I think they have almost all the same amount of talent as that Bucs team does.” (33:30, Simon)
• “They won that division because the Bucs lost it.” (12:55, Chad)
• “If Baker’s got a really good offensive line … why don’t I love this team? Like, why can’t I commit full force to this team?” (39:31, Chad)
• “If Shuck is a total bust… Great. Great draft class coming out this year, and they’re not invested that much in him in the first place. Really, really nice spot as a Saints organizationally.” (38:07, Simon)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• NFC South Overview/Betting Lines: 07:36
• Panthers Deep Dive: 08:12—13:21
• Falcons Analysis: 13:21—18:21
• Buccaneers Outlook: 25:47—30:57
• Saints Debate & Betting Case: 30:57—39:27
• Division Wrap & Final Thoughts: 39:27—41:54

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Final Takeaways & Division Bets

• Simon’s Strongest Bet: Saints to win the division at +260/270 before inevitable line movement.
• Panthers: No value at current line, lean Under but only in-season if the price improves.
• Falcons: Some pro sleeper intrigue but Tua’s trajectory is too unreliable for a preseason position.
• Bucs: Could be the best team/quarterback combo—worth monitoring for in-season value if Baker stays healthy. Chad remains “irrationally unable to fully commit,” yet sees all the upside.

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Concluding Tone & Chemistry

The episode is rich with friendly ribbing (“Shock will chuck and it don’t give a fuck!”), player betting “war stories,” and honest assessments of betting psychology. Chad and Simon bring out both each other’s sharp contrarian angles and real doubts, making for an engaging, informative ride through the NFL’s messiest and potentially most profitable division.

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For the Shrewd NFL Bettor:

• Keep an eye on Saints’ divisional odds before the public piles in.
• Watch for Bucs’ in-season over/value if Baker and the OL stay healthy.
• Fade emotional Panthers action and longshot Atlanta hype—be patient, and wait for lines to move after first injury or market overreaction.

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(Episode ends with playful banter and a reminder to subscribe for the next divisional breakdown.)

Transcript

[Chad Millman]

This is an I Heart Podcast.

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[Simon Hunter]

Tekodar and I'm back with a new

[Chad Millman]

season of my podcast Skyline Drive. This time I talk to scientists, biopunks, curmudgeons, blue zoners, super seniors, and Goa's

[Simon Hunter]

top cryotherapy lab to try to understand this obsession with living forever and what it means for all of us.

[Chad Millman]

And I get into a bit of

[Simon Hunter]

trouble along the way.

[Chad Millman]

I'd say probably start bone smashing.

[Botox Ad / Michael Rappaport / Various Ad Voices]

That doesn't work to make it look more defined.

[Chad Millman]

They say it works.

[Botox Ad / Michael Rappaport / Various Ad Voices]

I don't know.

[Chad Millman]

Listen to Skyline Drive how to Live Forever on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts,

[Simon Hunter]

or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Botox Ad / Michael Rappaport / Various Ad Voices]

This is Michael Rappaport and my podcast, the I Am Rappaport Stereo podcast is unlike any one you've ever heard. If you're looking for strong opinions about sports, entertainment, politics, pop culture and whatever else catches my attention, then subscribe now. This kid, Jafar Jackson, should absolutely, positively get nominated for his portrayal as Michael Jackson. Listen to I Am rapoport on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

[Chad Millman]

150 years ago, they were hunting us down to kill us.

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And now they're hunting down immigrants to deport them. This is First America, the true story of how the United States came to

[Simon Hunter]

be and how we got to this part.

[Botox Ad / Michael Rappaport / Various Ad Voices]

Present Moment Listen to First America on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Chad Millman]

Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rock Vet. We are part of the Volume Podcast network. This is the show that makes the square sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined, as always by my co host, my bff, my companion, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.

[Simon Hunter]

Chad. As we sit here right now, every team has officially reported the camp.

[Chad Millman]

My friend, I feel warm and fuzzy.

[Simon Hunter]

I'm in, like, a weird spot where I am warm and fuzzy, but I'm in a weird world right now where I'm all in on football, but I'm still watching my crappy TV shows before I head into the season. So I'm on season four of Homeland. Have you ever watched Homeland?

[Chad Millman]

Oh, dude, I'm jealous that you're getting to watch it. I. I always. I like. I feel so happy for people who like Breaking Bad, Sopranos, Homeland, the Wire. Like these shows that are so good, and if you've never watched them before getting a chance to watch it, it's amazing.

[Simon Hunter]

This is my 10th time through. I'm not gonna lie.

[Chad Millman]

Okay.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah. Every season of season, I do the same thing. I watch shows, but I stopped Homeland. I don't forget what happened basically once. I don't know if you remember, season one was so good. It just every season after for, like, a little bit of a letdown, but I am super paranoid. State was gonna get at, like, when I'm leaving my place now I'm like, is this guy tailing me? Whatever. Whatever happens for me, watching too much CIA stuff. And now I'm betting large amounts of money in sportsbooks again. I'm just always being like, is someone tracking me right now? Is this guy following me in the sports book? So it's for my mental health. I need to stop watching Homeland now that I'm back to handling large amounts of cash.

[Chad Millman]

I just watched on Saturday. My wife was out of town, my kid was doing his own thing, and I basically rewatched the entire season two of the Bear, which I love. And I think season two, episode six, it's an episode called Forks, features Richie, one of the main characters. Anyone who watches the Bear, it's such a Chicago show. It's got these little Chicago Easter eggs, which makes me love it even more. I find him.

[Simon Hunter]

His personalities work for Chicago. Is that really what you think a lot of Chicago people are, like, locally,

[Chad Millman]

like, I think local? Yeah, totally. Oh, yeah. Those personalities are are accurate for I think any like working class, close knit, like family, community. You know, obviously everything's heightened for television. But the Chicago of it all, like, it's not even the characters so much. They don't have crazy Chicago accents, but the communities they talk about, the areas that they shoot in, the way they make the city look. There's Easter eggs in the show through season one and season two. More in season one than season two. That it's one of those things if you know Chicago, you know, like there's a picture of Simeon Rice when he played at Illinois on the wall of the Beef, right? And like you'd only know that Simeon Rice matters to people in Chicago because he was a great Chicago high school football player who went to become a top five overall pick for the local Big Ten team at the time, Illinois. You discount Northwestern. Like you're only going to get that if you know Chicago history. So to me, those things are interesting. Love it.

[Simon Hunter]

Almost as good as your Sid Luckman statue.

[Chad Millman]

You know what we're going to do today? We're going to talk about one of our favorite divisions in football, where there's plenty of statues to go around. It's our annual eight part Division by Division NFL Betting preview. Starting with it started out as our least favorite division of football. I think it's turned into our favorite division of football. We're talking about the NFC South. Will the Falcons make a run with a new coach, Kevin Stefanski and Tua under center? Can the Bucks rebound with a healthier Baker Mayfield, even though Vita Vea wants out? Were the Saints a fluke with Tyler Shock at the end of last year? Did they put themselves in a position to not be able to draft from a legendary potential quarterback draft class because it'll be too good? Most importantly, Simon, are we still Carolina Panthers podcast? Those are the questions we have today. Are you ready?

[Simon Hunter]

Let's get to it.

[Chad Millman]

Betting markets show a very even division. One of the most even divisions top to bottom. Tampa Bay 8 1/2 win totals minus 135 under. New Orleans 7 1/2 wins, minus 120 over. Not surprising with the enthusiasm for the Saints. Atlanta 7 1/2, minus 135 under. Carolina 7 1/2, minus 135 Under. That number's gone up though, because didn't I like Carolina at six and a half when they first came out? Believe I did.

[Simon Hunter]

You did.

[Chad Millman]

Okay. All right, so let's talk about Carolina. Like they're always our favorite team to bet. We go all in on The Panthers, no matter what the year, no matter what the circumstances, we feel like we got a beat on this team. The Panthers up by four in the wild card versus the Rams. Under 40 seconds left before a beautiful pass from MVP Matthew Stafford ended the Carolina season. They are plus 350 to win their division. They are 40 to 1 to win the conference, 75 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. Did you see how charming Bryce Young was in his intro in his opening press conference the other day?

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, he's a great man. We, we all know that. That's how he got first overall pick, Chad. He charmed him in their meeting room.

[Chad Millman]

He was so freaking charming. He's like, any big news, any big milestones? One guy said he got married. One guy's like, I'm an empty nester. And Bryce Young was like, congratulations, is that good? The guy's back. The guy is freaking ready. Dave Canales, Bryce Young. They are champions.

[Simon Hunter]

It also just shows how crazy football can be, right? The fact that they were, like you said, four points, winning by four points over the Rams, like they just, we've seen it, right? When their offense is clicking, it is pretty impressive. They just, they were so inconsistent last year. We've never seen anything like it, right? Me and Chad would bet on them one week, we'd fade them the next. It worked like it was the most bizarre pattern. It worked every week. It worked. It was bizarre. So yeah, this, this Panthers team, you know, like Chad said, the number has moved, right? So that was a good read by you. It's up to seven and a half now, so the pros were on it. I'm just like, I, I'm going to keep holding my, my point of view of this is it's going to be a tough schedule. That first place schedule is really tough. And the Bucks, who, you know, three years straight they had won this division, they still, even after a whole collapse, they still must won the division at 8 and 9. So it wasn't like the Panthers are some type of juggernau. A team that limped in and we've seen it time and time again in playoff history. Those home dogs in the wild card round that no one believes in, they. They play tough. So it's like I'm trying not to overreact too much to that playoff game and what happened last year. The Panthers and I think me and you, I think we stay mentality where we see a ton of talent here, but it feels like they were two years early, honestly last year, like it just to win your Division 8 and 9 and all those things that break their way divisionally where the Bucs kind of fell apart, Atlanta fell apart and the Saints won a bunch of games for them against those teams in their division to help them win this division. The Panthers, it just felt like they were so lucky. I just have to fade them this year. So the fact that then the under now is minus 135 at the seven and a half, not a ton of value there, Chad. I mean I feel like we can be patient there if we want to bet that in season. I just, I wouldn't be betting a number that juiced up where I think we both have the same mentality where it's like the Panthers get eight wins again, wouldn't be that shocked. Like they have that type of talent. Not just offensively. They've added to the defense like they're going to be a pretty good team, but I think they're going to have eight or nine wins like that just to me to bet on that. Just feels there's no value there with the way their schedule is broken.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah. And they also their defense, they needed help on the edge last year. They could not get a pass rush going. So that what they did, they went out and signed Jalen Phillips who when he can play can really be outstanding. The challenge has been injuries for him. So are you going to be getting a guy who's on the upswing, who showed what he was, who became a huge, a big, big piece of trade bait in the middle of last year or you're going to get a guy who could fall back into injury prone situations and they spent a lot of money on the guy because there were, there were competitors for Jalen Phillips. So that's one big one. They might have improved at linebacker adding Devin Lloyd, but it's hard to say exactly. Like that's kind of where they spent their money in free agency on those two guys we love, Tenaro and McMillan. Great rookie of the year, lived up to it, had some amazing catches. Totally believe the hype. They got rid of Rico Dowdle because they felt like they had. They had opportunities with Chuba Hubbard now to be the running back. So like I like where the Panthers are offensively, but I do think they won that division because the Bucks lost it.

[Simon Hunter]

That's what I just the, the value wasn't there. Like last year they were left for dead. Even we had left them for dead for the most part. So that was the thing. It's just there was no believers where this year they have believers they really do. Like a lot of people are like, okay, this is a team that is slept on but obviously there is one team in this division that everyone's talking about. I think me and Chad are on the same page. So we should, we should keep it moving.

[Chad Millman]

I don't think this is the team. The Atlanta Falcons eight and nine humiliating three way division tie. Got rid of Raheem Morris. Got rid of GM Terry Fontenot. Combined 0 playoffs for either plus 350 to win the division. 40 to 1 to win the conference. 75 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. So now they're getting Kevin Stefanski. He's been a two time NFL coach of the year. We like Stefanski. Like what he has been able to do with the Browns over the years as they've continued to screw up. Their quarterback situation has been miraculous. Which is why one year he got coach of the year in addition to one of the years with Baker Mayfield. Now they got to, they got to basically backfill until Michael Penix could come back from. I think it's his third ACL tier tear in his career. A couple of them playing for the Indiana Hoosiers. Kirk Cousins is gone. They traded away their first round pick in 25 to get a pass rusher. They didn't really add much. They spent money on Johan Dotson at wide receiver to replace Darnell Mooney. They got rid of Algier. So I'll have a take here. I think Kevin Stefanski with TUA could be a really good combination if TUA can stay healthy.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah. What's better than having one left handed quarterback? Chad Having two. So I, I look at this team where it's like I've given my opinion on it. I would. If I am a scout in the NFL, I am old school. I would never ever waste time scouting a left handed quarterback. I just. We have the day and the numbers. They just do not work out in this league. Whatever it is, it's, it's different come out of their hands. Guys don't react to it. You say maybe it's just a talent level. Whatever your excuses, I just don't like left handed quarterbacks. And I immediately saw this team, I was like this is, this is so perfectly on brand for them. Having two left handed quarterbacks in Atlanta. And it's a team that I'm giving no love to, not even paying attention to would make total sense for them to win this division. That's usually how the south works. But they just feel like a team that people are going to get blinded by the fantasy football names, right? Bijan, Robinson, London. Tons of talent, right? You get. You get a quarterback like, you know, Caleb Williams or whoever in there, this would be a, you know, a team that we would all be talking about shoeing to win this division. Right. That's just so much talent offensively. You would think if they had the right piece in there, they'd be able to move it. So I don't think your assessment's wrong to think Tool could come in there and put it together.

[Botox Ad / Michael Rappaport / Various Ad Voices]

Right.

[Simon Hunter]

We've seen him do it before. My question is he's still mentally right. This is a guy that's taken insane hits to the head and we've seen those add up. He just doesn't look mentally sharp, let alone his interviews. Sure, he's an idiot when he talks. That's not a big deal to me. Right? It's. It's okay. Like, if you're football smart, I could care less how you're publicly perceived. I don't know if the football smarts are there anymore, Chad. That's my fear with him. It's just he's regressed in so many ways. Football and, you know, his footwork has regressed in my opinion. There's just a lot of stuff with him that I have major questions about. That's why he's there with. No. I mean, they paid him basically nothing. So, Tua, this is it. So I don't hate the play by Chad, where it's like, if you're viewing this as a new head coach, there's always me. There's one random team that can get a bump for the new head coach. The Fanski fits that mold. They're really smart offensive guy, tons of talent on this team. Can you get the most out of Tua? Can he get the most out of Penix? It's impossible to say. It's like two guys that just. They've disappointed me so much, Chad. I just don't want to be putting money behind them right now.

[Chad Millman]

What have you seen from Tua? You say footwork, and footwork is so important in the kind of offense he ran with Miami. And it's also going to be important in the offense he runs with Stefanski, which is largely a timing offense. What have you seen footwork wise, that troubles you?

[Simon Hunter]

He's got the jitters. He's. He's honestly, he's got whatever it is. He's not staying like solid on his base. He's on. Either on his toes too much or he's not stepping into his throws. He's just, I feel like he's just taking too many hits and he's, that's in the back of his mind just the way his footwork is now gotten worse where he's not trusting the pocket, he's not trusting himself. You say, well, he's in Atlanta now, maybe that will change. I don't know if it's that easy to fix a football. Guys, it's, it's really all mental in this league. Like guys do get the yips for taking so many hits. We've seen that time and time again. So I'm just worried that we've already seen the best of TUA and that that's my fear with it. But I do like what you've said though with the idea of like this is the exact time this Atlanta team should work out. Like we've all kind of left them for dead here. And I know some professionals have taken a position on just because if TUA does get it right in this division with those weapons, this could easily be a 10 win team, 9 win team. So I would say there's more support that people realize. This Atlanta team, it's not all love for another team. We're about to talk about, well, look,

[Chad Millman]

Atlanta minus seven and a half. It's minus 135 to the under. So it's plus money to get the over, which is an interesting opportunity also because their defense, they did, they were just so much better as a pass rush last year. Now how much of that was Raheem Morris and him being a defensive specialist and how much did the offense suffer because of that? So was there all of a sudden just a complete flip and where the emphasis is. And they're a much better offensive team but their defense suffers. We don't know that yet, but I'm a buyer on Stefanski. I, I just, I think the guy's been in terrible positions and what he did in Cleveland should not be discounted. That team could be competitive like they were. They were competitive last year. We bet on them with Dylan Gabriel because of that defense and because of Stefanski. So it's interesting to me, it's very interesting. Let's do a quick word from Hard Rock Bet. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock BET Sportsbook. Some folks call this the slow period until football season. But on Hard Rock bat, we call it baseball season. There's a full slate almost every day to bet on building epic same game parlays and even live betting every inning however you like to play ball. Hard Rock Bet has you covered. So if you're ready to step in into the batter's box, sign up with Hard Rock Bet today and place a $5 bet. If it wins, you bet $150 in bonus bets on top of your winnings. That's right, an extra $150 in your account. Plus hard rock bet gives you new promos every single day. We're talking no sweat bets, profit boost, bonus bets and more. Open Hard Rock Bet now and see what you've got today. And sure, Hard Rock Bet is Florida's only legal sports book, but you don't have to be in Florida to join the party. Hard Rock Bet is also live in Arizona, Ohio, New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois, Colorado and Michigan, with more states on the way. So download Hard Rock Bet and swing for the fences today. Payable and bonus bets Not a cash offer Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital, LLC and all other states might be 21 or over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1-833-Playwise in Indiana. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-809 with it in Arizona, Ohio and Virginia, call 1-800-my reset gambling problem. Call 1-800- gambler in Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey and Tennessee.

[Botox Ad / Michael Rappaport / Various Ad Voices]

Plans can be a maybe for people with chronic migraine 15 or more headache days a month, each lasting four hours or more. Botox Onobotulinum Toxin A prevents headaches in adults with chronic migraine. It's not for those with 14 or fewer headache days a month. It prevents, on average, eight to nine headache days a month versus six to seven for placebo. Prescription Botox is injected by your doctor. Botox effects may spread hours to weeks after injection, causing serious symptoms. Alert your doctor right away as Trouble swallowing, speaking, breathing, eye problems or muscle weakness can be signs of a life threatening condition. Those with these conditions before injection are at highest risk. Side effects may include allergic reactions like rash, breathing problems, dizziness, neck and injection site pain and headache. Don't receive Botox if there's a skin infection. Tell your doctor your medical history, muscle or nerve conditions like als, Myasthenia gravis or Lambert Eaton syndrome, and medicines like botulinum toxins which may increase the risk of serious side effects. Make a plan and ask your doctor about Botox. Visit botoxchronicmigraine.com or call 1-800-44-BOTOX.

[Chad Millman]

It's Chelsea Handler from Dear Chelsea. This season we've got some awesome guests

[Botox Ad / Michael Rappaport / Various Ad Voices]

ready to dole out advice.

[Chad Millman]

Guests like Tiffany Haddish kind of slide into people's DMs. I like Bumble. Also girl. Farmersonly.com Estate sales, funerals, auctions are usually good. There's a lot of good men there. Grocery stores near gyms. Darcy Carden and I remember being like,

[Botox Ad / Michael Rappaport / Various Ad Voices]

I know this is kind of good

[Chad Millman]

advice, but, like, I really don't want to do that. So you didn't take her advice? I didn't take her advice. Are you still friends with that woman?

[Simon Hunter]

No.

[Chad Millman]

She actually was kind of toxic. Neil DeGrasse Tyson.

[Simon Hunter]

I spent my whole life looking up.

[Chad Millman]

I was a geek kid.

[Simon Hunter]

I had a telescope at age 12.

[Chad Millman]

And so. So you didn't have sex for a long time. Sherry o', Terry, were you a soap opera person? Young and restless? Okay, well, first of all, you should know it's the Young and the Restless. I can't even believe you're mispronouncing. Some of us abbreviate it because we've been so

[Botox Ad / Michael Rappaport / Various Ad Voices]

ts.

[Chad Millman]

Madison, are you into poly? No.

[Simon Hunter]

No, I don't think so.

[Chad Millman]

Oh, I could have told you no on that girl. It's a poly just based on what she's wearing and the way her hair is styled. She is not into poly, girl. Try poly. Anna Faris, Dave Franco, Madeline Cline, Hannah Gadsby, Adam Scott, Wanda Sykes, and more. Listen to Dear Chelsea on the iHeartRadio

[Botox Ad / Michael Rappaport / Various Ad Voices]

app, Apple Podcasts, or.

[Chad Millman]

Or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Simon Hunter]

Talking about guns with others might not

[Chad Millman]

always feel comfortable, but it could save a life. Here's a way to start a conversation.

[Simon Hunter]

Your family is going over to your neighbor's home for dinner for the first time.

[Botox Ad / Michael Rappaport / Various Ad Voices]

How would you ask if there are

[Simon Hunter]

any unlocked guns in the home?

[Botox Ad / Michael Rappaport / Various Ad Voices]

Hey. Hey.

[Chad Millman]

We're so excited for tonight. Before we come over, though, may I

[Simon Hunter]

ask if there are any unlocked guns in your home? Our guns are stored securely locked in a safe that the kids can't access.

[Chad Millman]

Awesome.

[Botox Ad / Michael Rappaport / Various Ad Voices]

Learn how to have the conversation@ agreeto

[Chad Millman]

agree.org brought to you by the Ad Council.

[Simon Hunter]

I'm Mangesha together, and I'm back with

[Chad Millman]

a new season of the podcast Skyline Drive. This time, I'm diving into a rabbit

[Simon Hunter]

hole of peptides, organoids, blood boys, blue

[Chad Millman]

zones, and brain replacement to try to understand what this longevity obsession is all about and what it really means to live forever for all of us. Us I learned about some rad science.

[Botox Ad / Michael Rappaport / Various Ad Voices]

I can make a brain for you.

[Simon Hunter]

And then we can test what drug

[Chad Millman]

is the best for your brain as

[Botox Ad / Michael Rappaport / Various Ad Voices]

opposed to his brain.

[Chad Millman]

Here are some hard truths. I would expect Indians to age faster, but I did not expect it to be almost a four to five year acceleration and get myself into a world world of trouble. I'd say probably start bone smashing.

[Simon Hunter]

That doesn't work.

[Botox Ad / Michael Rappaport / Various Ad Voices]

Make it look more defined.

[Chad Millman]

They say it works.

[Simon Hunter]

I don't know.

[Chad Millman]

Listen to Skyline Drive how to live Forever on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts

[Simon Hunter]

or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Chad Millman]

All right, so you've been hinting that there is a team that is sort of the one we're eyeing. I'll be honest, I don't know which one we're talking about. To me it's the Bucks or the Saints for two vastly different reasons. I feel like it's the Bucks. Right.

[Simon Hunter]

It's not. I'm sorry.

[Chad Millman]

Okay, then let's talk about the Saints last. Let's talk about the Bucks first because to me there is a huge wild card here with the Bucks. They kept top bowls. Let me run through some of their numbers here before we get into that. They kept that bulls their plus 175 to win the division, 22 to 1 to win the conference, 50 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. Clearly the favorite from the NFC South, Todd Bowles gets gets another chance. Baker Mayfield gets his fourth year, so his longest run other than Cleveland. They drafted Reuben Bain, who I was a huge fan of. Feels like they walked into a Warren Sapphire situation because someone was trying to plant ugly stories about Ruben Bane right before the draft. Added linebacker Alexands alone. Great. Added Kenneth Gainwell, Steelers offensive MVP last year. 73 receptions for Kenneth Gainwell. Don't forget their often start to struggle. Last year when Bucky Irving got injured, that was a huge issue for them. Vita Vega wants out. Chances are they'll just give more money and he'll stay. The question is, can Baker bake? Will he be injured? How long can he last? How much can we count on him?

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, and they got to get that B to B done. I can't believe that they got contract disputes with him and Baker. That's just not the way you want to be heading to this. No, my view is it's just I love this team obviously. I just don't think the value there is betting wise. And yeah, if you want to take the over eight and a half, you could do that if you want. It's probably Better just to bet them to win the vision, right, At a. At a bigger plus number. Because if they're going to get the 10 wins, that usually wins this division, I mean, we know the deal the NFC south, it's just. It's an ugly mud fight. And you know, last year, that total collapse they had, that's got to be in the back of their minds, right? That's something that can motivate this Bucks team head in this season. I don't know about a lot of other people, but they have. I have them grade as my fifth best offensive line. So judges said if they got Gainwell, you got Bucky back. They're giving time to Baker. I mean, the Mecca Buca takes that next step with Godwin. That's a really, really good offense. So I love. They're trying to address the defense that was consistently at Achilles heel for them last year. They had a couple games where, you know, offensively they're putting up a ton of numbers. They just could not get stops. And then you know what happens. Baker is going to turn the ball over. You have Baker chasing from behind. He will turn the ball over. That's just who he is. He's got a ton of Brett Favre in him. Hopefully only the good things. But I, I can't get over this, this team, the Bucks, where it's like we talk all the time about letting these coordinators leave, and I just feel like they're paying for their sins. I'm not signing Lincoln, like, keeping around a head coach where, you know, we. We like Todd Bowles. He feels like a dinosaur to me in so many ways. His views. I mean, we've had a couple times we bet the Bucks and he's punting on fourth downs where it's like, dude, all the Atlantic. All the Atlantic numbers are telling you here, you have to go for it. And you have an offense in Baker. You need to trust this quarterback. This isn't the 25th quarterback in this league. This is a guy that's in the top 15, top 10. You need to trust him in those moments. And that's. That's hurt Todd Bowles, in my opinion, a lot of ways. So love the Bucks. I think we'll be able to get better value during the season. I'll take a position there. So I have no bets. Honestly, if I'm on their win totals or. Or their division odds. I just. I steered clear so far on this Bucks team, but the more numbers I dive into, it's like, my God, this offense could be an absolute Juggernaut.

[Chad Millman]

It's just about Baker, right? Like, and we talked about this with. With Rich Rebar, they're going to have Zach Robinson, who's going to be the offensive coordinator now. And look, who knows? Like, so many of these guys end up feeling like, you know, Rams retreads. Like, you're just grabbing a guy who was on the Rams staff and hoping that he's great. It's worked out for them. You're right about Liam Cohen. They had him in the building. They could have kept him, and then all of a sudden, they lost him. But it's Baker. It's Baker or bust. That's it. That's all you can count on. And, dude, we had some heartbreakers with Baker last year. Like, he truly. Some games, he won us some money, but he also hurt our feelings.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, people gloss over Baker. Went to Seattle, put up, what was it, 35 points. That Seattle defense and one in Seattle. Like, that first month and month and a half, it was insane how good Baker was in that team. And just like we said, Chad, those injuries catch up to him. So that's just. That's my hesitation right now. It's like, am I really about to invest this guy in the next seven months that he can't help himself to take these bad hits? So this year, like I said before, when you have the old line, the talent around it, it's kind of hard to keep making excuses for these type of players. It's. It's on you. You're the one taking these bad hits and trying to do too much. And that's. That's how I'm feeling a little bit

[Chad Millman]

here with Baker, Simon, the New Orleans Saints, their win total is seven and a half, minus 120 to the over. The Saints are taking money on the over at seven and a half, all because Tyler Schuck made a glorious run for Rookie of the Year. What did you bet him at last year for Rookie of the Year? You could have won a hundred thousand dollars like that.

[Simon Hunter]

200 to 1.

[Chad Millman]

200 to 1. You could have won a couple hundred grand on Tyler Schuck winning Rookie of the Year. You gave it out on the show. I stupidly did not listen and then had to suffer every single week at the end of the year when he went four of his last five to get this team to six and 11 on the year. And that's why everyone's all in on him right now. The question is, is that sort of false hope? Are we identifying something that is on the upswing? Did they play themselves out of position to draft someone great. Get Arch Manning plus two. Hold on, let me put on my glasses. I'm not able to read this one. Plus 260 to win the division, 40 to 1 to win the conference, 75 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. Kellen Moore in the second season. Look, same numbers as the Panthers and same numbers as the Falcons. So what are we missing here?

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, this is my biggest bet by far in this division is on the plus 270, plus 260, whatever you can find on this team to win this division. And I look at the Saints and it's just like, okay, my question was, are they going to go all in on shock right after what they saw last year? And they have, they've really addressed the offensive line. Could be another offensive line in the top five. Honestly, like them in the Bucks, offensive line grade wise aren't that different in my, in my grading scheme. And they brought Kamara back even though they have Travis etn. So that to me is another bonus. It's like, okay, you got your one veteran guy who's not gonna be complaining, making toxic in the locker room, he's gonna be all in. And you bring on the new guy who you just paid, who's actually really talented. I think ETN's a really good back, especially behind that offensive line where the Jags didn't have the best offensive line. He still was able to put in pretty impressive numbers. And Kellen Moore, I can't give enough credit to this guy, right? What he did for Jalen hurts getting him to that super bowl and winning the Super Bowl. Now what he's done for Shuck in his career, it's been really impressive. So it just feels like it's all there. It really does. Where it's like, am I buying fool's gold with Shuck? I could be like, we could be walking right into it. But he has a last place schedule. As great as that run was for them, they still came in fourth and this didn't division. So they have the easiest schedule than anyone else in this division. And I think they have almost all the same amount of talent as that Bucks team does. Like people are gonna be shocked. Defensively, this Saints team's actually pretty good. Like they've added pieces as well to this defense that I think they'll remember last year. Early in the season, their defenses were keeping a lot of games right. It was Rattler that kept turning the ball over. That's what kept hurting them. They kept losing games that way. So I, I'm really excited for the Saints team to see if they can be that team that takes that next step. But definitely the professional, better community. It's too much love. That's my fear chat. Like every pro I. With every guy I'm talking to, we all just absolutely love this Saints team. That really is the conversation. We're just a lot of Saints love and a lot of Atlanta teams. Like a lot of people are like, Atlanta's a good sleeper. The Saints are a good sleeper in this division. That's usually when the Bucks do kind of win it, right when everyone's kind of not talking about them at all. We've seen that before that, that Bucks team that, you know, it's, it's usually their division to win and we are overlooking them a little bit. I just can't get over that talent level of this stains team. Like if Shuck really is what he proved to be, which was big time throws like Chad, we bet on him. We saw in those games big. Yeah. Anytime we need him, save us. He really didn't. Olave is that type outside receiver talent wise that can do that. And in the draft they draft another receiver for him. Like they're all in on Shuck here. So yeah, people can tell I'm really excited for this team and betting this number and the fact that still above plus 250 I think is great value here. It's just, it's such a mismatch, crappy division. I don't think the books can go that low. Like what are they gonna keep dropping Atlanta? They're gonna keep dropping Carolina? Are they really gonna drop the books anymore? Like I feel like they're at the max level. They can price because it was plus 350. So the pros have been hitting this one pretty hard and I, I do think by the time we get to kickoff, Chad, I think hard Rocket special drop below +250. I just think more and more public betters when I come in on the Saints teams, we're closer to the season.

[Chad Millman]

Shock will chuck and it don't give a fuck. What do you think of that? Oh God, listen, we're a literary podcast, but how many plays did he make last year? Look, that last game against the Panthers, right? Like he came down to a couple of throws from winning offensive rookie of the year. He really did. Like I think there's a couple times where the Panthers went for it on fourth down. They ended up scoring and it forced Shock to have to put the Saints in a really difficult position and he had to, you know, he had to win the game, and he didn't. But he was. He was fearless. He played like an old man. He played like a guy who's 26 years old.

[Simon Hunter]

So I think you nailed it. In that moment, though, he finally looked like a rookie after, like, five weeks of always showing up. In that moment, he finally looked like where he made a couple stupid mistakes. It's like, okay, this kid is human. Because at one point, like you just said, he was about to win rookie of the year, where he was, like I said, 201, six weeks before that, he was nowhere to be found, left for dead. It was the total freak anomaly. That's. That's. I think Chad's summarizing. My fear here, people, is where it's like, was that. Am I buying fool's gold here? Was that real what we saw? Or was that just a streaky quarterback that none of these defensive coordinators had film on and Kellen Moore took advantage of that? Or did we just watch the birth of, you know, the next 10, 15 year starter for the Saints? The Saints, organizationally, they're all in as if he is. So that's why I'm so excited about Ben. This team where it's like the organization is supporting him. They're putting all the resources behind them. I got to put my money behind them because I just. I believe in with the situation.

[Chad Millman]

He was a miracle. I remember when you talked about it, I think it was a Sunday night, and they hadn't even won the game, and he was at 2001 in every single week after that. And because I didn't bet it, you made a point of bringing it up and pointing out that I didn't bet it. And you know what? Because I love you so much, because you are my bff, I never rooted against it. I didn't have any schadenfreude about it. I only wanted there to be success. What's good for you is good for the show. It's good for me. It's good for Matt Mitchell. I was all in. I was a little bit crushed when he threw those picks at the end of the Panthers game. But all of this feels like, oh, my God, we found our starter. And then, you know, he turns back into a pumpkin after week two.

[Simon Hunter]

He could. But this is what you want if you're a fan of the organization, right? Just like the way the Bears treated Caleb. Like they went all in on Caleb and basically got him the coach and used the draft as well to try to make Caleb Better, Right. The Saints are doing the same thing here. Everything they've done, a free agency, everything they've done in the draft, it's like, oh, my God, they think they have a guy. They're all in supporting this guy. So that, to me, is what's been so impressive. You see some teams, you know, be half in, half out, right? Like, they could be. Exactly. We're talking about where it's like, are we really sure about this guy? Really sure about going all in on this? And I love that they are. And I told you my viewpoint of it. The Saints can't lose here if Shuck is a total bus and a flop. Yeah, great. Great draft class coming out this year, and they're not invested that much in. What was your second or third round pick like, that much in the first place. So really, really nice spot to be as a Saints organizationally.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah. I'm excited for Kellen Moore. I was really glad that they actually turned around last year and people got to see that he's a really good coach. And I. Because. Because I thought he kept his team in games last year with the game plan, knowing the limitations of Spencer Rattler. And then it really started to open up when Tyler Schuck was playing from behind in a lot of these games. So I'd love. I'd love it for him. You know, I love an underdog story. All right, so we'll invest in the New Orleans Saints at +260.

[Simon Hunter]

You have a team in the division I really, that you love. Is Atlanta your team or just.

[Chad Millman]

You know, it's funny. It's like you're. In my head. I was just. I was just thinking to myself, like, they're a fun long shot, but why am I not more aggressive on the Bucks? Like, the way we lay. Like, the way we laid it out. If Baker's got a Mecca, if Baker's got Godwin, if Baker's got Gainwell, if he's got Bucky Irving, he's got a really good offensive line. Why don't I love this team? Like, why can't I commit full force to this team? Atlanta is a little bit of a. You got a squint to believe it. And Carolina is emotional. Right. So I don't know why I can't commit to the Bucks.

[Simon Hunter]

It is interesting. The books have them both at +350. Atlanta and Carolina +350 to win the division. It just. Yeah, I mean, obviously, I think we'll go through all the different divisions. This is probably the lowest odds of all four teams combined.

[Chad Millman]

Sure.

[Simon Hunter]

Divisionally. So even the sports books are like don't want to give too much value out there because we have no idea either. So it is crazy to think The Saints were at plus 350 and they're the only one that's been bet down while and Atlanta have both gone up. So you can definitely see the professional monies coming early here.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, I don't know if I believe enough in tua. It's like in theory I like it all, but I don't know if I believe it. Kyle Pitt seemed to be great for three games when it was time to get a new contract. Bijan is great when it doesn't matter. Those are my issues. I think with Atlanta. If I look at it sort of clear headed without being irrationally optimistic. I think the Bucks, I think in the end it's the Bucks. The Bucks just have the best team and the best quarterback.

[Simon Hunter]

All right, I'll see you in January.

[Chad Millman]

All right. All right. Simon Hunter this has been sharp or Square part of the Volume Podcast Network. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square like this video. Subscribe to the channel, Download some Spotify Apple pods wherever you get your pods rate. Review, subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.

[Simon Hunter]

It may feel. Oh beautiful, huh? It's a good way to wind up in concussion protocol even though you don't get into the game.

[Chad Millman]

Oh boy.

[Simon Hunter]

Take one for the team, I guess. I don't know.

[Botox Ad / Michael Rappaport / Various Ad Voices]

Plans can be a maybe for people with chronic migraine 15 or more headache days a month, each lasting four hours or more. Botox Anabotulinum Toxin A prevents headaches in adults with chronic migraine. It's not for those with 14 or fewer headache days a month. It Prevents on average 8 to 9 headache days a month versus 6 to 7 for placebo. Prescription Botox is injected by your doctor. Botox effects may spread hours to weeks after injection, causing serious symptoms. Alert your doctor right away as trouble swallowing, speaking, breathing, eye problems or muscle weakness can be signs of a life threatening condition. Those with these conditions before injection are at highest risk. Side effects may include allergic reactions like rash, breathing problems, dizziness, neck and injection site pain and headache. Don't receive Botox if there's a skin infection. Tell your doctor your medical history, muscle or nerve conditions like als, Myasthenia gravis or Lambert Eaton syndrome and medicines like botulinum toxins which may increase the risk of serious side effects. Make a plan and ask your doctor about Botox. Visit botoxchronicmigraine.com or call 1-844botox.

[Simon Hunter]

I'm Mangesha Teagadar, and I'm back with

[Chad Millman]

a new season of my podcast, Skyline Drive. This time I talk to scientists, biopunks, curmudgeons, blue zoners, super seniors, and Go

[Simon Hunter]

Iowa's top cryotherapy lab to try to understand this obsession with living forever and what it means for all of us.

[Chad Millman]

And I get into a bit of

[Simon Hunter]

trouble along the way.

[Chad Millman]

I'd say probably start bone smashing.

[Botox Ad / Michael Rappaport / Various Ad Voices]

That doesn't work.

[Chad Millman]

To make it look more defined, they say it works.

[Botox Ad / Michael Rappaport / Various Ad Voices]

I don't know.

[Chad Millman]

Listen to Skyline Drive how to Live Forever on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts,

[Simon Hunter]

or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Botox Ad / Michael Rappaport / Various Ad Voices]

This is Michael Rapoport and my podcast, the I Am Rappaport Stereo podcast, is unlike any one you've ever heard. If you're looking for strong opinions about sports, entertainment, politics, pop culture, and whatever else catches my attention, then subscribe now. This kid, Jafar Jackson, should absolutely, positively get nominated for his portrayal as Michael Jackson. Listen to I Am rapaport on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

[Chad Millman]

150 years ago, they were hunting us down to kill us.

[Botox Ad / Michael Rappaport / Various Ad Voices]

And now they're hunting down immigrants to deport them. This is First America, the true story of how the United States came to

[Simon Hunter]

be and how we got to this present moment.

[Botox Ad / Michael Rappaport / Various Ad Voices]

Listen to First America on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Simon Hunter]

This is an iHeart podcast, Guaranteed Human.