NFC WEST BETTING PREVIEW: Rams, 49ers, Cardinals & Seahawks Predictions

Summary

Sharp or Square: NFC West Betting Preview

Podcast: Sharp or Square
Episode: NFC WEST BETTING PREVIEW: Rams, 49ers, Cardinals & Seahawks Predictions
Date: August 6, 2026
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter

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Episode Overview

In this episode, betting expert Chad Millman and professional bettor Simon Hunter break down the NFC West from a betting perspective. They dig into win totals, divisional odds, and burning offseason questions around the Rams, 49ers, Seahawks, and Cardinals. The duo challenge prevailing narratives, highlight value plays, and riff on the mindset and reality of betting some of the NFL's most hyped and beleaguered teams.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. General NFC West Landscape

• Training camps have barely begun, but injury news and drama are already swirling.
• The division features three legit contenders (Rams, Seahawks, 49ers) and "one weak link" (Cardinals).
• Win totals (as of recording):
  • Rams: 11.5 (O -125)
  • Seattle: 10.5 (O/U -110)
  • 49ers: 9.5 (O -145)
  • Cardinals: 4.5 (U -160)
    ([05:26])

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2. Arizona Cardinals: Absolute Rock Bottom?

• "It feels hopeless right now. It feels like they’re playing for next year’s draft." — Simon (10:49)
• Rookie RB Jeremiah Love can’t escape the backfield; offensive line is an immediate liability ([06:30]).
• Jacoby Brissette is the presumed starter; notably low-QB salary signals a tank/rebuild.
• Vegas offering astronomical odds:
  • 100:1 division, 150:1 NFC, 500:1 Super Bowl, widest odds in recent memory ([06:40]).
• Marvin Harrison Jr. "looks totally lost" per training camp video; word is Philly already plotting to swoop him if Arizona gives up ([08:05]).
• Brissette’s 2025 stat line: 12 starts, 3,400 yards, 23 TD, 8 picks—solid backdoor cover possibilities when trailing ([11:04]).
• Betting advice: "I do not take this low of win totals. Football is really stupid that way... The difference [between teams] is not that extreme." — Simon ([09:37])
• Both agree: Under 3.5 is too risky even for such an abysmal team; value was at under 4.5 but now it’s moved ([09:37]).

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3. San Francisco 49ers: Can Shanahan Out-Coach the World Again?

• Recent car accident involving coach Kyle Shanahan sparked silly drama/obfuscation from team & media ([18:40])
  • Chad: "The whole thing...feels like honestly, much ado about nothing." ([19:45])
• On-field:
  • 9.5 win total, plus odds for division (+300)
  • Easy schedule, deep roster, elite coaching
  • McCaffrey called "a juggernaut" by Simon ([23:10])
  • Brock Purdy is the guy, but team kept Mac Jones as backup for insurance ([23:10])
  • Notable WR additions: Mike Evans (big upgrade over Aiyuk), Christian Kirk; Ricky Pearsall’s durability still a concern ([25:26])
• Defensive focus: Expectation placed on draft-heavy investments finally translating ([25:26])
• Value recommendations:
  • Simon has parlayed 49ers at +300 with Saints for division winners ([26:20])
  • Both hosts strongly favor the 49ers over 9.5 wins; “Just so much talent, so well coached, they’re going to get there.” ([27:11])

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4. Seattle Seahawks: The Overlooked Champs

• Defending Super Bowl champs, but only +210 for division ([27:49])
• Sam Darnold "looked incredible" in postseason; team continuity largely preserved ([27:49])
• Re-signed Smith-Njigba to a major deal, replaced Kenneth Walker with Jadarian Price (Notre Dame).
• Simon: “If you’re a fan, it's right to feel like you’re being disrespected...you didn’t really lose anybody,” only injury is RB depth ([28:56])
• Their stat: “It did come down to a backwards 2-point conversion pass that really dictated the entire season.” (on Rams vs Seahawks outcome) ([28:56])
• Sam Darnold needs a run-heavy, ball-control gameplan; can't sling 35+ times a game ([29:59]).
• “Super Bowl hangover is real, but the market has already priced that in”—Seattle over 10.5 wins (-110) is attractive compared to Rams ([31:58])
• Chad: “Being under the radar could actually give them an advantage in avoiding the Super Bowl hangover.” ([32:26])
• Both recommend betting Seattle at +210 and 49ers at +300 for division—“That’s where I’m investing my money.” ([31:58])
• Simon’s model has Seattle closer to +150 division price; “You’re getting huge value...” ([31:58])

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5. Los Angeles Rams: Hype Train Running Wild

• After near-Super Bowl run (lost by 4 in NFC Championship), market views Rams as clear favorite:
  • -105 division, +650 NFC, +550 Super Bowl ([36:38])
• Offseason: Traded for Miles Garrett (Def DMVP), rebuilt secondary (all 5 2025 CBs gone, added McDuffie & Jalen Watson)
• Market narrative: “Every sports fan wants to play the sliding doors game...the Rams are actually the better team [on paper].” ([36:38])
• Simon: “As much as they’re a juggernaut...the value just is not there.” ([38:28])
• Simon warns of Stafford’s durability—Rams got lucky on QB health last year; plays a high-risk style ([38:39])
• Best market play: “No value on Rams futures. If you want action, bet them to miss the playoffs at +400. There’s a world where they don’t make it out of a really tough division.” ([41:59])
• Chad: “That’s an insanely overvalued number. The value...at -105 is just not there. It’s a terrible, terrible number to be betting the Rams.” ([42:29])
• "No team—unless you want to say Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson—has more pressure than the Rams...the most hype I can remember since Brady's era." — Simon ([43:59])
• Chad: "You don't trade for Miles Garrett, you don't rebuild your defense...the expectations are Super Bowl or nothing. But we're not going to bet it at -105." ([44:25])

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Simon (Cardinals): "It feels hopeless right now. That feels like they're...playing for next year's draft." ([10:49])
• Chad (49ers): "This is a 10-win team...Even when they have nobody, they pull magic out of their hats. It’s ridiculous." ([22:26])
• Simon (Seahawks): "If you’re going to bet anyone in this division, Seattle (+210) and 49ers (+300) divisionally...that’s where I’m going to invest my money." ([31:58])
• Chad (Rams' odds): "That’s an insanely overvalued number...It’s a terrible, terrible number to be betting the Rams." ([42:29])
• Simon (Rams' pressure): "The most hype and pressure I can remember since Brady's era..." ([43:59])

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• [05:26] – Introduction of NFC West win totals; Cardinals as consensus worst team
• [09:37] – Simon’s take on Cardinals' abysmal outlook and betting approach to terrible teams
• [11:04] – Deep-dive on Jacoby Brissette and why he’s on the roster, not Kyler Murray
• [18:40] – Transition to 49ers; Kyle Shanahan’s car accident and its media fallout
• [23:10] – Comparing Purdy and Mac Jones; depth, WR additions, defensive outlook
• [27:49] – Seattle Seahawks assessment: returning champs, Darnold’s role, disrespect in betting market
• [31:58] – Value on Seattle and 49ers divisional bets
• [36:38] – Rams' hype explained; trades, new defense, sliding doors playoff moment, market overreaction
• [41:59] – Value on betting Rams to miss the playoffs (+400); comparison to other NFC contenders
• [43:59] – Discussion of Rams' immense expectations and pressure; conclusion on why to bet against the hype

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Betting Recommendations Recap

• 49ers: Over 9.5 wins (strong lean), division winner at +300 (value)
• Seahawks: Division winner at +210 (great value), over 10.5 wins (fair)
• Cardinals: Avoid under 3.5/4.5 due to variance, but acknowledge tank/rebuild
• Rams: Avoid futures at heavy juice; consider betting “to miss playoffs” at +400 as a high-upside fade

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Tone & Takeaways

Chad and Simon keep the conversation sharp, irreverent, and focused on actionable betting angles, with plenty of jabs at groupthink and media narratives. Their advice stresses discipline—fade the hype, take advantage of mispriced underdogs, and bet with your head, not your heart.

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Listen to Sharp or Square for the full breakdowns and context on these takes. Next episode: AFC West preview.

Transcript

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[Chad Millman]

Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock Bat. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my BFF Professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello Simon Chad how we doing my brother? Training camps are open and so much of what we've already talked about in our preseason stuff, you know, between two are getting injured and players are just dropping like flies all of a sudden. So it's Already getting interesting.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah. And we talked about all the players finally reported last week and you know, you're looking at the different teams and it's just crazy that I think a week from now we have the hall of Fame game. Like it's just, it's here, it's. It's so quick how it just jumps on top. You like that. And I think the season starts late though, right? It's either the 8th or the 9th is a kickoff. It's a weird.

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Yeah, yeah.

[Chad Millman]

It starts into the second week of September.

[Simon Hunter]

I, I just can't ignore the fact that I remember I was annoyed they got rid of that fourth preseason game and now the way they've kind of scheduled it out, like I'm looking at the schedule now, it's really only like a week, week and a half gap. I feel like it was always that way. We would have like a week and a half before that first game. So people probably have seen it. I think we have football, literally including college football, we have football every Sunday from this point forward, which this is, Chad knows dream of. This is the best.

[Chad Millman]

So hey, before we went on the air, I'm going to put you on the spot. This is how much of a sicko you are, but it's relevant to the quarterback conversation which has come up over and over again how committed you are to Jalen Hurts. So you don't have to give the amount that you bet, but tell the story about what you were doing on Madden with a fellow better about Jalen Hurts to prove your point about what a good quarterback is.

[Simon Hunter]

My point to this other better was that if you switched out Jalen Hurts with Stafford and simulated the season, the records would not be that much different. If we did multiple seasons of this past year with Jalen Hurts and it turned out it was true. It's like a one, literally a one win difference either up or down every season we simulated. So I did put a sizable amount of money like I told Chad on it and I did win that bet because he said it would be three losses. I said in no world is Jalen hurts three losses worse because I, I can't get over Sean McVeigh, how important of an offensive mind this guy is. So as I, I try not to beat Syrian down too much because I look like an egg on my face, full bad mouth and Syrian and then he went out, won a Super Bowl. But we can all agree there is levels to this and Sean McVeigh is a level higher above offensively, especially minded wise. So Jalen Hurts has never had anything like that in his life. I think the closest we could get that is what Shane Steichen or Kelly Moore.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, yeah.

[Simon Hunter]

And those are one and dones. Like imagine if you had Hertz with McVeigh for five, six years as a start in this league. Like someone that can maximize your talent and skills. So that was my point and won me a lot of money. So thank you Jalen Hurts. And thank you Madden for giving such a great product to simulate on.

[Chad Millman]

Well, I'm glad you did it and brought it up today because for part three of our division by division preview, we are moving on to the NFC west, home of those Los Angeles rams and Sean McVey. The questions everyone's going to ask can Sam Darnold and the Seahawks repeat? How dangerous is Miles Garrett to the Rams? Can Matthew Stafford have another MVP season? Will the Niners at full health be as competitive as we think they can all be? And then are the Cardinals going to be the absolute worst team in football? Here we go. Very, very Competitive division with one weak link. Win totals rams 11 1/2 over is minus 125. Seattle 10 1/2. It's minus 110 both ways. San Francisco 9 1/2. Minus 145 to the over. Arizona bringing up the rear. Five game gap. 4 1/2 is the total, minus 160 to the under. So we know there's not a lot of people with a lot of confidence in the Arizona Cardinals. Simon, we're going to start there. I don't know if you saw this, but there was that video going on, going around from I think the first or second day of Cardinals training camp where Jeremiah Love, the rookie from Notre Dame who everyone is so excited about, got the ball and he could not like the offensive line immediately. Basically gave the defensive line free reign and he was stuck in the backfield and could not, could not run forward and could not outrun anyone sideways because that's how fast everyone is in the NFL. They resigned Jacoby Brissette for 15 and a half million dollars. So now he's the only the fourth lowest paid starting quarterback in the NFL. It's a reset year. I mean 100 to 1 to win their division, 150 to 1 to win the conference worse than the NFL. 500 to 1 to win the Super bowl worse than the NFL. For years Vegas has been afraid to give anything more than 200 to 1. They're given 500 to 1. That's how little confidence there is in first year coach Michael Thor. On this team right now.

[Simon Hunter]

And anytime I see these odds, I can't help but go to Leicester City, who won the Premier League at 2001 and it's like.

[Chad Millman]

Or the Rams who won the super bowl at, you know, 200 to 1 in 1999.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, but you just, it's like you can't wrap your head around it. In what world could anyone even put a dollar on this Arizona team? And I don't know if any team's had a worse start to the year camp wise with their. Their videographers are just killing them. Like they put out a video of Marvin Harris just having horrible drops and he looks totally lost. I've heard from pretty good scouts in the Philly organization. They are already working that bring him home to Philadelphia angle where that that's raised from. That's where he's comfortable. Maybe they can find something. But Arizona is not, not budging. They are not giving up anything wise trying to trade him. I think they still view him as a normal receiver, which they should. Right? They spent a high draft pick on them. But it's only two years at this point. It is, but it does look like what people said was true, which was whatever his peak was in college, that's the max. There's nothing left to keep getting better at when he comes to this NFL league. And that feels like it's true. But he didn't have the drops in college. That's why I just think it's all mental. Whatever is going on with him, I just feel like it's so mental. And this Arizona team, I think for fantasy football people out there, this is a really fun team. They should have an awful defense. And Jacoby Brissette, you saw it last year, they'll chuck it. I mean, they'll be down 21, 28 points in the fourth quarter. He will be playing for his life because he likes those stats. Just he's a competitor. He's going to keep that offensive move in the ball. And they might have one of the best tight ends in all football, McBride. But Chad just said it like love as much as we love the talent.

[Chad Millman]

We.

[Simon Hunter]

We talked to nausea about these teams that draft these running backs so high up. Yeah, they can have a breakout rookie year, but they just don't have the infrastructure around him. So I could see him struggling. You know, Beck, who was apparently going to fight for a quarterback job, I think I saw some crazy stat. He didn't have a completion in seven on sevens, which if you know anything about seven on seven, it's impossible not to have a completion in seven on seven. So he looks like he is zero threat to Brissette's job. And most books have moved this to three and a half. So the fact of Hard rock they still have the four and a half at Crazy Juice to the under. You can shop around and take a three and a half if you want to. I don't do that. I do not take this low of win totals. I know it sounds crazy. You're saying when what world does the team get the four wins. Football is really stupid that way. Like as bad as this Arizona team is. I say it all the time. The difference is not that extreme as people are making out to be right then these guys are all pretty talented, all pretty played a pretty high level. They could steal games now. I think this Warren total is warranted because of this division. I mean Chad are about to run through it. It's a juggernaut of a division but that's. It's moved too much in my opinion. Chad. I can't, I can't take it under of three and a half in this NFL league. But we gave it out right away. When it first came out like they opened at four and a half I was like that's, that's a game game little game high for this Arizona team. So you want to take the big and the juice on the -160. You can do it. I just, I'm not going to invest my money in that type of number and I'll be patient here. But Arizona, it feels hopeless right now. That feels like they're which I had said they're playing for next year's draft.

[Chad Millman]

Well look, the one thing that I want to say about Jacoby Bessette is he started a surprising number of games last year when I was doing my research for this show. It was weird to me. He started 12 games. He kept us in so many games, right? Like there were so many games where it came down to the wire or they backdoor covered for us. He had 3,400 yards, 23 touchdowns. How many interceptions do you think he had?

[Simon Hunter]

I mean he's smart with the ball. I would say five.

[Chad Millman]

I, I thought you were going to go higher. He had eight, but still not that many. So like in games in which they were usually trailing 30 to nothing by halftime and I'm not even exaggerating, like there were plenty of games where they were down like that and because we were betting them as double digit dogs, we kind of felt like we were always in it because we knew in the second half he was just going to go nuclear. And so we were always betting on Jacoby Brissette. And because he'd been around, he needs a smart quarterback. One of the only quarterbacks who's ever started opening day for four different teams. Now I think it's the Patriots, the Colts, the Cardinals and one other team I can't remember. He only had eight picks and he would just loft the ball. He loved going deep, so.

[Simon Hunter]

And I heard they complain though, Chad, about percept. They're like why did we just pay him when we could just kept Kyler. Which I do, I do see that argument where it's like that's so true. I mean it is true. Like I can't, I don't.

[Chad Millman]

But here's, here's why. Here's why. Because with Kyler there's always going to be the expectation that he is going to be better than he is and going to make this team better than it really can be. They felt like they needed to move on and we saw this all year. This was a better offense with Jacoby Brissette than it was with Kyler Murray. So he wasn't playing in the system. What's that?

[Simon Hunter]

They didn't win a single game with Brissette. They won games with Kyler.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, it doesn't matter but like a little bit.

[Simon Hunter]

But I just, I just, I thought it was interesting from the Arizona standpoint of, you know, you care about your team, you want them to win. It is interesting they broke and paid Brissette that money where it's like wasn't the whole thing you were trying to save a buck. You get rid of Kyler, you're lose as well.

[Chad Millman]

And it's 15 and a half. You went from like being the lowest paid quarterback to being the fourth lowest paid quarterback. That's not break the bank money. You know what I mean?

[Simon Hunter]

That's true, that's true.

[Chad Millman]

I'm looking at their schedule, I don't see like Chargers, Seahawks, ners, Giants on the road.

[Simon Hunter]

Maybe now they, there's a reason they have the lowest win total I think I've seen in my performance professional career.

[Chad Millman]

But I'm even trying to find like justify not betting the under three and a half their games. Jets, Saints and Raiders are three of their final four games. It's going to come down to that. That's when you're going to know whether or not you got a shot. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bat Sportsbook. Some folks call this the slow period until football season, but on Hard Rock Bat we call it baseball season. There's a full slate almost every day to bet on building epic same game parlays and even live betting every inning. However you like to play ball, Hard Rock Bet has you covered. So if you're ready to step into the batter's box, sign up with Hard Rock Bet today and place a $5 bet. If it wins, you bet $150 in bonus bets on top of your winnings. That's right, an extra $150 in your account. Plus hard rock bet gives you new promos every single day. We're talking no sweat bets, profit boost, bonus bets, and more. Open Hard Rock Bet now and see what you've got today. And sure, Hard Rock Bet is Florida's only legal sportsbook, but you don't have to be in Florida to join the party. Hard Rock Bet is also live in Arizona, Ohio, New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois, Colorado and Michigan, with more states on the way. So download Hard Rock Bet and swing for the fences today. Payable and bonus bets not a cash offer Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida Offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital, LLC and all other states must be 21 or over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play, terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1833, playwise in Indiana, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9 with it. In Arizona, Ohio and Virginia, call 1-800- my reset gambling problem, call 1-800- gambler in Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey and

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[Chad Millman]

Help me Simon. Help me, help me. As we do every year. Not want to bet on Kyle Shanahan and The San Francisco 49ers win total is 9 1/2. Lowest in the the lowest of the three juggernauts. Their odds to win the division, as we said, I think they're at 300 to 1, 9 to 1 to win the conference, 17 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. I mean first of all, the whole Kyle Shanahan car accident thing, my feeling on this is that the equivocation on the part of the media to talk about why they may or may not have reported it is idiotic. The way the Niners have handled it and tried to say they're not going to talk about it is idiotic. The way Kyle Shanahan is now being treated like some kind of valiant gentlemanly hero because he's taking the blame for the accident when there was a report that a 21 year old woman who was also involved in the accident was at fault and she wasn't is idiotic. The whole thing, people, people on Twitter going off like they are heroes because they saw the report and they reported it when no one else in mainstream media would do it is idiotic. The whole thing to me feels like honestly, much ado about nothing.

[Simon Hunter]

On the other side of it, YouTubers, whoever you guys are that do the real reporting out there, thank you. We need you as a country. There's too much buddy buddy in this world and Chad knows exactly what I'm talking about. He's got his own buddy buddies in his own sports industry, which I get, right? It's all about building relationships. But my God, like back in my day, Chad, a coach gets in an accident, I'm hearing about it 30 minutes later, right? There's a cop leaking it to whoever and that story is ran on ESPN that morning breakfast, right? And you know, a 14 car pile up. The head coach was the one potentially texting on his phone and or grabbing his phone wherever it was. That's why the accident happened. That does matter. That is a story that should have been reported. So I, I hate the way we've gone society like there's something don't hear about.

[Chad Millman]

I'm being misinterpreted. I'm not saying that it shouldn't have been reported. I'm saying the drama around it feels stupid to me. Like the way people are trying to defend themselves for the way they reported it. I'm with you. I think it should have been reported right away. But I think that the way the Niners have handled it is idiotic. I think that the way the media handled it is completely idiotic and trying to explain it away is idiotic. I think that's what I'm talking about. As much ado about nothing. Like the, the debate around how it is being handled to me is stupid.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah. I think the 49ers blew in the sense that my initial thought was he was drinking and driving because they did delay it. Because to me, if he was, if he just simply was rich in his fellow cell phone, why not tell everyone? Like the fans deserve to know their coaches alive and safe, right? I mean his injuries were pretty gruesome. So yeah, that's why I just thought the whole disconnect was weird where it's like, what are they trying to hide? Because that's. We're on the same boat. If you don't report something like that, something's being hidden, right? Who was in the car with him? That was another question kept popping up. So yeah, back to the football side of it. Is this not the easiest bet in this division? Taking their over win total nine and A half. In what world do they does this? Do they not get the 10 wins if Shanahan is alive, if Purdy survives the whole season. This is a 10 win team. We've seen it time and time again. Even when they have all the 12

[Chad Millman]

win team when, when, when they had nobody. Yeah, like last year, Matt Jones. I said this, I said this on the other shows. Sorry to interrupt you but like Matt Jones was one of the only quarterbacks in the NFL qual with qualified number of passes who was top 10 in drop back per EPA and in EPA per drop back and in success rate. The other guy, Brock Pery, like that's how good Kyle Shanahan is at this when he's got no receivers. Christian McCaffrey having a subpar year even though he was comeback player of the year, no defense. And these guys continue to pull magic out of their freaking hats. It's ridiculous.

[Simon Hunter]

As a McCaffrey owner from last year, Chad, he was like a juggernaut. I think he was number three best fantasy player in all of all fantasy football. So subpar to you. Juggernaut year. To me, I don't know, a little different. I took a ton of heat last year and I said that. The Shanahan I know in the back of mine is like if I could trade Purdy right now for two first round picks and just have Mac Jones be my starter and pay him on a discount, that's a better Future for the 49ers. But you know, Purdy is their guy. I get it. But it's just my mentality right away when we saw Mac Jones play was. I think you just said it there, Chad. There wasn't that big of a drop off. Like he stepped right into that offense. And the fact that he came back right, they could have traded them. They had offers. I think I forget and that wasn't Sheff, but someone said they had like an offer for a third or a fourth and they wanted a first or a second or something like that for Mac. Like they basically viewed him as such a good piece to their offense and so cheap they didn't want to move unless the price is right. So I know it's after this year he's a free agent so obviously they weren't able to resign him. But to me that's a big deal. That's not talked about enough. The fact that Mac did come back right where Purdy has had bad injury luck. Yeah, you have a guy that can step in in this division and still win you games. That's a Huge deal. I mean, Mac Jones, we all remember beating that Rams team was a Thursday night Football that was incredible. Like he was tearing them up, that Rams defense. So we know the talent level there. Was there going to be a drop off from Salah even? Of course. Right. We talked about it last year. Their defense was incredibly young. They had a couple games. They just could not get anything going defensively. Offense at the end of the season kind of failed them. Right. They had injuries like Chad was talking about the offensive line, it just, it kind of petered out the end of the season. It's kind of the same thing here where they have the third place schedule in their division. Right. They have an easier schedule obviously in the Rams in Seattle, you expect them to be healthier than they were last season. Just talking about injury luck and you know, I keep looking at this team, I know that IUK is a big deal, losing them offensively, but you would think Mike Evans stepping in, that's such a huge upgrade. Like they went from having a zero at the position because IUK wouldn't play to now, you know, Ricky's not your number one. The fact you can have Mike Evans be your number now, it only might be for six, seven games because he also keeps having hamstring injuries and other things like that. He's such a professional. You have to think how much he's gonna help the guys in practice. Everything like that. That's such a big building.

[Chad Millman]

Don't forget. Don't forget. They also added Christian Kirk and that's what's interesting to me is they recognize they've got huge wide receiver holes to fill because Ricky Pearsall, he couldn't get on the field last year either. And he was. Had a hard time being on the field his, you know, I think his rookie year as well. So they need help at the receiver position. It is entirely about the defense. Like what are they going to do with the collection of players that they have. We talk about Steve Spagnolo and what he's been able to do with the Chiefs and how he's performed wonders with a defense that last year did not have its full, you know, arsenal. Same with the Niners. Like they've, they've gone all in on drafting to improve their defense and this is going to be the year where they kind of have to prove it.

[Simon Hunter]

And I actually had them closer to plus 200 for this division. So the fact that they're plus 300, I have a couple small bets I've done with them with the saints who are plus 250. Put them parlay together, you get crazy good numbers. Like, there is a world where this team, just like last year, it comes in the final two, three weeks. You can hedge out of it. And that's what's so fun about this division. It's like Seattle. Yes, they're a juggernaut. Or the Rams are a juggernaut. We know that deal, Chad. Once the season starts, you can throw all that preseason hype out. Once the games start, things get tight. These teams get tight. They're all an injury away from their whole season's collapsing. So it's not that far off. They want to take a position on 49ers team. Like, they're not as far behind the Rams or Seattle as the public perceived them to be right now. So obviously, Shanahan spent all off season watching that embarrassment game against Seattle. Remember Seattle shut them out two weeks ago?

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, yeah.

[Simon Hunter]

Not two weeks in a row, but two games in a row. Right? They shut him out. 49ers went to Philadelphia, beat the Eagles in the playoffs, then went to Seattle and got shut out again. And I remember Shannon just talking about how you went to a dark hole and watched that tape over and over again. Just see how basically got mastermind by McDaniels. So McDonald. So I. I look at this team where, you know, it's. It's all there in front of them. They have the talent. It's all about the health at that number. Plus 300 for this division. Chad, I have to put a little bit on, if you want to know. My bigger bet, though, it is on their wind tilt. I just, I. I cannot see them not getting the 10 or 11 wins. There's just so much talent, so well coached. They're going to get there.

[Chad Millman]

It's interesting to me that the Seattle Seahawks, reigning Super bowl champs, number one seed 14:3, Sam Darnold, looking incredible. They're plus 210 to win the division. Plus 575 to win the conference. 11:1 to win the Super Bowl. Mike McDonald's third year looking like all the sort of genius that people thought he would be. They added a running back. They added a running back from Notre Dame, Jadarian Price, at the end of the first round to replace Kenneth Walker, but not a ton of big additions. You know, their biggest move was really just signing Jackson, Smith and Jigba to that huge, huge extension. But what's interesting to me is that this division is so competitive and. And there's so much hype about the Rams. So we'll talk about next that the Seahawks, the reigning champs who haven't really changed much all of a sudden can't even be the leading contender in their own division.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, I know we beat Seattle fans over the head with it, but it, it is the reason where there are questions about the Seattle team is because we just think they're so close to these other teams. Their division there just isn't that big of a gap and sounds stupid, but it did come down to a 2A backwards 2 point conversion pass that really did dictate the entire season last year. Like the Rams could easily be sitting here right now. Stafford, two time super bowl champion. It was all there home field. It does matter that much because you saw Sam Darnold was never played well against that Rams defense. He found it in that playoff game. He was so comfortable at home in that moment. I mean, that was the best game of Sam Darnold's career. He outplayed Stafford in the playoffs in the biggest game he needed to play in the NFC Championship game. So, you know, I look at this team and I think it's right if you're a fan to feel like you're being disrespected, right? The fact that you're +210 to win your division after what Chad just said, you didn't really lose anybody. Like you could say you lost Kenneth Walker. Kenneth Walker split time with Charbonnet. Charbonnet, freak of nature. He might be back for week one, which is blowing my mind. Like when that report came out the other day, really, I couldn't believe it because to me, the draft of Price, that makes perfect sense. Like, yeah, he is so good, so talented. You know, I, I talked about that. They loved him long ago. Like they were talking about him months before the draft, how they were eyeing this kid from Notre Dame and you know, the talent's there now. Can he pass, block, can he catch the blow? The backfield, that's going to have to be seen, right? We, that's the question. Coming out of college for him, he just didn't get a lot of touches because obviously Jeremiah Love was the number one for Notre Dame. So, you know, I look at the Seattle team, it feels like it's going to be the same old, right. They're going to be more reliant on their defense. Losing QBAC is going to be a big deal. We'll see what they're going to be like offensively. But the blueprint is there. You're not going to win Sam Darnold chucking the ball 35 times in a game, right. The first half of the season they tried doing that was not working. They became run heavy. The two headed monster, Kenneth Walker and Charbonnet. It worked wonders. Just ball possession. If you're not turning the ball over, the defense like they have, the other team will turn the ball over. Now you're giving a short field to Sam Darnold, which is any quarterback can excel there. But that honesty is where he is at best, right when he's on our short field. We've seen Sam Donald be much better than, you know, when he's at his own 20, tries to stretch the field. That's when those picks happen. So I really do like the Seattle team. My hesitation is I just, I say it time and time again. These guys who've never been there before, the year after the super bowl, it's, we have the data, Chad. The super bowl hangover is real. Winning the super bowl is a real thing. It's just not the same. The next season the struggle is different. So you know, if I'm trying to bank and bet heavy into Sam Darnold here, it's a little worrisome, but the markets kind of price that in the fact they're minus 110 on the over of 10 and a half and the Rams are 11 and a half and they're minus 125 to the over. How do you not bet Seattle that's such a better price, better number than anything you can bet on the Rams. So I think they're in the same boat where the 49ers were. It's like the Rams, they're stealing, they're stealing so much of the spotlight. You're getting value on Seattle just like you're getting, getting value on this 49ers team. So I think I'm playing, people are seeing what hand I'm playing here a little early. But if you're going to bet anyone in this division, Seattle divisionally, Sporting outers divisionally, to me, that's where I'm going to invest my money. Plus 210 on Seattle or plus 300 on the 49ers. Like that's, that's the value. Both these teams should be closer to plus 200, the 49ers sake and plus 150 in my model for the Seattle team. So I think you're getting huge value right now just because the preseason hype is peak level right now in this new, this Rams team.

[Chad Millman]

What's really interesting about Seattle, because they are coming off this super bowl and you Point out it's, it's just hard to repeat a Super bowl champ like, you don't get the same injury luck. You don't get the same play luck. There's just momentum, things that happen. But because they are not in any way considered the dominant team in the NFL or even in their own division, that actually could give them an advantage in being under the radar as a Super bowl champ and eliminating some of that hangover because there can be a little bit of something to play for because they need to prove again, like that it wasn't a fluke that they are the best team in their division. That all the love that the Rams are getting all of a sudden, it's not really something that they've earned. Whereas the Seahawks earn the position. People can say that those things don't matter, but I do think they do. And I think mentally this actually helps them a little bit by not being the team that's getting all the flowers right now.

[Simon Hunter]

I think we both agree there's, there's no world the Rams are considered a win better than them, right? It's just, it's just totally market manipulation. The fact that they're 11 and a half. The Rams are 11 and a half, minus 125. You get the Seattle Seahawks at minus 110 over 10. I know they have a first place schedule, but it's like these are 1 2, 1A 1B of the entire NFL, right? I think most people, most people models right now have the Rams at one, have Seattle right there too. So it just feels like it's too much movement on the lines from the general public. And that's where we come in to take that value chud.

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[Chad Millman]

Well, look, the Rams, let's talk about them. Before the Miles Garrett trade, they were the team that was getting a lot of attention because I think a lot of people were thinking about what you mentioned earlier, which is one backwards pass call away from getting the number one seed and potentially winning their second super bowl with Matthew Stafford who had won the mvp. Instead, they got to have the hardest road and they got to go on the road and have a miracle win against the Bears and then they got to try to pull it off again against Seattle and they can't. And all of a sudden people think about that, right? And every sports fan wants to be the smartest person in the room and everyone likes to play the sliding doors game that this is what would have happened if they end up getting that play overturned and it goes in their direction. We're talking about that backwards pass on a two point conversion that went Seattle's way. And so all of a sudden everyone is like, oh my God, the Rams are actually the better team. And then they get Miles Garrett and so they go 12 and 5. Last year they had that magical win against the Panthers in the wild card. They get that magical win against the Bears in the second round of the divisional round. Then they lose to Seattle by four in a great game in the NFC championship. All those things conspiring to make the Rams the odds on favorite to win everything. The Super Bowl. They're minus 105 to win their division, plus 650 to win the Super Bowl. No. 1, no one ahead of them. Three to one to win the conference, that's also the favorite. Man, we've talked about it. Get off the hype train.

[Simon Hunter]

But you, you perfectly worded there though. They're plus 550 to win the Super Bowl. And you just said it like that was think of those playoff games like that the Bears game, they could have lost that game.

[Chad Millman]

This the, the Panthers game, they could have lost.

[Simon Hunter]

Right? The Panthers, they could easily have lost. So it's like as much as they're a juggernaut, that's why I love Less Need. He went to this off season and Matt Mitchell had amazing note in our notes. They got rid of every corner. They had all five corners gone. That's, that's what we always talk about these GMs who like they actually do something. They don't just talk and they don't say, well, we can't do this, the money doesn't work, blah, blah, blah. No, you're seeing an organization that's willing to go out there and go over the luxury tax, make that money work. Maybe they're kicking down whatever it is, 100 million down the line. Right. They're going to be in cap hell in three, four years. Irrelevant. Like their, their GM found a way. And the fact that he went out and did get McDuffie, which we both agree is an incredible cornerback. This is right. That's why their eyes started moving because they went out Guy McDuffie. They went out and signed Watson as a corner and it's like, okay, now they should be the favorite of this division. Then you bring a Miles Garrett. It just shocks the whole system. Everybody was freaking out, which they should be. It's like, oh my God, you have the MVP from last year now with the defensive mvp. And they're both in their primes. I guess Stafford is not body wise, but mentally you have the highest IQ you could possibly have. For both these guys. Like these are guys who, they have seen everything now both sides of the ball. Like there is no blocking scene that Miles Garrett hasn't faced or seen in his career. Now we'll see what they try to do defensively against Mount Garrett. Because it's just, you know, I. I can't get over the fact that you have the best offensive mind ever now with Miles Garrett. Like, the trade secrets are going to be giving each other McVeigh and Miles care. I just would love to be in that room here where they're talking about, because McVeigh obviously can see things. You can see the way offensive lines do. And he can now tell, you know, Miles Garrett, who already knows everything, put him in better positions. I understand the hype, but what we just talked about, the value just is not there. Minus 105 hard rock for them to win this division. In what world are you betting that? That is a horrible, horrible bet. You are betting a team that, like I said, they are very talented. Like all the teams in their division, they all have Achilles heels. They all have weaknesses that can be exploited and could show up pretty ugly the regular season. The biggest one has to be Stafford. Stafford just did not take hits last year, whatever that was. You could say they got lucky. You could say how much better their offensive line was. We've seen it time and time again. Stafford, that's not his style of play. He always takes hits. That's who he is. He's just a guy that he's looking for those big plays downfield, especially to Puka. That's just always been his style. And they. They got away with that last year. And, like, it's just. You're betting a lot on a guy at his age to keep getting away with that at a bad number. And, you know, if you want to take a position on it, I totally get it. I just wouldn't. I just think there's no value. There's tons of value on a Seattle team that's just as good. Tons of value on a 49ers team that they are a step below that 49ers team. But with injury, luck, things breaking the right way, we could easily see them winning this division. So I know it's boring, it's not fun, but I'm. I still think the best value right now is betting them not to make the playoffs of plus 400, plus 350. It's just there is a world where this Rams team does not make the playoffs during a very tough division. The NFC is good, man. Like Green Bay, Detroit, the Bears. One of them is going to be outside looking in, and I think they're going to be the type of team that could give the Rams a real fight for that seven or six seed, if the Rams do have a down year in some sense. So I just, I. I've really not invested anything to the Rams. I think the hype's too much. And yeah, anyone out there, there was a window there. You could have bet them right for the super bowl and taking that position. I know plenty of people that did. But at this point, if you're betting the Rams, you're a sucker. There's just no value there. Unless you're betting, which I love to do, super bowl match. If you want to bet. I think I give it out Rams against the Bengals at like 101 or something like that. I got no issue with that. But betting that a plus 550 for Super Bowl, I just think that's bad odds. You'll be able to get better odds in season. I think especially if they don't win the division, you'll be able to get them at at least plus 700, plus 800 in the season. So be patient if you want to bet the Rams.

[Chad Millman]

So the Rams, as you noted, they replaced their entire cornerback room. Five cornerbacks from last year are gone. But I also want to point something out because it's really important. The odds for the Rams to win their division are minus 105. I'm just looking at the odds for every other team to win their division. How many of them are at minus numbers? The Bills and the Ravens. The Bills playing in a division where they have the New England Patriots, they have the New York jets, and they have the Miami Dolphins. Those bottom two teams could be two of the worst teams in the NFL. The Ravens playing a division with the Steelers, where there's a lot of questions. And the Browns, who don't have a quarterback. The Rams are minus 105. In a division that has the defending super bowl champs and a team that consistently plays to 10, 11, 12 wins. That's an insanely overvalued number. I think that's the point that we're trying to make. As good as the Rams are, the value, and that's what we're supposed to be Talking about at -105 is just not there. It's, it's, it's, it's. It's a terrible, terrible number to be betting the Rams.

[Simon Hunter]

And they've by far the most pressure. Can we agree Chat? In football, no team. Unless you want to say Josh Allen and Lamar. Yes, Individually, they have a ton of talent. No talking about just team wise. My God, the Rams have the most hype. And pressure. I can remember since Brady's era like when Brady had the had won the super bowl and they're going for the, going for back to back. Like I just, I can't remember the last time a team had this type of expectation and pressure. Like this is a you don't trade

[Chad Millman]

for Miles Garrett, you don't trade for Trent McDuffie, you don't get Jalen Watson, you don't rebuild your defense in from the back end to the front end the way they did with glamour positions that everyone knows you need to be able to have high profile talent at. The expectations are super bowl or nothing. Which is great. They did it a couple years ago. The picks, they went all in. Gotta love it. But we're not going to bet it at minus 105.

[Simon Hunter]

No, it's one of the best storylines of football with me and Chad here. We're about betting value and there is zero value on this Rams team.

[Chad Millman]

Which is why we're going to bet him not make the playoffs at plus 400. Here we go. Ugliest show in podcasting Simon. We're going to return on Tuesday. We're going to continue with our NFL division betting previews. This one is going to be the AFC west, home to two of our favorite quarterbacks in the NFL. This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume Podcast Network. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video. Subscribe to the channel, download some Spotify Apple pods wherever you get your pods. Rate, Review, Subscribe, Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Till next time. Love you

[Simon Hunter]

that is not caught.

[Chad Millman]

You see Hopkins there motioning back to

[Simon Hunter]

Murray about maybe couldn't see the ball.

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That's true.

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[Colin Cowherd]

this is Colin Coward from the Herd with Colin Cowherd. Every day American heroes put it all on the line to protect our freedoms, communities and families. And behind every folded flag and retired uniform is a family that carries the weight of their sacrifice. Folds of Honor steps in with educational scholarships for spouses and children of fallen or disabled military service members and first responders. The mission is life changing and monthly donations make it possible. Become a donor [e-mail] to help meet their sacrifice with hope.

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