Sharp or Square – NFL Conference Championship Sunday Bets

Podcast: Sharp or Square
Hosts: Chad Millman, Simon Hunter
Episode: NFL Conference Championship Sunday Bets: Patriots-Broncos, Rams-Seahawks
Date: January 20, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode finds hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter buzzing with emotion fresh off Indiana University's stunning run to the college football national championship. However, the bulk of the show turns to sharp-vs-square perspectives on betting the NFL's Conference Championship matchups: Patriots-Broncos (AFC) and Rams-Seahawks (NFC). The duo dig into line movements, team trends, rest advantages, and offer “Simon Says” bets and a stats-packed look at possible angles for each game. Lively banter and plenty of personal sports fandom color the tactical betting analysis.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Emotional Recap: Indiana’s Championship & the Power of Sports Fandom

• Chad’s Indiana Story (02:30–07:54):
  • Chad describes his euphoric journey as Indiana University wins the national football title—drawing more congrats than when he had children.
  • The superstitions and rituals among friends are highlighted: “We had a good 15-minute conversation about, is the karma connected to us or is the karma connected to the teams?” (05:45, Chad Norman)
  • Simon and Chad reflect on sports suffering, loyalty, and the communal bond fandom brings.
  • Notable Quote: “It's only through suffering that we feel most alive.” (12:15, Matt Mitchell + Chad paraphrasing)

2. NFL Conference Championship Game 1: Patriots at Broncos

• Line Movement Analysis & Backup QB Impact (20:27–26:37)

  • Line opened with Broncos as favorites, but swung to Broncos +5.5 after news Bo Nix was out and Jared Stidham starting for Denver.
  • Simon’s Take (21:10):
    • “Simon says, give me the Denver Broncos. I want to play a game. Simon says, I might be putting my life savings on this Broncos team. This is how egregious this line movement is.”
  • Hosts believe the market has dramatically overreacted to the quarterback change—Nix to Stidham is not worth an 8–9 point swing.
  • Comparisons to Historic Backup Runs: Chad mentions Nick Foles and the improbable Eagles Super Bowl, suggesting overreactions to backups are common and often misplaced.
  • Sharp vs Square: Both are aligned—back the Broncos plus the points as the public overvalues the Patriots off their previous wins.

• Stat Trends and Professional Angles (24:41–31:38)

  • Key historical trends:
    • Home playoff dogs of 4+ points: 9–0 ATS in last 50 years (25:41, Simon Hunter)
    • Sean Payton strong as home underdog; 12–10 SU in career
    • Teams playing after OT in the playoffs have struggled: 0–5 SU, 1–4 ATS since 2015
    • “Just take that future on the Super Bowl at 13–1. But to me the number that's the key here...five and a half just feels like a gift.” (31:38, Simon Hunter)
  • Total Discussion (31:38–33:57):
    • Some lean toward the over but wary of weather in Denver. Both QBs turnover-prone; possible short fields and point swings.

• Props Mentioned (33:57–34:25): Will monitor Jared Stidham INTs (line at 0.5), Drake May passing TDs (line 1.5).

3. Buffalo Bills Coaching Change Rant (18:16–20:27)

• Matt Mitchell’s Segment:
  • Bluntly pushes back against Bills fans lamenting Sean McDermott's firing, labeling “Buffalo vs the Refs” mugs as “loser” mentality.
  • Notable Quote: “If you see me drinking out of that mug, it's because it contains the elixir that will end my life.” (20:06, Matt Mitchell)

4. NFL Conference Championship Game 2: Rams at Seahawks

• Initial Leanings & Home/Road Trends (39:43–48:49)

  • Rams-Seahawks line holding at Seahawks -2.5, total 47.5. Rams have not covered in playoffs but keep surviving despite lackluster play.
  • Chad’s Dilemma: Loves the Rams but fears he’s idealizing them; sees real risk of “brain farts” on offense and questions play calling aggressiveness.
  • Simon’s Response:
    • “I'm with you...the bar is just set so high [for Rams]...every week they've kind of fallen short of that bar.” (41:02, Simon Hunter)
  • Rams' fatigue is a real concern:
    • This is their fourth straight road game, including potentially demoralizing OT and tough travel schedules.
    • Stat: Playoff teams on a 3rd straight road game are 12–30 SU; as dogs, just 9–28 SU (48:49, Simon Hunter).

• Injury Report and Matchup Factors (44:49–47:50)

  • Rams may be without top two CBs; tackling issues showed against swift Bears.
  • Seahawks lost Zach Charbonnet but still pose a credible rushing threat.
  • QB comparison: Both teams can and do hide their QBs with the run, especially LA with Darnold’s oblique injury and the run-heavy approach.

• Rest Disparity: Seahawks “rested” much of their starters late, are fresher, and at home—a key angle for Simon ("The rest advantage, especially at home, is huge. 21 and 7 straight up with that edge.” [43:20, Simon Hunter])

• Sharp Consensus: Both like Seahawks -2.5 but suggest patience to see how pros affect the line; Rams have some comp advantages in prior head-to-heads but schedule, injuries, and situational factors are too much to ignore.

• Total & Player Prop Notes (50:23–50:44)

  • No strong total lean yet; waiting to check health, injury reports, weather.
  • Props in contest: Jackson Smith-Njigba TDs (O/U 0.5), Matthew Stafford long completion (O/U 39.5).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Chad on Sports Fandom:
  “I didn't have that many people reach out when I had kids, right? Like, that is astonishing to me.” (03:30)
• Simon Hammering the Broncos:
  “Simon says, give me the Denver Broncos. ... I might be putting my life savings on this Broncos team. ... This is how egregious this line movement is.” (21:10)
• Matt Mitchell’s Bill Rant:
  “If you see me drinking out of that mug, it's because it contains the elixir that will end my life.” (20:06)
• Simon on Why Not to Fade the Seahawks:
  “You blindly got to bet the Seahawks here. Like, it's just all the numbers back up exactly. ... The rest disparity is too much.” (48:49)
• Chad’s Metanarrative:
  “It's only through suffering that we feel most alive.” (12:15, paraphrasing Matt Mitchell)
• Simon, the Surreal State of Final Four QBs:
  “It's crazy to think I'm talking about a Stidham versus Darnold Super Bowl here, but I think that's what we're looking at here, brother.” (49:53)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 02:30–07:54: Chad’s Indiana victory odyssey & reflections on fandom, karma, grief & sports
• 07:54–12:40: Simon joins in, coaching matter; “shock” at Indiana’s 16–0 season
• 18:16–20:27: Matt Mitchell on the Bills and Sean McDermott
• 20:27–26:37: Patriots-Broncos line movement, backup QB impact, Simon’s “life savings” moment
• 24:41–31:38: Historical playoff stats, sharp/square division, Sean Payton narrative
• 31:38–33:57: Discussion of game total (lean over), player prop leans
• 39:43–47:50: Rams-Seahawks: fatigue, road trip history, matchup issues, injuries
• 48:18–50:23: Trends for teams on 3rd straight road game; consensus for Seahawks side
• 50:44–51:51: Remaining games, wrap-up, contest & upcoming coverage

Final Consensus Bets, Leans, and Advice

• Broncos (+5.5):
  • Simon says it’s a must-bet: “I might be putting my life savings on this Broncos team.”
  • Market is wildly overreacting to the QB change; backup Stidham is undervalued.
  • Historic trends favor home underdogs in this spot.
• Seahawks (-2.5):
  • Rams' road fatigue, injuries, and rest disadvantage are too much to ignore.
  • Both hosts want to bet the Rams, but all indicators point to trusting the fresher, home Seahawks unless a dramatic line move offers value.
• Totals: Lean over for Patriots-Broncos but waiting for weather/injury clarity before betting either total.
• Props: Monitoring INTs and TDs for Stidham and May; similar for Smith-Njigba and Stafford in the NFC game.

Tone and Language

The episode blends analytic rigor with candid sports fandom—a mix of hard numbers (“9–0 ATS last 50 years for home playoff dogs of 4+ points”) and warm, personal moments. There’s plenty of banter and humility around missed picks, suffering, and communal highs—creating a relatable tone for both serious bettors and everyday fans.

This episode serves up a full menu of sharp statistical angles and joyous fandom, setting the table for one of the most unique championship weekends in NFL and college football history. Whether you’re betting the games or just chasing the emotional ride, Chad and Simon provide all the wiseguy insights and real-talk you need to make your picks or just enjoy the ride.