Sharp or Square – NFL Divisional Weekend Reactions
Podcast: Sharp or Square
Hosts: Chad Millman (Betting Expert), Simon Hunter (Professional Sports Gambler)
Date: January 19, 2026
Episode: NFL Divisional Weekend Reactions: Rams-Bears, Texans-Patriots, Broncos-Bills, Niners-Seahawks
Episode Overview
Chad Millman and Simon Hunter break down a wild NFL Divisional Weekend, dissecting sharp and square betting results from four of the biggest games: Rams-Bears, Texans-Patriots, Broncos-Bills, and Niners-Seahawks. They analyze surprising outcomes, bad beats, key coaching moves, and what it all means for bettors and fans. The conversation is candid, filled with emotional highs and lows (especially for Chad’s Bears), and laced with inside betting wisdom—from missed opportunities to hard lessons learned.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks
Segment Start: [03:57]
- Betting Recap: Under 45.5 and 49ers +7.5 missed.
- Chad and Simon discuss the lopsided outcome, punctuated by short fields and turnovers. Chad expresses amazement at how the game unfolded, citing huge plays and momentum swings.
- Chad: “The Niners were doing everything they could to help the Seahawks score touchdowns. And the Seahawks were doing everything they could to not score touchdowns.” [05:25]
- Simon: Praises Seattle’s dominant defense, critiques both QBs. “Neither quarterback had a great game. Just the defense. The Seattle defense was so dominant. Every possession was on a short field for their offense. And yeah, they’re looking like the best team in football right now. 41 points. They absolutely dominated.” [06:30]
- Discussion of how under bets can be destroyed by defensive/special teams scores or turnovers.
- Reflection on Seattle and LA Rams as deserving NFC title game opponents.
2. New England Patriots vs. Houston Texans
Segment Start: [09:10]
- Bets: Patriots -3.5 (win); Under 40.5 (loss)
- Game defined by turnovers: “Eight turnovers, plus a couple more fumbles that were recovered by the fumbling team. Wild game.” [09:45]
- Chad details how almost half the points resulted directly after a turnover, not sustained drives.
- Simon credits New England’s defense and Drake Maye's resilience: “Can we not give a ton of props to Drake May? Three touchdown passes against that defense… again. He was stupid too with the ball … but just trying to survive with the under.” [11:14]
- Chat about C.J. Stroud’s regression: “Another stat they put up there—in his last seven pass attempts, he had thrown three picks … the stats are insane about how bad CJ has been.” [12:10]
- Major takeaway: Betting unders is hazardous with turnover-prone teams and rookie QBs.
3. Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos
Segment Start: [13:07]
- Betting Talk: Simon’s “Simon says” pick was Broncos +1.5; both hosts lament not sticking with the over, which cashed easily.
- Chad focuses on Josh Allen’s limited weapons: “The tools he was working with were Mecole Hardman … barely got any practice time. Brandon Cooks, been on the team a month. I mean if I'm the Bills, I don't care what it costs ... I’m giving up whatever it takes to get the Steelers to let me have Mike Tomlin. Because you just said it, Simon. The coach makes such a difference.” [13:59]
- Simon is adamant: “First step is what you just said, firing Sean McDermott. I mean if you had an owner with a pulse as a Bills, he never would have got off that plane.” [14:52]
- Chad laments Allen’s situation but acknowledges the impact of coaching: “Josh Allen, he’s just ... they’ve been failing him.” [15:36]
- Simon details the emotional rollercoaster—Allen’s comebacks, turnovers, and the absurdity of the NFL playoffs: “He’s terrifying.” [17:49]
- Notable quote on “rigged” NFL theories: “If anyone thinks the NFL is rigged, then the NFL would have made sure that Josh Allen ... would make sure that he gets to the AFC title game instead of Jarrett Stidham.” [18:16]
- Simon: “He is the first quarterback and the first coach in NFL history to have eight playoff wins and zero Super Bowl appearances.” [18:45]
4. Los Angeles Rams vs. Chicago Bears
Segment Start: [22:34]
- Bets: Rams -4.5 (loss), First Half Under (win)
- Chad’s emotional account as a Bears fan: “Did we get Patrick Mahomes? Did we get Michael Jordan? Did we get Josh Allen? ... and then he throws a pick and the Rams kick a field goal and they cover and they break our heart ... Bears don’t go to the NFC title game and we don’t cover.” [03:08]
- Football chaos: “As always with the Bears, pure freaking chaos. Holy tamale, that Caleb. It’s just ... how glorious is Caleb Williams at quarterback?” [23:37]
- Simon applauds Bears’ defense and Caleb Williams’ talent, but notes lack of consistency: “He’s good but he’s got to find consistency somewhere eventually. That was just the type of game where your defense gave you a Super Bowl-worthy game ... and McVay and Stafford, they acted like they'd never seen a corner blitz before.” [23:57]
- Critical moment: Caleb Williams’ improbable 4th-and-4 touchdown pass in OT, only to throw a pick later: “That play, it’s magnificent. It will go up there as one of the greatest 4th and 4 ... greatest playoff plays that we've seen in a generation.” [26:45]
- Simon (on the play’s impact): “It was an incredible play. But come on now. ... If they would have won, I mean, come on, we'd be talking about that play nonstop for six days.” [27:58]
- Chad: “Is it worth it to lose the bet to having seen something like that? Never seen.” [27:34]
5. Betting Results & Reflections
Segment Start: [29:11] & [36:53]
- Chad reviews a string of tough losses: “I do feel like we had three … just fluky bad beats this week with those two totals and the rash of turnovers. And losing that Bears game, which I'm happy to do given the thrill ... to keep playing on that 4th and 4.” [28:42]
- Simon reflects on betting contest strategy: “We should have stuck to our guns of the over. ... That's why this contest is so fun and hard where it's like, I think we would have three plays ... Patriots first half ... Denver first half ... Bears under first half.” [29:11]
- Handicapping “Sharp or Square” picks for next week:
- Denver +1.5 (Simon Says)
- Seattle-San Francisco under 45.5 (Chad’s Choice)
- New England-Houston under 40.5 (Brass Balls)
- Bears/Rams first half under 24 (Rock and a Hard Place)
- Patriots -3.5 (Sharp vs Square: Simon’s pick; won)
6. CJ Stroud & Quarterback Futures
Segment Start: [34:37]
- TR1 in live chat asks about CJ Stroud outlook and the Texans’ future.
- Simon: “Yeah, you got to pick [his option] up. You got to pay him. If Kirk Cousin gets paid millions ... you got to pay C.J. ... he’s looked bad and he’s underperformed, but he’s now won a playoff game every season he’s been a pro.” [35:25]
- “Something’s up with him for sure in these playoffs ... in a meaningless game against the Colts in October, he lights them up. But when he’s playing a legit defense here in the playoffs ... he just can’t play smart.” [36:00]
- Simon’s advice: Keep drafting offensive linemen; “it’s a built-in excuse, of course, but it’s the same thing we say with Justin Herbert, like, give the man time.”
- Both are skeptical Stroud cracks their top 10 QB list next season.
Memorable Quotes
-
Chad Millman (on Bears’ play):
“It will go up there as one of the greatest 4th and 4 ... greatest playoff plays that we've seen in a generation.” [26:45] -
Simon Hunter (on the betting pains):
“That’s the dumbest way to lose money. It’s like an improbable pass. He was deader than dead ... That was not ... that’s just a true God-given ability play.” [27:41] -
On Josh Allen & Coaching:
Chad: “I’m giving up whatever it takes to get the Steelers to let me have Mike Tomlin. Because ... the coach makes such a difference.” [13:59]
Simon: “First step is ... firing Sean McDermott. I mean if you had an owner with a pulse as a Bills, he never would have got off that plane.” [14:52] -
On Bad Beats and Betting Philosophy:
Chad: “I do feel like we had three ... just fluky bad beats this week ... I’m happy to do given the thrill and the opportunity ... on that 4th and 4.” [28:42]
Notable Moments & Timestamps
- Bears/Rams OT Hail Mary: [26:45–27:58]
- Chad calls son from Miami about Bears’ big play: [03:08]
- Simon calls for McDermott’s firing, Allen’s playoff curse: [14:52, 18:45]
- CJ Stroud’s playoff struggles and future outlook: [35:25–36:53]
- Matt Mitchell’s Dostoevsky quote about fan suffering: [20:29]
Episode Tone
Conversational, passionate, and unfiltered; a mix of statistical breakdown, emotional analysis, and gallows humor typical among seasoned bettors. The hosts swing from excitement (Bears’ miracle play, Broncos’ gutsy performance) to frustration (bad beats, coaching mishaps) with camaraderie and a smattering of literary references.
Next Up
The hosts tease deeper analysis of the upcoming AFC title game (Broncos vs. Patriots), further thoughts on Jarrett Stidham as a starting quarterback, and more betting insights coming Tuesday.
Summary prepared for listeners who want expert-level analysis, emotional context, and practical betting takeaways without sitting through the whole show.