Simon Hunter (3:08)

The Big Ten billionaires. That's what we. Everyone keeps talking about, the Big Ten billionaires, Chad. So I bet you don't care. I bet you like it.

Chad Millman (3:14)

I don't care. And you know what else you're seeing? You're seeing what a difference the money makes. And cowherd and I have actually had this conversation before this nil stuff started, but as it was becoming clear that's where it was going, he and I had a long conversation how this will benefit the Big Ten. It will benefit the Big Ten because the big Ten's footprint for alumni is just significantly bigger than anybody else's. And the sec, when the SEC could recruit from the southeast and get tremendous athletes, especially in football, when all of a sudden that recruiting base is bigger. And because the money can be spent by in much more overt ways, the alumni base for the Big Ten is just too big. And the people who are alumni for the Big Ten have made too much money in a variety of industries. This money was going to go back into the system. And you're seeing the Big Ten benefit from that. It's tremendous. Great for the Big Ten. Love it.

Simon Hunter (4:20)

I bet you do.

Chad Millman (4:21)

Again, I have no problem with it. This is the way society works.

Simon Hunter (4:25)

If you're a better. Bringing it back to the betting, I think that might have been the easiest run I've ever had for college basketball. UConn Now, I believe they're 1901 against the spread the last like three or four years in the tournament. Like, it's just. I know pros who, like, think they're smart and they try to fade UConn and every week they're losing. And it just cracks me up where it's like, dude, I don't. You're not that smart.

Chad Millman (4:48)

Covered again last night.

Simon Hunter (4:49)

Yeah, take. Take the money, take the COVID It's. It's incredible. Yukon's done. And like you said, Michigan, hats off to them. Like both. Both games, super dominant Final four. I think, like, Evan Abrams had a crazy stat. They had like the most points ever heading in to the final game since UCLA in like the 80s or 70s. So.

Chad Millman (5:08)

Second most. Second most.

Simon Hunter (5:10)

Yeah. That was really impressive, though. So obviously amazing. UConn hung in there. But as we all know, Michigan won it in. Yeah, I, I wish we had a show because I was like, I want to hear what Duck has to say on this game, but I don't know what you bet, Chad, but I obviously took the seven and a half on Yukon and it was a fun sweat, but luckily it came through.

Chad Millman (5:28)

I thought. Simon, I. I DMed with duck on social media. We're basically a college basketball podcast now because we nailed Tennessee and Iowa. We nailed UConn as our brass balls. We just went on a run. It was, it was really fun to be a part of this tournament. Fun As a UConn fan, fun as a someone who's married to a Michigan fan. It was a blast. But we got to turn the page. Last week we had Derrick Brown, co host of Fantasy Pro's podcast and our brother here at the Volume Podcast Network, come on the show. I thought it was one of the smartest draft analysis shows we've done since the Mac Jones era, when you were all over that. So we've conscripted Derek into being our draft analyst for the next eight episodes, or however many we're doing before the draft. Derek, welcome back, brother.

Derek Brown (6:26)

Oh, guys, thank you for having me back. And I would have hopped in this whole college basketball conversation if, honestly, I could tell you I knew anything about the college basketball landscape these days. I haven't kept up with it since, like, Roy Smith and all kinds of stuff, man. So it's been a minute, so I'll just, I'll, I'll sit back and listen to Chad have a good time here.

Chad Millman (6:48)

Well, listen, you were, you, you lived in Baton Rouge forever. And my, my theory on this and that Coward and I have talked about, and maybe you can agree or disagree, that these southern schools now, the SEC schools, Georgia, Tennessee, Florida, they are, as someone who has a kid who's a freshman in college and just went through the process in the last couple years, they're becoming more and more competitive and they're attracting students from far outside the southeast quadrant of the country. And I do think in the next 10, 20 years, you're going to start seeing people who went there from the northeast. And look, I live in Connecticut. So many kids I know are going to Florida, so many kids of friends of ours going to Florida, Georgia, etc. And Alabama, like, they are going to then move. And the footprint for people who will be donating to these schools and supporting the NL for these schools is just going to be so much bigger that we'll all catch up. But I do think the way that the, the provincial nature of the way schools have long existed is changing and that will change how teams raise money and how teams spend money.

Derek Brown (8:03)

I don't disagree at all. I think you got really deep pockets throughout the sec. And plus, you know, a lot of these warm weather schools, they already have the edge on recruiting in their backyards for football and baseball and long story traditions. So however you want to splice this up, tons of freaking money, warm weather climates, good fertile, like recruiting grounds. I mean, it all kind of stacks up. The SEC is beast and everybody else is just kind of, you know, following suit here.

Chad Millman (8:31)

Except for the big ten, which is fair, fair, fair.

Derek Brown (8:34)

I'll let you have your moment.

Chad Millman (8:35)

Home, home of champions. Hey, you know who's having a moment? One of my favorite cities in the world, the city of Pittsburgh. Beautiful city, resurgent city, hosting the draft. 700,000 people expected to attend the draft. And because of that, the city of Pittsburgh has decided that school will be canceled that day because it will be too much of a nightmare with everybody descending into the city to try to get around. All makes perfect sense to me. I have no issue with it. How do you guys feel about that,

Simon Hunter (9:15)

Simon, of the new school part for the kids? I mean, I'm about it. Obviously the school, I, that's a whole nother conversation. But yeah, to have kids have a experience like that, a day off. You know, I went to the NFL draft in Philly and you could say, well, I'm 20 years older than those kids. I still had an amazing time because it's just as much fun for adults as for kids. If you just love football around football people, it's a great diamond. Yeah. Pittsburgh, obviously, Chad just said it's a beautiful city. Perfect weather obviously lead into that spot. So I'm about it. The football. I know baseball is America's sport, but to me, football, we all know it's, it's America's pastime. And I, I, we're all waiting for it, right the, the day off after the Super Bowl. Once they bring in this 18th game, they push it back to president's weekend. It just makes sense. It's truly a national holiday at this point. So the fact that, you know, the Rockefeller people blew it. They told the NFL they couldn't have the draft because they already scheduled something. And now Goodell, he makes a lot of missteps, but this is one of his best achievements. I think it's another thing that's been part of his last legacy. Is this draft taken to City City because I know professional betters who have gone To Nashville for it. I know guys who have traveled following the draft around every year because it's fun and it's good for sourcing. Like you're around these teams, around these people who are having a good time because they've just worked like maniacs for 12 months now.

Derek Brown (10:42)

They're.

Simon Hunter (10:42)

It's all ending at this draft. So. Yeah, John, with you, I think it's, it's pretty awesome, honestly.

Chad Millman (10:48)

Are you saying loose lips. Loose lips in the last 48 hours before the draft happens. So if you can get on the ground and be around everybody who's ready to let loose, then you're going to get some intel?

Simon Hunter (11:00)

Yeah, no, that's a real, that's a real thing. And it's. You're constantly working these people because everyone is the heightened level where they're trying to get as much info as possible because everyone's worried about losing their guy. That's why you see these teams trade up and take a guy, you're like, why'd they just try to take him? Because it's all information based. It's all being fed information and that's how you build relationships.

Derek Brown (11:20)

Right.

Simon Hunter (11:20)

If you give someone good, relate, get good info, that pays off for them, they will have you in their good graces for a very long time until you burn that bridge, which unless you're an idiot, you wouldn't do. So, yeah, for me, Chad, it's, I, I still don't go as hardcore as I used to in the jack. Like I said, it's not as profitable as it used to be, but am I gonna have guys boots on the ground? Yeah. Am I gonna be working the phones? Yeah, it's. I am looking for an edge, looking for an angle and obviously if I hear anything, I always pass along on the show.

Chad Millman (11:47)

Hey, Derek, in the last week since we spoke, we talked about the markets and they're sort of slowly trickling out. Forget about having to bet markets. I'm going to ask you this in a second, but in the last week, what kind of rumblings have you heard? How much are you getting knocked on by sources to talk about the draft? See what's happening, see what you can share. Like Simon was just saying, a few

Derek Brown (12:17)

knocks at the door and stuff. I think it's kind of still the calm before the storm, so hearing a little bit here and there, you're hearing something. And really this is kind of again, before everything kind of revs up. Like we're just now getting into like, you know, top 30 visits and stuff like that. So not A ton coming my way. But I'm sure the tidal wave is. I mean, it's. I could see it right now right at the horizon.

Chad Millman (12:40)

What do you guys think? Go ahead, Simon. What'd you say?

Simon Hunter (12:44)

Do you want an update on the lines while we gave out? Because it is interesting seeing the movement week to week.

Derek Brown (12:48)

Oh, I saw the movement. Yep.

Simon Hunter (12:50)

What happened?

Chad Millman (12:51)

Tell me, tell me.

Simon Hunter (12:52)

Well, just Derek gave it a great pick about the offensive lineman in the first round. Right. It was over seven. Seven and a half. That was either could have got a plus number of minus 110. It's now minus 175. That's. That's a heavy movement. Just not absent out of our show. But I think that's just showing people that this offensive line group. More people mock that eighth guy in. That's what you see, right? Daniel Jeremiah puts out a mock that has that eighth offensive lineman in there. Boom. This is going to move. That's why we're telling people to get these bets. Early running back. Like I told you, I don't think there's gonna be a second running back in the first round, but there are two guys fighting for that back end position. Right. And you know, to me, we gave it out of 550, 575 575. To be two running backs taking the first round is now down to four. Plus 475.

Derek Brown (13:39)

Wow.

Simon Hunter (13:40)

Like, you just keep seeing those little movements. Chip it away. That's our whole point of like, yep, talking about these early lines and talking about getting them now because things are going to keep moving. And you know, we talked wide receivers in the first round. There's a bunch of different books moving. I think we talked about it was like plus 180, plus 175, five and a half. Now it's down to plus 150 plus 140. So again, that's not a ton of moving people, but that 30, 40 cents when you're betting mass amounts, that's big money. So that's what we're talking about.

Derek Brown (14:08)

Like, still moving in the right direction, baby.

Simon Hunter (14:10)

I mean, like, oh, it's so early to be listening. Talking draft or betting draft. This is it. You're in it. You want to start taking positions now. Just either be hedging or you don't need to do anything. That's the best part. Like, the day comes, you're already in amazing position. So, yeah, props to Derek for now. That offensive line move, that was by far the biggest movement on the first day. Yeah.

Derek Brown (14:30)

And also just to throw this out there, we were talking, I was talking about the volatility and Reuben Bain at 1400. He's down to 1000 1200. And David Bailey's had some movement too, because the steam's kind of coming in on him over the last few days with a lot of mocks and people talking about, you know, if they don't go arvo Reese, then it's going to be Bailey. So again, you know, we're seeing movement in the markets. It's just more condensed and, you know, again, chipping away at it.

Podcast Host (Ad Voice) (14:56)

At vrbo, we understand that even the best of plans sometimes need a little support. So we plan for the plot twists. Every booking is automatically backed by our VRBO care guarantee, giving you confidence from the very start. Whenever you need help, it's ready before your stay, through the moments in between and after your trip. Because a great trip starts with peace of mind and maybe a good playlist. But we've got the peace of mind part covered on the Serving Pancakes podcast. Conversations about volleyball go beyond the court. Today we have a little best friend compatibility test. Okay, how long have we been best friends for? Since the day we met. As the League1 volleyball season heads towards its final stretch, there's no better time to tune in. We really are like yin and yang, vodka and tequila. You'll hear unfiltered analysis, behind the scenes stories and conversations with leaders making an impact across the sport. Today we have Logan Lednecki. I feel like our fan base in general is very connected.

Derek Brown (15:52)

Just like a comforting feeling getting to play at home.

Podcast Host (Ad Voice) (15:55)

Whether you're following the final push of love season or just love the game, Serving Pancakes brings you closer to the action and the people shaping the future of volleyball. Jordan Thompson had that microphone. Oh, God forbid we make mistakes or cuss at our coach.

Derek Brown (16:09)

Like when talking.

Podcast Host (Ad Voice) (16:11)

Open your free iHeartradio app search serving Pancakes and listen. Now. This has been Serving Pancakes and we'll catch you on the flip side. Okay. Presented by Capital One, founding partner of iHeart Women's Sports.

Chad Millman (16:24)

Did you guys watch the coverage of Fernando Mendoza's pro day at all last week?

Derek Brown (16:30)

A little.

Chad Millman (16:31)

So a lot was made about Fernando Mendoza calling out the names of his receivers and the routes that they were running during his pro day. And people were flipping out about it. And I can't ever tell from your perspective. Derek, I want to start with you. Is stuff like that just being fetishized and is it silly or does it matter? Is it similar to Ruben Baines arm length? Like, what Is the value of something like that in terms of translating what that means for someone as a professional? None.

Derek Brown (17:08)

They just think it's, it's useless. Like I think it's right now we're in the, like I said, the calm before the storm and then we get to the pro days and it's like the QB one, the 101 pick and stuff. Stuff like. And, and I said I barely looked at his pro day stuff because I, I just don't care about a lot of the pro day stuff. Like the throwing sessions. I don't care. The film tells all. I don't care if the guy runs in 17 circles and then chucks it up. You know, Will Levis style, Zach Wilson style doesn't matter to me. I think there's certain things to take away from pro days. When we see guys that come back from injuries, like Jermond McCoy coming out and running like a 4, 3, 40 guys where we've had speed questions whether they test or they don't test. I take more of that away from the pro days that we're getting that type of intel and what that can do for players. Draft stock. Like if we're talking about, you know, betting certain markets, if a guy goes top five, top 10, you know, like somebody like McCoy where, you know, he was probably more on the, the middle of the first round kind of, kind of deal, could he sneak into the top 10? I'm not projecting that. But if we continue to see kind of like slight buzz on him, could that happen? It's possible because I think there's a clear delineation of like the top two corners in this draft. So things like that were whether I'm applying it to betting or proof of concept, stuff like that. That's what I take away from pro days, all the throwing sessions and stuff like that. I'll leave that to the social media, you know, aggregation accounts for that kind

Chad Millman (18:39)

of stuff, I guess. Yeah. Like Simon, why do these things matter? Aren't you just, you're playing catch, something you've done a thousand times with these receivers. Like it just doesn't make any sense to me that people put any merit into a pro day.

Simon Hunter (18:58)

Yeah, I would say for someone like me it's a big deal. Chad, I know it sounds corny but like I love it. I like the quarterback. I study quarterbacks non stop. That's my position. I really hyper focus on because I just think there's huge edges in betting when you can really get good reads and quarterbacks. And I tell everyone if you're an amateur. Better. And you're trying to get better at it. Learn the quarterback position, learn about footwork. Right. Learn about quarterback arm angles. All that stuff does matter. Learning to watch tape on quarterbacks, you might think it's a waste of time. It doesn't. It's all an added tool to your tool, your tool chest. And what I'm looking for is exactly what he showed me, right? Like, apparently he's been working more under center. He's been learning the Raiders playbook even before he's drafted by them. Like, I know it doesn't sound like that matters people, but like, to me that's a huge deal because he is limited. There are things Fernando Mendoza is not good at. And you know, in the right draft class with other quarterbacks, he would not be the number one. But what he needs to be a 10 at is going above and beyond, working harder than everyone else. Being that hardcore team leader guy where. Yeah, on tv, they're like, well, Fernanda's been here two hours before, just getting ready, working out. Yeah, is that corny? Does that really matter? No, that's what we want to see from a guy like Fernando Mendoza. Like, you need him to be that guy that goes way above and beyond. So, yeah, for me, I watched it just to see how he's a progressing because like I said, there's a lot of things I like about his game. There's a lot of stuff I'm like, this guy has bust written all over him.

Chad Millman (20:29)

So really hilarious.

Simon Hunter (20:32)

He is doing more under center and you know, they went out and they spent whatever it was, over 100 million a fellow on a center just to get him more comfortable with that. The Raiders, that to me, is all going to matter for Mendoza going forward. So, yeah, I'm, I just, I feel like the Raiders can't mess this up, right? They have the perfect personality. This guy, he's not a wet blanket. He's got personality to him, but he's not going out on Friday again. Drinks in Vegas and there are half the quarterbacks in the league that would be going out, maybe hitting that blackjack table in the private room. And to me, Mendoza, everyone I talk to, behind the scenes, everything, it's like, no, no skeletons in the closet. This is legit. Who he is. Good dude. You would want to get a beer with him. Team leader, like, no doubt about it. So, yeah, everything I've seen this offseason, it just, I, I keep loving the kid even more. So I, I can't believe the Raiders had this fall in their laps and the jets won a meaningless game and missed out on this guy because he would have been perfect for the jets as well. Like I said, he could be a bust, but I, I feel like his upside's so high, any team would have been so lucky to get it from Mana Mendoza. So like I said, I'm a crazy person. But I love watching all this QB stuff.

Derek Brown (21:38)

I'm glad he's not going to the jets, they would have screwed it up.

Chad Millman (21:40)

But what's interesting, and I think Derek disagrees here, you just said you think he could just easily be a bus and I don't think Derek agrees with that at all.

Derek Brown (21:48)

I, I, we, we will agree to disagree on that. I, I think he's a really clean eval. Talking about bus players get, you know, Ty Simpson all day, I think that's, that's the clear bus to me. But Mendoza, I just thought he was a clear eval. Like is he the most like naturally gifted throw of the football where you're getting all the highlight reel stuff of like Patrick Mahomes and Caleb Williams? No, but I think there's something to be said that we've honestly like our view of quarterback play and what's important has kind of been tainted a little bit by people chasing the highlight reel stuff and chasing the out of structure stuff and chasing the ESPN moments like is that cool? And if you can live in that world of five to seven plays a game, can it make a difference? Sure. I think there's also something to be said for running the freaking offense, man, like throwing a ball accurately, keeping the offense on schedule, doing the things you're supposed to and doing them at a really consistent high level. Like it's boring. But I, I really appreciate that from quarterback classes because we've seen guys come out to the NFL and struggle with that. Like you know, Caleb Williams, like everybody pushed back when I wasn't as high on him versus consensus and then he goes out and has kind of a subpar rookie season. I think honestly like per drop back metrics, like still struggling, it's glossed over by the Ben Johnson effect and a lot of the things with Chicago, but I still don't look at him as being an accurate passer. So you know, maybe this, you know, some of this just comes down to like quarterback evals and how we attack the position and stuff. But I, I like Mendoza a lot.

Chad Millman (23:28)

It's so interesting. Simon, what makes you think he would

Simon Hunter (23:33)

be a bust expectations? Like to me he could be closer to Derek Carr than he is to a Tom Brady type. Like, that's. That's a thing where it's like, do I think he can be good? Yeah, I think he has potential. But like to think he'll be like Andrew Luck, right, Going to the AFC championship in his second or third year or like Joe Burrow. I just feel like expectations are already too high on this kid. Where my word for Mendoza is, did he plateau? Have we seen? Because he just had the best coaching you could possibly have. And he did live up to it. Like I said, like, those sideline throws, the fades, all of it. That's why I love Mendoza. I think he has a ton of potential. The question is, can you keep building on that? Because I'm always looking for the raw talent. Like, that's why I love Kayla Williams. Caleb Williams had so much raw talent. He just needed coaching. Like, he never had the coach that can mold that into him. And we've talked about like the coach, Ben Johnson's beating him down. He is beating him down mentally, all of it. That's what he needed. I. I'm interested when Mendoza is going to need. Because he just. He just went from the best coaching you can have. And that coach got every drop of ounce of talent out of Mendoza and he put on the 20 pounds of muscle. Like, what is there more for him to build on that he built on last year and improved so much. So like I said, I think he can work out. Like, I think mentally all these, all that stuff is there. It's just, can the league figure him out and can he adjust to it? Because that's the hardest part. Like, once you have your best season, the league adjusts. I mean, we talk all the time. Mahomes, the goat, he'll never get back to 50 touchdowns again, right? The league adjusted so hard, that offensive scheme is gone. Like, you cannot be pushing the ball downfield like that anymore. It's just the league has changed so much. So, you know, for me, expectations, Mendoza and the heart, one of the hardest divisions in football, right? Like Mahomes, Bo Nix and Justin Herbert, if he can make them a playoff contender over the next 10 years and maybe win one or two playoff games, maybe make it to an AFC championship game, that to me would be successful. To others, Chad, that's a bust. Like the. That's what I'm saying. The expectations on Mendoza right now are so high because like you said, that might have been the best college football seasons we've ever seen. It's the same thing with Joe Burrow. Like, Joe Burrow no one thinks he's the bust. We'll see if he missed the playoffs again for another three, four years, that conversation is going to start happening. So that's the NFL. It's just the expectations are insane. And I am again, I, I know it's tough because you guys both like me. Those, I like them too. I'm just putting out there right now. There's little things I see from him, like, my God, this came out a plateaued and I don't know how much more there's gonna be built off. That's why I'm excited to see what he does in the next level. Like, it's, it's. It's all there. It's just. Can you keep improving?

Derek Brown (26:18)

Not, not to push back, but to add on to that. Simon, what I would say was go to splice his. His tape, his film of 2025 season, cut it in half, go watch the beginning of it and watch the stretch run stuff. Because when I first walked into his tape eval, I was like, okay, there's a lot of like, RPO space, easy completions, like, where is the. The NFL caliber throws into tight windows and you're doing stuff. And the aggressiveness and the playmaking ability, you see that more. Or at least I saw it personally more towards the back half of the 2025 season when competition, the lights got brighter, things like that. I mean, just go to, you know, the national championship game and stuff, to where you see more grit and playmaking and the willingness to kind of stomp the gas pedal a little bit more. That, that's what gave me a little more not hope, but like, optimism that, that Mendoza still got a. Like another level that we can still get to and explore and another, like, fast other facets of his game that I think he can still grow.

Simon Hunter (27:23)

You just said it though. You said he's. He was an RPO merchant. So that's the fear.

Derek Brown (27:27)

It's like, that's a lot of quarterbacks and in college, though, I mean that,

Simon Hunter (27:30)

you know, and then they get to NFL and it's, it's not. It's gone. Like, you just can't run in the NFL. The linebackers are too long, too fast, and so are the corners. They just know those plays. So that's why I can't wait to see what he becomes. Because it's like, like you said, those fade routes, he did keep getting better and better. It's just. Yeah, like any quarterback, we have questions. The fact that he's going to an organization that their last good Quarterback. I mean their car was good, but I'm talking like Kerry Collins, like 2000. I mean it's been a long time since the Raiders pre leg snap.

Derek Brown (28:00)

Derek Carr was pretty good. He was never the same guy after he got the injury though. Like I still have memories of MVP conversation car, but that's a long time ago.

Chad Millman (28:09)

What's interesting about Mendoza is the number of games in which outside of the coaching, the play is called, you still have to deliver. I'm thinking about Penn State, I'm thinking about Oregon, I'm thinking about against Miami in the national title game where he made the play that had to be made. If you've gotten that kind of coaching, that's something that carries over. You're not going to lose that instinct, that lesson, that learning and, and the ability to make that play. If it's the right play call, you can deliver on that play call because that's something that is now part of who he is as a quarterback, as a fan and as someone who watched every single Indiana football snap. I agree with what Derek just said. He got better. Like when they started talking about Fernando Mendoza as the Heisman Trophy contender, I was like, what the guy? Like they're winning but they're not winning because of him. And then as the season went on, he got better and better and all of a sudden they were winning because of him at the exact right times. And maybe he's just got that next level instinct about winning and competing that can't be coached.

Simon Hunter (29:20)

He didn't have the numbers like you just said. It was the moments is what he had.

Chad Millman (29:23)

So I, I agree. He totally.

Simon Hunter (29:24)

It was the moment, completely the numbers. But yeah, like we're talking about here, it's. I'm nitpicking. I'm just getting out the people, the pretense of. Yes. Is the Daniel Orlowski go overboard saying that Tyson was better than him. Yes. But are there GMs out there or scouts that have major questions about Fernando Mendoza? Yes. And I know teams that, they wouldn't be taking them in the top five. Right. They would kick the can down the road for next year's draft class. And there's nothing wrong with that. Right. These, these teams who all think they're geniuses, they're idiots. There's plenty of teams that passed on Mahomes, that passed on Josh Allen because they didn't trust that build. But yeah, like I, I keep talking about Fernande Mendoza. I'm excited to see him the next level. I just, I'm just Worried that he, like Chad just said he had special moments and everything like that. Is he J.J. mcCarthy? That would be the fear. It's like, was he a really good quarterback on a really good stacked team who did make the plays when he had to and won a national title, but was it all smoke, mirrors and that's the fear. Like, do I think Mendoza is better than JJ? Of course he's throwing it 10 times the amount of times JJ threw it in college. But I just. The winning stuff unfortunately doesn't really translate to NFL. Like, it just. It's great. I care about it. It's part of the. It's part of what I like Mendoza, but I'm not going to get bogged down in it.

Chad Millman (30:43)

I still get the Fernando Mendoza touchdown run against Miami and my social feeds at least once a day with a different song and a different, different slow motion paces and it's, it just, it makes me so happy.

Derek Brown (30:59)

Do you have them all bookmarked, like in the. So instead of like a jolt of caffeine in the afternoon, Chad, you just turn on the highlight reel.

Chad Millman (31:05)

I just go pick me up. Seriously. It's like watching old like West Wings or Breaking Bads. Like, I'll just turn on a clip and it makes me so freaking happy. I cannot, I cannot tell you.

Simon Hunter (31:19)

You know, he's never even watched that ever again. He just burned the tape. Soon as that season ended, he was on to 20, 26. That's why I love your coach.

Chad Millman (31:27)

Signetti's out there. He's doing like savage. He is so good. He's doing press conferences right now where he's now going after the old coach at TCU for making snide remarks about IU's new quarterback, who was at TCU but threw a lot of picks. And the. Signetti was like, well, you know, didn't. He didn't have a defense and he didn't have a running game. So you throw less picks when you got those two things. Like, he just. He is awesome. He is unafraid. Let's do a quick word from our friends at Hard Rock bet. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock bet. Florida's sportsbook. Spring is in the air, and that can only mean one thing. Baseball is back in full swing. Hard Rock BET makes it easy to bet on America's pastime in just a few easy taps. And it's not just picking winners. Bet on home runs, strikeouts, and so much more. And if you missed the first pitch, no problem. You can live bet every inning, every at all, the way to the final out. But maybe you're more into the NBA. The hardwood is heating up as the playoff push is on. And with Hard Rock Bet, every night is a shot to build a same game parlay and score a major bucket. However you draw it up, Hard Rock Bet gives you tons of ways to stack your picks into an epic same game parlay. Sign up today and double your winnings on your first 10 bets. Maximum $50. That's right, double your winnings on your first 10 bets. So if you would have won a hundred bucks on your bet, now it's 200. Download the hard Rock Bet app today and get the party started. Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida. Offered by Seminole hard Rock Digital LLC and all other states must be 21 or over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play, terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida, call 1-833-playwise in Indiana, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1809 with it. In Ohio, call 1-800-My reset gambling problem, call 1-800- Gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Tennessee, Tennessee and Virginia.

Podcast Host (Ad Voice) (33:44)

With Vrbo's last minute deals, you can save over $50 on your spring getaway. So whether it's a Mountain Escape City break or a week at the beach, there's still time to get great discounts. Book your next day Now. Average savings $72. Select homes only on the Serving Pancakes podcast, conversations about volleyball go beyond the court. Today we have a little best friend compatibility test. Okay, and how long have we been best friends for? Since the day we met. As the League 1 volleyball season heads towards its final stretch, there's no better time to tune in. We really are Lik and Yang. Vodka and tequila. You'll hear unfiltered analysis, behind the scenes stories and conversations with leaders making an impact across the sport. Today we have Logan Lednecki. I feel like our fan base in general is very connected.

Derek Brown (34:28)

Just like a comforting feeling getting to play at home.

Podcast Host (Ad Voice) (34:30)

Whether you're following the final push of Love Season or just love the game, serving Pancakes brings you closer to the action and the people shaping the future of volleyball. Jordan Thompson had that microphone. Oh, God forbid we make mistakes or cuss at our coach like one time or two times. Open your free iHeartRadio app. Search serving Pancakes and listen. Now this has been Serving Pancakes and we'll catch you on the flip side. Okay. Presented by Capital One founding partner of iHeart Women's Sports.

Chad Millman (35:00)

I think it's really important. As we get closer to the draft, talk a little bit about strategy. And Simon, you just mentioned it at the top of the show. It's really important to be thinking about long shots, bigger prices, because it helps you build a profitable draft portfolio. Derek, when you're putting together your bets and thinking about how you want to position yourself for draft night, what is the makeup of your overall portfolio in terms of, like, you think it's going to happen to. I need to have more long shots in here.

Derek Brown (35:38)

I think it's a varied buffet. Like, I want a good mix of a lot of different angles. So, you know, you don't want to go just chasing outliers. And your entire portfolio looks like plus 1000 bets. And then you're like, you. You know, we turn over the cards after 32 picks and you're like, good Lord, I went one for 15. Oh, like, you don't want that to happen. So I think it's everything from, are we getting good prices and ahead of the market on some guys and taking some leverage bets because of the volatility? And are you mixing in the plus 1000s, the plus 1400s, and even, you know, plus 500s versus also taking some plus 100 and 200 bets where you're either getting some of the, you know, like we already talked about from last week's show, like, plus 185 is now down. Plus, like, plus 100 is now, like, steamed up, and now it's minus 150, you know. So I think it's building a varied portfolio of you have the. The long shot plus 1000s and what have you and stuff. If they hit, they can make your night go from good to great or they can make an okay night just turning profitable. So I think it's really mixing and matching a lot of different angles and looks.

Chad Millman (36:52)

Simon?

Simon Hunter (36:54)

Yeah, to me, the biggest thing for just the general public out there is just fine. Mock draft guys you can trust. Like, am I here to kill Mel Kuiper? No. But if you're still trusting Mel Kuiper, a man who's been this business a long time and, you know, sure, he might know the.

Chad Millman (37:11)

No.

Simon Hunter (37:11)

But is he hungry? I don't think he's that hungry. I want a hungry dog like Todd McShay. Last year, he started a new company that was a hungry dog. Last year, that man was putting in work, and he did pretty, pretty damn good on his mock draft. Daniel. Daniel Jeremiah does pretty well in his mock drafts. Joe Clatt, you know, he's not an NFL guy, but he knows college football. He knows these guys in and out. That's another guy that, you know, Coward has on his show. Listen to him, hear what he's hearing, hear what he says about these players. And that, to me, is a big thing where the public. There's so much good information out there now. You want to find the right guys you can trust to give you that. That information. You want to build positions off that stuff. So, you know, to me, I'm. I'm trying my best to give people good information. I'll never be as plugged in as Daniel Jeremiah. Like this, man. You know, I don't know if he's still working for the NFL Network or now. He's. Whether you spend. Whatever it is, he's the big dog. He gets really good info, and he is playing a game, but he'll leave you guys breadcrumbs. Like, you see him consistently talking about a player and a team. That's a breadcrumb. Like, that is someone putting out signals there. So it's a lot of legwork. People, if you would. Like I said, the draft is hard, but you should be listening to all these people's podcasts. You should be checking out if they're writing anything. You know, if Brer is writing anything for Si, It's. It's all there. These guys are all plugged in, trying to give you information. And, you know, sometimes you do need to trust your gut. And if I come on here and I'm like, hey, this guy's saying this stuff because he's working with this guy's agent and it's smoke screen. I wouldn't be listening that I'd fade it. We can make money that way, too. So that's the thing. It's like I'm. I'm working at all. I'm working with. The public's working with it. I'm trying to work stuff behind the closed doors. And like I said, people, you really need to be really hive mind here. You need to be all in on information right now and take it all in at once, because everything matters. Every little thing really does matter right now. And it's. It's tons of breadcrumbs. You got to really figure out what's what.

Derek Brown (39:01)

Derek, coming to your point real fast. Sorry, Chad. I wanted to add this, too, because I thought you brought up something extremely valuable there. If we're looking at the breadcrumbs, for me, it's fine, the mock drafts, but I think Everybody's going to go to the mock drafts too. It's the top 50 boards, man, that when you see big movement on players, like where they bump up 10, 15 spots, some of that can be some agent steam and stuff. Some of that is also following substance and what guys are hearing. So right now, if it's not the mock drafts that everybody's reading, check out the top 50 boards. And when you're making these lines of demarcation of the top 32 guys that have jumped up massively, whether it's because you'll see movement, you'll see big movement, and sometimes that's. Maybe Jeremiah is hearing stuff around the league or other people are hearing stuff around the league. It's also maybe, you know, I was too low on a guy, but you're trying to siphon off all of this stuff. I think the, the big board movement is something that a lot, not a lot of people look at, and they should.

Chad Millman (39:59)

When you're looking at all of this stuff, Derek, how much do you, how much do you refer to mock drafts? Are there mock drafts that you believe in more than others?

Derek Brown (40:12)

It just depends. The sources. Like, I, I will say there are some that, like, were I, I pull them up and immediately I'm like, oh, this is, this is crap. Like, I. You're not seeing, like, I'm like, trying to like, follow the logic and thinking. And I'm like, what, like, are we addressing needs? Are we getting a year ahead of needs? Is this something that even looks like it's plausible? Where I'. Okay, never mind. Moving on. So it. I, I'd say I kind of use them as casting a wide net and kind of look at like, where you're seeing commonalities between a bunch of different ones, then saying, okay, read this one guy or two guys, because I think there's, you know, there's a lot of smoke and mirrors with all of them.

Chad Millman (40:56)

That's interesting. All right, I feel like. And listen, we're guilty of this too. It's the NFL draft and it's the NFL. So everybody wants to talk about it as much as possible, dissect it as much as possible. Barnwell, our friend of the show, Bill Barnwell, just had a story come out on ESPN.com 32 different first round trade scenarios, one for every pick. Obviously that's not something that's actionable, but it does make us think about what makes the draft so unique and sometimes infuriating as a betting event. Because one or two trades can change everything, right? If, if someone trades out of the back of the first round and they trade to a team that needs a running back all of a sudden. Simon, there's two running backs in the first round, right? Knowing that trades can happen, is that make long shots a smarter approach? Is it one read one reason to avoid paying huge juice on anything. Like, we know there are no sure things when it comes to the draft. So how do you account for trades? Derek?

Derek Brown (42:04)

You start, I think looking at the trade market and the volatility. It's like, what do you think in your mind's eye or what are you hearing? Teams that are candidates to trade down. And I think like every draft class is also its own organism of. Especially speaking to this draft class where we're all like, okay, because you have. It takes two to tango. Not only does the team, if they want to trade down, you need a team that needs to come up. And so it's like, who are they clamming for, clamoring for, who are they coming up for? Are we going to see a lot of trades happen in particular classes? And some of that depends on, you know, the, the class itself. So it's kind of like you're looking. Just look at the top of the board of this one. It's like Arizona is a team that we're, we're all like, you know, a lot of people. The chalk pick is tackle. What if they don't go tackle? What if they trade back? A lot of these things are in play, but it's like if that happens, what team is. Who are they coming up for? So you're looking at the draft class. It's like, are there? And I like this class maybe a little bit more than most, but even I'm playing the game in my head of like, if a team's coming up, who are they coming up for and is that even a plausible situation? So I think there's definitely the way that I kind of attack the trades is playing the leverage and some of the long shot stuff of certain markets. And specifically the way that I look at it, like some of the, if you're looking at a lot of these teams right now and the teams that stick out to me of trade back candidates are the ones that like the commanders and other ones that like they have like their first round pick, but they don't have any, like a second round pick, they don't maybe pick into the third or the fourth round. So they look like the most logical trade back. But if they trade back, who's going in that slot and how do you attack that so some of these teams, it's like if they trade back and I'll bring up one specifically, like the Buffalo Bills, like could they trade out of their first round pick? Like, could they go wide receiver? How are you attacking that right now? Looking at the markets right now you like, I like looking at can they draft the wide receiver? Looking at that, it's plus 475. Just look staring at the board right now. And again, reading all the tea leaves, could they trade back? And they've had two wide receivers out of their tops out of their seven top 30 visits right now. Two of those have been wide receivers, been Chris Bell and Casey Concepcion. And looking at both of those players, okay, well, the Bills, I mean after their first round pick at 26, they don't have another freaking pick until 91. So they're coming in, they're bringing these wide receivers in to talk to them. Okay, well they're not getting them in the third round. So if you want to attack that and say, okay, maybe they stick and pick at one, maybe they trade back, but if they're feeling a need, whether it's those two wide receivers they've already had a visit with and in the range that they go back into the first top into the second, if I'm looking at the board right now, which right now the favorites are, they go with a defensive end, a cornerback, O line, that's the top three on the board. Wide receiver is almost. I mean it's +475, +500 and some books if they trade out of that. But they still take a wide receiver. So it's really, it's building all of this stuff and taking all the information and siphoning it together. When you're kind of looking at possible trade scenarios and how to attack the market, whether it's first position picked, players going in the top five to top 10, what the board looks like because most of it's steamed and how you're kind of putting all that together.

Chad Millman (45:31)

Simon, where I think you said, you know, three weeks out from the draft, maybe a little less. Have you seen since we spoke last week new markets that you've decided to bet? Anything that has gotten interesting for you?

Simon Hunter (45:50)

No, not really. Honestly, it's. I've taken early positions a little bit. We talked about last week and it's really now it's, you know, what our teams need because like I always talk about, it's if you just think at least half the teams, NFL are dumb and are going to do something stupid on draft day you're usually proven right, like who saw Atlanta trading back into the first round to take a corner, right? It's these teams make these crazy moves. Like I'm still not over the Jaguars. I know the Jaguars got away with it with the Travis Hunter move because they did make the playoffs and they did get the right head coach. But you look back on that, it's like, was that not one of the stupidest trades we've ever seen? Moving up to take Travis Hunter? So that's the thing, these teams fall in love with these players and they do stupid stuff. And this draft, the more scouts I talk to, this isn't like a super deep class, right? But the top is really good. Like there's some really talented high level guys, like guys you want to go get in the top 20. So that's gonna be interesting. What teams are trying to move back up to go get either off it's alignment, a D line or what teams are going to sit back and stick receiver. That's why I do like doing the running back and wide receiver props because it's going to come down to that trade in, right? I, I, my, my biggest burn I've ever had was T. Higgins. I swore T. Higgins was gonna be taken the back of the first round. Like I thought the Chiefs were gonna take him, whoever was going to take them. And no one did. Everyone passed on him. I think he fell to the second or third pick and, or maybe it was the first pick in the second round that cost me a ton of money. But I was proven right in his career. Like T. Higgins was a first round talent. My board wasn't wrong. So that's a tough part too where it's like I'm doing self scouting, I'm going off other people's draft boards. Sometimes you can have the right read but the teams just don't. It doesn't fall into place that way, right? The team that trades back in the first round, they took an offensive tackle. They didn't take that 6 receiver that we needed to win our bet. So that's why, like I always say, you want to get the plus number to hedge against that long term. It's like, sure, I got burned that year. This year I already have a plus 180 bet on over five and a half receivers. Like that's how you ate away at that big, that juice over the years. And it's the same thing this year. Like the more stuff I see, it seems like more teams are desperate for that receiver at the back end of this round. Like there are six, potentially seven first round receivers like that people have talked about. It's really, it's a good receiver class chat. So that's why, you know, like Derek talked about, it's a good position to take. You want to take a position on that number five and a half at a plus number because we're seeing. We don't know who the sixth or seventh receiver might be. And that's, that's exactly what you want. You don't want it just to be one guy dictate if we're going to win our bet. You want there to be maybe two guys that teams can fall in love with and they're fighting for the end of the first round. So like I said, that's really important stuff. You're rebuilding heavy positions in the draft. You really want to know those exact things. You want to know are there seven, eight receivers that people love or is this a weak class? Are there five definite first round receivers and then one maybe guy? Because if there's one maybe guy, I honestly wouldn't make this bet. But the fact that they say there might be two, maybe even three other guys that could sneak into the end of this first round, Chad, that's. That to me is like, how do you not take a position on this bet? It's, it's just, it feels like there's tons of upside there with little downside at a plus number.

Derek Brown (48:55)

Give yourself, man. Gotta give yourself outs.

Chad Millman (48:57)

Eric, before we get out of here, get the last word. Any new markets, anything that popped up that was intriguing to you in the last seven days?

Derek Brown (49:06)

The, the only other thing. And again following breadcrumbs with some of the top 30 visits and talking about bringing this back to teams that have only one pick like or pick in the first round, but then don't pick again until the third round. The commanders are very interesting. So I'm taking a sprinkle because right now with the seventh overall pick, a lot of people are mocking them like defensive players. Whether it's a lot of it's sunny styles, a lot of its edge and a lot of it's because you look at their depth chart, it is bereft of wide receiver talent. There is nothing outside of Terry McLaurin like we're talking about Luke McCaffrey and who knows what, and Chigaconquo catching passes from Jalen Jaden Daniels this year. So I, I've taken a sniff on them taking possibly because if you look a wide receiver or at least like there's a few different ways to look at this. So top 30 visits they've had right now with guys that could go inside that top 10 range. At the seventh overall pick, they've met with Makai Lemon, Mansoor Delane and Carnell Tate. You're getting good numbers on each one of those guys. Like Carnell Tate's plus 400. If he goes inside the top five and stuff like that, he might not even be on the board. So that brings in somebody like a Makai Lemon, who's that plus 1600 right now. So if you want to take a position on that, I'm not saying I'm going out and bet 12 units on it, but like a half a unit.

Chad Millman (50:25)

Fine.

Derek Brown (50:25)

Like at 1600, definitely. And Mansur Delaine, like, again matching up their depth chart. They've added defensive line help. They have been asking their corners to play out. Like, Mike Sanders still is not a perimeter corner, put him back to nickel. They. They still have a need and a lot of what Dan Quinn wants to do, whether it's zone coverage, man coverage stuff. Marshawn Lattimore was cooked. He couldn't do that. Mansur Delane go at. To go at pick seven is plus 500. So whether you wanted to spray the board with this, you wanted to take a position, whether it's CARNELL Tate at plus 400 at pick seven, Delaney at plus 500, or you want to go with the long shot of Makai Limited plus 1600. Because again, a lot of what I'm hearing out there is Carnell Tate could go higher than what people expected. I push back on that a little bit because I'm like, dude, he's always been a top 10 pick. We talking about top 10 or now top five? I mean, you can make a case for the Giants, you can make a case for the Tennessee Titans to take him at 4 or 5. If that's the case, he's off the board. And then if Makai Lemon is sitting there and he's at the top of the board and we've already seen Adam Peterson company value the type of skill set of somebody that can play the underneath, get yak yards with them. Bringing in Debo. Unfortunately, Deebo is not Debo of prime part of his career at this point. So there's a lot of proof of concept as well as reading some of the tea leaves of taking positions on a number of guys at pick seven.

Chad Millman (51:48)

Derrick Brown bringing it. You are this podcast's number one overall draft pick for draft covered fantasy pros podcast. Our friends at the volume. Listen. Thanks for coming on, brother. You're going to come on again. This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume Podcast Network. Watch or listen on YouTube @Sharpersquare. Like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods Rate. Review. Subscribe. Leave us. Five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.

Derek Brown (52:25)

In yesterday's draft, everybody's sizing up the winners and the losers.

Chad Millman (52:30)

The winner yesterday was honesty.

Derek Brown (52:36)

Liberty Mutual customizes your car and home insurance. And now we're customizing this rush hour ad to keep you calm, which could help your driving. And science says therapy is great for a healthy mindset. So enjoy this 14 second session on us. I think you've done everything right and absolutely nothing wrong. In fact, anything that hasn't gone your

Simon Hunter (52:54)

way could probably be blamed on your father not being emotionally available because his

Derek Brown (52:57)

father wasn't emotionally available, and so on. And now that you're calm and healing, you're probably driving better, too.

Podcast Host (Ad Voice) (53:06)

This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.