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- [00:00]
Chad Millman
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:02]
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- [00:37]
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- [01:07]
Daniel Cormier
This is Daniel Cormier from the Daniel Cormier Show. This podcast is sponsored by Total Wireless, the official wireless partner of ufc. Power doesn't wait in the octagon or outside of it. You either make the move or you miss the moment. That's why you need a network that's just as powerful as you are. With Total Wireless you get unlimited 5G data keeping you in the action from the walkouts to the knockouts. Now that's a total power move. Make your total power move today. Visit totalwireless.com or stop by your neighborhood Total Wireless Store. Additional terms apply. See totalwireless.com for details.
- [01:43]
Public Investing Announcer
Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public, you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index. With AI it all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year. You can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public
- [02:30]
Public Investing Disclosures
Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors llc. SEC Registered Advisor. Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice.
- [02:41]
Public Investing Announcer
Complete disclosures available at public.com disclosures welcome
- [02:45]
Chad Millman
to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock Bet. We are part of the Voluum podcast network. This is the betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined by my co host, my bff, my companion, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter. And we're not even waiting to bring him in. Our draft expert from the Fantasy Pros football podcast. Also on the volume, our good buddy Derek Brown. My man. Also, hello. So I'm in.
- [03:25]
Chad, how we doing foreign?
- [03:28]
I'm pretty good, man. How are you?
- [03:30]
Good. Had a. Had a busy weekend.
- [03:33]
And you went to Coachella. Tell me all about it.
- [03:35]
Well, I think I'd have to say that for another show. I would say the hype of it's a lot of money and a waste of money to a lot of people. Totally agree with. For someone like me that wants to see, you know, Justin Bieber and Moby in the same day, you can't beat it. It's. It's a bizarre festival and you can see any, any act you want to see. And yeah, I had a good time and literally flew home and then went to the Flyers last night and the Flyers won in overtime the clinch a playoff berth for the first time since 2020. So, yeah, I had a hell of a weekend, Chad.
- [04:11]
Dude, I was in, you know, I was in Palm Springs at the end of February and where I stayed, we had a house that we rented. Literally. I did not know this. It was across the street from Coachella, like where that whole Polo Grounds is literally across the street from Coachella. And the idea of now that I can visualize what Coachella is and where it is, the fact that it's in that little area, like in this little town that is this kind of like upscale, random town outside of Palm Springs, and that is where the entire culture of Coachella exists. Derek, I don't know if you've ever been it, been to it, if you know anything about it, but it's fucking wild, man.
- [04:52]
Derek Brown
I've never been to Coachella, never had a chance to get out there. But I'm an old school emo scene kid. A lot of warp tour years and some broken ribs from crowd surfing under my belt. So I never went to Coachella. But I've definitely partaken of the concert scene in the, the tours in the summer.
- [05:09]
Chad Millman
Simon, did you see Billy Corrigan from Smashing Pumpkins? On stage with. With. I forgot he was with when you were there tonight.
- [05:21]
Tonight, my friend. Yeah, I saw it. It was. It was so good.
- [05:24]
He is amazing.
- [05:28]
Yeah, I honestly, there was a couple like random really good ones. I. I'm a big EDM guy. Like, I saw Fat Boy Slim. I never saw him before. He was pretty incredible. I don't remember him from back in the 90s, of course.
- [05:42]
Yeah.
- [05:43]
Derek Brown
Yep. We're old enough. Simon.
- [05:45]
Chad Millman
The funny thing is in the moment, the girl I was with, she was the one that really pushed me to do it. And like, I'm not. The festival days have passed me by. Especially that I slept in a car for two nights. It's worth it. I know it's really expensive and it's become this like, you know, supermodel Instagram type of thing. Yeah, there are some really hot women there. Everyone there is very good looking. I agree with that. But if you just love music, you can see. I saw probably 30 bands I've wanted to see all in a weekend. So it was pretty sweet the way they had it set up there, the festival. And like you said, it's in a desert, so if you don't have any type of rain or wind or anything like that, it's really sweet. Like perfect weather. Yeah. Amazing setup. And yeah. Justin Bieber, I don't know if you heard about it. It was our experience of my entire life. He basically. He doesn't own the rights to any of his music anymore. I think he's catalog. He had to play. He had to play his music through YouTube. It was. It was crazy. People are hating it. Like it was a lazy concert. Again, I'm not a big believer fan. Every girl around me was crying. So you might not like it, but the women who are his fans and I guess the guys, Royce fans, it was heaven to them. And I have to say he's an incredible performer. So, yeah, check it off the list. I never have to see Justin Bieber ever again.
- [07:05]
You slept in your car for two nights?
- [07:08]
Not my car. Her car. Yeah, we just. Basically a car though.
- [07:11]
A car.
- [07:13]
Yeah, if you want to get a
- [07:14]
camera, by the way. Derek, nice, nice catching up. The keep. There wasn't. Whether it was your car or someone else's car.
- [07:19]
Simon Hunter
Did you sleep in a car? Like, what are we talking about? This is like a. A compact. Are you sleeping in a Prius? Are we going SUV here? Back seat.
- [07:27]
Derek Brown
What are we doing here?
- [07:28]
Simon Hunter
No air mattress. I mean, come on, Simon.
- [07:31]
Chad Millman
She had a Tesla. But it, it's basically. If you Want to rent that house that Chad had? It's like 500k for the weekend to have your own little camp with your car parked up, it's another couple grand. If you just want to sleep on in your car and that's parked in the road, it's free. So, yeah, that's what we did it again. I, God bless her. I was the one that was, you know, eating food and letting it rip all night when she was just a normal girl. So their windows are cracked and yeah, again, it's rough. But that's, that's life. Going to these concerts and trying to save a buck because it costs, I'm not even joking. It costs 3k for general admission.
- [08:07]
Simon Hunter
Did you go like full camp out style? You got like the George Foreman plugged in the back and stuff?
- [08:12]
Chad Millman
Yeah, exactly. And like I, I use a bottle of water to shower. It was.
- [08:18]
Oh my God, that is unreal. That's going back to old school. Like when you're 20 years old and you just go for it and you have that memory forever, I, I like, there's no way I could rough it like that anymore. You can do one day.
- [08:35]
You could make it one day, Chad. One day in and out, I think you could do. But yeah, the weekend I said that to her. I think I said, this is my last weekend doing a festival. I can't do three days of this. It was too much.
- [08:45]
Well, look, there's a lot of news going on with the draft. Specifically, the big news is Reuben Bain and what has come out about his traffic accident in which somebody was killed. And conveniently, coincidentally or not, this news is now coming out now. And look, it has the for draft, old heads like me. It has the sort of same markings and trajectory as Warren Sapp, right? Where Warren Sapp, when he came out in the draft, he was considered a top five pick, a Hall of Fame caliber talent, defensive interior defensive lineman from the University of Miami. And there were rumors, this is how times were back then, that he was smoking weed. And so he dropped from like top five, I think, to 12th or something like that. Went to Tampa, hall of Fame career. Now these things are coming out about Ruben Bane right before the draft. Derek, we have been talking about him potentially being top four, maybe going to the jets, even. This, this whole thing is fishy to me. Like, if you want to talk about conspiracies, this whole thing has conspiracy written all over it to me. And I can't figure out who wins by having something like this leak from an NFL point of view.
- [10:09]
Derek Brown
Yeah, I mean you could bring up the SAP stuff, you could bring up previous years of Larry Tunsil, you can go to even more previous of very similar situation. And you know, again, not making light of like the horrificness of some of these, you know, stories and stuff like that. But also Jalen Carter of previous years, like numerous stories that all of a sudden just leak out like around the NFL draft. And the other thing about it that that's going, has been reported but going underreported as well is this was news to NFL GMs and stuff like going back into December and January. A lot of other people have already reported that they had this news in their hands behind closed doors, like around the Senior bowl and stuff. So now that it's like breaking national news and then you got certain outlets and institutions like continuing to just keep it in the news cycle, it's like it came out and then they're still doing pieces on it and it's like, okay, like we know the details, we, it's pretty easy to see what you're, what you're doing here. Like, okay, fine, you want to report on it, then report on it and then move on and stuff. But I, I do think that there's a certain stink of this coming out right now and how this, you know, impacts his first round draft status. I still think he goes in the first round and you know, add this, it kind of builds the totality of things. It's like short arms and the all field stuff and the things coming out and maybe that slides him from being a top five pick to a top 12 pick. I still think he goes at least somewhere in the middle of the first round, like at his floor. If this truly does impact him, I
- [11:41]
Chad Millman
don't think it impacts him at all.
- [11:45]
Derek Brown
I, I agree.
- [11:46]
Chad Millman
And if I'm an NFL team, I, I, and I, and I'm drafting later, you can hope. But I like if I need a guy like that and I'm a huge Reuben Bain fan, I thought I saw what he did to Indiana. I watched Miami games this year. He was a force. I mean he completely changed games on his own. And I think that there is a lot to be said when you are drafting players for what they've put on tape beyond anything else, that should be what we're drafting him on. And everything else is kind of bullshit. Right. And so the fact that he was as dominant as he was, I would still want to grab him and I would see this for what it is, which feels like somebody drafting 10 to 15, leaking this and Hoping that they will be able to get him. Now, I would not be put off by this in any way, especially since he played an entire year, played great. I have no idea what the story is behind the scenes. It doesn't really matter. Not afraid of taking this guy with a premium pick.
- [12:51]
Simon Hunter
The other thing about it behind the
- [12:52]
Derek Brown
scenes is none of us are in the rooms with teams talking to him and getting a true sense of his character. And that's the one thing that like, you know, we talk about prospects, where they could go and stuff, but none of us are in those rooms. We might get information after the fact, but this might be something that impacts him to certain teams because they just don't want the headache of anything off field or bump him down. But a lot of teams, once they meet with him and stuff and they get a sense of who he is, his character, how he carries himself on the field and off the field, it's, it's. I'm not going to say it's a nothing burger, but a lot of teams are going to not disqualify him because of any of this.
- [13:27]
Chad Millman
Simon?
- [13:29]
Yeah, it's. It's tough. It is really tough because it's all about what he is like in the immediate process. Right. How he does there. And you know what we heard from Carter, the reason he dropped was some teams felt like he wasn't mature. Right. They interviewed him, were like, I just don't like how this kid has handled this at all. It might be a totally different scenario at this time. So Chad said it like, we know the talent level. This kid is probably a top four, top three pick down level. Could he drop? Sure. But I, I don't see him being outside the top 10. But this is definitely something that some teams will, will view negative. Obviously I do think some teams where, you know, say it was the Raiders, the number one pick and there was no Fernando Mendoza, I have a hard time is that that team, that organization where they are taking a guy like him? So yeah, I do think for some teams that might matter. But overall, if you have a veteran leadership, especially defensively, I would bring that guy in a heartbeat, especially at a discount. So yeah, at the end of the day it is a business and you might not agree with him morally and he might be a bad person, but he could have matured, he could grow up. We all know that college kids with a lot of money, they're gonna do dumb and make stupid mistakes. It's all about, do you think he can grow out of that person and everything? I'VE seen from him. Seems like he has adjusted and kind of grown from that, that whole experience. So I do give him the benefit of the doubt. But I know some teams, Chad, honestly, behind closed doors, they're like, man, this is. They've obviously known about this for over a year.
- [14:53]
Yeah.
- [14:53]
Still, like, I don't know if they could see him being the number one, number two pick, but still being top five, I still think that's realistic possibility.
- [15:01]
Maybe there's a little bit of value now. Maybe that's better.
- [15:05]
Derek Brown
I was just looking at the odds as we're kind of discussing this. Plus 350, what I'm looking at to be drafted top five. But I think the books are also telling us the odds of him being drafted top 10 are minus 300. So, you know, says what it needs to say.
- [15:19]
Chad Millman
A little drop, maybe a little drop.
- [15:20]
Yeah, I would. I don't know. I would take the plus 350.
- [15:24]
Okay.
- [15:25]
Yeah. You know, why not take. I don't mind it. Go against the grain a little bit. There's another market that came out that the other quarterback that everyone is talking about in this draft, Ty Simpson, Derek said it really well a few weeks ago, kind of drafting the helmet, meaning you're taking the guy who played for Alabama and there are now prices posted for all 32 teams to take him a lot that are 100 to 1. And Arizona and the New York jets are the favorites. Simon, let's start with you. Any long shots here that you think are worth taking a flyer on either what you're hearing, good fit places you think Ty Simpson might. Might be a good shot and it's a good bet to make.
- [16:22]
Probably gonna get burned on it again, but I might like. I might throw a little bit on the Rams to take them. It just feels like a fun bet that could possibly happen. But give props to Derek again. Here it's down to. Let's see the update line. It's the over, under now, one and a half quarterbacks. In the first round, when Derek said not to take it, it was minus 250 to the over 1 1/2. It is now down to minus 130 to the over 1 1/2. Chad. And a lot of people that reached out and asked about why this movement happened. And we can talk about all the lines that have moved. Honestly, I can't believe it. But Peter Schrager moves the market more than anyone else that puts on mock drafts right now. Chad. Which is crazy to think, but Peter Schrager is that locked in and I think enough betters now respect his opinion enough that they do move off what he says he did not have Ty Simpson the first round and that moved the market huge. Like it was. I think our last year, I said it was minus 170 or minus 180. First round over one and a half quarterbacks. Like I said, now it's down to minus 130. He end up putting Price that second running back I told you about. He end up putting him at Seattle at the 32nd pick. Chad. So now what? I gave out a plus 550 over one and a half running backs. It's now down to plus 400. And again, this is all Peter Schrager like. Peter Schrager has totally moved the market. Wide receivers, I believe he had six in the first round. Now that was plus 190. Now down to plus 140. Plus 135 over five and a half receivers. So like we talked last week about following these mock drafts. Peter Schrager put out his first mock. I don't believe he puts out another one until the day before the draft. You got to be on it. Like clearly this man is plugged in and the market is moving with him. So yeah, Derek with a Ty Simpson call saying he doesn't believe he's a first rounder. Like I said, I agree with him. I think he's a second rounder. I did not think the market would move the way it's moved with him. So I am tempted now. Chad. It's moved so much over one and a half. I'm tempted to do it. But if you want to deal with like Matt Mitchell's put in our chat, which is like betting these individual teams, I think that's really fun too. I just. Because I put so much money, I'd rather play the safe market. I'll probably just do the over one and a half which at this point minus 130. I gotta do it, Chad. I've been waiting, I've been on the sideline. But I just think it's too tempting these teams to get that fifth year on the contract. Right? Even if I said I think he's a second round quarterback to trade up into pick 32 or 31 and you get that fifth year guaranteed on Ty Simpson just in case he hits, that's a big deal to me. So I, I can't believe it's moved this much. But it's, it's too tempting. I can't pass on it yet.
- [19:00]
Derek, you're laughing.
- [19:02]
Derek Brown
Yeah, I mean I'm looking back at all the draft bets that I made right now on March 30, it was plus 200 for under the one and a half. And now seeing that line movement all the way down to plus 100 is, is wonderful. And then this last week, I was talking to people that I trust around the league and all I was hearing was he's going to be a second round pick, he's going to be a second round pick. And yeah, Uncle Mitch here was, was definitely on point with the odds here. Like, I mean, look, I, I would love to tell everybody a lot of long shots. If I was going to take any long shot on a landing spot, it'd be the Cleveland Browns at 1100 here only because they have done a ton of work. The two teams that I've heard with people that I've talked with, Arizona, and they're the clear favorite here, which, you know it. Do I want to bet it at +130? No. Because of the volatility and how many ways this could go. If I was going to bet anything right now, it would be the, the under one and a half. But also like if I was going to take a long shot to be the Cleveland Browns, I, from what I've heard from people, the Arizona Cardinals love him. So I, I think the market is right here. So I think there's, you know, angles to attack, but I do think he's going to be a second round pick when it's all said and done.
- [20:12]
Chad Millman
It's so interesting. You look at historically a guy like Ty Simpson, he's no different than any other dude who didn't play much, who was lightly recruited, who had one good year at the big school in the right system. And there are these NFL guys who are so freaking smart, who know NFL systems so well and they, and there's all this news. Arizona Cardinals and they got Mike LaFleur, who's supposed to be a brilliant offensive mind, who's off the McVeigh and the Matt LaFleur tree. This guy is willing to bet his career on Ty Simpson. That's what this comes down to every single time. It is these guys who willing to bet their careers on total long shots. It's Simon. It's worse than being a professional.
- [21:09]
Derek Brown
Better not a move I'd make.
- [21:11]
Chad Millman
I don't get it. I'm right there with you, Chad, where it's like, you know, next year's class is stacked. Why not kick the can down the road like we talk all the time. You need to nail it like if you take the wrong quarterback, it can set you back three to four to five years or totally, totally destroy your organization.
- [21:29]
Right.
- [21:29]
I mean Detroit Lions, God bless them, they have what three, three playoff wins in 67 years. And it's like little did they know that golf would be their savior. Right? And it's like that's how important is to find the right quarterback with the right coaching staff. And I look at Arizona, they don't they maybe they have found the right coaching staff. They don't have the team to support a young quarterback right right now. So to me they're the perfect team to keep filling holes. And then next year which is we expect to be a loaded class for quarterbacks be go get one of the top guys. Like it just doesn't make sense. Like you know as a Bears fan, you guys as much as respect to be given Justin Fields, you saw immediately the difference between Caleb Williams and Justin Fields chat as a fan, you saw the difference immediately. I mean think about that. Think about if you guys would have kept Justin Fields and traded out of that pick on Caleb Williams. Like it's just you can't even imagine doing that. That's how stupid would be. That's how stupid it feels that these teams I would reach to take Simpson like I'm right there with Derek. I just as good as this kid's upside could be to me his peak upside is Brock Purdy. Is Brock Purdy really worth mortgage in your future on? Like I like Brock Purdy but I rather have a body typer for Mana Mendoza. Right. Big as hell, built like a brick house. Right. That's gonna be able to take hits. We've seen Purdy not hold up. That's my same concern with this kid Ty Simpson. I don't think he can hold up. He hasn't taken enough reps in college. It's. I'm with you. The whole thing is bizarre. I'm just. I'm going based off these teams I think are going to panic come come the draft day that we always see where right organizational pressure. Your owner especially Arizona, they have a bad ownership. Who knows if they're calling down the front office saying I want this kid. This kid's still there. Pick 30, trade up. I want him. So that's. That's what I'm banking here is a stupid organization that stays stupid and makes stupid moves. And that's. That's what I'm banking on. I think Derek is thinking way too sensible. He's thinking like I totally agree with him. We've seen these drafts, man, these teams, they're not sensible. They panic. And it happens every year, right? It just takes one or two teams to fall in love with a guy to make something stupid happen. And that's what I think might happen here.
- [23:41]
Simon Hunter
If you want to take the swing on a quarterback in this class, why take Ty Simpson in the first or second round when you could take somebody like a Garrett Nussmeier and maybe round three or round four or, you know, my guy Cole Payton, if you wanted to go even the project route, like, you got Brissette Minshew there to play, Nobody's rushing you. But once you draft the quarterback inside of those top two rounds, the clock starts. Guys like you're tied to that guy. Like, how many guys outside of Chris Ballard and Shane Steig get to like, reset and get to draft another quarterback or go through all of this again? Like, usually the way this goes is you draft the quarterback. If he sucks and he fails, you're gone. You don't have one of these 32 jobs anymore. So is that really the bet that you want to make? I, I, I wouldn't be doing that, but I, you know.
- [24:32]
Chad Millman
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Public Investing Announcer
Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public, you can build a multi ass asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public
- [27:03]
Public Investing Disclosures
Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors, llc. SEC Registered Advisor. Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice.
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Public Investing Announcer
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Chad Millman
Kyle. Again?
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Chad Millman
I admit it.
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- [28:47]
Chad Millman
All right, so this is a really interesting topic because the shelf life for an NFL coach is so limited and it is so tied to a quarterback and the amount of convincing that you have to do as a leader of an NFL team to communicate that to players, to communicate that to the player who will be your quarterback. To communicate confidence to the public through the media, to fans. Like Seth talked about this last week. You know Simon, like when you are a quarterback, you are representing a multi billion dollar business. Same thing with the coach. You are representing a multi, multi billion dollar business that is in your hands. It's why coaches come and go so quickly. Why you would ever do anything where you have to convince yourself that you can, you can see it. Like if you, if you squint you can see it. It just makes no sense as a professional. Better I would bet that you know, you got to win 53% to make any money as professional. Better I would bet your odds are better as a professional. Better than it is as someone trying to predict what quarterback is going to do well in the NFL.
- [30:09]
Yeah, so that's, that's fair. But it's also, I do give respect to NFL because what we have seen is the first round quarterbacks do work out, right? When you just look at a hole, they are pretty good at evaluating the talent in the sense that they know which guys have the talent. The, the hardest part for these teams is what you just said to pull the actual trigger. Like they talk themselves out of guys more often than not, right? And then you see it time and time again. Like I, I always will always go back and I hate crushing them. Bill Polian but the Lamar tape is to me one of the most embarrassing things you've ever seen. Right when he said Lamar Jackson should be a wide receiver that's going to live in infamy that will always haunt that guy because it was such a bad take the NFL. All these teams agreed with him though. Lamar Jackson, a 32nd pick, end up winning two MVP. So you, you see it happen all the time, Chad. These teams, they talk themselves out of players more often. They talk themselves into players. And you know what I, what I view so interesting is that we've had a nice run here of these quarterbacks, right? Like if I sell the time, people are like, well there's such a low level of talent of quarterback Playing the NFL, this is the best it's ever been. We've never had more talented players at the quarterback position than we have right now. Any given year, there's 10 to 15 guys you would be happy to have as your quarterback on your team. People forget we had thin years there, right? We had years where it was still Brady, it was still Ben Roethlisberger, still Philip Rivers being these top tier quarterbacks. And then sprinkled it was Aaron Rodgers and a little bit of Stafford. It was just very lean. And now we have so much talent. Hell, people are going to be writing books about Joe Burrow and you know, Josh Allen if they can't win the big one and Lamar Jackson because that's how high the town level is right now. We have so much talent. So to me, these teams, that's why I don't get the Ty Simpson thing. It's like, does Ty Simpson move the needle to compare to a guy like Josh Allen or compared to a guy like Mahomes? He's ever going to be either be able to get close to those guys? If the answer is no, then what's the point? Like you said, Chad, you're mortgage in your whole entire future. If you're the gm, this is your guy, this is your move, your one move, your one shot. And I loved it last year, I think it was the, the Jets GM was talking about his kid was giving him a hard time to move up in the draft and to go get. I don't know if it was CJ Stroud, whoever it was. And he was like, no, we're going to hold Pat right now. Look at the Jets. It's three years later, two years later, they still don't have their guy. And that's the issue. I think that gym's been fired at this point too. So it's like to me, these, these, these GMs, everything like that, it's, it's a little bit what you're talking about, Chad. I would never, I never want to take the guy in the second round to give myself the ego boost that if I'm right, I'm right in a big way. Right. It's a huge upside. I'd always go the safe route and pick my spot.
- [32:53]
Derek Brown
Right?
- [32:53]
Chad Millman
You wanted, you really want to lock in and take the guy you truly believe in. And we've seen it time and time again. We all get sold fool's gold, Chad. And the biggest draft class. I always remember, always be that, that Lawrence, Lawrence who was a trail Lance that went. And then you know, Zach went second pick. And you know that. That draft class, we love them, right? Like, oh, my God, we have three, four guys. Mac Jones was part of it, too. We have three, four guys that could be legit studs. Justin Fields. Nope. End up just being Trevor Lawrence. The rest kind of fell by wayside. Now, Mac Jones might be a guy
- [33:30]
still, but let me cut you off there. Let me cut you off there because I did a little math while you were talking. I just went back first front quarterbacks picked since 2020 through 24. So I didn't do this past year because the. The jury's out on Cam ward and. Right. 2024, Caleb, Jaden Daniels, B. Knicks, Drake May, Michael Penck, JJ McCarthy. Four out of six. You could say those franchises are feeling good, right? 2023, Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, Anthony Richardson. Maybe one out of three. Right. CJ. But I. Derek's putting zero up for CJ. So we're saying zero in that one. Right. And I don't disagree. Like, CJ was a baller. Year one. Year two and three, not so much. 2022, Kenny Pickett over one. Okay. 2021. 2021, Trevor Lawrence, Simon, to your point, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin fields, Mac Jones, one for five. Okay. And then 2020. Joe Burrow, who, by the way, Simon, you still think the jury's out. Like, if the best he ever does is that super bowl season, then you could be right. Tua. Justin Herbert, who is continues to be an all stats guy, he's turning into Dan Fouts. And then Jordan Love, who I think we can all agree is on a good path. So that's two for four of those four drafts. That's eight of 19.
- [35:21]
Well, Jalen Hurts in the second round, but I agree that was just a first round segment, right?
- [35:24]
That was just first round. So that's eight of 19. It's below 50. Like, it is a crap.
- [35:33]
No, it's hard.
- [35:34]
Like, I was.
- [35:35]
Derek Brown
I was gonna push back and say we're making the case that GMs don't talk themselves into stuff. I was gonna push back and say they talk themselves into stuff all the freaking time with the quarterbacks.
- [35:44]
Simon Hunter
Like, this happens every year. Like, we push up questionable guys.
- [35:48]
Derek Brown
We didn't even bring up, like, Mitch Trubisky. I'm sorry, Chad. Oh, my God.
- [35:52]
Simon Hunter
Previous years where, like, you've got the small starting experience, and it's like there's so many red flags and they're just like, I don't care. It's all good.
- [36:01]
Derek Brown
Beer. Goggles on.
- [36:02]
Simon Hunter
Let's go, baby.
- [36:03]
Chad Millman
Yeah. I don't know if it's arrogance or desperation, you know, I can fix this guy. I've been in that spot. I've hired people. Like, I've thought, oh, I'm good enough to teach this guy how to do something. And because you've had a little bit of success, you. You get excited. You're new. You talk someone into something. I mean, this just has this. This has disaster written all over. It's a very interesting exercise. You're better off being a professional, better than you are being an NFL head coach.
- [36:34]
You don't think it's bad ownership? Chad, like, to me, I look at the Bears, your. Your team, think about how many forced quarterbacks they took and how many quarterbacks they passed on until the owner finally took a step back and let a GM actually run.
- [36:47]
Totally true.
- [36:48]
And the jets, again, we. I. I couldn't believe it. Me and you, neither of us could believe. We could not believe Zach Wilson.
- [36:56]
Yep.
- [36:57]
This kid from Utah was going to go to New York, an undersized guy, and save that organization. So that's what I mean. Like, I just. I'm right there with you. I just think it starts at the top. It's these bad owners that just totally nuke their franchise because they're successful in some aspect of business, and they think that could translate to football when it has nothing to do with football. So that's why, again, Derek, have I talked you into Ty Simpson in her first round? You've heard how these GMS and these owners are. Can I get you there? Minus 1:30?
- [37:28]
Simon Hunter
No, you can't get me there. Minus 130. The other thing I was going to bring up here, too, is throughout this entire conversation, Dave Tepper says, hi. Like, can we remember everything that he traded away for Bryce Young? Like, just the betting on outliers of outliers of outliers. And it's like, oh, this will work out. History says no.
- [37:51]
Derek Brown
History says no.
- [37:52]
Chad Millman
Yeah. It's just astonishing to me how little owners and GMs and coaches for that matter, pay attention to what's happened in the past, and they clearly get in their own way at some point in the chain. Simon, you're totally right. It's an owner who comes down over the top and says, we got to do this, because, you know, GMs and coaches would say no. So now, all of a sudden is the Bidwell family, You know, the. The. The family that bought their franchise for $5,000 in 1932 because it was going out of business and the the patriarch of that family who was connected to Al Capone, who owned racetracks throughout all of Chicago going back almost 100 years, a big better bought the Cardinals and now all of a sudden they have been suffering because they have not been able to get that family out of the business for 100 years.
- [38:48]
Derek Brown
We're also kind of laying out the entire script of Draft day, are we not?
- [38:53]
Chad Millman
Yes, it's true.
- [38:54]
Derek Brown
Are we not always also discussing that which by the way, that's a yearly tradition. I will be watching it the night before the draft. I don't care. Everybody could talk about how bad of a movie it is.
- [39:02]
Simon Hunter
It's still fun.
- [39:03]
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- [41:20]
Chad Millman
By the way, when I was just going on that riff about the Cardinals, it reminded me, here's a stat that is crazy. So, you know, I'm finishing this book and Derek, I've been writing this book about this world of sports betting that. That I gotta finish, right? The connections. We've talked about this on the show between sports betting and professional sports, going back to the beginning of professional sports. Really, it's so interconnected because anyone with any money who had cash that wasn't, you know, donating to civic institutions like museums or parks or preservation of some kind of. They were the people who were bookies and action junkies and they had cash to buy professional sports, which none of the, you know, the Vanderbilts and the Rockefellers were interested in. They thought it was a joke. So a lot of times in the early days, professional franchises were owned by bookies and professional betters, including the now Arizona Cardinals, the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the New York football giants. Those three franchises were bought for a combined $8,000. They are now worth a combined $22 billion. Owned by the same families. Isn't that wild?
- [42:35]
Derek Brown
I do feel like you're burying the lead a little bit, Chad. Like, is chapter 18 how you took $15,000 and lost it all in sports betting, though? Is that the.
- [42:44]
Chad Millman
No, that chapter doesn't come into play because sports betting is the best. Nobody loses.
- [42:48]
Derek Brown
Absolutely did.
- [42:49]
Chad Millman
Wait, is that about me? Did I lose $15,000?
- [42:52]
No.
- [42:52]
Simon Hunter
Oh, you didn't see the.
- [42:53]
Derek Brown
Everything with the guy that was given $10,000 and then lost all that.
- [42:59]
Chad Millman
The McKay Coppin story in the Atlanta. Yeah, we haven't even talked about that one. Did you see that story?
- [43:05]
Derek Brown
Jeez, man.
- [43:06]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I refuse to talk about. I don't want to give him any. Any. Like, people ask me on Twitter about. I was like, it's everything I hate. So I will pass.
- [43:13]
I have a lot of thoughts on it, and I feel like in media, the Capital J journalism community has a fetish with writing about how easy it is to lose money in professional sports betting and go into a rabbit hole of nightmares and how this is terrible for society. And I will tell you, I don't know any betters. Who say sports betting is good for society, but they all think sports betting is bad for society. But they all aren't addicts who are losing their money, who do it as a gimmick, who have never bet before and then have to ask their priest to allow them to do it and then get $10,000 from somebody else and make terrible decisions. Two things can be true. This was an idiotic gimmick. And sports betting doesn't do much for society. But just because it doesn't do much for society doesn't mean that you always have to be losing all of your money when you do it. And I feel like there are a lot of. And this is, this goes back to the beginning of sports betting coverage in the media. Like, people only want to cover it from a sensationalistic perspective. They don't want to cover it from a responsible perspective. And so the story's great, really well reported and well written. It's just a gimmick that every other journalist has been doing for the past three years about sports.
- [44:35]
Derek Brown
Bay couldn't get any better.
- [44:37]
Chad Millman
I'll just say I am one of the 1 percenters. I believe betting is good for society. I wrote a book in my past life chat about cavemen. The first bet ever placed. I bet you I can beat you in a race to that tree. Humans have been betting since the dawn of time, so I am one of the skewed people. I do think it's just a natural part of us life and it's fun and it's like life sucks for the most part. If something can distract me from all that and be fun, I'm about it. So, yeah, like, again, I don't, I don't want to get. I, I get it. Chad, let's give the guy a little bit of light. But I, I haven't talked at all.
- [45:14]
I don't want to give the guy. Like, Derek brought it up.
- [45:20]
You said we didn't talk on the show. And I'm, I'm, I'm glad we had him because I just, as soon as I saw it made my blood boil. I, I hate it.
- [45:26]
Derek Brown
And I was seething when I saw it on social media.
- [45:30]
Chad Millman
It's just dumb. It's totally dumb. All right, guys, listen, we're. What are we, 12 days from the draft by the time Derek is on the show again, next time, all of the markets will be available. Derek, you just said something at the top of the show, though, that I didn't want to lose. Lose a thread on which is you've gone through all the markets. What are the biggest moves? What are some of the changes since we started talking about it that you've seen that you've been tracking?
- [46:05]
Derek Brown
I'm waiting for first position drafted markets on some of these teams. I think some of these teams, I mean, conveniently you're not seeing certain teams listed. You know, with some of the news. One thing we didn't bring up is everybody, you know, talking about, okay, well, they traded John Don, Tavian Wick. So I, I am monitoring the, the Green Bay packers market for first drafted. I think they're alive to take a wide receiver despite all the other holes. They've been drafting wide receivers the last few years. Besides that, it's just really monitoring it based off of news and the things that are coming out, whether it's looking at first position drafted by certain players or certain teams. The other ones are, we are.
- [46:48]
Simon Hunter
We did get a few like the
- [46:50]
Derek Brown
over under spots of draft position markets like Casey Concepcion coming out, unless I missed him in like 1st, 2nd, 15th, pass the under at 26.5 at plus money. So looking for more of the, the draft position markets to, to drop. If we get an expansion of some of these second positions off the board that are drafted, some of that stuff has come out. But really just you know how the markets are going to further expand because again, a lot of teams aren't listed, a lot of players aren't listed. So I think hopefully the floodgates open up because I'm watching all of it.
- [47:26]
Chad Millman
Simon Dantavian, Wicks, Derek just mentioned it. Traded from Green Bay to Philly. Green Bay's already gotten rid of Romeo Dobbs, New England. That has massive impacts for the Packers. What do you think all this signals
- [47:42]
Derek Brown
for
- [47:44]
Chad Millman
the Philadelphia Eagles?
- [47:47]
I don't know. It's. It was an interesting move because it's, I actually think it's a good move. I like him as a receiver. I don't really understood why Green Bay moved off of him where Golden's unproven. They don't really have a good receiving core in Green Bay. On the flip side, if A.J. brown doesn't get traded on June 1st and it's Wicks, AJ and Devonte Smith, that's, that's a pretty strong three, especially blocking wise. Like, you know, he's a great blocker as well. So yeah, the Eagles one kind of didn't make sense because all the rumors I heard all past two weeks where the Eagles were going to take a receiver in the first round, so maybe they still will. And AJ's still going to get traded before the draft. It's just I never know how he's doing, how he's just always making random moves and you know, Jahad Doxon, I think we got him from. Was it the commanders we traded?
- [48:34]
Yeah, yeah.
- [48:36]
Like, again, not the greatest, biggest move ever. The guy had a huge catch in the super bowl. So it's like how he does all these weird moves and I, I don't really get it, but I'm gonna trust him on this one. Like, to me, it's, it's a good move for Green Bay. Standpoint. I don't really get it. Maybe they just didn't view him as being reliable or some stuff behind the scenes. But yeah, to Derek's point, does that mean Green Bay is going to have back to back drafts? Taking a wide receiver in the first round, that would be shocking. That would literally blow my mind when they hadn't, they hadn't taken a ride receiver in the first round in 30, 40 years. So it's a golden last year or the year before.
- [49:11]
Derek Brown
Sorry.
- [49:13]
Chad Millman
Yeah, that's. I think that's right. Like all of a sudden. Could this be the packers going heavy on receivers after ignoring it for generations? All right, so like I said, 12 days out, Derek will be on again next week. We'll have a lot more markets that are finally posted, a lot more activity. We'll be getting all the intel on who's moving, who's not moving, where people are going, all that good stuff. Derrick Brown, Fantasy Pros football podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. Thanks for coming on the show. This has been Sharper Square part of the Volume Podcast Network. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square, like this video. Subscribe to the channel, Download some Spotify Apple pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe, Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you. Hello. You play to win the game, you
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Chad Millman
Mommy, look.
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Really?
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Chad Millman
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