Sharp or Square – NFL Offseason Mailbag: Free Agent QBs, NFL Future Bets & More
Airdate: February 12, 2026
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Episode Theme & Overview
In this offseason mailbag, betting expert Chad Millman and pro sports gambler Simon Hunter field listener questions and debate early NFL futures, new head coaches, free agent QBs, and which franchises face the most turmoil. With a focus on actionable bet insights and unfiltered takes, the pair draw from both their professional betting backgrounds and their deep knowledge of NFL trends, coaching moves, and roster construction, setting the stage for how to approach the 2026 NFL offseason from a sharp perspective.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
The NFL Offseason: Always On
- Despite being called the "offseason," Simon and Chad reiterate that the NFL news cycle never stops — especially for professional bettors who are always hunting for early value in futures and monitoring coaching hires.
- Chad describes his post-Super Bowl travel blitz: “I don’t feel like it’s the offseason, Simon. It’s busier than ever.” (01:30)
Early 2026 Super Bowl Futures Bets
Odds reviewed at Hard Rock Bet:
- Rams, Seahawks: +900
- Bills: +1100
- Ravens: +1300
- Packers, Eagles: +1400
- Texans, Jaguars: +2000
- Bears: +2200
- Lions: +1500
Simon’s Quick Takes (07:20):
- Bet the Chiefs at 15:1, despite sensing possible rebuild: “If any team can find a way, we know it’s them. At 15 to 1…that felt too egregious.” (07:29)
- Things got worse for his other longshot, Cleveland at 150:1.
- Intrigued by the Saints (125:1) and Panthers (110:1) as deep shots in the NFC South; Giants (70:1) bet by some pros, but Simon thinks odds aren’t generous enough given risk.
Chad’s Angle on Futures (08:50):
- Acknowledges curiosity in teams like the Jaguars and Lions due to ascending young coaches/QBs, but admits second thoughts: “I’m Lions curious at 15 to 1. If their defense ever stays healthy...” (09:19)
- Sees value in betting on teams with strong second-year coaches showing improvement.
Why Not High on Texans/Jags/Bears (Simon, 10:32):
- Odds are clustered—better value will appear if these teams start slow.
- “If I only can make one [Super Bowl future] bet...pick a team that either has a dominant O-line or D-line.” (11:05)
- Dominant lines, not skill positions, have reliably forecasted Super Bowl runs.
Building a Super Bowl Winner: It Still Starts Up Front
- Both reiterate the importance of O-lines and D-lines in making futures bets—noting the overlooked importance vs. casual betting public always chasing QBs/WRs. (11:01–12:01)
- Ex: Recent winners (Eagles, Seahawks, Chiefs) all rode trench dominance.
Betting the Bills: Tempting but Incomplete (Simon)
- “I was honestly tempted to take Josh Allen at 11 to 1.” (12:07)
- Problem: lack of a true No. 1 receiver, hence holding off for now.
NFL Head Coaching Carousel: Hits, Misses & Upside (13:14)
Teams with New Head Coaches for 2026
- Arizona (Mike LaFleur), Falcons (Kevin Stefanski), Ravens (Jesse Minter), Bills (Joe Brady), Browns (Todd Monken), Raiders (Clint Kubiak), Giants (John Harbaugh), Steelers (Mike McCarthy), Titans (Robert Saleh)
Coaches They “Hate”:
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Simon: “I don’t know how anyone has confidence in Arizona or Miami. Those feel like total tear down rebuilds.” (14:22)
- Points to QB situations: “How do you have faith in Tua?” and damning ex-teammate quotes about Kyler Murray’s lack of passion (14:30)
-
Todd Monken to Browns also called a “horrible hire.”
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Chad singles out John Harbaugh: “I’m not a John Harbaugh guy...I think he’ll improve the culture...But his offenses are pretty unimaginative...that’s reportedly one of the reasons he left [Ravens]—they wanted him to fire Todd Monken and he wouldn’t do it.” (15:14–15:30)
Coaches They “Love”:
- Chad: “The one that I love is Clint Kubiak to the Raiders...He was a magnificent play caller and took a very good talent in Sam Darnold and put him in positions to succeed.” (16:15)
- Simon: “Mentor [Jesse Minter] to the Ravens. I think they’re trying to correct their errors...they let one of the best defensive minds walk out the door. Expect him to be that type of guy.” (17:32)
- Kubiak and Minter = “knocked it out of the park” hires for Chad & Simon.
Most Baffling (Mike McCarthy to Steelers):
Simon: “I hate the hire times 1000...Bizarre, bizarre, bizarre hire...But Pittsburgh’s been great at hiring coaches, who am I to doubt them?” (18:10)
Chad is less harsh: “I think he’s a really good offensive coach...with McCarthy at least you’re getting more creativity and offensive expertise. So I don’t hate it.” (20:46)
Notable quote from Simon on McCarthy:
“His offenses have always laid an egg in the playoffs between Aaron Rodgers, Dak.” (21:20)
Franchise Turmoil Rankings: Who’s in the Worst Shape? (22:20)
Contenders: Arizona Cardinals, NY Jets, Cleveland Browns
- Chad: “It’s got to be the Jets. They’re poisonous. One of the worst organizations in sports...Desperate, grasping, don’t really know what they’re doing.” (23:09)
- Simon: “I don’t know how you don’t pick Arizona. They’re in a division with...the three best top five coaches in the NFL—Shanahan, McVay, McDaniel/McDonald. I just don’t know how Arizona can get out of this.” (24:03)
Ownership callout: Bidwell family’s roots in gambling and connections to Al Capone, per Chad. (25:55)
Free Agent QB Market: Slim Pickings
Names mentioned by ESPN’s Ben Solak: Daniel Jones, Malik Willis, Gardner Minshew, Kirk Cousins, Kyler Murray, Tua Tagovailoa (28:40)
- Chad: “Nothing here feels exciting to me. The only one...remotely exciting...I guess is Malik Willis.” (28:31)
- Simon: On Darnold, “If you put Sam Darnold on the Arizona Cardinals this year, they win five games. He was not great this year...he had the most turnovers in the league.” (29:05)
- Suggests taking fliers on Mac Jones, Malik Willis as buy-low backups; doubts upside with most veterans.
The Super Bowl Hangover Is Real
- Next year’s Patriots outlook (Drake Maye, tough schedule): Both expect major regression. (31:58)
- Simon: “If it opens anything above [total wins] 9.5—hammer, hammer, hammer that under.” (33:12)
- Chad: “Wouldn’t be surprised if they open at ten and a half given the hype.” (33:25)
Memorable Quotes & Timestamps
- “I don’t feel like it’s the offseason, Simon. It’s busier than ever.” – Chad Millman (01:30)
- “The NFL now really is 365. It kind of never ends.” – Simon Hunter (02:19)
- “If any team can find a way, we know it’s them. At 15 to 1…that felt too egregious.” – Simon, on the Chiefs (07:29)
- “My point for all this is...it’s time to start talking about NFL offseason futures.” – Chad (05:40)
- “Pick a team that either has a dominant offensive line or a dominant, well-known defensive line...that’s held true.” – Simon (11:08)
- “I’m lions curious at 15 to 1.” – Chad (09:19)
- “How do you have faith in Tua? ...Kyler’s got ex-teammates telling Jets ownership, do not bring this guy in.” – Simon (14:30)
- “I’m not a John Harbaugh guy...his offenses are pretty unimaginative.” – Chad (15:14)
- “Mentor [Minter] to the Ravens...I did really like that hire.” – Simon (17:32)
- “I hate the hire times 1000...Bizarre, bizarre, bizarre hire [Mike McCarthy].” – Simon (18:10)
- “I think [McCarthy]’s a really good offensive coach...I don’t hate it.” – Chad (20:46)
- “It’s got to be the Jets. They’re poisonous...Desperate, grasping, don’t really know what they’re doing.” – Chad (23:10)
- “You just never know.” – Chad, quoting Bill Murray from Stripes (31:20)
- “If it opens anything above 9.5 [Patriots wins]—hammer that under.” – Simon (33:12)
Key Takeaways
- Betting Value Emerges Early & Late: Early Super Bowl odds are distributed unusually wide; sharp bettors wait for dropping lines on slow-starting surprise teams. Focus on lines, not skill-position flash.
- Trenches Still Matter Most: Elite O-lines or D-lines remain the sharpest angle for futures, a persistent edge over “square” focus on WRs/QBs only.
- Coaching Hires Can Shift Futures: Clint Kubiak (Raiders) and Jesse Minter (Ravens) stand out as sharp, high-upside coaching changes.
- QB Market is Thin: Few free agent QBs inspire much faith for immediate contention.
- Buyers Beware of Super Bowl Hangovers: Especially for losing teams, aggressive regression/under bets on win totals can pay.
Notably Skipped Sections
- All ads, lengthy sponsor reads, podcast intros/outros (removed per instructions).
This summary distills all major content, reflects the hosts' attitude and betting angles, and is organized for rapid consumption by smart bettors and NFL fans alike.