Sharp or Square – NFL Playoffs Divisional Round Bets

Podcast: Sharp or Square by iHeartPodcasts and The Volume
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Episode: NFL Playoffs Divisional Round Bets: Bills-Broncos, Niners-Seahawks, Texans-Patriots, Rams-Bears
Date: January 13, 2026

Overview

Chad Millman and professional sports bettor Simon Hunter dissect the NFL Divisional Round playoff betting landscape. They explore each matchup, share sharp and square betting insights, break down key stats, and debate spreads and totals for all four games: Bills-Broncos, Niners-Seahawks, Texans-Patriots, and Rams-Bears. The tone is candid, analytical, and laced with both humility after a tough Wild Card weekend and renewed confidence about the week ahead.

Episode Structure

• [02:07–05:43] Opening: Reflecting on a brutal Wild Card round, mindset in betting, and contest leaderboard.
• [05:43–18:04] Game 1: Buffalo Bills (-1) at Denver Broncos
• [21:19–28:40] Game 2: San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5)
• [29:09–33:19] Game 3: Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-3)
• [40:11–47:31] Game 4: Los Angeles Rams (-4) at Chicago Bears
• [47:51–51:30] Recap & Early College Football Title Game Talk

Main Themes

• Moving Past Losses: Honest discussion about their 1–4 Wild Card week, embracing the ups and downs of NFL betting.
• Sharp vs. Square Analysis: Pinpointing where public money is and how wiseguys are looking at the matchups.
• Stat-Driven Insights: Leveraging historical trends, ATS records, and situational angles.
• Game Theory & Psychology: Discussing line movement, injury impact, coaching strengths, and weather.

Game-by-Game Breakdown

[05:43–18:04] Bills (-1) at Broncos

Spread/Totals:

• Buffalo -1 on the road at Denver, total 47 (as low as 46.5 at recording).

Sharp Pick:

Simon Says: Denver +1

"Give me the Denver Broncos. Simon says plus one, brother." — Simon Hunter [07:43]

Key Discussion Points

• Shocking Line: Surprised books made Allen a road favorite vs. the AFC’s No.1 seed.
• Line Movement: Expecting it to flip to Denver favored; historical precedence is rare for a home #1 seed to be a dog.
• Recent Examples:
  • 2018 Eagles were home dogs, won outright.
  • 2011 49ers and 1997 Panthers—same scenario, both won.
• Matchup Angle:
  • Denver’s pass rush will challenge Allen, who struggles with pressure.
  • Coaching mismatch: Sean Payton on extended prep is 4–0 straight up in playoffs since 2003.
• Public vs. Pros:
  • Heavy public money on Buffalo/Josh Allen but pros are on Denver.
  • "Dog here that the public doesn’t believe in and professionals do... Usually a nice spot to be in." — Simon [11:36]
• Stat Fatigue:
  • Underdogs and unders in the Wild Card round went 4–2 each.
  • Home divisional favorites since 2003: 33–44 ATS (43%). If favored by a TD+, number drops to 40%.

Totals Lean:

• Chad leans OVER, but Simon cautions to wait on weather updates. Market has moved down, indicating professional sharp money on the UNDER.

Notable Quotes:

• "His defense is suspect and it’s definitely a coaching disadvantage." — Chad Millman [08:07]
• "Sean Payton, on extended prep... 4–0 straight up in the playoffs when he’s had that scenario." — Simon [10:55]
• "Public is coming off a 5–1 week... I think they’re gonna get crushed this week." — Simon [12:20]

[21:19–28:40] 49ers at Seahawks (-7.5), Total 45.5

Chad’s Choice:

UNDER 45.5 (Niners-Seahawks)

Key Discussion Points

• Rematch Context: Played two weeks ago: Seahawks dominated Niners with Kittle in, 13–3.
• Seattle’s Defense:
  • Top ranked in defensive DVOA, top-2 vs. run and pass.
  • Number one in NFL per advanced metrics.
  • "It’s arguable the Seahawks, Broncos, and Texans are the most dominant defenses left in the playoffs." — Chad [23:12]
• Kyle Shanahan Angles:
  • Niners offense lowest output of his career vs. Seattle D two weeks ago.
  • Good teams missing stars can pull off an initial adjustment but often struggle the next week.
• Spread Value:
  • Simon: Big number (7.5) is "egregious."
  • Likes 49ers to cover given divisional familiarity and history; expects line to close nearer 7 or 6.5.
  • "Third time these teams have met... Division teams playing for the third time, we know it’s going to be a close game." — Simon [26:41]
• Brock Purdy Trend: Purdy is 4–0 ATS vs. Seattle in his career, winning by an average of 10 points.

Totals Point:

• Chad loves the UNDER.
• Simon expects a tight, lower-scoring game: “24–21 type. If that’s right, both total and spread have value for dogs and unders.”

Notable Quotes:

• "Seattle currently ranks number one in defensive DVOA... all the core Kyle Shanahan strengths." — Chad [23:20]
• "Seven and a half feels egregious, egregious." — Simon [24:24]
• "It feels like it’s going to break a lot of people’s teasers." — Simon [27:18]
• "This is a 24–21 game." — Chad [27:39]

[29:09–33:19] Texans at Patriots (-3), Total 41

Early Lean:

• Both hosts confused by the line—lean Houston plus the points, and the UNDER.

Key Discussion Points

• Coaching Matchup:
  • Mike Vrabel (Patriots): Playoff coaching advantage but DeMeco Ryans (Houston) gets high marks.
  • "No one is better at this than Mike Vrabel. The guy just has this team locked in." — Chad [29:09]
• Line Value:
  • Simon: "I could not believe the Texans were plus three."
  • Feels like Houston is the better defense with the better QB (CJ Stroud).
  • Both Nico Collins (WR1 for HOU) and Christian Gonzalez (CB1 for NE) could miss, injuries loom large.
• Bad Wild Card Vibes:
  • Simon made early bets on Texans +3 and the UNDER 41 but wants to keep ears open for injury updates.
• Historic Stat:
  • New England as a favorite of 3+ in the playoffs with rookie QB: 9–2 ATS historically; but Simon less convinced that's relevant here vs. Houston’s D.

Totals:

• Both hosts lean UNDER, expecting a low-scoring, slugfest with a total they think is too high.

Notable Quotes:

• "I could not believe they opened Houston at this big of a dog." — Simon [32:47]
• "I definitely like the UNDER more than the side at this point." — Chad [33:19]
• "It feels too easy, Chad." — Simon [33:13]

[40:11–47:31] Rams (-4) at Bears, Total 50.5

Context:

Prime time Sunday game. Bears enthusiasm is fever pitch, but market signals are murky.

Key Discussion Points

• Line Movement:
  • Opened LA -4, dipped to 3.5, back to 4.
  • Betting percentages trending Bears.
• Weather:
  • Predicted bitter cold: High 18°F, Low 9°F at Soldier Field. “It is going to be bitter, bitter, ice cold.” — Chad [47:05]
• Model vs. Heart:
  • Simon’s model says Rams -7.5, but “don’t feel that way at all”.
  • Bears “keep all games close,” but Rams are a true contender.
• Historical Angles:
  • "Bears home underdog, divisional round — it’s rare, last happened with the Eagles and 49ers years ago."
  • Stafford is 4–0 straight up as a playoff favorite (best mark since 2000).
• Underdog Magic:
  • Hosts worry if the Bears are due for a letdown or if they’re truly magical.
  • "At what point do they run into an actual legit contender?" — Simon [45:08]

Totals Discussion:

• Total dropped from 52 to 50.5; under is the preferred play considering weather and both teams' slow starts.
• "Definitely like the UNDER in the first half" — Chad [47:16]

Notable Quotes:

• "If it’s zero degrees and they’re hanging a 50...maybe we just go first half under." — Simon [44:58]
• "I want to find a reason to buy this Bears team. Right now, I am leaning heavy towards this Rams team." — Simon [46:44]

[47:51–51:30] Recap & College Football Title Lean

• Recap of Main Bets:

  • Simon says: Denver +1 (“Grab it now; line will flip!”)
  • Chad’s choice: Seahawks-Niners UNDER 45.5
  • Both like Niners +7.5, lean to UNDERs in other divisional games.
  • Still evaluating Texans and Bears as underdogs; want to wait for more info.

• Bets to Watch:

  • "We like the unders, and we like the unde first half in Bears-Rams." — Chad [48:32]

• College Football Title Game (Indiana vs Miami):

  • Line has moved from -7.5 to -9 Indiana.
  • Simon is betting the adjusted line, -13.5, on the Hoosiers, but also a bit on Miami’s moneyline: “They roll you, they dominate you, they put their full weight on you.” — Simon [50:43]

Notable Quotes & Moments

• "Please don’t talk to me about moral victories. That’d be disrespectful to those guys in the room." — Simon [03:53]
• "It’s what have you done for me lately? So, yeah, bad week, but keep it moving. It’s Rhonda divisional round now, brother." — Simon [03:53]
• "There’s nobody [better at coaching the playoffs]... the guy just has this team locked in and understands exactly what they're great at..." — Chad (Vrabel praise) [29:09]
• "The public is going to hammer Josh Allen on the road here, for good reason, right? All they look at is the quarterbacks." — Simon [11:09]
• "If you just want to bet loosely, trust your gut, I totally understand going the Bills side. But it’s not a winner. It’s not a long-term winner." — Simon [11:36]
• "You know, every game is a miracle [for the Bears]." — Chad [46:14]

Summary Table: Key Bets & Leans

| Game | Sharp Lean/Best Bet | Notes/Trends | |------------------------|------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------| | Bills (-1) at Broncos | Denver +1 (Simon says) | Expect line flip. Public on Bills. Sean Payton playoff stat. | | Niners at Seahawks (-7.5) | Under 45.5 (Chad); Niners +7.5 (Simon) | Seahawks DVOA; divisional familiarity; third meeting. | | Texans at Patriots (-3) | Lean Texans +3 & Under 41 | Injuries matter; both lean UNDER, but Simon wants more info. | | Rams (-4) at Bears | Under 50.5; watching for 1st Half under | Extreme cold; public and pros eyeing Bears; Stafford as favorite.|

Conclusion & Tone

The hosts maintain a driven, pragmatic approach, blending sharp betting rationale with honest fan emotion. Even after a rough Wild Card week, they approach the divisional matchups with data, trends, and a willingness to adapt to late-breaking news and market movement.

The underlying message: Don’t overreact to last week, trust sound process, and always be ready to zig where the market zags, especially as the field gets tighter and the underdogs get sneaky strong.

Listen for:

• Stat-powered trends you can actually use (“Simon says” is a can’t-miss pick this week)
• Nuanced takes on each game's side and total
• Guidance to keep your emotions in check through playoff volatility

For further details, tune in to Sharp or Square on any major podcast platform or YouTube, and look out for the Thursday show with final picks once late-week trends and injuries crystallize.