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Sharp or Square
NFL Playoffs Divisional Round Bets: Bills-Broncos, Niners-Seahawks, Texans-Patriots, Rams-Bears
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This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.
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A man with down syndrome tries the impossible, the grand slam in turkey hunting.
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4:53 hits. We're legal, shooting light.
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And he gives us this one last.
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And he pitches off. And when he pitches off, he flies right into the gun barrel.
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I said to the cameraman, do you have him?
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He said, shoot him. I said, justin, shoot.
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You can download this episode and others from Lines and tines with Spencer Graves on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
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On June 11, 1998, a deputy from the Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department went missing.
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Hey, if they'll kill a cop and.
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Bury him, what are they gonna do to me?
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What really happened to the missing deputy?
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Valley of Shadows, a new series from Pushkin Industries about crime and corruption in California's high desert. Listen to Valley of shadows on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. The more you listen to your kids, the closer you'll be. So we asked kids, what do you want your parents to hear? I feel sometimes that I'm not listened to. I would just want you to listen to me more often and evaluate situations with me and lead me towards success. Listening is a form of love. Find resources to help you support your kids and their emotional well being@sounditouttogether.org that's sounditout together.org brought to you by the Ad Council and Pivotal.
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The social media trend is landing some gen zers in jail. The progressive media darling whose public meltdown got her fired and the massive TikTok boycott against Target. That actually makes no sense. You won't hear about these online stories in the mainstream media, but you can keep up with them and all the other entertaining and outrageous things happening online in media and in politics with the Bread vs Everyone podcast. Listen to the Brad vs Everyone podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock Bat. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes Square sharper, makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my bff, Professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
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B
Chad. How we doing?
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Listen, I feel like we ended the weekend the way we started the weekend. Being on the wrong side of a game that included missed fourth and goal opportunities, momentum swings. We had the Steelers plus three and a half. We fell to one and four in the contest for the opening weekend of the playoffs. I gotta tell you, Simon, things were going so badly for us this weekend that in the final 2 minutes and 35 seconds after the Texans scored that pick six to make it 30 to 6, and at this point, I think they had scored something like 21 points or 14 points, whatever it was, off of defensive touchdowns in the fourth quarter. The plus three and a half is out of reach, but you and I had both bet the under 39 and a half and the under 38 and a half. We've been telling people to take the under 38 and a half. I just assumed that 36 points with two and a half minutes left, there was enough time that the Steelers were going to have to punt or go for it on fourth down. They had all three timeouts. The Texans were going to end up kicking a field goal and we were going to lose that total, too. That's how I felt. We had been. Things have been going for us this weekend.
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We didn't get the job done. We came up short. Please don't talk to me about moral victories. That'd be disrespectful to those guys in the room. Well, Chad, some professional advice you just flush up, buddy, I'm sorry you just relived all that once again. But I don't care whether we go 4 and 1, 1 and 4. I sit here Tuesday with the exact same feeling. Can I win again this upcoming week or can I do better than the week before? So, yeah, sucks. But just after just that same feeling, after winning week, you move on. That's kind of the way this business is. It's what have you done for me lately? So, yeah, bad week, but keep it moving. It's Rhonda divisional round now, brother.
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Last night you were in your feels and I felt like we were sort of connecting in our emotional distress. I feel the same way you do right now. I was only sharing my feelings last night. As soon as the game was over, I'm like, time to move on. I woke up feeling fresh. I did the peloton. I took my dog for a walk. I had some calls. Moving on. It's like I'm clean. I'm back to being as arrogant and confident as we can possibly be. For the season, we are now 52 and 43. Thanks to our one and four week looking at the leaderboard in our sharp or square pro football Bickham contest, a new solo leader has emerged. Last week's number one, Nikki Abs, has fallen to second.
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Some guys have it all.
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I know right Reynolds 311 stands alone at the top at 23 points with just three more slates to go. Good luck to everyone playing. All right, as I said, tough wild card round for us. But as Mike Tomlin would say, last.
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Week was last week, this week was this week. Next week will be next week.
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I feel like that's, that's what you just said. It's time to move on. This is our Tuesday divisional round show where we'll view the entire slate. As a reminder, we'll have our normal Tuesday and Thursday shows through the end of the week, through the end of the season. For this week, we will do our pre kickoff episode on Saturday morning with our official Context contest picks a Sunday night review show after the Rams Bears game. You know, we assume that'll be around 10pm Eastern. I of course will be in Florida prepping for the Indiana Hoosiers Miami Hurricanes national title game, hoping I could stay awake for the 10pm Show. Don't forget you can get the shows at Sharper Square on YouTube. Go subscribe and like the video. While you're at it, you can also subscribe to Sharper Square Apple pods, Spotify wherever you get your pods. I don't know Simon. It's an interesting final grouping of teams. There's no one we can say is totally dominant offensively and defensively. Teams have dominant units, but the teams with the most dominant units say Seahawks defense, Broncos defense, Texas defense have inconsistent player quarterback. Teams with the best quarterbacks, Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford have inconsistent complimentary units on defense. Feels like it's wide open right now. Wide freaking open. Let's get into it. Buffalo 1 Point Road Favorite at Denver this is Saturday, January 17th. The first game 4:30pm Eastern. Total was 47.
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Touchdown. Unbelievable. The Bills are back in it now big time. It is fandom reminder.
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The playoff contest includes all totals for all games sides and totals for all games. Dude, this line's actually bouncing around. There were times when it's been Denver minus one. So what do you think?
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Yeah, Jack, give me a Denver Broncos. Simon says plus one Brother. I want to play a game. Simon says.
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Simon says Denver Broncos plus one. Simon says. Presented by Hard Rock Bet the Denver Broncos plus one Weird game. I want to hear your theories on this. I feel like this is the power of Josh Allen. He's a road favorite against the top seed in the conference. He has no proven number one wideouts against the best defense and one of the best corners in the NFL. And his defense is suspect and it's definitely a coaching disadvantage. Give Me your take.
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Yeah. And we talk all the time about. You're always thinking, what are they going to make these lines with Josh on? Because like we've talked about, he's the best. And I was honestly shocked to see them open this as a favorite. But you know the books, they know what they're doing, right. They're trying to take money here on this, this Bills team. And I do think this line is going to flip to the Broncos being an overwhelming favorite. So I'll give it a stat now that's probably going to be useless in a couple. Couple days if they do flip. But I just want to talk about historical. This is for the Broncos. They're. They're a home dog as the 1 seed. I'm sure you remember the last time this happened, Philadelphia with the dog mask at home against Atlanta.
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Oh, yes.
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Obviously Eagles won that game outright. I think they're plus two and a half dog.
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Yes.
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Before that it was a 49ers. They were three and a half dog against New Orleans. The 49ers won that game outright. And then before that, in 96, 97, Panthers home dog of three and a half against Dallas Carolina won that game outright. So, you know, I'm not the only one of those data points. This is a huge, huge, glaring trend flasher for a lot of professionals. So I do think this line will flip just off that. But matchup wise, you kind of nailed it. Chad. It's defensively, the Jaguars are a very talented team. What's there one thing you could say is lacking a pass rush. That is not something that's lacking at all for Denver. They get after the quarterback. And you know, Josh Allen, as great as he has been this year, you've seen some games that he has struggled is when he has a ton of pressure around him. Right. He's not let it not even set into that. And the quick throws, which he, you know, dominated last week with, right? Shakir, I think he had 12 catches, 12 targets for like 80 yards.
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I was gonna say for. I think he 12 catches for negative 75 yards.
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That's why I love Jo, because it's like he's taking exactly what the defense was giving him. And he kept attacking a guy who's not a good tackler and he kept getting that 5, 6 yards which we talked in the NFL. That's a huge deal. You saw last night, the Pittsburgh died because they were living in second and 12, third and twelves. Like if you're just. You're not in third and five, third and six against good defenses, you're dead. Especially teams can pin the ears back. So just the matchup wise too, it's hard for me to find reasons to, to think the Bills be able to stop this Broncos offense that, you know, they are streaky, but you just nailed it with talking about Sean Payton. Sean Payton on an extended time with extended prep. And you know, the numbers back up my exact sentiment, which I looked it up and it's like, okay, that all makes sense. Sean Payton, his career 4, 0 straight up in the playoffs when he's extended prep time that's since 2003. So he's never lost in this exact scenario of having more time to prep. Now he is 2 and 2 against the spread. So I guess that does matter in some aspect. But my only fear is right now is just like last week where every, every game I got the best of the number and I had zero to show for it, right? You got the 10 on the Rams dead. Got the Jags as a dog that flipped that was dead. Got Green Bay as a dog that flipped that was dead. So I am worried about this one because the public has just been crushing it. The Bills are going to be just like those other teams, like the Bears last week and the Bills last week. The public is going to hammer Josh Allen on the road here for good reason, right? All they look at is the quarterbacks. It's going against Bo Nix, who in his career he lost his first playoff game to this exact same team and Josh Allen. So yeah, for me it's another one. I'm lean into it, right? It's, I'm taking the best of the number of the books given to me. I know the pros will come on the Broncos as well. And I get it. If you just want to bet loosely, just trust your gut. I totally understand the going the Bill side, but it's, it's not a winner. It's not a long term winner. Like I said, you, you're getting a dog here that the public doesn't believe in and the professionals do. And that usually is a nice spot to be in. So public coming off of five and one week, Chad, I think they're gonna get crushed this week. Denver Broncos.
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Well, look, that's the trend, right? Like it never stays that way for the public. So we'll see, we'll see how it goes. I'm just looking up right now. Let me see. You know, what do we got here?
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We got, I mean I can hit you with a ton of stats if you want. I, I know people like it. Because again, we gave it out. If you didn't listen to me and Chad last week, you blindly bet the stat, bet every dog in the wild card round and bet every under. Both went four and two.
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Yeah.
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So it's. We make it very complicated for ourselves. But like, I. That's why I give these stats out, because it's like these people make tons of money just betting these stats that have held true for 26 years now. Like, it's going back to 2000.
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So, yeah, I was just gonna say somehow the only two teams that didn't cover his dogs were two of the teams we had in the contest, which is just a remarkable bit of. And if you had asked professional betters going in, they might have said the two teams that like the most as underdogs were the Chargers and the Steelers. No, what I was just checking was any betting percentages. I saw a slight lean on betting percentages on the. On the Broncos right now. What is your take on the total? 47. To me. This feels, to me. We've seen both teams give up a ton of points, and we've seen both teams score an egregious amount of points in the second half. In these games. I tend to want to play unders, and we're going to talk about that in a second. But just, Just like eyeballing, this feels like an over to me.
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That's fair. I'm not gonna have a play on until maybe Thursday, maybe Saturday morning. I'm just not gonna grab early lines here without knowing anything about what the weather is with the condition. Because if, like you're saying, if it's 30 degrees, clear skies. Yeah, I'm with you. Why would you not take me over here? But if it's in the teens, maybe some weather, some wind. Yeah, I. I immediately like that under. Both these teams are happy to lay into the run. We already know that. Right. And both these teams are happy to burn the clock. So I'm. I'm in no rush to play this one. But like you said, it opened at 47 and a half. 47. It's already back down to 46 and a half. So not. Not that shocking. See the professionals coming in there because we talk about playoffs, everyone gets tight. It's just the way it is. And that's why I think it. What was 20 to the overs to start on Saturday and then four straight unders. Because it's just. That's the normal way usually is. Right. Everyone's just so tight. So, yeah, it's. It's a game where I can hit you with all the trends. It's, it's not that great of a spot technically for Denver if people are bullish on this Bills team since 2003 divisional round, these fa, these favorites because they're going to be, they're going to flip to a be a favorite. I believe the Broncos basically at home in the divisional round. 33 and 44 against the spread. So 43%. That's 3 and 7 against the spread since 2020. That obviously fits Seattle as well if you want to make it. I mean, we're gonna get the Seattle game. It's even worse for Seattle if you're a 7 point favorite as in the divisional round off a buy. 17 and 26 against the spread. So 40%. So once again, another just a blind fade spot. So I know I'm asking a lot here with Denver, but it's, it's, it's as a dog, I think that's a good number. Just because you're getting ahead of the movement.
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Well, that's why it's. Simon says. You know what I mean? Listen, Simon, anyone who listens to this show or watch the show knows I'm an Indiana University alumni. Who?
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Who?
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Who? Hoosiers. Go iu. Fight, fight, fight. Everyone also knows that this Monday night, the Hoosiers, the unstoppable Indiana Hoosiers, are playing the Miami Hurricanes in the 2026 College Football Playoff national title game at the fabulous and famous Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. The best place to stay, not too far from where the game is happening is at the unbelievably cool Seminole Hard Rock Hotel and Casino in Hollywood, Florida. The Guitar Hotel at the Hard Rock totally lives up the hype. I lives up to the hype. I know this. I've stayed there. I've played there, I've eaten until I could eat no more. There I go all in on the good times and the good food at the Hard Rock Hotel and Casino. And of course, they got the full casino. They got the incredible sportsbook. It's going to make you want to skip the Florida beaches. Thanks to our friends, our very good friends at Hard Rock, I'm going to be in town for the Indiana Miami national title game this weekend. I'm going to be roaming around the casino and the sportsbook, soaking it all in. If you see me, please say hello when I'm not there. If I happen to leave at any point, I'm going to be using the top rated Hard Rock BET app so I can hammer the Hoosiers because it is the only, only legal sports betting app available in the state of Florida. Tons of betting markets already live for the game. Get excited because on Thursday show, we're going to have a very special guest is going to help us break down the college football title game. Dude, if you can't tell, I'm freaking out a little bit.
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I'm really not thinking about the next game.
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I'm thinking about cracking open a beer.
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Lines and Tines with Spencer Graves on the iHeartRadio app is a podcast designed for hunters and fishermen to enjoy success. I like the idea of like, hey, put me on a big deer. You know, hey, there's a big deer out here. He's doing this.
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Be looking for this deer.
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But I also love doing it on my own. I love going out there and saying, running my cameras. I love patterning the deer. I like showing up at the right time, checking the wind, knowing what stand I need to be in. And then whenever it all comes together and it happens, that's the most satisfying thing ever. So when you do it on your own, it's like, I then can hang my my hat. But if I had somebody say, hey, pull up on these dots and catch them right here and you're gonna win. And then when I go in, it's like, yeah, it's cool. I won the tournament. The ultimate goal is done. But it's like, dude, when you find them and you make them bite, that's the puzzle. I love it. Listen to Lines and Tines with Spencer Graves on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey everyone, it's Ed Helms and I'm Kal Penn and we are the hosts of Hearsay, The Audible and iHeart Audiobook Club. This week on the podcast, I am talking to film and TV critic, radio and podcast host and Harry Potter super fan Rhianna Dillon to discuss Audible's full cast adaptation of Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone. What moments in this audiobook capture the feeling of the magical world best for you or just stood out the most? I always loved reading about the Quidditch matches and I think the audio really gets it because it just plunges you right into the stands. You have the crowd sounds like all around you. It is surround sound, especially if you're listening in headphones. Listen to Irsay, the Audible and iHeart Audio Book Club on the iHeartradio app.
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Or wherever you get your podcasts. On June 11, 1998, a deputy from the Los Angeles County Sheriff's department went missing. It's an all out manhunt for John Ajay. Every search and rescue team in LA county has been called in to help. Within days, tips started flooding into the Sheriff's department. The ruler around the drug scene was that a deputy was taken care of. Is this the story of a man who just got lost in the desert? Or of a cover up inside the nation's largest sheriff's department?
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A homicide captain saying, detective, do not.
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Find out if this guy's guilty or innocent. Who does that? Valley of Shadows, a new series from police Mushkin Industries about crime and corruption in California's high desert. Do you have any advice for us while looking into this disappearance? I wouldn't do it alone.
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Listen to Valley of shadows on the.
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Iheartradio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Hi, I'm Danny Shapiro, host of the hit podcast Family Secrets.
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We were in the car like a rolling stone came on and he said there's a line in there about your mother. And I said, what?
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What I would do if I didn't.
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Feel like I was being accepted is choose an identity that other people can't have.
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I knew something had happened to me in the middle of the night, but I couldn't hold on to what had happened. These are just a few of the moving and important stories I'll be holding space for on my upcoming 13th season of Family Secrets. Whether you've been on this journey with me from season one or just joining the Family Secrets family, we're so happy to have you with us. I'll dive deep into the incredible power of secrets, the ones that shape our identities, test our relationships, and ultimately reveal who we truly are. Listen to Family secrets on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Saturday, January 17th, 8:00pm Eastern, San Francisco at Seattle. Seattle, you just noted seven and a half point favorite. The total is 45 and a half. Simon Chad's choice presented by Hard Rock Bet is going to be the under 45 and a half. Are you sure you want to do this?
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Are you willing to make a choice?
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A choice? We can't run from who we are. Sure.
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I believe dudes can just see it. You know what I mean?
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We do have a very recent comp for this game they played two weeks ago. Seahawks dominated 113 to 3 to win the number one seed. And that was when the Niners had George Kittle at tight end. And how often have we seen Simon, like a good team loses one of its best players. And for the rest of that game, they adjust. They're playing on energy, they're playing on adrenaline. The Niners pulled it out, but they had to use just about every bag in there, every trick in their bag to get past the Eagles. Seahawks look that it's arguable that then the Texans, the Broncos are the most dominant defense left in the playoffs. Right now we talk about sort of imbalanced units. Against Mike McDonald's defense, the Niners had a 38 success rate. 173 total yards, 3 points. It was the lowest of Kyle Shanahan's career. And I'm stealing this directly from Brandon Anderson, our buddy at action. Seattle currently ranks number one in defensive dvoa top two against both the run in the pass, top seven versus the middle of the field, motion play action under center looks, all core Kyle Shanahan strengths. And on flip side, it's not like Seattle's offense is a shooting star. So taking the under here, am I the only one who is resisting this pride?
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People of Seattle, listen to me.
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We are not barbarians.
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Don't hate it. I'll be there with you. For me though, I definitely feel more confident about taking the 49ers here on the spread. Just seven and a half feels like an egregious, egregious number. And yeah, I get it, they did dominate that last meeting. But come on, everything went wrong for the 49ers in that game. Like we talked about, just everything that could have gone wrong went wrong. And you know, I just have so many questions about Sam Darnold. He's not played well.
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Totally.
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B
It feels like since week 11, week 10. And now it's the biggest stage, the most pressure. And you know, I have tons of stats. I mean, Evan Amers had a really great stat. It was basically teams that didn't make the playoffs last year that make the divisional round and now they're their underdog, which is exactly what this Niners team is. They're 29 of 14 against the spread in this exact spot. So 67%. Which just shows like I talked last week, these certain teams get underrated by the public. And this fits that description, right? A team that aren't they. Didn't they get lucky against the Eagles? I think a lot of people be thinking that way. And I also could see the Seahawks being a huge moneyline teaser play. Right? This is. I think that the 49ers can cover. I would honestly be shocked if they do win. I just. This defense is so impressive. The Seahawks team. I do think it's gonna be a lot to overcome, but seven and a half and a back door and always being a possibility with this Niners offense. I like that, especially where you go through it and, you know, a Purdy against the Seahawks team, which I know people don't believe it, but in his career, he's kind of owned this team in this matchup on the road. Brock Purdy in his career, four. No against the spread, straight up against the Seattle team, winning by almost 10 points per game in this exact spot. So he's kind of been the owner of that stadium, the Seattle team, whether it's been Gino or McDonald coaching this team, right. He's. He's done well against them on the road. And, you know, the more I look into it, it's more like, okay, if this comes down, that would make more sense than ever. Getting up to eight, eight and a half. So to me, this is another one where it's like you just got to grab the number. It's. This feels a game is going to close at seven, six and a half, right? It's just. I can't see this getting up to eight, eight and a half. There's just nothing about this Seahawks team I think is going to keep pushing this number up. And I just see the professionals and the public alike eventually coming to this Niner side because it's just. It's too many points. It just is way too many points. The third time these teams have met, right? Divisional teams playing for the third time. We know it's going to be a close game. I mean, look, again, we just saw that Bears, Green Bay game, divisionally, just play these insane close games. That's what tends to happen. So I am shocked, honestly, the books open this much. And one more stat from our guy Evan that I loved. Divisional round, Wild card round. Kyle Shanahan, his career is now 70 straight up 6 and 1 against the spread in the divisional round as an underdog, a road dog. He is 30 straight up in his career. Shanahan. So, I mean, if you want to sprinkle it on the Seahawks, I mean, the. The 49ers, I'm sure me and Chad will probably have that, our money on Ron Robin. But this. This feels like it's going to break a lot of people's teasers and stuff like that. It's just. I think most people are counting out this 49ers team and that's what the spreads reflecting.
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A
Look, I think what I'm thinking about for the total Lines up with what you're thinking about for the spread. To me, this is a 24, 21 game. Right. It's, it's not going to be up and down, you know, fast paced, high scoring it. And if there's a big total which you're getting over a touchdown, it is. That lends itself to a much closer game. So it would play into the theory that the Niners would cover in this game. So it could be interesting. Simon, we couldn't make two of our picks off of the same game because we get, we get a chance at the, at the total in the spread. Interesting theory, though, on the Niners. It's interesting. Look, I would love nothing more if the Niners continue to advance and then lose to the Bears, but if I can't get the Bears in the Super Bowl, I'd really like the Niners because it's basically my only, my only future left after everyone else has been bounced out. So that's your dream scenario.
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B
If you can get, if you're a Bears fan, you can get the Niners at home in late February and when it's one degree out. Yeah.
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A
Although to be honest, I've seen that movie, you know, when the Bears had won the super bowl the next year, I think it was the next year, the year after we get the Niners in January in the NFC title game and we lost like 27 to 3. I was at that game. It was cold.
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B
That Joe Montana.
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A
It must have been Montana. Yeah, it had to have been.
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B
There you go.
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A
Can't beat him. Sunday, January 18, 3pm Eastern. Houston is visiting the New England Patriots. The total is three or the. The spread is New England three, totals 41. It opened at two and a half. It's still a two and a half. A lot of books jumped up at Hard Rock at this point. Simon, how much are we coaching handicap or handicapping coaching in the playoffs? Because right now no one is better at this than Mike Framel. Like, there's nobody. The guy just has this team locked in and understands exactly what they're great at and then how to get the most out of them. Hard team. Hard team to bet against right now.
- [30:02]
B
Yeah, I hate this game because immediately it's like I, I feel like again, if we were coming off a hot streak, I would be hammering this game. But Texans plus three, a total of 40. I could not believe the total was that high or the Texas were plus three and they said a game I'll be patient on because we were so early in the week here. I don't need to make a planet yet. But yeah, it's. I mean, we just talked about Drake May. That Chargers team was going to be the best defense he had faced this season. You saw him struggle. The Texans are a level way above that Chargers team. This is another level we're going up here with this Texas team defensively. So as much as people are just crushing CJ coming off that game we talked about, that's. That's the Pittsburgh voodoo, baby. That, like, that game was going just according to plan. A guy, I think they should have said he might have three fumbles in his career and he had two in a quarter. Like, that's just what happens when you get to Pittsburgh. I don't know if it's the same type of voodoo in the Patriots. And, you know, if Christian Gonzalez is playing, if Nikos Collins is playing, okay, I guess they can't see each other out. They both might miss this game. Yeah, that's true. I think that favorites Houston, where you've seen Higgins, Christian Kirk, he can do it with these random receivers because the design of their play is they find these huge gaps and that's what CJ's strength is, right? Pushing the ball downfield to these guys streaking wide open. And you know, the Patriots now lose the number one corner. I feel like that's a way bigger deal than them losing Nico Collins. I've just seen C.J. be able to make other guys be number one ones. Where Pedro's defense, we've talked about it. Gonzalez shuts down half a field like he is exactly what you look for in a number one corner. So big, big injury watch here for these, both these teams. But yeah, the stats people know, I think we gave our last week Drake May New England as a favorite three points or more. Drake made his career 3110 straight up 9 and 2 against the spread. And like we said before, that's against, we think poor competition. We don't really buy into that. And you know, we ate it last week. But that was really about Herbert not showing up. I mean, his defense held them to 16 points. Herbert gave us a nothing in burger. I don't see CJ having two really bad games in a row. And my, my fear is that I gave you out those numbers last week, cj. That was his first road win. I think I was Houston's first win on the road. Texans organizationally, right. That was the first time and I think seven tries Houston had been on the road and they lost every time. They finally broke through and I know they were A sleepy pick for a lot of people on super bowl run. Because of the defense. I think it's another spot here where it's like, okay, the better defense with the better quarterback is a dog. I mean, coaching level, I know we have a lot of props of Rabel. I don't think it's that he's that big of a gap. The Miko Ryan is a genius to me, especially defensively. So, yeah, like I said, I'm not trying to fall into a trap here again because it's like, I can't believe they're giving us plus three. I want to talk to other pros, see what they're seeing here, but my early inclination, even I should say what I'm betting right now. I've already bet the plus three and I bet the under right away. But I. I will let you know on Thursday if I'm missing something here. If, you know, I'm walking right into it once again. But I could not believe it. I couldn't believe they opened Houston at this big of a dog. It's to me, one and a half, two. That made sense here. So that's why I'm just not going to put a ton into it because just I'm worried that there's something I'm missing here. It feels too easy. Chad.
- [33:20]
A
Yeah, I. I'm baffled by this line. I'm baffled by this game. It's a really hard one to figure out. What you just said about the Steelers when CJ Was throwing that interception again in the red zone towards the goal line, I was thinking to myself, this is classic Steelers football. Muck it up, muck it up, muck it up. Whatever Tomlin does, he's so patient as a coach. I think Vrabel is a brilliant coach, too, but I don't know that the Patriots have the same defensive weapons across the board that the Steelers do. They were getting a really good pass rush on CJ that was screwing up a lot of what he was trying to do. Really tough game. I definitely like the under more than I like the side at this point. So I'm curious to see how the sharp calls go on Thursday and we'll get a better sense of what people are saying about this game. Let's get a quick word from our friends at Hard Rock bet. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock bet. With Miami making the national championship, you know Hard Rock Stadium will be rocking. And if you're going to the game, Hard Rock BET is giving you a $10 bonus bet to get in in on the action if you're watching the game out in Miami, head to the Hard Rock Cafe, Miami, Duffy's North Miami Beach, American Social Miami, and Batch Brickell. Hard Rock bat is dropping $10 bonus bets there too. You can turn that free 10 bonus bet into a big win by placing the same game parlay. Or even if you're just watching the game at home, there's still no better place to bet the Natty than Hard Hard Rock Bet because it's Florida Sportsbook, so they're going crazy with promos for this one. If you haven't tried your first bet on Hard Rock Bet, there's still time for you to get $150 in bonus bets. If you win, just place a five dollar bet and if it hits you get not only your winnings but also an extra $150 in bonus bets. Even if your team may be out of the playoffs, that doesn't mean you have to sit on the sidelines between same game parlays, live betting, a can't miss welcome offer, and new promos dropping every day. Hard Rock Bet has you covered all postseason long. That's Hard Rock Bet. Download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit today. Payable and bonus bets. Not a cash offer Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida. Offered by Seminole hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states. Must be 21 or over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1833-playwise in Indiana. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9 with it gambling problem call 1-800- gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee and Virginia.
- [36:14]
B
Lines and tines with Spencer Graves on the iHeartRadio app is a podcast designed for hunters and fishermen to enjoy success. I like the idea of like, hey, put me on a big deer. You know, hey, there's a big deer out here. He's doing this. Be looking for this deer. But I also love doing it on my own. I love going out there and saying running my cameras. I love patterning the deer. I like showing up at the right time, checking the wind, knowing what stand I need to be in. And then whenever it all comes together and it happens, that's the most satisfying thing ever. So when you do it on your own, it's like I then can hang my hat. But if I had somebody say hey, pull up on these dots and catch them right here and you're gonna win. And then when I go in, it's like, yeah, it's cool. I won the tournament. The ultimate goal is done. But it's like, dude, when you find them and you make them bite, that's the puzzle. I love it.
- [37:07]
A
Listen to Lines and Tines with Spencer.
- [37:09]
B
Graves on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your ear podcast.
- [37:16]
A
Hi, I'm Danny Shapiro, host of the hit podcast Family Secrets.
- [37:20]
B
We were in the car like a rolling stone came on and he said, there's a line in there about your mother. And I said, what?
- [37:27]
A
What I would do if I didn't.
- [37:28]
B
Feel like I was being accepted is choose an identity that other people can't have.
- [37:33]
A
I knew something had happened to me in the middle of the night, but I couldn't hold on to what had happened. These are just a few of the moving and important stories I'll be holding space for on my upcoming 13th season of Family Secrets. Whether you've been on this journey with me from season one or just joining the Family Secrets family, we're so happy to have you with us. I'll dive deep into the incredible power of secrets, the ones that shape our identities, test our relationships, and ultimately reveal who we truly are. Listen to Family secrets on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On June 11, 1998, a deputy from the Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department went missing. It's an all out manhunt for John Ajay. Every search and rescue team in LA county has been called in to help. Within days, tips started flooding into the sheriff's door department. They ruler around the drug scene. Was that a deputy was taken care of? Is this the story of a man who just got lost in the desert or of a cover up inside the nation's largest sheriff's department?
- [38:46]
B
A homicide captain saying detective, do not.
- [38:50]
A
Find out if this guy's guilty or innocent. Who does that? Valley of Shadows, a new series from Pushkin Industries about crime and corruption in California's high desert. Do you have any advice for us while looking into this disappearance? I wouldn't do it alone.
- [39:09]
B
Listen to Valley of shadows on the.
- [39:11]
A
Iheartradio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [39:18]
B
Hey everyone, it's Ed Helms and I'm Kal Penn and we are the hosts of Irsay The Audible and iHeart Audiobook Club. This week on the podcast I am talking to film and TV critic, radio and podcast host and Harry Potter super fan Rhianna Dillon to discuss Audible's full cast adaptation of Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone. What moments in this audiobook capture the feeling of the magical world best for you or just stood out the most? I always loved reading about the Quidditch matches and and I think the audio really gets it because it just plunges you right into the stands. You have the crowd sounds like all around you is surround sound, especially if you're listening in headphones. Listen to Earsay, the Audible and iHeart Audio Book Club on the iHeartradio app.
- [40:11]
A
Or wherever you get your podcasts. The Main event the NFL knew I knew when they were like teasing at the end of the game last night what the schedule was going to be. They could have just said whatever the schedule is, we know the Bears are going to be in the prime time Sunday spot because the country is enamored with midwestern football right now. The country is enamored with the Chicago Bears.
- [40:45]
B
Chicago, Chicago that title in town. Chicago, Chicago I will show you around.
- [40:56]
A
I love it. The country is loving the accents from Chicago, the kitsch of Chicago, the characters of Chicago. The way this team is lighting a fire under the city and connecting with this with Whitney City right now is amazing. They're four point home underdogs against the Los Angeles Rams. The total is 50 and a half. Stafford is going into the cold with the sprained finger. He said it's fine. The line moved from four to three and a half back up to four. The betting percentage is heavy on the Bear so it's hard for me to know right now. Simon, is this wise guy money? Is it just the public coming in on the Bears? I feel like we've said this 13 times this season. Is it a sell high spot for the Bears? I don't know man. I don't know. My my inclination is honestly the Rams because it just feels like when everything is zigging we have to zag. But then I don't want that to be the reason why I'm doing it.
- [42:07]
B
No. And I've had a couple of blast about should you should I just throw my model in in the playoffs? Because yeah it's like Moneyball. Is it built for the regular season and try to explain to him no, I'm not picking the worst players at the cheapest price and trying to make it work. It's nothing like Moneyball. It's I should do well in the playoffs. That was a total outliner anomaly. This game scares the of me though just because like last week I had the Rams as way big favorite. Same here. I have them at seven and a half point favorites here in the model. I'm like you, I don't feel that way at all. If this was seven and a half, I'd be hammering the Bears.
- [42:41]
A
Yeah.
- [42:41]
B
Kidding me. And first glance at this number, it's like with Bears, all their games are close. Whether they win or lose, they keep their games close. Like, shouldn't I just be grabbing this one? And we talk all the time about playoffs. You're looking for unique spots. And this defines as one my first unique spot of the day. Bears home underdog, wild card round, not divisional round. You remember the last time that happened, Chad?
- [43:07]
A
No.
- [43:10]
B
The Eagles, they beat, they beat Atlanta with Nick Foles and they beat the Vikings Case Keenum at home. I mean, so that's, that's we're talking about historical here. Like these one sees these two seeds, they're just never home dogs in these rounds. And you know, I, if I was a Bears fan or a backer, it's like, well, good. No one believes in us. Unfortunately for you guys. Chad just told you every. Everybody's believing you because we've all seen those numbers, the reports, right? It's supposed to be an arctic freeze. I mean Stafford, like you just had on a bad finger in, in the cold, hard to grip a ball already now with a bad finger. That, that has to be a big deal. So I, I am lost with this one. I will give you unfortunately, another good Stafford status. Stafford, unique in the sense that he has never lost a playoff game as a favorite in his career. So he's 4. 0 in his career straight up as a favorite. That's going back to 2000. That's the best mark of any quarterback in the NFL. Like no one's been better in the playoffs as a favorite than Stafford, which to me when I looked that up was shocking because it's like we just think of him wasting 10 years in Detroit and like those are all, that's all Rams numbers. So it just shows him and McVeigh as favorites. They've earned it, right? The books, they know what they do. Give them that type of, that type of padding. Especially like last week, that was crazy looking back that they were a 10 and a half point favorite. But it's a tough one to get a read on. So, you know, another game, I'll be patient on the side in the total where, you know, if it is an arctic blast, if it is zero degrees and they're hanging a 50, I mean if we want to combat the magic that is Caleb Williams, maybe we just go the first half under right. I mean, 26. Get. Get away from what we know Caleb can do, which is light a team up in the second half. And we've seen this Rams team, they give up big plays just like we saw with Bryce Young.
- [44:58]
A
Totally.
- [44:59]
B
I mean, even. Even against bad teams like Arizona, they had moments where they had wide open guys streaking out against them. They just. They are susceptible. They don't have a good number two corner.
- [45:08]
A
So play with their food.
- [45:09]
B
They do just do. It's really a great number hung by the books because if they hung it too high, I think they would have been showing their hand here a little bit. I really think they hung a perfect number here. So Chad said, I think early. Early money, public and professionals, they'll come in on the Bears. I think people like me that do want to take the Rams potentially. Maybe I just see if I can get a three if the books are nice enough. But at the end of the day, if it just. If I can't do better than three and a half, I'll have to bite the bullet. But I honestly want to be on the Bears. But I'm just give me a reason. Give me a reason, please. I got to find it. I got to talk to some pros and see if there's a. If they're smart, smart reason to be on this bear similar than what we just talked about, which is all their games are close, but this is. At what point do they run into an actual legit contender, which is this what this Rams team is? So it is tough for me right here. And I've also had a couple people. What's it like backing teams off, miracles through it. There's not a laugh like from my own personal experience, I just told you about that Vikings game. The Vikings. That was the digs against the city.
- [46:10]
A
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
- [46:11]
B
I guess there's a letdown after the miracle game, but I don't think that's.
- [46:15]
A
Applicable for this team because every game is a miracle.
- [46:19]
B
You can say that, Chad. You guys reacted like, holy, we just won the Super Bowl. I mean, let's be serious here. Come on. You got.
- [46:27]
A
Yeah, but we reacted the same way the other time we beat the packers and we've reacted the same way when we beat your coach Raiders.
- [46:33]
B
Taking a shirt off and falling over himself on the field the last time he beat the Packer.
- [46:37]
A
Oh, he got knocked down.
- [46:39]
B
Yeah. He couldn't even.
- [46:40]
A
He got back up again. Never gonna let you down.
- [46:44]
B
Like I said, I wanna, I want to find a reason to buy, buy this bearish team. But right now I am leaning heavy towards this Rams team.
- [46:50]
A
Look the type. The total is ticked down from 52 to 50 and a half. I would grab that under. It's gonna be.
- [46:57]
B
Do you think it is gonna be like Arctic blast what they're predicting?
- [46:59]
A
I just looked at the weather right now. It's predicted to be a high of 18 and a low of 9.
- [47:04]
B
That's cold.
- [47:05]
A
So I would, I would grab the under. That's the highest total we're seeing of the weekend so far. It's going to be a night game in Chicago. It is going to be bitter, bitter, ice cold. I would not be surprised. Definitely like the under in the first half.
- [47:20]
B
Like, yeah, that's, that's only been on.
- [47:23]
A
When we get off this call being conservative for sure. So, yeah, I'm going to, I'm going to grab that one too. But yeah, I don't, I don't know that we have a consensus on this one.
- [47:31]
B
I like, again, these are good lines. Both those last two games are really, really tough lines. Chicago, Chicago, Chicago. That's my hometown.
- [47:51]
A
All right, so right now, just to recap a little bit, Simon says, was Denver plus one. Grab it because it's to going. Going to flip to Denver minus one. Chad is on the Panthers. I mean, not the Panthers, on the Seahawks and the Niners under 45 and a half. Simon also likes San Francisco plus seven and a half. I think we're most tempted by unders right now in these games. We're going to need more conversation about Houston as an underdog and the Bears as an underdog.
- [48:21]
B
Any trends if that, if that holds true. I know wild card round. The trend is obviously the owners. I don't, I don't know about divisional round. I'll try to find out more info on that as well.
- [48:28]
A
We're tempted by the love.
- [48:30]
B
We're like 40 to the unders this week.
- [48:32]
A
We like the unders and we like the under first half in the Bears ramp. So go grab that when you're done listening. Before we go, any initial bets on Indiana and Miami? The line opened seven and a half. It's now up to nine. Indiana minus nine in the national title game. Anything you're here, anything you like. Ooh, Kurt Zagnetti. Nothing gets people excited like winning. It's pretty simple.
- [48:59]
B
I win.
- [49:01]
A
Google me.
- [49:08]
B
I mean, you know, I'm a sucker for history. So I would say the pros obviously hammered the 7 when it opened. Not a shocker. The Hoosiers, like you said, it's now moved almost two points. A couple books. It's popping nine. I'm going to take the adjusted line. Like I've already bet the -13 and a half on the Hoosiers. It just feels like if they're going to win this game, it's just what they've been doing. They're going to roll and blow out this team. And I'm sorry to say, Chad, I'm definitely throwing a bet on the. The Hurricanes money line. Like this is David and Goliath and. Which is crazy to think but you guys are going for. Is it 170 or 16 0?
- [49:42]
A
16 0.
- [49:43]
B
Never been done. So they are going after history with a quarterback that you know playing at the highest level you can imagine. I know the comp for him is Sam Bradford. He's Sam Bradford with 25 pounds of muscle and much wider shoulders. Like every. I just.
- [49:59]
A
I'm.
- [50:00]
B
I'm falling in love with Mendoza kid. So it's tough for me to say this Hurricane. The Hurricane things, but I figure the same way we've all seen this movie before, right? So.
- [50:08]
A
Yeah.
- [50:09]
B
Can they have a moment against the bestie line they're going to face all season? Yeah. I'm excited for our Thursday show here. What the pros are saying. But from the pros I've heard they're. They're the guys who have hammered the Scoosiers team. They've been on it all playoff run. They've been on this team and they love them. And there's other pros who are just laying in the grass waiting. Give us the 10 on the Hurricanes that they're all saying. They said let the. Let the public keep betting this up. Let all the parlays and the teasers from Sunday and Saturday tie in with the Hoosiers money line. Get this up to 10. So every. Every pro I know that likes the Hurricanes are being super patient and they're like me. It's like at what point you have to go the other side. But like I said, if the Hoosiers win this game, it feels like they roll and they blow out. They're just not a team that plays with their food like we've talked about other teams, they. They roll you, they dominate you and they. They put their full weight on you. So great. Great number by the books.
- [50:56]
A
Every time they have the ball at 00 every. Single.
- [51:00]
B
So true.
- [51:01]
A
That's the signetti way. All right. This has been sharper square part of the volume podcast network. We will be back on Thursday with more of the sides, more of the totals that we're finally zeroing in on. We'll do our head to head battle. Brass ball. So much more. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Also download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate. Review. Subscribe. Leave us. Five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.
- [51:31]
B
The road to the super bowl. Filled with unexpected twists and turns, detours and shattering collisions. But the final prize makes the trip worthwhile.
- [51:47]
A
This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.