NFL Schedule Release PART 1 with Warren Sharp

Summary

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Sharp or Square – NFL Schedule Release PART 1 with Warren Sharp

Podcast: Sharp or Square
Episode Date: May 21, 2026
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Guest: Warren Sharp

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Episode Overview

This episode kicks off a two-part deep dive into the 2026 NFL schedule release, focusing on analyzing the league’s evolving approach to primetime matchups, schedule construction, rest advantages/disadvantages, and strategic implications for teams and bettors. Hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter are joined by renowned football data analyst Warren Sharp, whose book release is also highlighted with a special promo for listeners.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The New NFL Schedule Philosophy

• The NFL has radically shifted its scheduling approach, focusing more on maximizing viewership and broadcast revenue rather than balancing parity or giving every team primetime exposure.
• Simon opens with enthusiasm for the improved primetime schedule:
  “There’s like two, maybe three bad prime time games the entire season. Where most fans remember Thursdays were the throwaway—bet it, forget it, make some money if you’re lucky. But don’t, you don’t need to watch…” (07:35)
• Warren Sharp explains:
  “They are basically taking all the games…running them through their models and figuring out at which position will we get the highest total viewership across all 272 games.” (08:28)
• This data-driven scheduling leads to stronger games in standalone national windows, but at the expense of team equity or fairness.

2. Broadcasting, Conspiracy, and the Primetime “Auction”

• NFL is treating each game as a “free agent,” auctioning off premium matchups to the highest bidder among broadcasters and streaming services, such as Netflix or Prime.
• More elite QBs and competitive matchups fill primetime, and previous goals like “every team gets a primetime game” are phased out.
• Warren notes:
  “Every single game is a free agent. Now…we’re selling these games not based on just arbitrary rivalries…but…where will we get the most total eyeballs…” (09:25)
• Simon jokes about fan conspiracy theories regarding schedule design:
  “Guess who’s the first Monday night game of the year? The Chiefs, Denver. …You don’t think the league thinks about those types of things?” (14:36)

3. Schedule Difficulty vs. Rest Advantage – Key Metrics for Bettors

• Rest Advantage/Disadvantage:
  Warren has pioneered metrics quantifying which teams benefit from more rest than their opponents, which has subtle but real impacts throughout a season.
• Chicago Bears:
  • Despite having one of the NFL’s hardest schedules (6th toughest, per Sharp’s win-total metric), the Bears also have the absolute best net rest advantage (+15 days, most in the league).
  • Warren:
    “They are plus 15 net days of rest, which is best in the NFL… play some of their most critical opponents with a rest advantage…” (20:36)
  • Notably, Bears have performed much better ATS when not at a rest disadvantage:

    “If they played since 2020 with a rest deficit of at least three days…0-9 straight up, 1-8 ATS…But without a rest disadvantage…55% ATS.” (22:51)

• Rest metrics matter, but:
  • Warren cautions:
    “Strength of schedule of your opponents is going to drive more than rest edges…[but] rest edges are smaller, more abstract…harder to calculate, which is part of the reason the NFL just has the opinion…rest doesn’t matter at all.” (16:02)

4. Divisional Scheduling and the Impact of Media Revenue

• The NFL is prioritizing marquee teams and high-stakes divisional matchups, often putting less popular or less competitive franchises at a disadvantage when it comes to national exposure or rest.
• Chad:
  “They are trying to maximize dollars. …be the elephant in the room and dictate what the terms are going to be for their future broadcast partners… they don’t really care what the public response is…” (12:12)

5. Team-Specific Deep Dives

Chicago Bears

• High rest advantage but extremely tough slate by future-focused metrics.
• Past data: tough schedules lead to playoff misses for most teams in this spot.
• Simon’s wise guy advice:
  “As a wise guy, they’re an easy fade. Right…the first year head coach overachieved. …Now you’re in a first-place schedule. It’s—they’re an easy fade.” (19:36)

Philadelphia Eagles

• Have a very difficult rest disadvantage (31st, -15 net days) despite an easier slate of opponents.
• Key stat:
  “They are playing six opponents having over seven days to prepare for them…” (30:52)
• Eagles have historically underperformed ATS in rest-disadvantaged games:

  “Since 2015, when they’ve played with a rest disadvantage of at least three days, they are 7–14–1 straight up and ATS, recording a minus 36% ROI…” (33:23)

Schedule Internationalization and League Priorities

• The NFL, under Roger Goodell, is following the NBA’s playbook in expanding internationally (e.g., starting NFC West games in Australia, continued UK presence).
• Simon:
  “It’s entertainment…NBA sending Jordan to France in the 90s jumped that sport 50 years ahead of football internationally…they’re trying to catch up…” (36:03)
• Chad reflects on Goodell’s priorities:
  “I feel like he’s entered the Dana White managing the UFC phase…doesn’t really care about what fans may think individually. He’s about how am I going to maximize revenue…” (34:29)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Schedule Construction:
  • Warren: “It is not about trying to make balance. ...Now it’s about total eyeballs on the league.” (10:18)
• On Rest vs. Schedule Strength:
  • Warren: “Who you play ... is definitely more impactful in terms of your ability to win games than when you play those teams.” (16:02)
• On Eagles’ Rest Disadvantage:
  • Warren: “The Philadelphia Eagles ranked 31st in net rest at minus 15 days, exact opposite of the Chicago Bears.” (30:52)
• On International Growth:
  • Simon: “It’s going to be an international sport before we know it.” (37:54)
• On the NFL’s Recent Priorities:
  • Chad: “...have really just gone all in on making this the most entertaining bloodsport possible for the rest of us.” (34:29)
• On League’s Transparency:
  • Simon: “He’s the punching bag for the owner. None of these ideas are his.” (35:50)
• Fan Conspiracy Theories:
  • Simon: “I love all this behind-the-scenes conspiracy theory about the league, because a lot of it feels pretty true.” (15:09)

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Important Timestamps

• [02:02] Podcast proper begins; Chad and Simon banter, pivoting into NFL schedule talk.
• [05:16] Warren Sharp introduction.
• [07:35] Discussion on primetime scheduling overhaul.
• [08:28] Warren details the NFL's data-driven approach to schedule modeling.
• [12:12] Chad analogizes schedule analysis to win-total roadmapping.
• [14:36] Fan conspiracy theories about league priorities.
• [16:02] Strength of schedule vs. rest advantage.
• [19:36] Simon’s wise guy perspective on fading the Bears.
• [20:36] Warren’s in-depth Bears analysis: rest vs. schedule, relevant statistics.
• [30:52] Breakdown of Eagles’ rest disadvantage.
• [33:23] ATS impact of rest disadvantage for the Eagles.
• [34:29] Chad on Goodell’s evolving priorities and mindset.
• [36:03] International growth discussion.
• [37:54] NBA vs. NFL internationalization.

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Episode Tone & Style

• Interactive, analytic, and occasionally irreverent: Banter between Chad and Simon keeps the episode accessible, while Warren brings a forensic, numbers-driven breakdown.
• Practical for bettors: Insights and trends are always tied back to actionable takeaways for those considering win totals, futures, or fading public teams.

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Summary

Part 1 of Sharp or Square’s NFL schedule release special dissects how the NFL’s new media paradigm is shaping everything from primetime TV slates to the fundamental fairness of each team’s schedule. Not only does Warren Sharp’s data highlight the divergence between rest advantage and pure strength-of-schedule, but the discussion underscores how teams like the Bears and Eagles exemplify the winners and losers in this new era. Fans and bettors alike are urged to look deeper—beyond just win-loss records—at the web of incentives and calculations behind the calendar, with actionable insights for the 2026 season.

Stay tuned for Part 2, continuing this incisive breakdown.

Transcript

[Debbie Brown]

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[Warren Sharp]

Hey, guys, it's us, the Jonas Brothers.

[Chad Millman]

I'm Joe.

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I'm Kevin.

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And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called hey Jonas.

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We invented a podcast.

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Well, we didn't invent it.

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We.

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We just contributed to it.

[Joe Jonas]

We're the first people to do podcasts.

[Kevin Jonas]

We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions.

[Nick Jonas]

Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it, but, you know, tired and sick. Tired and sick.

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Listen to hey Jonas on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Just listen.

[Joe Jonas]

We don't care where you hear it.

[Edwin Castro]

Hey, it's Edwin Castro, also known as Castro 1021. And I'm Conky, his best friend and business manager. And we've got a new show called the 1021 Pod. I'm taking you behind the scenes on how I became one of Twitch's most popular streamers. We also love sports, and with the World cup right around the corner, we'll be breaking down the biggest storylines ahead of the big tournament here in the USA. Listen to the 1021 podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Carlos King]

If you're watching the latest season of the Real Housewives of Atlanta, you already know there's a lot to break.

Portia accusing Kelly of sleeping with a married man. They holding K. Michelle back from fighting. Drew Pinky has financial issues on the

podcast Reality with the King. I, Carlos King, recap the biggest moments from your favorite reality shows, including the Real Housewives franchise, the drama, the alliances, and the tea everybody's talking about. To hear this and more, listen to Reality with the king on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

[Simon Hunter]

Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rock Bat.

[Chad Millman]

We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention.

[Simon Hunter]

I am Chad Millman. I am joined as always by my

[Chad Millman]

co host, my companion, my compadre, my

[Simon Hunter]

bff, Professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.

Chad. How we doing?

[Chad Millman]

It's a great time of year, buddy. Listen, have you noticed a couple weeks ago I was asking you about Donnie Baseball taking over the Phils and how that could be the spark that they need and you were taking a very Philly fan approach. It's all bad. The pitching sucks. The bullpen socks were too old. Philadelphia Phillies, 15 and 4 Since Donnie Baseball took over.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, it might be as good as it gets, but I'll take it. It was, it's been a fun ride. It's been crazy. And Schwarber as someone that just, you know, again, it's the old saying, Chad. Chicks dig the long ball. It's, it's the best. Who doesn't just love home runs and the sound he makes when he hits the ball long and every game, it's, it's one of the few players in MLB now you have to watch. Like, if you know he's coming up the next inning, you got to put off whatever. You can't leave yet. You got to just stay and wait. And he delivers like, I got 20 home runs. I can't get over it. So, yeah, pretty, pretty insane, the turnaround. And, yeah, Wheeler came back healthy. Nice pitching.

[Chad Millman]

Well.

[Simon Hunter]

And it's, it's all clicking right now for Philadelphia. Like I said, though, it was April we've talked about now it's mid May. It's a long, It's a long, long season.

[Chad Millman]

Hey, you know where Kyle Schwarber went to college?

[Simon Hunter]

Oh, yeah. He is a Hoosier guy. Yeah.

[Chad Millman]

Indiana beat everybody. Indiana.

[Simon Hunter]

No, I, I, I, I, I remember he was, he was at the same game you went to, right? He was at the Georgia game I was at.

[Chad Millman]

It was in, you mean in Georgia? I was at the, at the Oregon game.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. At the Georgia Dome. So, yeah, you're right. It's. You guys. A billion alumni. And he is one of them.

[Chad Millman]

We do. You know, it's funny, I'm wearing this shirt today and I like, the IU journalism school has asked me to review some. Like, they're just thinking about changes to make to the program or whatever. And I'm looking at some of them and some of the things they say are like, we did very well in audience with our school newspaper digitally here, and we made a lot of money in commemorative here. And I'm like, I wonder how much of that has to do with football. You know what I mean?

[Simon Hunter]

Because Indiana football school now, people, let's go.

[Chad Millman]

We're a football school. Whatever you can do to do more football coverage, lean in to that, which is what we're doing today. Simon, because we've been jonesing to talk about the NFL schedule release which came out last week, we're diving deeply into it across two episodes with the Help of a very special returning guest. Longtime football data obsessive, the head honcho

[Simon Hunter]

at Sharp Football Analysis.

[Chad Millman]

His new book is always a must read. Welcome back to the show, Warren Sharp.

[Warren Sharp]

Thanks for having me, gentlemen. Yeah, I was listening to last year's show when we previewed the 2025 schedule. We got a lot of things right there and it was interesting to discuss. I felt like the league was doing a little bit of a better job with the schedule last year. This year as reverse course, we're going to get into that. It's always a fun time because we do have these two months before all the training camps officially open. Hit the schedule right now. And Roger loves to try to fill up the calendar with NFL related tent poles and things that we need to be talking about. So we're going to feed the evil machine a little while here.

[Chad Millman]

Nothing evil about it, brother. We want as much football as we can possibly get. It's the most exciting sport to watch. It fills our heart with joy. It's when we get the most action. We couldn't be happier. And you, because you're so gracious and because you know how much our fans love your book and how much we talk about your preseason annual publication, you are giving listeners of the show a $35 book for $1. All they have to do is use the code. Hold up the book, Warren. Let them see it. $1. Use the code, Chad. Go to Sharp Football. Look at that. Look at all that intel, the graphics that you're getting in this fabulous book that Warren kills himself to put out to make all of us smarter. Thanks, Warren. You, thanks for coming on the show and thanks for giving away the book for one freaking dollar. That's a $35 book for a dollar. I can tell you right now, I'm not doing that with my book. So that is totally classy, Warren.

[Warren Sharp]

I appreciate it and I appreciate all your listeners and followers who love the show. Hopefully this will help them get prepared for the season and I'll be slaving away working for the next two months to try to get it ready for everybody.

[Chad Millman]

We're going to get into all the glory of the schedule. Simon, I know you want to get it, Warren, real quickly about some of the primetime scheduling stuff.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, I would love to know just your view on you've been doing this a long time. If this is the first notable time you've seen the league make a major effort to make. All these people are about to spend a ton of money on getting league contracts for TV rights. All these prime time games. Like it's, there's like two, maybe three bad prime time games the entire season. Where most fans remember Thursdays were the throwaway Thursdays you would get seven or eight. You don't need to watch tonight, right? Bet it, forget it, make some money if you're lucky. But don't, you don't need to watch this game. I, I love what they've done. I'm kind of with Chad. I know it's some people view it as evil because some teams have such disadvantages, including the Eagles. I love it like all the best games, standalone games, best quarterbacks. This is literally been my dream since I was very young. Like this is what I want the NFL to be. So I'd love to get your view on. Is this, are we making this up or is this a real thing going on right now? The league?

[Warren Sharp]

Warren no, this is definitely a real thing. First of all, I'm like you remembering the how they used to do color rush uniforms to try to make people want to watch. What is this team going to look like when they wear all mustard colored uniforms? I got better turn into this terrible Thursday night game to check it out. Now that's not an issue at all. So having listened to Mike north and his other scheduling assistants and these are guys that create the schedule for the NFL vice president of scheduling and some of the interviews that they've had immediately after they release the schedule, it is very clear the way that they are doing their modeling to develop the schedule in 2026. They are basically taking all the games. We know that there's 272 games. These are known in January when the season ends and they are saying they're running them through their models and figuring out at which position will we get the highest total viewership across all 272games. Where should we stick this game? Where should we stick that game? Where should we stick this other game? Let's run all the permutations to figure out the network will get the most total eyeballs to watch 20, 26 NFL games. Once they get a schedule that will basically hit that while staying within the guardrails, then they can go to your Netflix, your prime networks and things of that nature. And you can basically try to auction off these games to the highest bidders. They said every single game is a free agent. Now we're going to try to package them if certain networks or groups or broadcasters want them packaged, we'll try to pick games, but they're selling these games not based on just arbitrary oh yeah, you've got Patrick Mahomes going up against Justin Herbert. We think this game on this particular Thursday night will get X million people watching it. How valuable is that to you? And that is how they're producing the schedule now. It is not about trying to make balance. Remember, that's why we were in the color rush situation. Every team's got to have a primetime game. We want to try to spread it all around. And now it's about total eyeballs on the league. And you know, from, from a pure fan perspective, I don't disagree with your opinion. The only caveat I would have to say is the Wednesday night before Thanksgiving. You know, as a content creator, in addition to just working, that is a tough game to like. That's the time you're trying to get ready for Thanksgiving. Historically, that was the time. So I don't love introducing that game ahead of the great slate of games on Thanksgiving. But to your overall point, this is the best slate of games that I can remember on holidays and in primetime in general. They have definitely made a massive effort to just ratchet up everything as it relates to the stakes in these games. The teams that are playing in these games and just putting teams in game after game after game. If they think they're going to be good, they're doing calculations in terms of determining if these games are going to be good and drive eyeballs based upon what they think is the best teams that are going to be playing. So they have to do calculations here in like March and April and after the draft is to figure out which teams they think are going to be the best, and then they're going to take those teams and figure out which. How they can pair them together on these primetime games. So there's a lot of calculations that the league is doing, but very few of those calculations are trying to make parity amongst the teams that are being represented on these primetime games. It's all about driving viewership by the end of the season.

[Chad Millman]

It's an interesting exercise, the way you frame that the NFL is trying to, for lack of a better term, handicap who the best teams are going to be at the end of the season. So if you were trying to build out a season win total betting roadmap, you could do worse than incorporating how the NFL is building its schedule, which, by the way, it is an entirely different philosophy. They are trying to maximize dollars. They are trying to take advantage of their ability to be sort of the elephant in the room and dictate what terms are going to be for their Future broadcast partners. And, and they don't really care what the public response is. They don't really care what the political response is. They don't really care what the legislative response is. They're looking to maximize the dollars, which is how we as fans are getting these great matchups. And if this is what they think that the best teams are going to be. Simon, how much do we think about that? I've never really considered that the schedule as a, for lack of a better term, you know, key performance indicator. When I'm building out a roadmap for

[Simon Hunter]

handicapping, I, I do in a sense that it's certain teams, you want to take a position against them because of it.

[Warren Sharp]

Right.

[Simon Hunter]

We've always talked about it's been easier to fade the Cowboys historically because their fans do usually just bet the Rovers, that's one thing. But just the TV schedule alone is brutal. I mean we joked about last year. I think they had like three Thursday games. They had a really bizarre scenario during their season last year and that did catch up to them. Right. Think of all the injuries they had. Right. They just didn't have the bodies to replace that because it's, it's a grueling season and there's two teams we're going to touch on the one here that like really jump out to me of teams. It's going to be interesting to see how this, the season affects them because they have such horrible schedules. And like we talked about this, this league, this new world we're entering of this prime Netflix type of world chat. It's, it's great for fans because we don't need these color rush games. But yes, some of these teams, you know, like the Rams, seven prime time games because of what their quarterback got mvp, they don't really have a home field advantage. The league wants to take advantage of that. Right. Like if they can put them in prime time games, it doesn't matter. They're not going to have the stadium filled with their fans anyway at 1 o'.

[Carlos King]

Clock.

[Simon Hunter]

Might as well put them in a prime time game. That, that's an organization that's happy to play in those primetime games. So yeah, it's my favorite message I got from a ton of fans who are just conspiracy theories. Chad was guess who's the first Monday night game of the year? The Chiefs, Denver. Two teams that need as much time as they can get. I know it's just one day, but people said that right away where it's like you don't think the league thinks about those type of things, right? Why not give Bo Nix Mahomes as much time as you possibly can to try to get them in for week one. So I, I love all this behind the scenes conspiracy theory about the league because a lot of it feels pretty true.

[Chad Millman]

Trev Warren we're going to dig into a bunch of teams right off the top. There's an interesting disparity to me because one of your great stats that you've created is sort of rest advantage, where teams are getting a rest advantage over their opponents throughout the course of the season. Schedule winners in that category, Chicago and Buffalo. What's interesting is that the Bears, according to traditional metrics, which is aggregating last season's win percentage, actually have one of the hardest schedules in the NFL. So which wins out? Rest advantage or the hardest schedule in the NFL?

[Warren Sharp]

To me, just across the board, strength of schedule of your opponents is going to drive more than rest edges. So rest edges are smaller, they're a little bit more abstract, sometimes harder to calculate, which is part of the reason why the NFL just has this opinion in general and they're leaning even more into it right now that rest doesn't matter at all. And so if you say that rest doesn't matter, then you can have carte blanche to do whatever you want with the schedule. You could stick a team have seven games where they're at a rest deficit and another team in the league who has zero games where they're at a rest deficit. You could do whatever you want if you say rest doesn't matter. So that's what the league has pivoted into. I definitely don't agree with that theory, but at the same time, who you play, which the league has no control over, is definitely more impactful in terms of your ability to win games than when you play those teams.

[Chad Millman]

What do you mean has no control over the league has entire control over who you play. Are you saying who you play on that particular Sunday? Not necessarily what the schedule looks like in May.

[Warren Sharp]

Right. So the strength of schedule of your opponents is completely obviously dictated by where you finish week 18, where your standing was. That assigns your three opponents in the other divisions within your conference. You rotate playing two other divisions every year and the league does not pick your schedule. It's determined by your standing. So third place finishes get third place opponents in the other divisions within your conference. And that's why we know in January, the day after week 18 ends who you're going to be playing this upcoming year. And that's where all the networks start pummeling us with strength of schedule based on last year's win loss record, which is not the best way to calculate strength of schedule. But be that as it may, that's what they like to share with us. Then there's the strength of schedule as it relates to timing of those games. The rest analysis which we don't find out until, you know, we get to this point. Once they actually release the schedule, then we can figure out those aspects. So yeah, that's what I was referring to there.

[Chad Millman]

You know, real quickly on the Bears and I want to, I want you to talk about the Eagles for a minute because I know Simon has thoughts there and we got to talk about the Bills. Just because those three teams happen to be in your rest advantage advantage and rest advantage disadvantage. The Bears have the hardest schedule heading into the season. The only team to win a playoff game or the last team, what is it? The last team to win a playoff game with this kind of strength of schedule. They have not won a playoff game since 2016. That from. That's from ESPN.com I think it was Dan Graziano, seven of the past 10 teams did not even make the playoffs that had the hardest schedule. Which to me, as much as I love the Bears, I've had a weird fade. The Bears feeling with the Lions having an easy schedule with the potential of Kyler Murray with the packers being at full strength next year. Simon, you want to walk me off a ledge? You want to tell me I'm wrong? You want to tell me I'm thinking like a wise guy. Give me some feedback here.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, as a wise guy. They're an easy fade. Right. The first year head coach over overachieved. Right. Won a division. No one thought they were going to win division had a down year. Now you're in a first place schedule. It's. They're an easy fit. But that's. As a Bear fan, this is how you know you have a top three quarterback. That's what you're basically going to need from Caleb to basically be the 1 seed or 2 seed this year. So it's, this is how legends are formed, Chad. Like it's all stacked against you guys. You should be terrible this year, honestly. Like you guys should be in fourth. Fourth place, third place. It's. You just overachieved so much last year and even think about your playoff success. Right. You, you almost made to the NFC championship off two back heel throws by Caleb. Like it's just that that was the kind of line you guys are walking last year. So I think your your radar is right to be picking up there. They're probably a team we're going to look into fading this upcoming season. And I think Warren's about to back it up here a little bit with some of his stats.

[Warren Sharp]

There are some things to like about this team from a rest perspective. Now based on my strength of schedule, which I do believe is more impactful than anything related to rest. But the way I calculate strength of schedule, as you know, is I look at win totals, not last year's record because the future looking anticipates and accounts for different quarterbacks like your Kyler Murray, it accounts for new coaches, coaches that were fired, the draft, all of these types of things. Whereas if you just look at last year's win loss record, you ignore free agency, you ignore the draft, you like any player movement, any injuries, all that stuff just gets ignored and accounted for with your numbers. I still have the Chicago Bears as having the number six toughest schedule. When you're looking at strength of schedule overall and this isn't rest, this is just opponents, it's important to look at the extremes, right? The top five, top eight best, top five, top eight worst. It's not really, hey, this is 16 versus 21. So this is great. I'm so much better than the 21st team. That's going to be irrelevant by the time this thing all is said and done. From a rest perspective though, I will say some positive things about the Chicago Bears because they do have plus 15 net days of rest, which is the best in the NFL. They also have five games where they play with more rest than their opponent. That's number one in the NFL. They only play two games with less rest than their opponent plus three games net with more rest than their opponent. That is the most of any team in the NFL. So those are some positives. In addition, they play some of their most critical opponents with rest advantage. We'll talk I don't know potentially about the buy weeks being a little bit less impactful from a rest perspective. Given CBA in 2011, the mandatory four days off used to be you could bet buy weeks teams off of bye weeks from around like 22,000 to 2010 and hit 56% ATS just betting on teams that are coming off of buys. Now you're actually down in the 48, 49% range by doing that because of the mandatory four days off. But the Bears have three games where they're playing off of minibuys and mini buys are more impactful in a positive manner than are full buys and they're playing the Seahawks with three days of extra rest off a mini buy and they're playing the Lions with three days of rest off of minibuy. Two teams that they're going to be competing against in the nfc. In addition, a tough game against the Jaguars after playing on Thanksgiving, they have a minibuye heading into that game. Last year they had just one game where they played with a three day rest advantage or more. This year they've got four of those such games. I'll just throw out a statistic here as it relates to the Bears from an ATS perspective that you might find intriguing, Chad. This is a team that if they have played since 2020 with a rest deficit of at least three days, which is what we're talking about, that's the more impactful one. They are 09 straight up 1 and 8 ATS. That's a minus 79% ROI. But if they over that same span were playing without having a rest disadvantage, they were 55% ATS, which is a plus 4% ROI, which was the fourth best in the NFL. And their ROI was the worst in the NFL when they played with a rest disadvantage. So the same has held true under Ben Johnson last year. Obviously now we're talking about a very small sample size, but they went 112 straight up 1111 ATS last year when they did not have a rest disadvantage, but when they did have a rest disadvantage, 02 straight up and against the spread last season. So this was a team. There are certain teams that have been more equipped to deal with rest disadvantages than others. This is a team that has not been as much in the past equipped to deal with rest disadvantages, but they're not going to have to really worry about that this year, whether they've become better under Ben Johnson or not, because they've got the best net rest edge of any team in the NFL this season.

[Simon Hunter]

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[Debbie Brown]

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[Chad Millman]

Simon, we did not get to the Eagles, who have a massive rest disadvantage this year. When you look at it, are you like, it's the Eagles, who cares? We're gonna be fine.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, but people, I would say fans around here are more into the schedule than they had been in prior years of stuff that Warren's talking about, which I never would hear from a regular fan about two, three years ago. Now I have people come up to me like, yeah, it's, I think it's them in the Chargers, right? Play four different teams coming off buys that, like, that is a big deal, right? Like, you can't just overlook those type of stats. So I'm happy, I'm happy to hear Warren break this down because I do look at them and look at their schedule. It's like okay. They're still clear the best team in their division for a first place schedule. It's not that brutal, but it does feel like they have a lot of these weird prime time games throughout the season that just are putting them in bad spots and disadvantages. And you know, they're, they're one of the few teams going, I believe to England to play a game and coming back not taking the bye weekend. I don't even know. It might be the Panthers. I feel like they're playing a team who's coming off a bye week that week. But yeah. Warren, tell me the bad news. How bad is this Eagles rest disadvantage?

[Warren Sharp]

Yeah, that's a great single game to isolate there with the Panthers game where the Eagles are traveling from London without the buy. Whereas the Panthers not only are playing in the states the week before, but they have a buy the week before. I meant playing their last game in the state. So they're not doing the traveling and they're coming off of a buy. That's going to be a real interesting. That's week six against the Panthers. But yeah, as the Philadelphia Eagles, this is the kind of the real discussion that we had earlier. What's more important, the schedule of opponents or your rest? The Philadelphia Eagles play the seventh easiest schedule of opponents. If you look across the division, the Cowboys and the Commanders, they all play like bottom eight easy schedules of opponents. Their schedule of opponents are much more difficult, but both of those teams rank top five in net rest. The Eagles, sorry, the Commanders and the Cowboys. Whereas the Philadelphia Eagles ranked 31st in net rest at minus 15 days, exact opposite of the Chicago Bears. They rank 31st in prep and rest. They are playing six opponents that have over seven days to prepare for them, including those bye week games that you mentioned, Simon. So that is going to be something from a challenging perspective for them. Weeks one to nine, they play four games with a rest disadvantage and zero games with a rest advantage. So it starts off difficult from a rest perspective for them. If there is any time in the calendar that you would want to be at a rest disadvantage, though it would probably be earlier on in the season when you're not banged up. And so that will play into their favor later on because from weeks 10 onwards, they are plus seven days of net rest edge from weeks 10 onward, which includes their bye week. So that is a positive for them. The interesting thing about from a rest perspective is the Eagles play five games where they are at a rest disadvantage. The Commanders and the Cowboys only play one such game. So that's where I think the league could try to do a little bit better job of balancing things out within divisions, but it is what it is. The interesting note that I'll say Chad just mentioned at the top when he teed off to you Simon, about it's the Eagles. So should we really be concerned here because it's the Eagles, they can overcome this type of thing. Since 2015, when they've played with a rest disadvantage of at least three days, they are 7, 14 and 1 straight up an ATS recording a minus 36% ROI. So three days or worse rest advantage, they've been absolutely terrible even since 2020, right when they've made trips to the super bowl and won 3 and 5 straight up 2, 6 and 1 ATS, that's a minus 52% ROI. When they are playing with a rest disadvantage of at least three days, that's the third worst mark of any team in the NFL over that span. So they haven't exactly overachieved against difficult rest situations. And the reason I look at ATS when I'm looking at rest is because, you know, that's taking into consideration the point spread, which is the great equalizer I'm looking at over or underperformance versus market expectation. I don't care about straight up. I care about are you performing better than you were expected to perform in a given situation. So Philadelphia Eagles, difficult schedule of rest. Much easier schedule of opponents than their counterparts in the NFC East. So that's things that they should be trying to tackle this upcoming season.

[Chad Millman]

You know what's interesting to me? I feel like after so many years for Roger Goodell of having to manage concussion issues, player health issues, lawsuits, don't forget there was a time where it wasn't guaranteed Roger Goodell was going to get renewed by the owners for his job. I mean, he's so in command of the job right now. I feel like he's entered the Dana White managing the UFC phase of his career where doesn't really care about it when anyone thinks doesn't really care about what fans may think individually. He's about how am I going to maximize revenue and I'm not going to think about having to even pretend to care about anything else. I don't know that he ever did care about anything else, but now he really doesn't even have to pretend to care about anything else. That's what I think about when teams like the Rams are in seven primetime games or the Eagles that are one of the biggest, most popular teams consistently have a rest disadvantage in My head. I'm like the owners and the commissioner have really just gone all in on making this the most entertaining bloodsport possible for the rest of us.

[Simon Hunter]

That and he. I think his main goal, he's always been just whatever the owners say. That's his job. Right. He's the punching bag for the owner.

[Debbie Brown]

Yeah.

[Simon Hunter]

None of these ideas are here.

[Chad Millman]

He's the COVID Right. Exactly. By the way, totally true.

[Simon Hunter]

The my. Another great example is just this season he put in one of the most important divisions in all football, the NFC West. They're starting the season in Australia with a divisional game between the 49ers and the Rams. I would be losing my mind as a fan where it's like that could easily determine like it did last year who the one seed is going to be.

[Warren Sharp]

Right.

[Simon Hunter]

Those divisional games, especially in that big of a decision. Such a big deal. But Goodella needs to do what's right. Right.

[Carlos King]

It's.

[Simon Hunter]

It's entertainment. Like we might care as fans, but in the day it is a sports entertainment. And they are behind the NBA. Like the NBA. Sending Jordan to France in the 90s jumped that sport 50 years ahead of American football internationally. Like you can't overestimate how big of a deal it was sending Jordan to France and just that.

[Chad Millman]

You mean Spain. Spain for the, for the Barcelona Olympics.

[Simon Hunter]

Okay. And I remember him being in Paris, but it's just the Bulls went to Paris.

[Chad Millman]

That's when he called the Louvre.

[Simon Hunter]

Yes. It was just. He was like a rock star. That was a huge deal. And it was just. It just shows where. It's like they're trying to catch up down football. It's. It's an American thing. Chad knows like he, he travels. You don't. It's just not even on people's radar in other countries. In England now it is. Right. It's working like the never ending sending these teams to England is working. So I, I think we totally see what, what Cadella's playing is. Right, Chad? It's the London Jaguars. I know they're getting our stadium redone right now. The third. If they go up to add teams this league, there's going to be a team. It feels like in London eventually. Like that's just where we're heading. The way these airplanes are, how comfortable these guys are. It's. There's no difference of flying there than flying from the east coast to the west coast. So it's. It feels like we're getting there. It's going to be an international sport before we know it.

[Chad Millman]

Well, look Your point's not lost on the NBA. As popular as the NFL is in the United States and it's obviously the biggest sport and much more popular than the NBA. But the MVP of the NBA the past two years is she, Gilgis Alexander, who's from Canada. Before that, we're talking about Jokic. And by the way, the top four invoke getters this year, sga Jokic Wembanyama from France. Luca, like it is a. It is far and away international sport because of what you just said. It's because of 35 years of of the NBA really leaning into it. All right, that's a wrap on part one of this episode. That's right, part one of this episode of the 2026 NFL schedule. This has been sharper square part of the volume podcast network. Our thanks to special guest Warren Sharp who will be back with part two of our NFL schedule release show. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple pods, wherever

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you get your pods rate Review. Subscribe. Leave us 5 stars.

[Chad Millman]

Say whatever you want.

[Simon Hunter]

Feedback is a gift. Until next time.

[Chad Millman]

Love you.

[Carlos King]

The other thing the NFL has done,

[Warren Sharp]

thank God is they got rid of that silly.

[Carlos King]

We've got to give every team one prime time game. You haven't earned the right to get a game. This is not a participation trip. Trophy league. Get out of here.

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Hey guys, it's us, the Jonas brothers.

[Chad Millman]

I'm Joe.

[Kevin Jonas]

I'm Kevin.

[Nick Jonas]

And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called hey Jonas.

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We invented a podcast.

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Well, we didn't invent it, we. We just contributed to it.

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People to do podcasts.

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We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions.

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Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it, but you know, tired and sick. Tired and sick.

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Listen to hey Jonas on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Just listen.

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[Sanjanah Bhasker]

Why are we all so obsessed with romance? On the Radio 831 podcast, join us Sanjanah Bhasker and Tyler McCall as we unpack all the trending tropes, buzzy adaptations, booktok drama and celebrity love stories with hot takes and sharp guests. Each episode digs into what these stories reveal about desire, fantasy, identity and how we love. Now Listen to the Radio 831 podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Carlos King]

If you're watching the latest season of the Real Housewives of Atlanta, you already know there's a lot to break down.

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[Debbie Brown]

This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.