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Chad Millman (2:52)

Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock Bat. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the square sharper. It makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined as always by my bff, my companion, my compadre, my co host, professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello Simon, Chad, how we doing my brother? We're going to talk a little NFL today because we're going to do part two of our NFL win totals episode that we started a couple weeks ago with part one. Last time we did all the NFL win totals for teams that had totals of 10 or more in 2026 at Hard Rock Bets. Again, these were just released in the last few weeks, so that's why we're talking about them now. Today we're going to cover everybody else. So far we've talked about like in Buffalo over ten and a half. I also took Carolina over six and a half. I believe you called that quote a trap, unquote. And that was before they made any signings. We followed up on that a little bit with Barnwell. Some of the stories that have been driving the news for the NFL since we did part one. So we'll see if these change anything for us. Obviously the Max Crosby trade that was then canceled. Baltimore followed it up by signing Trey Hendrickson. TUA has gone to Atlanta. He will be the starter presumptively. Kyler to Minnesota. So we know we're going to want to talk about Minnesota. Like Kevin McCarthy has to be so excited about that. Pittsburgh added Michael Pittman and Rico Dowdle. Justin Fields is going to be backing up and maybe starting in Kansas City to start the year depending on the homes recovery from his acl, Christian Kirk and Mike Evans to San Francisco. You know I always love looking for an excuse to bet on the Niners. Dallas traded for Rashawn Gary from Green Bay at defensive end. Dallas Goddard re signed with Philly. They also acquired Rick Woolen. They got rid of Reed Blankenship or at least he walked away. And then just this week on Tuesday Jalen Waddle traded from Miami to Denver. Before we get into anything Simon, I just listed off a lot of movement which one of those when you heard about them and since you've heard about them most piques your interest is most exciting to you. Do you think was the smartest play?

Simon Hunter (5:32)

Yeah, I think we're aligned. How do you not like the Vikings move right going Tyler that was it.

Chad Millman (5:38)

That was it for me. Yeah.

Simon Hunter (5:40)

It's just, it's only upside like we all know what the, the deal is with the kid. He has tons of talent. It's just like can he put the work in and this will be the first time in my mind that you'll have probably the best coaching of his career. So I and just someone that's gonna be super hard. I'm just going to tell him like hey your last team gave up on you. I think he's going to tell him that every day and being like you're not this untouchable guy now like you're here, your other team's paying for you to come play for us. That's how much they gave up on you. So yeah. Love that move for Minnesota and we talked about the Ravens move. I, I, I mean they're, it's a bad look, it's embarrassing for the Ravens organization but totally agree with the, totally agree with the move. Like if you find something that tells you hey in two, three years this guy might need another surgery on this knee and this might be a problem going forward, you do, you fail the physical and you don't, you don't trade those picks away. So you know if you're the Browns and you don't draft well anyway. Sure. Or I shouldn't say the Browns did draft well last year but you know all these teams aren't great at drafting. Sure. Trade away your first round picks. The Ravens feels like they're pretty good at drafting first round picks so that was a bizarre move. Now they get those picks backs and get Trey Henderson. It's, it feels like a Great move for them. And as an Eagles fan that's still hearing all the rumors about A.J. brown, the A.J. brown to the Raiders for Max Crosby deal is now a real possibility. So that Max Crosby thing does not feel done yet. Like, I know that he went back in the next morning. I think it was like 8am he was in and rehabbing at the Raiders facility the next morning. Like, he's just. That's the kind of guy he is, right? He didn't miss a beat. So to me, if you're the Raiders, you know, you can, you can hold on to him. It's not that bad. But I think in the dead, they want to move him for a piece that's going to help their franchise quarterback. So that was, I don't know. That was by far the most shocking thing of the whole offseason. Like that. That never happens. We're sending a trade like that to first round picks. Chad, I was truly shocked and I can't remember another time this has happened.

Chad Millman (7:35)

Well, look, that was the shocking move to begin with was getting rid of the first two picks because it's just out of character for the Ravens, right? They have had a history of drafting really, really well in the first round and then rescinding the trade was even more out of character for the Ravens and for really just how the NFL operates. But going to get Trey Hendrickson, to me, I loved it because Max Crosby to me was a two to three year trade, right? He's 28, 29. We talked about this when, when we talked about should the Bears be giving up DJ Moore in a first round pick to go get Max Crosby. It's because you feel like you're in the window with the Bears where you're going to try to get maximum value for this team for the next two years tops. That's really what you're playing for. You want to win the super bowl in that window. And I think it's the same thing for the Ravens. So basically what they did was say, okay, we got a guy who's reaching his peak and might have two to three great years left in Max Crosby. We're going to walk away. Let's go get someone who might be one or two years in Trey Hendrickson, but it'll be enough with the rest of our team that it'll lay the foundation for something great with the new coach. I love the way they operate, that they are. They're so good at this, you know what I mean? Like, they're just. Some people never get good at it and Some people are always good at it and they are always good at it.

Simon Hunter (9:00)

Well, it's funny, the books, the books had moved them to 11 and then back down to 10 and a half. So that was interesting. Watching the Ravens line move that they gave him half a win when they got max and they didn't move it at all. Good. And try. So that was, that was good by the books.

Chad Millman (9:18)

Well, maybe there's value there, Simon. Maybe, maybe, maybe. The other thing you just said, I thought that was so smart. Kevin McCarthy is going to say to Kyler every day we are getting paid to take you. Like you think you're so great. You are a tremendous athlete. You are a two sport athlete. You could have gone to do anything. You think you're so great and your other team does not want you so badly. They're begging us to take you. They are giving us money to take you. That is a great motivator. It will be really interesting to test the McCarthy whisperer phenomenon on Kyler. Right, Because Kirk Cousins, it worked. Daniel Jones, it worked. Sam Darnold, it worked. J.J. mcCarthy, it kind of hasn't worked. What is Kyler? Kyler is a better athlete than all of those guys, but he has your reputation of not being a guy who's committed to football. If Kevin McCarthy can do anything close to what he did with the other guys who have gone on to make tons and tons of money, that's going to be really interesting. Which means when we talk about the Minnesota Vikings who are at what, seven and a half? I think eight and a half. Eight and a half all of a sudden with Kyler and the reputation of McCarthy, do we think, oh, that's interesting because I don't know.

Simon Hunter (10:50)

I don't hate it. Yeah, I'm with you. I don't hate the. If you're taking the over because it's plus 110 at Hard Rock, eight now half. So you did miss the value. Like Chad said, it was seven and a half. The Kyler moved give them, gave him a win. We've seen it with Kyler. Like Kyler, his biggest issue is like what Chad's talked about is the commitment. Like Kyler in a contract year, what he get 11, 12 wins. That's what this is, let's say contract year for him now, right. This is a one year prove it deal. So if you're going to back a Kyler Murray to be motivated, this has to be the year. I mean next year, if they give him whatever 150 million over three years next year in Minnesota I think me and Chad will definitely back away from F taking them next year. But you. You want to back Kyler in the year that he's motivated. So I'm with you on that. That's a sneaky play, especially a plus 110. I think that that flips to minus 110 the closer we get to the start of the season. So, yeah, I like that overplay. Yeah.

Chad Millman (11:45)

It's like Kyler all of a sudden being in the NFC north, that division. Jordan Love, Kyler Murray, Caleb Williams, Jared Goff all of a sudden is sort of the least interesting quarterback. And that team, by the way, is looking more and more like an underplay. The Lions, with all the offensive line issues they're having, just think like two years ago, this team, they were freaking primed. They had the offensive line that was bulldozing people. Right? They're like Ben Johnson, like this team, that window just closed. I just. I feel terrible for them. I do.

Simon Hunter (12:26)

I know. That's why any team that has a standalone top five, top 10 quarterback, it's the ultimate cheat code for being a football fan, because it doesn't matter if you lose a Ben Johnson, you got the quarterback. You'll figure it out. Again, I'm not trying to poo poo golf, but we all know the deal, right? It's like he needs it to be perfect to be a top 10 quarterback. And yeah, this division we've been talking about, it's. The Bears won it last year. It feels like the same type of deal this year. It's really going to be a toss up. Who can stay healthy is going to really be the deterrent for this, this division. It feels like there's just so much talent across all four teams.

Chad Millman (13:04)

All right. At the bottom of the pile right now, Arizona, four and a half. Miami, four and a half. Las Vegas, New York jets, five and a half. I'm going to do a quick comment and then I want you to tell me agree or disagree? Ready? Arizona, four and a half. Under.

Simon Hunter (13:28)

Agree.

Chad Millman (13:30)

Miami, four and a half. Under.

Simon Hunter (13:37)

Agree.

Chad Millman (13:38)

Las Vegas, five and a half. Fernando. But I'm still taking the under.

Simon Hunter (13:50)

Yeah, it's an under.

Chad Millman (13:52)

New York jets, five and a half. I might take the alt under here. If there's a three and a half, I might just take that. And if there's an Aaron Glenn, first coach to be fired, I might parlay the whole thing.

Simon Hunter (14:06)

Agree. The Raiders, the only one, the only team that feels like are going to try to win. Out of all the teams you just said everyone else, they Want the top pick. Whether that be meaning we don't even know. Right. It's. You never know who's gonna be the number one pick this early. Like Fernando Mendoza, I believe was a thousand one or not a thousand one plus a thousand to be the number one pick at this point last year. So.

Chad Millman (14:26)

And by the way, don't forget, what was it before the NFL season ended? one point on the show, you're like minus 150. Yeah. Fernando Menoza is minus 150. Like, go bet him right now.

Simon Hunter (14:39)

Yeah. So that's, it's, it's, it's. It's a sad, sad state when it's like all these teams, we know they're gonna tank because usually the NFL is not like that. You could kind of lie to yourself and say, oh, these teams are going to try. Like, you get a team like the Cleveland Browns, that they're terrible. They still got the five wins. Like they were still trying. Like those guys on the defense were still trying. Some of these teams this year that Chad just mentioned, like Arizona, I don't know what's going to be the motivating factor there. Right. They're just going to get rid of all these players on this team that are just going to be paying all this dead money. They're not going to try to win. And same with the jets, like, bringing back Aaron Glenn. Such a strange, strange look and move.

Chad Millman (15:16)

So, by the way, bringing back Geno Smith.

Simon Hunter (15:21)

Yeah, I know. So it's like Gino, Gino and Aaron Glenn, they could win six games because they're idiots. Like that could happen with that team. So, yeah, the Jets, I don't know what to do with them, but they're another team. I just, it's hard to think of them getting over two or three wins.

Chad Millman (15:36)

I mean, that was an interesting move. Geno Smith, that's how bad it's gotten. The jets are signing him. It's a terrible combination for everybody. It can, you know, like, that's Geno Smith looks good because Justin Fields was so bad. That's really what it is. This next batch. Carolina, six and a half. I felt like you started to come around to my side the other day when Barnwell was on because they made some good signings. The biggest issue I think you have is that they've got to play the harder schedule now because they came in first. But I contend that their division, they could potentially get six wins in their division. No, they're playing.

Simon Hunter (16:29)

Jesus. You're out of your mind now with that comment. A good year with them getting four wins in their division, that would be fine.

Chad Millman (16:37)

Four. Give them four wins.

Simon Hunter (16:39)

That's best case.

Chad Millman (16:40)

They can find three wins the other 13 games.

Simon Hunter (16:45)

I know, but you think they're going to win their division? Who are they sweeping? They sweep in the Saints. The Saints are just as good as that. Like, don't. Don't put disrespect on Shuck's name.

Chad Millman (16:52)

Look, the Saints. The Saints have a higher win total than the Panthers right now.

Simon Hunter (16:55)

Right. So that's what I mean, it's like, dude, they got to play the Bears. They got to play the Eagles. Like that first place schedule, man. They got to play the Sea Auto Seahawks. It's tough. It is really tough. So that's. That's just why, like, I'm trying to ward you off. It's a fishy line. But your early bet, if you did make it was right, because I think it was minus 120. Now it's up to minus 150 at Hard Rock or minus 140. So, yeah, the. The money's coming on their total. I just. As soon as I saw that line, I'm like, my God, the public is going to hammer that Carolina Panthers line. And that is the fishes of fishy lines. Like, why is it not seven and a half? I don't get why they open at six and a half. They opened it that way because they want to take money to the over. So that's just why I was like, be careful here. But I told you, I'll support you. It's. We're a Carolina Panther show. I mean, I'll support it, but I just don't want the fans to be making it one of their bigger bets. There's other, safer bets to bet for. Win totals.

Chad Millman (17:48)

I can't believe the Carolina Panthers don't sponsor our show.

Simon Hunter (17:52)

They should.

Chad Millman (17:53)

Makes no sense. They don't have a. They don't get this much national attention from anybody.

Simon Hunter (17:59)

Yeah. I mean, for good reason, though. It's like no one's turning in to hear the Panthers talk. Remember that Panthers podcast that folded?

Chad Millman (18:06)

No.

Simon Hunter (18:06)

Last year? No. So basically this Panthers podcast folded up because they were just like, they can't take it anymore. Both the guys said, like, it's. It's like affecting their lives. And then all of a sudden, the Panthers won like a bunch of games in a row. So it became this whole thing where everyone was like, you guys can never come back because now the Panthers are winning. It was just the whole thing. But that's how hard it is being a Panthers fan. They're making guys quit their hobby podcast because it's affecting their life that much negatively.

Chad Millman (18:33)

By the way, I didn't know we could just quit shows if it was affecting our lives. Because there are so many ways the show affects our lives negatively. Like if we could just quit, that'd be fantastic. Cleveland and Tennessee, both six and a half. Look, I think, I think six and a half feels a little bit high for Tennessee and Cleveland because I don't know, you're kind of on the Deshaun Watson bandwagon here. And I keep seeing this. I've seen this. I don't know if it's like becoming a media narrative if everyone is having the same conversation amongst themselves and you know, but why are people so excited that Deshaun Watson could all of a sudden be what he hasn't been in five years? Like, everyone's saying DeSean Watson that he could come back. And I just, I. I'm not getting it.

Simon Hunter (19:26)

So if Chad asked me a question and I give a response to it now, I'm in love with the team. You asked me my. Your favorite long shot. I said 131Cleveland Browns because DeSean Watson's coming back. And now I'm a big DeSean Watson guy. This is very big on brand for Chad. I. The guy I said the guys could be totally washed. It's a train wreck of the season. The. The books are being very telling right now. Where Cleveland's plus 125 at Hard Rock over six and a half. Tennessee is minus 125.

Chad Millman (19:57)

Yeah. Right.

Simon Hunter (19:58)

And that is because of the divisions. Right. Like we don't know what the culture gonna be. Daniel Jones coming back from a huge injury, who their quarterback's even going to be. Jaguars. It's fair to say they overachieved a little bit last year. Like it was pretty impressive how good, you know, they were last year. And can they build on that or was that just a fluke? Their first year offense and we still have a lot of questions about Trevor Lawrence especially. And yeah, the Tennessee. I think maybe the pros are bending a check because the new coach Bump. Right. You think solid comes in there, fixes that defense a little bit. But to me they have so many holes like you needed. You would need CJ take such a huge step to year two.

Chad Millman (20:40)

You mean camp.

Simon Hunter (20:41)

So I would take the over. I agree with the pros. Really bet on that one. I wouldn't take the under. And for Cleveland, as much as I'm propping up to Sean Watson, those odds at over under six and a half in that division, I, I would agree with the pros. The under six and a half feels like the safer bet.

Chad Millman (20:58)

Atlanta a quick one ready. Atlanta seven and a half. I'm gonna go with the. I'm going with the over.

Simon Hunter (21:11)

Yeah, that's. That's what I mean. Like this division I'll probably be on every team's over. Honestly, like I really looked at Dick in the under because Atlanta has enough talent, they could get the 10 wins. It's like if Tua has good pass blocking, which he should have there and he has good weapons, he could be great. If Penn comes back from his injury and he's all right, this could be a good offense. Like there's a lot of upside, but it's Atlanta team and you know, at hard rock they're plus 105 to the over seven and a half. So. Yeah, I'm not better right now. Like there's no way I'm locking up money in Atlanta Falcons in the March in March. But they are attempting line especially at this number.

Chad Millman (21:51)

New Orleans seven and a half. All right, I know you're taking the over.

Simon Hunter (21:55)

Yeah, I would.

Chad Millman (21:56)

I'm interested in New Orleans because I really want to see how well Tyler Shuck does next year.

Simon Hunter (22:02)

That's what's exciting parts year two of Shuck, right?

Chad Millman (22:04)

Yeah, that's it. Is. Are they building on that or they're

Simon Hunter (22:07)

getting four wins like they're. They're a team. I'm gonna be an alternative over unders. Like I'm gonna take the over eight and a half, over nine and a half. And I'm going to be taking the under five and a half under under four and a half. Like this is it wasn't a flash in the paint or is this guy legit? Like he's got bust written all over him Shook like there's look so much that could go wrong for him after year one.

Chad Millman (22:26)

This is the perfect scenario for them because Shuck did well enough that they, he didn't put them in a position where they have to like be so high that they could potentially be scrambling and trying to figure out who their quarterback is going to be in a weak quarterback draft class other than Mendoza. Like, there's questions about everybody. Whereas if shock is great, they will have a full year to see and they will be a team that's on the rise because they got the quarterback that they needed at pretty, you know, sort of pretty low costs. And if he's terrible, they will know and all Of a sudden, they're in the archman incomes home race and let's see if they can get their hero to return. Right? So they're in a perfect position. They win either way next year.

Simon Hunter (23:25)

I'm just shocked. The books on the seven. A seven and a half on them, like, that feels very high for this team. It does talk about like a lot of question marks. And yeah, I'm, I, I wanted to hammer this under, but I, I think I'm too close to my love for shuck. So it's, it's, it's a tough line for me.

Chad Millman (23:40)

Giants seven and a half. That feels like a Harbaugh bounce, right? Like there's no other reason to be betting on the Giants at seven and a half. If other than you think they are just going to completely revamp their culture because of what John Harbaugh is going to bring to that team.

Simon Hunter (23:57)

This is like one of my favorite under bets. And I know some pros, I've been hammering this over dart runs literally with his head down into guys like, all right, Harbaugh can coach out of him. Sure. I, I would not be betting on it. This guy has played one style his entire career. And I don't know if you've seen him get interviewed. He's talked about not changing. He's like, that's who I am. That's the way I play. So maybe they can beat it into him. But if you don't have a quarterback and stay available and consistently get better dart flashes. We've seen the talent. He can't stay on the field and can say can be consistently, you know, getting reps. This is going to be a disaster for this Giants team because this, this is a hard division, like Dak Jalen, Jayden Daniels. This is a really hard division. So I was another line, I think mispriced by the sports books. I had this at five and a half. So two, two wins off the books. And that, that to me just shows how I'm viewing dart compared to the sports books. I am way lower on dart than the sports books, clearly. And yeah, I could not believe this one open at seven half. So I don't give out too many favorite unders at this point of year. I like betting overs just because the line usually moves. This one, I, I do really like the under year. I think this one's going to drop down to six and a half.

Chad Millman (25:10)

But it's not just dart. It's Cam Scatterboo and, and who runs like a bulldozer. He's not going to change. He's coming back from an injury.

Simon Hunter (25:20)

His leg was facing the other way.

Chad Millman (25:22)

Yeah, like and their defensive line, Abdul Carter was, was disappointing this year. They're trying to get rid of Thibodeau. Like they weren't as good defensively up front as I think anyone expected them to be. They've got questions at receiver now because they've got players coming back from injury, their best receiver coming back from injury. So there people are investing a lot in Harbaugh. If they are taking the over right now because they think he's what rebuilt their special teams. Like there's just a lot of faith. Harbaugh bounce there. Washington seven and a half. I'd go with the over there. I go with the over because I think they're going to get an easier schedule. Daniels is back for a full season and their defense can only get better and they know what the issues are. So I would like the over there.

Simon Hunter (26:16)

I'm taking the under. I get why you're taking the over though, but to me I think it's price right? Like I'm just taking the under because once again, as, as, as much as I like Daniels, I don't know if the team has made the right moves to improve. I know they've tried to improve the offensive line. We'll see if that comes to fruition. But yeah, I still have a lot of questions about this. Washington just in such a tough division.

Chad Millman (26:36)

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Chad Millman (31:55)

All right, Simon. Dallas Cowboys eight and a half. I'll bite. I'm a sucker. I'll take the over. I saw a lot of promise. I'm excited about what that can do. They got rid of Eber Fluss. That defense can get better. We'll see what Rashan Gary can do. Maybe be a better, more effective pass rusher than what they did when they got rid of Micah and didn't really have anything to stop it. I'm down on the Giants. I'm not crazy down on the commanders but I do think Dallas is going to be better. So I'll take the over. Eight and a half on the Cowboys.

Simon Hunter (32:33)

Yeah, don't hate it. It's. It's minus 135 right now at Hard Rock. So that obviously shows the pros have been hitting it and you know they looked over as well with you. It's the question is that defense and Dax health. I mean they waste a fully healthy Dax. He's. Yes and. And Dak was good man. Like a lot of really good. He kept them in it. Like he really. We talked about coming the year. I, I couldn't go over how much I love the pick and signing where he fit perfectly. What Dak wants to do which is pushing the ball downfield and running curl routes. He's really good at it. Like those sideline catches. Pickens lived up to the hype and they handled that right to me. They didn't give him a long term deal. They signed him to a one year franchise tag deal. So once again he'll be on his best behavior spick. And so I, I like that move a lot from Jerry. Shockingly smart move from Jerry there. And you know CD just like last year, I know he had those horrible drops in that one game but overall he's what a top five receiver. So I think we don't really question the offense did these offseason moves they've made to attack the defense. Is this going to fix this defense? So that's, that's the question. The pros think it is. They're hammering this over. I'll wait and see if this gets to nine and a half. I'm happy to take the under on minus 140, whatever that gets to rather than taking this over just because once again if Washington is a little bit better that's going to be really tough for them this division because the Giants as much as I think they're going to regress if Dart's healthier in the year, he could easily Steal a win from this Cowboys team. I mean, people forget Russell Wilson. What do you have? 40 points against the Cowboys team last year. And Dax stole it with Aubrey. Field goal in the last second from 65 yards. Like, they almost lost the Giants last year. So I think we're in agreement. We. We obviously believe this Cowboys team, but that. That's probably one of the lower win totals they've had. I think last year they opened at eight and a half. It might have dropped to seven and a half by the start of the season. I think they landed right on eight. So the books, they've been pretty dialed in here on this Cowboys team. So, yeah, pretty interesting line movement here. It's clearly going to nine.

Chad Millman (34:37)

Is CD Lamb a top five receiver? I guess I would go, yeah. It's Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson, Puka, Nakua. I think you got to do Jackson, Jackson, Smith, and Jigba. And then, like, is it CD Is he fifth? Is he, like, in no particular order, but is he the other one? Who are we missing? That could be a Monroe St. Brown.

Simon Hunter (35:06)

Like, I mean, I know everyone's different. Like, you, like Jamal. You put Chase right at one. I. I think CD Is better than Chase. So it's. It's. It's whatever you like your type. It's. Everyone's different. It's whatever you prefer.

Chad Millman (35:17)

I just hear about CD Versus the other guy. I don't even know if I'd put Jamar Chase one. Like, I'm a. I might put JSN or Puka number one. I think they both get contested balls. Especially Puka is much better at contested balls than Jamar Chase.

Simon Hunter (35:34)

Yeah, they're different style of receivers because, like, six, five, building a brick house.

Chad Millman (35:37)

Yeah, it's freaking awesome.

Simon Hunter (35:39)

They're different. But yeah, honestly, it comes down to me just how I've seen Chase perform when the season's lost and how I seen CD Perform the season's loss. CD Feels like he never takes reps off. I see Chase take reps off plenty of times like he is. Especially in games where Teagans is going off, you see him being a little bitch about it. Where Pickens is going off, you see CD Running over there, picking them up. Like, CD to me, just has the exact type of personality I want. And again, that's nothing against Chase, but we're splitting hairs here. Like, Chase is, like I said, a top five receiver in this league, so it's not that big of a difference. I just. If I had to pick one for my. For the Eagles, I'd prefer CD over

Chad Millman (36:19)

Chase Indy 8 1/2. I'm going under here.

Simon Hunter (36:26)

Yeah. What is this number?

Chad Millman (36:29)

Number.

Simon Hunter (36:29)

Yeah.

Chad Millman (36:30)

We don't even know when Daniel Jones is going to be playing. So are we saying that you know,

Simon Hunter (36:35)

do you remember what he did?

Chad Millman (36:36)

He tore his Achilles, right?

Simon Hunter (36:38)

He tore his Achilles.

Chad Millman (36:39)

Yeah. And he tore his Achilles midway through the year. It's not like he tore his Achilles in September. So that like we've seen great quarterbacks miss the full year for that in

Simon Hunter (36:51)

a division with Houston, Jacksonville on a Tennessee team we think is going to be better. So Chad. Chad's. I think we're in alignment. You're like the under, right?

Chad Millman (36:57)

Yes, as I said under.

Simon Hunter (36:59)

Yeah. So to me like this and the Giants. These are two unders. I've been betting pretty heavily. I. I did not do not understand this open at all. Unfortunately the books have limited to it. Like I, I've had a couple books only take a thousand. They don't let me re bet it either. Like they're holding firm on it because I think they know like there's too many unknowns here and they might have hung a bad line here because yes if Daniel Jones is fully healthy coming to this year, year two of running the stike and offense. I love this over like we saw how good he can be running this offense with Jonathan Taylor and you know they're bring. They brought back his number one receiver but the fact that we've seen two quarterbacks, I know he's much younger than them but we saw Kirk and Rogers take at least a year to come back from Achilles. Okay. Even if Daniel Jones is a little bit younger, he uses his legs way more than both those quarterbacks. Way more like that was the huge thing with Daniel Jones is using his leg especially running outside the pocket. So I, I cannot believe they hung a number this high. I could easily see this dropping to 6 1/2 7 by the season kicks off. We get word you know Jones won't be back till November so. Bizarre. Bizarre line by the sports book Minnesota we talked about.

Chad Millman (38:08)

Pitt is at eight and a half taking the under on Pittsburgh. I don't know who the quarterback's going to be. I feel like they're revamping their culture. They aren't leaning into players, they develop. They're bringing in new guys. Their defense with Watt and everybody else is and Hayward is just a year older, not necessarily better. They haven't figured out what their defensive backfield issues are like. This feels like a respect the uniform number. I'm taking the under yeah, it's.

Simon Hunter (38:46)

What are we gonna do for our old Tomlin days? We'd always try to find reasons to bet the under.

Chad Millman (38:52)

We don't have to worry about that anymore. I know.

Simon Hunter (38:54)

And that's, that's. I love that they're hanging this line exactly on the Tomlin line where they're.

Chad Millman (38:58)

Yes. Isn't that weird?

Simon Hunter (39:00)

Yeah. The new era. Or are you going to say the voodoo is gone and this is a six win team now, Especially with Aaron Rodgers coming back. But you know, the way Pittsburgh's been attacking this off season, they, they think they're a 9, 10 win team. So, you know, I'll pass on this one. I guess if I had to make a pick, I would join Chad and take the under here just because I do think Tomlin's that big of a deal and this division is that tough. But yeah, I love the books. Hung this right at eight and a half and it's plus 125 to the over. If you do like Pittsburgh on the

Chad Millman (39:29)

over, the last eight and a half is Tampa Bay eight and a half, minus 140 to the over. So money's coming in on that over there. Look. What do we believe? Do we believe in Baker? Do we believe this team can, can, can sort of return to what it was early in the year, return to what it was the year before? Or are they going to be a team that continues to sort of be in a perpetual state of middling mediocrity? Close enough, but can't quite get over the hump as they also, they're going over some roster turnover. Mechanical Booker was not as good in the second half of the year as he was in the first half of the year. What is going to happen to their running game where they had a lot of injuries last year with Bucky Irving, like, there's, there's issues there. I think they're getting the benefit of the doubt at eight and a half, but that division is soft.

Simon Hunter (40:26)

Yeah, that's the reason. Because they're in the right division and any other. If they were in your division chat. If they're in the north, they would probably be seven and a half. Like they just. They're getting a free game here because you assume they'll be the best team in this division because they still have a ton of talent. And you know, Baker, they never, he never had surgery or at least I didn't see everything in the news or I didn't hear anything from my minions, but I, I was positive he was hurt because he was a Totally different quarterback the first half of the season, second half, and you know, the second half of the season, what'd they lose? Seven straight or whatever. It was something like that, Something crazy like that. So to me, they're another high variance team. I could easily send them getting the 10 wins. Like if Baker is healthy and he's put it together, he's really good. I mean, it's crazy to think he was top three in MVP odds for totally first month and a half of last year's season. So, you know, we know they have a ton of talent, but we saw last year, like Chad said, they fell apart. And I think that is because they've lost so many smart offensive minds who become head coaches. Right. And there's only so many times you can overcome that. And you know, they're, they're a really fun team once again, a really fun division. And I'm not going to say I'm hammering their under here because I, like I said, I could see the over being a possibility. I'll simply pass this one. But if I had to make a pick, I, I would lean towards the under.

Chad Millman (41:44)

Simon, we got six teams that are aligned at nine and a half. Are you ready?

Simon Hunter (41:52)

Do it.

Chad Millman (41:53)

Chicago Bears, nine and a half, plus 100 to the over, minus 120 to the under. And I know that my head is telling me the under is the right side here, but how do I not want to root in with every part of my being for the Bears to run the table and go to the Super Bowl?

Simon Hunter (42:21)

Yeah. Like you said, the smart bed probably is the under. You expect the regression. Last year they overachieved. I mean, what was it the first seven, eight weeks they had five wins. True. Coin flips like they won in the last minute, two minutes like they had the record.

Chad Millman (42:37)

How about the end of the season? Every week was a cardiac arrest.

Simon Hunter (42:41)

Yeah. I would say the playoffs really amplified that. Right. They should have lost. The Green Bay that came back had an incredible win in the Rams.

Chad Millman (42:48)

They never should have like that. That game never should have been extended.

Simon Hunter (42:52)

Right. So, you know, it's the type of team that it's hard to go against them and take their under because what we just talked about, they find ways to win. That's on the coach and it's also obviously on the quarterback. And Caleb, we'll see how he handles this offseason. Right. Last year he was at the lowest point probably in his football life. Right. He was embarrassed, being torn apart by the media. I feel like if he had another bad year Last year with the Bears, they probably would have been open to moving on from this year. Literally, that's how bad it was last year. Now he is the golden goose. Like the whole city's behind him. Everyone believes in them. They'll see the talent and can he handle that? Right? Can he still be putting in the work this off season? Because you know, we haven't, we haven't gotten it since yet. But Joe Burrow, I don't know if you've seen him. He's been out and about with a lot of beautiful women this offseason, which is no problem. Like this dude, he's in his 20s, he's a millionaire, he's a star of a coinfell quarterback. These other quarterbacks like Mahomes, I've seen him rehabbing and work at Slate. Josh Allen, I've seen multiple videos of him at the Bills facility working out. Not him out partying or doing anything. It's like that's, that's my whole thing here with people. It's like, okay, Caleb. I've seen him go and have fun during the off season. For the first two weeks it felt like the off season. These last I've seen with him though, he's been in house, working out, being locked in. So if that holds true through the summer, I would take the over right now. I'm going to be. I'm going to handle patience with this line because I think it is price priced right by the sports books. I'm not rushing thick the over or the under.

Chad Millman (44:26)

Well, you just mentioned Cincinnati. Cincinnati is nine and a half. This feels so inflated to me. I don't understand it. It's clearly. It's clearly like the, the.

Simon Hunter (44:43)

What was your favorite Bengal sign in this offseason, Chad?

Chad Millman (44:46)

Can't say it.

Simon Hunter (44:47)

Yeah, exactly. No one can. Cheapest owners.

Chad Millman (44:50)

This is only about Joe Burrow is going to be playing a full season. So they think even though historically he never does. So A, you're banking on a healthy Joe Burrow and B, you're assuming that Joe Burrow is what everyone believes he to be. He is which is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. I'm not even sure you believe that anymore.

Simon Hunter (45:15)

I still like again, I took a lot of heat last year because I had him at number six in my top 10 quarterbacks I put at number five, Stafford over him. And like that's reversing history. People like, I try not to over adjust the one season people were killing me because I had Stafford above me. Like, have you not seen staff for these last couple years, he's nowhere near as good as Joe Burn. It's like dude Stafford, if he's healthy consistently on the field, he is just as good or if not better quarterback than Joe Burrow. The hype, it just reached too high because Joe Burrow won the national championship with maybe the greatest college football team ever. And then his first full healthy, second

Chad Millman (45:47)

best, second best college football team ever.

Simon Hunter (45:49)

His first wealthy NFL went to Super Bowl. So it's like I got. I understand why people love him so much, but my whole job is to keep evaluating year to year. And every year I feel like he's regressed a little bit. He just is not taking the next step. And that's because the team's failing him. Right? Those shots, those hits have added up to him and he's not gotten better like I talked about. Joe Flacco came in, he took that line from being. I know this sounds crazy and you could say, well the offensive line got better as well. I agree. They went from the 31st ranked offensive line when Joe Burrow went down to the 15th offensive line when he came back. And you could say, well, they got better throughout the season. No, Flacco didn't hold the ball so long. He's the reason their stats and look as terrible. He helped fix that offensive line. I know as crazy how that sounds but I do put a lot of this sacks and these hits onto Joe Burrow. So bad, bad win total. Like you just said, that's a. That's priced so inflated by just all past. Yeah. So I hate to say this division, honestly I would. I could see myself taking the under on every team and just one team hits big. Like I could see the Ravens hitting big, right, getting 12 or 13 wins or Pittsburgh somehow with Rogers getting the 1013 wins or some other Bengals do figure it out, get the 10 or 13 wins. But all these, all these teams feel like you could easily see them all go under. Like it just feels like it could be a totally lost, lost division here in the NFC North. So yeah, over under nine and a half feels way too high for the.

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Chad Millman (50:23)

Denver, nine and a half. I'll take the over. We don't know what's going to be happening with Kansas City yet and when Patrick Mahomes is going to come back. The Chargers are, you know, could be 15 and 2. They could be 9 and 8. Right. You just, you never know with that team. I like what their defense is. They just added Jalen Waddle. We know Bo Nix will be back. I think that Sean Payton is a good enough Coach. That a 107 team with this talent is not at all inconceivable to me. I'd rather be betting the over on this team than the under.

Simon Hunter (51:03)

Yeah. And just like the Bills, this is one of my bigger, bigger bets I've made so far this offseason. I'm thinking they're over. I, I, oh, nice over. And I do think you're being priced here at nine and a half because, you know, first place schedule, obviously, and this, the division is so tough. Right. We think Raiders are going to be a little bit better. We expect the Chargers to be healthier and better. And the, you know, the questions we have right now for the Chargers is Minter like he left, what is that defense going to be like for, for the Chargers? And when I look at this Denver team, it really does come down to the O line and D line. Like, I just think they're so good on the O line, the D line. And then you factor in the fact that on this Bonix deal, they've been out, they've gone out and they spent money, they've attacked these other positions where they're trying to build out the defense, they're trying to build out this offense and you know Sutton now on one side. Waddle on the other side. I love that move like they're another team. They were trying to get AJ and that would have been a huge upgrade for them. Waddle obviously he's not AJ but he's, he's got a ton of talent, a ton of speed. We'll see how he does for this offense but yeah I, I think the only real question now right now for Denver is can they get a running back like that to me is the weakness of this team. They need a running back and they've been trying. I mean everything I've read from all the reports they've been trying really hard to get a running back and you know they've been outbid by Kansas City and different things just have not worked out for their favor trying to get a running back in there. So yeah that, that went total strictly to me based on their division and the first place schedule like the books are just saying okay if Bonix comes back healthy and he is what he was last year they'll usually get a 10 or 11 win especially champagne is head coach. If he takes a little bit of regression the book is out on him. If these teams start really know how to attack Bo Nix and this Champagne offense that he's running. Yeah they could easily go under under this right. There's just, there's a lot of unknowns right now how they're going to be in year three with bone Knicks. But yeah, I'm very, very confident. Like I think they're another team to get to 11, 12 wins. Like I just think they're going to be really competitive these next two, three years because they've drafted so well in the interior that Bo next contract it's just so cheap. They can fill out the rest of the team with that.

Chad Millman (53:12)

I love when you and I agree. Let's see if we with these last three teams we're in agreement. Houston before we go over them just give me a yes or no. Houston nine and a half over no. Jacksonville nine and a half under no. New England nine and a half under no. Okay. Over three. So that makes me sad. Before I was like super high because we were nailing it on the Broncos.

Simon Hunter (53:48)

These are more that could change though brother.

Chad Millman (53:50)

And we, we were in agreement on the Bengals. Yeah I guess my take is this I believe more in the Texans defense than in the Jags defense, I think that is something that you know, will, will improve over the next year and I have to believe that CJ will be better over the next year even though they haven't done tremendous work to improve their offensive line yet. He's got to be better. He's going into a contract year. This will be the time he proves that he's going to be worth the 50 to 60 million that they are going to have to pay him. That's a foregone conclusion. Jacksonville, I'm just, I feel like we saw them improve week to week last year, but how much of that was schedule, how much of that was luck? How much of that was circumstances of who they were playing when they were playing them and the injuries that the other teams had. And New England, I'm just seeing a team that is playing a first place schedule and benefited from a really easy schedule the year before.

Simon Hunter (55:02)

Yeah, I'll say like the Texans. I totally agree. Like their defense could easily get them to 10 wins in that division. Yeah, for me, I'm just taking the under just because we're going to say right now just because it just feels like, you know, feels like a very high win total. Like 9 and 8 feels more likely than them getting a 10 win though, honestly with this team and the, you know, the, the factor for me is going to be those Colts games, right? If it is no Daniel Jones and Houston does get them twice in September and then October. That's a big deal, right? That's two free wins against a subpar team that Jacksonville will not be lucky. Is that so? Yeah, this is another one I'm not rushing to bet Jacksonville. Totally agree with your statement. First place schedule. I just, I can't get over how good their head coach is. Like the offense he ran, how much better Trevor Lawrence squad thought this season. Man, we joke. Link Owen, he hated Trevor. He would go berserk on him on the sideline being like this guy is a full on idiot. But Trevor's not an idiot, right? He is smart, football wise and he did improve as he's going along. And that's just the type of team that like, okay, if I believe in the coach, I believe in the quarterback. It's hard for me to take their unders, especially in such a bad division. New England, I was on the under. Honestly, coming to this, this off season, it's like oh my God, they're gonna get smoked. Their schedule next year is absolutely brutal. The Miami jets factor though is a big deal. Like if that's Four free wins. I mean, Rabel, he can get us five and a half more wins. Can he? And as bad as their offenses, to me, like, I don't think they made enough improvements to the offense. Their defense might be really good next year again. Like Vrabel clearly went to the front office and said, okay, we can't make a big splash at the wide receiver position to get, get a guy, you know, to take Drake to another level. Let me attack the defense. Let's keep adding the defense. And they've done that like this offseason. So, you know, another team where I, I not made a bet on it yet. I really wanted to be on the under. Now I'm leaning more to the over because it's just, man, that division's going to be so bad. It's just them and the Bills truly is. And we've now seen it a hard rock move to minus 125 to the over nine and a half. So I think we both can be patient, Chad. Maybe we'll get to 10 and a half and we both together can take the under here. That to me, ten and a half. That's an automatic bet on the under here that they feel right at nine, nine, ten wins. So once it's ten and a half, that would become one of my bigger bets. Sticking there under.

Chad Millman (57:29)

All right, so here's where I summarize and feel like I. We found some agreement. Colts under for sure. Giants under for sure. The Bills over for sure. The Denver over for sure. And Cincinnati under for sure. Anyone I'm missing

Simon Hunter (57:58)

No. Like it.

Chad Millman (58:00)

Nailed it, right? Yeah, I think we found mostly agreement. That makes me happy. All right, that's our show coming up next week. We're going to talk Major League Baseball opening day. I don't know about you guys, Simon. I'm freaking loving the World Baseball Classic. I. I think it's amazing. There'll be more March Madness to discuss too. This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast network. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Also download us from Spotify, Apple pods, wherever you get your pods rate. Review. Subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you. Hello. You play to win the game.

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Pharmaceutical Ad Voice (61:06)

Think Verizon is expensive? Think again. Anyone can bring their AT and T or T mobile bill to a Verizon store today and we'll give you a better deal. So bring us your bill walkin running pogo stickin' teleport if you can ride on the back of a rollerblading yak or flyin on the wings of a majestic falcon. Any way you can bring your AT&T

Chad Millman (61:24)

or T mobile bill to a Verizon

Pharmaceutical Ad Voice (61:26)

store today and we'll give you a better deal on the Best Network based on RootMetric's best overall mobile network performance US 2nd/2025 all rights reserved. Must provide a very recent postpaid consumer mobile bill in the name of the person redeeming the deal. Additional terms, conditions and restrictions apply. This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.