Sharp or Square: NFL Season Win Totals Part 2

Date: March 19, 2026
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Podcast: Sharp or Square (iHeartPodcasts & The Volume)

Overview

In this episode, Chad Millman and Simon Hunter continue their annual deep-dive into NFL season win totals (Part 2), focusing on teams with win totals under 10. They break down significant offseason moves, evaluate how new signings and trades impact futures, and share betting insights for each team’s season win total, highlighting their best value plays and the reasoning behind them. The episode blends sharp analysis, candid banter, and actionable advice for sports bettors targeting NFL win totals before the 2026 season.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Major NFL Offseason Moves: Impact and Reactions

[02:52–09:18]

• Kyler Murray to Minnesota:
  Both hosts see enormous upside, mainly due to Murray’s talent and the fresh start under coach Kevin McCarthy.
  • Simon: “It’s just, it’s only upside. Like we all know what the deal is with the kid. Tons of talent. This will be the first time he’ll have probably the best coaching of his career.” (05:40)
  • McCarthy’s motivational tactic—remind Kyler daily that his old team paid Minnesota to take him—could be a turning point.
• Ravens’ Canceled Crosby Trade & New Moves:
  The Max Crosby trade saga, its rescission (over medicals), and Baltimore’s quick pivot to sign Trey Hendrickson signal sharp, long-term thinking.
  • Chad: “Some people never get good at it, and some people are always good at it—and the Ravens are always good at it.” (08:20)
• Other Notable Acquisitions:
  • TUA to Atlanta, Pitts & Dowdle to Pittsburgh, Fields to Kansas City, Kirk & Evans to San Francisco.
  • Dallas acquiring Rashan Gary; Eagles with moves involving Dallas Goddard, Rick Woolen, and the departure of Reed Blankenship.
  • Jalen Waddle traded to Denver, possibly shifting their offensive profile.

Teams with Lowest Projected Win Totals

[13:04–15:36]

• Arizona (4.5): UNDER
  • Both agree Arizona’s tank is on; motivation and roster construction point down.
• Miami (4.5): UNDER
  • Same arguments: clear tank candidate.
• Las Vegas (5.5): UNDER
  • “It’s an under.” (13:50)
• NY Jets (5.5): UNDER (Chad leans ‘alt under’ if possible)
  • Chad: “If there's an Aaron Glenn, first coach to be fired, I might parlay the whole thing.” (13:52)
  • Bringing back Geno Smith and Aaron Glenn signals institutional confusion and low ceiling.

Buy-Low and Trap Lines

[15:36–18:45]

• Carolina (6.5): OVER (but beware the trap!)
  • Chad remains optimistic with divisional upside.
  • Simon: "That is the fishiest of fishy lines. Why is it not 7.5? They opened at 6.5 because they want to take money to the over." (16:55)
  • Hosts caution listeners: early money has moved the odds, but the schedule is tougher due to their prior finish.

Mid-Tier Win Totals and Divisional Breakdown

[18:45–23:25]

• Cleveland (6.5): UNDER (contrary to the media hype on Watson)
  • Simon clarifies he’s NOT on the Watson hype train, despite naming Browns as a speculative long-shot.
• Tennessee (6.5): OVER
  • Division winnable, new head coach, possible “new coach bump.”
• Atlanta (7.5): OVER
  • “Atlanta has enough talent, they could get to 10 wins… I’m not locking up money in Atlanta in March, but that number is tempting.” (21:11)
• New Orleans (7.5): OVER (barely)
  • Optimism around QB Tyler Shuck (“year two of Shuck”).
  • Chad: “If Shuck is great, they’re a team on the rise… if he’s terrible, they’ll know and be in the Arch Manning sweepstakes.” (22:26)
• Giants (7.5): UNDER
  • Simon’s one of his favorite under bets. “This is a hard division… this line is two wins higher than I’d have it.” (24:28)
• Washington (7.5): Split
  • Chad: OVER (easy schedule, Daniels back), Simon: UNDER (“I have a lot of questions about this Washington team.”)

Eight and Eight-and-a-Half Win Total Tier

[31:55–39:44]

• Dallas Cowboys (8.5): OVER (sharp/professional money has hit)
  • Chad is optimistic. Simon agrees with the over, but sees value disappearing as line rises. “The pros have been hitting it.” (32:33)
  • Key issues: defense and Dak’s health.
• Indianapolis Colts (8.5): UNDER
  • Mystery around Daniel Jones's (likely QB) Achilles injury timeline; “Cannot believe they hung a number this high.” (36:30)
• Pittsburgh Steelers (8.5): UNDER
  • Tomlin era over, plus roster uncertainty and aging defense.
  • Simon: “What are we going to do for our old Tomlin days? We’d always try to find reasons to bet the under. We don’t have to anymore.” (38:46)
• Tampa Bay (8.5): Pass, light lean to UNDER
  • Division is weak, but inconsistent offense, and Baker’s health is a concern.
• Minnesota, mentioned earlier: 8.5 wins; the Kyler Murray move justifies a more bullish view at plus money, but missed best value.

High Variance, Nine-and-a-Half Win Teams

[41:44–57:29]

• Chicago Bears (9.5): UNDER (smart) / OVER (fan heart)
  • Chad: “How do I not want to root in every part of my being for the Bears to go to the Super Bowl?” (41:53)
  • Simon: “I would take the under, you expect regression, but they just keep finding ways to win…” (42:21)
• Cincinnati Bengals (9.5): UNDER
  • Simon: “This is only about Joe Burrow playing a full season, which he historically never does.” (44:50)
  • Chad: “Can you even name a favorite Bengals’ offseason move? No one can.” (44:43)
• Denver Broncos (9.5): OVER (a Top Bet)
  • Chad: “I’d rather be betting the over on this team than the under.” (50:23)
  • Simon: “This is one of my bigger bets this offseason… I think they get to 11, 12 wins.” (51:03)
• Houston Texans (9.5): Simon: UNDER. Chad: OVER.
  • Debate about defense being strong enough; questions about schedule and division.
• Jacksonville Jaguars (9.5): Simon: OVER. Chad: UNDER.
  • Chad suspicious about last year’s improvement; Simon likes coaching and QB stability.
• New England Patriots (9.5): Initially UNDER, now reconsidering OVER.
  • Division (with tanking teams) may inflate win total. Simon: “If that gets to ten-and-a-half, that’s an automatic under for me.” (56:40)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Minnesota & Kyler Murray:
  • Chad: “The reputation of McCarthy… the McCarthy whisperer phenomenon… What is Kyler? Kyler is a better athlete than all of those guys, but he has that reputation of not being a guy who's committed to football. If Kevin McCarthy can do anything close... that's going to be really interesting.” (09:18)
• On the Giants’ “Harbaugh Bounce”:
  • Chad: “That feels like a Harbaugh bounce... If other than you think they are just going to completely revamp their culture because of what John Harbaugh is going to bring.” (23:40)
• On Cincinnati’s Offseason:
  • Simon: “Cheapest owners... The hype, it just reached too high… my whole job is to keep evaluating year to year, and every year it feels like [Burrow]'s regressed a little bit.” (44:50)
• On Bears’ heartbreak & hope:
  • Chad: “I know my head is telling me the under is the right side here but how do I not want to root in with every part of my being for the Bears?” (41:53)
• On Tampa’s volatility:
  • Simon: “High variance team, I could easily see them getting to 10 wins... if Baker is healthy... I’ll simply pass this one.” (41:44)

Best Bets & Major Leans (Summary)

[57:29–58:00]

• Colts under
• Giants under
• Bills over
• Denver over
• Cincinnati under

Simon: “Nailed it, right? Yeah, I think we found mostly agreement. That makes me happy.” (58:00)

Additional Memorable Moments

• Hilarious riffing on the futility of being a Panthers fan, “making guys quit their hobby podcast because it’s affecting their life that much negatively.” (18:06)
• Reflections on Jerry Jones' surprisingly “smart move” with Pickens and the Cowboys’ roster.
• Position debates: Are CeeDee Lamb & Jamar Chase top five receivers? Simon shares locker-room style observations about their personalities and play.

Timestamps of Notable Segments

• [02:52] – NFL Offseason Trade & Signing Recap
• [05:32] – Minnesota Vikings & Kyler Murray Impact
• [09:00] – Ravens’ Trade Saga & Books’ Win Total Moves
• [13:04] – Bottom 4 Win Total Teams Breakdown (Arizona, Miami, Raiders, Jets)
• [15:36] – Carolina Panthers Debate & Warning on Public Traps
• [18:45] – Cleveland, Tennessee, Atlanta, New Orleans, Giants, Washington
• [31:55] – Dallas Cowboys Line Movement & Roster/Division Analysis
• [36:19] – Colts Win Total: Daniel Jones Injury Impact
• [38:08] – Pittsburgh’s Future Post-Tomlin
• [39:29] – Tampa Bay’s Roster Variance
• [41:44] – Six Teams at 9.5 Wins: Bears, Bengals, Broncos, Texans, Jags, Pats
• [50:23] – Denver Broncos Overview; Simon’s Favorite Over Bet

Tone & Style

Chad and Simon engage in fast-paced, opinionated discussion laced with betting wisdom and playful, insider banter. Their sharp takes are balanced by humility and a willingness to admit uncertainty, making this an especially approachable yet informative look at early NFL futures markets.

For bettors and fans looking for sharp angles or simply a mid-March fix of NFL analysis, this episode is a must-listen—and a great guide for locking in (or avoiding) early win total bets.