Podcast Summary: Sharp or Square

Episode: NFL WEEK 10 Bets: Rams-49ers, Ravens-Vikings, Packers-Eagles and NFL Trade Deadline Reactions
Date: November 4, 2025
Hosts: Chad Millman and Simon Hunter

Overview

In this episode of Sharp or Square, veteran betting analyst Chad Millman and pro gambler Simon Hunter dive into the Week 10 NFL slate. They analyze key games, talk line movement, react to buzzy trade deadline deals, and openly reckon with a rough 1-4 week in their picks. The episode balances honest reflections, sharp stats, and an ever-evolving approach as Sunday’s kickoffs near.

Tone: Candid, analytical, humorous, self-deprecating — hosts sound both experienced and relatable, dissecting games like seasoned gambling lifers who’ve felt all the emotional and financial swings of a football season.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Reflecting on NFL Season Progress and Last Week’s Record

• Both hosts open with nostalgia and sadness that the season is more than halfway done, but Simon jokes, “This is overweight man season. Got it bundled up. I love Thanksgiving… Christmas… this is the best.” (03:50)
• They admit to a “stress-eating” September and confess last week’s picks (1-4) weighed heavily. Chad: “It took me until yesterday afternoon to really feel like, okay, I can start looking at these numbers again.” (05:53)
• Their season-to-date record in contest picks: 25-20.

2. Game-by-Game Betting Insights & Line Analysis

Thursday Night: Raiders at Broncos (-8.5)

• Both Chad and Simon immediately like Denver, even at the big number.
  • Simon: “I think they're over reading on a short week. I like this spot a lot for this Broncos team and a team that typically Bo Nix, he dominates in these exact spots.” (11:28)
  • Chad points to Denver’s strong defense and home field trends: “Home favorites of more than 9, 61% against the spread.” (12:30)
• Key angle: Sellers-raiders after recent trades; Raiders’ fatigue after overtime.

Atlanta vs. Indy (Berlin, Neutral Field)

• Original line was IND -6.5, now -5.
• Chad leans Falcons, citing wise guy movement and Atlanta’s opportunistic defense. Simon worries about line moving too much, wants ATL +6, warns off at lower numbers:
  • "If this gets to 4½, 4, I might have to take a position on the Colts. It’s just international games always is going to lean towards the favorites." (14:07)
• Both note Atlanta’s 1-for-10 on third downs got bailed out by Drake London’s return.

Buffalo at Miami (+9.5)

• Struggle to trust Miami but see inflated line; recognize the “supposed to bet” side is Dolphins as a home dog.
  • Simon: “Bills minus nine and a half, they can’t stop the run. They’re going against one of the best run-blocking scheme teams in all of football.” (17:59)
• Chad urges caution until trade deadline dust settles (esp. as WR Jaylen Waddle rumors swirl):
  • “I kind of want to wait until I know a little bit more about who's going to be playing.” (19:38)

Chicago Bears (-3.5) vs. Giants

• Both see a risky spot for the Bears given their weak defense and injury attrition.
• Chad: “This defense is so bad… Jackson Dart can get healthy against [them].” (20:23)
• Simon: “Anytime your defense gives up 42 points to Joe Flacco... I know it's lazy talk, but that's the point. We're saying your defense is so bad, I don't know if you can carry a -3.5 favorite right now.” (23:54)
• Both tentatively favor Giants +3.5.

Carolina Panthers (-5) vs. Saints

• Simon had liked Panthers, numbers making him nervous as sharp money shows on Saints.
• Carolina’s strong run game highlighted, Saints have weak rush defense (26:23).
• Simon: “My model has it at 7, so at least I'm getting a good number. That's what my computer thinks… But, I like this matchup for the Panthers.” (26:23)
• Chad: “Bryce Young is becoming a quarterback you can lean into when they're underdogs.” (28:41)

Jets (-1.5) vs. Browns

• Both see Jets as the play, especially at -1.5 before line moves.
• Simon: “This is a Jets number. I'd grab it before it moved.” (33:45)
• Both emphasize Browns’ offensive struggles and lack of trust in Cleveland’s young QB (Gabriel).

Texans (+1) vs. Jaguars

• Line moved toward Jags with C.J. Stroud in protocol.
• Simon: “We know we're supposed to bet Houston. I think we're both just so burned by watching ¾ of Davis Mills just do nothing...” (35:35)
• Both want to hold out for more positive line movement if Stroud confirmed out.

Tampa Bay (-2.5) vs. Patriots

• Chad’s “Chad’s Choice” — all-in on the Bucs.
• Chad: “A confident Baker at home as a short road favorite against an up and coming team. I think the coaching matchup is good… Give me the Bucs.” (38:02)
• Simon: “Anything under three I feel like is a great Bucs line. They just feel like... even better than that.” (40:00)
• Both mystified why the line hasn't moved to 3.

Key Breaking News:

• Colts trade two firsts to Jets for Sauce Gardner (42:19). Both hosts debate if he’s worth it, note it upgrades Colts’ suspect secondary, but question team-building strategy.

Baltimore (-4) vs. Vikings

• Steep line move from -3.5 to -4/+4.5.
• Chad can’t get to Vikings here: “Baltimore's defense since they came out of the buy… Lamar Jackson being back, is a greater indicator of the direction of this team…” (45:40)
• Simon: “Raven Lamar just himself owns NFC teams… Terrible opening line by the books.” (45:40)

Seattle (-6.5) vs. Cardinals

• Both want to back Arizona with Jacoby Brissett, but not if Kyler Murray starts. “I’m not betting Kyler Murray in his first start back after a big injury on the road.” (51:53)

Lions (-8.5) at Commanders

• Line jumped after QB injury (“Daniels worth 5½ pts”).
• Simon calls out Wash’s atrocious defense: “Feels like a game Detroit's going to win 40 to 9… Washington defense might be one of the worst in the league.” (54:51)
• Both wary about backing favorites after last week.

Niners (-3.5) vs. Rams

• Line moved up from -3. Chad wavers after handicapping both injury depletions and the Rams’ elite run defense: “How are they going to stop Matthew Stafford and how is Christian McCaffrey going to gain any yards?” (60:38)
• Simon thinks it’s a “spot to go against the Rams,” but hesitant given Niners’ defensive holes.

3. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Simon on autumn football: “As a guy who's overweight. This is overweight man season. Got it bundled up. I love Thanksgiving again, big guy. Love Christmas. Like I love this time of year with football. It actually matters and the games matter.” (03:50)
• Chad on stress-eating: "Dude, I haven't eaten a bowl of pasta period, let alone pasta at 4 in the morning. Wow, that's crazy." (05:27)
• Chad on Bears’ defense: “This defense is so bad... if not for the Bengals defense being so bad, the Bears do not win that game. And this is the kind of defense that Jackson Dart can get healthy against…” (21:52)
• Simon on Sauce Gardner trade: “Jets have gotten rid of their number one and number two corner in the last two weeks...” (42:51)
• Simon’s Simon Says pick: “Simon says give me the Broncos -8 and a half.” (08:21)

4. Timestamps for Key Segments

• [03:50] Simon on why he loves this time of year (“overweight man season”)
• [08:21] Rapid agreement: Broncos -8.5 vs. Raiders (Simon Says)
• [14:07] Atlanta vs. Indy Berlin breakdown
• [17:59] Buffalo/Miami line assessment, trade deadline caveats
• [33:45] Jets-Browns and importance of getting -1.5 early
• [38:02] Chad’s Choice: Bucs -2.5 over Patriots
• [42:19] Breaking: Sauce Gardner/Jets-Colts trade
• [45:40] Why neither can get to Vikings despite the number
• [51:53] Cardinals-Seahawks: Only taking AZ with Brissett, not Kyler
• [54:51] Detroit-Washington: Why Lions could roll but caution on another big favorite
• [60:38] Rams at Niners: The number says Niners, the injuries say beware
• [63:13] Sunday/Monday prime time spots: Chargers-Steelers, Eagles-Packers

5. Additional Themes and Takeaways

• PTSD from Over-Betting Favorites: After last week’s 1-4 “bloodbath,” both hosts are wary of big favorites but recognize some are justified.
• Sharp/Square Book Talk: Frequent reference to Hard Rock being a “sneaky sharp” book and tracking its line movements for pro indicators.
• Waiting for Line Moves: Several games circled, but no bets locked until clearer news (QB health, trade fallout).
• Trade Deadline Volatility: Active trades (esp. Sauce Gardner) affecting their confidence and lines in real time.

Recurring Weekly Tools

• Chad’s Choice: Tampa Bay -2.5 vs. Patriots ([38:02])
• Simon Says: Broncos -8.5 vs. Raiders ([08:21])

Who Did They Like? — “Leans” Recap

• Broncos -8.5 (“Simon says”)
• Falcons +6 (only if available), wait otherwise
• Dolphins +9.5 or +10 (reluctant, wait for injury/roster news)
• Giants +3.5 (but don’t feel great)
• Panthers -5 (prefer -4.5 or better)
• Jets -1.5 (grab early)
• Bucs -2.5 (“Chad’s Choice”)
• Ravens -4 or ML
• Cardinals +6.5 (only if Brissett at QB)
• Lions -8.5 (cautious favorite)
• 49ers -3.5 (spot, but ugly due to defensive attrition)
• Steelers +3 (if available, line moving)
• Packers -2.5 (initially, but monitoring pro–Eagles money)

Noteworthy Sharp Angles & Stats

• Short week + road dogs after overtime: 6-25 ATS (Simon on Raiders at Broncos) [09:33]
• Home faves >9 on Thursday: 61% ATS (Chad) [12:30]
• Pros hitting ATL at +6, line moving down (Ind-ATL)
• Hard Rock as early mover indicator - discussed throughout

Closing Thoughts

• Ongoing theme: This is an unusually fluid week given so many trade deadline ripple effects. Many “leans” may solidify by Thursday after more roster news and injury updates.
• Both hosts are clear that this is an info-gathering episode — listeners encouraged to act on numbers now (e.g. Jets -1.5, Bucs -2.5) where value is disappearing, but hold fire elsewhere until things steady.
• The pod ends with promises to dig deeper and adjust after Thursday’s fallout, aiming to rebound from last week’s dud.

End of Summary.