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Simon Hunter (3:42)

That'S odoo.com welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock that we are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined as always by my co host, my bff, my companion, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter. Hello Simon.

Chad Millman (4:09)

Chad. How we doing?

Simon Hunter (4:11)

Boy, I mean it was crazy in the first, first games today. I mean we're going to, we're going to dig in the second half. At one point in the early part of the second quarter, the combined scores of the games, the three games, was 78 to 3. So I just spent 90 minutes waiting for the game for their show to start. Listen, Simon. We loved the jets all week. We didn't put them in the final five. We loved the Texans all week. Did not put them in the final five. Unfortunately, there were others that we did love and we never wavered on. Our record for the day right now is two and two. We won with the Ravens minus three and a half. We went with the Dolphins. Kudos, Simon, for forcing that one in at +9 and a half. You were hinting at it all week. Lost with the Bucks minus two and a half. We got warned. We couldn't walk away and we lost with the Cardinals plus six and a half. That was a dead bet. Even I knew that was a dead bet. The eternal optimist knew that Was a dead bet. We have the Eagles plus two and a half against the packers on Monday Night Football. Last one's in with the Eagles, last one's out with the Niners, plus three and a half. All right, we're going to get to our early leans. Our review of how we did in all our picks. Your live comments from the chat, send them in. Let's get into it. Minnesota at Baltimore. Baltimore was three and a half. Listen, dude, that first series, we both know enough to know like you don't win a bet or lose a bet on the first series. We saw that throughout the day. J.J. mcCarthy was 3 for 4 for 76 yards on the first series, 17 of 38 for 172 yards the rest of the game. The reason we decided we liked the Ravens was because we didn't like J.J. mcCarthy. I feel like that generally came true today.

Chad Millman (6:16)

Yeah, we, we knew this was probably not the best spot for jj. Rick, coming off a big win in a game that we both agree it was, felt very fluky, but like he had a bunch of things go his way in that matchup. He actually didn't play that great and flip side couldn't get around good. The Vikings defense played and I said I don't know if that's something that can happen again back to back weeks. Like I just, I thought Detroit missed a bunch of opportunities in this week. The Ravens just didn't miss it. Right. Even if they were sloppy, like we said, that was the only word that could be come out slow, a little sloppy off the bye week. Um, you know, this Ravens team and.

Simon Hunter (6:51)

They did, by the way, they did like that opening drive. JJ looked great and the Ravens really couldn't tackle. So it's not like they came out perfect. But as the game went on, they continue to get better and better and Lamar Jackson got better and better and Derrick Henry got better and better and the Vikings could never find their ground.

Chad Millman (7:13)

Yeah, it's just interesting though, like these teams that play Thursday, the mini bye weeks, it's just, how are they going to come outperform early on the game because it is an extended rest. Right. A lot of these guys do go away for a couple days and take a little break. They just didn't look like they were in it in that first half. Defense, luckily was. They played really well.

Simon Hunter (7:29)

Yeah.

Chad Millman (7:30)

But then that second half, Lamar started making those key throws, started connecting in the red zone and it was, it was over.

Sponsor Voice / Ads (7:35)

Right.

Chad Millman (7:36)

They steamrolled him. So we were a little nervous about it. Not going to lie we just couldn't understand why these books Sunday morning were still at minus three and a half. I could not believe it. And we both bet it and joked about it and put it in. We're like, man, I hope this doesn't bite us. It just feels way too easy. But you saw late money came in. This number jumped to five. Had a lot of books before kickoff. So that was unlike the Tampa Bay game, which that number did not move an inch.

Simon Hunter (8:01)

It got close. It got to like two and a half, minus 120. We'll talk about that in a sec. To me, McCarthy, it's going to be interesting how we manage and handicap McCarthy because in that second half, he threw the pick on the opening drive. It was basically a punt, but it was a third down and he just let the ball go and it ended up in the hands of. I forgot who. It was deep in the. The Raven secondary that led to Humphrey. Was it Hunt? Yeah, it was Humphrey. That led to a field goal to put them ahead 12, 10. And then look right after that, the Vikings fumble a kickoff. It's 1910. And the Ravens basically took control from there. Derrick Henry played great. The. The one thing that I wonder if we have to think about Andrew Van Ginkel. The last two games has been really good for the Vikings, and it has been a difference in the first half. He made some really great plays. Last week against the Lions, he was making a lot of really good plays. We don't like the Vikings rush defense and. And they were not very good today. But Van Ginkel can make one or two plays over the course of a game where that challenges and stresses the opponent. The Vikings cannot figure out how to capitalize on. Those is the problem. I don't know if you recognize that when you were watching this game.

Chad Millman (9:30)

Maybe a little bit. I just honestly thought if the Ravens played better in the red zone, we would have won and covered this by 20 points. They just moved the ball up and down the field. And like you said, JJ was making stupid mistakes. Lamar, not that I thought he wasn't trying, but it felt like he had opportunities to run the ball. He said, I'm not wasting my body in this game. I'm not taking hits. I'll just throw it away or take that pass downfield instead of taking those opening lanes. So. Was pretty interesting.

Simon Hunter (9:57)

Yeah. The Vikings had eight false starts in this game. Eight false starts. So.

Chad Millman (10:05)

At home.

Simon Hunter (10:06)

At home. Yeah, at home. New England at Tampa Bay. All right, let's talk about this one. It never moved. It got up to minus 120. I thought it would get to 3. Like we were talking about it all week. We were nervous all week about this number. We got warnings from the wise guys. We never backed off. And honestly, even through the first half it looked. It looked like it was even. It looked like it was going to be a field goal game. Baker was perfect in that first drive. He was accurate. They ran easily A Mecca, you know, made a nice catch to score the touchdown. I was feeling pretty good after that first drive and the way they were playing in the first half overall except for the very last play of the first half. Then it became a variable coaching win to me.

Chad Millman (10:59)

Yeah, honestly, I feel like it came down to one play and variable almost outsmarted himself. I don't know if people saw it, if you were watching that snowball in Tampa Bay game, but basically they had a first down at the one and Drake May fell on the ball at the one to run the clock 40 seconds before they took their second snap. So basically use their first down as a nothing like took that risk and it came down to a fourth down play in the back of the end zone. Insane throw, Insane catch by Diggs. So yeah, this, this whole Drake May thing, I said it to you. He. He's giving me major, major Carson wentz vibes from 2017, the year Eagles won the Super Bowl. He is reckless with his body, he is not consistent as a thrower. But in big moments with pressure in his face, he is deadly accurate downfield like anything over 10 yards, whatever it is, he is been money for them and continuing this game. He had a couple of huge throws that saved us. But this really is a Josh McDaniels game like what they did with Henderson, the rookie that you know hasn't been seen the field because he can't pass block and they're forced into it with an injury to Stewardson. They were in a spot where they had the lead so they knew that, okay, we're going to run it anyway with the kid. Need two insane runs that totally flipped the game. Yeah, I mean just break away. Insane speed. So bad bet. Should have trusted our gut on it when it wasn't moving. We should have known better. Like we said, had a ton of warnings and yeah, it's. It's a tough loss.

Simon Hunter (12:41)

Well, look, the. What might be the most fun, interesting, exciting play of the year is Travion Henderson who's been getting bashed all season because he's so talented. But they can't put him in for all the reasons you just talked about. Breaks away for what? A 59 yard run that conceal the game.

Sponsor Voice / Ads (13:04)

And.

Simon Hunter (13:05)

And he's so far ahead of everybody on the Bucks defense as he's running for the touchdown that he has time to start veering to the middle of the field from the sideline and look over the Patriots bench to ask if he should score the touchdown with less than two minutes left and put them up by 12, I think. Or if he should slide and end the game and all the coaches waved him in and told him to go score the touchdown. I love that it was heads up. I love that he's paying attention to the coaches. I love that he got to score the touchdown. I love that he was so far ahead of everybody else that he had time to actually do this. That was remarkable. That just shows how fast the kid is.

Sponsor Voice / Ads (13:46)

Yeah.

Chad Millman (13:46)

And just if he gets going, my God. Maybe we need to start taking this Patriots team a little more serious because like we keep saying, between the coach and the quarterback, it's hard to find a better combo right on the afc, which is insane to say, but this Drake, this Drake may variable combo right now is like we always talk about. There's bad spots, supposed to be a bad spot in the weather, in the element. They played like the more veteran team. And that was the most shocking part of that game.

Simon Hunter (14:15)

That was a 69 yard run, by the way. And this was nice. You know, I've said this a few times. Before the year began, we set the line on variable coaching wins at two and a half. I feel like he's at least at four, if not five. And today was another one of those, just with that sort of thoughtful strategic clock management and then going for it at the end of the first half. That's, that's, that's 14 points they manufactured there because they got the touchdown instead of going for the field goal at the end of the first half. And then they open the second half and the second play is the Trayvon Henderson run. So now all of a sudden it goes from 14 to 10 to 21 to 10. And that's the ball game for them. They never look back again. And it's all because of the way Vrabel managed the game. Just brilliant. Brilliant guy. Love him.

Chad Millman (15:06)

Yeah. And I will say this, New England Patriots, next three games, Jets, Cincy, Giants, then their bye week. So if they can get to 11 and 2 because they're after their bye week, it is brutal. They got Buffalo, Ravens, jets, and then they finish off with Miami. So yeah, this is pretty surreal. There is a path for them to the one seed now like after you win this type of game.

Simon Hunter (15:31)

Oh yeah.

Chad Millman (15:32)

You drop only one or two more games rest of the year. There's a real chance New England's got that one seed and we are going to get some amazing value trying to fade them in the playoffs.

Simon Hunter (15:41)

Well, look, they're two and a half games up on the Bills because we're going to talk about the Bills next. But they've beaten the Bills and now they're up two games in the win column. They're, they're a much better team right now than the Denver Broncos. Right. Who are have a similar record. They're a much better team right now than the Kansas City Chiefs who are multiple games back of the Patriots right now. So this is getting. And there it'd be an interesting conversation about the Colts and the Patriots right now because I do not think the Colts were that impressive today and beating up the Falcons. We can talk about that a little bit later. But first let's talk about Buffalo at Miami. Buffalo was a 9 1/2 point favorite. You were insistent all week. Flowers for Simon. Flowers for Simon. It's not Flowers for Charlie. Not from Always Sunny. Flowers for Simon. Because you were insistent that we put the Dolphins in. It was the right spot. The one thing you said again and again, Devon Achan running the ball. The guy had 174 yards rushing today. Like this was not a Tua game. This was a Devon Achan game.

Chad Millman (17:04)

That was part of it. The, the big part too is the TUA being comfortable, whatever it is, when he is comfortable in these homesteads. That stat's crazy now. Now he's up to 4, 0 and there's exact spot as a dog straight up and against the spread, which is just crazy because I think they showed the last time he beat Josh Allen was in like 2020. So really unique spot for them. And yeah, it's the dream. Bet everything went our way in this game and everything. I've been saying that I looked like a fool last week because Josh Allen played so well against the Chiefs and I just. There's just something off about him this season and I saw it in this game again. Yeah, he just isn't what he was last year in the MVP caliber level which again that's impossible to live up to but that's the level he needs to play at for this team to win. They just have so many deficiency, not only a wide receiver but the defensive side like this. We talked about this run game for hn everything like that. It matched up Great for them. But, you know, I think it was 16 nothing. Heading into the fourth quarter, the Bills defense didn't play that bad. It just the fumbles, the turnover, everything just went so bad with this Bills team. So, yeah, dream scenario, you know, get the big win, big upset. Looks good for survivor pools. Unfortunately, I got knocked out on Carolina, so it didn't even matter. But this was a big play. Not many people gave Miami a chance here. And I got why you hated it. You felt gross and I had to bully into it. But it's like it was such a spot for this Dolphins team. And you saw before kickoff. Yeah, we did the show, I think at 9am it was plus nine. It was plus seven and a half by kickoff. Yeah, and this is with all the teasers parlays. All the suckers are going in late, hammering that Bill side. And it's never good. You get that much reverse line action, especially on a big log dog like that. Yeah, that. That was a good one. But yeah, like, that's. We joke all the time. That's the dream for betting a dog, you know, start the game a 130 lead. And everything kept going wrong from the Bills from that point forward. So, yeah, needed that win.

Simon Hunter (19:06)

Tua was 10 of 14 for 131. I think in the first half, the Bills had 90 total yards. In the second half, how many times do you think Tua threw the ball?

Chad Millman (19:18)

Three.

Simon Hunter (19:19)

He threw it seven times. Yeah, that's it. In the entire.

Chad Millman (19:23)

I mean, they didn't need it, right?

Simon Hunter (19:24)

They didn't need it, right. And then the Bills finally drive in the middle of third and Josh Allen throws that pick in the end zone that made Matt Mitchell want to drink a can of paint while he was sitting in his basement. Painting the basement after all this water damage. And like, it was just he. He had made so many plays to get them in a position to score on that drive. And then through this weird pick, they had a weird fourth and one where they were set up in that sort of snowplow formation where they go for it. And then instead he rolled out and threw a pass, a alley oop into the middle of the field that fell to the ground. He fumbled the ball with seven minutes left, down 10 while fighting for extra yards after getting seven or eight on a third and one.

Chad Millman (20:09)

I mean, it just ne. Everything went wrong.

Simon Hunter (20:11)

Everything went wrong. It was just nothing. Nothing went right. They could not get close. In my head, though, going into the fourth quarter, I'm still like. The Bills could still score three touchdowns and cover this Number I was like, I had so little faith in the Dolphins that I just was doing the gambler's math. You know what? I didn't do gambler's math for Arizona. Plus six and a half against Seattle because. Oh my Lord. Down 21 in the first quarter from a opening drive. Touchdown. A Brissette sack and fumble and 18 yard drive. That leads to a punt. That leads to another long Seattle drive. And then the first minute of the second quarter. The same guy who forced the first fumble and scoop and score on Brissette, Tyrese Knight for the Seahawks and the same guy who scored in that first fumble to Marcus Lawrence. They bited up, did it again. So it was 28 nothing 15 minutes into this game.

Chad Millman (21:26)

Yeah, we, we obviously picked a really bad spot to back Brissette. They flashed the record as dominant Seattle's defense has been this year. They had zero touchdowns scored. Like you said, they had two in the first quarter. Just terrible, terrible bet. Totally walked into it. I was hoping to avoid this game or the 49ers game won the 49ers game. Couldn't avoid this one. We loved it all week. I'd bet it all week. And yeah, it's, it's the worst. Like when you back these dogs and they're down 21 nothing in the first quarter, even if you want to lie to yourself, there's just no scenario. Like you need a total meltdown for their team. And even the Seahawks tried to give it back.

Simon Hunter (22:07)

Yeah, they did a few times. A lot of turnovers and like, yeah.

Chad Millman (22:10)

They just kept, couldn't. They kept going for it. Fourth down in the red zone and just failing on a couple different times where they could have got back into. We had a chance at the back door and just slammed shut on us so bad, bad, bad. Like we said the afternoon, it was non contest in all three games and we happened to be on the dog and two of them that got absolutely rolled.

Simon Hunter (22:29)

It was 38, 15 when Sam Darnold threw a pick in the third quarter after the Cardinals had already had already scored a touchdown and a two point conversion. I'm not going to lie. Like when the Cardinals got that pick because it was deep in Seahawks territory, I'm like, okay, I started doing some math. Like maybe they get the touchdown, maybe they get the two point conversion. 38:23, like with, you know, a quarter and a half left in the game. Not, not impossible. And then they just couldn't convert on fourth down and it was over.

Chad Millman (23:02)

Good. You don't know. You don't want to waste any of your luck on that game. I'm glad we got rolled. That would have been a waste to try to use some of our, you know, just because it was like you said, it was deader than dead in that first quarter.

Simon Hunter (23:13)

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Simon Hunter (27:07)

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Simon Hunter (28:48)

All right, so we got the Eagles plus two and a half tomorrow night. We do have to address the Broncos, which was Simon Says. And when we ended the show on Thursday we were pretty confident that was going to be a Final five pick. And then we talked this morning and it wasn't a final five pick. I think you and I didn't communicate or actually we just decided it wasn't going to be a pick after the show and never made it into the Final five. And so we, that's really what happened.

Chad Millman (29:26)

There's no, yeah, yeah, we got done the show. You were very non committal. As much as I liked it, I think you were just being nice and you're like, I don't know. I don't know if I wanted to be in the five. And I was like, well, we can figure it out. And like I always say to people, if we do do our Thursday game, I will tweet it out beforehand just because I know people are working. They can't catch the show. I have no issue for our Sunday show. Obviously we don't want to be tweeting our picks, but Thursday, that's a tough spot to try to get people to listen and know where our pick is for that game. So I, I didn't know it was that. I didn't know we talked about it like that. I thought we just said we were thinking about putting them as a possibility. If it makes people feel better, they want to lie to themselves, just act like I switched out Denver and the Bucks. I mean, it's the same thing. Like it's, I get where they're coming from. We should be 2 and 3 right now. But I don't know. I never. There was a high possibility of us putting in the Broncos for sure, but I, I definitely sensed you were knock on middle and put it in. And yeah, like you said, we never even discussed putting in after the show and in the future, Thursday, Fridays, Saturday games. I'll try to tweet it out beforehand in case people don't catch the show for our putting a pick in those early games.

Simon Hunter (30:38)

Honest miscommunication. Matt Mitchell actually was adamant this morning before the Sunday show that we did it and then we overruled him and decided that we, that we ultimately just didn't want to put it in. Or at least I didn't want to put it in. And so Simon was non committal on it and so it just, it didn't make it in.

Chad Millman (30:58)

And again, we would own it. These people, they know the deal. We own our losses. We literally do a show recap in our picks every week. So I get it. Huge apology if people did think we did say that. But yeah, it's usually to get a bet in. Chad needs to be all in on it. I need to be on it. Especially if it's going to be a Thursday or Friday game.

Simon Hunter (31:18)

Yeah, apologies. Many, many apologies. We obviously exercise as much transparency as possible so when we screw it up, we want to make sure everyone's aware of how that happened and pull back the curtain. Lots of bad actors in the betting space. A game that we talked a lot about today and was the last one out. Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco San Francisco was a six point underdog by the time this kicked off. Niners went down early. Rams looked like they were playing seven on seven. Niners went down 14, nothing. They're finally driving. Mac Jones is looking like he's the best quarterback on the Niners and Dewan Jennings fumbles in Niners territory. All of a sudden they're down 21 nothing. And like they kept coming. They kept coming. They kept coming. The Niners did. Mac Jones at one point was like 27 of 30 or something like that. Christian McCaffrey was slicing and dicing. But this defense, they just, I felt bad for him. They couldn't, they couldn't make the plays. Stafford was awesome.

Chad Millman (32:28)

Yeah, like you said, the, I mean this, we talked before and the reason I wanted to get out of it just, I knew all the pros, the smart guys were on the other side and I Heard their vantage point of it, which did make sense. Stafford right now is just. He breaks the rules. He's. Yeah, he's just on a different level, I think they said. I don't know how long it's been, but I know for a fact he's the first quarterback in the last two years that has three straight games with over four touchdown passes in each game. So he's on a roll right now. That offense, Devonte Adams, Puka, fully healthy, Williams running back, it's just all clicking. And like you said, that 49ers defense, they gave us nothing. Mac Jones played pretty well. They get over three passing. Yeah, had two or three passing touchdowns. Was really getting Kittle involved. You know, they're just. It's just one of those days. So. Yeah, it's. I'm glad I got us to avoid it and take it out. I had a bad feeling about it. Just the noise I was getting about this one and I was just like, okay, I got to do something here because I can't let it. Like last week I didn't say anything because I. We had been on a little bit of a roll. I'm going to try to speak up whenever. It's just like, okay, we gotta. We gotta make a move here and get this one out. So. Would have been brutal. If the 49ers came back and covered and the Eagles lose the next night. I obviously would have like an idiot. But thank God we're sitting here. 2 and 2 still have a chance of 3 and 2 rather than 2 and 3. So the Snyders team, and we'll see next week if the seesaw continues. They just. That trend is insane. Since Christmas 2023, they're now 1 in 15 against the spread after a straight up win.

Simon Hunter (34:04)

Yeah, I'm sad for this team because they could be so good. And it's like, how did the Rams not have the same kind of injury luck as the Niners? Every year it's these two teams battling and every year it feels like the Niners are trying to overcome and come from behind because of some catastrophic injury. And it's happened again this year and it's just, it's just a bummer. Every year they lose another year of opportunity for someone who's brilliant. I think in Kyle Shanahan, Christian McCaffrey, it's just, it's devastating for that team.

Chad Millman (34:40)

I'll tell you this much. Whatever the billionaire billionaire owner did of the Rams with Stafford for that month before the season, remember, he was just like inside an oxygen tube or Whatever. He's gone for like a month and they were like, he's just resting for the season. Genius.

Simon Hunter (34:57)

I mean, give me one of those. Just give it to me.

Chad Millman (35:00)

Yeah, it's.

Simon Hunter (35:01)

I could use it. I could use it. Especially when it's like 4:30 and the sun is down and I'm already exhausted and want to go to bed and just get under the covers. So give me something. Whatever Stafford's got, I want it.

Chad Millman (35:14)

It's. Seriously though, it worked. Whatever it was.

Simon Hunter (35:19)

Guess what's working? The Chicago Bears and Ben Johnson and their ability to score in the final two and a half minutes of the game, no matter what the scenario and win. Because today, with 2 minutes and 17 seconds left, the Bears were down 20 to 10. 70 seconds. 77 seconds later, they were up 24 to 20. Comprehend that they scored a touchdown with 2 minutes 17 seconds left. Down 2017. Literally with 1 minute left, they scored the go ahead touchdown. That's ridiculous. And it was Caleb running it from 18 yards out for that go ahead touchdown. Look, I'm glad we had put in the contest because the contest line was three and a half. It was four and a half most of the week. I loved it. At four and a half you were against. You liked the Bears, especially when it was the contest line of three and a half. So I'm glad we didn't put it in. But these Bears are crazy and they should not have won this game.

Chad Millman (36:29)

Love it though. It's just there's such a fun team. Like you said, 14 points in that five minutes. And yeah, this the way they play. Like they just never give up. And that's what soaks fun. When you have a winning culture. You always believe even when you're having a bad day. And like you said, Dart was doing whatever he wanted. Right. He kind of got into that mode with using his legs and like you said, they just couldn't stop it. He's just such an asset using his legs. And that's what bit him though. He took a hit. They had to bring in Russell Wilson and he is just atrocious. Terrible. Totally terrible. So Bears incredible win. Like you said, the number was four. A bunch of people pushed out there. The under which we talked all week. Weather under got scary at the end there, but it covered every number, even the closing line. I think it closed at 44 and a half. Covered that number as well. So yeah, really, really fun game. And yeah, this Bears team is magic. Like you always joke, even if you limp into the playoffs, who cares? You just get Caleb into the dance, let him get a little taste of the speed and how different it is and something to build on heading into the off season. And yeah, you guys to me are a year early. Really exciting times for the Bears. And yeah, the hope is you don't fall off a cliff here because this is the exact turning point of last year. You did. But with the new coaching regime, I just think this is another jumping off point to keep pushing forward. And you have a lot of divisional games, Ed. So really excited to see how this Bears team close the season out.

Simon Hunter (37:52)

We are three games beyond the turning point from last year because last year we were 4 and 2, loss of the Commanders, lost 10 in a row, season was over. We're 6 and 3, buddy. We're three games beyond last season's debacle. But boy, we got away with Jackson Dart because he was basically winning that game for the Giants until he scrambled, fumbled, was concussed deep in the Bears territory. That would have put them up at least 23 to 10. And you know, it never, never turned around for the Giants again. How about the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Houston Tex, who we loved all week? Unfortunately, they were not in the contest for us. Davis Mills was picked on the opening drive. It led to a field goal. The Jags scored a touchdown in the next drive, punt return. Then Texans down 29 to 10 in the fourth quarter. And the Jags jagged and man, it was freaking glory us to see the Jags do exactly what we thought they would do the entire freaking game. Only have it all compressed into 15 minutes.

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Chad Millman (39:10)

And definitely a game like you said, it feels like you're still one there because Davis Mills did everything in his power to give it away to start the game. And then special teams, total disaster. Like you said, this kid, you know, this Jaguars team was out Travis Hunter and Brian Thompson Jr. It's like they were down there, two receivers, they got no name, guys making plays against, you know, the number one defensive football. And it's just, I was killing myself. I was like, all right, that was a bad bet. How do I keep trusting this Texas team when I should have known better? But you know, that was a crazy line movement game. That number closed minus one on the Texans 30, 29.

Simon Hunter (39:50)

It opened minus one and a half, bounced to two and then closed it bounced to plus two and then closed the minus one.

Chad Millman (39:58)

And like again, we always talk about, I, I love these type of games because it lands around the one. They go for two, they don't get it and goes, oh my God, this is gonna happen. Like this is gonna be the type of middle people dream of. Like people took the Jags plus one and a half and they took Houston plus one half. They're gonna hit a one on the one on both sides and just Trevor Lawrence, Trevor Lawrence and the book are in the. In it together. Terrible turnover. Then the game guy walks in for a touchdown. They cover the number. I think they won 36, 29. Pretty insane for anyone.

Simon Hunter (40:33)

Second time this year after that Eagles game where a cover turned on a last second fluke play by a 400 pound guy. By a 400 pound guy who just didn't stop. He just like I am freaking scoring a touchdown here. What's crazy is in that fourth quarter the Texans scored 26 points. They outscored the Jags 26 to nothing in the fourth quarter, including that last second touchdown. In between that, other than that last drive between the start of the fourth and when the Texans took the lead, the Jaguars had, what was it, three plays for minus four yards, three plays for six yards. So they had six plays for two yards with a Jags touch with a Texans touchdown before, between and after those two drives. And Davis Mills, by the way, the drive, the game winning drive, 93 yards on 14 plays and they ended it with a Davis Mills 15 yard scramble. And they were only on the 15 yard line because they had been on the two and then had multiple penalties and plays for a loss that pushed them back to the 15. So it was like third and goal when he scrambled for the game winning touchdown. Total miracle by Davis Mills and the Texans. Kudos. Thank you. We didn't get in the contest, but it certainly did help our ledger for the day. Another team that helped our ledger for the day, the New York jets plus two against the Cleveland Browns. And listen, we said all week this wasn't a bet on the jets, it was a bet against Dylan Gabriel as an NFL quarterback. And that's kind of how it played out.

Chad Millman (42:28)

He did all right.

Simon Hunter (42:29)

I.

Chad Millman (42:29)

It's also just about stupid. Football is right. We got a special teams touchdown. F like a kick return followed by a pun return. It's just. Yeah, I know you can't make it up, so I'll take it. Like we said, that was a Jets spot. Jets number came through another game. We're both kicking ourselves. We didn't play in the contest but it was, it was minus one and a half. So it was tough to get there. But we screwed up. This was. We almost made this a rock and a hard place this morning.

Simon Hunter (42:56)

We took the and we almost made it brass balls. And we took Arizona instead.

Chad Millman (43:00)

So bad miss on us. We just, we loved it all week. We just always wanted the two and a half and Hard Rock never got there. We stayed the two. So, you know, this jets team is terrible. They are inconsistent, they are up and down, but they've won two games in a row at this point. And that's, you know, like we always say in the NFL, that's really hard to do. So we might have said this was a spot for them to steal it and win it, but, you know, as much crap we like to give Justin Fields, he did enough to win this game. And the defense shockingly got stops when they needed to. It's just. I can't believe it because I was worried the jets were going to roll over and die after they sold off all their defensive players and they didn't. They fought really hard in this game. And kudos to the Aaron Glenn keeping that unit unified.

Simon Hunter (43:41)

Justin Fields did enough, is strong.

Chad Millman (43:48)

He had 11 attempts.

Simon Hunter (43:49)

Justin Fields was 6 of 11.

Chad Millman (43:52)

Yeah.

Simon Hunter (43:53)

For 54 yards. 42 of those yards came on a screen pass to Breeze hall, who ran 42 yards for a touchdown. Justin. Justin Fields, like he. He had a couple of nice runs he made. You know, he didn't make the big mistakes. I don't know if he did just enough or he just stayed out of the way.

Chad Millman (44:23)

Stay out of the way. Honestly though, he had a couple of big third downs for us that. That's why we covered the storm. But there, it's their O.C. like, as much I want to blame Justin Fields, he basically almost said to him, you're not losing this game for us. I don't care if there's a guy wide open 10 yards downfield. Yeah, you're not throwing it downfield because the one time he did, he threw a pick. So it was a game where they just knew the Browns that had beat themselves and they got very lucky. Their special teams just dominated this matchup.

Simon Hunter (44:52)

This was the beauty of that game. The jets went for it on fourth and four from midfield with a minute left. The Browns had no timeouts. So if they went for it and they. They got it, the game was over. And they didn't have to worry about it because they drew the Browns offsides and they got the first down. Go jets, go. Good for them. They managed it brilliantly. They got all. They got the Browns to make all the mistakes they needed to make. That Browns team is just dreadful. Can't wait to better them at plus eight and a half at home against Baltimore in week 11. Shame, shame, shame. Simon, I'm going to go with the Cardinals offensive line. Shame, shame, shame, shame on you. Because when you've got an immobile veteran second string quarterback, the one thing you have to do is try to keep that immobile veteran second string quarterback upright or at least give him more than seven seconds to get the ball out. And when you in the first drive of the game and then in the first drive of the second quarter allowed the same guy to get pressure to create the same fumble and the same guy to scoop and score, that is an abject failure on the part of everybody from the interior offensive line to the offensive line coach to the offensive coordinator to the head coach to the quarterback. But mostly it's the offensive line. So shame, shame, shame on the Arizona Cardinals offensive line.

Chad Millman (46:41)

I'm going to shame Todd Bowles and that Bucks defense. I can't get over the scheme, the decisions he made in this matchup with Drake May. You should have beat him. And he even though they got a Turner rough from they got the pick off him, he still was having an off day and they couldn't take advantage of it because they couldn't stop Henderson, a guy we talked about, a guy that was in the doghouse for this team, they let him average 10.5 yards per carry.

Simon Hunter (47:14)

The Bucks, crazy.

Chad Millman (47:16)

A team that hadn't given up 100 yard rusher in like 30 straight games at one point. It's just I can't believe scheme wise they just let that go. They got beat by the run game in a game but once again that Drake May struggled. Mack Hollands had over 100 yards receiving against them. It just just an atrocious game plan by that Bucks defense on a day that you know as bad as up and down as Baker was still through for over 250 yards and three touchdowns like they should have been in this game shouldn't be able to win it, especially in that bad weather. And the defense just could not get key stops. And it all comes down to that fourth down like you talked about before half. Shame on you Todd Bowles and that Bucs defense.

Simon Hunter (47:53)

That's a good one. I wish I had thought of that one. That's a good one because Mack Holland's getting open in the middle of field and having multiple third down conversions and Drake May finding miracle ways to spin out of Vita Vea's hands and then reset and hit Mack Hollands. But that's a failure of the secondary and their ability to cover and that's that goes to Scheme and we love Todd Bowles and we thought this would be a great coaching matchup and Mike Vrabel just beat him. He out coached him in every sense of the word. He's been doing it all season to everybody he's coached.

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Simon Hunter (51:53)

Sharp or square Hero of the Week. You know who my hero is?

Chad Millman (51:58)

Simon, Tell me.

Simon Hunter (52:00)

Last week you graciously made me the hero because I chose Atlanta. Yeah, I am making you one of the Heroes of the week for getting us to choose the Miami Dolphins. Here's what I know. We've been doing the show long enough that when you start like talking about a game early in the week like the Dolphins and you keep bringing it up and keep bringing it up and like you're not being adamant, but you're not walking away from it and then all of a sudden you get closer to being adamant. I know enough to make that bet, so I made the bet and I know enough to put the game in the contest. So we put it in the contest. And that's because you did your thing. That was very impressive. The other guy who did his thing, who you said would do his thing, was Devon Achan, who I mentioned earlier had 174 yards rushing, multiple big gains, multiple touchdowns. It looked like he was playing against a peewee league team out there. They just could not tackle him. When they could catch him, they couldn't tackle him. When they couldn't tackle him, they couldn't catch him. It was, it was an impressive performance for sure.

Chad Millman (53:13)

I came with him and give it to him, but I have to already give him enough praise. But I keep got to go back to it. Just Stafford hero the week. I just can't get over what he did in this game. Like we should have backdoored that game in a million different ways and the guy just killed us. Wouldn't. Let's get back into it. 24 of 36, 280 yards, four touchdowns, no picks. Just he's out of this world right now. Got to be. If we wake up tomorrow, he's got to be the favorite for mvp. It's just incredible what he's doing at his age. Staying upright, staying healthy. And yeah, as an Eagles fan, definitely my biggest fear right now is this Rams team. We talk coming in the year like I put them the Eagles at the top just because of how well the Rams played last year and everything's improved. Their defense is tougher. Their offense is just a machine right now. So my only hope is just like the Patriots, maybe they're peeking a little too early. So we'll see coming down the stretch.

Simon Hunter (54:07)

Right Now, Drake May is plus 287 as MVP Matthew Stafford plus plus 300. So we'll see in the morning. Like it could easily turn that way. It feels to me like everyone just wants it to be Drake May.

Chad Millman (54:20)

It's the new toy. I'm about it. He deserves it. I agree with that, I guess.

Simon Hunter (54:24)

But look, if the if the Rams are the number one seed and Matthew Stafford leads the league in passing and leads the league in touchdown passes and he set a record today. He got set a personal record. Got to 400 career passing touchdowns. So good for him. Man, 37 years old, gray beard, freaking ballin'. Love it for him. He just looks like he's having so much fun. He's playing an entirely different game. They had a great Tom Brady who I think is actually getting better. Not getting better, he's just good. He had a great comment about when you're that old. The number of times you've seen every defensive coordinator, the number of times you've seen every matchup, the number of signs you've seen every scheme, you have an answer for it every single time. There's nothing that is confusing for him. You never saw him get rattled today. It was amazing.

Chad Millman (55:23)

Yeah, it's one of my hero's favorite saying from Bane. I was wondering what would break first your body or your mind. And with him it's. It's all about the body. If his body doesn't break, you can't not break Stafford's mind. This man is seen it all. Like you said, he's got plays for days. When the plays don't work out, he always knows where the next guy is and who is open on the defensive scheme once he sees a play out. So yeah, if they can keep him upright, he stays healthy. This is gotta be the odds on favorite right now in the nfc. They're just so dominant right now.

Simon Hunter (55:54)

This Rams team, very good team. Simon says with Denver -9 and a half. We've worked through that tragedy, Chad. Choice was Tampa minus two and a half. Terrible brass balls was Arizona plus six and a half. Terrible rock and hard place was San Francisco plus six. Sharp versus Square. I had San Francisco, I got it at four and a half. You had Miami plus nine and a half. Woohoo. You are my hero.

Chad Millman (56:20)

Yeah.

Simon Hunter (56:22)

Did I ever tell you you're my hero. Our favorites parlay. Panthers. Lions yes. Ravens yes. Bucks no. Bears yes. Underdog Parlay jets yes. Houston yes. San Francisco no. I'll take it though. Yeah, totally, totally. All right. We talked. A lot of the questions tonight were about the Broncos. Again, we apologize we didn't manage that well. We will manage it better going forward. Early leans for you, Simon. A couple. A couple stood out to me already.

Chad Millman (57:03)

Yeah, we were so hot last week on these early liens. Let's see if we can keep it rolling, buddy. Last week.

Simon Hunter (57:09)

Well, remind people last week. Yeah, remind people what we did.

Chad Millman (57:12)

We had Rams minus three, Ravens minus three and somehow we had the Lions minus three. That was before obviously Daniels got hurt in that game. I. I like the dogs. I'm not gonna lie to you, Chad. I like the dogs. This coming week and there's some really gross ones that just jump out instantly I'm gonna take. Which we start with Commanders. They're plus two right now on the road against that Miami team.

Simon Hunter (57:41)

Well, don't forget that game is Madrid.

Chad Millman (57:46)

Okay. I'll still like the Canadians a little bit, but again. What. I've been very lucky. I've been bet like I bet Elena last week plus six and a half and somehow that hit. I got very lucky on that one, even though I thought it was home. So yeah, I just. That one jumped out for a gross dog that people are gonna hate. Jaguars are going to be plus one and a half right now at home against this Chargers team. We'll see how they perform tonight. This Chargers team But I just. I feel like the Jacks front would actually give that Chargers team a lot of problems. I think you nailed it when you said Cleveland plus eight and a half.

Simon Hunter (58:24)

I know.

Chad Millman (58:25)

How can you not? And I know we're all bitter. We're all very bitter. This Denver Bronco team, Denver Broncos plus four plus three and a half right now against the Chiefs at home.

Simon Hunter (58:38)

Do you feel like the Cleveland number is going to move up? Because, I mean, I don't know how. It doesn't. With Baltimore winning at Minnesota today and Cleveland losing to the Jets. It just feels to me like that number is going to get bigger.

Chad Millman (58:51)

It could, but that's, it's. It's going to be an amazing spot for this Cleveland team. So, I mean, it could be like Miami, I hope. Like I got a couple tens on Miami. That's how high that number got. Yeah, you could be right here. This could get this giga push. The tank is no. 1 only pros are going to be taking Cleveland here.

Simon Hunter (59:09)

Totally.

Chad Millman (59:10)

I keep saying, I know it's lazy, people hate it, but this Cleveland team is totally different. And it keeps proven to be now true on the road and at home. So that feels like a great spot. Great match for them. Just like it does with Denver. Yeah. Next week. These games are incredible. Like, I, I don't want to give an opinion yet, but I kind of like Detroit against the Eagles. They're plus one and a half on the road against this Eagles team. I'm not rushing to take it because the Eagles play really well. I think we could get a two and a half three.

Simon Hunter (59:37)

Yeah.

Chad Millman (59:38)

Because again it's. It's golf on the road, outdoors playing against a really good defensive front. So that one intrigues me where it's like this right now is an Eagles number, but I could see us getting a two and a half three on this Lions team and I'd take a position on them.

Simon Hunter (59:52)

Arizona, there are threes available. Arizona plus three at home against San Francisco. Obviously we're talking about blowout versus blowout. Ish. But I'm not afraid to back Arizona again. I think this was a.

Chad Millman (60:11)

That's probably the right read. You know, I can't do it right now because I'm just so bitter, but that's probably the right read.

Simon Hunter (60:17)

That was the. To me, the big games, unfortunately that stood out were Cleveland plus eight and a half and Arizona. If you can find the three, it's two and a half most places. But if you could find.

Chad Millman (60:27)

No, I like the dogs. Honestly, I like the dogs. This upcoming week. There's some some juicy numbers there.

Simon Hunter (60:32)

So frustrating. So frustrating. All right, so reminder. We won with Baltimore minus three and a half and Miami plus nine and a half. We lost with the Bucks minus two and a half and with the Cardinals plus six and a half. We have the Eagles plus two and a half remaining. For tomorrow night. We are two and two for the week. This has been Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock bet, part of the Volume Podcast Network. We will be back with Sharper Square on Tuesday to go over the entire NFL slate. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like the video. Subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you get your pods. Rate, Review, Subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.

Chad Millman (61:19)

Hey.

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This podcast is sponsored by PayPal. Okay, let's talk holiday shopping. When you want to make the most of your Money, head to PayPal's app before you check out. They give you the flexibility to pay in four no fees, no interest. And this is big. Bigger than the 12 foot snowman on your lawn right now. You can get 5% cash back when you pay later with PayPal. So whether it's the must have merch or for that signed jersey you've been eyeing, PayPal helps you make the most of your money this holiday. Save this offer in the PayPal app expires 1231. See paypal.com promoterms Subject to approval. Learn more at paypal.com payin4paypal inc.nmls910457 Limu Emu and Doug Here we have the Limu Emu in its natural habitat helping people customize their car insurance and save hundreds with Liberty Mutual. Fascinating. It's accompanied by his natural ally, Doug.

Chad Millman (63:07)

Uh, Limu is that guy with the binoculars watching us.

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Chad Millman (63:18)

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Chad Millman (64:24)

This is an iHeart podcast.