Sharp or Square – NFL Week 10 Reactions

Podcast: Sharp or Square
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Episode: NFL WEEK 10 REACTIONS – Bills-Dolphins, Ravens-Vikings, Jaguars-Texans, Rams-49ers, Bears-Giants and more
Date: November 10, 2025

Overview

Main Theme:
Betting experts Chad Millman and professional gambler Simon Hunter break down all the action from NFL Week 10, sharing results on their contest picks, evaluating sharp vs. square sides, and analyzing the biggest storylines and betting lessons. They specifically focus on the wiseguy angles, line movements, and post-mortems on their hottest and coldest calls.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Contest Performance & Recap

• Record: Currently 2-2 pending Eagles MNF (+2.5 vs Packers). Wins: Ravens -3.5, Dolphins +9.5; Losses: Bucs -2.5, Cardinals +6.5.
  • “We loved the Jets all week. Didn’t put them in the final five. We loved the Texans all week. Did not put them in the final five... Our record for the day right now is two and two.” (04:11)
• Monday Night Left: Eagles +2.5 remaining.

2. Deep Dives by Game

Ravens vs. Vikings (Baltimore -3.5)

• Betting Experience: "We decided we liked the Ravens because we didn’t like J.J. McCarthy. I feel like that generally came true today." (05:44)
• Analysis: J.J. McCarthy flashed early but regressed. Ravens grew stronger as game progressed; Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry improved after a slow start post-bye.
• Key Insight: Minnesota’s defense (Van Ginkel) made isolated plays, but their run defense remained an issue. “Vikings cannot figure out how to capitalize… on those is the problem.” (08:01)
• Notable Stat: Vikings had 8 false starts–at home. (09:57)

Patriots at Buccaneers (Tampa -2.5)

• Regrets: Ignored sharp warning signals. Line did not move all week, should have read that as trouble.
• Key Play: “Travion Henderson… breaks away for what? A 69 yard run to seal the game… and he’s so far ahead he looks at the Patriots bench to ask if he should score or slide.” (13:05)
• Coaching Masterclass: Vrabel’s clock management and aggressive decision-making seen as pivotal: “He’s at least at four, if not five [coaching] wins this season.” (14:15)
• Drake May: Effusive praise for his performance under pressure; compared to Carson Wentz rookie heroics.

Bills at Dolphins (Buffalo -9.5)

• Sharp Call: Simon insisted on Dolphins all week.
  • “Flowers for Simon… you were insistent that we put the Dolphins in. It was the right spot.” (16:10)
• Devon Achan: Ran wild (174 yards). “This was not a Tua game. This was a Devon Achan game.” (16:47)
• Tua’s Underdog Home Stats: Now 4-0 ATS as a home dog.
• Josh Allen: Hosts see something "off" with his play this season post-MVP caliber year. “He just isn’t what he was last year... That’s the level he needs to play at for this team to win.” (17:04)
• Momentum: Dolphins controlled game from the outset; Bills crumbled with turnovers and red-zone failures.

Cardinals at Seahawks (Arizona +6.5)

• Admission: “We obviously picked a really bad spot to back Brissett.” (21:26)
• Immediate Downfall: Multiple early turnovers, defense overwhelmed, dead bet.
• Lesson: “When you back these dogs and they’re down 21-nothing in the first quarter… there’s just no scenario.” (21:52)

Rams at 49ers (SF +6)

• Line Movement: Niners were a rare home dog; Stafford’s hot streak made hosts wary.
• Stafford Praise: “He’s just on a different level… 24 of 36, 280 yards, four touchdowns, no picks… If we wake up tomorrow, he’s got to be the favorite for MVP.” (53:13)
• Injury Lament: Consistent frustration at Niners' continual injury issues.

Bears at Giants

• Wild Finish: Bears stormed back from down 20-10 with “14 points in five minutes… this Bears team is magic.” (36:29)
• Game Management: Praised for resilience, using star rookie QB’s legs.
• Playoff Hopes: Realistic excitement for getting Caleb Williams playoff experience, seeing this as a “year early” for promised development.

Jaguars at Texans

• Wild Line Movement: “That number closed -1 on the Texans… It opened -1.5, bounced to 2, bounced to +2, closed -1.” (39:58)
• How It Unfolded: Texans roared back from down 29-10, outscored Jags 26-0 in 4th quarter, wild game for live bettors.
• Play-By-Play: Davis Mills 93-yard, 14-play game winner.

Jets at Browns

• Angle: “Not a bet on the Jets, it was a bet against Dylan Gabriel as an NFL quarterback. And that’s kind of how it played out.” (42:16)
• Key Sequence: Special teams touchdowns propelled Jets; Browns made every mistake possible.

3. Betting Theory & Sharp/Square Distinctions

• Ignoring Market Signals: The Bucs loss addressed as a cautionary tale about ignoring frozen lines despite sharp warnings.
• Dog Psychology: Simon’s confidence in Dolphins and Texans explained by reverse line movement and public bias.
• Late Money: “You saw late money came in. This number jumped to five… That was unlike the Tampa Bay game, which… did not move an inch.” (07:36)
• Puzzling Outcomes: Simon: “That’s the dream for betting a dog. Start the game a 130 lead… And everything kept going wrong from the Bills from that point forward.” (18:37)

4. Memorable Quotes

• “Travion Henderson… so far ahead of everybody on the Bucs defense… he had time to look over at the Patriots bench and ask if he should score.” – Simon Hunter (13:05)
• “Everything went wrong. Nothing went right. They could not get close.” – Simon Hunter on the Bills (20:11)
• “If his body doesn’t break, you can’t not break Stafford’s mind. This man has seen it all.” – Chad Millman (55:23)
• “That’s the dream for betting a dog, you know: Start the game, a 130 lead. And everything kept going wrong from the Bills from that point forward.” – Simon Hunter (18:37)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 04:11 – Week 10 Picks Review & Contest Record
• 05:44 – Ravens vs Vikings Analysis
• 08:01 – Van Ginkel & Vikings defensive notes
• 10:59 – Patriots at Bucs, Henderson’s game-sealing run
• 12:41 – Drake May & Josh McDaniels praise
• 14:15 – Vrabel “coaching wins” count
• 16:10 – Bills/Dolphins deep dive; Simon pushed for Miami
• 19:19 – Tua’s first/second half splits
• 21:26 – Cardinals/Seahawks “dead bet”
• 29:26 – Broncos pick miscommunication transparency
• 32:28 – Rams/49ers wild swings and Stafford’s hot streak
• 36:29 – Bears miracle comeback
• 39:58 – Texans line movement, comeback details
• 42:16 – Jets/Browns special teams-fueled win
• 46:41 – Shame segment: Cardinals O-line, Bucs defense
• 53:13 – Heroes of the Week; Stafford’s MVP case
• 57:12 – Early Leans for Week 11

Notable Segments

Shame Segment (46:41)

• Chad: Blames Cardinals' O-line for failing to protect Jacoby Brissett; Simon: Bucs’ defense/scheme blamed for loss, especially for allowing backup Henderson to dominate.

Heroes of the Week (51:53)

• Simon: Praises Chad for Dolphins call, Devon Achan’s explosive performance.
• Chad: Matthew Stafford hailed for his “out of this world” performance, his durability and leadership of Rams’ resurgence.

Week 11 Early Leans (57:12)

• Dogs Featured: Commanders +2 vs Dolphins (Madrid), Jaguars +1.5 vs Chargers, Browns +8.5 vs Ravens, Broncos +4 vs Chiefs, Lions +1.5 @ Eagles, Cardinals +3 vs 49ers (if available).
  • “I like the dogs. I’m not gonna lie to you, Chad. I like the dogs this coming week and there’s some really gross ones…” (57:09)

Tone & Style Highlights

• Conversational, playful banter, heavy focus on “how it felt betting”, lines that “smelled funny”, and sharing the mental swings of live betting.
• Admits mistakes: “We own our losses… huge apologies if people did think we did say that.” (30:58)
• Emphasis on transparency: “We want to make sure everyone’s aware of how that happened and pull back the curtain.” (31:18)

Takeaways for Bettors

• Trust sharp line movement and warnings from wiseguys.
• Don’t bet blindly on teams you “love” if the market doesn't agree.
• Contest strategy: Look for big line moves and public bias to find value.
• Always evaluate the psychology around “gross” dogs and inflated favorites.

Conclusion

Millman and Hunter deliver a candid, thorough recap of NFL Week 10 through the lens of seasoned sharps, breaking down their process, hits, and misses with humor and humility. Whether it’s celebrating improbable covers, warning against sharp-signal ignorance, or marveling at Stafford’s late-career show, this episode is packed with real lessons for bettors and fans alike.

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