Sharp or Square – NFL Week 11 Bets: Patriots-Jets, Broncos-Chiefs, Bills-Bucs, Lions-Eagles, Bears-Vikings and More

Podcast: Sharp or Square (iHeartPodcasts and The Volume)
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Date: November 11, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the NFL Week 11 betting landscape. Hosts Chad Millman and professional sports bettor Simon Hunter break down marquee games, examine public vs. sharp money, highlight evolving storylines, and debate which sides offer the greatest value. The conversation is analytical, numbers-focused, and full of practical betting insight for both casual and serious gamblers. Listeners get a clear sense of each host's process—how they move from first instincts to final picks, when they pivot, and where they're truly confident.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Opening Banter & Reflections (03:36–11:21)

Chad opens on Michael Ray Richardson’s passing, personal NBA memories, and the 80s' drug scandals, making a broader point about changing league controversies.
Simon admits he didn’t recognize Richardson, pokes fun at his own “vulnerability” on early-morning podcasts, and the nuances of making pivots in betting picks based on new info.
The duo discuss their 3-2 week in picks, current season record (28-22), and the importance of being flexible with evolving info.

“Thank god we cut off because we can't have these back-to-back losing weeks—been brutal... these are the games [Eagles] are built to win. We just pull these teams into the mud.”
– Simon (07:05)

Notable Games Breakdown

1. Jets at Patriots – Thursday Night Football

[13:29–15:19]

Line: Patriots -11.5
Chad: “I’m having a hard time getting to the Jets even with a massive, massive number.”
Simon: Leans Jets due to inflated line, but warns the spot is a “letdown trap.” Patriots are “better across the board,” but it’s “a lot of points” for rookie Drake May to cover.
Both ultimately agree: avoid as a final pick, but strong consideration to Jets (+).

“This is just... yeah, you got to just bet the Jets. It’s bumped up too much. It doesn’t matter who’s on the field.”
– Simon (14:12)

2. Washington at Miami (in Madrid)

[15:19–18:38]

Line: Dolphins -2.5 (moved from -1.5)
Miami is considered public but the hosts lean their way due to Commanders’ horrendous run defense and Miami’s offense.
Both remain wary: “We always say we don't want to bet Tua as a favorite on the road.”
Lean: Dolphins under a field goal.

3. Cincinnati at Pittsburgh

[18:38–22:19]

Line: Steelers -4.5 (moved from -5.5)
Chad: Initially liked Bengals at +5.5; now less value.
Simon: Line should be closer to -3; Steelers’ defense reliant on turnover luck.
Agreement: Lean Bengals if the number’s high, otherwise possibly the over.

4. Carolina at Atlanta

[22:19–28:31]

Line: Falcons -3.5
Extended debate on both teams’ offensive outlook and futures.
Chad: Initial lean to Panthers based on divisional dog, the hook, and instinct, but worried about Bryce Young regressing.
Simon: Model likes Panthers; has concerns about both teams.
Pros lean Panthers with the hook.

“He’s just not making the right reads... It comes back down to the height stuff... it’s true.”
– Simon on Bryce Young (23:58)

5. Houston at Tennessee

[34:56–38:27]

Line: Titans +7
QB uncertainty (Stroud in concussion protocol); money pouring in on Titans.
Simon: Loves Texans if number drops; great matchup if Simmons is out.
Chad: Slight hesitation due to unknowns but willing to bet Texans if key absences are confirmed.

6. Green Bay at NY Giants

[38:27–42:13]

Line: Giants +7.5 (moved from +8.5)
Giants in chaos; coaching turmoil.
Simon: Likes Packers, especially if Giants start Russell Wilson.
Chad: Notes Packers run game matches up well with Giants’ defensive weakness, but recognizes big number risk.

7. Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings

[44:20–45:34]

Line: Vikings -3
Chad: Leans Vikings below a field goal, tries to not be blinded by Bears fandom.
Simon: Leans Bears due to recent form and moneyline value; calls line a “pick ‘em.”
Both agree: line is right, likely a pass.

8. Tampa Bay at Buffalo

[46:33–49:58]

Line: Bills -5.5
Chad: Thinks Bucks overly dinged for last loss, line “should be lower.”
Simon: Agrees, suspicious of Bills respect.
Both lean Bucs but want to confirm injury situations and market info later in week.

9. Chargers at Jaguars

[50:00–51:57]

Line: Jaguars +3
Simon: Jags are the “right side” at +3 but hates betting this.
Chad: Agrees, won’t overthink recent Chargers’ win, will fade them.

10. Seattle at LA Rams

[51:57–54:44]

Line: Rams -2.5 (moved down from -3)
Wiseguy money coming in on Seattle; matchup and pass rush edge.
Chad: “Really like Seattle’s defense.”
Simon: Matchup good for Seahawks, especially pressuring Stafford up the middle.

11. San Francisco at Arizona

[54:44–58:26]

Line: Arizona +2.5 (opened at +3)
Both like the home dog after a blowout loss, especially at +3, but wary at anything lower.

12. Cleveland at Baltimore (Chad’s Choice)

[62:49–66:23]

Line: Browns +8
Chad: Browns “just a different team at home.” Trend supports big divisional dogs.
Simon: Agrees—says Baltimore will be overvalued after a big win, expects close game.

“We actually see this with our eyes. The Browns defense is just a different team at home.”
– Chad (63:27)

13. Kansas City at Denver

[66:23–68:12]

Line: Broncos +3.5
Simon: Likes Denver; expects more public money on Chiefs to drive line up.
Chad: Confirms Simon’s lean.

14. Detroit at Philadelphia (Primetime Spotlight)

[69:00–73:35]

Line: Eagles -2
Chad: Liked Detroit initially due to Eagles’ offensive inconsistencies.
Simon: Swings to Eagles as money and pros pile in on Philly, questions Detroit’s record against strong defenses.

15. Dallas at Las Vegas ("Simon Says")

[73:42–76:07]

Line: Raiders +3.5
“Simon Says” pick is Las Vegas. Simon’s strategy continues to fade Dallas as >3-pt favorites; expects public - heavy money on Cowboys, loves home dog.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On Michael Ray Richardson:
“He is just truly dust in the wind, that guy.”
– Simon (06:00)
On early-week betting evolution:
“A lot can change, information can change...we can’t have back to back losing weeks that have been brutal.”
– Simon (06:57)
On Josh Jacobs/Packers run attack vs. Giants:
“LaFleur might want to give Josh Jacobs the ball many, many, many, many times. And the Giants weakness...was being able to stop the rush.”
– Chad (42:13)
On Chargers-Jags:
“We missed betting on the Chargers last week when we knew we should have...Now we’d normally want to bet them as road favorites... But I don’t care about wins and losses—I care about my wins and losses.”
– Chad (50:53)
On Seattle defensive edge over Rams:
“I really like Seattle’s defense. They’re so freaking good and I think they’re better than the Rams defense, especially from the pass rush.”
– Chad (54:44)

Timestamps for Key Segments

[03:36] Show proper begins, NBA reflections, podcast ethos
[06:57] Week 10 recap, Eagles’ ugly wins, betting pivot discussion
[13:29] Jets-Patriots preview ("massive, massive number")
[15:19] Washington-Miami, international, fading Commanders
[18:38] Bengals-Steelers line movement and handicapping
[22:19] Panthers-Falcons debate
[34:56] Texans-Titans and injury speculation
[38:27] Packers-Giants coaching drama, number talk
[44:20] Bears-Vikings—line properly set, both lean away
[46:33] Bucs-Bills, are Bucs undervalued?
[50:00] Chargers-Jags, masterclass in fading
[51:57] Seahawks-Rams: wiseguy money, defensive matchups
[54:44] 49ers-Cardinals: home dog thoughts
[62:49] Browns-Ravens: Chad’s Choice; home dog theory
[66:23] Chiefs-Broncos: Denver’s divisional value
[69:00] Lions-Eagles: shifting leans, pro-vs-public analysis
[73:42] Cowboys-Raiders: "Simon Says" pick and Dallas fade logic
[76:58] Thursday lookahead, line watch, closing thoughts

Closing Notes

The episode is filled with actionable advice, nuanced takes on line movement, and excellent banter. Both hosts emphasize the need to be nimble as information changes, especially regarding injuries, quarterback news, and market movement. They tease deeper dives on several games for their next show, especially pending injury reports and key number swings.

Key Games to Watch for Line Moves/Final Picks:

Houston (-7) if more injury news breaks
Arizona (+3) if available
Denver (+4 or higher)
Las Vegas (+3.5 “Simon Says”)
Cleveland (+8.5) as Chad’s Choice
Thursday night: Jets if line hits +13

Overall Tone: Analytical and dynamic yet approachable, with plenty of self-deprecating humor between Chad and Simon, who balance sharp process and emotional pitfalls of NFL betting.

This summary provides a comprehensive yet digestible guide to all the critical content, picks, and personalities in the episode—perfect for listeners and bettors looking for a smart, insightful breakdown ahead of NFL Week 11!

Sharp or Square – NFL Week 11 Bets: Patriots-Jets, Broncos-Chiefs, Bills-Bucs, Lions-Eagles, Bears-Vikings and More

Podcast: Sharp or Square (iHeartPodcasts and The Volume)
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Date: November 11, 2025

Episode Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Opening Banter & Reflections (03:36–11:21)

Chad opens on Michael Ray Richardson’s passing, personal NBA memories, and the 80s' drug scandals, making a broader point about changing league controversies.
Simon admits he didn’t recognize Richardson, pokes fun at his own “vulnerability” on early-morning podcasts, and the nuances of making pivots in betting picks based on new info.
The duo discuss their 3-2 week in picks, current season record (28-22), and the importance of being flexible with evolving info.

“Thank god we cut off because we can't have these back-to-back losing weeks—been brutal... these are the games [Eagles] are built to win. We just pull these teams into the mud.”
– Simon (07:05)

Notable Games Breakdown

1. Jets at Patriots – Thursday Night Football

[13:29–15:19]

Line: Patriots -11.5
Chad: “I’m having a hard time getting to the Jets even with a massive, massive number.”
Simon: Leans Jets due to inflated line, but warns the spot is a “letdown trap.” Patriots are “better across the board,” but it’s “a lot of points” for rookie Drake May to cover.
Both ultimately agree: avoid as a final pick, but strong consideration to Jets (+).

“This is just... yeah, you got to just bet the Jets. It’s bumped up too much. It doesn’t matter who’s on the field.”
– Simon (14:12)

2. Washington at Miami (in Madrid)

[15:19–18:38]

Line: Dolphins -2.5 (moved from -1.5)
Miami is considered public but the hosts lean their way due to Commanders’ horrendous run defense and Miami’s offense.
Both remain wary: “We always say we don't want to bet Tua as a favorite on the road.”
Lean: Dolphins under a field goal.

3. Cincinnati at Pittsburgh

[18:38–22:19]

Line: Steelers -4.5 (moved from -5.5)
Chad: Initially liked Bengals at +5.5; now less value.
Simon: Line should be closer to -3; Steelers’ defense reliant on turnover luck.
Agreement: Lean Bengals if the number’s high, otherwise possibly the over.

4. Carolina at Atlanta

[22:19–28:31]

Line: Falcons -3.5
Extended debate on both teams’ offensive outlook and futures.
Chad: Initial lean to Panthers based on divisional dog, the hook, and instinct, but worried about Bryce Young regressing.
Simon: Model likes Panthers; has concerns about both teams.
Pros lean Panthers with the hook.

“He’s just not making the right reads... It comes back down to the height stuff... it’s true.”
– Simon on Bryce Young (23:58)

5. Houston at Tennessee

[34:56–38:27]

Line: Titans +7
QB uncertainty (Stroud in concussion protocol); money pouring in on Titans.
Simon: Loves Texans if number drops; great matchup if Simmons is out.
Chad: Slight hesitation due to unknowns but willing to bet Texans if key absences are confirmed.

6. Green Bay at NY Giants

[38:27–42:13]

Line: Giants +7.5 (moved from +8.5)
Giants in chaos; coaching turmoil.
Simon: Likes Packers, especially if Giants start Russell Wilson.
Chad: Notes Packers run game matches up well with Giants’ defensive weakness, but recognizes big number risk.

7. Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings

[44:20–45:34]

Line: Vikings -3
Chad: Leans Vikings below a field goal, tries to not be blinded by Bears fandom.
Simon: Leans Bears due to recent form and moneyline value; calls line a “pick ‘em.”
Both agree: line is right, likely a pass.

8. Tampa Bay at Buffalo

[46:33–49:58]

Line: Bills -5.5
Chad: Thinks Bucks overly dinged for last loss, line “should be lower.”
Simon: Agrees, suspicious of Bills respect.
Both lean Bucs but want to confirm injury situations and market info later in week.

9. Chargers at Jaguars

[50:00–51:57]

Line: Jaguars +3
Simon: Jags are the “right side” at +3 but hates betting this.
Chad: Agrees, won’t overthink recent Chargers’ win, will fade them.

10. Seattle at LA Rams

[51:57–54:44]

Line: Rams -2.5 (moved down from -3)
Wiseguy money coming in on Seattle; matchup and pass rush edge.
Chad: “Really like Seattle’s defense.”
Simon: Matchup good for Seahawks, especially pressuring Stafford up the middle.

11. San Francisco at Arizona

[54:44–58:26]

Line: Arizona +2.5 (opened at +3)
Both like the home dog after a blowout loss, especially at +3, but wary at anything lower.

12. Cleveland at Baltimore (Chad’s Choice)

[62:49–66:23]

Line: Browns +8
Chad: Browns “just a different team at home.” Trend supports big divisional dogs.
Simon: Agrees—says Baltimore will be overvalued after a big win, expects close game.

“We actually see this with our eyes. The Browns defense is just a different team at home.”
– Chad (63:27)

13. Kansas City at Denver

[66:23–68:12]

Line: Broncos +3.5
Simon: Likes Denver; expects more public money on Chiefs to drive line up.
Chad: Confirms Simon’s lean.

14. Detroit at Philadelphia (Primetime Spotlight)

[69:00–73:35]

Line: Eagles -2
Chad: Liked Detroit initially due to Eagles’ offensive inconsistencies.
Simon: Swings to Eagles as money and pros pile in on Philly, questions Detroit’s record against strong defenses.

15. Dallas at Las Vegas ("Simon Says")

[73:42–76:07]

Line: Raiders +3.5
“Simon Says” pick is Las Vegas. Simon’s strategy continues to fade Dallas as >3-pt favorites; expects public - heavy money on Cowboys, loves home dog.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On Michael Ray Richardson:
“He is just truly dust in the wind, that guy.”
– Simon (06:00)
On early-week betting evolution:
“A lot can change, information can change...we can’t have back to back losing weeks that have been brutal.”
– Simon (06:57)
On Josh Jacobs/Packers run attack vs. Giants:
“LaFleur might want to give Josh Jacobs the ball many, many, many, many times. And the Giants weakness...was being able to stop the rush.”
– Chad (42:13)
On Chargers-Jags:
“We missed betting on the Chargers last week when we knew we should have...Now we’d normally want to bet them as road favorites... But I don’t care about wins and losses—I care about my wins and losses.”
– Chad (50:53)
On Seattle defensive edge over Rams:
“I really like Seattle’s defense. They’re so freaking good and I think they’re better than the Rams defense, especially from the pass rush.”
– Chad (54:44)

Timestamps for Key Segments

[03:36] Show proper begins, NBA reflections, podcast ethos
[06:57] Week 10 recap, Eagles’ ugly wins, betting pivot discussion
[13:29] Jets-Patriots preview ("massive, massive number")
[15:19] Washington-Miami, international, fading Commanders
[18:38] Bengals-Steelers line movement and handicapping
[22:19] Panthers-Falcons debate
[34:56] Texans-Titans and injury speculation
[38:27] Packers-Giants coaching drama, number talk
[44:20] Bears-Vikings—line properly set, both lean away
[46:33] Bucs-Bills, are Bucs undervalued?
[50:00] Chargers-Jags, masterclass in fading
[51:57] Seahawks-Rams: wiseguy money, defensive matchups
[54:44] 49ers-Cardinals: home dog thoughts
[62:49] Browns-Ravens: Chad’s Choice; home dog theory
[66:23] Chiefs-Broncos: Denver’s divisional value
[69:00] Lions-Eagles: shifting leans, pro-vs-public analysis
[73:42] Cowboys-Raiders: "Simon Says" pick and Dallas fade logic
[76:58] Thursday lookahead, line watch, closing thoughts

Closing Notes

Key Games to Watch for Line Moves/Final Picks:

Houston (-7) if more injury news breaks
Arizona (+3) if available
Denver (+4 or higher)
Las Vegas (+3.5 “Simon Says”)
Cleveland (+8.5) as Chad’s Choice
Thursday night: Jets if line hits +13

Overall Tone: Analytical and dynamic yet approachable, with plenty of self-deprecating humor between Chad and Simon, who balance sharp process and emotional pitfalls of NFL betting.

NFL WEEK 11 Bets: Patriots-Jets, Broncos-Chiefs, Bills-Bucs, Lions-Eagles, Bears-Vikings and more

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Summary

Sharp or Square – NFL Week 11 Bets: Patriots-Jets, Broncos-Chiefs, Bills-Bucs, Lions-Eagles, Bears-Vikings and More

Episode Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Opening Banter & Reflections (03:36–11:21)

Notable Games Breakdown

1. Jets at Patriots – Thursday Night Football

2. Washington at Miami (in Madrid)

3. Cincinnati at Pittsburgh

4. Carolina at Atlanta

5. Houston at Tennessee

6. Green Bay at NY Giants

7. Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings

8. Tampa Bay at Buffalo

9. Chargers at Jaguars

10. Seattle at LA Rams

11. San Francisco at Arizona

12. Cleveland at Baltimore (Chad’s Choice)

13. Kansas City at Denver

14. Detroit at Philadelphia (Primetime Spotlight)

15. Dallas at Las Vegas ("Simon Says")

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Timestamps for Key Segments

Closing Notes

Summary

Sharp or Square – NFL Week 11 Bets: Patriots-Jets, Broncos-Chiefs, Bills-Bucs, Lions-Eagles, Bears-Vikings and More

Episode Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Opening Banter & Reflections (03:36–11:21)

Notable Games Breakdown

1. Jets at Patriots – Thursday Night Football

2. Washington at Miami (in Madrid)

3. Cincinnati at Pittsburgh

4. Carolina at Atlanta

5. Houston at Tennessee

6. Green Bay at NY Giants

7. Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings

8. Tampa Bay at Buffalo

9. Chargers at Jaguars

10. Seattle at LA Rams

11. San Francisco at Arizona

12. Cleveland at Baltimore (Chad’s Choice)

13. Kansas City at Denver

14. Detroit at Philadelphia (Primetime Spotlight)

15. Dallas at Las Vegas ("Simon Says")

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Timestamps for Key Segments

Closing Notes