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Sharp or Square
NFL WEEK 11 Bets: Patriots-Jets, Broncos-Chiefs, Bills-Bucs, Lions-Eagles, Bears-Vikings and more
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- [00:00]
Simon Hunter
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:04]
Matt Rogers
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- [00:48]
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- [01:25]
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- [01:32]
Simon Hunter
NMLS 9104 let's be real life happens.
- [01:38]
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- [03:07]
Simon Hunter
Edelman from Games With Names. Football is back. That means it's tailgate time and this season the only meat I'm going to grill is Dietz and Watson. I'm loving the Black Angus Dietz dogs. They're flavor packed and you can tell they are made with the highest quality ingredients. Sundays just got a whole lot better. Visit dietandwatson.com the right way to learn.
- [03:36]
Chad Millman
More about the deets difference welcome to Sharp or Square presented by Hard Rock Bat. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I'm joined as always by my bff, my companion, my compadre, my co host, Professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello Simon.
- [04:01]
Simon Hunter
Chad, how we doing buddy?
- [04:03]
Chad Millman
I think we're pretty good, you know what I mean? Although I will say this, you're younger than me, but yeah, a little bit in only an age, not in spirit. I think we're complete opposites when it comes to spiritual age and and probably street sense 100%. I believe everything is sunshiny and roses and you know someone's looking to scam us every single turn. Michael Ray Richardson, the former All Star point guard mainly for the Knicks and the nets from the 1980s, passed away from prostate cancer. And as someone who loves the NBA and who was deeply, deeply in love with the NBA in the mid-80s, Michael Ray Richardson was this sort of sad sack story where he was so good, so dominant, led the league in steals three times and then got banned from the league because this was in the mid-80s where Coke was everywhere and it was the scourge of the leagues. It was the betting of today for professional sports in general, but especially the NBA. He got banned from the NBA after four all star seasons with the Knicks and the Nets and one other team, I forgot which one, but the dude was a baller and it was just like wow. Michael Ray Richardson was 70 and I just have a vision of him in his very short, short Nets uniform, like beating up on the Sixers in the playoffs, who I loved at the time. And you know, let's pour one out for Michael Ray.
- [05:54]
Simon Hunter
It's sad. Dorman, a rhyming name like that, I would remember. Don't even recognize or remember the name.
- [06:00]
Chad Millman
That's amazing.
- [06:00]
Simon Hunter
He is just truly dust in the wind, that guy.
- [06:03]
Chad Millman
I'm gonna have to educate you on Michael Ray Richardson. I'm also gonna have to tell you, Simon, despite the controversy and the confusion and our miscommunication with the audience on the Broncos and thank freaking God you listen to all the wise guys and we had a probably the best conversation we've ever had on a Sunday morning. We took out the Niners, we put in the Eagles, the Eagles won. We kind of bet against ourselves because we had dinner on the packers, um, earlier in the week. We went three and two last week in our five favorite picks. One with the Eagles, one with the Ravens, one with the Dolphins, lost with the Cardinals and Bucks for the year 28 and 22 through 10 weeks. As an Eagles fan, thoughts, comments, concerns, criticisms?
- [06:57]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, no, just because early in the week I'm on a position. I'm going to try not to be so hard on holding ourselves to it because a lot can change, information can change. And yeah, thank God I spoke up because again, you're catching me at a weird time. I've been up all night. If we were doing this show, I had been sleeping, I'd probably be a little meaner to you, Chad, a little harder on our picks and what we should and shouldn't do on our Sunday morning show. But you catch me in a very vulnerable soft spot that early in the morning, no sleep. And I just, I'm very agreeable. So thank God we cut off because we can't have these back to back losing weeks that have been brutal. So yeah, I happy I'm pivot on it. Gross game. As an Eagles fan, I love these games. These are the games we're built to win. These are the exact games we do win. We just pull these teams into the mud. The funniest thing is just how people react to these certain games where and I hate the conversation of these NFL players saying, well you never played the game before so you shouldn't have an opinion. But when you hear some people speak, well, the most basic thing is like they're like, oh, both these quarterbacks were awful. Right? Jordan Love. Terrible. Hertz was terrible last night. It's dry air. They can't get grip on the ball. There's a reason all their passes are sailing or having bad throws. Like it's just like, oh, it's an off night. It's like, well look at conditions and then you look at the field. Guys can't get their feet under them, right? It's slippery, it's slick. A lot of those things add up to be a really stupid, low scoring, sloppy game on the other side. Both offenses just had terrible luck, right? Couldn't convert. And you know, we talked a little about Green Bay, the Tucker Craft stuff. That was a real issue, right? And we talked during the week. I said maybe we're overlooking this whole Tucker craft and you saw that, that safety Val for Jordan Love on third down or keep key downs, it's just not there. It wasn't there for them. There was nothing to scheme up where that guy has been such a difference maker for that offense. And yeah, that Eagles team definitely stolen there, right? But I, I said it before the season. It's hard to complain as the Eagles fan if you're in the greatest era of our, you know, football dynasty. Seven years, two Super Bowls and after a Super Bowl I thought there would be a fall off. I think anyone did, right? If you're looking at this Eagles team, a lot of injury luck basically had a really young defensive front and you know, Saquon has not been himself. The Madden cover SI cover is the curse is real. Still number one seed right now and we're at week 11 in the NFC. So pretty, pretty crazy as an Eagles fan that this team. I have so much doubt about the offensive coiner, all of it. I, I can't help but be impressed that this team somehow is the one seed right now where there is still lingering doubts about this offense.
- [09:38]
Chad Millman
Two things. Number one, I never think of you as vulnerable or agreeable on a Sunday morning. So if that is you vulnerable and.
- [09:48]
Simon Hunter
Agreeable, it's as nice as you get, Chad.
- [09:51]
Chad Millman
God help any future relationships that you have because that is just going to be just plain messy. Number one. Number two. Number two, how do you know the.
- [10:05]
Simon Hunter
That was very. Chad has never had a brother. You can tell up on that right there. Chad is very soft people.
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Chad Millman
Number two, don't. Don't get defensive on me. I can criticize you.
- [10:15]
Simon Hunter
I take off kid gloves with you. Hey, we got to take out 49ers, put the Eagles in with kid gloves and that's me being hard on you. You're unreal.
- [10:21]
Chad Millman
Who said you were? I didn't say you were being hard on me. You said that was you being vulnerable. I was like, yeah, yeah.
- [10:27]
Simon Hunter
I was very gentle with you. Hey, let's take this team out. Wasn't mean. Didn't say anything mean. Was very gentle about.
- [10:32]
Chad Millman
Why would it have to be mean?
- [10:34]
Simon Hunter
Regardless, I would have to. Because sometimes you're disagreeable in the. In that you were like, no, I want to be on this side. But luckily you were. You were along for the ride. Thank God.
- [10:43]
Chad Millman
So maybe I was agreeable.
- [10:45]
Simon Hunter
That's true. Maybe.
- [10:47]
Chad Millman
Number two, if you know the SI cover jinx, then you gotta know who Michael Ray Richardson is because they basically were born at the same time. They're legends. Were born at the same time. Listen, Simon, more importantly, it's veterans.
- [10:59]
Simon Hunter
Michael Ray Richardson. This guy's getting tons of airtime today.
- [11:02]
Chad Millman
He deserves it. It's Veterans Day. A sincere thanks to all of our veterans, those who have served, those who do serve. It's a privilege to live in a country where we have people volunteering. So thank you to all the veterans on Veterans Day.
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Simon Hunter
Back to back World War champions. Best military in the world. Thank you for your service, everybody.
- [11:27]
PayPal Sponsor
Look at this crowd on its feet. What a tribute.
- [11:30]
Chad Millman
This is our Tuesday show. We're going to review the entire sleigh. Make sure to check out the Sunday AM show if you want the games. That will be our official five after we've had a chance to review the line moves and the injuries. There have definitely been lots of moves on Sundays this season, as you've seen, and some controversy we had. So make sure you pay attention to that one. Don't forget you can get the shows on Sharper Square, YouTube like this video. Subscribe while you're at it. You can also subscribe to Sharper Square on Apple pods, Spotify, wherever you get your pots. Okay, Thursday Night Football, 8:15Amazon Prime. New York jets at the New England Patriots. Boy, this number's big. 11 and a half for the Patriots. Look, the jets are just a bad team and I think right now coming off that win against the Browns where everyone sort of believed that was the spot where you had to bet the jets as we did whatever worked for them against Cleveland in the perfect spot for their defense to be motivated against a lower level QB will not work against a very good QB and a brilliant coach in Mike Vrabel. Last week, Justin Fields went 6 of 11 for 54 yards. 42 of those yards came on a screen pass to Breece hall that he ran for a touchdown. The strength of this team is their rushing offense and I put strength in quotes. Here's the problem. The PAT's strength on defense against the run. Top five across every advanced metric. First overall in some of the more superficial categories. And. And even though their past defense is suspect. I'm almost done with my solo qui here. Even though their past defense is suspect. I just gave you the Justin Field stats and Garrett Wilson is out for three to four weeks. Poor Christian Gonzalez, he's not gonna have anyone to guard this week. I'll be clear. I'll be clear. This will not be a Final Five pick. I'm gonna be clear.
- [13:34]
Simon Hunter
No.
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Chad Millman
But I'm having a hard time getting to the jets even with a massive, massive number.
- [13:40]
Simon Hunter
Oh, come on. We know the jets are going to win this one outright again, right? Can we bet the jets moneyline? Three weeks in a row, Chad. It's been good to us. We're on a heater right now. The jets money line.
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Chad Millman
Come on.
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Simon Hunter
Oh, no, no, no, no. Come on, Come on. We're being real. This is the definition of a letdown trap spot. But we've been saying this for about a month. This New England team, so that's what I mean. Yeah, this is. They should win this by 30 points. They are better across the board. Everything they do well defensively is a weakness for this jets team. So, yeah, I'll. I'm happy that we're avoiding it. I'll be on the jets team. I know plenty of guys. We're gonna be on New England. Know plenty of pros already taking positions on New England. Like you said, that number was 10. It's been pushed up to 11 and a half now. So I ate it. But it's just New England again. Their fans, they shouldn't care what someone like me thinks. They have possibility to be in the one seed. They're just not that good of a team. They have so many weaknesses that they just keep overcoming and have insane QB play and it's just all hitting right now. So they'll keep getting away from it. They're going to get caught. I mean, they are going to get caught and this is going to go the other way, but I get why you're hesitant. It's. Why would we just try to stand in front of this team? Last week and got demolished. I get why you don't want to do it again, but to me, this is just. Yeah, you got to just bet the jets line. It's bumped up too much. It doesn't matter who's on the field with this team. Like last week, they had no right covering that number. We Said they had two special teams touchdowns. So if you want to fade this jets team, it's a Thursday night. We always say the favorites, especially home teams. It does well long term. It's just skewed that way. But man, I can't get. I can't get over how big of a number this is for Drake May to try to cover. It's a lot of points.
- [15:19]
Chad Millman
It's a massive, massive number. Let's go across the pond. We're going to Madrid. We're going to a city where most people when the game starts are getting home from dinner at 9:30 in the morning. We got Washington at Miami. And as producer Matt Mitchell pointed out, if there's ever been a game in a city where a team has a chance to just completely disappear into the nightlife when their season is lost and their coach may get fired, it is this Miami Dolphins team who are currently two and a half point favorites. Huge swing in the game by the way because the game is at one and a half on Sunday night even after the about while the Lions were getting demolished and it's swung to the. To Miami minus two and a half. So a huge four point swing are the Commodores. The Commodores. Great band. The Commodores. The Commanders. Such a dreadful team against the run that Devon Hn can again run for a thousand yards.
- [16:33]
Simon Hunter
I'm shocked you didn't sing there. Good on you, Chad. Good on you.
- [16:37]
Chad Millman
I would have but I couldn't think of any.
- [16:39]
Simon Hunter
Matt Mitchell's got to jump in. He would know. Gonna be some sweet sound coming down.
- [16:49]
Chad Millman
Night shift dude.
- [16:50]
Simon Hunter
Great. That's why you're the best, Matt. Probably supposed to be like Commanders but it's under three if it's gonna be Mario again with all these injuries that they've had. Washington, their defense is just atrocious like you said. It's. I've been killing us for not fading this commander's team this whole time. Like we just keep. Every week we've been. I've been going against him somehow. We have not taken them in the contest and every week it's just. They're just terrible. Like the coaching staff. I think the head coach said he's taken over defensive duties.
- [17:18]
Chad Millman
Yeah. Dan Quinn is now play college.
- [17:20]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. So you know, will that change much? I just don't know if they have the pieces. They just have had so many injuries when they're already an older team with a lot of weaknesses. So yeah, it's under three. I guess I'll take it. But we always say we don't we don't want to bet to let alone TUA as a favorite on the road. So happy to avoid this game and just like everyone else I'll be there 7am 8am and be like well the game starts an hour and a half. I got to bet some side and I'll probably end up on Miami. So I hate this one but got to take a side.
- [17:48]
Chad Millman
Yeah to me it was anything. If Miami still under three I would take it because I do think in terms of sort of if this is a spirit bowl, the spirit for Miami after beating Buffalo is a little bit higher. They might be able to see some opportunities versus I think the commander is like we got a backup quarterback, we got a defense that can't stop anybody. They're geriatric. Like we got nothing going on here. So I know the professionals, I know they're going to do the best they can. But I think the the scheme favors Miami over Washington.
- [18:24]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, shockingly only had Miami minus one here so I think that's what most guys are like. Shockingly this is probably a lot closer than people realize matchup wise. So we're very public in our pick but we both agree it's about the number, the fact that it's under a field goal.
- [18:39]
Chad Millman
Yeah. Cincinnati at Pittsburgh. Simon this line opened at five and a half. It has moved down to four and a half. I'm going to be totally honest, this was nearly Chad's choice. I bet Cincinnati at plus five and a half. Couple couple things here. Number one Joe Flacco just being healthier and having these receivers against the Steelers diminished secondary, they just, they can't seem to figure it out. They had that one good game where they tried to play zone against the Colts a few weeks ago and you know they moved Jalen Ramsey to safety. But this team like defensively is not in a good spot and I know we now got the Steelers look terrible and so you know, maybe I'm buying into fading the Steelers here but this is really a bet on Joe Flacco and that receiving core just being able to score whenever they want and keep this game closer than the line reflects. The line has moved to four and a half at Hard Rock so I bet at a five and a half it's moved in that direction. It's one of the reasons why I didn't make a chat's choice is because it's got down to four and a half.
- [19:53]
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The Cincinnati Bengals came roaring back.
- [19:58]
Simon Hunter
I think most of us agree. Why is this not three, three and a half? These two teams already played this season. Bengals 133 to 31. I know it was a Thursday game and weird things happened on Thursday, but I don't know about you, but this has given me a ton of the same vibes for this 49ers Rams game. Like the the 49ers on a Thursday beat that Rams team stole that game. It's giving me a lot of vibes here where it feels too easy and I'm a little worried about this bangle side. But I agree with you. If you want to take the number five and a half, that feels like that's a sharp number, it's moving that way. Maybe I'll get there. On the Steelers Blue City Right now I'm with Chad. Like I want to be in the Bengals, but I'm just worried there's something I'm missing here because I just. This line feels way off. I don't get why this is not three, three and a half like you just said. Pittsburgh's defense, you've said all year, they're super suspect. The only time they perform well is when they get these insane turnovers. So not good to be banking a defense with. You need a ton of turnover luck. And then on the flip side, Rogers has just been very questionable, but this is a great match for him, especially if Trey Hendrick is still out a no pressure type of game. I mean, we haven't really beat him up stored but we bullied that guy coming the season. He had one good week one and he has been nothing since for the.
- [21:15]
Chad Millman
Oh my God. He's been. He's been a meme. He's become like every single week someone is finding a video of him doing something where he just doesn't know what he's doing.
- [21:25]
Simon Hunter
He doesn't know what he's doing.
- [21:26]
Chad Millman
And that's a classic, horrible pick. Classic Bengals pick. We said all like, like as I.
- [21:31]
Simon Hunter
Told you, Greg, athlete who gets four sacks in college before the season.
- [21:35]
Chad Millman
An NFL scout said to me, there's nobody in college who's game planning to keep your best player out of the action. If he's not getting plays, it's not because he's a freak athlete who they just can't figure out how to use. It's because he doesn't know how to play football. And that's what we're seeing with Stewart right now. And yeah, obviously I'm making a bet on the Bengals keeping it, being able to score every time they want. I'm not expecting the Bengals defense to stop Aaron Rodgers. I'm expecting him to look like he's 31 years old in this game, but I just think that you're just banking.
- [22:10]
Simon Hunter
On, you're banking on Joe Flacco to keep up like he did the previous matchup again, 33 to 31 the first time they played. Maybe we should be looking more towards the over here, even playing a side, to be honest.
- [22:20]
Chad Millman
That's interesting. Interesting. All right, Carolina visiting Atlanta. Carolina is a three and a half point underdog. Let me ask you this question. Simon Hunter, are you ready? If you're a fan, which one of these teams do you feel better about going into the future? Would you rather right now be a fan of Bryce Young, Dave Canales and the Carolina Panthers or would you rather be a fan of Raheem Morris, Michael Penix and the Atlanta Falcons?
- [22:54]
Simon Hunter
I don't know about that, coach, but Atlanta's foundation I really like. Like you have the receiver, you have the running backs and what we think is potentially the quarterback. Like Pennix has a great arm. He's got a real arm talent. It's. Can you add the other tools? Right. He just, we always, we keep saying it's. I know people want them to be better and you can kind of close your eyes a little bit with this Falcon steamer. They have a couple games where it's like, oh, they could have won that one. They could have stole that game there. What are they, three and six this year? So yeah, it's, yeah, I get if their fan base is down on it, but like we said, it's just hard to be patient as a fan. You got to be patient with Pennix. He's just, he's doing things that he looks like a first year quarterback. He's just inconsistent, makes really dumb throws and he's just locked in on Drake London, which isn't an issue because Drake London's so good. But you're gonna, you're not gonna win games that way. Right? You can't just focus feed on a guy, especially on third downs a defensively you're gonna do that. So for me, the Panthers, I still, I don't know as much as we love the Panthers and Bryce Young, he, he's. He's just not looking like Bryce Young.
- [23:56]
Chad Millman
He's kind of regressed the past couple of weeks.
- [23:58]
Odoo Sponsor
I know.
- [23:59]
Simon Hunter
And it's like painful to watch because it's like you want to say, well, it's the coach. Maybe it's the pass protection. It's like no, it's, it's him. He's not making the right Reads, he's got guys open in certain spots where he's not seen and comes back down to the height stuff. I know it's, it sounds lazy, but it's true. There's a reason most of these teams want six four, six five quarterbacks. Guys like him. He doesn't see that open guy in the flat because he can't see over his left tackle. So I don't know, Chad, if, if I was a fan for this year, I'd be excited if I'm a Panthers fan because you can kind of lie to yourself and think we could be the wild card team and Bryce could keep improving. But yeah, I would be a little worried about him and what he's going to be like going forward. Repentix. I still haven't seen enough to really make a judgment call on that. So I, I, I like Atlanta here too. I don't know about you in this matchup, but I thought this on number is really interesting, the fact that they opened this on minus three and a half. Yeah, yeah. You like, you like Atlanta now.
- [24:54]
Chad Millman
I, I actually wanted to get your opinion. I couldn't, I couldn't land anywhere, it feels like. Because the reason I asked the question is because when I went through it, you know, you and I, when we both eyeball these things, before we even do any work, we sort of instinctively say, who do I like here? And my instinct was to like Carolina at three and a half, getting the hook in the division. I think two teams.
- [25:20]
Simon Hunter
Well, you're with the pros. I know a couple pros who right away, Sunday, they grab that.
- [25:24]
Chad Millman
So.
- [25:24]
Simon Hunter
But it hasn't moved.
- [25:25]
Chad Millman
But it hasn't moved. Which is interesting, right, because like normally these lines we've seen with some other division games that open at three, they've moved to two and a half or they move to three and a half. This one was a three and a half and has just stayed and it's the only one that has stayed of these division games. And so I wanted to like Carolina, but I think that's because we always like Carolina and we want to believe in Bryce Young and we think we've seen something in the way he plays that we've actually won money on and you know, and so, but look, he was terrible against the packers and they won because he made some good plays down the stretch, but really it was Rico Dowdle, right last week against the Saints. He was truly awful. Like he made bad plays, the same things he had done against the packers, only they didn't overcome them against the Saints. And so that was pretty disconcerting. And it looked to me like he was regressing a little bit. And the things that had made him magical when he's stepping up in the pocket and being accurate and hitting guys, that keeps him in the game. He was just throwing picks and he was fumbling and like not playing like a professional quarterback who's on a winning team. And then I look at the Falcons and if you squint not just on the offensive side, like you can see them getting the ball defensively, it just is a couple plays away, like some bad calls away, meaning schematically, that let the Colts stay in it. They should have killed the Colts in that game. It shouldn't have been. It shouldn't have been a game. And so that's when I started to lean to the Falcons.
- [27:00]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And it's a game that I just earmarked right away because of my model had a two and a half. So it's like, okay, I'm already going to like the Panthers. My model likes the Panthers as well. And it probably is going to be something I'm a little blind to right now, which is we're giving a lot of praise to Atlanta here. Let's make no mistake. This is a defense that just gave up, what, 250 yards rushing.
- [27:21]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [27:21]
Simon Hunter
And you could say, well, that was fluky. Well, go watch that Miami game against a chan where they struggled. So you're seeing a little bit of pattern that when they face really dominant running backs, their defense does struggle and their offense seems not to be able to keep up with it. But you know, Atlanta here's on a slide. That's why it's like I really wanted to be on the Panthers. But just situationally, they win that Bills game, everyone thinks, you know, that's a win that's going to send them to another level. That's a young Atlanta team. They've lost four straight. I mean, tough road, but 49ers, Miami, New England Colts, they've dropped them. You would expect this team to get right here at home against the Panthers. But like Chad's saying here, maybe I should trust my model and trust my instincts here. This is a great match of Rico data on this Carolina Panthers team to take the three and a half. But I just, I don't get why this number is what it is. Because to me, if they open it two and a half, three, that made more sense for this matchup than what they're putting here, which is their think they think the Falcons are a much better team than the Panthers. So interesting what the market will do with this one. Like Chad said, if you want the early read with the pros, they're on the Panthers plus three and a half. I'll be patient here, maybe take a position on the Falcons later.
- [28:32]
Chad Millman
Yeah, we're gonna, we're gonna hold off on this. We're gonna see how the market plays it. Let's do a quick word from our friends at Hard Rock bet. Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock bet. It's that time of year when every day feels like a big game day. You've got pro football, college football, NBA, college hoops, hockey. It's all happening. And on Hard Rock Bet, there's always something to bet on. If you haven't tried your first bet on Hard Rock Bet yet, there's still time for you to get $150 in bonus bets. If you win, just place a $5 bet. And if it hits, you get not only your winnings, but $130 $50 in extra bonus bets. And if you're not sure what to place your first bet on, check out the Hard Rock Bet Stats Hub. It's loaded with trends, streaks and stats to help guide your picks. Numbers don't lie, and neither does the data in there. Here's one that stood out to me. Green Bay's Josh Jacobs has scored a touchdown in 13 straight games against NFC opponents. Check out the Stats Hub now. Get the edge and bet with confidence. The Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook app is the only legal sportsbook for whenever you're in Florida. And it's also live in Arizona, Ohio, New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois and Colorado. Coming soon to more states, too. Plus, Hard RockBet offers new promos every single day. So whenever you're listening, just open the app and check out what you've got. Any day of the week, download that Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit payable in bonus bets. Not a cash offer. Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida. Offered by Seminole hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states. Must be 21 and over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play, terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1-833-CLOCK-PLACEWISE in Indiana. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-809 with it gambling problem, call 1-800- gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia.
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- [34:57]
Chad Millman
At Tennessee Tennessee is now a seven point underdog at Hard Rock. Bet this had been seven and a half and it still is in most places. You know what I realized last week when I was putting together my notes in the script yesterday? How nice it was not to have to think about Tennessee last week. Truly, it was amazing. A lot of questions here. Who's playing quarterback for the Texans? We don't know yet. I mean, we'll know, you know the status of CJ Stroud later this week as he goes through the concussion protocol. Jeffrey Simmons I don't think is going to play for the Texans. And when I think about the Titans like the last time we bet against them and we rarely have in the contest was two weeks ago against the Chargers and they burned us with a punt return and a pick six and then they got a, you know, backdoor field goal. So I kind of want to go back to not having to think about the Texans, especially when I don't know who's playing quarterback and a team that is significantly offensive challenged.
- [35:59]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I love the Texas here. I'm, I'm shocked those numbers come down. So I'm interested to talk to pros this week, see why they're taking this Titans team. But just a nightmare match for the Titans as if these teams didn't play early in the year. And I think the score was 26 nothing or 30 nothing. The Houston one against was it really? Yeah. And it's, it's just about the matchups where it's like what can this Titans team offensively do to beat this Texans team matchup and scheme wise And I just can't find one. So do I think they get shut out again? No. C.J. i think will get one, they'll steal one, maybe get a touchdown. And you know, like you said, it's, it's interesting they hung this line when no one knows who the quarterback is going to be where I feel like even if they hung six, five and a half they would have got the same amount of action. They hung at seven and a half. And it's all Titans money, all of it. Like I'm looking right now at a bunch of different books. It's just all Titans money. So I don't know, maybe I'll just be patient and I'll get a better number of the Texans. But if this hits six and a half, I'm gonna have a real time hard time avoiding this game and I, I, maybe I'll convince you come Sunday. If it's six half when the contest but Titans I, I don't know how they score. And the other side, Houston wants to run the ball. Guess who's horrible against the run.
- [37:12]
Chad Millman
The Tennessee Titans. Tennessee Titans. Right?
- [37:14]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, we'll see. Jeffrey Simmons is back. If he's not, I don't think he's back. It's going to be another great match, great spot for this Texas team. So yeah, it's, I'm going to go back and I'll rewatch that Houston game for early year. But I just remember they flat out dominate across the board with something stupid like 9 or 6 nothing at a half and the second half they just ran it down the throat. So Tennessee and Tennessee couldn't do anything offensively. So it just feels a good matchup for this Texans team here coming off such an emotional win and keep those vibes rolling.
- [37:42]
Chad Millman
I don't think Simmons is going to be back. We'll update it on Thursday, but when I was checking the reports yesterday, most of them said they didn't expect him back until week 12. So that changes it. Listen, you know me on Sunday mornings. I am easy. Easy. Like, by the way, that might be a Commodore song too. And that's a great callback and we didn't even plan that.
- [38:06]
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- [38:08]
PayPal Sponsor
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- [38:10]
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- [38:11]
Chad Millman
Matt I don't need a ton of persuading on betting against the Titans. I had a little bit of trepidation just because I saw the number move and I don't know who the quarterback is, but if you feel that strongly about it, I'm going to be all in on it. I might make it my biggest bet of the year.
- [38:27]
Simon Hunter
No, I hope not. I wouldn't do that if it's Davis Mills.
- [38:30]
Chad Millman
All right, well, we're going to put a hold on Houston -7. We'll see who the players are. Green Bay at the New York Giants plus seven and a half since the news of Brian Dabal being fired, since the Green Bay packers put up seven points at home and had a myriad of miscues against the Philadelphia Eagles, this number's come down from eight and a half to seven and a half. And I don't know about you, I don't have a ton of feelings about Brian Dabal. I can't tell if like he was just an arrogant dude or a football dude or a guy who is getting screwed. I think it's mostly Brian Daball getting screwed. Forget about his ability to coach and scheme and get along with, you know, people on the coaching staff and the players don't seem to like him very much. He seems to be a little bit of a manage the star and not manage anybody else kind of coach. But boy, the videos that are coming out about Joe Shine and his reactions to Jackson's dart and how he didn't want to take him and how he got rid of Saquon when Brian Dabel wanted to keep him and how he signed Daniel Jones to 140 million dollar deal. Like he seems a little weaselly in this whole situation.
- [39:51]
Simon Hunter
I mean, you come across all these people in life where you're Just like how does this guy have and maintain these jobs? And he's one of those people.
- [39:57]
Chad Millman
It's like he's managing up in the corporate world. It's called managing up.
- [40:02]
Simon Hunter
Okay, well he's doing it. Definition. We have a couple of people like that in my world as well. But they always get theirs. I don't, hopefully it goes the same in the business world. But I look at this move as I guess a positive for the Giants. I mean this guy is blown. Was it four double digit fourth quarter leads this season with the Giants? Yeah, had to do. If you're the owner, you have to show your fan base you have a pulse and make that move. So yeah, just burn it all down. Get rid of him, get rid of the gm, start over. Like we joke with dart, tons and tons of talents, no brains. Guy is a full on idiot when it comes to protecting himself. I mean someone joked. I think it's true. I think he has three concussions this year. Like.
- [40:44]
Chad Millman
Well, I think he's been checked for three concussions.
- [40:46]
Simon Hunter
He's been checked for four.
- [40:47]
Chad Millman
Checked for multiple concussions.
- [40:49]
Simon Hunter
You're right. Yeah. But it's still like, I mean he just needs to understand he's got so much talent. The league is set up to protect yourself if you're a quarterback, especially as a runner. It's just crazy the stuff he put himself into. So I am all over Green Bay here, especially if this might be Russell Wilson. Oh my God. And we've seen, yeah, Russell Wilson could have a fluke game where it puts it all together. This is, ain't it like this is a defensive front on Green Bay that can get pressure on a quarterback. They have a lot of guys that can win one on ones. And the flip side, LaFleur with this packers team, that was kind of an oddity. I mean we both talked about Green Bay. He doesn't lose back to back. So that was the first time they lost back to back games in like two years. And lafleur, when he does lose back to back, he really gets his team right in that third game. It just we always give him praise for being such a good coach. This seems like a little floor type of game type of spot. So I get with people and their doubts with love. I, I, like I said, I think it was the dry air. Quarterbacks never grip the ball and we saw a ton of drops too from receivers. Just was a really off night altogether where I think this is a good bounce back spot for this backers team. So scary number. I get it. Like we're batting on a Packers team that is not proven to be worthy of this type of number. But I think it's a Russell Wilson line that it could be announced. It's Russell. I'm going to get ahead of it, see if I can get this now. And if it is Russ, see if this number gets up to nine or ten.
- [42:13]
Chad Millman
Yeah, the number's been moving in the opposite direction. The other thing that I think about with this game, Matt LaFleur might want to give Josh Jacobs the ball many, many, many, many times. And the Giants weakness, and we saw it again last week against the Bears, was being able to stop the rush. I mean, they are 31st, 32nd in the league any way you slice it. So it does play to the strength. And we saw last night, even the packers, they continue to try to run. They continue to try to run. That's some dubious play calls, I think. But when Josh Jacobs had the ball, he was somewhat effective and obviously got into the end zone. So I think it's a strength against weakness as well, regardless of Russell Wilson. But it is a big number. Big, big. Chicago Bears. Minnesota Vikings. Commodore did not sing that song. It's. It's at 3 at Hard Rock. It's kind of been bouncing around. It was at three. It went down to two and a half. It went back to three. I'm talking about the Vikings being three point favorites here. I. I'd love your take on this because my lean is Minnesota when it's under a field goal. I have not bet it yet. I'm trying to get out of my head about J.J. mcCarthy and trying to get out of my head about my Bears euphoria. I was talking to my buddy Andy last night, who I grew up with outside Chicago in Highland park and also went to Indiana with me. We don't even know how to react to having a dominant college football team and a football. Professional football team that is bringing us joy. And so I'm trying to see the full picture for the Bears and not just what they're doing in the final two minutes when the whole game is breaking down and Caleb gets to use his athleticism. And I'm also trying to get over J.J. mcCarthy and just say I think the Vikings at two and a half are the right sizer.
- [44:21]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I think we'll just have to avoid it then. I. I think I'm too biased as well. This Bears team, they've just been winning me a lot of money.
- [44:26]
Chad Millman
You are? Yeah.
- [44:28]
Simon Hunter
And I've just been betting them, especially their money line. Every week where it's like they've just been good to me. They just find ways to win. They're a very competitive team and I love the books hung this line that they did right because their first matchup Vikings first week go on the road and they win right by three against this Bears team. So the books are just like we'll let you guys decide, right? We're gonna put it rightward right up right at where you just said. If it's two and a half, how do you not tempted to take Minnesota there? It feels a good number. A plus three. Same for the Bears. It's like these teams are so evenly matched. I just think it's priced right. I don't really see value either side. So if I have to make a pick on this side, I'm gonna go Bears. I just like the way they're playing right now. The vibes of the team. On the flip side, I think we both just don't trust J.J. like we don't. That's why on script he's great. That first series, you know, first 15, we always say no issue there. But after that I just don't think him or kosher in sync where Caleb Williams, he's not as great on the first 15, but he gets better as the game goes along. Especially the run game for this Bears team gets better as the game goes along. So yeah, I just the three I got to take Bears.
- [45:35]
Chad Millman
Not that I want to be nitpicky about the greatest football franchise in NFL history, but he is still wildly inaccurate. And sometimes the reason. Yeah, the reasons why they have to have these dramatic moments is because he's still missing the easy wide open throws. There were at least there were three of them on Sunday late in the game. One of them, Colston Loveland caught it was behind him as he was rushing across the middle. One of them was wide open Roma Dunze and it just was in overthrow. Another one. I can't remember who it was. It might have been Luther Burden. Just didn't connect on it and it wasn't anything but Caleb not making a good throw. That is killing me. Do you get extra credit for making the spectacular but not making the easy. But you win because of the spectacular.
- [46:31]
Simon Hunter
Just win, baby. That's all that matters to me.
- [46:34]
Chad Millman
It's interesting. I'm about process as much as I'm about results. Tampa Bay visiting the Buffalo Bills. The Buffalo Bills are five and a half point favorites. I'm going to say something here. I feel like the. Oh, interesting. You want to say Something.
- [46:51]
Simon Hunter
No, I said say it.
- [46:52]
Chad Millman
Oh, I think the Bucks are getting dinged here more for losing than the Bills are for losing because it feels weird to me. This line is five and a half. Should be lower.
- [47:03]
Simon Hunter
Agree. So that's what scaring me off of it a little bit where it's like just like this NC game. What are we not seeing here, Chad? Are we too in love with this Buck team because they were so good to us early in the year, had so many incredible wins when they were priced right and we're covering for us? Do not get this line at all. This feels like a respect to this Bills team that has not deserved the respect.
- [47:24]
Chad Millman
No.
- [47:25]
Simon Hunter
With this big where that's. That secondary is suspect, I feel like Baker's gonna be able to get his even with these nameless guys. Bizarre number. So, yeah, like, let's be patient on this one. I'll see what I can hear and talk to Phil, as you said it right now, I. I love the Bucks, especially at five and a half. So something I must be missing here. This just feels like such a good number. And you know, we all know the deal. Josh Allen, if he can find it and play in himself. Yeah, they should roll here. This is a good match for him against this Bucks team. But I feel like the Bucs defense and embarrassing as it was last week against the run, don't you think the boys would bounce back here the following week? Like it was such a. A bad loss for them. Where I know the Bills, they can say, well, we just had an embarrassing one ourselves. They don't have the guys. You don't have a Vita vet. You just. I think they lost another rookie to an injury this past week, which is just. It's never ending with this Bills and they just had a horrible injury luck to a defense that couldn't afford to keep losing guys. So I don't love this match for this Bills team, but I'm gonna be patient here, make sure I'm not missing something before. I really put a lot of money into this Buck side.
- [48:26]
Chad Millman
Well, here's what's interesting. You just mentioned the rush game against the. The Bucks for the Patriots. The Bucks gave up, I think 166 yards rushing in that game. 125 of them were on those two broken plays. So are we looking at the Bucs defenses having had a bad game or did the Bucks defense have two bad plays? And.
- [48:50]
Simon Hunter
But Cooks, that same style as Henderson, he can break it.
- [48:54]
Chad Millman
He can break.
- [48:55]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [48:55]
Chad Millman
But you know, to that degree it's Hard to break big runs. It's hard.
- [49:04]
Simon Hunter
For sure, you're dead on about that.
- [49:06]
Chad Millman
They're definitely outliers, so I don't automatically think just because they've got James Cook that he's going to be able to do the same things that Travion Henderson did. I might have to lean into this Bucks defense playing as it normally does. The one thing that I can't get over, Bucky Irving might just be much more important to this offense than we even gave him credit for. And we gave him a lot of credit, but it's not the same team since he's been out with the foot and the shoulder and he's not expected to play this week. Todd Bowles said yesterday he did not think Buck Irving was going to play, and I think that's making a much bigger difference. Rashad White is just a different player. And as magical as Baker is, if he doesn't have Bucky Irving and he's down Mike Evans and he's down Chris Godwin. Even with the offensive line getting better, is there something in the sauce that's missing that we're not seeing?
- [49:58]
Simon Hunter
Agree. That's fair.
- [50:01]
Chad Millman
LA Chargers at the Jacksonville Jaguars look, it's when we fade the Chargers, I don't know, tell you, like, we. We missed betting on the Chargers last week when we knew we should have been betting on the Chargers. And we now would normally want to bet on the Chargers as road favorites because they looked so good last week. And we're like, all right, they figured it out. You make quick passes, you don't let the offensive line become a liability. And then we would bet them and they'll go on the road as favorites and they'll lose and they won't make us happy. So I'm just saying right now, I don't even care who they're playing. We're fading.
- [50:42]
Simon Hunter
The Chargers, well, they, shockingly, they've been winning on the road. They just have not been covering for us. So you're right. They've burned us in this exact spot twice already.
- [50:49]
Chad Millman
No difference to me, son. Simon, I don't care about wins and losses.
- [50:53]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, that's fair.
- [50:54]
Chad Millman
I care about my wins and losses.
- [50:56]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, Hard Rock has already moved it, unfortunately. Like, to me, it's plus three. Go find it if you can on the Jags. But I don't even know how much time I'm spending this one because I honestly hate this game, Chad. I hate that I have to bet on. I hate that I'm gonna have to watch it. I just do not enjoy the Trevor Lawrence Ben experience. I never have, never will. So this is the random time where I'll take that number because I know it's the right one. The model thinks it's the right one. Chad just basically nailed it. Like we get burned by the Chargers here every time. Now we're going the other side. We'll definitely chargers by 30 points in this matchup. But now it just. We talked the matchup wise that you saw Herbert. Even against Pittsburgh they feel like they got away with a bunch of stuff just because there's so many turnovers by Rogers and everything kind of went their way where this feels like a good spot right for this Jaguars team and the fact that game should be a pick Jaguars gave up was a 29 points in a fourth quarter embarrassing loss. This numbers moved a whole nother point to the shot this Chargers team. So plus three I'll take on this Jackson but my God, do I hate it.
- [51:58]
Chad Millman
Yeah. Seattle at Los Angeles Rams. Two of the best teams in the conference right now. Rams are two and a half point favors. This is one of those games where I was referring to earlier like opens a three moves to two and a half and the wise guys are clearly coming on Seattle. Talk to me.
- [52:23]
Simon Hunter
I should have said pause. Yeah, it's, it's a, it's a great matchup. Seahawks, how do we not take them here? How do we not take the Seahawks? I know why people are betting the Rams. The Rams are getting all the early money. This number, like you just said it is two and a half now a couple three still out there you can find if you can. But that's, that's where I want to be. This Jacks. I wanted to be on the three early. This Rams team, I get it, they're an absolute juggernaut right now. They're the hottest team in football. But there are things you look at the matchup wise that this Seahawks team can do that's going to give the Rams real problems offensively. And I'm excited to see how Sean McVeigh is going to counter that because you know, this year we've been talking a lot about the Seahawks team has been a different team on the road. This feels like the true test for them on the road this year. Right. Like I'm, I'm trying to find another game this year. They've faced a team on the road that's at this type of level and I really can't find it. And the Rams we've talked about, they're probably the best offense on Football right now.
- [53:22]
Chad Millman
So yeah.
- [53:24]
Simon Hunter
So huge game, right? This is their first time meeting up in this division. Feels like they're the two teams at the top. They're by far the two teams that as an Eagles fan probably give you the most worry right now in football. So I, as an Eagles fan, can't wait to watch this one. This, I would say this is the game of the week. I know a lot of people think Eagles Detroit is because I believe they're both number one in their divisions right now. But I love this type of game because divisionally and like you just said, it's the type of game that is going to have huge ramifications going forward. So Seattle wise, our big worry here, it's Rebecca and Darnold over Stafford. When Stafford's super high right now and we're talking about confidence with the last possession in a game, it's going to be Stafford. So I'm not shocked to see professionals and early money here coming on the Rams at the two and a half, but I just love this matchup wise Seahawks against this Rams offense. Defensively on the flip side, I don't really think the Rams have guys that can get stops against the Seahawks team that it's the play action pass, it's what's working and they don't have a corner that could take away jsn. So I like the matchup schematically for the Seahawks team. So really, really excited since one maybe a game we don't bet or put our contest because it's just going to be a game where you don't really need to invest a lot into it because there's too many unknown factors and how good of a matchup it is. But at the three, I think you got to take the Seahawks of that number.
- [54:44]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I'm hoping it'll get back there. I don't know that it will, but I like Seattle's defense here. They are so good at rushing the passer and if there's anything we know, especially up the middle, there's anything we know can bother Matthew Stafford. It's pass rush up the middle where he's got to evade going outside and that's just harder for him to do. It's always been hard for him to do even when he was younger and now that he's older, that to me is the biggest challenge. It's always the biggest challenge for older quarterbacks. When someone's coming at you directly in front of you, it's hard to figure out which way you're going to go and you don't have the legs to sort of get there. I really like Seattle's defense. They're so freaking good and I think they're better than the Rams defense to be honest, especially from the past rush. So yeah, we don't have to invest a ton in this but we're going to like Seattle and we're going to be rooting for Seattle on Sunday. San Francisco at Arizona. So we talked about this Sunday night. My first instinct was take the Cardinals a plus three. The line has moved to two and a half. My, my instinct was it's just natural off of a blowout loss. The things that happened in that game against Seattle are unprecedented. You had the same guy forcing a fumble to a teammate and the same teammate picking up the fumble and running it back for a touchdown. And that happened twice in the first 16 minutes of the game.
- [56:11]
Simon Hunter
Holy smokes. Another touchdown touchdown by the same guy.
- [56:18]
Chad Millman
And like after that Simon, after that Cardinals played lights out and they actually outscored the Seahawks the rest of the game. So that's why I like the Cardinals. They just got blown out and it's the right side the week after a blowout.
- [56:37]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I think it's honestly a good match for them against what we keep talking about, a 49ers defense that they can only keep getting away with so much scheme wise. Eventually it does matter. When you don't have players that can put any type of pressure on a quarterback. Right. You need a, some type of pass rush. You don't have any type of COVID corners. The Fred Warner injury, the. As the weeks have gone along here it's, it's grown more and more where you just see in game adjustments just aren't the same without him in the middle commanding it there. So I, we. I gave out the road truck. I can give out. Right. I gave out the Texans, gave out Green Bay. People are gonna hear these next couple games. I just love all these home dogs. And this starts with this game here. So like Chad said, if you can find the plus three, that's where I would prefer to be. Don't hate the two and a half. Just want to always get the best number available. So I don't know if this will be a game come Sunday we'll even talk about really because it's just, it's just not going to be there with us with the number.
- [57:30]
Chad Millman
Right. We're not going to get a three and a half. We're only going to get a two and a half.
- [57:34]
Degree Cool Rush Sponsor
Yeah.
- [57:34]
Simon Hunter
And I just don't love it like I like it. I'm betting it two and a half. But I'm not crazy about it, especially when we're we don't know who the quarterback's gonna be. You don't know if it's gonna be Mac or purdy. Still, the 49ers have been really quiet about it. So I, I look at this as Purdy was close last week. Maybe he comes back this week. But last, like we said last week, that wasn't really a Mac Jones fault. They lost that game. So another game where I was like okay, maybe I'll be on the under here because I just know the Polks are gonna come in really heavy on the under again. It's only Tuesday here. I've seen three different books that give out their betting line info. 95 to 100% of the money is on the over in this matchup. So people love it here. I just look at this as a divisional game. That's always a risky bet, especially it's a high total of 48 and a half. So another sneaky little play I like here is the under in this game.
- [58:26]
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- [62:49]
Chad Millman
The Baltimore Ravens are visiting the Cleveland Browns at Hard Rock Bet. The Cleveland Browns are eight point underdogs. There are plenty of eight and a halfs out there. I'm telling you right now. The Cleveland Browns plus eight are going to be Chad's choice. Presented by Hard Rock Bet.
- [63:14]
Simon Hunter
Are you sure you want to do this? Are you willing to make a choice?
- [63:17]
Chad Millman
A choice? We can't run from who we are.
- [63:21]
Simon Hunter
Sharp dudes can just see it. You know what I mean?
- [63:27]
Chad Millman
I'm obviously hoping and praying that Dylan Gabriel can find a way to get into the end zone at some point in this game, but really we've established a pattern here that has worked well for us. Not because it's a trend, but because we actually see this with our eyes. The Browns defense is just a different team at home. This is going back two seasons now in which they continue to be able to dominate against much better teams at home and keep themselves in a position to win these games. And right now we're getting a Baltimore Ravens team that has won three in a row that now just looked great against a Vikings team that everyone expected might be a little bit closer of a game. And all of a sudden it's a massive, massive number in the division against a still very stingy defense. So give me the stingy defense. You know I like to bet a team when when I feel like they're massive underdogs and I know they can have at least one dominant area of the game between offense, defense and special teams. They've got a unit and I think their defensive unit can be dominant.
- [64:42]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it's the game we both pinged Sunday night and I knew right away it's like, okay, this is a good game. We're probably going to be talking Sunday morning about we just everything about it. We love, love the matchup, love the scheme wise. Like you said, these teams already played Ravens won 41 to 17 much earlier in the season. And as much as you want to take away from that game that this Brown see maybe doesn't match up well for them. Like we said, that's on the road. It's a difference. They're just a different team up at home this season. Believe the most points they've lost by is 4. So we've just seen they play close games at home. It's. It's a really tough team to beat at home. And you know the Browns, as bad as that loss was against that judge team, you know we said it's special teams. Like Gabriel wasn't that terrible. It seems like he's getting more comfortable in this offense as the season is going along here. So like we need one, we need one from. Need him get a one or two touchdowns from at least because Lamar will eventually get his. It's just the way it is. He's one of the best players in all football. So matchup wise, can they take away the run? Can they keep Lamar contained? They got the guys like that's. This front is just so impressive, so dominant. So both love it. Can't avoid it. Like you said, shop around for the eight and a half people. It's such a key number. Go get it. Could see this being like Miami though. Could see this getting to seven, seven and a half by kickoff as a professional when he comes in. But it's gonna be fun to see what the the Brooks do with it because it's going to be huge parlays, huge teasers. Everyone's just fully comfortable all in on this Ravens team, especially after last week where they won so big for us and the public. It was a big win and a cover by them. I think everyone's fully bought in now at this point on this Ravens team.
- [66:24]
Chad Millman
Yeah, totally true. All true. Everything you just said. Cleveland Browns Chad's Choice presented by Hard Rock Bet Kansas City at Denver. You liked this one on Sunday night. You liked Kansas City. You said Kansas City minus three. It has now moved to three and a half.
- [66:40]
Simon Hunter
No way. Did I really?
- [66:42]
Chad Millman
I think you did, didn't you? Oh man, I could have sworn you did. Oh, by the way, I do have one more stat for the Browns that I forgot to mention from killer sports teams playing their third straight road game. Coming off a straight up and against a spread win like the Ravens, the opposing team is 65% against the spread. I'm wrong. You like Denver. I'm looking at this right now. You like Denver.
- [67:08]
Simon Hunter
This was like a Denver line Denver game in a million different ways where I knew the sign would be semi inflated, thought it would be four, four and a half maybe. We get there and we always talk about we just don't trust Mahomes as more than a three point favorite, especially in divisional against these type of games where we just know it's gonna be grueling, ugly, close type of game. So not shockingly, everyone hates Denver now. I mean that was painful to watch last Thursday cost a bunch of people a bunch of money. And you know, the Chiefs still look like one of the best teams in all football right when it's clicking for them offensive. I know the record doesn't reflect it, but we all view them, this is one of the better teams. So I hope this gets higher. I, I was going to make this, Simon says, but I didn't just because I do think we could get a four, four and a half here. I just could see a ton of public love for this Chiefs team and I could see the professionals being patient because this won't dip back to three. There's just no way the books take a stand that way. So I, I do like Denver here, but I'm not gonna make it better yet. I do think we can get some fours here popping up pretty soon.
- [68:13]
Chad Millman
All right, to be clear, you did say Denver on Sunday night. I misremembered. It was late, it was late, it was late. At the end of those days, I'm a mess, man. I'm tired, I'm a little dehydrated, My head starts to hurt a little bit. You know, you're not yourself on Sunday mornings. Sunday night I'm a morning guy, you're an evening guy. Ying and yang.
- [68:39]
Simon Hunter
I think it's the fact that I've been up 24 hours straight by that point. I'm already kind of loopy. I'm totally losing my mind by then.
- [68:45]
Chad Millman
Could be. Well, by that point I've been up 13 hours straight and so I'm exhausted.
- [68:51]
Simon Hunter
There you go.
- [68:52]
Chad Millman
All right, Primetime spotlight. We got some island games, standalone games. Let's talk about it. Detroit plus two at Philadelphia.
- [69:00]
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- [69:02]
Simon Hunter
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- [69:09]
Chad Millman
Before he learns to speak. I think on Sunday night we both talked about liking Detroit, but we wanted to wait to see what happened in the Monday night game because we thought the line would move. It was at one and a half. It's two at Hard Rock. It's two and a half in a lot of other places. I still like Detroit here. I feel like it's a pretty good spot for them. And I don't know that what we saw offensively from the Eagles last night was an anomaly. It seems to be how they play the game without a lot of rhythm, with some weird play calling and they win. They find ways to win. But I think Detroit's offense, with Dan Campbell calling the plays, might have a better chance to find their rhythm as well.
- [69:57]
Simon Hunter
Huge, huge mistake. Now I'm not gonna give you too hard of a time about it. I, I did like the lines. I thought it would probably be a good spot, but already took some shit about my love for the Lions and how I'm stepping in it, walking in really a little bit. And it is fair. Like, they faced one good defense this year, this Lions team, and they put up 17 points against the Chiefs. This is not a good matchup for golf. Like you just saw that front. Now Phillips on this Eagles team, they got some guys now up front. They can get pressure on one on one matchups against other teams quarterbacks. So I'll be patient here. Like, I, I hate when I do get flipped on these type of games and the numbers gone against me. Like, if this was one and a half, obviously I'd still feel much better about the Eagles team. Like you said. Now it's up to two, two and a half. I don't know how much I'm gonna really dig in here, but it seems like the Eagles might be the wrong side. This Lions team, as good as they are, they do have some flaws defensively. They are banged up and I don't know if Campbell calling your offenses to where you want to be. I really don't like that. When I heard that, I was like, ah, man, Campbell's now their offensive coordinator. Like, Chad's gonna get his wish. A lot of runs up the middle on 4th and 1, I guarantee you that. Even if he gets stopped three times in a row. So I don't know. Like, this is a team that, like we said, they got embarrassed with that Chiefs game. Then they, we loved them in the spot. They, they beat up on the Bucks at home, had to buy a week, lost to JJ McCarthy and then just beat up on a Washington team. So I just have a lot of questions, as much as we have questions about this Eagles team. It's a good number for them. They're at home under a field goal, catching a team that might be overvalued and overrated publicly just because they already forgot about that bad Vikings loss and they just come off A dominant win. So I just have some little questions here about why the pros hit me up so hard about being on the Eagles. And they were right once again last night about the Eagles team. That was a game they covered from the minute the game kicked off to the very end, they covered the entire way through. So, yeah, we might be understanding this Eagles team that just. It doesn't look pretty, Chad, but they keep winning. I think they're 6 and 1 now in one score games this season. It's under a field goal. So this might be an Eagles line.
- [72:20]
Chad Millman
All right, look, I can be agreeable. And look, you, I, I thought about this last night. There was one of the plays where Jalen Hurts was pushed out of the pocket, scrambling right early in the game to convert a third down. I forgot who he hit. And Shipley, I think Will Shipley.
- [72:39]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [72:40]
Chad Millman
And he was so relaxed and smooth and unbothered. And that's how he's always playing as quarterback of the Eagles. Like, it just all seems as though he's seen it. He gets it. He understands how to win, which he has done his entire career going back to college. So I get it. Like, it's a hard time.
- [73:06]
Simon Hunter
I thought it took him a quarter to shake that fumble though. Interestingly enough. Like you're saying he seemed frustrated. He did seem after that he was like forcing throws that usually doesn't force. And it's like they need to get in his ear, tell him to kind of bring it back. So, yeah, like, I will not be shocked if this is one of the most public dogs of the week. Detroit. The Eagles just look so, so bad on a short week now facing the Detroit team that looks so good in the eyes of the public. So yeah, it's. It's an interesting line that the books opened here with.
- [73:35]
Matt Rogers
Get ready.
- [73:38]
Simon Hunter
Are you ready for.
- [73:43]
Chad Millman
We still owe assignment says and there's only one game left. It's Dallas at Las Vegas.
- [73:46]
Simon Hunter
Oh, my God.
- [73:47]
Chad Millman
Las Vegas is a 3 1/2 point dog, by the way. This line on Sunday, Monday was Dallas minus one and a half. So it's gone up two points at this point. Simon, what say you?
- [74:01]
Simon Hunter
Chad knows me so well. Simon says, give me Las Vegas Raiders plus three and a half. I want to play a game. Simon says, I feel like all year I'm gonna keep telling people you fade Dallas when they're more than a three point favorite and it's hit every game. I'm trying to think what game we lost this year. On it. There was some stupid game they won, but yeah, like just this matchup, it feels the same with the Panthers. Panthers were three and a half. They covered it. Cardinals are three and a half against. This Dallas team covered one hour. Right. It's just an offense that, you know, the Broncos were a really good defense and they did what we thought they would do. Right. Like again, I can't believe we didn't cover that. If you would told me the Raiders would score seven points, have a block, field goal, blocked punt, you know, nine penalties, you would think you would have covered that one. But this Raiders team still playing hard. I mean, as bad as I thought they would look, it's a team that has been playing hard for their coach. And when you look at this matchup, I think they're underrating this. You know, getting rid of Myers and the fact that this offense, you know, people look, are just so downplaying them because of that Broncos game where, you know, getting Brock Bowers back, it's a huge upgrade to this team. I know they didn't use them the previous week, but against Dallas, who cannot cover the middle of the field, this is the dream matchup for him. So you know Dak, this is a get ready game for him. He could put up a ton of points. But I just see this, this team keeping up with them and this being a closer game than people realize. So as I sit here right now, there's a couple threes out there. I'm seeing a lot of books move to three and a half. So get it while you can. Hard Rock is one of the first books to get to three and a half. I, I do think I'll go back down as professionals coming on this Raiders team, but we'll see. Like we always say, the Monday night games, the public has a ton of teasers tumble. Moneyline parlay is all tied to that money like that Monday game. So right now we're looking at a Dallas team on the road, probably going to be getting by kickoff 80% of the money, 80% of the tickets. Like that's. I just think the public's going to hammer them this matchup. So a dog at home getting that least amount of money like that. I just love this matchup for this Raiders team.
- [76:08]
Chad Millman
All right, look, we got a lot of games to talk about on Thursday. We're going to have to talk about the Browns, we're probably going to have to talk about Cincinnati, we're going to talk about Houston because we want to know who's playing quarterback. We'll be curious about Green Bay to see how that number moves and the Houston there is.
- [76:28]
Simon Hunter
There is a six and a half out there now. People are going to hear this. Six and a half popped up.
- [76:33]
Chad Millman
Now we got to go bet six and a half on Houston, the Bucks. We're very curious to see how the line moves on the Bears and the Vikings. The Jags, we're not going to talk about it. Seattle, we're interested in Arizona. If we can get it to three, we're interested in Denver plus three and a half. We want more on the Philly Detroit game in Las Vegas plus three and a half. As Simon says, man, it is going to be busy.
- [76:59]
Simon Hunter
Another line, one more line shift before we go. Jets up to 12 and a half now. So.
- [77:04]
Chad Millman
Oh my God.
- [77:05]
Simon Hunter
Probably gonna have to. Probably gonna get the 13th chair. We're not gonna have a choice but to bet it come Thursday night. Once it gets a 13.
- [77:10]
Chad Millman
Poor Jets. The poor Jets. All right. This has been sharper Square, part of the volume podcast network. We'll be back on Thursday with the games we're zeroing in on plus our head to head battle. Our brass balls bet of the week. So much more. Watch or listen on YouTube at sharp or square like the video, subscribe to the channel. Also download from Spotify, Apple pods. Wherever you get your pods rate, review, subscribe. Feedback is a gift. Leave us five stars until next time. Love you.
- [77:42]
Simon Hunter
Hey.
- [77:44]
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Simon Hunter
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Chad Millman
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- [78:56]
Simon Hunter
This episode is brought to you by pbs. Home of Ken Burns. His newest film, the American Revolution, reveals untold stories of people, some familiar, many forgotten, who risked everything to change the course of history. It's the story of a war that was bloody, complex and profoundly consequential. Ken Burns and his co directors Sarah Botstein and David Schmidt shine a light on how this historic fight for independence lit the spark for freedom that still burns today. The American Revolution premieres Sunday, November 16th at 8, 7 Central on PBS and the PBS app.
- [79:30]
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- [80:06]
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Simon Hunter
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Simon Hunter
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Simon Hunter
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