Sharp or Square – NFL Week 11 Reactions
Host: Chad Millman
Co-Host: Simon Hunter
Date: November 17, 2025
Episode Overview
In this episode of Sharp or Square, Chad and Simon dissect the wild Week 11 NFL slate, offering reactions to key games from both a fan and betting perspective. They break down their contest performances, early betting leans for Week 12, and dig into everything from head-scratching coaching decisions, miracle covers, and the agony of backdoor losses. Throughout, they keep a sharp eye toward what was sharp (smart) or square (public) in the world of NFL betting, with honesty, humor, and plenty of football wisdom.
Table of Contents
- Contest Recap and Key Results
- Game-by-Game Breakdown & Insights
- Bengals at Steelers
- Panthers at Falcons
- Seahawks at Rams
- Browns vs. Ravens
- Texans vs. Titans
- Bucs at Bills
- Chiefs at Broncos
- Bears at Vikings
- Cardinals at 49ers (Brief Touch)
- Sharp, Square, and Brass Balls Picks
- Shame & Hero of the Week
- Early Week 12 Leans and Market Reads
- Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
Contest Recap and Key Results
- Day’s Record: 2–2 in the contest
- Winners: Browns +8.5, Panthers +3.5
- Losers: Rams –3, Bengals +5.5
- Pending: Eagles –2.5 for Sunday Night Football.
- Notes: Chad and Simon openly discuss the day’s rollercoaster emotions—the sting of backdoor covers, the joy of heroic performances, and the ever-present regret of bets left off the board.
Game-by-Game Breakdown & Insights
Bengals at Steelers
Bengals +5.5 (Loss)
[04:07–08:07]
- Chad: Calls it an "ugly, annoying, disgusting" loss. “We should have won this game a thousand different ways today.” (04:20)
- Game started promising (13 points in 10 minutes) but unraveled: “That Flacco pick six. That’s what burned us in the end.” — Simon (05:36)
- Bengals self-destructed with penalties and turnovers.
- Injuries & subs: Jalen Warren/Daniels left, Aaron Rodgers didn’t play 2nd half—still, Bengals couldn’t capitalize.
- “If the line’s too good to be true, just stay away.” — Simon (07:15)
Panthers at Falcons
Panthers +3.5 (Win)
[08:07–13:47]
- Chad: Reluctance turned to relief: “I needed Bryce Young to have a record setting day for himself.”
- Bryce Young: 440+ yards, 3 TDs, heroic 2nd-half and OT play.
- “Carolina was a much better team… it’s a big deal when a team goes on the road, gives up 21 [1st-half] points, and holds that team to 6 in the second half.” — Simon (09:08)
- Coach Canales repeatedly rolled the dice on fourth down—sometimes recklessly.
- “Bryce Young, you are our quarterback. And Dave Canales, you are coach.” — Chad (13:26)
- Falcons: 5th straight loss, future of Raheem Morris in doubt.
Seahawks at Rams
Rams –3 (Loss, Backdoor)
[14:24–16:58]
- “Our brass balls bet of the week. That one hurt. My wife came home… she looked at me and goes ‘this isn’t good.’” — Chad (15:15)
- Rams defense got picks, but Stafford never found rhythm, McVay too conservative.
- “We live and die by the backdoor all the time and this time we died by it.” — Simon (16:38)
Browns vs. Ravens
Browns +8.5 (Win)
[16:58–20:51]
- Myles Garrett: “Had four sacks by early in the third quarter… he’s the only reason we covered that game today.” — Chad (16:58)
- Defense heroic, offense dormant—backup QB Shador Sanders struggled.
- “That number was never in doubt,” said Simon about the Browns’ ATS position (19:37)
- Caution: “We’re going to start being a little wiser. The secret’s out… books will catch up.” — Simon
Texans vs. Titans
Quick Recap
[26:50–29:37]
- Texans dominated everywhere but the scoreboard, then almost gave it away on a last-minute Titans drive.
- “Texans have the best defense in the NFL. They were dominating… They couldn’t get a stop… Multiple penalties… it just made me sad.” — Chad
Bucs at Bills
Bills –6.5 (Win, but avoided betting)
[31:01–35:34]
- “This was Josh Allen’s best game we’ve ever seen him play.” — Simon
- “Josh Allen: throw for three touchdowns and rush for three touchdowns. It’s an all-time game.” — Simon (32:08)
- Back-and-forth game with nine lead changes; Bills finally pull away to cover.
- Chad: “If you had the Bucs you would have been so psyched… And then the Bills scored again and again to cover.” (33:49)
Chiefs at Broncos
Broncos +4.5 (Win)
[37:01–41:42]
- Simon: “Just an all-time game… We’ve been waiting for Mahomes to trip up at least. Football should not be that way.”
- Bonix (Bo Nix) stepped up after down games; Denver’s defense stifled Mahomes.
- “Broncos, Patriots, and Colts are steaming towards division titles… I don’t think anyone had that parlay.” — Chad (39:39)
Bears at Vikings
Bears win; frustrating for Vikes backers
[41:42–45:25]
- “I don’t know if J.J. McCarthy is a bettable quarterback… even Justin Jefferson seems like he’s just about to lose it right now.” — Chad (41:42)
- Caleb Williams’ late-game magic for Bears: “I’ve always loved that kid.” — Chad
- Conversation on young QBs—both show potential but are “nowhere near” their teams’ needs for playoffs — Simon (42:53)
Cardinals at 49ers
[35:41–37:01]
- Brief touch: Arizona's special teams errors and lost opportunities.
- Jacoby Brissette sets “an NFL record 47 completions” (36:53)—but generally less attention on this matchup.
Sharp, Square, and Brass Balls Picks
-
Simon Says: Las Vegas +3.5
-
Chad’s Choice: Cleveland +8.5 (WIN)
-
Brass Balls: Rams –3 (LOSS)
-
Rock and Hard Play: Eagles –2.5 (pending)
-
Sharp vs Square:
- Chad: Houston (Loss, bitter!)
- Simon: Carolina +3.5 (WIN)
-
Favorites Parlay: 4–0 so far, with Philly remaining
-
Underdog Parlay: Only Carolina hit
Shame & Hero of the Week
Shame, Shame, Shame
[49:33–53:59]
Simon: David Canales (Panthers HC)
- “Shame on you, David. He coached that game in so many weird ways… There is no math that tells you that’s a good decision to go for it on your own 30… and with a defense playing that well!” (49:47)
Chad: Houston Texans defense
- “How can it not be the Houston Texans defense—Cam Ward on the 5-yard line, 3.5 mins left, and you let the guy go 95 yards… You are supposed to be the best defense in the league.” (52:22)
Hero of the Week
[54:01–56:34]
Simon: Bryce Young
- “We were deader than dead. He had to throw for almost 450 yards… We’ve been waiting for him to have these type of games and he did in a big way today.” (54:07)
Chad: Myles Garrett
- “He’s the only reason we covered that game today. Every time the Ravens had an opportunity, Myles Garrett was in Lamar Jackson’s grill.” (54:45)
Early Week 12 Leans and Market Reads
[57:58–63:00]
- 49ers –7 vs. Panthers (MNF): Both see value on the Panthers again.
- “Aren’t we hammering this Panthers number? Insane number. 47 completions allowed this week. Still a bad defense.” — Simon
- Rams –6.5 vs. Bucs: “Doesn’t this feel big for the Bucs?” — Chad
- “That is a lot of points to get Baker after two bad losses… Feels like a spot to back Baker.” — Simon
- Lions (big favorites) vs. Giants: “Maybe the Lions are going to lose tonight… get right at home.” — Chad
- Seahawks –12.5 at Titans: “Seattle off a loss dominates bad teams—this is a horrible spot for Tennessee.” — Simon
- Colts +3.5 at Chiefs: Simon surprised at line; thinks it’s value.
- Bears –3 vs. Steelers: Early move; both eyeing the situation around Mason Rudolph at QB for PIT.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- “[Backdoor losses] make you kind of hate sports.” — Simon (15:35)
- “If the line’s too good to be true, just stay away.” — Simon (07:15)
- “Every big game lived up to the hype today in the NFL.” — Simon (32:17)
- “Football’s different every single time.” — Chad (39:53)
- “Jim Brown, Ozzie Newsome, Bernie Kosar, Myles Garrett—that’s probably the top four for the Browns.” — Chad (56:34)
Tone and Chemistry
- Relaxed, self-deprecating, and honest: Both hosts admit regrets, lean into each other's frustrations, and celebrate big wins with some sardonic wit.
- Knowledgeable but football-fan passionate: Betting angles are well-explained, but so are irrational fan emotions.
- Memorable exchanges: Simon’s “If the line’s too good to be true, just stay away” encapsulates the betting wisdom woven through the episode. Chad’s laments about bad beats are relatable to any gambler.
Episode Summary
Chad and Simon deliver a jam-packed NFL Week 11 betting review, thoughtfully examining the agony and ecstasy of their contest results and the league’s wild landscape. With live reactions, sharp insights, and a heavy dose of hindsight, they guide listeners through every big play, upset, and backdoor cover. They keep things fun with their “Shame” and “Hero” segments, and close by giving listeners an early betting edge for next week. A must-listen for bettors and NFL fans seeking insight and entertainment.
For those who missed it:
You’ll leave this episode feeling both wiser and entertained, fully up-to-speed on the NFL week that was—and ready for the week ahead.