Sharp or Square – NFL Week 12 Bets: Bills-Texans, Giants-Lions, Bucs-Rams, Colts-Chiefs, Eagles-Cowboys, Jets-Ravens, and More

Podcast: Sharp or Square
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Date: November 18, 2025
Episode Focus: Breaking down the full NFL Week 12 betting slate, identifying “sharp” (professional) vs. “square” (public) sides, and providing data-driven insights on spreads, intriguing angles, and value spots.

Brief Overview

Chad Millman (Action Network) and pro bettor Simon Hunter return to run through the entire NFL Week 12 board. They provide in-depth breakdowns on the major matchups, highlighting sharp-vs-square betting opportunities, uncovering system trends, and mixing in their own betting strategies. The duo also brings a blend of football nerdery, betting storytelling, and back-and-forth banter.

"This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention."
— Chad Millman [03:13]

Week 12 Betting Highlights and Analysis

1. Thursday Night Football: Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans

• Line: Bills -6 (some -5.5 available at open)
• Discussion:
  • Question marks at Texans QB (CJ Stroud in concussion protocol); Davis Mills likely to start.
  • Simon highlights Houston’s poor history in primetime: “18-31 straight up, 15-32 ATS in night games” [06:12].
  • Public and professionals aligned on the Bills early. Simon leans Bills -5.5 if available; okay with -6, despite it being a popular play.
  • Chad details Davis Mills' late-game heroics, but underscores inconsistency.
• Key Quote:

  “Maybe Davis Mills is just really good in the fourth quarter at the only time that matters. And the rest of the game he's just torture to watch.”
  — Chad Millman [08:14]

• Sharp/Square verdict: Sharp on Bills – only if CJ doesn’t play and line stays sub-6.

2. Seattle Seahawks @ Tennessee Titans

• Line: Seahawks -13
• Analysis:
  • Both hosts already bet Seattle at -12.5; still like under -14.
  • Simon: Laying this many on the road is rare, but Titans have little left after max effort in division game.
  • Favorites of -11+ since 2020: just 3-7 ATS, but Seattle covers big vs. bad teams ([10:28]-[12:17]).
  • Darnold in “get right” spot against soft Titans secondary.
• Quote:

  “Seattle are just a covering machine as a road favorite—they just get up on McDonald's [bad teams]. So we gotta bet it...”
  — Simon Hunter [12:55]

• Verdict: Sharp side is Seahawks, number justified even if it feels high.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers @ Chicago Bears

• Line: Bears -3
• Analysis:
  • Simon notes Mike Tomlin's struggles lately as a road dog (0-4 ATS last four), but Bears have “horseshoe up their ass.”
  • Regression likely after three squeaked-out wins; teams like the Bears in this “close-win” streak go just 12-23 ATS next game ([15:27]-[17:04]).
  • Chad and Simon grudgingly take +3 with Pittsburgh—history says this is the get-off spot for Bears' luck.
• Notable Stat: "Bears: One of the worst 7-3 teams statistically in 25 years." [17:55]
• Verdict: Sharp to Steelers +3, even if it’s ugly to back Mason Rudolph.

4. New York Giants @ Detroit Lions

• Line: Lions -10.5 (moved from -11.5)
• Simon Says (Best Bet): Lions -10.5
  • Supporting trends: Lions 8-2 ATS after 0-for on 4th downs, 22-8 ATS off a loss under Goff/Campbell, 13 straight covers after losing, 8-0 ATS when favored -4+ off loss ([20:43]-[23:23]).
  • Jared Goff especially elite indoors off a loss.
  • Both hosts: This is a textbook “bounce back and blow out” spot.
• Quote:

  “They haven't not covered after a loss since November 1st, 2022... They’re just a machine after these types of losses.”
  — Simon Hunter [23:08]

• Verdict: Very sharp on Lions laying double digits here.

5. New York Jets @ Baltimore Ravens

• Line: Ravens -13.5
• Analysis:
  • Simon: Everything says Jets are terrible and Ravens always handle them, but “enough favorites already” on the card.
  • Ravens 6-0 straight up, 5-1 ATS vs Jets in Baltimore in last 25 years ([26:29]).
  • Lean Ravens or nothing; not a must-play.
• Verdict: Sharp side still Ravens, but not a top priority bet.

6. New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals

• Line: Bengals -7.5
• Analysis:
  • Simon: “Easy spot, long-term winner Bengals...but only if Joe Flacco is healthy.” [36:51]
  • Patriots on 8-game win streak—historically, such teams go just 14-34 ATS next time out since 2010 ([37:57]).
  • Bengals defensively tough to trust, but regression looms for the Patriots.
• Quote:

  “It is so hard to string together wins consistently...eventually it’s going to catch up.”
  — Simon Hunter [38:13]

• Verdict: Sharp play on Bengals +7.5 as a bet against the Patriots’ run continuing.

7. Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs

• Line: Chiefs -3
• Key Insight:
  • Chad hypes Colts DC Lou Anarumo as “Mahomes kryptonite” going back to his Bengals days ([40:39]-[41:52]).
  • Simon: Mahomes just 1-2 straight up/ATS vs Colts; Colts off a bye, with coach/defensive scheme that gives KC issues.
  • Chiefs 0-5 in one-score games this season, a sign of real struggles.
• Quote:

  “There’s something a little different, and it’s starting to show up—the difference is: they’re 0-5 in one-score games.”
  — Simon Hunter [43:12]

• Verdict: Sharp money on Colts +3.5; preferably wait for hook [44:20].

8. Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers

• Line: Packers -6.5
• Analysis:
  • Both hosts pass—don't trust either rookie QB or either defense.
  • Pros are betting Vikings if the number touches 7.
• Verdict: If value, it's Vikings +7 (sharp); otherwise, avoid.

9. Cleveland Browns @ Las Vegas Raiders

• Line: Raiders -3 (moving to -3.5 at many books)
• Analysis:
  • Browns starting Sanders at QB—disastrous history for Cleveland QBs making first starts (0-17 last 17).
  • Browns defense “doesn’t travel”; terrible road stats ([49:25]-[50:25]).
  • Simon hates trusting Geno as favorite, but likes Raiders moneyline.
• Quote:

  “Last time a Browns quarterback won his first start was Eric Zier in 1995.”
  — Simon [50:08]

• Verdict: Sharp at -3; at -3.5 cautious—lean toward the moneyline.

10. Arizona Cardinals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

• Line: Jaguars -2.5 (moving towards -3)
• Chad’s Choice: Cardinals +2.5 (prefer +3)
• Supporting trends: Teams who blow someone out after a comeback win (as Jags did) go 0-7 ATS next game since 2016.
• Cardinals just got smoked two weeks in a row—should bounce back at home.
• Quote:

  “I’m just not going to be a buyer of the Jags. I’d much rather invest in the Cardinals...”
  — Chad Millman [52:02]

• Consensus: Sharp play is on the home dog, Arizona.

11. Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints

• Line: Saints -2
• Summary:
  • Ugly matchup. Kirk Cousins extremely poor vs. Saints historically: 0-4 ATS in last 4, 0-3 ATS in Superdome.
  • Both lean pass, though Simon maybe on Saints for contest pools.

12. Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys

• Line: Eagles -3 (opened -4.5)
• Analysis:
  • Number drop signals sharp money on Dallas. Eagles’ offense “so bad...dysfunctional” with Lane Johnson out ([58:58]-[61:40]).
  • Simon: Has bet Dallas at plus money but says at -3, Eagles are tempting.
  • Chad: Wants to wait; sees value on Eagles if under a field goal.
  • Key angles: Dallas off short week, Eagles wearing their 5-0 “kelly greens.”
• Quote:

  “I cannot believe the pros are loading up on the Cowboys. Really interesting here.”
  — Simon Hunter [61:40]

• Verdict: Monitor for further movement. Lean Eagles if -3 or better; sharp money currently Dallas.

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Los Angeles Rams (Sunday Night)

• Line: Rams -6.5
• Analysis:
  • McVay excels after divisional games; Baker Mayfield very poor as primetime dog (1-8 SU, 2-11 SU primetime overall).
  • Rams defense healthier than Bills', who gave Bucs trouble last week ([69:16]-[71:07]).
• Quote:

  “Baker’s had 13 games at primetime…2-11 straight up, 4-9 ATS. So whatever it is, he struggles in the spot.”
  — Simon Hunter [70:59]

• Verdict: Sharp side is Rams, despite big line and faded public sentiment.

14. Carolina Panthers @ San Francisco 49ers (Monday Night)

• Line: 49ers -7
• Analysis:
  • Panthers coming off big offensive game; heavy regression spot (just 2-13 SU and ATS after scoring 30+ since 2018).
  • Niners 8-15 ATS at home since 2023; Shanahan 3-9 ATS last 12 as big favorite after a win.
  • Both lean Panthers +7, especially with Niners secondary struggling.
• Quote:

  “Since Christmas...1-15 ATS after a straight up win and a cover on the road. I don’t know Chad, feels like it’s too easy.”
  — Simon Hunter [74:14]

• Verdict: Sharp side is Panthers +7. Fade Niners as home chalk off big win.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Chad, on game regression:

  “How do you time the freaking market? ... That’s what makes it so difficult, because at some point you either gotta get off the train and try to time that perfectly.” [17:04]

• Simon, on Lions trends:

  “They haven’t not covered after a loss since November 1st, 2022... They’re just a machine after these types of losses.” [23:08]

• Simon, on Browns’ QB futility:

  “The last time a Browns quarterback has started and won his first start for the Browns was 1995. Do you remember the name of the quarterback?”
  — Simon [50:06]

• Chad, on public perception:

  “That’s a telltale sign, right? The public loves offense.” [62:56]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Bills-Texans Analysis: [04:14] – [09:28]
• Seahawks-Titans: [09:28] – [12:55]
• Steelers-Bears: [13:40] – [19:15]
• Giants-Lions: [19:15] – [25:34]
• Jets-Ravens: [25:59] – [27:45]
• Patriots-Bengals: [36:51] – [39:23]
• Colts-Chiefs: [40:06] – [45:03]
• Vikings-Packers: [45:03] – [47:21]
• Browns-Raiders: [47:21] – [51:35]
• Cardinals-Jaguars: [51:35] – [55:43]
• Eagles-Cowboys: [57:59] – [63:04]
• Bucs-Rams (SNF): [68:11] – [71:07]
• Panthers-49ers (MNF): [71:31] – [75:23]

Overall Podcast Tone & Takeaways

• Analytical, contrarian-minded with a sense of humor and humility (“I just can't get over it. Gino minus three and a half favorite...” — Simon).
• Stresses the necessity of betting against public narrative, trusting ugly dogs and fading recency bias.
• Explicit about their own anxieties, bad beats, and betting lessons (“Trying not to let the number scare me off. It's an insane number. But I think Seattle's worthy of it...” — Simon [12:55]).
• Paired betting wisdom with deep situational angles and rock-solid trend stats.

Summary Table: "Sharp or Square" Bets for NFL Week 12

| Game | Lean/Best Bet | Rationale | Timestamps | |------------------------------|--------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------| | Bills @ Texans | Bills -5.5/-6 | Texans QB uncertainty; poor primetime history | 04:14-09:28 | | Seahawks @ Titans | Seahawks -13 | Titans spent; Seattle covers big vs. bad teams | 09:28-12:55 | | Steelers @ Bears | Steelers +3 | Bears on improbable close-win streak due to regress; Tomlin as dog spot | 13:40-19:15 | | Giants @ Lions | Lions -10.5* | Elite bounce-back spot, strong historic trends | 19:15-25:34 | | Jets @ Ravens | Ravens -13.5 | Historic domination; Jets offense inept, but not must-play | 25:59-27:45 | | Patriots @ Bengals | Bengals -7.5 | Pats' win streak regression; situational fade | 36:51-39:23 | | Colts @ Chiefs | Colts +3.5 | Anarumo schematic edge, Mahomes struggles, off bye, inflated KC line | 40:06-45:03 | | Vikings @ Packers | Pass/Vikings +7 | No trust in QB play, pros on Vikings at 7 | 45:03-47:21 | | Browns @ Raiders | Raiders -3 | Browns backup QB futility, defense regresses road | 47:21-51:35 | | Cardinals vs. Jaguars | Cardinals +2.5/+3 | Anti-Jags blowout; home dog bounce back, spot/trends | 51:35-55:43 | | Falcons @ Saints | Pass/Saints lean | Ugly game, fade Kirk Cousins' dreadful track record at NO | 55:43-57:59 | | Eagles @ Cowboys | Eagles -3 (wait) | Line move sharp to Dallas; worth monitoring; Eagles undervalued | 57:59-63:04 | | Bucs @ Rams (SNF) | Rams -6.5 | McVay off division game; fade Baker primetime struggles | 68:11-71:07 | | Panthers @ 49ers (MNF) | Panthers +7 | Fade Niners big home faves after win, trends favor Panthers, Niners overvalued | 71:31-75:23 |

(*) Simon Says best bet

Bottom Line:
Chad and Simon blend sharp data, creative angles, and brutally honest opinions. Week 12 is all about riding bounce-back favorites in the right spot (Lions, Seahawks), holding your nose and grabbing ugly road dogs when trends demand it (Steelers, Bengals), and watching line movement for best entry points on coin-flip showdowns (Eagles-Cowboys, Colts-Chiefs).