Sharp or Square – NFL Week 12 Reactions
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Date: November 24, 2025
Episode Theme:
Chad and Simon, professional sports bettors and hosts of "Sharp or Square," break down their reactions to NFL Week 12. They dissect their own betting picks, review key games, analyze line movements, and highlight notable performances and coaching decisions—always with an eye toward what was a “sharp” (wiseguy-approved) or “square” (public) side. Their candid, energetic style offers insight for casual bettors and seasoned pros alike, with sharp commentary on the numbers, trends, and weirdness of NFL betting.
Episode Structure:
- Opening Live Reaction & Contest Picks Review
- Key Game-by-Game Analysis
- Betting Strategy Insights
- Listener Questions
- Shame on You & Hero of the Week Awards
- Early Leans for Week 13
- Contest & Final Thoughts
1. Opening: Final Sweats & Pick Recap
- The show opens mid-sweat as the hosts and chat are following the end of the Cowboys +3.5 vs Eagles bet.
- Emotion is high, as the Cowboys complete a comeback to cover, finishing off the hosts’ contest card for the week.
Summary of Picks:
- Wins: Bengals +8.5, Colts +3.5, Cowboys +3.5
- Losses: Lions -10.5, Cardinals +2.5
Memorable Quote:
Chad (05:43): “The Eagles blew it on the day. The Eagles have blown it. Wow. They gave up a 21 nothing lead.”
2. Game-by-Game Analysis, Insights & Notable Moments
Detroit Lions -10.5 vs Giants (Discussion: 07:00-11:28)
- Chad and Simon express disappointment in a “bad bet.” Despite grabbing a favorable line, Lions' defense allowed multiple big plays and two TDs on trick plays.
- Offensive issues: Goff “looks off,” O-line is struggling, Laporta’s absence huge.
Notable Quotes:
- Chad (09:34): “Wandale Robinson was open just about every play ... nobody on the Lions could cover Wandale Robinson or stop Jameis Winston today.”
- Simon (11:07): “We should downgrade them a little. They’re not the juggernaut we make them out to be.”
Cincinnati Bengals +8.5 vs Patriots (11:28-15:54)
- Bengals survive a Joe Flacco pick-six. Defense credited with big goal-line stops.
- Flacco’s struggles, but delivers a late, critical TD. Defense “maligned all season” steps up.
Notable Quotes:
- Simon (12:44): “Man, I think anyone watching that game ... he couldn’t even hit guys in the flat that were wide open.”
- Chad (13:35): “They had two 4th and goal stands in the middle of the fourth quarter ... good for the Bengals defense.”
Colts +3.5 at Chiefs (16:07-21:36)
- Colts started fast, even picking off Mahomes early. Coaching decisions, especially a conservative end-of-half sequence, cost them.
- Chiefs again inconsistent. Both teams “just off,” offense not clicking for full 60 mins.
Notable Quotes:
- Chad (20:10): “It’s similar as the Lions ... enough sort of magic, confidence, execution, ability at the end ... but they’re putting themselves in a position to have to put it together at the end.”
- Simon (17:56): “It’s rare where you have a dog that’s a good number and they cover for every second of a game ... But this Chiefs team, it’s really weird right now ... something’s just off a little bit.”
Cardinals +2.5 vs Jacksonville (23:39-27:04)
- “Disgusting” loss: Cards dominated, forced four turnovers from Trevor Lawrence, but couldn’t capitalize. Game hinged on contest line being only 2.5, missing cover versus closing 3.
Quote:
Simon (24:30): “This is life betting ugly dogs ... we usually win those bets when getting four turnovers ... but Arizona’s defense is just atrocious.”
Dallas Cowboys +3.5 vs Eagles (27:04-31:34)
- Most dramatic sweat: Dallas was down 21-0, benefited from Eagles’ collapse.
- Cowboys backers frustrated with CeeDee Lamb’s drops; Pickens credited with “saving” them with a huge game.
Quotes:
- Chad (28:48): “Cowboys were down 21 nothing. ... In the second half, the Eagles collapsed all the ways in which the Cowboys had collapsed the first half.”
- Simon (28:57): “I just couldn’t believe someone was putting seven figures on this Cowboys team ... I was just like, these idiots. Why did I follow these guys so heavy into this game?”
Seattle -12.5 vs Tennessee (37:22-40:13)
- Third straight week Titans get garbage-time backdoor cover. Seattle led comfortably; Titans extended 4th quarter, drove the field repeatedly against soft defense.
Avoided: Steelers +2.5 at Bears (40:13-42:46)
- Mason Rudolph not trusted as starter, Bears end up winning and covering; Chad happy with decision to avoid backing a risky dog.
3. Betting Strategy, Trends & Meta
- Sharp-vs-square breakdowns often come down to trusting numbers, not overreacting to public perception, and knowing when to hold firm or switch picks due to line movement ("got the hook" on Colts, avoided Pittsburgh, for example).
- Noted the volatility of big favorites: "If you take a fav like that, you need almost a perfect game." (Simon, 09:04)
4. Listener Q&A (43:26–47:01)
- Playoff seeding, likely AFC road favorites, public perception shaping lines.
- Eagles OC Kevin Petullo’s status: consensus is he won't be fired midseason, despite offensive woes.
5. Shame on You & Hero of the Week
Shame on You (48:06–51:17)
- Simon: CeeDee Lamb for critical drops and what he describes as a lackluster effort and focus, nearly costing Dallas the game.
- Simon (48:18): "He tried to make it very difficult for us at every stop, Chad ... A guy at his level, a top three wide receiver in this league, you just do not expect him to have multiple games like this."
- Chad: Shane Steichen, Colts head coach, for conservative and questionable late-game management, including punting on 4th-and-4, giving Mahomes too much time.
- Chad (49:23): "All of the analytics ... say you go for it in that situation ... you gave the ball back to Patrick Mahomes with a lot of time left, and clearly it didn't work out."
Hero of the Week (55:18–56:37)
- Simon: Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions), whose explosive runs and overtime heroics bailed out Detroit and Moneyline bettors.
- Simon (55:20): "He just, I had an obscene amount of money on the Lions ... but Gibbs, 15 carries, 219 yards, averaged 14.6 yards per carry, two touchdowns. It's incredible how good he is."
- Chad: Lou Anarumo, Colts (former Bengals) defensive coordinator, for his success crafting a scheme that again gave Mahomes trouble and kept the Colts close enough for the cover.
6. Early Leans for Week 13 (59:34–61:19)
- Simon’s Early Bets:
- Lions -3 vs Packers (“took the line early”)
- Dallas +3.5 vs Chiefs
- Bengals +8.5 vs Ravens
- Waiting to see Bears/Eagles line movement before betting
- Browns +6 vs 49ers (“good number for this matchup” if it stays or moves up)
- Colts -3.5 vs Texans (in case CJ Stroud ruled out)
7. Contest Updates & Final Thoughts
- Sharper Square NFL Pick ‘Em contest returning for Week 14 through Super Bowl, with grand prize: trip to Hard Rock Hotel & Casino, plus NBA tickets (61:19–62:49).
- Weekly review: 3-2 record (Cowboys +3.5, Bengals +8.5, Colts +3.5 wins; Lions -10.5, Cards +2.5 losses).
- Quote:
Chad (62:55): “Men, long day. This has been Sharp or Square presented by Hard Rock Bet…”
Notable Quotes & Timestamps
- “The Eagles have blown it. Wow.” - Chad, 05:43
- “We should downgrade them ... not the juggernaut we make them out to be.” - Simon, 11:07
- “Joe Flacco ... was truly heroic today. He did okay by us. He did all right by us.” - Chad, 16:07
- “I keep telling you, they keep being overvalued by the books... They’re just not the team they were before.” - Simon, 17:56
- “There's something just off about how they're operating right now and it's so inconsistent.” - Chad, 20:10
- “Bad beat. It was just a bad beat. You know, it happens.” - Chad, 27:04 (after Cardinals +2.5 loss)
- “Pickens saved our ass as well ... nine targets, nine catches, 146 yards and a touchdown.” - Simon, 28:57
- “Type of game the Bears needed to win ... really impressive what this coaching staff does with Caleb Williams.” - Simon, 42:23
- “Shame on you, CeeDee Lamb.” - Simon, 48:09
- “Shame, shame, shame on Shane [Steichen].” - Chad, 49:23
- “Jahmyr Gibbs ... 15 carries, 219 yards, averaged 14.6 yards per carry, for two touchdowns. It’s just incredible how good he is.” - Simon, 55:20
- “Lou Anarumo ... kept that game close enough for us to get the cover today.” - Chad, 56:37
Summary Table (Key Picks & Results)
| Pick | Result | Reasoning/Take | |--------------------------|----------|-----------------------------------------------------| | Cowboys +3.5 vs Eagles | Win | Live sweat, comeback win after 21-0 down, CeeDee critique | | Bengals +8.5 vs Patriots | Win | Survived ugly Flacco pick-6, D made goal-line stops | | Colts +3.5 at Chiefs | Win | Early dominance, late questionable coaching | | Lions -10.5 vs Giants | Loss | Trick plays, defensive and O-line issues | | Cardinals +2.5 vs Jags | Loss | Four turnovers, didn't capitalize, bad beat |
Tone & Style:
The episode is a lively, honest back-and-forth full of betting jargon, candid admissions of frustration, and quick pivots from game breakdowns to contest and community notes. Both hosts balance sharp analysis with humor and self-deprecation, connecting betting insights to both X’s and O’s and the emotional swings of gambling.
For Bettors Who Missed It:
This episode captures the thrills, agony, and decision-making of NFL betting at the professional level. Chad and Simon break down why their wins and losses happened, dissect market moves, and highlight that sometimes "the right side" doesn't pay—while still providing actionable advice heading into the next week.
For more episodes and picks, subscribe to "Sharp or Square" on your favorite podcast platform.