Sharp or Square – NFL WEEK 13 BETS: In-Depth Recap & Summary

Podcast: Sharp or Square (iHeartPodcasts & The Volume)
Episode: NFL WEEK 13 Bets: Packers-Lions, Chiefs-Cowboys, Bengals-Ravens, Bears-Eagles, Bills-Steelers and more
Date: November 25, 2025
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter

Episode Overview

On this special “Turducken” Thanksgiving week episode, betting analyst Chad Millman and professional bettor Simon Hunter walk through all the big NFL Week 13 matchups, breaking down betting lines, situational angles, and sharp vs. square plays for Thursday’s holiday tripleheader and the full weekend slate. They sprinkle in unique historical nuggets, contest plans, and their signature segments—Simon Says, Chad’s Choice, and Brass Balls Bet—while bringing sharp insights and their signature banter.

Key Themes and Structure

Thanksgiving Week Football: The tradition and quirkiness of betting holiday games.
Statistical Trends: Heavy focus on historical ATS/favorite records, especially for holiday games.
Sharps vs. Squares: How pros think about line movement, public action, and market inefficiencies.
Contest Announcement: New free pick-em contest officially relaunching for Week 14.
Game-by-Game Analysis: Deep dives on each major game, standout bets, and line movement explained.
Signature Segments: Simon Says, Chad’s Choice, Brass Balls Bet, and other favorite picks.
Personality and Banter: Genuine, playful exchanges between Chad and Simon, with memorable stories and personal touches.

Segment Summaries & Analysis

Thanksgiving Slate

Packers at Lions (DET -2.5)

Sharps Passive on New Line: Early money pulled DET from -3 to -2.5, pros liked Packers at +3 but not current number.
Market & Matchup: Both teams underperforming offensively; Goff playing worse, offensive injuries mounting.
Simon: “Favorites on Thanksgiving since 2004: 51-9 straight up, 40-20 ATS.” (10:09)
Verdict: Slight lean Lions at current number, but neither host fully confident. Past trends favor favorites, but market move gives pause.
Chad: “If I’m betting this game, I’m betting the Lions. I haven’t gotten there yet because I might want to invest more in other games.” (14:08)

Chiefs at Cowboys (KC -3)

Major Line Move: Opened KC -4.5, bet down to -3. Pressure on Cowboys, but Simon is surprised by sharp movement.
Situational Factors: Both teams coming off tough games; Chiefs in bad spot after OT—”6-21 straight up, 5-22 ATS after OT in this spot” (16:01)
ATS Trends: “Dak in his career is 2-5 ATS on Thanksgiving, usually too much public love.” (17:47)
Superstition: “Lions & Cowboys haven’t covered on the same Thanksgiving day since 2001.” (17:56)
Consensus: No bet at 3—line is too efficient; wait for sharper value or market movement.

Bengals at Ravens (BAL -7)

Burrow Uncertain, Line Eased Down: Opened 7.5, down to 7 with Joe Burrow potentially returning.
Public/Sharp Split: Majority (70%) of bets on Bengals; is this a “public dog” or real value?
Simon: “As a 3+ point dog, Burrow is 17-3 ATS. But most of Burrow’s career, he’s struggled with Lamar, 1-5 ATS.” (24:12)
Health Watch: Lamar and Ravens banged up, Bengals getting big players back.
Chad: “Seven is the number you give this game when Lamar is at full strength. But I don’t think that’s where this Ravens team is.” (21:02)
Simon: “I have some pause here… big dogs on Thanksgiving just do NOT cover.” (23:30)
Final Take: Slight lean Bengals +7, but only if Burrow is confirmed starting.

Top Sunday Games

Bears at Eagles (PHI -6.5) — Simon Says (27:00)

Market Overreacting?: PHI dropped from -7 to -6.5 despite Bears being uninspiring.
Matchup Angle: Bears have lived off turnovers, but Eagles defense the best unit on the field.
Simon: “Eagles are 10-0 ATS after divisional games since last year, covering by 10 points per game.” (27:51)
Chad: “I’m looking for a reason to bet against the Bears. So I’m happy to go.” (29:05)
Official Play: Simon Says – Eagles -6.5

Texans at Colts (IND -4)

Early Bet: Simon liked Colts at -3.5, anticipating public love for Texans to move line.
QB Health Drives Line: CJ Stroud expected back; Colts offense matches up well with Texans D.
Simon: “I did not see it moving a point, but I’ll stand firm. I love the matchup for Colts offensively.” (31:41)

49ers at Browns (SF -5.5) — Chad’s Choice (38:10)

Chad’s Choice: Browns +5.5 (bet at 6.5)—trusting this defense at home, fading Purdy inflation after big stat game.
Simon: “I’m so happy to see this number come down… we’re getting free points here.” (41:15)
Line Watch: “This game should be closer to 3.5 or 4, we’re getting away with one.” (41:49)

Bucs at Cardinals (TB -2.5)

QB Uncertainty: Baker Mayfield injury; could be Teddy Bridgewater, the “Teddy Covers” legend.
Baker News Key: If Baker plays, line jumps to -6; if Teddy, still value at -2.5.
Simon: “No matter what, people should be betting this Bucs -2.5 now. I cannot see it getting lower.” (47:06)

Dolphins vs. Saints (MIA -5.5)

Crossed Key Number: Bounced between 4.5 and 6; both hosts lean Dolphins in teasers, not much interest in mainline bet at this number.
Weather & Uniform Angle: “If Miami’s at home in the sun, 1pm, in the whites — by the fourth quarter they're cooked.” (48:12)

Rams at Panthers (LAR -10)

Market Overreaction: Rams heavily favored; Simon’s model only makes it Rams -7.
Betting Angle: Pros will be on Carolina +10; “This feels like the right spot, an egregious number.” (51:05)
Chad: “I’m thinking about a Carolina-Cleveland moneyline parlay—gross, I love it.” (52:27)

Jets vs. Falcons (ATL -2.5) — Brass Balls Bet (57:43)

Brass Balls Bet of the Week: Jets +2.5
QB Angle: Tyrod Taylor is “a covering machine;” if he or Fields is in, trust them to move the ball.
Falcons Overvalued: Kirk Cousins as a 2.5-point road favorite “should jump out at everybody.”
Simon: “I could easily see this being our contest pick come Sunday.” (61:28)

Other Notable Bets

Steelers +3.5 vs. Bills: Classic home-dog vs. overvalued Bills; both leery of putting actual money but recognize this as a sharp side. (74:17)
Giants +7.5 at Patriots: Injury angle against a depleted Pats O-line, likely start for Jackson Dart boosts Giants value; both see the number as a bargain. (80:30)

Other Segments & Running Jokes

Notable Banter & Quotes

On Football Traditions:
“Thanksgiving Day—family and football and the feast. You don’t need much to be rich on Thanksgiving Day.”
— Simon Hunter (03:43)
On Market Moves:
“We’re not just saying you gotta bet every game. That’s not the point.”
—Chad Millman (19:11)
On Trevor Lawrence:
“He just doesn’t learn from his mistakes—it’s so bizarre. His regression has been alarming these last two, three years…”
—Simon Hunter (64:34)
On Browns/49ers:
“This isn’t about Dylan Gabriel at QB. It’s about the Browns at home as a dog with this defense. We liked this on Sunday night; I’m still betting into it.”
—Chad Millman (38:10)
On Betting Thanksgiving Dogs:
“Historically, it’s just not a good day to be backing dogs.”
—Simon Hunter (22:38)

Historical and Situational Angles

Favorites on Thanksgiving: 40-20 ATS since 2004.
Teams off OT then on short week: Historically terrible ATS, emphasized with Chiefs and Lions this week.
Eagles after divisional games: 10-0 ATS the past two years, covering by 10 ppg.
Lions & Cowboys covering same Thanksgiving: Not done since 2001 (fun superstition).

Contest Announcement

Return of the Pick’Em: Free contest re-launches Week 14, play from same lines, compete for trip to Florida/casino.
Chad: “We’re all gonna be picking games from the same lines against each other… free to sign up.” (07:10)

Timestamps for Key Games & Segments

| Segment | Time | |-----------------------------|----------| | Thanksgiving Introduction | 03:43 | | Packers-Lions | 08:51 | | Chiefs-Cowboys | 15:23 | | Bengals-Ravens | 19:54 | | Bears-Eagles (Simon Says) | 25:29 | | Texans-Colts | 29:25 | | Browns-49ers (Chad's Choice)| 38:10 | | Bucs-Cardinals | 44:20 | | Dolphins-Saints | 48:12 | | Rams-Panthers | 48:48 | | Jets-Falcons (Brass Balls) | 57:43 | | Titans-Jags | 62:46 | | Steelers-Bills | 73:35 | | Giants-Patriots | 79:27 |

Notable Bets/Favorites Recap

Simon Says: Eagles -6.5 vs. Bears
Chad’s Choice: Browns +5.5 vs. 49ers
Brass Balls Bet: Jets +2.5 vs. Falcons
Like It/Leans: Colts -4 vs. Texans, Bucs -2.5 vs. Cards, Panthers +10 vs. Rams, Giants +7.5 vs. Patriots

Conclusion & Takeaways

Millman and Hunter emphasize the importance of timing, line shopping, and understanding when not to force bets. Their most passionate positions center around fading overvalued favorites, supporting ugly home dogs, and scooping value when injuries or public overcorrections move lines. As always, they keep a sense of humor about the slings and arrows of NFL betting—”Let’s give thanks for the opportunity to bet Tyrod Taylor and Shador Sanders and Bryce Young… let’s just be gross.” (61:28)

Chad: “Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.” (85:37)

Listen to the full episode for in-depth reasoning, player/injury insight, and plenty more banter. For contest details, visit sharpersquare.thevolume.com.

Sharp or Square – NFL WEEK 13 BETS: In-Depth Recap & Summary

Episode Overview

Key Themes and Structure

Thanksgiving Week Football: The tradition and quirkiness of betting holiday games.
Statistical Trends: Heavy focus on historical ATS/favorite records, especially for holiday games.
Sharps vs. Squares: How pros think about line movement, public action, and market inefficiencies.
Contest Announcement: New free pick-em contest officially relaunching for Week 14.
Game-by-Game Analysis: Deep dives on each major game, standout bets, and line movement explained.
Signature Segments: Simon Says, Chad’s Choice, Brass Balls Bet, and other favorite picks.
Personality and Banter: Genuine, playful exchanges between Chad and Simon, with memorable stories and personal touches.

Segment Summaries & Analysis

Thanksgiving Slate

Packers at Lions (DET -2.5)

Sharps Passive on New Line: Early money pulled DET from -3 to -2.5, pros liked Packers at +3 but not current number.
Market & Matchup: Both teams underperforming offensively; Goff playing worse, offensive injuries mounting.
Simon: “Favorites on Thanksgiving since 2004: 51-9 straight up, 40-20 ATS.” (10:09)
Verdict: Slight lean Lions at current number, but neither host fully confident. Past trends favor favorites, but market move gives pause.
Chad: “If I’m betting this game, I’m betting the Lions. I haven’t gotten there yet because I might want to invest more in other games.” (14:08)

Chiefs at Cowboys (KC -3)

Major Line Move: Opened KC -4.5, bet down to -3. Pressure on Cowboys, but Simon is surprised by sharp movement.
Situational Factors: Both teams coming off tough games; Chiefs in bad spot after OT—”6-21 straight up, 5-22 ATS after OT in this spot” (16:01)
ATS Trends: “Dak in his career is 2-5 ATS on Thanksgiving, usually too much public love.” (17:47)
Superstition: “Lions & Cowboys haven’t covered on the same Thanksgiving day since 2001.” (17:56)
Consensus: No bet at 3—line is too efficient; wait for sharper value or market movement.

Bengals at Ravens (BAL -7)

Burrow Uncertain, Line Eased Down: Opened 7.5, down to 7 with Joe Burrow potentially returning.
Public/Sharp Split: Majority (70%) of bets on Bengals; is this a “public dog” or real value?
Simon: “As a 3+ point dog, Burrow is 17-3 ATS. But most of Burrow’s career, he’s struggled with Lamar, 1-5 ATS.” (24:12)
Health Watch: Lamar and Ravens banged up, Bengals getting big players back.
Chad: “Seven is the number you give this game when Lamar is at full strength. But I don’t think that’s where this Ravens team is.” (21:02)
Simon: “I have some pause here… big dogs on Thanksgiving just do NOT cover.” (23:30)
Final Take: Slight lean Bengals +7, but only if Burrow is confirmed starting.

Top Sunday Games

Bears at Eagles (PHI -6.5) — Simon Says (27:00)

Market Overreacting?: PHI dropped from -7 to -6.5 despite Bears being uninspiring.
Matchup Angle: Bears have lived off turnovers, but Eagles defense the best unit on the field.
Simon: “Eagles are 10-0 ATS after divisional games since last year, covering by 10 points per game.” (27:51)
Chad: “I’m looking for a reason to bet against the Bears. So I’m happy to go.” (29:05)
Official Play: Simon Says – Eagles -6.5

Texans at Colts (IND -4)

Early Bet: Simon liked Colts at -3.5, anticipating public love for Texans to move line.
QB Health Drives Line: CJ Stroud expected back; Colts offense matches up well with Texans D.
Simon: “I did not see it moving a point, but I’ll stand firm. I love the matchup for Colts offensively.” (31:41)

49ers at Browns (SF -5.5) — Chad’s Choice (38:10)

Chad’s Choice: Browns +5.5 (bet at 6.5)—trusting this defense at home, fading Purdy inflation after big stat game.
Simon: “I’m so happy to see this number come down… we’re getting free points here.” (41:15)
Line Watch: “This game should be closer to 3.5 or 4, we’re getting away with one.” (41:49)

Bucs at Cardinals (TB -2.5)

QB Uncertainty: Baker Mayfield injury; could be Teddy Bridgewater, the “Teddy Covers” legend.
Baker News Key: If Baker plays, line jumps to -6; if Teddy, still value at -2.5.
Simon: “No matter what, people should be betting this Bucs -2.5 now. I cannot see it getting lower.” (47:06)

Dolphins vs. Saints (MIA -5.5)

Crossed Key Number: Bounced between 4.5 and 6; both hosts lean Dolphins in teasers, not much interest in mainline bet at this number.
Weather & Uniform Angle: “If Miami’s at home in the sun, 1pm, in the whites — by the fourth quarter they're cooked.” (48:12)

Rams at Panthers (LAR -10)

Market Overreaction: Rams heavily favored; Simon’s model only makes it Rams -7.
Betting Angle: Pros will be on Carolina +10; “This feels like the right spot, an egregious number.” (51:05)
Chad: “I’m thinking about a Carolina-Cleveland moneyline parlay—gross, I love it.” (52:27)

Jets vs. Falcons (ATL -2.5) — Brass Balls Bet (57:43)

Brass Balls Bet of the Week: Jets +2.5
QB Angle: Tyrod Taylor is “a covering machine;” if he or Fields is in, trust them to move the ball.
Falcons Overvalued: Kirk Cousins as a 2.5-point road favorite “should jump out at everybody.”
Simon: “I could easily see this being our contest pick come Sunday.” (61:28)

Other Notable Bets

Steelers +3.5 vs. Bills: Classic home-dog vs. overvalued Bills; both leery of putting actual money but recognize this as a sharp side. (74:17)
Giants +7.5 at Patriots: Injury angle against a depleted Pats O-line, likely start for Jackson Dart boosts Giants value; both see the number as a bargain. (80:30)

Other Segments & Running Jokes

Notable Banter & Quotes

On Football Traditions:
“Thanksgiving Day—family and football and the feast. You don’t need much to be rich on Thanksgiving Day.”
— Simon Hunter (03:43)
On Market Moves:
“We’re not just saying you gotta bet every game. That’s not the point.”
—Chad Millman (19:11)
On Trevor Lawrence:
“He just doesn’t learn from his mistakes—it’s so bizarre. His regression has been alarming these last two, three years…”
—Simon Hunter (64:34)
On Browns/49ers:
“This isn’t about Dylan Gabriel at QB. It’s about the Browns at home as a dog with this defense. We liked this on Sunday night; I’m still betting into it.”
—Chad Millman (38:10)
On Betting Thanksgiving Dogs:
“Historically, it’s just not a good day to be backing dogs.”
—Simon Hunter (22:38)

Historical and Situational Angles

Favorites on Thanksgiving: 40-20 ATS since 2004.
Teams off OT then on short week: Historically terrible ATS, emphasized with Chiefs and Lions this week.
Eagles after divisional games: 10-0 ATS the past two years, covering by 10 ppg.
Lions & Cowboys covering same Thanksgiving: Not done since 2001 (fun superstition).

Contest Announcement

Return of the Pick’Em: Free contest re-launches Week 14, play from same lines, compete for trip to Florida/casino.
Chad: “We’re all gonna be picking games from the same lines against each other… free to sign up.” (07:10)

Timestamps for Key Games & Segments

Notable Bets/Favorites Recap

Simon Says: Eagles -6.5 vs. Bears
Chad’s Choice: Browns +5.5 vs. 49ers
Brass Balls Bet: Jets +2.5 vs. Falcons
Like It/Leans: Colts -4 vs. Texans, Bucs -2.5 vs. Cards, Panthers +10 vs. Rams, Giants +7.5 vs. Patriots

Conclusion & Takeaways

Chad: “Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.” (85:37)

Listen to the full episode for in-depth reasoning, player/injury insight, and plenty more banter. For contest details, visit sharpersquare.thevolume.com.

NFL WEEK 13 BETS: Packers-Lions, Chiefs-Cowboys, Bengals-Ravens, Bears-Eagles, Bills-Steelers and more

Powered by Wave AI

Summary

Sharp or Square – NFL WEEK 13 BETS: In-Depth Recap & Summary

Episode Overview

Key Themes and Structure

Segment Summaries & Analysis

Thanksgiving Slate

Packers at Lions (DET -2.5)

Chiefs at Cowboys (KC -3)

Bengals at Ravens (BAL -7)

Top Sunday Games

Bears at Eagles (PHI -6.5) — Simon Says (27:00)

Texans at Colts (IND -4)

49ers at Browns (SF -5.5) — Chad’s Choice (38:10)

Bucs at Cardinals (TB -2.5)

Dolphins vs. Saints (MIA -5.5)

Rams at Panthers (LAR -10)

Jets vs. Falcons (ATL -2.5) — Brass Balls Bet (57:43)

Other Notable Bets

Other Segments & Running Jokes

Notable Banter & Quotes

Historical and Situational Angles

Contest Announcement

Timestamps for Key Games & Segments

Notable Bets/Favorites Recap

Conclusion & Takeaways

Summary

Sharp or Square – NFL WEEK 13 BETS: In-Depth Recap & Summary

Episode Overview

Key Themes and Structure

Segment Summaries & Analysis

Thanksgiving Slate

Packers at Lions (DET -2.5)

Chiefs at Cowboys (KC -3)

Bengals at Ravens (BAL -7)

Top Sunday Games

Bears at Eagles (PHI -6.5) — Simon Says (27:00)

Texans at Colts (IND -4)

49ers at Browns (SF -5.5) — Chad’s Choice (38:10)

Bucs at Cardinals (TB -2.5)

Dolphins vs. Saints (MIA -5.5)

Rams at Panthers (LAR -10)

Jets vs. Falcons (ATL -2.5) — Brass Balls Bet (57:43)

Other Notable Bets

Other Segments & Running Jokes

Notable Banter & Quotes

Historical and Situational Angles

Contest Announcement

Timestamps for Key Games & Segments

Notable Bets/Favorites Recap

Conclusion & Takeaways