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Sharp or Square
NFL WEEK 13 BETS: Packers-Lions, Chiefs-Cowboys, Bengals-Ravens, Bears-Eagles, Bills-Steelers and more
01:14:36
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- [00:00]
Sponsor/Ad Voice
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:02]
Simon Hunter
Guaranteed Human.
- [00:04]
Sponsor/Ad Voice
This podcast is sponsored by PayPal. All right, let's talk holiday shopping. From now through December 8th, you can get 20% cash back when you pay in four with PayPal. No fees, no interest. This limited time offer is perfect for the Black Friday and Cyber Monday deals you've been eyeing. Save the offer in the app right now, so whether it's a must have merch or for that signed jersey you've been eyeing, PayPal helps you make the most of your money. This holiday expires December 8th. See paypal.com promoterms Subject to approval.
- [00:42]
Simon Hunter
Learn more at paypal.com payin4paypal inc.nmls910457 Today's.
- [00:49]
Sponsor/Ad Voice
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- [01:22]
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- [02:15]
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Simon Hunter
Uh, limu is that guy with the binoculars watching us.
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Simon Hunter
By Liberty Mutual Insurance company and Affiliates Excludes Massachusetts.
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Simon Hunter
Yes, Thanksgiving Day Family and football and the feast. You don't need much to be rich on Thanksgiving Day.
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Chad Millman
Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock bet. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined as always by my bff, my companion, my compadre, my co host, professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello Simon.
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Simon Hunter
Chad. This week is truly the football fans holiday week. It feels like if you're a die hard football fan, you love food. This is our week, Thanksgiving week. It's the, it's what we all know, right? You're just sitting around your family watching three tend to be terrible games and it's the best though. It's just a, it's, it's a very American classic thing. Now as I get older I start to appreciate more and more of just family football on a Thursday.
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Chad Millman
Well listen, you know I don't like food but I do love the football and I do love my family, especially because they have left the house and are now coming back which is pure, pure joy. I'll also get my dad, his wife, my mother in law. It's going to be a full house here in the Millman Manch. I'm excited. I'm also excited because we gotta do a show today and just a reminder to everybody, we got the Tuesday show. So in the Tuesday show we'll have the Brass balls, we'll have the Chad's Choice, we'll have the Simon says we won't have a show on Thursday. On Sunday we will do our parlay. Bats and rock and hard place and sharp calls and your biggest bets. This is kind of like our Turducken show. It's the Turducken of betting shows. It's full of our favorite bets.
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Simon Hunter
Love it. Again, a happy Thanksgiving. We got a turducken, right? Yeah. This thing here is a deboned duck.
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Sponsor/Ad Voice
Stuffed in a deboned chicken stuffed in a deboned turkey with stuffing. Now you're talking.
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Chad Millman
Do you want to hear my Turducken story?
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Simon Hunter
God, do we have time for a story today? We have to go through a lot of games, Chad.
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Chad Millman
We have time. You always say no to my stories. I'll just tell you this. When I wrote the book the Odds, which is my best selling book about the world of sports betting that I wrote, you know, 25 years ago, a guy from Baton Rouge, Louisiana, a lawyer in Baton Rouge, Louisiana named Nathan Fisher, left me a message on my answering machine. This is how long ago this was a message on my answering machine telling me how much he loved the book. Invited me down to Baton Rouge. I went because why not hung out with Nate Fisher. That led to. That led to me doing a story about big baby Glen Davis. I remained friends with Nathan Fisher and every year Nathan Fisher for the holidays would send me a turducken.
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Simon Hunter
There you go.
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Chad Millman
This one's for Nathan Fisher and the turducken. We went 3, 2 last week in our five favorite picks from our Sunday morning show. We won with the Bengals. We won with the Colts. We won with the Cowboys. We lost with the Cardinals and the Lions. For the year, we are 34 and 26 through 11 weeks. Listen, before we talk, the Thanksgiving games, in case you missed it, our free pick them contest officially returns next week. What does that mean? That means that we are all going to be picking games from the same exact lines in the same exact contest number one. That is the thrill. We again apologize if you did not hear. We are super excited and it took a little while because we're in the betting space and there's a lot of regulations when you're going to do a contest and it just takes a long time to get things done. We are super excited that it's coming back. Pickstart Week 14 if you're worried you'll somehow forget and you want to pre register, just Visit Sharp or square.thevolume.com that's sharpersquare.thevolume.com Sign up for free. We're all going to play from the Same lines against each other. We're going to play through the end of the playoffs. We're going to have a full nine weeks to play a contest against each other. Producer Matt Mitchell is going to cover all the details in upcoming episodes for just go to sharp or square.thevolume.com to sign up. It's going to be a blast.
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Simon Hunter
And the more that of you that do sign up and, you know, help us out next year, we get a better contest, better prizes. So even if you're just. Yeah, it's so late in the season, I don't want to do it. Dude. Free show. Please people, join up. This is, this is something that's really exciting. We worked really hard behind the scenes. Matt Mitchell, tons of credit to him.
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Chad Millman
Yeah, all credit to Matt Mitchell. Play, play along. It's a free contest and the winner gets a trip to Florida and goes to games and gets to stay in a casino and look up the hotel.
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Simon Hunter
It is sick. I've been there before. This is not. I went non sponsored. I went down there for some business and it's, it's legit. A really awesome spot down there. Hard Rock.
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Chad Millman
They do it right.
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Simon Hunter
Yeah.
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Chad Millman
Let's do some Thanksgiving football because that's what we love. Green Bay at Detroit. Detroit minus two and a half. Look, early money pulled this from three to two and a half money coming in on the packers and they were the more dominant team on Sunday if you look at it in their matchup with Minnesota. But that's not saying much considering JJ McCarthy who we're going to dig into a little bit later. The Lions got beat up and down the field by the Giants and needed a miracle from Jamar, from Jameer Gibbs at the end of the game to win. It's a weird game for me. I feel like I want to take the two and a half and then I feel like that's a little bit of a sucker bet because it's already moved against me and I'm taking a bite that I shouldn't take. Haven't played this one yet.
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Simon Hunter
Yeah, it's, it's unique. We're just. I think we're both in the same boat. We've got burned by this Lions team. We don't really trust them right now. But like I talked about last week, week, that felt very fluky with that Giants game. Like I said, you just two trick play touchdowns. That just doesn't happen. One trick play in the game. Touchdown is, is very rare. I don't even think any other game had a play touchdown they had two against them, this Lions team. So you know, as much as I want to be up their defense, they did have guys streaking wide open and James took advantage of it. This packers team, even watching that game against the Vikings, it felt like it was exactly what you said. It felt like JJ lost that game and gifted it to the Packers. Packers really beat them and played that great. I mean respect the Wilson, the kid that came in to run the ball. He played really well. I still think there's something a little off with Jordan Love and there's just something I don't like and trust about him right now. So I, I joke that Thanksgiving, it's like they have good food and a lot of crappy football and it's just because it is a chalk heavy day. We've talked about this ad nauseam, but I'm going to read a lot of stats today just to bring up about how unique Thanksgiving is and just about what tends to happen on these exact days. So we know the deal. Favorites on Thanksgiving since 2004, 51 and nine straight up. Chad. Okay, that's, that's pretty shocking. The more shocking part is against the spread, they're 40 and 20. That's wild. Favorites going 40 and 20 since 2004 on Thanksgiving. So we joke all the time. It's like the books give us gifts, they give us these favorites and unfortunately only double digit favorites which is insane. They're 100 against the spread on Thanksgiving. But you know, this is a unique spot and from the pros I've talked to that back this backwards. Like you just said, the. The three was available and it disappeared. It's just about the overtime and all the stats that go against the Lions because they played an overtime game. But my pushback against that was their offense at two snaps in overtime. Like Gibbs took that for a long touchdown. The second carry I believe for a touchdown. Yeah, I mean maybe you could say, well their defense is on the field a ton and that is fair. You know we talked earlier in the year.
- [11:52]
Sponsor/Ad Voice
It's.
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Simon Hunter
It's a bad spot to be in overtime than playing a short week. And it only happened once this year. It was the Raiders team. We got burned by it. They played the Broncos. If you think back to that game, did the Raiders really keep that game closer? Is that just Bo Nicks just Terrible, terrible game. They barely won 10 to 7. Like it was just very fluky to me where the Raiders scored seven points, they had two turnovers and they, the Denver couldn't really take advantage of it. So you know, looking at the stats, Chad, it's not ideal when. When teams are on, you know, short rest like this, they're 24, 47 against the spread in this exact spot this Lions team is in now. I push back against it that we talk about Campbell in his coaching career. Again, it's been tough because this is all this is stats with Ben Johnson. He's done really well in games where he loses or doesn't cover consistently. So in this exact spot. So he's failed to cover in two straight games. Now he's 19 and five against the spread in the spot. So it's tough where it's like, usually the Lions and Campbell bounce back here and they cover in these exact games. And I've seen a tough little floor stats too about him being a dog before. I believe he's 18 and 6 against the spread as an underdog. So I, I get why there is so much packers love here. I just. I gotta trust this Lions team. The numbers move too much. I just think they're the better team, honestly, than this packers team. And I think this is a good matchup for them where I feel like Campbell's gonna treat that game as a loss, that game against the Giants because they were so embarrassed defensively with the Packers. They dominate. I feel like they're feeling good coming to this game and the. The public is backing up that sentiment. Like, like you said, they're. They're taking a ton of money right now and this numbers move. So again, I don't know if it's gonna be one of our contest picks. Like you said, you're not too confident. But I do really like it now that it's down to two and a half. I. I think that's. That's a lines number at this point. At 3, I could have maybe been talked into the packers, but now that's two and a half. I just. You're giving me golf at home where people are counting them out indoors. I just. I just can't pack the packers again. Packers, LaFleur, 1 and 6 against Campbell and golf and his career against the spread. There's just. Their only win and cover came this year in week one. So I like this match with this Lions team.
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Chad Millman
This Lions team and the Packers. Neither of them look right with offenses that are supposed to be amazing. Goff is thrown for a thousand fewer yards than he did at this time last year. He's getting sacked more frequently. The offensive line is not as good and it's injured. And Jameer Gibbs is kind of their Dominant offensive weapon. They're really a two dimensional team. If you want to bring in Aman Ross. St. Brown, who's got 75 catches. Jameson Williams only has 30 catches this year. Sam Laporte is not on the field. So we're betting a Lions team, I think based on past history and offensive performance. I'm with you. If I'm betting this game, I'm betting the Lions. I haven't gotten there yet because I think there's other games. I might want to just invest more in some other games than I want to bet into this Lions game.
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Simon Hunter
We're on the bus getting ready to broadcast the traditional Thanksgiving Day game. And John, as you think about all the people around the country sitting down to enjoy Thanksgiving with their friends and their families, we indeed have a lot to be thankful for.
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Sponsor/Ad Voice
To me, there's nothing better. There's just certain things that go together. You know, the turkey, the family, the tradition, football.
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Simon Hunter
And we have it all today.
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Chad Millman
One of those games that's getting really, really interesting is Kansas City is now a three point favorite at the Cowboys. But this line was four and a half and it's very similar to what we saw last week with the Cowboys opening his four and a half point home underdogs against a perennial super bowl contender. And now the line has been bet down to four to three and a half to three and like all of a sudden it's turning into a Kansas City Chiefs number.
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Simon Hunter
Yeah. And this was a game. Talk a little bit about it Sunday night. I just immediately grabbed the Cowboys just because of that Chiefs Colts game. That to me was the most physical game of the week. You know, as bad as you want to say, the Colts defenses, they play really hard and you know, they were really physically offensively against that Chiefs defense. And I just talked about it. It's a unique spot. The Chiefs played an overtime game that wasn't like the Lions game, was not just two plays and a touchdown. Right. They had to drive the field really grueling and it's a unique spot. Now the Chiefs are on the road on a short week after playing an overtime game which once again the exact same spot that Raiders team in. And just like the Raiders, this is a bad spot when you look at all the data. Right. And historically teams in this exact spot. The Chiefs on the road after playing an overtime game. 6 and 6 and 21 straight up, 5 and 22 against the spread. And you know, we, we're always looking for advantages here. I am shocked this number is moved because I just told you People like the favorites, the public usually lines up and bets them pretty heavily. And you know, like we're talking about right now, we know we're early in the week here, but just seeing what, you know, the public wants to do with this one. I am shocked. I'm shocked. The Cowboys again, it was an incredible win, that comeback win. But I thought the Chiefs win was better like that. They, they, they felt like they dominated that into the game and came back where the Cowboys, as good as they were, they made the plays. It felt like it was the Eagles that just totally fumbled that game. Let them back in. Like just everything went wrong. So really unique spot. The fact that this number has been moved. It's going to make it. They're trying to make me take the. The Chiefs here. Check. Because I'm on the Cowboys. They talk about I. There's still three and a half's out there at a very public book that you can get. But it's a unique spot in the sense that we tend to fade the Cowboys on Thanksgiving because they get so much public love and usually it's not that great of a number. Like that's the honest truth about it. I think Dak in his career is 2 and 5 against the spread on Thanksgiving. So even in his career he usually gets too much love from the public and the number doesn't make sense. So that's what I'm worried about here. If this gets a two and a half, that's. We talk all the time. That becomes a Mahomes number. It's three and above. You want to fade my homes. And it's a stupid stat, but I do love this stat. The Lions and the Cowboys haven't covered on the Same day since 2001. 2001. These two teams have played every Thanksgiving together. So I'm not gonna lie. If the, the Lions covered that early game, I'm not going to be putting more money in this Cowboys team. It sounds stupid and random, but I always love those stats because it is bizarre. And they Both have not gone two zero straight up and against the spread on Thanksgiving since 1994. So 30 years. Over 30 years. These two teams we play every Thanksgiving. And again that that just says how bad the Lions have been in our lifetime.
- [18:56]
Chad Millman
Yes.
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Simon Hunter
It also just says since 94 we've talked about this Cowboys team, how they've had a lull. Very bizarre those things, dad. So I do love the Cowboys, but I was hoping it's going to be three and a half. Unfortunately at Hard Rock here it's three yeah, it's.
- [19:11]
Chad Millman
The line has moved, I think, too much to really invest in the Cowboys. And because it's a three, it's right in the line of where you want to invest in the Chiefs at this number. I don't think anyone should be betting it. I think you got to wait until you get to one side or the other on this. There's just no edge. You know, we're trying to find edge. We're not just saying you gotta bet every game. That's not the point. And we're not betting games because of random 30 year old stats when the Lions have been a shitty team for 25 of those years.
- [19:39]
Sponsor/Ad Voice
I'll tell you, Pat, this stuff is.
- [19:40]
Simon Hunter
Looking good and smelling good and tasting good. We gotta dig in and start eating now. It is good, but you gotta hurry because it's getting close to game time. And we just like to say Happy Thanksgiving to you guys back in the studio.
- [19:54]
Chad Millman
You know what? What isn't insane betting the Cincinnati Bengals as seven point underdogs against the Baltimore Ravens on Thanksgiving Day when Joe Burrow is coming back to play. So let's do it. We haven't gotten official word that Joe Burrow was back, but all indications are that Joe Burrow is coming back and this line has moved from seven and a half down to seven. Plus Jamar Chase will be back. Plus Chase Brown. Who? Simon. Kudos to you all. Flowers. Early in the year you talked about how Chase Brown was a guy that you thought had a chance to really have an impact and potentially be a huge rushing number guy. This year and the last five games, he's proving it. Like the only time he's gone fewer than 70 yards in the past five games. Was it in that, in that shootout with the Bears that the Bengals lost, you know, 47, 42. To me, seven is the number you give this game when Lamar is at full strength and this Ravens defense is at peak performance. But if you even look at the game last week against the jets, they won 23, 10. They covered some of the numbers, but that was not a dominant performance. They still look like they are struggling week after week after week. Give me the Bengals +7.
- [21:14]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I love the Bengals, but it's, it's a bizarre number. It's a game that I have major pause on because I just, I don't get why they're still giving us the plus seven. We know it's probably going to be Joe Burrow. It's most likely going to be him.
- [21:26]
Chad Millman
And it did come down. It came down from Seven and a half.
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Simon Hunter
Yeah, but that's. That came out after it came out that, you know, Lamar wasn't practicing. He had a semi. You know, what was a toe injury or something like that or. I'm not sure yet. Some type of injury in that. That coach said it's not a big deal, but like we've talked about, none of us trust him right now. We think Lamar has looked off all season. Yeah. Playing through injuries all season. So technically, like I've talked about on Thanksgiving, this is a spot to back the Ravens because it's. You want to back the favorites. Like, I'm not trying to throw Chad on the bus here, but Chad likes the three dogs this week on Thanksgiving. That's a killer. You don't want to be on green, by the way.
- [22:04]
Chad Millman
I didn't.
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Simon Hunter
When did.
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Chad Millman
Hold on. I have not once said I like the Packers.
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Simon Hunter
I have said the three.
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Chad Millman
I said they were bet at three. I didn't say I liked them at three. I said they moved okay. I. I said the whole time. I said I like the Lions at two and a half. I just haven't yet. Kansas City. I like the Kansas City Chiefs at minus three. I'm hoping it'll get to two and a half. I have not bet that game yet. I've bet one game on Thanksgiving so far. Cincinnati plus seven at Baltimore.
- [22:34]
Simon Hunter
That's all I bet on Thanksgiving. People, you've already hear first. He is on all the favorites.
- [22:38]
Chad Millman
Oh, my God.
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Simon Hunter
That's my whole point, though. You just don't want to. I liked all the dogs coming in this. You don't want to take all the dogs. It's just historically a bad day to be backing dogs. And that's why I got to be careful here about this number and the seven, because then we both agree it feels like it's way too high and egregious. And historically, it's not a good spot to be fading Lamar, if it's basically this late in the season, it's this cold out. Lamar dominates these games at home, especially his big favorites. He dominates the Bengals in his career. I mean, let's go back the last six times they played. Joe Burrow is one in five against the spread against Lamar. He's just struggled against him. So to me, what I'm really banking on here is that Lamar is banged up. He's not as good as he perceives. And, you know, as bad as this Bengals defense is, we talked about, they showed us a little bit of something last week. They had a bunch of big stops now, yeah, we're not banking on to happen two weeks in a row, but we are banking on Joe Burrow as a big dog. And, you know, it's, it's rare you get Joe is this big of a dog, which again, should be alarms to us. That is this big of a number. But as three points or more, Joe Burrow 17, three against the spread, covering by almost five points per game in those matchups. So it's, it's a nice spot, nice matchup for Joe, historically. But I just have some pause here because it's, it's a big dog on Thanksgiving and historically, those just do not cover. So I, I really, before I put any more money into, I need to know. It's Joe Burrow. Honestly, I haven't bet the seven we talked about. It was seven and a half, eight. A lot of books were open. I took that. If it keeps going down, that would make me feel a lot better because we talked about. You want to be on the public side, the more money your side's on. Like right now, the Cowboys are the public side. Normally, I back off of that, but because it's Thanksgiving, that's a good thing. You want to be on the public side on Thanksgiving. So I, I like this number right now. It's every book you look at right now. It's 70 of the bets and the money right now are on this Bengals team. So it's, it's, it's, it's the public dog, right? It's, it's a nice spot for the Spangles team. I think everyone just does not trust this Ravens team right now.
- [24:37]
Chad Millman
Nothing to trust. They just haven't dominated even that game. When Lamar came back against the Dolphins in that first game, they won 26. It wasn't a dominant Lamar performance. He just hasn't gone full speed, full RPM because of the variety of injuries between the hamstring, the knee, the toe. He hasn't been practicing. You're getting Joe Burrow back. It's just a big number. It's a big number. Chicago at Philadelphia. The Eagles are challenged on offense. They've got injuries on the offensive line. They've got issues in the secondary. This line is so high, it makes me feel like somebody knows something and is making me nervous to bet the Bears, especially the fact that it moved from seven to six and a half. There's just something off about this.
- [25:29]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, this is my Simon says, but give me, give me the Eagles -6 and a half at Hard Rock.
- [25:34]
Chad Millman
Simon says. Presented by Hard Rock Bed.
- [25:38]
Simon Hunter
I want to Play a game, Simon says. And shockingly, I, I'm going against my model. My model has a game of five. So it, it's, it still thinks the Bears are the right side. I just, I told you, I, I, I just think this Bears team is bad and they've been playing against bad competition and winning games. But the Eagles might be bad as well. I think they're 25th now in offensive success rate. Like, they're not that good of a team either. I just think that best unit by far on this field is going to be that Eagles defense. And this is a great matchup for them at home against this Bears team that, you know, if you can't get the run game going, you're putting on Caleb Williams. That's, that's disaster. You do not want to be in that spot. I think that's what the Eagles are going to put him in here. And you know, it's a unique spot. This Bears team, you look at the record like you just said, you would never expect them to be a seven point dog when, you know, you could argue they're just as good as Eagles team, especially when you look how the season's played out. But it's, it's honestly a great spot for this Eagles team that, you know, most teams play divisional games and that's really physical and they struggle the following game. So, you know, since last year, teams coming off a divisional game, 135, 130 against the spread. So five game difference, that's nothing, right? No, the Eagles, they're 10, 0 against the spread, in the spot, covering by 10 points per game.
- [27:00]
Chad Millman
How many years?
- [27:02]
Simon Hunter
One, two years? Is that, is that too far back for you, Chad?
- [27:05]
Chad Millman
No, that's perfect.
- [27:06]
Simon Hunter
Okay. Yeah.
- [27:07]
Chad Millman
If it was like 10 years going back to the 1950s, I'd be like, I kind of don't buy it. But two years is plenty.
- [27:13]
Simon Hunter
I know you hate history. You would invade Russia. We know we lose the war in the winter. We've gone over this. But to me, I just, I, I'm trying to take my phantom out of it, how bad this Eagles team looked. And just look at straight numbers. It's like, okay, matchup wise, this is a great matchup with the Eagles team against a defense. Chad knows you guys had no linebackers. You have no, your secondary is totally banged up. They've lived off the turnovers. That's been the saving grace of the spares team anytime they need a short field turnover. The Seagulls team, that was the fluke of the fluke Last week, right, they had these stupid fumbles, these stupid turnovers that they usually don't make. They're just a team that has not turned the ball over. So you would expect to be a get right spot for this Eagles team and it's really about how numbers move. Like I talked about. If it was still seven, seven and a half, I probably would avoid it. But now that's come under. It's down to six and a half year. It could keep moving. I'm not gonna lie, people. You don't have to rush to bet this one. I'm just gonna grab it now in case professionals do come on the Eagle side because I, I love this spot and it's not shocking to see that, you know, this is the week everyone's just bearing the Eagles. I joked with you, I couldn't wait to listen to WIP on Sunday night because I just knew all these Eagles fans are gonna be losing their minds. It's, you know, one of the worst losses they've ever suffered. And you know, I think it's the first time since the 90s the Eagles have blown a 20 point lead in a game like that. So it couldn't be a lower spot. It feels like for this Eagles team that I think the market's overreacting. We've again, we faded them last week. The two weeks before that we were riding the Eagles team because the market reacting to this Eagles team. So it's, it's kind of a fun seesaw spot and we talk about time. Eagles are just a different team at home. Jalen hurts less 34 games. 30, 30 and 4 straight up at home. You know, this is going to be one of the more teased games this week. So I, I won't be shocked to see professionals coming in on this Bear side, but I, I do love it now that it's at six and a half for the Eagles team.
- [29:05]
Chad Millman
Listen, I, I'm looking for a reason to bet against the Bears. So I'm happy to go.
- [29:12]
Simon Hunter
I'm not, I want to be on the Bears. We talked about, they're just more fun to bet on. But I just, it feels like this. Numbers move too much. Like this probably should be seven and a half, eight. And now you're getting a six and a half. I just can't believe it's moved this much.
- [29:25]
Chad Millman
Houston at Indy. Indy is a four point favorite. You tagged this one on Sunday night as a game you were betting the Colts immediately it was at three and a half and you expected a lot of fandom to come in on the Texans because what they've done against the Bills and that it would move because the pros would like the Colts. And that's kind of what happened. We're seeing four. There's also four and a halfs. CJ Stroud is expected to play this weekend. From your point of view, this has to be a bet against CJ Stroud because Daniel Jones has definitely come back down to earth the past, say, three to four weeks and especially last week in that second half against the Chiefs. So the number that we're looking at at 4. Where do we stand right now?
- [30:20]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I'm not going to be the one defending Daniel Jones too much because like you said, it's. We knew he's gonna be inconsistent. It is Daniel Jones in the day, but he did, you know, these last three weeks were tough spots. Right. He was at Pittsburgh, total meltdown game by him. Then went across the. Across the pond to go play Atlanta, came back to face the Chiefs. Like, it has not been the easiest road for him right after that bye week. So you expect this to be the exact spot he gets, right, Against a Houston team that, what have they won, five straight? It feels like six straight. I mean, they won three straight with Davis. Mills came in. It's. It's been very bizarre how they turned it around. And. No, they did lose a Denver. That's right, because we were on that game. I remember now where we should have won that game a thousand ways, but CJ Got hurt and Houston lost that game.
- [31:06]
Chad Millman
That's right.
- [31:06]
Simon Hunter
But, you know, if. If you're telling me who has the best unit, we both agree it's the Texans. We know the deal. Texas defense, they're the best. But I just love this matchup for the Colts team inside with, you know, a running attack that can just change the game so many different ways. And we've seen Jonathan Taylor indoors, he's a different beast. You get him on that turf, that speed, it's been crazy this season. So, yeah, the number is shocking. I honestly, when I gave it out, I was like, okay, the pros will come in on it. I did not see him moving a point because like you said, I mean, Hard Rock's at four, but it's four and a half to a lot of books.
- [31:41]
Chad Millman
Yeah, that was shocking to me.
- [31:43]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it's. It's tempting. They're begging us now to come on the Texans, but, yeah, I'm going to hold firm. Like this match with this Colts team offensively, and we saw a little bit last week. I talked about it. I think the fact they got Ward back defensively, him and Sauce now is their one and two corners. That to me was a big deal. Like they did shut down that passing game for a long time in that Chiefs game. Eventually Mahomes, he did the Mahomes thing where he scrambles around in circles and eventually guys get open. Is CJ going to be doing that his first game back after a concussion? I don't know. I see him playing a little timid here, so I definitely like this number on this Colts team.
- [32:16]
Chad Millman
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- [37:46]
Chad Millman
Guess what, Simon? Yeah, it is time for Chad's Choice, presented by Hard rockbet.
- [37:57]
Simon Hunter
Are you sure you want to do this? Are you willing to make a choice?
- [38:00]
Chad Millman
A choice? We can't run from who we are.
- [38:04]
Simon Hunter
Sharp dudes can just see it, you know what I mean?
- [38:10]
Chad Millman
I'm going with the Cleveland Browns plus five and a half at home against the San Francisco 49ers. I feel like I dodged a bullet last night. I nearly pulled the trigger on the Panthers at plus seven and a half. Like you and I, we discussed it all week and like there was something we just couldn't quite get there on the Panthers, at least for purposes of the show. And I was so tempted. It was like I was still debating it up until about 6:30. And then I spoke to a buddy of mine, Mike Kearns actually who you know was at the Chernin group, recruited me to help help them all launch action and massive Niners fan and he walked me back on. The Panthers didn't go exactly as sort of the blowout that I think we had convinced ourselves it would be. San Francisco played fine. Brock Purdy, you know, three picks. The Panthers are really the reason why they didn't cover that game. The missed field goals, the picks from bright Bryce Young. But we now got the San Francisco 49ers on the road. This number has moved from six and a half. So I'm, I'm betting into a number that's moved. But at the end of the day, it's not about Dylan Gabriel being quarterback. It's not about Shadworth Sanders being quarterback. It's about the Browns at home as A dog with this defense that is going to be much more effective than anything they saw against the Panthers. We both like this on Sunday night when the Browns were six and a half. That's when I bet it. But I'm still betting into it at five and a half.
- [39:53]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, fortunately, I did. I did take the Panthers last I knew I was going to, but it was just as soon as I won that Rams game and had all that money, I was like, well, I can't just take this home with me. I got to put some of this on the Panthers. And like you said, those picks by Purdy felt pretty good. But, yeah, he did exactly what we worried about. Right. It was the game. After his historical best game of his career, he just totally melt down and played terrible for this game. I mean, I can't believe people are back in the 49ers here. I'm so happy to see this numbers come down, Chad, because, yes, it had gone up to six and a half, which I said it might. We talked a little bit Sunday night, but I was like, what pros are hammering this 49ers team on the road here? Like, this is. I don't feel like this is the right spot to be backing pie in this game. And, you know, as much as we want to fade Sanders after his big win and my God, like, him. Him talking in front of a mic, I get why this coach won't say his name in press conferences. He must just hate how cocky and arrogant this kid is for, you know, doing the bare minimum in this. Yeah, we have 11. 11 passes or 11 competitions in that game. So, you know, I. I love Sanders. I feel like the locker room loves them. The fan base seems to love him. So as much as negativity this coach has brought around it, it feels like everything. I've read the reports and seen stuff with the Cleveland team. They've really rallied around this kid. I believe they named the starter already for this game.
- [41:14]
Chad Millman
Yeah, they have.
- [41:15]
Simon Hunter
They did. So that. That part should be part. Why then I'm removed as well? Just because maybe most people have him graded now higher than Dylan Gabriel because at least he does do one thing very well, which you can't say for Gabriel, which is pushing the ball downfield. He does have a pretty good arm. So, yeah, this matchup, we've talked about it, we just don't. We don't trust this 49ers defense. We think they're suspect. Even against Carolina, Carolina felt like they were moving the ball pretty well. It was just the Bryce Young turnovers. That kept killing them. And you know, Canales, all of a sudden the most aggressive coach in the world is now playing cautious.
- [41:49]
Chad Millman
What the.
- [41:50]
Simon Hunter
I mean, seriously, like, it just. There's no rhyme or reason. I've complained about this with a lot of these coaches this year. It's like that one day they'll do one thing, the next day they feel a different way. It's like it doesn't feel like they're listening to any type of math. They're just going strictly off gut, which is not the right way to be. But yeah, for this game, Chad nailed it. Like, I. I love this Browns team. It's. It's unfortunate. Still not six. We talk all the time. It's such a key number. But you know, this game should be closer to four, three and a half. We're getting some free points here on a 49ers team that, you know, they finally did it. They covered a game after they had won a game. So now they're 2 and 15 after it went against the spread. I'm going to keep going after that trend and that feels like another good spot where we've talked we thought the number would catch up for this Browns team at home. Feels like the book still haven't caught up to it. Feels like we're still getting away with one here on this Browns team at home. Just how different they do play and really diving into it. The way this matchup is going to play out. You know Ken Purdy beat us. Sure, we know that that's going to work out. But you already know they're going to scheme up to take away Christian McCaffrey. I'm excited to see what this offense can do without him because even that Carolina game, I feel like every time they need a big play, it once again was McCaffrey getting that third down pickup. Once you put it on Purdy, I feel like he's going to struggle. So I love this matchup with you as well and this Browns team. And yeah, it's gonna be interesting what this number does in the morning. Will it. Will it keep dropping or will we get a pop back to 6? So people, if you want to rush and take it now just to be safe, you can. I think there is a world we get some professional money on the 49ers. We do maybe get back to six years so you can be a little patient with your money. It is Tuesday. I do think we get back to the six. But I would not be shocked if a ton of professional money came in and bet this one down. We just like we talked about, we just love this match with this Browns team. And you know, as much you want to say they're not playing for anything, that Miles Garrett going for that sack record, that's something that can motivate this team, I think carry them throughout this cold dark days of November, December here. So I think this is gonna be a highly motivated Browns team unlike Steve.
- [43:49]
Chad Millman
Also you think Shador Sanders is in plan to keep them from drafting Fernando Mendoza or Dante Moore or anybody else who is streaming up the draft charts right now? Of course he is.
- [44:01]
Simon Hunter
No. Even worse, have you seen the whole thing about how the Rams traded Atlantis pick? So the Rams have potentially gonna go to super bowl this year and get a top five quarterback in this upcoming draft. Just next level of drafting and GM work by Snead.
- [44:14]
Chad Millman
He's the best.
- [44:15]
Simon Hunter
He is. I mean he really is good how he had his moments but right now you gotta say Sneed's the best GM of football.
- [44:21]
Chad Millman
Yeah. The way he, he went all in, traded the picks, got the super bowl and now has rebuilt entirely off of draft picks. It's impressive. Totally impressive. All right, we're on the Browns. Good for us. Simon says with the Eagles. So we're narrowing things down top and bottom right there. Arizona, Tampa Bay. Tampa bay is a 2 1/2 point favorite. Majority of bets were coming in on Arizona largely because of the Baker news. And then Baker sort of there is news that he's potentially going to play and the news is better than they expected it to be on his injured left shoulder that knocked him out of the game against the Rams on Sunday night. Part of me feels a little bit better if it was Teddy Bridgewater. Did you know Teddy Bridgewater has been under.500 in his career against the spread during just one season in which he was the primary quarterback. That was 6 and 8 when he was the quarterback for the Broncos for 14 games in 2021 that year as a starter he went 5 and 9 even when he had a record of 5 and 10 with the Panthers, he went 8 and 7 against the spread. Teddy Bridgewater, we used to call him Teddy Covers because of how often he would cover when he was a starting quarterback. So you know, if, if everybody is going to be fading the bucks off of that bad loss, off of a streak of bad losses off of a Baker injury, I'll go ahead and fade the public here and lean into the bucks. But for some reason I don't want.
- [45:58]
Simon Hunter
To do if it's Baker, Teddy two gloves. Yeah. I love this, too, I was honestly thinking about make this Simon says, but it feels like cheating because I feel like no matter what, people should be betting this bucks. Two and a half right now. Hard rock to me. If it is Baker, you could see this number jump right back up to six. Six and a half. Like, this number could be moving because that means they're getting Baker back and Bucky Irving. That would be a huge, huge deal. And I'm with you. Like, I don't mind it being Teddy, but, you know, for them, for themselves to protect Baker probably would be the right move right home. Hold him out of this game. Get that shorter, right? Because I don't know if you watched how he injured it. He heard it throwing the ball like he had already heard it. He came back in the game.
- [46:41]
Chad Millman
Yeah, he. It looked like he heard it as he was throwing that long throw. Like he hurt the left shoulder when he was throwing with his right hand.
- [46:48]
Simon Hunter
And that's like, as someone that doesn't know anything about how to handle injuries or health, wouldn't that be the most alarming thing, that this guy is in so much grueling pain? Just throwing the ball is hurting his opposite shoulder. The torque of his body is hurting that much. So I don't think he plays. This feels like a Teddy number, right? They've moved it too much, in my opinion. Like you just said, Teddy's a covering machine. Has he lost a step? Clearly. I mean, that game, he looked totally lost. And people are giving a hard time. We've talked about it. It's really tough coming into games ice cold and never taking reps of the one, right. You're not. Mentally, you're not there, and you haven't had the reps either. So the fact that Bucky should be back this week with Godwin, I mean, we saw a little bit of Godwin last week, but he didn't really do much in that game. It was just everything went wrong for the Bucks in that game. So I feel like you're totally nailing this one, Chad. Like, I said I was gonna make it, Simon says, but I feel like it was a little bit of cheating. But two and a half. I. I really want people to grab that now. I just cannot see it getting any lower than this.
- [47:42]
Chad Millman
No such thing as cheating. That's just good betting, Simon.
- [47:45]
Simon Hunter
It's true. I would just feel terrible if we took it. And also, you know, an hour from now, Baker's out and the lines up to six again. It's like, well, the help just mean Chad. No one Else.
- [47:57]
Chad Millman
New Orleans at Miami. Big move from four and a half to six on this for the Dolphins. And now it's back down to five and a half. I kind of just want this to come back down because I want to bet the Dolphins I have done nothing in this game and don't have strong opinions on it.
- [48:12]
Simon Hunter
Yep, I'll throw Dolphins in a teaser. I'll keep it moving. Well, we don't have to waste people's time. This one. I. There's a world where of course the Saints can win this one. We all know Miami's a bad team, but we talk all the time. You have Miami at home, 1pm in the sun. I mean if they're wearing the whites, the Saints got to wear the blacks. I mean they're going to be cooked by the fourth quarter. So we always joke, we, we fade, we fade to in the right spots. This is the type of 2 a spot you back them. So we're both in the same boat. We don't, we don't really trust it. We don't want to bet too much into it, but it does feel like it's a, it's a good number here. Five and a half. Anything under six, I'll be on the Dolphins.
- [48:49]
Chad Millman
Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers the Carolina Panthers are 10 point home underdogs. And this started going up after the Rams dominant performance against the Bucks. Even you know, in that first half it was starting to move. It's interesting. It's the second week in a row where the bookmakers are showing us how much more they respect the NFC west than the NFC South. Right. Last week the Bucks go into Los Angeles to play the Rams six and a half seven point underdogs. The Panthers go, go into California, go into San Francisco and they play the Panthers, seven, seven and a half point underdogs. Now all of a sudden The Panthers are 10 point dogs to the Rams in Carolina. So are the bookmakers telling us that the Carolina Panthers, who are a.500 team, would be 16 point underdogs to the Rams in Los Angeles? Like this number is massive.
- [49:55]
Simon Hunter
Maybe like a 13 point dog is what they're saying. But I, I get where they're coming from. Like honestly, I'm betting this, this Carolina team. I know, I mean we both are going to bet them. Like we love this number. This feels like a great matchup in a spot for them to bounce back. And as great as that Rams team has looked, you could attack that Ram secondary. That's, that's really to me their biggest weakness defensively. Like there are guys in their secondary that are just young little green behind the ears and there's, there's ways to attack it. And coming off his worst performance, it's not shocking. Like who is going to be backing this Panther seem so I'm looking forward to hearing all the pros I talked to how they're feeling about this one. If they're just avoiding it, if they're, you know, like me, if really loving this Panthers team because, you know, if this was ten and a half at Hard Rock, this is another game where it's like I could have made this. Simon says, like that felt like way too big of an overreaction. This game. My model has had seven, so I'm getting three and a half points of value on this Panthers team. So really unique spot. And yeah, we've talked about this Rams team. It's different than teams of McVay's past back in the day, you know, not even back in the day just a year or two ago. McVeigh is no way covering this number. He does not play that way. He doesn't play to blow out teams.
- [51:06]
Chad Millman
Right.
- [51:06]
Simon Hunter
We've seen him a couple times, a couple of times this year play against bad teams and just keep the foot on the gas. I mean Tennessee one really jumps out where he just really leveled them in the second half. So you know the Seahawks game, he pulled back, he really didn't do much. That Tampa game, you feel like he pulled back a little bit. Once Baker was out of the game, that offense really didn't do much. So I'm hoping maybe he get he's back to his old ways, Chad of taking the foot off the gas and even if we're down 247 heading into the second half, we have a 10 or 10 and a half point spread here. We we are a touchdown away from covering. So I just feel like it's way too good of a number even. You know, he let us down last night, but they Panthers could have covered that number in so many different ways. They had the opportunity. So it feels like taking the Panthers here is the right spot. We need a lot of things to go against us, a lot of things to be unlucky about for us not to cover this number. So really, really inflated number on this Rams team, which again they should be. They're the odds on favorite right now. Yeah, odds on favorite. MVP favorite Stafford. Totally get what the books are doing here because this will be in every teaser, every parlay. I mean the Rams are going to be getting hammered here. No One thinks Panthers could pull off an upset. I'm gonna have a little money on this Panthers moneyline, Chad. This feels like a nice spot to take this team here to bounce back.
- [52:16]
Chad Millman
Well, look, I'm not gonna lie to you. I'm thinking about a Carolina Cleveland money line.
- [52:22]
Simon Hunter
That's gross. I love it. Yeah, that's gonna be a scene odds I'll look that up for.
- [52:27]
Chad Millman
Yeah, but. But when we were talking about the Browns, I was thinking this has money line written all over it.
- [52:34]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And you know that Browns game we've talked about a nauseum. It's just we're simply betting on the defense there, people. We're here as much crap I want to get Panthers defense. I think they showed up last night. We have a good team. The Panthers are not as bad as people keep making them out to be. They are up and down. I will give but this is like an egregious number. So those two to my lines together, Chad, basically 19 to 1. That's a nice payout.
- [53:02]
Chad Millman
The one thing that worries me about this Panthers team is look. JC Horn left the game last night puking potential concussion. One of their defensive backs had Juwan Jennings in the nuts. Who knows if he's going to be.
- [53:14]
Simon Hunter
Suspended or defensive backs. You're right. I didn't think about that.
- [53:18]
Chad Millman
So there are some concerns here in the backfield that make me a little bit anxious against Devonte Adams and Puka Nukua and, you know, eight different tight ends, you know, running across the middle. So there are some fears.
- [53:33]
Simon Hunter
That's true.
- [53:34]
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- [54:18]
Episode is brought to you by a scent that's made a legendary comeback degree. Original Cool Rush. The OG is back and better than ever. Cool Rush isn't just a scent. It's a movement fan favorite. It's the kind of fragrance that guys remember, ask for by name and rave about online. It's bold, fresh and delivers all day sweat protection with that cool crisp vibe that made it a legend. Whether you're heading to the gym, the office or just trying to stay fresh on a long day, Cool Rush has your back. It's the go to for millions and for good reason. So if you haven't tried it yet or if you've been waiting for a sign, this is it. Head to your local Walmart or Target and grab Degree Cool Rush, the fan favorite scent from the world's number one antiperspirant brand.
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Simon Hunter
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- [57:44]
Chad Millman
You know where there aren't fears. Simon the Atlanta Falcons at the New York jets the New York jets are currently two and a half point underdogs and the New York jets will be our brass balls bet of the week.
- [58:01]
Simon Hunter
You know what it takes.
- [58:02]
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- [58:06]
Chad Millman
We agreed on this one. From the get go, the jets were just in a street fight with the Ravens. But if you look at that game, they did hold their own. Like the, the, the, the drive charts in that game is so, they're so ugly. Punt, punt, punt downs, punt downs, punt, fumble, punt, interception. Like this was a closer game than the score would indicate. The public is going to come in on Atlanta. They're going to be all over Kirk Cousins because of what they did against the Saints.
- [58:41]
Simon Hunter
They.
- [58:43]
Chad Millman
It was hard not to be, I'm not going to say impressed with the jets against the Ravens, but they were competitive. More total yards, more passing yards, more yards per pet, yards per attempt. The team is just different with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback who is much more comfortable throwing down field and much more accurate. So I'm fine with the jets at two and a half. My only disappointment, I won't even say hesitation, is I could see this number getting to three and we can't give it out at three because it's two and a half today and that's when we're doing the show and we don't.
- [59:18]
Simon Hunter
Go to our board. Taylor, he's a covering machine but he did only score 10 points in that game. So I mean, Justin Fields, Taylor, we don't really care honestly. But I, I think we're both in agreement. This is really about kind of what we had last week where you know, I was able to get us off of it because I just, I respected the money coming out Atlanta, but it was just about the shock. I could, I just kept sitting there being like, damn, me and Chad are back in shuck as a favorite here. Like am I, are we lost in the woods here? It did feel like that way as soon as that game started, I don't think a stupid fumbler. Something happened. Wasn't even Chuck's fault, but it was just like, oh, man, this Saints. Yeah, this is one of those games. Everything's gonna go wrong for them. And it really did. And no props to Kirk. Kirk did play really well. Kirk is now a 2 1/2 point favorite on the road. That to me is right there. Should jump out to everybody. This is a huge mistake to be backing this Atlanta team where when you really break it down, okay, Kirk might be able to get his and move the ball here. The jets want to run the ball. Atlanta might have one of the worst run defenses in football. Honestly, like, they are so bad against the run. They got lucky last week. Kamara got banged out, got knocked out of that game really early on. And that kind of really moved the away from the run game of the Saints.
- [60:25]
Sponsor/Ad Voice
Right?
- [60:25]
Simon Hunter
They were like trying to run Taysom Hill and do stuff like that. It just was not clicking. Where. You know, Breece hall, he's been great all season and I love this matchup for him. So if Field's back, if it's Taylor, I like both of them. Obviously. My view of Taylor is he's a covering machine. You go through his data, I think he's now covered six straight games. He started and finished Taylor. So he's been great as a backup coming and covering games. And the public continues to undervalue him. So I do agree with you that part. It probably is a better thing to have Taylor. He's just more consistent and safer. But I also love the upside with with Fields in the run game against this, this Atlanta team, like their linebackers one on one with Fields, they will lose that battle every time. Same with Breeze Hall. Like, they just do not have the guys with the wheels to stand up against those two type of athletes. So yeah, we. We both love this one. Coming into it, our only hesitation is we'll just get the three. Like that was. The only thing we worried about is we don't want to give out you guys a bad line here, but I think the pros will be all over this one. I could easily see this game getting down to one and a half pick by kickoff come Sunday. So I love this one. I could easily see this being our contest come Sunday as well.
- [61:29]
Chad Millman
Maybe we're doing a Cleveland Carolina Jets Moneyline parlay. Maybe that's. Maybe we're just all over the money lines. My God, this week, let's just be gross. Let's get. Let's give thanks for the opportunity to bet Tyrod Taylor and Shador Sanders and Bryce Young. You're not wrong about the Saints last week. Like the Falcons, all the flowers for Kirk. Right. But. But the Saints had two missed field goals and turned the ball over on downs on the Falcons one yard line. So it's not like that game and it was ugly for us and it never felt like we were in it but we really weren't ever out of it until the very end when the Falcons got that game securing touchdown and ended up winning, you know, 24, six or whatever. But like that's a, that's a game that the public didn't really watch. They just see Kirk Cous coming back and winning by 18 points and all of a sudden they're two and a half point favorites on the road against the Jets. So that's a game we're definitely going to be betting for. Sure. Jacksonville, Tennessee. Tennessee is a six and a half point 100 up. Let's do ourselves a favor, let's skip it because we cannot get it right with this Titans team.
- [62:46]
Simon Hunter
No, but like our hate for Trevor Lawrence goes further than that. So we, we'll be with. I'm assuming you'll be on it with me. I'll be on Tennessee. But like Chad just said, God. Happy to avoid it. But yeah, I, I hate this Tennessee team so much. So we're backing on a Tennessee team here with the back door. But I also feel like it's a game Tennessee could win. I just can't get over how bad Trevor Lawrence is. Like I went back and re. Watched that Cards game so bad we didn't cover it. It's just so sickening to me. He is horrible. He is horrible. And in this matchup, you've seen those last couple weeks, Jeffrey Simmons coming in the run defense has improved so much for Tennessee since he's been back. So yeah, Tennessee is terrible. We hate him. But ain't no way I'm betting Jags a minus six and a half point favorite on the road. So like you said, I, I just. We'll avoid it. We'll have to discuss it again. Thank God for the rest of the week. But in my pick pools and everything like that, I will be on Tennessee.
- [63:39]
Chad Millman
Tennessee. Part of the moneyline parlay. Cam Ward, Shador Sanders, Bryce Young, Tyrod Taylor. We're putting them all in a moneyline parlay and we're going to give thanks for all these quarterbacks. I can, by the way, can't you?
- [63:54]
Simon Hunter
I can. No, it's. It makes sense it totally makes sense.
- [63:59]
Chad Millman
I actually don't know that I've had this much clarity on anything the entire season. I'm so ready.
- [64:06]
Simon Hunter
Even if we go two and two, that's a great hit.
- [64:09]
Chad Millman
I love watching how angry Liam Cohn gets on the sideline. Watching Trevor Lawrence, like, I feel like I know exactly what is in his head and he's trying to manage his frustrations with a child who does not learn any of the lessons that you try to teach them every single day.
- [64:35]
Simon Hunter
He just doesn't learn from his mistakes. It's so bizarre. It's like the number one thing with humans, the reason we've survived for 2 million years, however long we've been here, is we learn from our mistakes. You make a mistake and you do your best not to keep making that same mistake. His regression, like we've talked about, his regression has been alarming these last two, three years. It's just crazy. And we, we made excuses for him. We did. All of us did. We're like, well, it's the injuries, right? It's the coaching around him, all this stuff. And it's like this year you could be like, well, his number one, number two receivers are out. That could be part of it. Dude, these, these, these picks are egregious. Just horrible. Horrible reads and throws right to a defender's chest. Just no excuses. So I, like we've said, I, I don't want to keep going how much I am down on Trevor Lawrence. Everyone's down on them, but I think they have like three or four years left of all guaranteed like $40 million per year type of deal with the Jags. Just terrible, terrible decision paying this man all that money.
- [65:31]
Chad Millman
Listen, everyone's down on him, but I think we were down on him first. I can guarantee, like, we started talking.
- [65:38]
Simon Hunter
About that last year. We were both swarm off. Yes, you, you drank a little bit of Kool Aid. I will say you took them to win this division.
- [65:45]
Chad Millman
I think I did.
- [65:46]
Simon Hunter
A fair fact of you trusted the coach, not Trevor, though. So that's where I'll give you the grace of like, well, your read's not terrible. You trusted the coach. No one's trusting Trevor Lawrence. He is just a train wreck.
- [65:57]
Chad Millman
Total train wreck. It's going to be fun to see how they figure out what to do with him. Speaking of quarterbacking train wrecks, Simon, Minnesota at Seattle. Seattle is a 10 point favorite. The cumulative stats this week and the piling on about JJ McCarthy and how poorly he's playing has really become kind of mean spirited. Right. The. The. They're just piling up. One stat I saw noted that he would have had a better QB rating this past week against the packers if he had downed the ball on purpose every single time instead of what he actually did in the game. He is last in the league in just about every category. There are some stats going around about his historically bad start being putting him as sort of the worst quarterback start in a decade. And then he mysteriously popped up in the concussion protocol on Monday, which means that Max Brosmer, an undrafted free agent from Minnesota by way of New Hampshire, is going to be getting first team reps. I want to see if I can convince you at some point this week to bet on the Minnesota Vikings. Minnesota Vikings at plus 10. Plus 10 and a half against this Seattle team. Because this Vikings defense is exactly what gives Sam Darnold the biggest problems.
- [67:26]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, you're probably right. I'm probably missing on this game. I'm just. I. I honestly don't want to invest in this game either side. If I'm being honest, I might end up having some money on Seattle. Maybe I'll get there eventually, but this Vikings team could improve with this kid coming as a quarterback. But from everything I've seen and read, I don't know if it's gonna be that much better, buddy. Honestly, like, they just, they put themselves in such a horrible embarrassment.
- [67:50]
Chad Millman
They really have.
- [67:52]
Simon Hunter
You know, you let Daniel Jones, you let Sam Darnold walk out that door last year and I, I think me and you're on the same page where you know, you, you more. So you respect KOC way more than I do. I love him that you do. Where I am still like, this guy is good, but he is not this McVeigh Shanahan type that people make him out to be. I still put them a ring below. I put him in the Sirianni level where I have questions about this guy and some of the things he does this to me is on him, you know for a fact.
- [68:24]
Chad Millman
Yes.
- [68:24]
Simon Hunter
Coach of the year. Last year the ownership came to him and said, who do you want to pay Sam, or do you believe in jj? And he said, I believe in nine. Nine. And this guy, I mean, we had it. We had a guy on our show. He's a man Mitchell guy. I don't know if his name was Thor or something. He's a Twitter personality.
- [68:41]
Chad Millman
Yeah, yeah, he's great.
- [68:42]
Simon Hunter
He is. He's someone who's been all in on jj and I just. Every time this guy does something terrible, I think of him and where it's like, this is the hardest part about being a fan, where you have blind love and, you know, hope for your quarterback of the future. And I would love to know if even he has given up yet because to me, you like again, most times I'm going to give a guy a year or two to figure it out. Jj, like Chad says, been so historically bad, to me, he is deader than dead. He. If you look at his numbers compared to jamarcus Russell, yes, the biggest bust in all football history. He is worse per play than jamarcus Russell. A guy who did not watch tape. Didn't watch tape, that JJ's worse than him. So, you know, pros got sucked into it before the year. Professionals talked about like, you know, coming to the season, how much they love jj. This Vikings team was a sleeper team to them. You know, I think I even made a bet on JJ to win MVP, like 81, because I had some pros in my ears telling me I didn't know how good this kid's gonna be and how to. I gotta trust koc. Just an absolute trainer here, Chad. So I get what you're doing here. You're bank. You're not betting on the offense. You're betting on the Vikings defense. That practice, Sam Darnold, they know Sam Darnold's Tennessee. They should have an advantage here. I just, I, I think your read is right. You're buying low as well in this Viking team. I just can't get there. I mean, my God, that if you can't convert a third and five, how are you going to stay competitive in a game? So I don't know if I can trust a kid to convert third and fives against a Seattle defense that they're really good. They got, they didn't cover last week because they played, you know, a really shell defense cover too, to end that fourth quarter. And anytime Cam Ward needed to pick up a first down, he used his legs. That was to me, the reason that game switched. So if this Vikings kid that's coming in can use his legs and pick up first downs that way, there is a way for you to cover this number. So I don't hate the idea, Chad. I just. All the unknowns here. I can't back the Vikings with you here. But I, I do get your read. I like where you're coming from.
- [70:38]
Chad Millman
Listen, I don't know anything about Max Brosmer except what I read on Wikipedia that he went to New Hampshire and then went to Minnesota. I can't tell you all I can tell you is that Sam Darnold, when he's getting pressure, and we've seen it with the Rams, specifically once against the Vikings and once against the Seahawks. That's when he struggles the most. And they have been prone to turnovers this year and their running game hasn't been as good as they would like it to be. So it's very likely that the game could be put in Sam Darnold's hands. And I'm not saying he isn't a worthy quarterback who can win games for you and is going to put this team in a position to be a Super bowl contender again this year like he did with the Vikings last year. But that's just a huge, huge number against a quarterback who nobody has seen. Can they score 14 freaky points in the first quarter? Can it get hard for the Vikings to. For the Seahawks to get to 28 after that? Like, it could be a competitive game. And this Vikings defense is good. Like, it's not a bad defense. So yeah, like again, we.
- [71:54]
Simon Hunter
We forget it because there's more than three weeks ago but JJ went to Detroit and won 27, 24. Like, this is Vikings team can right at the win games with despite having nothing at quarterback. But man, it is. You need a lot of things to go your way.
- [72:07]
Chad Millman
It is weird for jj. I don't know how he comes back from all this, you know, and who knows if he's in the concussion protocol because they're like, we got to find a way to get this guy off the field. Like, he's struggling right now and he might not be able to come back from this. I started having visions of, oh my God, is this a Trey Lance, Brock Purdy situation? Like if Max Brosmer comes in and he's amazing for the next two weeks, all of a sudden is JJ McCarthy on the outs.
- [72:38]
Simon Hunter
This ends. It's going to be JJ versus our guy Mac Jones next August in camp.
- [72:44]
Chad Millman
Oh, yeah.
- [72:45]
Simon Hunter
They're gonna bring in. They're gonna bring in someone like, exactly like that and see if JJ can't beat him out. Give that guy the job. I just, I mean, we're. We're upset about. I can't imagine the front office in KOC right now just staring in the mirror being like, we had. We had the guy. We let him go for this. Like, yeah. Train wreck.
- [73:03]
Chad Millman
Interesting. Max Mac Jones. That's interesting. Las Vegas at the Los Angeles Charges. The Chargers are nine and a half point favorites. Chip Kelly, he is out. Doesn't make a difference. I don't know Do I want to bet this game? No, thanks.
- [73:20]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, same, I like I, I want to be on the, I want to be on the Raiders but I'm not going to force it and there's tens out there if you want to grab it. But yeah, this is not going to be even close to one of my top 10 bets this week. It's just happy to avoid this one and just not watch a second of it.
- [73:35]
Chad Millman
Buffalo at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh is a three and a half point underdog right now. I'm just trying to figure out what the Steelers are good at. Their defense is kind of suspect. Their passing game is inconsistent. There are people in Pittsburgh who are losing it. About Mike Tomlin right now wondering if he is past his prime. Both teams need this game desperately for any kind of playoff positioning. I want to bet the Steelers because they're home dogs of more than a field goal and this is kind of when you got to do it. But I don't want to bet the Steelers.
- [74:18]
Simon Hunter
No, it's a game that we have to bet. Chad, you just said it though. It's. You're getting an undervalued Steelers team against a Billstream. That's still to me being overvalued by the public like that. That defense they have some weeks where they do show up like that Chiefs game, I feel like they showed up and they were playing fast and hard and they were good against the run. And then you see a game like they had last week where it's like they can't stop anybody. And Josh Allen struggling as well. Like they made Houston and Davis Mills look like a legit contender like they were looked like they were the better team in this Bills team. So I honestly wanted to be on the Bills. I was like, okay, this will be a nice bounce back spot. Maybe we'll get the Bills minus one and a half, minus two and a half favorite. They opened it like three and a half four to a lot of books. So you know, pretty shocking they opened the number where they did. It's a ton of respect to just how great Josh Allen is, but he's just been all inconsistent all year and losing games he shouldn't lose all year. And it's like, it's just like the Chiefs and we talk about that's why this year has been so fun. It's not the same old teams we're used to because we talk all the time. If you don't draft well, it eventually catches up in this Bills team. They've organizationally not that they've wasted Josh John's career, but they've never addressed the defense. They never went out and got him the number one. I mean Coleman, you know, we took a ton of. Because I was talking about Steven, Steven. Steven Smith said he wasn't a starting receiver in this league. You know, this is what, two weeks they've sat him now because he's so immature and they can't trust him to block and do things they need him to do consistently downfield. And I, like I said, I want to be on the Spills team, but something just feels off. They had that horrible loss to Atlanta. You know, they had the bye week, they bounced back, right. They dominated the Panthers, they beat the Chiefs huge win. But then they dropped that embarrassing game to the Miami and then they come back and have a huge dominant win again against Tampa that we talked about Tampa, if they didn't go three and out, probably should have covered, kept that game on much closer. Just Josh Allen hit that next level in the fourth quarter the week, the following week. Josh Allen couldn't do what he had done the week before, right. He couldn't be that hero in the fourth quarter. So this feels like another number where the books are saying he's going to cover you. He's going to get that late cover. And the public is drinking it. They're coming in so heavy on the Spills team. This is the exact spot we do back Tomlin in the Steelers team. And like you said, we don't trust them. Their defense seems off. I do think Josh Allen could get his but I think offensively with Gainwell and hopefully DK is healthy in this matchup, I think they'll be able to move the ball. The Steelers team, even if it is Mason Rudolph who you know can't throw the ball more than 20 yards downfield or doesn't have the confidence to do it, he still moved the ball semi against that Bears team in different ways where they schemed it up to get guys open. So it's, it's not a game I'm banging on the table right now. Maybe come Sunday morning I'll be more confident just because I know it's Rodgers and not Mason Rudolph. But it feels like we're just back in the number here in Tomlin. We're trusting a spot with Tomlin here at three and a half and fading a Bills team that just doesn't feel like to me they deserve to have a three and a half hook. They just, they're so bad. They're just been so bad defensive this year and they've just asking Josh Allen to do so much with no name receivers. I mean I, I just can't get over the fact they failed him like this. Like how do you not go get him a number one? It's just. It's malpractice. It really is. Like you're just wasting years of what we keep. Every year we talk about he's a top two, top three, number one quarterback in this league and it just feels that they're wasting it. They're just wasting it. So I'm. People can hear my voice. I don't want to be on the Steelers team but it feels like I have to. I have to take this number here and fade the public and all their love on the spills team. It's just way too much number and I'm looking now. Chad. There were fours when we started the show. They've all come down. There's. There's 14 out there still in my area. But most books are moving back to three and a half. So some early professional money here on the Steelers side.
- [78:08]
Chad Millman
All right. Wouldn't have been great if Miles Garrett and Josh Allen could have been on the same team. The all wasted talent team with Josh Allen and Miles Garrett. We should have figured that one out. Let's talk about the prime time games. Our prime time spotlight. We all know people are going to figure out a way to bet them. First one up Denver six and a half point favorite at the Washington Commanders. Tricky one to really handicap on a Tuesday of Thanksgiving week five, six days before the game because we just don't know about Jaden Daniels and there's rumors that he might be able to play. He's inching back, being a little bit more healthy. We don't know for sure. Hard to honestly. It's just hard to have an opinion on this game right now.
- [78:53]
Simon Hunter
That's fair. I'll be on Washington. But it is hard to have an opinion on it. Obviously Washington's biggest weaknesses, by far their defense, they're just terrible. You think Sean Payton, but just have a field day here. Like this is such a dream match for him scheme wise. So many ways to attack this defense if he chooses to and you know, if it's Daniels, that's why I'm bending now. If it is Daniels, I could see it move another two or three points. It could come down a little bit more. So I'll. I'll back Washington early here but like Chad said, I'm in no rush to bet this one.
- [79:21]
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- [79:28]
Chad Millman
The New York Giants resurgent, competitive for two weeks in a row with Jameis Winston. New York Giants took the packers down to the wire, took the Lions into overtime, lost both games dramatically. Now they're visiting the New England Patriots. They are seven and a half point underdogs Monday Night Football. We don't know at this point if it's going to be Jameis or Jackson Dart. My feeling is it's going to be Jackson Dart. He did practice last week. He traveled with the team. That indicates to me that he's probably going to be ready to go. I think the real issue here, Simon, is who's playing on the left side of the offensive line for the New England Patriots because they had players just being carted off on Sunday in that game that they barely covered against the Bengals. So I know where I'm gonna lean in this game. Do you want to say it? Do you want me to say it? Do we want to be disgusting together? Do you want to say it? On the count of three. One, two, three. Giants.
- [80:30]
Simon Hunter
Giants. Giants. Giants. Giants.
- [80:32]
Chad Millman
You weren't with me on that. We weren't coordinated.
- [80:36]
Simon Hunter
Well, zoom. It sinks us out. I thought if we say at the same time. But yeah, I love the Giants as well. We. We talked before the show. We almost. I almost made it. My assignment says you almost made a Chad's choice. It's really about this defensive line for the Giants against. What we are pursuing now is going to be their backup left tackle and their backup left guard, which is a huge deal. That was honestly their biggest strength. I felt like when I was really looking at the run scheme board, a lot of their big runs and gains are to that side. And pass blocking wise, same thing. It's a side where they can leave one on one matchups where they usually chip to the right side either with a tight end or the running back. Now what are they going to do? Right? They're going to do. Are they going to do more 12 personnel to try to protect Remy because this is a terrible match for them. Right? They have two different guys on the defensive line of the Giants that make and use athleticism against him. Right? Burns will be able to catch him. Carter will be able to catch them like they're. They're just as. Just as fast as him. So this nine at Hard Rock in Jersey is already down to seven. So since we started the show, this line has moved. A couple other sevens popping up, people. If you hear this, go grab it. Go grab this Giants team. I. I think this will Keep coming down. If dark gets cleared. I could see this going below 6. Like that's how big of an upgrade he is offensively. As much as we love Winston, the running aspect with Dart is a game changer. Right. The way they can use his legs, you see with Kafka give him tons of credit. He's really schemed up a great offense here these last couple weeks since he's taken over. Right. Like, they just feel like they're always kind of keeping teams on their toes and throwing them off fence. So, you know, as much as I want to be scared off on this one because like we're buying high on Jamis, it's really not appearing that way. Like a money is from the public coming in on this Patriots team. They're still believing this Patriots team, where I think me and you are in agreements. They're overlooking how big of a deal it is losing two key starters, offensive line with a young quarterback here. So, you know, really fun game. I could see us end up getting it as one of our five, especially come Sunday if we know it's Dart and we do get a seven and a half in contest. I just love this number. So much. So, yeah, hopefully people hear this to the Bill's public books. I know Hard Rock's gone, but two very public books still have seven and a half's out there. So I hope people can get that before it goes away.
- [82:43]
Chad Millman
Right now we are looking at Philadelphia -6 and a half for Sunday morning conversation. Don't forget Simon says is Philadelphia. I think, I think I should say.
- [82:55]
Simon Hunter
From the top channel. I'm gonna cut you off. We'll tweet out if anything on Thursday, if Wednesday, tomorrow Chad reaches out to me or I reach out to him. We. We say we really like Line and we will put in the contest. Maybe since he gets in there because if it is Joe Burrow and Lamar's in practice all week and we're getting seven and a half or six and a half, I don't know about you, Chad. I'll be very tempted to take Cincy. And same goes the Cowboys. Cowboys three and a half. I'll be very tempted to take that as well. So I will, I promise, post anything. No shady business. We will let people know hopefully 24 hours before ahead of time if we do settle on a Thursday game.
- [83:28]
Chad Millman
We are a transparent literate podcast. That's what we do. We Talked about Indie minus 4. I don't know if we'll get there on that.
- [83:36]
Simon Hunter
No, it could be too much.
- [83:38]
Chad Millman
Cleveland plus five and a half was Chad's choice. I think we love it. We're going to play that on the money line as well. Bucks minus two and a half is definitely going to be in the conversation. Carolina plus 10. It's going to be hard not to have that in the conversation. The New York jets plus two and a half. That is brass balls. That will 100% be in the conversation. Pittsburgh plus three and a half maybe and the New York Football Giants plus seven and a half. Go and grab it. We know we'll want to have that in the conversation. Don't forget we will be back on Sunday. Not Thursday Sunday when we'll go over the Moneyline parlays we're doing for favorites and dogs. We'll do our rocking a hard place bet of the week. We'll do the biggest bets. We'll do an abbreviated sharp calls just so we can get it all out of our system. Also, we will be bringing the contest back. It's going to start week 14. If you want to sign up right now, go do it. It's going to be a free pick them contest that will run until the end of the football season including the playoffs. We're going to get nine weeks five bets a week against the spread. As we get into the playoffs, we'll adjust and figure out what the other bets are going to be. We're all going to be betting from the same lines, are going to compete against me and Simon for fantastic prizes from our sponsors at Hard Rock Bet. We're super excited to bring it back. Sharp or square.thevolume.com is the website. We'll have all the details as well on next Tuesday's show. Watch or listen to us on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like the video. Subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods rate Review. Subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback as a gift. Until next time. Love you.
- [85:38]
Simon Hunter
It's nice to get together with the families. But in a time when it seems fashionable to be critical of those things, things we don't have, and to be angry at everything, it might be nice to step back and look at the things that we do have, the good things we share in life, and to be thankful for just a moment for those. Nicely said.
- [85:56]
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- [86:37]
Simon Hunter
NMLS 910457.
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Simon Hunter
Uh, Limu is that guy with the binoculars watching us.
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Simon Hunter
Liberty Mutual Insurance Company and affiliates excludes.
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- [87:44]
This podcast is sponsored by Total Wireless, the official wireless partner of ufc. When you're streaming the fight or sharing those takedown highlights, you need a wireless provider that keeps you close to the action. With Total Wireless, you're covered by the Verizon 5G network, so you don't have to worry about your connection being knocked out at the biggest moments. It's not something you can usually say about a wireless provider, but Total Wireless really does have your back. They're in your corner every second of the day, so you never miss a thing. Visit totalwireless.com or visit your local Total Wireless store to learn more about how Total Wireless can be in your corner. 5G access requires a 5G capable device and a 5G service area. Additional terms apply. See website for details.
- [88:35]
Chad Millman
If you're a maintenance supervisor at a.
- [88:36]
Simon Hunter
Manufacturing facility and your machinery isn't working.
- [88:39]
Chad Millman
Right, Grainger knows you need to understand.
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Simon Hunter
What'S wrong as soon as possible.
- [88:43]
Chad Millman
So when a conveyor motor falters, Grainger offers diagnostic tools like calibration kits and multimeters to help you identify and fix the problem. With Grainger, you can be confident you.
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Simon Hunter
Have everything you need to keep your facility running smoothly. Call 1-800-granger.
- [88:58]
Chad Millman
Click granger.com or just stop by Granger.
- [89:01]
Simon Hunter
For the ones who get it done, this is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.