Sharp or Square – NFL Week 13 Reactions: Detailed Episode Summary

Podcast: Sharp or Square
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Episode Date: Dec 1, 2025

Episode Overview

In this lively post-Thanksgiving episode, betting expert Chad Millman and pro gambler Simon Hunter break down NFL Week 13's wildest games, huge surprises, and betting outcomes. The show dives into the performances and storylines around the Bills-Steelers, Falcons-Jets, Rams-Panthers, 49ers-Browns, Texans-Colts, and more—offering sharp betting analysis and candid reactions to outcomes good, bad, and painful. The duo banters about strategy, coaching decisions, heartbreaks, and the ever-tumultuous world of NFL betting.

Main Discussion Points & Insights

1. Betting Recap and Emotional Week

• Opening Vibes ([03:09–06:28]):
  • Chad relishes in the unforeseen success of his beloved Bears and Indiana Hoosiers, acknowledging the surreal, unexpected “destiny-control” both teams possess in December.
  • “He turned himself that night, that night when he took off his shirt so the entire city could get free hot dogs. I think he made himself a hero for the rest of his life in that town.” – Chad, about Bears coach Ben Johnson’s viral moment. ([05:05])

2. Texans-Colts: Injury News & Last-Minute Pivot

• Analysis Shift ([08:08–12:12]):
  • The hosts admit the Texans (+4.5) were a late entry, originally leaning Colts before injury news.
  • Chad reiterates that Houston’s red zone offense is a problem: “They are just dreadful in the red zone. There’s no creativity, there’s no misdirection.” ([10:58])
  • Simon mentions C.J. Stroud's up-and-down performance, struggling to regain rookie-year explosiveness. The defense, not offense, is winning games for Houston.

3. 49ers-Browns: Special Teams Catastrophe

• The Role of Field Position ([12:23–18:36]):
  • Chad breaks down how nearly all Niners’ scoring drives started in Browns territory due to special teams miscues. “How are the Browns, who were awesome, supposed to be defending that? They can’t do it.” ([12:45])
  • Simon points out the critical “out-of-bounds” special teams mistake, showing how the Niners capitalized on short fields: “That’s what they do as a team. They wear you out. And that’s what happened this game.” ([15:58])
  • Banter on Jauan Jennings’ attitude and recurring conflicts with opposing teams.

4. Falcons-Jets: Ugly Win, Coaching Decisions

• Brass Balls, Ugly Covers ([18:36–23:45]):
  • The Jets (+2.5) manage a miraculous, ugly win. Tyrod Taylor is called out as the reason to take Jets, who pulled off late-game heroics.
  • Simon analyzes the late-game scenarios, coaches’ decisions to (not) go for two: “He’s been told, I am for sure, that he needs to go for two in those exact spots...I’m playing for my own job.” ([20:00])
  • Chad: “They just didn’t have anyone.” – commenting on Atlanta’s lack of playmakers without Drake London. ([21:02])
  • Both acknowledge new depths of Jets/Falcons misery, yet agree you have to trust ugly underdogs: “These stupid games, you just gotta trust these ugly dogs sometimes.” – Simon ([19:16])

5. Bills-Steelers: Running Over the Past

• Steelers’ Defensive Weakness Exposed ([24:03–29:47]):
  • Chad and Simon lament Pittsburgh (+3.5) falling apart in the second half after a promising start.
  • Cam Hayward vs Josh Allen; game becomes “chippy.”
  • Simon: “We know Pittsburgh’s a shitty team, but you saw that first half — that’s how they win and steal these games, right?” ([25:05])
  • Bills win by rushing, not Allen’s arm. “Most rushing yards against a Steelers team at home in 50 years.” – Chad ([27:14])
  • “It’s a bad Bills defense. This is not a great Bills defense. So that’s the most alarming part of it.” – Simon ([29:13])

6. Viewer Questions & AFC Futures

• Should You Quit Betting the Steelers? ([35:09–36:37]):
  • Chad feels the “Mike Tomlin magic” is gone: “I feel like we’ve got to jump off this bandwagon here.”
  • Simon: “Contest-wise, if we can avoid them rest of the year, I’d be very happy.” ([35:48])
• AFC Possibilities Outside the Old Guard ([37:13–39:47]):
  • Both agree the Broncos are intriguing due to their defense and Sean Payton’s coaching, but worry about Bo Nix’s reliability.
  • Possible trust in the Texans, but offensive play-calling is a concern.

7. Seahawks-Vikings: Rookie QB Pains & Defensive Dominance

([41:00–44:25])

• Simon refuses to bet on a game led by a third-string rookie, Max Brosmer, for the Vikings; Chad stands by the defensive logic of betting Minnesota but acknowledges “total zero” quarterback play dooms any chance.
• “This is not a kid that has been playing SEC football his whole life, man.” – Simon ([42:00])

8. Panthers-Rams: Big Home Dog Wins

• Shame on Us for Doubting the Panthers ([44:25–49:50]):
  • Chad and Simon both kick themselves for bailing on the Panthers (+10.5), who upset the Rams. “Did not go back to it. It’s like we looked for an excuse not to bet on the Carolina Panthers as ten and a half point home dogs…” – Chad ([49:28])
  • Bryce Young’s clutch gene: “Most comeback wins to start his career… The thing you can’t coach or teach is that clutchness, that ice in your veins.” – Simon ([45:43])
  • Panthers’ schedule and playoff vision discussed.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On Coach Ben Johnson (Bears)

“He turned himself that night… into a hero for the rest of his life in that town…He understands who he’s coaching for, not just the team and the players, but for the city itself.”
— Chad Millman, 05:05

On the Browns’ Special Teams Collapses

“They had one scoring drive of the five where… it was I think 37 seconds left in the first half and they drove down the field to the four yard line on a miracle one-handed catch by Kittle… Everything else was on a short field.”
— Chad Millman, 12:45

On Late Betting Regrets

“It’s like we looked for an excuse not to bet on the Carolina Panthers as ten and a half point home dogs when we have almost bet on the Panthers…in every single scenario for the past seven years…”
— Chad Millman, 49:28

On Trusting Ugly Underdogs

“These stupid games, you just gotta trust these ugly dogs sometimes.”
— Simon Hunter, 19:16

On Bills Running Over Steelers

“Most rushing yards against a Steelers team at home in 50 years. The last time it happened…Buffalo Bills against the Steelers 50 years ago.”
— Chad Millman, 27:14

Important Segment Timestamps

• Texans-Colts Line Movement and Breakdown – 08:08–12:12
• 49ers-Browns: Field Position & Special Teams – 12:23–18:36
• Falcons-Jets: Ugly Dog, Tyrod Taylor Heroics – 18:36–23:45
• Bills-Steelers: First Half Hope, Second Half Collapse – 24:03–29:47
• Steelers Betting Fatigue & AFC Futures – 35:09–39:47
• Vikings-Seahawks: Rookie-QB Despair – 41:00–44:25
• Panthers-Rams: Home Dog Upset & Betting Regret – 44:25–49:50
• Shame/Heroes of the Week, Betting Self-Awareness – 47:49–53:41

"Shame On You" & "Hero of the Week"

• Shame:

  • Chad & Simon shame themselves for abandoning their beloved Panthers as big underdogs, despite always betting them in that role ([49:28]).
  • Simon also rails against NFL referees ruining games and fueling betting conspiracy talk over Thanksgiving ([49:50]).

• Heroes:

  • Tyrod Taylor earns Chad’s “Hero of the Week” for late-game heroics, keeping Jets’ bets alive; Simon calls Taylor the new “Teddy Bridgewater of covering” ([53:41]).

Early Week 14 Leans & Betting Strategy

([57:03–60:55])

• Early interest in the Jets as underdogs again.
• Simon eyes the Chiefs (-4/-4.5 vs Houston) as the public might finally fade Kansas City, and Colts as a potential value side if injury news is favorable.

Episode Tone

The show is quick-witted, honest, and self-deprecating, blending sharp analytics with downtrodden laughs over bad beats and betting blunders. Both hosts bring a blend of stats, emotion, and locker room insight, always talking to the audience, not at them.

Summary Takeaways

• Sharp money moves require flexibility—injury news and late-week movement matter.
• Ugly dogs often deliver the gritty covers and outright surprises.
• Special teams and field position can define game scripts far more than box score analysis.
• Self-awareness in betting (and being willing to shame yourself) is a critical skill.
• The AFC playoff picture is wide open beyond the usual powerhouses, with defenses suddenly carrying as much weight as quarterbacks.

“We’re heroes. We are self-aware. We don’t have egos, Chad.”
— Simon Hunter, 52:59

For serious bettors and fans, this episode is a deep-dive into reading the “why” behind box scores, the volatility of NFL Sundays, and the self-reflection every bettor needs after a wild slate.