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Chad Millman (3:02)

Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rock bet. We are part of the Voluum Podcast network. This is the show that makes the square sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined as I am for every episode. Bye. Bye. Bff. My companion, Mike and Padre professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.

Simon Hunter (3:28)

Chad. How we doing, dude?

Chad Millman (3:31)

I feel pretty good. I feel pretty good. Even with last night, losing the Giants game. We went on the Giants for the last game in our final five because we truly believed the luck would turn. It did not turn. It did not turn at all. In fact, it might have gotten worse. You give up a long kick return to start the game. You give up a pump return for a touchdown. You have a kicker who has everybody simultaneously watching that game saying, never seen that before because he kicks the ground and never makes it to the ball. You've got first downs being called back because the other the Giants can't stop fighting with the Patriots. It was just a train wreck. Yet you bet the seven because you're never really out of it. And even when they were down 30 to 15 in the second half, you're like, we still got a shot. It never really worked out for us.

Simon Hunter (4:28)

Yeah. Hopefully last week was just a bad week for us with special teams. This week it's a little better because it feels like we had two different games where.

Chad Millman (4:35)

Yeah.

Simon Hunter (4:36)

And I can't really blame the offensive defense in that game as much as you really want to just blame really, really poor special teams play. So that Giants game, just absolutely brutal how bad that special teams was in that game and dart taking hits again. I know it's gonna be a big talking point this whole week. But you see the talent. I think we all see the talent.

Chad Millman (4:54)

Oh, yeah.

Simon Hunter (4:55)

My God. If this. If this kid could figure it out just to live for the next down. I mean, it's just he's so reckless with. Everywhere he plays. In his interviews, he says things. You're just like, man, you sound like a dumb, naive kid. Like, I get what he's saying. Like, he is a tough guy. He plays tough. This isn't. No one cares how tough you are. They just want you to last. Like, I wish Eli Manning could just explain to him it's like I wasn't the best quarterback ever, but I played every game. I never missed the game. And that was one of my greatest strengths. So dart tons of talent, but man, those hits he was taking that first quarter, I don't know about you, but it was scaring the hell out of me.

Chad Millman (5:30)

Scaring the hell out of everybody. I mean, he looked, you know, like he said, what do you say? This isn't golf or whatever. Soccer. Yeah, listen, we went 2 and 3 with the contest or with the five favorite picks from Sunday morning. We won with the jets. We won with the Texans. We lost with the Browns, the Steelers and the Giants. You bet those three teams. You get what you deserve. Simon. For the year we are 36 and 29 through 13 weeks. It's our Tuesday show. We we will review the entire slate. You can check out the Sunday AM show if you want. The games. That will be our official five after we've had a chance to review everything. Don't forget you can get the shows on Sharper Square at YouTube. Also download from Spotify, Apple pods, wherever you get your pods. Good news, folks. The contest that we have talked about, that we have promised that we have hoped we could all deliver on, meaning me, Simon, Matt, Mitch. So everybody could be playing the same lines. You are able to sign up right now. So many people got blown out of their survivor pools on Thanksgiving Thursday with the Ravens, the Lions, the Chiefs and the and the Eagles on Friday all losing. This is a great way to re engage. Consider this your second chance to be in some kind of contest for the rest of the NFL season. Go sign up right now. Make your picks. It's live, it's open. Sharp or square.the volume.com Again, go sign up right now. Sharp or square.thevolume.com here's producer Matt with all of the details. All right, Matt Mitchell always dressed appropriately. We have been getting a ton of questions about the that we have been able to officially announce has launched. People can go sign up. Can you please tell everybody how they can do that?

Matt Mitchell (7:39)

Yes. Very excited that the contest is officially live. You can just go to sharp or square.the volume.com to sign up for this totally free contest and you can make your Week 14 picks right away. It'll be the same website and your same login throughout the entire contest.

Chad Millman (7:59)

How long, Matt? Totally free contest. How long will this totally free contest run?

Matt Mitchell (8:06)

Okay, so it starts this week, which is week 14 and it'll run this time through Super Bowl Sunday. So that's nine total contest weeks. But you've got to hurry up and sign up because registration for this free Contest closes at 1pm Eastern Kickoff this Sunday, December 7th.

Chad Millman (8:27)

Totally free contest in which people are going to win prizes and compete against me and Simon. Matt, tell everyone how the contest works.

Matt Mitchell (8:35)

It couldn't be easier. You just select five games against the spread each week along with one tiebreaker question. And once we hit the middle of the playoffs and the slates get smaller, we may include some totals and a player proper to just to beef it up. But for right now it's just five games against the spread and during the regular season. Deadline to submit your picks will be 1pm Eastern on Sundays and you can always see where you stand with everybody else using the leaderboard function which is also at sharp or square.the volume.com the.

Chad Millman (9:12)

Most important question Matt, as we have been getting comments on this all year long, will these lines that we are all playing together against each other in good fun, will these lines move?

Matt Mitchell (9:30)

Yes, the lines in this contest, the Sharper Square Pro Football pick' Em contest, are dynamic as they've been the last two seasons, so they'll move with the market throughout the week. But be advised, these are still contest lines so they'll always end in half points to avoid ties. All picks must win or lose. So yes, the contest lines will move.

Chad Millman (9:53)

Dynamic lines. How or what actually are people going to win? What is the grand prize?

Matt Mitchell (10:00)

Okay, so grand prize, the contest winner and a guest will be flown to warm, wonderful South Florida where they will enjoy a complimentary two night stay at the beautiful Seminole Hard Rock Hotel and Casino along with tickets to the Memphis Grizzlies versus Miami Heat game on February 21st.

Chad Millman (10:21)

That is going to be a barn burner. Very important. Can people change their picks during the week? Yes.

Matt Mitchell (10:31)

If you want to make any changes to your picks, you just need to cancel your entry and make all five picks again. @ the bottom of your finished entry there's a little button that says cancel and play again. You click that, it cancels your entry. You make your picks again at the current contest lines. Easy.

Chad Millman (10:49)

Peasy. Is there a.

Matt Mitchell (10:50)

Tiebreaker? Yes. So this contest is only nine weeks long, so the tiebreaker is going to be really important as it has traditionally been. It will be total passing yards in a selected game, typically Monday Night Football. In the event of a tie at the end of this contest, the winner will be decided by the lowest tiebreaker differential. So when you submit your picks, do not Forget to put in your tiebreaker answer.

Chad Millman (11:15)

Matt? Will all of the games be included as available contest.

Matt Mitchell (11:22)

Picks? So we do not include Thursday Night Football in the contest? We never have, probably because those games are an abomination. But generally speaking, all other games.

Chad Millman (11:32)

Will be available to choose who can play in this contest.

Matt Mitchell (11:36)

Matt. Okay, you just need to be 21 years or older as of today and located in the United States. So sorry, Canadians and Brits and all our international listeners. The only US states that are excluded are Rhode island and Washington.

Chad Millman (11:53)

State. Tell me.

Matt Mitchell (11:54)

Why. They have tricky rules about free to play games. So like if you live in Newport or Seattle or whatever, call your congressman. I don't ask me. I have no idea. But I wish you the best of luck.

Chad Millman (12:05)

Anyway. All right, well, listen, thank you, Matt for the FAQs, thank you for all the work getting the contest ready to roll. Thank you to our sponsors at Hard Rock Bet for working through the entire challenging regulatory process with us so we could bring this to you guys. Better late than never. Go sign up for the contest. It is open and ready to roll right now. Everything's live. We're all playing it together. These are going to be the lines that Simon and I refer to and the games that Simon and I refer to for the rest of the year. No more stale lines. All dynamic. We're all in it together. Let's kick things off, Simon. Thursday Night Football, Dallas at Detroit. Detroit is now a three point favorite. It's come down from three and a half, obviously two teams that had wildly different experiences on Thanksgiving with the Lions not able to get over the top against the Packers. They, the Cowboys just completely having their way with the Chiefs. Expectations changing for both of these teams dramatically. I got thoughts on this one, but I want to get your.

Simon Hunter (13:10)

Take. Yeah, it feels like we're supposed to just be hammering Detroit here. I mean, this is the Detroit line. This is a Detroit game. But the more you stare at it, like you just said, it's two teams going in totally different directions. It feels like. And you know, football momentum does shift, but the injuries for the Detroit, it feels like at some point and it really has reached that point that they have caught up to him, right? It's like now they're saying I'm on Rod St. Brown might be out. And it's like, okay, Golf now has lost his number one tight end, his number one receiver. This is already a guy that needs his weapons to succeed. On the flip side with Dallas, it feels like every week picking CD and Dak, all that, that three Just keeps getting better and better. I mean you can throw Ferguson in there. He's been great for them at tight end. So I don't know, is it better? I just, I have to bet the Lions are nothing else. I hate this game. I hate, I hate it so much. I'm so glad in our contest we can't make this a pick because I really want to take Dallas to three and a half. Like there's three and a halfs out there. But man, is this number just off to me. Like my model has just said one and a half. So it's a Cowboys line if you guys want to bet with the computer. I think it's just like with the public. It's like all the injuries. You can't overlook it this Lions team, how banged up they are. But I just like you said, maybe I'm keep living in the pastless Lions team. It just feels like this is the exact spot the lines put up 50 against, you know, a defense that as great as people make them out to be, I don't know. I still have questions about that secondary of that Cowboys team. So it feels like a good spot for Lions, but I just can't get there.

Chad Millman (14:45)

Chad. Yeah, I wanted to be on the Lions here. I don't want to bet the Cowboys because it's just the public play and the line is moving in their direction. The majority of the bets are on the Cowboys right now. And my issue with the Lions and we've bet into the Lions because we have believed they're going to turn it around and this is going to be a Lion spot and they're going to be at home and this is when they tend to make themselves get healthy and turn things around. But here's the problem. Their offensive line just isn't as good and we've always bet on their offensive line. Everything for Detroit's success in every single way starts with their offensive line. They do not have the same interior offensive line that they had last year. They have lost Frank Ragnow. They have lost Kevin Seitzer who's starting for Tennessee. Now. They don't have the same talent there and the people they put in place haven't been as good and are injured. And that interior line is where everything starts. It's how their running game gets going. It's how Jameer Gibbs gets up through the middle of the line and then is able to break runs outside and beat out defensive backs to the sidelines and to the goal. It's how they are so good at converting fourth downs. If you look at their games. They're not converting fourth downs, and that's giving the opponent short fields and opportunities to score that the Lions can't come back from. And it also isn't protecting Jared Goff up the middle, which is why he's been so wildly ineffective. And the Cowboys now have Quinn and Williams in the middle of why.

Simon Hunter (16:19)

We'Re not the Cowboys here. Like you just said, it just feels like this is why we should be running the Cowboys. That's why I'm having such a hard time with it. It's like my computer is telling us to do it. Yeah, no, we should do it. And just the better in us are just scared off because it is so public. Just everyone has the same process. Public where it's like even just going through their schedule, you know, they beat that Tampa team 24 to nine before their bye weekend. We all know that was a banged up Tampa team. Is that really that good of a win? Since then, they've lost in Minnesota, they beat a backup with Washington, lost to the Eagles, beat up a backup with a giant, and then lost to the Green Bay packers by what could have been double digits. Right. It was only a touchdown, but felt like Green Bay really had their way in that game. So maybe people are right. We're acting like this team is still a top four, top five team in NFC and maybe they're kind of a seven, eight, nine team that's going to miss the wild card and that's what they are. So this is really unique. It really is. Where it's like we both kind of know we should take Dallas, but the betters in us have seen this game before and we've seen Cowboys just totally lay an egg here. So it's a really hard one to get a read.

Chad Millman (17:25)

On. Also, I will say their secondary, they refuse to stop playing man to man. And I think also you mentioned that Bucs game, which is really smart because in that game their secondary was banged up and they were playing so well in man to man. That's an image that we all have in our heads from a primetime game. And for you and I, who bet on the lines of that game, we were just so excited to see them turn it around and do what they did. CD and Pickens against man to man coverage when Terry and Arnold, who was supposed to be a shutdown corner, is out. Kirby Joseph is injured. Amik Robertson is the one guy they count on and he's really a slot corner who's better off in zone than man to man. I love his heart I don't love his size. I don't love his speed. Like, there's a lot of things wrong here. And we keep thinking that it's going to be the Lions team of old, and it's not. And I wish we had been thinking like that for other games in the past. I agree with you. I don't want to be on the public side here. That's what's stopping me. And maybe we're just being.

Simon Hunter (18:26)

Stubborn. It's.

Chad Millman (18:28)

True. Washington minus one and a half now at Minnesota. Reminder Sunday night. We said take the Commanders when they were underdogs. This line was going to move. It moved. It did exactly what we said it was going to do after. By the way, nice job, Simon. We had the Commanders plus six, plus six and a half against the Broncos worked out exactly like we planned. We expect to get JJ McCarthy back this week out of the concussion protocol. We also expect to get Jaden Daniels from his dislocated elbow. Wow. This Vikings team is in disarray right now. They cannot find the answer of how to even respond about how bad their quarterback situation.

Simon Hunter (19:12)

Is.

Chad Millman (19:13)

Who. Who's at fault? Is it the GM? Is it the coach? Did S. Did JJ McCarthy say to Sam Darnold, I wish we had you back? Like it is. It is chaos right now in.

Jason Timf (19:24)

Minnesota.

Simon Hunter (19:25)

Yeah. But at the same time, it feels like they have to play. And like I've talked about, they just. You just gotta. They already threw him to the Wolves early in the year where they basically put him in there. I mean, just had to drop them in after he come off an injury. And it's the same thing here where it's like, yeah, they could hold him out of concussion. What good does that do? They need to see if this kid can start improving week by week. Right. Because right now it's just rock bottom. We all think he's me, out of the league in two, three years. So it's a bizarre line. Like you just said, this is flipped. There's a couple books right now. You can still get Washington plus one and a half, Jeff. So this. This line seesaw, and I think we're both in agreements. Like, if Daniels is back, how is this not a great spot for the Commanders? Right. You have Terry McLaren back and healthy with their quarterback Daniels. That's a nice combo. Like, that's a combo that should be able to push the ball downfield against a Vikings team. We see that they are good defensively, but they're not what they were last year. Right. They're not this juggernaut takeaway machine. We've seen them be up and down this season defensively. So for me, this is a very bizarre line. Like we both agree if it's Daniels and we're getting plus one and a half, especially in our own contest, we can lock that in today. That's the type of line we sit on. We don't move because it feels like it could easily get the minus three, minus four in Washington once it's confirmed that Daniels is back. Because I still think within the organization of Washington, they don't. There's some people that do not want him to play this year. Honestly, they're just. Some people have been there since the RG3 experience and they're very weary of trying to have a kid come back too early from an injury again. This isn't Daniel's first injury this year. Right. He's missed a couple games already this.

Chad Millman (21:03)

Year.

Simon Hunter (21:04)

Yeah. With injuries. So it's a unique spot where I know people are thinking, come on, like, is this I get to get competitive. But is he really trying to rush back to lead us to what? Like, we're out of the division. They're not going to catch Dallas or the Eagles. It doesn't really make sense for him to rush back other than he's a really high level competitor and he just wants to play Daniel. So it is us as bettors. We're betting on him being back this week because we heard he could have played last week. Apparently, like he was cleared.

Chad Millman (21:29)

Enough.

Simon Hunter (21:30)

Yeah. And they held him out that game. So I still like us taking it here. Chad. I just don't get the line. I don't get why they're still plus one and a half's up there where everyone knows he's probably gonna be back on the other side. Jj, he's a train wreck. Like, we've seen him play. Could he put it together a good game or would. Yeah, of course. We saw him against that Lions team where a good game for him is just not making stupid turnovers. So I just, I'm a little lost on this one. But I, I, we're in an agreement. If you can get the one and a half plus one and a half on Commanders. How do you not bet that right.

Chad Millman (21:59)

Now? Yep. Totally.

Simon Hunter (22:01)

Agree. Should I make it? Simon says I feel like you should make a Chad's twist. I think it. Simon says I feel like I should. I'm looking live at Hard Rock here in Jersey and they're plus one at Hard Rock.

Chad Millman (22:10)

Commanders. If you can get the Commanders as an underdog I think you have to get.

Simon Hunter (22:14)

It. So I'm gonna make. I'm gonna make an executive decision. Simon says, I want to play a game. Simon says, give.

Chad Millman (22:23)

Me. Simon says. Presented by Hard Rock. Bet it's going to be the Washington Commanders at plus one. Go get it at the Hard Rock books right now. Simon says. Presented by Hard Rock Packed another game. Short line. Indianapolis Colts -1 112 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. So I bet this. I bet the Colts minus one and a half. Honestly, it's a bet against the Jags, and it's a bet against Trevor Lawrence. And it's a bet because, you know, my model likes the Colts in a spot. A good team off of a tough loss against a good team that's off of a blowout. I tend to think there's going to be a little bit more value on the team that is off of the tough loss. And this is all of a sudden become such a challenging situation for the Colts because the Texans have a ton of momentum. The Jags are now right with them for first place in the AFC south. And we know about the Daniel Jones broken fibula, shattered fibula, fractured fibula, whatever it is. And we also know that we don't know when it happened and he can't say when it happened. So he might have been playing great all season on an injured leg, but whatever the case is, since the bye, he had a good first half against the Chiefs and then cratered in a game in which the Chiefs came back and won. He had a very mediocre game, minus some gorgeous passes in the Texans game in which the Texans won and the Colts could not get it done and convert at the end of the game when they still had a chance to win that game. Is it the leg? Is it the Chiefs defense? Is it the Texans defense? Sauce Gardner will not be playing in this game. Like, you got to feel for this team a little bit. They were riding so high. They went all in. They went to get Sauce Gardner. Now he's out for an extended period of time. Jones is playing on whatever he has with a. With his fibula. I'm on the Colts, but I'm feeling less confident about it than I was the other day. I really bet it because I thought the number was going to.

Simon Hunter (24:26)

Move. I bet a Tuna has moved. Actually, there's some twos out there now on this Colts team, but I. I gotta go against it. I got the jags at minus 3 in my model, so apparently this number is way off an incredible Jag spot. And I was like, okay, I'm, we're definitely overlooking the Jones injury because like guys, yeah, I, I have been moving his number down and every week it's, it's been working for us going against them because like we said, they've just, something's been off with them and they have nothing clicking. It's. It makes sense, right? They only could go so far as Daniels can go because these teams just taken away Taylor and you know, looking at this matchup I was just like, okay, if the weakness now is going to be once again the cold secondary, isn't this when you want to back this Jags team where we've seen with Brian Thompson Jr. Back and Myers, that's a pretty good tandem there. Like that's a nice one. Two receiving core for Trevor Lawrence is, you know, as bad as he is, those guys are just wide open against certain defenses. Right. They're just not going to have cover corners for both those guys. And even the trends going back a long time here, we always know we always back the Jaguars against the Colts. That's why I was like, oh, finally we will be able to back the Colts against the Jags because just historically the Jags have owned the Colts. Doesn't matter who the quarterback has been like going back to. I think it's 2015, 2016, this Colts organization. Three and 16 against the spread against the Jaguars now you can be like, okay, well give me some Trevor Lawrence stats. How's he been? He's actually been shockingly good as a dog too. Trevor Lawrence against the Colts, you know, it's, it's pretty alarming him, him against the Colts and the Texans. In his career he's 5 and 2 against the spread as an underdog covering by him with seven points per game. So Trevor, we're kind of seeing a picture here. When he's divisionally as a dog, he plays really well. He plays to that number and we've seen as a favorite, we tend to fade them and you know, Colts, if they're at home, I can maybe get talked in this spot but the fact they're on the road, it's another bad spot for them. Against the Jaguars they're one and nine in neutral or away games. So for some reason the Colts have just struggled against the Jags even when the drags have been awful. Like I'm talking if you go back the one year the Jags had one win with Garden Minshew, me and Chad bet on it, they upset and beat this Colts team. I think the Colts are an eight point favorite. And they lost.

Chad Millman (26:51)

Outright. So first game of the year. Only. Only game they lost, only.

Simon Hunter (26:55)

Time. There's weird divisional stuff, Chad. Right. There's always that weird stuff with divisional foes. And like I've said it, this year, it. It might not happen, but the NFC east has not had a repeat champion. You're seeing the Eagles absolutely meltdown. Cowboys are still plus 600 to win the division. Go get it. But to this game, I'm just. I. I was lucky right away I wanted to be in the Colts. My model told me stay away. I'm trying to trust my model more. And even here, the trends tell you the Jags tend to play really well against this cold team matchup. Well, form. So, you know, I'm going to wait and see what's going on the injury report. But if. If the Jags, their number one, number two receivers are healthy, I think that's enough to give me a lean here to this Jags team where I think it's about trust the number. I take him as a dog. So you. You might be able to get twos out there, people. Like I said, the Colts, they're being better right now, and I've seen some professional money coming on them like they were a pick at a couple books. Now they're at minus one, minus one and a half. A couple of already public books are at -2. So if you're like me and you like the Jags, be patient. You may be able to get two, two and a half on this.

Chad Millman (27:54)

Number. Jacoby Myers, even in a couple games, has made a difference just as a sort of an inside receiver that Liam cone can lean on in ways that Brian Thomas was not able to do. And obviously Travis Hunter being out has not been able to do. So that could also be a sneaky difference. You know, he's had some big games already for them that maybe were undercounting. Who knows? I bet the Colts being very uncomfortable, I'm happy to buy out of it. I have no strong conviction on this game. So. Good one. Good.

Simon Hunter (28:31)

One. I was shocked to say, see that my model thinks it's four and a half points off. So that right there was like very like, oh, I am. We're all underestimating this Jags team. They're literally leading this division. They played well all year. We just, I think we all just hate Trevor.

Chad Millman (28:45)

Lawrence. It's just, hey, Trevor.

Simon Hunter (28:46)

Lawrence. It really is. I think it's just simply a Trevor Lawrence bias we're all going through. So this probably is a good spot to back this Jack's.

Chad Millman (28:53)

Team. New Orleans at Tampa Bay. This line has moved up from eight and a half to nine at Hard Rock. Bet. I think there's still some eight and a halfs out there. I don't know. Like this line was three and a half when they played a month ago in New Orleans and the Bucs won that game by 20. But the Bucs did not look good in winning that game at all. It was seven to three at the half and the Bucs only got that touchdown off of pick six. Sixteen of their 23 points basically came on turnovers or short fields. So this was a early indicator that the Bucks are not as effective as they had been. Now of course, obviously they didn't have Chris Godwin, they didn't have Bucky Irving. It's a different team. The Saints are not Jacoby Brissette and the Cardinals. The line has moved in the Bucs direction. I really don't have a read on this game. I'm waffling because I don't have any thoughts on this.

Simon Hunter (29:56)

Game. Another game I hate because I have to bet the Saints where it's like I wanted to be on the Bucks like you just said. I watched that Buccaneers game because I had a decent amount of money on and Bucky Irving is so good. He's such a game changer. That offense. Just his contact, his move within when it's really tight, getting downfield. I mean he had a touchdown called back on just a horrible hold by one of his teammates where it's like he had a walk in touchdown. It's just a different offense when he is in there and you know, God, when. If you didn't have that bad drop, they usually cover that number last week. So it's, it's a Bucks team that I assumed the public would be off, they'd be undervalued. But no one believes in the Saints team. This number is probably off by two points. Like I again have this at seven. So it makes sense that the public is just totally off the Saints team. The fact that did they really believe in them covering against Miami or was that really just two of playing horrible and keeping them in that game? Right. Miami dominated that.

Chad Millman (30:48)

Game.

Simon Hunter (30:48)

Yeah. They could have put them away and they let them hang around. And I think some people said they got burned because I think they had three and a half on that two pointer. I, I never saw the three and a half. I saw five, four and a half all week on that.

Chad Millman (30:59)

Same. Never saw. Never. So I never. I didn't even see five or Four and a half. I never saw anything lower than five and a half because I wanted to bet the Dolphins and didn't pull the trigger because I just felt like it was too.

Simon Hunter (31:10)

High. Yeah. So again, you dive into the trends, too. Like, looking at the trends here for this Saints team, I thought was really interesting that I. I felt like I. We always backed them in their division as a dog and, you know, we always have to make ourselves bet against them. Right. Because they're always going to be blowing up numbers like this. I mean, they have not had a relevant quarterback since Drew Brees, so that makes sense. But it's crazy how undervalued they've been to the general public. So since 2018. So I feel like that's the end of the Drew Brees era. They're 15, 6 and 1 against the spread on the road against NFC South. That's 8 and O chat as an underdog. That's crazy. So they've just been covering machine as an underdog in their division because it's what we all think. Right. They're just a bad team and they just seems like every week they get rolled, but they keep games close. Right. Even. Even that game last week, they're getting dominated. They somehow pulled it back in to keep it close and cover that number, so I thought that was really interesting. They've just been covering divisionally, especially in the sense that it feels like they've been so irrelevant since Drew Brees. So, yeah, that. That one jumped out to me where I was like, you know, I thought it was gonna be Oliver Baker here back on this Bucks team once again because I just loved seeing their offense move down, up and down the field last week. But what I really went back and watched. There's still a little bit of inconsistency with Baker. You know, not to blame God when on that drop, but it still feels like Mecca Abuka, as great as he was start the year, he's not been that guy these last couple weeks. Right. It's a lot to put on a rookie to be your number one. So I just have some more questions about this, this Bucks team at this time when I do the same. So I'll. I'll take the Saints here. That's such a huge number divisionally. But it's another game where I don't know if I'm enforced it to be one of our fives, but I do. I do think the number is a little inflated.

Chad Millman (32:49)

Here. Yeah. When like my point about saying that it was three and a half a month ago. On the road in New Orleans. You know, just by the math it should be about let's say seven or eight when you just said it's about two points off. So let's say it's seven, seven and a half. It just feels like too big of a number. And I think people are too enthusiastic about the return of Godwin and Bucky Irvin and they're downplaying the Saints, but I just have no idea. Are we going to get Tyler Schuck who's in the second half and is slinging? Are we getting Tyler schuck in the first half who was down what, 196 to Miami? I mean the beauty of getting a big number is it's a big number in this bucks defense actually hasn't been very good. I do want to know one thing. I want to know if Alvin Camara is going to be playing because I do think the rush defense for the Bucks, it's been a little bit suspect. We've seen teams run on them. So if Alvin Camara is back, that makes me feel a little bit better about betting the bucks. I do not have the strong conviction on betting this number that you do. Even though I know it's the. It's the right side to.

Simon Hunter (33:57)

Bet. That's right. I mean I literally, I had a pro text me last night. It's like you and Chad, you had Dart Rogers and Sanders as the three quarterbacks in your guys contest that lost. Yeah, I go, that's fair.

Chad Millman (34:11)

That. Totally.

Simon Hunter (34:12)

Fair. Fair criticism.

Chad Millman (34:13)

Yeah. So we're gonna go with shuck. That's what we're doing.

Simon Hunter (34:15)

Now. Trevor Lawrence, like. I know, I.

Chad Millman (34:18)

Know. Why do that when Simon. We've got Miami visiting the New York jets and the New York jets are two and a half point underdogs and we could go with Tyrod Taylor. In fact, Chat's choice presented by Hard Rock Bat is going to be the New York Jets. Jets. Jets. Jets at home is two and a half point underdogs against the Miami.

Simon Hunter (34:42)

Dolphins. Are you sure you want to do this? Are you willing to make a.

Chad Millman (34:47)

Choice? A choice. We can't run from who we.

Simon Hunter (34:50)

Are. Sharp dudes can just see it, you know what I.

Chad Millman (34:54)

Mean? I did bet the jets at plus three. We talked about it on Sunday. So the line was moving literally during our show. We said live, if you want to get the jets, get them right now at +3. I still bet him at 2 1/2 just because I think they're the right side here. I'm probably going to bet him on the Money line too, as I did last week against the Falcons. Do you remember, Simon? Do you remember their last game against the Dolphins in Week 4? It was a Sunday night game. You and I both bet the Jets. Do you remember anything about that.

Simon Hunter (35:32)

Game? I don't. Must have been blocking it out. That's crazy. I don't remember it.

Chad Millman (35:35)

Honestly. That was the game where the Dolphins opened the game with a field goal. The jets then went on a, I think a 12 play fumbles. 12 play drive, 82.

Simon Hunter (35:49)

Yards.

Chad Millman (35:50)

Yeah. Braylon Allen literally is crossing the goal line. He's millimeters from crossing the goal line. Fumbles the ball. The Dolphins recover. They go on a 15 play, 94 yard drive. They're up 10 nothing. The next drive, the jets are driving again. Justin Fields fumbles the ball. All of a sudden it's back and forth, back and forth. But the jets are never really able to to get the game close again. They lost 27, 21, but they were generally down two scores the entire game. So we were never coming close to covering that game. It, it was an excruciating giant like performance until last night. It might have been the most frustrating game we had all year. So you're telling me that when the jets were two and a half point underdogs on the road in Miami, now we got Tua in 40 degree or less weather not playing well. He's the reason he completed five passes in the second half of that game against the Saints and he's the reason why they were able to come back this past week. Now I got Tyrod Taylor, who's a good runner. I got a Jets defense that is performing better since they got rid of Sauce and Quinn and Williams and they're still two and a half point underdogs now at home in shitty weather in December for tua, who never performs that way well in those conditions. Makes no sense to.

Simon Hunter (37:15)

Me. Give me the jets going back to the. Well, I don't hate it. Shop around people. There are some threes popping up out there. You know, not that we got away with it last week, but it's just, it's always nice having that three when there's so much chaos in these jets games. But we talked a little bit about it. Tyrod Taylor is just consistently underrated by the market. He has been his whole career. I mean who, who? I'm trying to think of a fan base that just loves him. I guess the only one I can think of is the Bills. Right? He got him to the playoffs. That was absolutely.

Chad Millman (37:46)

Magical. But Raiders, he Was a pro bowler. I.

Simon Hunter (37:49)

Think. I think that was Hunley, but it could have been Tyrot the other. But it's just. It's crazy. And just going through his stats, this is all gambling stats, obviously. He's 37, 214 against the spread in his career. So 63, pretty insane. We talked about it feels like these last couple years. He's been an absolute machine at covering since 2022. He is 70 and 1 against the spread in his last eight starts. So Guy just undervalued by the market. We'll keep betting it, but I'm on the flip side of you. Like you just said, how bad Tua played. I've seen this all year with Tua. He just lays eggs like that in the next game. He's just automatic. He's so up and down right now. And it's why it's. I think Miami fans are in the same boat as everyone else where it's like, okay, his peak best year was two years ago. It's. It's just gotten consistently worse ever since then. And it feels the same with this year where he's just been so up and down. So I like to play. Even though it says technically a bounce back spot for Tua, I think Chad's nailed it. That the weather in the northeast right now is brutal. And we've seen it. Every time it's bad, it's for Tua. Outdoors in the cold, he just struggles like the numbers back up as well. He's just bad in the bad weather and, you know, doesn't matter if it's rain or not. If it's below 35, Chad, we know the deal. If it's below freezing, he just cannot win those games. So I love it. We both talked about. We love Tyra Taylor. Just get the three. We're talking Hard Rock right now, which is two and a half. But I'm seeing a couple books out there with the three, so hopefully you can get.

Chad Millman (39:19)

That. It is supposed to get colder in that game as the game goes on. So yes, let's back the Jets. Jets. Jets. Jets. Jets. And also, let's get a little bit of a word from our friends at Hard Rock. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. And they've got big news. Hard Rock Bet is now live in Michigan. Sign up today and place your first $5 sports bet. If it wins, you get $150 in bonus bets on top of your winnings. And if you're more into casino games, new customers can get up to $1,000 back in casino Bonus if you're not up money after your first 24 hours playing slots, win money or get a casino bonus back. Plus you also get 200 bonus spins with winnings paid in cash. Not sure what to place your first bet on? Head over to the Hard Rock Bet Stats hub and it'll help you out. It's loaded with trend streaks and stats to help guide your picks. Numbers don't lie and neither does the data in there. Check out the Stats hub now, get the edge and bet with confidence. Hard Rock Bet offers new promos daily plus big legendary reward drops every Thursday like gifts under the tree. So whenever you're listening, just open the app and check out what you've got waiting for you. Download the Hard Rock Bet apple and make your first deposit. Sports welcome offer is payable in bonus bets, not a cash offer. Casino offer issued as non withdrawable site credits 10 plus dollar deposit required for 200 bonus spins for Huff and more. Puff only up to $1,000 back in casino Bonus if player has a net loss on slots after the first 24 hours. Casino bonus credit has a 1 times wager requirement offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital LLC. Must be 21 and over and physically present in Michigan to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling? Call.

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Chad Millman (45:09)

Details. The Tennessee Titans are visiting the Cleveland Browns and they are three and a half point underdogs. And I think last year if Cam Ward was playing Shador Sanders for Miami against Colorado, this would have been like the marquee matchup. It would have been a primetime Saturday game. We would have gotten all the pageantry in the world. Instead, it's a game in which the models are telling me to bet the Tennessee Titans. And I want to tell the models to fuck off because I want to spend one Sunday not having to be engaged with or watch the Tennessee Titans in any way. The line is moved in the Titans direction. I saw some four and a halfs. Definitely four. It's now three and a.

Simon Hunter (45:56)

Half. We know exactly what we're supposed to do.

Chad Millman (45:59)

Here.

Simon Hunter (46:00)

God. We're supposed to take the Browns. My God. Like, like you just.

Matt Mitchell (46:04)

Said.

Chad Millman (46:05)

Yeah. Because they played outside.

Simon Hunter (46:06)

Right. Coming in all in on Tennessee, like you said. And it's like, okay, if the pros are coming on Tennessee and the public is joining them, isn't this the exact spot we do take the Browns? Because we, we talked about the Browns at home. That defense, I mean, this, these are terrible, terrible.

Chad Millman (46:22)

Teams.

Simon Hunter (46:22)

Terrible. Have a highly elite defense. Like we talked about that, that 49ers game, that was no, no way, shape or form on that Browns defense. This number is acting like it was this. If anything, this number should be six because of how good this Browns defense.

Chad Millman (46:40)

Is. Like, I just, the Brown score six points in this game. Like, in my head I was like, this feels like a 3 nothing.

Simon Hunter (46:47)

Game. I just can't believe it. Like you just said, the all the money is coming in on this Titan side. And I, I.

Chad Millman (46:56)

I. Isn't your model telling you to bet the Titans.

Simon Hunter (46:59)

Here? It shockingly wasn't like, I actually had this at minus four and a half for. So I guess the opening number was pretty good for Titans, right? The Titans open four and a half. Five. Yeah, but yeah, I just. To me, this is like total overreaction by everybody. I just cannot believe people are comfortably betting on Cam Ward on the road in Cleveland. I don't know. Maybe I'm missing something. I'll get some, some professional calls about this one because I was dying, like, even diving into the numbers, it's like this kid wants to turn the ball over. Cam Ward takes insanely high risk throws. He holds onto the ball, I think second longest in all football right now. It's like this is just again, all music to my ears against Cleveland. This is exactly what they want. I mean, Miles Gary must be thinking to himself, this is the week I can get five sacks and just absolutely break this record by 10 because I still have four games left. So it just all lines up for me on this Browns team. And I got so many funny texts last week about how on Tuesday I said, no matter what, I won't be involved in any type of Tennessee game. And then somehow try to put them in come Sunday into Our contest. I have a disease, a sickness with this Tennessee team. So maybe I'm just completely wrong. I should just avoid it. You know, the Browns, they're. They're in a funny spot here that were. I'm interested to see what the public does with this line because maybe it is just all professional mind and the public are on the Browns and I'm missing it. But right now everything I've seen, it's just professional. And the public have come in super heavy on this Tennessee tie where it's like, did we all just forget this Browns defense is like top five in this league and now it's a rookie in their home stadium. This isn't Brock Purdy. This is Cam Ward. Like, it's just, I can't believe the opportunity we might have here on this Brown team. So I'll be patient. Maybe I'll get under three again. I'll get an insanely good number on this Brown side because like we just talked about, it's gone all the way from 4 and a half to 3 and a half at a lot of.

Chad Millman (48:50)

Books. Supposed to be 30ish and getting colder as the day goes on in Cleveland on Sunday. No sign of precipitation. I mean, I could be talked into it as long as I don't. As long I like the Browns. You know, when we're watching, like I got four games up and plus a game on my laptop. And so normally when I'm watching the games that we've got bets on, I tend to watch when they're like, put the sound on for those games. When the teams that we have bets on are on offense, the Browns are the team that. When we have bets on the Browns, I put the sound on when they're on defense because I feel like that's the only way they're going to win a game. So for the Browns to win this game, I think they're going to have to have at least multiple turnovers and at least one turnover return for a touchdown for us to actually cover a number that is bigger than.

Simon Hunter (49:45)

Three. And I feel like all those things are at like 60, 70% chance of happening. Like this is just, just an insane spot for this Browns defense to be in against the Titans offense that has shown nothing all season until it's the, you know, prevent defense in the games. That's when Cam Ward seems to shine. So I, I get it. It could be a better backdoor spot for them. But like you said, defensively, I just think they're going to dominate for three quarters and get turnovers. And this is, that's. That's how Browns are going to win this year with Shador Sanders at quarterback having short field. It's not like last week where he was on his own 10 and 15 the entire game. Like he just, he cannot exist in that world. Shador Sanders. So I just like this matchup allowed for this Browns.

Chad Millman (50:22)

Defense. How do you feel about the Atlanta Falcons as seven point underdogs at home against the Seattle Seahawks? Because this line has moved from seven and a half down to seven and like I know I just said I don't want to watch bad teams that I have to depend on. I know the pros are on Atlanta. Seattle looked so good. Public sentiment is so on the Seahawks side and the Falcons are in such disarray and looked terrible. Everything about that loss to the jets is a tragedy. The Atlanta Falcons had the ball and a chance to drive down the field to get into field goal range and win the game with 53 seconds left. Four downs, 53 seconds left, they had the ball and somehow they still lost the game in overtime. That's how tragic that loss was for the Falcons. You couldn't get more of a disparity between peak Falcons and val peak Seahawks and Valley Falcons than you get right.

Simon Hunter (51:37)

Now. It's possible. I still think overall though it's. It's not. People don't love the Seattle team. I thought this would be another game where it's like tons of tons of money just pouring on Seattle here because this feels like an amazing spot. We've talked about it. It's a Seattle team that is one of the best teams of football on the road. They are like as dominant as they. They were their last game at home and their defense was. Their defense is even statistically better on the road, especially this season. And we've Talked about Mike McDonald. He's been a machine on the road. Like I told you. I don't want to bet against him when he's on the road. I just simply want to take him because I feel like long term it's going to be a winner. And you know, it's really early career here, but since he's taken over, he's 9, 4 and 1 against the spread on the road. That's really impressive. And on the east coast, just saying east coast for him, he's five, two and one against the spread. So he's done really well in these spots. Sam Darnold as well, it feels like he performs well as big favorites. Shockingly, where usually when they give him these type of big Numbers like last week, you know, he didn't do much last week. It usually evens out with him. Right. So just dive into the trends with him where how long he's been playing now it's not that small of a sample. Right. So he's been this exact spot. So a favor 6 points or more 10 times he's 100 straight up in his career. 8 and 2 against the spread. So tends to cover as a big favorite. He's usually really good in these type of spots. And if you're a Falcons team, I feel like what they're going to grasp at is the fact that maybe people like me and the public do overreact to when they come off like what Chad just said is a really bad.

Chad Millman (53:06)

Loss.

Simon Hunter (53:07)

Yeah. And just this season alone off a loss, they're 5 and 2 against the spread. So it is a team that tends to perform well after a loss and the public underrates them. But you dive into and it's just like, my God, if this is still Kirk Cousins against the Seattle defense just talking an absolute nightmare for him. Right. It's. They're going to take away the run. Like this is a defense that can take away the run and make a team one dimensional. I think that's what they're going to do here with Kirk. So if it's Kirk once again without his number one receiver and he's forced to make big time plays against to me, an offense that they had their down week last week, like I think Sam Darnold is going to get his in this matchup against a secondary just got torn up by Tyrod Taylor. So I mean let's not like joke about it like that even. What was it Jonathan Taylor ran for 250 against them. Like there are so many ways to attack this Atlanta defense that teams have been doing all season and they're one of the worst teams in football. So yeah, I honestly when I first saw these lines I thought I was gonna be on the Falcons. But the more I dive into it, the more I look at it with the Seattle team, they're just what they are this season. Right. We gotta put them the same categories of Rams. They're an absolute juggernaut and probably the top three best team nfc. So I, I really once again wanted to be on the Falcons, but It's now at 7 at Hard Rock. That's a Seahawks number to me. So I'm gonna take that number. If you want to play Falcon seven and a half. I won't fight you on it, but I got this at eight and a half. It's now at seven. I'm gonna take that value on the.

Chad Millman (54:27)

Seahawks. Tyra Taylor is a Super bowl champion and a former Pro bowl.

Simon Hunter (54:33)

Quarterback. He's your new Colt.

Chad Millman (54:35)

McCoy. Getting beat by Tyrod Taylor is not anything to be ashamed.

Simon Hunter (54:39)

Of. 36 years old, but him being you is something. Definitely.

Chad Millman (54:45)

Something. No, it's not. He's a. He's a genius. Genius with the ball in his hands. Pittsburgh at Baltimore. Baltimore is a five and a half point favorite. One of our listeners asked the other night in the live show on Sunday. In the YouTube chat, everyone go listen to the show. Watch the show on Sunday nights. It's live. We're answering your questions from the YouTube chat. Can we please stop betting the Steelers? And normally this would be a spot where we love the Steelers. Here's an amazing stat. Ben Solak, who's a columnist at espn, put out a column this morning and I was reading it and it was great. And it sort of said, what level of alarm are we at? For a variety of teams. He talked about the Steelers. He talked about the Ravens. He talked about the Colts, he talked about the Lions. He had this crazy stat. Aaron Rodgers, 66.4% of his passing yards have come after the catch this season. That is second only to A.J. feely in 2011. In the past 15 years, that's 713 quarterbacks and he is second worst. And then there was like a litany of other stats of which he was like between 70715 for a variety of other downfield passing numbers. Like the line has moved from six and a half to five and a half. So we know money has come in on the Steelers. But I will say this, this Bills team just ran for 250 yards on the Steelers. The last time these two teams played, Derrick Henry ran for 186 yards on his own. And the weakness for the Steelers defense, their Steelers rushing defense is still top down in a lot of categories. They are susceptible to explosive plays, especially late in the game. And some of the things we've seen for this team is where years past when they did keep the game close, they have been getting tired and getting beat on explosive plays the past couple years. And that's a trend. I don't want to be on the, on that side of. I don't want to bet the Ravens, but I don't like, I don't like the Steelers.

Simon Hunter (56:50)

Here. Yeah, it's, this is gonna be a really tough game because I think we both know we, we've been Taking the Steelers in this exact spot for.

Chad Millman (56:58)

20.

Simon Hunter (56:58)

Yes. You know, I, I like you said there's a ton of horrible Steeler stats. My favorite one I saw that just really pertains to the Steelers offense and Aaron Rodgers right now, they haven't completed a downfield pass in 36 days. This, this Steelers team, they are oh for 13, three interceptions their last five games combined on 20 plus air yards. So just historically, like you just said, horrible. I mean, like, you can go look at their schedule, people. That is not five games against absolute juggernaut defenses. These are some defenses that should have been passed downfield on or just.

Chad Millman (57:34)

Look, we're going to talk about the Bengals and the Bills. And the Bills have one of the worst defenses against receivers and explosive plays going down field against the pass of any team in the.

Simon Hunter (57:43)

NFL. Yeah, like Rogers just, I remember he was saying he, he was thinking about how he would love to keep playing another year and maybe come back for Pittsburgh. It is, it's over. All the numbers bear it out. I mean, something might be dumb enough to do it, but he's really done. And it's so painful. Especially diving all the trends here because that's why we love the Steelers here. Because you just. It doesn't matter who the quarterback has been for either teams. As long as it's been horrible on Tomlin, it always plays out the same. The worst. The. The team that is worse record rise and the public hates and does not trust. They always cover in this game, in this matchup. And it's just crazy looking at these trend numbers. So let's go back to 2000. Since 2005, the underdog in this series, 29, 12 and 3 against the spread. So it's 71. So just if you blindly have just bet the dog in this series since 2005, you are hitting a 71 clip, which is, I mean, the dream. And go even further. Okay, if the, the line is three points or more, which we always talk about in these unique spots because the books know all these trends as well. Dinner dog in that spot when it's three points or more, 23, five and three against the spread. So once again, it's just like you blindly bet the dog here. It's been very profitable and you know, it's, it's unique too where you know, we talk about Tomlin as an underdog. That's, that's really when we love him. Right. And this year it's not been paying out for us. And talk a little bit. TJ has just not been the same right. TJ's got all this money. This has been one of his worst years ever. Like he is just non existent, not even getting QB pressures, let alone sacks. He's just been atrocious this year for them. And you know, that really does affect them because you just see once again all these numbers. Tomlin is a dog when in this exact matchup against Harbaugh, he's 134 against the spread, he just always covers because his defense tends to step up. So that's the hardest part for me, Chad. It's like we want to bet them here, but the defense has disappointed us so much. And you know, even Lamar, like you look back to the years when he first came out, how good he was. He was.05 against the spread to start his career against the Steelers team. He just could not get it right. Tomlin really had his number. Now he has covered a few times of late here and you know, that obviously is a big deal, but not as a favorite. It's been really bad for him. And you know, I just, once again I look at these numbers, it's like, okay, what are the Ravens like when they're a big favorite like this? Because this is rare, right? They're at a five and a half, five and a half point favorite in their history when they play this matchup and they're a favorite above this number, they are 3 and 10 against the spread and the Ravens history against the Steelers at this number above. So again, Raven's only been around since 2000. I know it's not going that far back, but just shows if you just blindly bet the trends and take the dogs here, you will be successful. I think me and Chad both don't trust the Steelers team. I don't know about him. I'm probably gonna end up on this Ravens team, especially if the number keeps it moving. Because I think what Chad said true. I just think this Steelers defense is totally gone. They have a quarterback they don't believe in who they shouldn't. All those numbers back it up and they just don't have that identity they've had in the past where even though they've had really bad quarterback play, they've always had a really good dominant defense. It feels like under Tomlin and this year it doesn't feel that way. So I don't know about you, Chad, but I'm going to go against the trends here. I'm going to go with this Ravens team of -5 and a.

Chad Millman (60:50)

Half. Look, half of the battle when you're betting is to figure out when the trend is no longer the right side. Right. We started the show talking about the Lions and the Cowboys. We have had the debate about the Chiefs all season long. Like trying to figure out when these teams that you have relied on for so many years and made so much money on something is off and something is off. And it's not just, you know, the Steelers. It's not just Aaron Rodgers. You talked about TJ Watt, his get off speed has decreased year after year after year after year. Jalen Ramsey, they had to move him to safety. They do not have anyone in the defensive backfield who is able to be a really effective defender against players that are getting deeper into the secondary. So, you know, this feels like.

Simon Hunter (61:43)

I know we've been waiting for. This feels like the start of if they get rid of Tomlin of like 10 years of darkness in the.

Chad Millman (61:49)

Pittsburgh. They have no, they have no path to getting a quarterback right.

Simon Hunter (61:53)

Now. And they've spent all this money on all these old guys on defense, like the most expensive defense in all football. And it's, you know, a bottom five defense right now. It's just brutally, brutally dark days for.

Chad Millman (62:03)

Pittsburgh. They owe T.J. watt, Jalen Ramsey and D.K. metcalf nearly $100 million next year. Like, it is a really tough spot. It's going to be interesting. You know, people are chanting, fire Tomlin. Like, it's getting ugly out there. I hate betting the Ravens here, but I am much more comfortable betting the Ravens than I am the Steelers. I don't know if we'll get there for a final five pick because Lamar just hasn't been Lamar like. And if he can't do what he's going to do, it's hard to back the Ravens. But certainly, certainly an interesting.

Simon Hunter (62:35)

Game.

Chad Millman (62:36)

Yeah. Cincinnati at Buffalo. Buffalo also five and a half point favorite. Simon, the public dog here is going to be Cincinnati. And I really want to bet the Bengals. I want to bet Joe Burrow. I want to bet against the Bills. Coming off of what looked like a dominant win against these Steelers, the Bills passing defense overall is middle of the pack. I just alluded to it. The Bills passing defense against wide receivers is truly atrocious. Third down conversion allowed. They are 20th passing success rate. They are 19th explosive pass rate, 22nd. And we can get into all the, the, the fancy letters EPA, DVOA yards per target allowed to wide receivers are all 24th or worse. But how do I bet on a Bengals defense that cannot stop the run against a team that just gained 250.

Simon Hunter (63:38)

Yards? I feel a little bit as if the public's overacting a little bit to that Bengals win where oh of course as good as they did play like give them tons of credit. Ed felt like everything was going their way in that game between the refs and like you said how bad Lamar played where he had tons of opportunities he just could not capitalize on and you know questioning I get why people are questioning harbor right now because they Derek Henry was getting whatever he wanted. They went away from right away like they just completely abandoned the run where the run game seem to be working. But I'll hit you with all the trends I read about Joe bro because I couldn't believe it where I said it last week we want to bet Joe as a dog especially when the number is big and it worked out last week for us right We I gave up that he was 17 three whenever this when he's an underdog of three points or more now he's 18 and three right after coming last week. So we know if you're just going to play him in these exact spots it is profitable. You know he's shock they've only I guess not shockingly because they're not in the same division. But he's only played against his Bills teams twice in his career, you know I guess well no they did play three times but that one of the one game was the Hamlin game so it doesn't.

Chad Millman (64:42)

Count. That's.

Simon Hunter (64:43)

Right. That's crazy. I didn't think of that. But he is 20 in those matchups against the spread and straight up so he's he's actually beaten Josh Allen both times has played really well against him and both times in those games he scored 24 or more. And so like Chad's kind of alluded to here, even when the Bills had a semi decent defense, Joe Burrows had his way with them and he's played great against them and I know there's a lot of trends and stuff pointing me to back in this Bengals team but Chad just said I just think the same feeling I had with the spill team they played the Bucs a couple weeks ago which is it was this huge dog with a quarterback that people believed in and he kind of played up to it the whole game and then he eventually got caught at the very end of it where last week I think it's a nice spot to back where Josh Allen did not play well. I love these type of games where he's after games he doesn't play that great where we've seen Especially this year he just plays so well and bounces back especially at home. At least have a matchup. So it's another game where like Chad said, the public is coming in so heavy on the Bengals. You can be patient. I'm going to bet it now that it's under 6, especially at hard Rock, this could keep getting hit like the pros could come in with the public and bet this down just because tons of trends favor the Spangles team. Like Chad said, there's numbers that showcase how bad the secondary is of the spills team that teams like the Bengals that want to push the ball downfield should excel against. But I just think defensively they're going to be in such a struggle that if Joe Umbrella has just two or three three and outs it's going to be over. Like I just to me this is a Josh Allen puts up 42 type of game and gets back in the MVP type of conversation. So I, I know it's a big number of people and it's like oh my God, the guy just gave us the Ravens as a favor. Now he's against the Bills. But it's all about the numbers, right? Both those numbers are under the key number of six. I, I like playing that key.

Chad Millman (66:21)

Number. Now Matt Mitchell is only dreaming about exactly what you're talking about happening as the king of Western New York.

Matt Mitchell (66:29)

Gives a It's like pizza.

Chad Millman (66:30)

Baby. It's good no matter.

Simon Hunter (66:31)

What. There's music in the air. Jump up and shout now it's a good.

Chad Millman (66:39)

Time. Do you know what I mean? Denver at the Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders are seven and a half point underdogs. I don't want to bet Bonix and the Broncos as big favorites in the division. I don't want to bet the Raiders who just couldn't cover as big dogs in the division against a QB who literally broke his hand in the middle of the game. So I have no opinion on.

Simon Hunter (67:05)

This game and they have, I feel like they have so much bad karma coming back from the Raiders. Like I, I've had so many clips sent to me of them just doing the seediest shit to Herbert in that game. Like there was this one player, Herbert's going out like hands a ball and he runs off to the left. He's not even involved in the play and a guy comes sprinting in and goes after the hand that's wrapped like literally attacks his hand that's wrapped when he's not even involved in the play and it's just like oh my God, like some of These guys are just such pieces in this Raiders team. So I'm with you. I don't know if I'm bed and bone Nicks at this big of a number. Like even looking at all of the numbers. We talked about it you know a little bit on Sunday night where it's like as much hate as you want to give Bo Nix he is clutching into these games like even in that overtime game that was clutch drive by him once again where it's like he just does so many bad things that makes us not believe in him like me and Chad are right now. But it's pretty wild in his early career here as a favorite. He's 151 straight up in his career. Like that's, that's really impressive for a guy like him that this year the books have over adjusted to it because I think last year he was 8 and O against the spread as a favorite. This year they kind of knew that, right? They knew the public would kind of bet these numbers so they've always bumped these games up by a point or two. He's now 2 and 6 this season as a favorite. So what Chad has just said, it's true. It's like well I don't, we don't want to really betting him as a big favorite here at/7 and a half. And I totally get with you're saying and I'll probably end up on the Raiders but I'm like you, I'm gonna put no real money into this game. I'm just happy to put the Broncos into maybe a couple Moneyline parlays or teasers and just not even watch a second of this.

DJ Wells (68:39)

Game. Get your mother loving ears on because your big time radio DJs got news. PayPal lets you choose how you want to pay for all the stuff. With PayPal I can pay in store, pay online or pay overtime. What's that? You want this translated into song? I hope you're sitting down. You can pay your own way. You keep those ears off, you hear? Don't just pay baby.

Simon Hunter (69:08)

PayPal. Learn more@paypal.com yo, it's DJ Wells.

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Chad Millman (72:15)

Details. Let's talk about the most important game in the history of the world The Chicago Bears visiting the Green Bay packers minus six and a half hungry Bears are violent Bears. Remember the other day when I said to you Ben Johnson taking his shirt off is something that will endear him to Chicago fans forever and like he truly understands the spirit of the city and the connection that team has with the city. Yesterday I got a picture sent from one of my buddies in Chicago in the Chicago text chain of a bunch of Bears fans in Bears jersey standing outside shoulder field. And I don't know if it was AI or what or if it was like they quickly constructed like a statue of Ben Johnson flexing with his shirt off in front of Soldier Field. That's how much this guy means to the city right now and how much he is connecting with the fans of the city. Whatever that thing was, I loved it. I think it was amazing. I think it captured sort of what he has done so perfectly as a Bears fan. Like the belief in him right now is so crazy. Last week I said how little respect can the Bears be getting if they are six and a half point underdogs on the road at the Eagles after a high profile dominant win. They are getting no respect as the number one seed in the conference and they are six and a half point underdogs on the road against an incredibly inconsistent team in the Green Bay.

Simon Hunter (73:47)

Packers. Are there like actual Green Bay packers fans in Chicago? Is that super rare? Because obviously it's a close but like you don't really see it, do.

Chad Millman (73:55)

You? Never see.

Simon Hunter (73:56)

It. Never see.

Chad Millman (73:57)

It. Only if they're transplants because like some, you know, overly ambitious cheesehead decides they're going to go make it in the big city and they move to Chicago and they bring their packerdom. And I say that with nothing but love as someone who went to overnight camp for many, many summers in the great northwoods of.

Simon Hunter (74:14)

Wisconsin. Well, I just was wondering because Rogers was your guys daddy for so many years. I just, I couldn't imagine how in a place where you guys are super friendly Chicago, that's probably the one spot where I could see people flipping a script. If someone was just repping Green Bay constantly, it's like dude, do not be repping Green Bay in our city right now. It's been a long time but we saw last year Caleb beat them the final week of the year. I mean it's. I know that was a pointless game but that was some demon slayed there. But I don't know what to do with this one. Chad, like I'm with you. I want to be all over this Bears.

Chad Millman (74:47)

Team. But you also want to fade them because of everything I just said. Like they couldn't be more peak. And also what's scaring me is I'm getting nothing in my feed right now. Obviously, there's a bias in any feed. I'm getting nothing in my feed but praise for how brilliant Ben Johnson's run scheme is. Like, we are so ready. We are so primed for a massive, massive.

Simon Hunter (75:13)

Letdown. Yeah. And it's again, it's a unique spot. The Bears have just, they've been awful against this Green Bay organization. Doesn't matter who their quarterback is, who the Green Bay team is. I mean, I don't want to painfully read you the stats job, but I have to to give the people perspective. Bears are 1 and 11 straight up against the Packers. Their one win was that one I just told you about last year with Caleb Williams in the final week of the year where Green Bay says they weren't trying feel like they were trying. It felt like they were trying. And they got beat straight up by that Bears team that basically quit for the last eight weeks and then beat them in the final weekend. It's shocking to the packers in that run. So they're 11 and one against the Spares team. They're 10 and two against the spread in that run. So it's not like they've just been beating you guys. They've been covering even though everyone knows they've owned you guys and they've been keep backing them. So this is a really unique spot where, you know, I talked to a handful of bookmakers right now. They think the packers might end up being in need come Sunday because they've taken so much Bears moneyline bets and bets on them in the spread. Just I think everyone in the public saw we saw against that Eagles team, which is like, okay, if they can be that dominant, the run scheme, it doesn't matter. Their quarterback is playing at a really low level. I mean, I'm sure you saw the Ben Johnson quotes him, him taking shots at Caleb Williams. It wasn't really him taking shots, to be honest. It was really him just speaking the truth. The guy asked him a question and he answered the truthfully. Basically just said the gist of it was we're not winning because of our quarterback. We're winning despite because of our quarterback play, which I talked coming of the year. This man is a psychopath. He's going to be tough love with Caleb because in his mind, he doesn't feel like he owes anything to Caleb. He's going to be putting him in his best position to succeed. If Caleb doesn't keep growing and get better. I talked about it. He will move on. In two to three years he's going to be in Chicago. I mean, even after this year, I just. Can you see when Ben Johnson went out as welcome before Caleb Williams. I can't. Like you said, he, he feels way more connected to the city than Caleb has in the past two.

Chad Millman (77:13)

Years. Yes, it is Ben Johnson's town. This is Dicka, like.

Simon Hunter (77:18)

Euphoria. You want a dick a stat.

Chad Millman (77:21)

Give me a dick, a.

Simon Hunter (77:22)

Stat. At 7 and 4, he has the best record against the spread of any Bears head coach since Mike Dicka started in.

Chad Millman (77:31)

1982. Deck.

Simon Hunter (77:33)

Coach. It's just, it's just again we, we talk all the time like these teams eventually find the right coach that changes their organization. That's what it feels like with this Bears team. So I'm, I'm, I'm, I can't believe another, I'm being another favorite here, Chad, but I'm probably gonna end up on this packers team just because like you said, it just feels like euphoria on this Bears team is just at peak level. And it's just something about this Packer scene where it just every week it like they got away with their cover last week, but it feels like a lot of that was because of the refs and blah blah, blah. But still when you watch them play, it's like this is such a well coached, good team. Like with the floor, they have a ton of talent. And the Bears on the flip side, they've had so many injuries, I don't know how it's all held up together. It's all worked out for them other than you guys just have a great offensive line and that run blocking is just incredible. So if you are on the Bears, I totally get it. But it's another game where I'm probably gonna end up on the packers. But I hate myself for it. It's like I want to be on the Bears so.

Chad Millman (78:29)

Bad. I haven't bet this because I do want to be on the Bears so bad. And you know, every fiber of my being is telling me it's the wrong thing to do and that it's an emotional bet and then this is exactly.

Simon Hunter (78:42)

When. But this is how it happens though. Like you guys win the division. This is the exact way it happens. You don't see it coming, another upset after you upset the Eagles? Like, I just, I see it for this Bears team. That's Why I want to bet the Bears. It's like I can see it, but the part of me that's so boring is like, well, same old. Green Bay wins here. They win the division. Green Bay is once again the division leader. But I just, I want to believe it with the Spares.

Chad Millman (79:04)

Team. I just want to watch this game and enjoy this game. I want to be in my glory. I want to put on my Bears gear and I just want to be under my blanket and I just want to watch the Bears and I want it to end with enough time for us to come up and do the show and not be miserable. I don't want to watch it while we're about to do the show. At 7:30, the Los Angeles Rams are visiting the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals are eight point underdogs at home right now. It's come down was eight and a half. Cardinals have lost seven games by four points or less this year. They've lost one game by 22 points and one game by 19 points. Both of those were in the division. One to the Seahawks, one to the 49ers. Unfortunately, those were two of the times in which we bet the Cardinals. I think the only two times thinking that of course they're not getting the right value, they're not being respected. And those are the games in which they had probably 17 turnovers in the first five minutes of each game and then played come, they were trying to play, trying to come back the rest of the game. So here we are. Are we getting the Cardinals who keep games close? Are we getting the Cardinals who get blown out by division opponents? And how does that impact our thinking? Like to me, this Cardinal team is so susceptible to everything that the Rams do well. Their defense is fading. Matthew Stafford in a comfortable environment against depleted defensive backfield. Jacoby Brissette kind of stationary against a very good pass rush. And yet the Cardinals keep figuring out ways to do it except division.

Simon Hunter (80:48)

Opponents. I know, I honestly thought I was going to the Cardinals. My model had this at six and a half. So it's like, okay, there's good value here on this Cardinals team. But shout out to our guy, Evan Abrams. He, he, he smacked me with a dead fish. Really woke me.

Chad Millman (81:03)

Up. Dead.

Simon Hunter (81:04)

Fish. Something stank here. And it is December. It is Sean McVeigh's month and I quickly forgot that. And luckily for me, Evan posted all his stats. He is 2511 against the spread in December. And that just sounds like a McVeigh stat because McVeigh, he's just the best. And this Late of the year, he gets his guys right? So brutal, embarrassing loss last week makes me want to bet McVay even more because this is the exact type of spot he bounces back. He basically owns the Cardinals. I just talked about Green Bay being Chicago's daddy. McVeigh is the Cardinals daddy big time here and just all the stats are insane. In his.

Chad Millman (81:45)

Career. Slapping the base big.

Simon Hunter (81:47)

Time. 12 and 4 against the spread. McVeigh when he plays Arizona on the road in Arizona. McVeigh 71 straight up and against the spread in his career as a Favorite in Arizona 60 straight up against the spread. So. Oh goodness, we've just seen it. McVeigh has dominated the Cardinals through, what is it, three different coaching hires since he's on this crazy run. Well, it's just funny where it's like you just see the dysfunction of.

Chad Millman (82:17)

Arizona. Yeah, right. That's what I.

Simon Hunter (82:18)

Mean. Looks like the Rams. He's been to two Super Bowls and he's just owned them divisionally this whole run with McVeigh. And you know, we talk all the time, there's just certain teams divisionally match up with other teams, that there's weird numbers and trends that back it up. And it's really, when you look into it, it makes sense because it's how it's all about matchup and scheme. And some teams just don't match up right or scheme right against certain teams. And. And now it sounds really stupid. When I really dove into this one, it's just because Arizona has literally never had any type of lineback play. And you look into it, they've getting dominated in this matchup by outside runs and tight ends up the seam. So it's like McVeigh has shown them every year what he's going to do against them and they can't stop it. And even more so this year they use 12 personnel, more than they have in the past. So it's even more of a reason to like the ramps here because in the past they've dominated this matchup when they weren't running that many. Two tight end sets this year, that's like their bread and butter. And we've seen that time and time again every week. I mean, how many times you see it on first down, that five yard dump off to the tight end to the left or to the.

Chad Millman (83:21)

Right. It is 12 personnel, 13 personnel. If they could, it would be 14 personnel. Like they've gone four deep on their tight ends this year. It's been one of the new schemes and new sort of creative attacks that Sean McVay has added to the, to the game plan. It's been.

Simon Hunter (83:38)

Great. Yeah. So again, it's, it's like a weird thing where I wanted to be on the Cardinals and I, once again, I'm on another big favorite here. So something's wrong with this week. I'm getting. I'm getting a little spooked about it, but I just think it's, it's a week of. Okay, our people are reacting to the best week. Are people backing off this Rams team because of what happened last week? And I would say it's gone the other way. Right. I've talked to a couple of pros who have come in pretty heavy on this Cardinals team. So a couple books out there. I did open this at nine, nine and a half. It's like we said, it's down to eight and a half. Eight at a couple books. So if you like, if you're like me and you like the Rams, I'm a wait, see what the pros do here and see if I can get under the.

Chad Millman (84:14)

Seven boy. Rams, Packers, Ravens, Bills. Am I the only guy who acts like a professional better on this show anymore? Going with the Jets. Good Lord. All right, let's talk about some primetime games. We know everybody's going to bet the prime time games. These are the spotlight standalone island games that we love. Houston at Kansas City, Kansas City minus three at Hard Rock bet minus three and a half. In most places, it's moved in the Texans direction. The majority of the bets are the Texans. Like the Bengals. I think this is another one that is a public dog. Simon feels like the right time to fade. The Texans.

Simon Hunter (85:01)

Does. I feel like it's moved too much. And I talk a little bit about it on Sunday night where I was like, I feel like I'm gonna end up being on the Chiefs. And I said it was four and a half. I was like, this summer's probably gonna come down. And a couple pros hit me up. They're like, yeah, I love Houston here. This is a great match over Houston, especially defensively, how they match up with this Chiefs team. And on the flip side, like, we've been talking a little bit about this chief's identity defensively, just feels lost right now. Like, it feels like all year their defense has not been what we're used to as bags. Like, usually they get better, especially by the time we get to December, and they still have not improved the way we thought they're going to. And that's just how football's so tough Right. You lose a couple guys, you don't hit the draft. Right. You're losing guys at key positions. You just can't cover those up. Right. Teams have exploit those weaknesses. So shocked, shocked. This numbers move so much, honestly. So I don't know, Chad. It feels like we're doing the same thing we did with the Lions. We're betting on past performance and what we think should be.

Chad Millman (85:53)

Happening. It's just we are, we are accepted. To me the difference is the Chiefs have actually played well this year. Yeah, they just been on the wrong side of the close games. Whereas the Lions haven't played well this year. And the Lions have some, clearly some clear issues and clear personnel issues and clear holes in their, in their roster. We can say that the Chiefs have holes in their roster, but they're also running it more effectively than they ever have. And they still have high performing players on defense and they still have Patrick Mahomes who's doing wildly creative things while holding the ball for an exceptionally long period of time and still being successful. So like I get it. Like I'm going to hold on to the Chiefs with my fingernails and I feel like right now at 3 the numbers move too.

Simon Hunter (86:48)

Much. It has but like we've been saying for what feels like five years now, if it is three and a half, that is the time you're supposed to go against homes. Like with the hook. It's been paying out. And just even these last three weeks, like Chad just said, they've been losing these close games. All three of the games were decided by three points. So I totally get if you're like, okay, well I'm getting the hook. All their games are close and ugly because again, they're not that good of a team. This Chiefs team. Why would you not just finally take this Texas team plus three and a half? But we talk about, we're working with Hard Rock book here. We both want to be on the Chiefs. So I'll take the three in the Chiefs. Hope and pray. Maybe it gets to two and a half. But it's another thing where if this was last year, a couple years ago, me and Chad would be probably hammering this one. One of our bigger bets would be on the Chiefs. I don't have that type of confidence. They just unproven this year in one score games like we talked about, they're one in five this season. We knew there was gonna be regression from last year where I think they're 1101 or 11 zero in one score games. This is like next level. Like they've totally, totally come back the other way in one score game. So shits are going their way like we're playing the odds there. But you know, at this number this becomes a chief's number. But three and a half, if, if you want to be on the Texans, I'd grab it now because I do think the pros are gonna bet that away. I don't see any three and a half's being left by Sunday. Get ready. Are you ready for some.

Chad Millman (88:06)

Football? All right. The Eagles and the Chargers. And the chargers are now 2 1/2 point dogs. The number has moved to three. Good save, Simon. Justin Herbert had hand surgery yesterday on Monday and if I had to guess, given what he has played through so far in his career, he hasn't been ruled out and he might not be ruled out. So I would expect him to play. But is Justin Herbert's non throwing hand going to be what determines whether or not we bet this game? It's already moved in the Chargers.

Simon Hunter (88:40)

Direction, which I can't believe. It's another thing where it's, it's, you know, a couple pros I talked to absolutely love this Chargers team. And as an Eagles fan it's like, oh my God, I'm, I'm missing something here because I thought this would be a great spot for this Eagles team. And the fact that we've seen it with this Chargers team, they just have no offensive line. Every week he is running for his life. And you know, as much as you want to give this Eagles team, they've been getting after quarterbacks, their, their defense. What happened last week was they could not stop the run. So that's something the Chargers can do. But you expect after the Eagles got embarrassed, one of the best DCs in the league. We'll get the guys right for this match against Chargers team. So I can't believe it is what it is. I've taken a piece of this Eagles team, especially now it's at two and a half because there is a possibility that Herbert does miss this game. Like Chad said, he just got surgery yesterday on his non throwing hand. Can he get a wrapped up true competitor with a psychopath coach Put him in there. Yeah. If anyone, if this is the perfect team for that to happen, like Herbert, the ultimate competitor with a coach. Equal, equal kind of thought process. They need this win just as much Eagles do. They're fighting for their own playoff life. So it's a really unique spot where it's like, I kind of, kind of like the Chargers, but it's about the number. So at plus three, plus three and a half, I was going to be on the charger, but now we're under the number, the key number of three on this Eagles team that, you know, as bad as they've been these last two weeks, right, these embarrassing losses, if you keep going back before that, they've been finding ways to win these close games all year. They've been playing bad all year. Just that's not fresh in people's minds because they got blown out in embarrassing fashion last week in a standalone game. The week before that, they had a total meltdown against Dallas. So another game where I'm not going to go too heavy on it because everything is just so off with this Eagles team and we're so late in the year here that, you know, it's a team that I would say probably should be a minus four, minus four and a half favorite to most people's models. But they're this low just because of what we talked about. It's all the off stuff, all the mental stuff is how everything is just so negative around this team, this organization where the flip side, this Chargers team, you know, that was a big win last week, they really were in a dog fight against a divisional opponent. And, you know, I, I just. Another team where it's like the Dallas and the Lions thing, it feels like these are two teams going opposite directions. The Chargers, they even. They're all banged up on their last leg. They believe they can get that seven seed, this Eagles team, they feel like they know they're about to collapse and fall out of the playoffs in Dallas to steal the division. So it's a, it's an interesting game, an interesting number here that, you know, like I just said, the two and a half. They're telling you Herbert's gonna play, so I'm gonna take it now just in case he doesn't. But it feels like it's pretty telling you earlier in the week the Herbert will be back for Monday's.

Chad Millman (91:27)

Game. Simon, in the first half of the show, we were so sharp. Washington plus one and a half, Simon says, talking about the Jags plus two buying out of our Colts position. We talked about New Orleans plus nine, talk about the jets at plus two and a half, chats Choice, talked about the Browns, the Browns at home. And then all of a sudden we're Seattle, where the Ravens, where Buffalo, where Green Bay, where the Rams. What happened to us? All these games are going to be games that we have to pick up again on Thursday once we get some feedback and see how moves are trending and see who's going to be playing and who might be not who might be sitting. This has been Sharper Square part of the Volume Podcast Network. We will be back on YouTube on Thursday with the gains we are zeroing in on plus our head to head battles. Brass balls. So much more. Watch or listen on YouTube @Sharpersquare. Like the video? Subscribe to the channel. Also download us from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you get your pods rate Review, Subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you okay, this isn't college. You're not at a home.

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Which stands for not for long when you make them.

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Calls. I'll be selling.

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Baby. PayPal learn more@paypal.com okay, only 10 more presents to wrap. You're almost at the finish.

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Line. But.

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First. There the last.

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One. Enjoy a Coca Cola for a pause that.

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Refreshes. And Doug here we have the Limu Emu in its natural habitat, helping people customize their car insurance and save hundreds with Liberty Mutual. Fascinating. It's accompanied by his natural ally, Doug Limu is that guy with the binoculars watching us. Cut the camera. They see.

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Simon Hunter (95:50)

Details. This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.