Sharp or Square – NFL Week 14 Bets

Podcast: Sharp or Square
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Date: December 2, 2025
Episode Theme:
Betting experts Chad and Simon break down the NFL Week 14 slate, analyzing lines, betting trends, sharp/square sides, and injury impact on key matchups. They debate when to trust models versus gut feel, evaluate the overreactions in the market, and flag their best bets and avoid spots.

Episode Overview

Chad and Simon deliver their signature mix of sharp analysis and gambler’s therapy as they dissect every key game on the NFL Week 14 slate. They share immediate reactions to line movements, injury situations, model projections, historical trends, and the ever-tough mental struggle of betting on bad teams or fading recent results. The episode is peppered with notable quotes, model-vs-instinct debates, and their favorite betting nuggets for contest and casual bettors alike.

Key Highlights, Insights & Quotes

1. Opening & Reflections on Last Week [03:02–05:30]

• Chad admits feeling frustrated after betting the Giants in a “train wreck” loss, where special teams cost everything.

  "It was just a train wreck. Yet you bet the seven because you're never really out of it...It never really worked out for us." – Chad (04:09)

• Simon notes the brutal nature of betting: “I can't really blame the offense or defense...just really poor special teams play.” (04:36)

• They’re 36-29 in their season-long contest after going 2-3 last week.

2. New Sharper Square Contest Launch! [07:39–12:05]

• Matt Mitchell details a free contest (sharporsquare.thevolume.com) running Weeks 14–Superbowl.
• Dynamic lines, changeable picks, leaderboard features, and a Miami trip grand prize.

  "Totally free contest in which people are going to win prizes and compete against me and Simon." – Chad (08:27)

3. Thursday Night Football: Cowboys at Lions [13:10–18:26]

• Line: Lions -3 (down from -3.5)

• Both recognize “a public Dallas spot,” but can’t bet Detroit due to offensive line injuries.

  "Everything for Detroit's success in every single way starts with their offensive line. They do not have the same interior offensive line." – Chad (14:45)

• Simon’s model says Cowboys -1.5, but both feel “burned” by typical Cowboys letdowns in these spots.

• Notable Trend: Both hosts are torn between model edge (Cowboys) and classic Cowboys mental letdowns in big road spots.

4. Commanders at Vikings [18:28–22:23]

• Line: Commanders +1.5

• “Simon Says” Best Bet: Commanders if you can get them as a dog (Jaden Daniels expected back, Vikings QB situation a mess).

  "Simon says, give me Washington Commanders at plus one. Go get it at the Hard Rock books right now." – Simon (22:14)

• Both emphasize the value will disappear if Daniels is confirmed to play.

5. Colts at Jaguars [22:23–28:53]

• Line: Colts -1.5

• Chad bet the Colts, but Simon’s model makes Jags -3, warning to “trust the number.”

  "I gotta go against it. I got the jags at minus 3 in my model, so apparently this number is way off...the Jags have owned the Colts." – Simon (24:26)

• Historical trend: “Since 2015, Colts are 3-16 ATS versus Jags.”

• Chad is “happy to buy out” and concedes “I have no strong conviction.”

6. Saints at Buccaneers [28:53–33:57]

• Line: Saints +9

• Simon hates the game but prefers the Saints on principle: “They’ve covered divisionally as a dog—8-0 ATS since 2018.”

  "They've just been covering machine as an underdog in their division. Even that game last week, they're getting dominated. They somehow pulled it back in to keep it close and cover that number." – Simon (32:33)

• Chad stresses the number is too high compared to a similar game a month ago (line inflation).

7. Dolphins at Jets [34:15–39:19]

• Line: Jets +2.5 (some +3s around)
• Chad’s “Chat's Choice” best bet is the Jets as a home dog, citing Tua’s historical struggles in cold weather and Tyrod Taylor’s elite ATS record.

  "Tyrod Taylor is just consistently underrated by the market. Since 2022 he is 7-0-1 against the spread in his last eight starts." – Simon (37:46)
  "I'm probably going to bet him on the Money line too, as I did last week against the Falcons." – Chad (34:54)

8. Titans at Browns [45:09–50:22]

• Line: Browns -3.5
• Both hate betting Tennessee, but see the market moving toward the Titans while their models support Browns at home.

  "Supposed to take the Browns...all the money is coming in on this Titans side...this Browns defense is like top five in this league." – Simon (46:04)
  "When we have bets on the Browns, I put the sound on when they're on defense because I feel like that's the only way they're going to win a game." – Chad (49:45)

9. Seahawks at Falcons [50:22–54:27]

• Line: Seahawks -7
• Simon’s analysis: Seahawks road performance is stellar (9-4-1 ATS with Mike McDonald) and Sam Darnold is 8-2 ATS as a big favorite.

  "It's a Seattle team that is one of the best teams of football on the road. They are as dominant as they were their last game at home and their defense is even statistically better on the road, especially this season." – Simon (51:37)

10. Steelers at Ravens [54:45–62:35]

• Line: Ravens -5.5

• Discuss historical trends: “Underdog in this series is 29-12-3 ATS since 2005, and Pittsburgh has always covered as a dog against Baltimore.”

  "[Tomlin] is 13-4 ATS in this exact matchup against Harbaugh." – Simon (59:37)

• However, both sense “something is off” with the Steelers and are wary of betting them.

  "Half of the battle when you're betting is to figure out when the trend is no longer the right side." – Chad (60:50)

11. Bengals at Bills [62:36–66:21]

• Line: Bills -5.5
• “Public dog” warning on Bengals after big win; Simon leans Bills due to Cincy’s run defense issues despite Joe Burrow’s stellar ATS history as a dog.

  "If Joe (Burrow) has just two or three three-and-outs it's going to be over." – Simon (65:06)

12. Broncos at Raiders [66:29–68:39]

• Line: Broncos -7.5

• Both dislike the game:

  "I don't want to bet Bo Nix and the Broncos as big favorites in the division. I don't want to bet the Raiders..." – Chad (66:39)

• Caution: Bo Nix just 2-6 ATS this season as a favorite vs. 8-0 last year.

13. Bears at Packers [72:15–79:04]

• Line: Packers -6.5

• Chad reminisces on Ben Johnson’s cult status in Chicago; debates euphoria-vs-reality as Bears enter a massive letdown spot.

  "Ben Johnson’s town. This is Dicka-like euphoria." – Chad (77:18)

• Simon: “Packers are 11-1 SU & 10-2 ATS last 12 vs Bears.”

  "I want to believe it with this Bears team. I just want to watch this game and enjoy this game." – Chad (79:04)

14. Rams at Cardinals [79:04–84:14]

• Line: Rams -8

• Simon references Sean McVay’s “December Dominance” (25-11 ATS in December), especially versus Arizona.

  "McVay is the Cardinals' daddy big time here. All the stats are insane." – Simon (81:47)

• Both wanted to be on the Cardinals, but models/trends force Rams side.

15. Texans at Chiefs [84:14–88:06]

• Line: Chiefs -3
• Line has moved from 4.5/5 down to 3; majority of public is on the Texans. Chad and Simon agree: "Number has moved too much," making it a Chiefs spot at -3.

  "I’m going to hold on to the Chiefs with my fingernails and I feel like right now at 3 the numbers moved too much.” – Chad (86:48)

16. Eagles at Chargers [88:06–91:27]

• Line: Eagles -2.5 (moved from Chargers +3 after Justin Herbert’s hand surgery news)
• Both surprised at love for Chargers despite injury uncertainties; like Eagles under 3, pending Herbert news.

  "If Herbert doesn't play, this line's going to move...So I'm going to take it now just in case." – Simon (91:12)

Notable Quotes & Banter

• On Tyrod Taylor’s ATS magic:
  "Tyrod Taylor is just consistently underrated by the market. Since 2022, he is 7-0-1 against the spread in his last eight starts." (37:46)

• On betting into classic letdown spots:
  “Half of the battle when you’re betting is to figure out when the trend is no longer the right side.” – Chad (60:50)

• On Bears euphoria:
  "Ben Johnson’s town. This is Dicka-like euphoria." – Chad (77:18)

• On Steelers/Ravens trends:
  "Since 2005, the underdog in this series 29-12-3 against the spread...if you blindly have just bet the dog in this series since 2005, you are hitting a 71% clip." – Simon (57:34)

Key Timestamps

| Segment | Timestamp | |-----------------------------------------------|------------| | Last week’s recap (Giants loss, contest) | 03:03–05:30| | New SharperSquare Contest details | 07:39–12:05| | Cowboys-Lions betting breakdown | 13:10–18:26| | Commanders-Vikings, “Simon Says” bet | 18:28–22:23| | Colts-Jaguars model debate | 22:23–28:53| | Saints-Bucs and divisional dog trend | 28:53–33:57| | Dolphins-Jets, Chat’s Choice bet | 34:15–39:19| | Titans-Browns, market/model/defense talk | 45:09–50:22| | Seahawks-Falcons, public/scheme/trends | 50:22–54:27| | Steelers-Ravens, end of a betting era? | 54:45–62:35| | Bengals-Bills, public dog alarm | 62:36–66:21| | Broncos-Raiders, “just avoid it” | 66:29–68:39| | Bears-Packers, belief vs. history | 72:15–79:04| | Rams-Cardinals, McVay dominance and trends | 79:04–84:14| | Texans-Chiefs, sharp vs public dog | 84:14–88:06| | Eagles-Chargers, playing the injury number | 88:06–91:27|

Tone & Style

Hosts banter comfortably with a mix of sharp, data-driven conviction and classic bettor’s angst (“just let me watch the Bears in peace!”). They toggle between detailed model analysis, deep-dive trends, and the eternal struggle of trusting gut over stats—delivering a fun, insightful listen for sharps and squares alike.

Endnote:
Listen to [Sharper Square] for your final five contest picks after Thursday’s injury updates. Subscribe on any major podcast platform, and join the new contest for a shot at South Florida glory!