Sharp or Square – NFL Week 14 Reactions: Bengals-Bills, Steelers-Ravens, Rams-Cardinals, Saints-Bucs, Broncos-Raiders & More

Podcast: Sharp or Square
Episode Date: December 8, 2025
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Main Theme:
Chad and Simon, betting experts and football obsessives, dive deep into the NFL Week 14 slate, breaking down key games through the lens of sharp (“wise guy”) vs. square (“public”) betting. They examine critical moments, trending teams, and what the betting lines—and on-field action—say about where the NFL is headed. The conversation is rich with stats, sharp banter, betting angles, and lessons learned (the hard way).

Episode Overview

This episode is a spirited, sometimes painful, always insightful review of Week 14’s most bet-heavy and narrative-packed NFL games, including surprise blowouts, weather games, betting heartbreaks, and moments that reinforced (or shattered) conventional betting wisdom. Chad and Simon unpack their contest picks, dissect why certain teams keep fooling them, and highlight trends and actionable insights for bettors.

Key Discussion Points & Game Breakdowns

Bears vs. Packers

Opening Banter & Heartbreak

• Chad opens with hopeful but devastated Bears-fan energy, mourning another close loss but seeing growth in rookie QB Caleb Williams:
  • “He made brilliant throws. He made gutsy throws except for that last play, which was devastating.” (03:26)
• Simon reflects on the pain and inevitability (“Vegas strikes again”):
  • “Six and a half lines right on seven. Doesn’t matter how it gets there, it always gets there somehow.” (04:01)

Contest Recap & Picks

• First week of their Hard Rock Bet-sponsored pick contest:
  • Picks: Jacksonville +2.5, Cleveland –3.5, Jets +2.5, New Orleans +8.5, Rams –9.5
  • Result: 3-2, with some picks “never really in question,” others pure pain.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts

• Jags betting angle: Early control, dominance, and a crucial injury to Colts’ Daniel Jones.
• Simon on Jacksonville as a “sleeper” in the AFC:
  • “They just dominate this Colts team. Doesn’t matter…If Trevor Lawrence is playing within this offense, you see what he can do.” (06:15–08:02)

Notable Moments:

• After Daniel Jones injury, Jonathan Taylor fumbles, Travis Etienne scores, and Chad jokes he just wants Lawrence to "stop throwing" it from there.
• Chad credits coach Liam Coen and Jacoby Myers with unlocking new routes/offensive looks.

Cleveland Browns vs. Tennessee Titans

• Browns come out flat; Titans exploit them with a ruthless run game.
• Simon bemoans betting on Tennessee:
  • “Your job is not to let me bet these damn Titan games…Whatever I say the opposite will happen.” (10:39)
• Shadour Sanders (Titans QB) amasses 364 passing yards; Tony Pollard torches Browns for 164 rushing yards.

Notable Quotes:

• Chad: “It's just. Even the Browns defense, which deserves a lot of the blame today, all of it, could not, could not stop anything. It was atrocious, honestly. Atrocious.” (13:25)
• Simon: “Tennessee bullied that Cleveland team, which was just the most shocking part of that whole game.” (13:55)

Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets

• Never in doubt for Miami; two TDs in 7 minutes, Jets’ only spark is Isaiah Williams’ punt return TD.
• Tyrod Taylor injury dooms the Jets. Miami dominates, especially on the ground.
• Simon: “Miami…ran for over 230 yards, so dominated. And that was without HN, by the way.” (17:01)

New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Saints were big underdogs (+8.5) but deliver behind gritty rookie QB Tyler Shough.
• Weather a major factor; Simon surprised by how bad Baker Mayfield looked (“14 completions out of 30 attempts, 122 yards. That’s insane how pedestrian that is.” 19:41)
• Saints’ defense steps up, and an in-division road dog trend continues: “...9-0 on the road as an underdog…just being continually undervalued in the market.” (21:27)

Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals

• The Rams steamroll, and late money on Arizona is a non-factor. Rams choose the right time to “hammer” the line.
• Simon: “McVay owns the month of December, just always gets his guys…That Rams team…they could have done whatever they wanted offensively anytime.” (24:18-25:39)
• Rams offense nearly perfect first half (330 yards, one third down, 9.2 yards/play). Stafford with three TDs, benched early in the fourth.

Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals (Game of the Week)

• Spread was 5.5 to 6, most “wise guys” on Cincinnati; crazy scoring in the fourth (34 points).
• Chad: “There are games that are drunk…then there are games that are drunk that also dipped in the alley, probably shot up some smack…” (33:25)
• Simon drops the key Joe Burrow stat: “I think it’s now 19-3 when Joe Burrow is a dog of over three or greater.” (34:22)
• Game swings:
  • Bills down 28–18, Josh Allen 50-yard TD run, Burrow pick-six, another pick, Bills take control and then a late Bengals cover.

Notable Moment:

• Chad: “Bills were down 28, 18 midway through the fourth. They had no business coming close to covering 5.5 or 6 at all. And then Josh Allen does what Josh Allen does…” (37:04)

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens

• Simon calls their Ravens pick “brass balls—more like brass brains.” (39:07)
• Steelers come out firing, Aaron Rodgers in “beast mode,” DK Metcalf huge game, Ravens look flat.
• Off-field drama in Baltimore gets discussed: Simon notes rumors swirling about Harbaugh losing the locker room.
• Mike Tomlin love/hate; fans want change, but Simon pleads for appreciation:
  • “Once again, this man's about to win a division where the quarterbacks are Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow. He’s going to win with Aaron Rodgers. Potentially.” (45:33)

Betting Angles & Team Assessments

• Green Bay Packers: Stats say they should be elite, but inconsistencies haunt them.

  • Chad: “For a team that is dominating the most important stats…they just don’t feel like a team that puts it all together…Now they’ve got two good wins…but I trust the Rams, I trust the Seahawks a lot more…” (47:54–48:58)

• NFC landscape: Rams and Seahawks feel more legitimate than Packers, but the NFC is wide open.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “There are games that are drunk, and then there are games that are drunk that also dipped into the alley, probably shot up some smack. …It was totally just completely Belushi-esque, unhinged.” – Chad Millman, on Bengals-Bills (33:25)
• “Your job is not to let me bet these damn Titans games.” – Simon (10:39)
• “Miami…ran for over 230 yards, so dominated. And that was without HN, by the way.” – Simon (17:01)
• “I remember the good old days where Red Zone was great…today there was crazy static, couldn’t listen through red zone…Shame, shame, shame on you on Red Zone…” – Simon, “Shame on You” segment (50:13)
• “Tyler Shough…The boy was not pretty…But in the second half, he was 6 of 9. He ran the ball, as you noted, 77 times for 55 yards, two touchdowns. His first two rushing touchdowns of his career…He gave the Saints the upset moneyline win.” – Chad, “Hero of the Week” (59:23)
• “I legit not only sent them an email, I sent them a handwritten letter [about RedZone commercials].” – Simon (54:06)
• “Are they going to go for two here? Because we all felt like the Bears were that playing that well. Caleb was having that big time of throws that they were going to score with whatever 20 seconds left. But yeah, it’s big, big time. Step up by the defense to get that turnover that has really saved Green Bay a lot of games this year.” – Simon (50:04)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [03:26] Bears heartbreak and contest picks
• [06:15] Jaguars-Colts breakdown ("sleeper" Jags)
• [10:39] Titans-Browns misery/Simon’s Titans rule
• [15:38] Dolphins-Jets blowout, Miami’s dominance
• [19:31] Saints-Buccaneers: weather, rookie heroics
• [24:18] Rams-Cardinals: McVay in December
• [33:25] Bengals-Bills: wildest game of the week
• [39:07] Steelers-Ravens: a total miss, Tomlin debate
• [47:54] Packers-Bears: Packers are an enigma
• [50:13] “Shame on You” segment
• [59:23] “Hero of the Week” (Tyler Shough)

Heroes & Goats

Hero of the Week

• Tyler Shough (Saints QB)
  • “Gave the Saints the upset moneyline win…You deserve your Epsom salt bath tonight, old man.” – Chad (59:23)
• Honorable mention: JJ McCarthy (Vikings rookie QB) for a comeback shutout of Washington.

Shame of the Week

• NFL RedZone (commercial overload, glitches)
• Cleveland Browns D (“Shame on you, Cleveland Browns rushing defense. …Have some freaking pride.” – Chad)

Early Leans for NFL Week 15

• Bills (-1.5) at Patriots: Chad leans Patriots, Simon leans Bills—debates inexperience vs. Allen December magic.
• Bucs (-4.5) vs. Falcons: Both hosts like Bucs, wary of low spread and pro money’s love for Atlanta.
• Rams (-4.5) vs. Lions: Eyeing Rams if line holds; public narrative watch on Jared Goff as underdog.
• Vikings (+6) at Cowboys: Simon considers Vikings with a big spread.

Recap of Actionable Betting Wisdom

• Don’t fall in love with your own process to the point you ignore trends—sometimes, dogs are just the side (Bengals, Titans).
• No more betting Titans (personal rule, Simon)!
• Sometimes, late-week leans are gold; early-week likes lose steam.
• McVay in December and oddsmaker respect for Saints as divisional dogs—ride the trends unless something massive changes.

Closing Thoughts

The NFL slate is wild, trends get smashed and reborn weekly, and being a sharp (or a square) is sometimes just a coin flip away. But with humor, humility, and relentless stat-tracking, Chad and Simon guide listeners through the labyrinth—win, lose, or push.

Find the episode on YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and more.