Sharp or Square – NFL Week 15 Bets (Dec 9, 2025)

Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Podcast: Sharp or Square (iHeartPodcasts & The Volume)

Overview

In this packed Week 15 episode, betting veteran Chad Millman and pro gambler Simon Hunter break down the entire NFL slate. They evaluate matchups from every angle—weather, trends, stats, injuries, and market movement—to decide whether a side is "sharp" (wiseguy value) or "square" (public trap). The duo battle betting fatigue and rough beats from a wild NFL season, highlight cold-weather impacts, and debate sharp lines versus gut feelings, providing listeners with nuanced takes for every major game.

Key Discussion Points

Opening (02:29–06:12)

• Monday Night Recap: Simon laments a brutal Eagles loss as bettors and as fans. Chad jokes about the public reveling in Eagles misery after recent team success.
  • Chad: "It's not a safe space. This is what the people want. They love miserable Eagles fans." (03:22)
  • Discussion around Jalen Hurts’s meltdown, four interceptions, and the pain of coin-flip losses.
• State of the Eagles: Absence of Lane Johnson, exhaustion from “Hard Knocks” coverage, and being “as low as it gets.”
  • "If Lane Johnson comes back, maybe things change, but right now? It’s as low as it gets." (04:24, Chad)

“Sharp or Square” Bets Breakdown

Thursday Night Football: Falcons @ Buccaneers (06:35–09:39)

• Line Movement: Falcons keep getting pro support despite injuries, line drops from 5.5 to 4.
• Chad's Stance: Leaning Bucs in a "chowder" game with more to play for.
  • "I'll be on the chalk side here on Thursday and the Bucs." (08:25, Chad)
• Simon’s Note: Bucs as favorites on short rest hasn't historically punished bettors.

Chargers @ Chiefs (09:39–16:44)

• Chiefs’ Offense: Mahomes as lone bright spot, no reliable weapons, injuries piling up.
  • Simon: "Kansas City...about 47% ATS in division as favorites. And that was when they were good." (11:41)
  • Chad: "If they don't win this game 20-3...I wouldn't be shocked because they've been so bad." (13:47)
• Debate: Lean Chargers for value, but Chad expects pros to buy low on Chiefs after hitting bottom.

Jets @ Jaguars (17:10–21:45)

• QB Uncertainty: Jets injuries make betting them tough. Jaguars seen as strong but are big favorites.
• Simon: "If it's Fields, actually, that's a good number for Fields against this Jags team." (18:37)
• Chad: Leans Jags but might talk himself into the Jets as the week progresses. Weather and receiver Jacoby Myers's impact discussed.

Bills @ Patriots (21:48–27:22)

• Line Dynamics: NE moves from +1.5 to +1 despite a “fraudulent” winning streak.
  • Chad: "The pros believe in your team, which I am truly shocked by." (26:27)
• Josh Allen in Cold: Bills built for the winter, Allen’s playoff edge; line may flip to Bills as underdogs.
• Simon’s Worry: Pats’ O-line issues could hurt them in freezing weather.

Cardinals @ Texans (27:22–31:38)

• Buy Low/Sell High Spot: Arizona seen as a live big dog, especially if the line goes to +10.
  • Chad: "These are the games we get in trouble with...but if it hits ten, I'm going to hammer that number." (30:43)
• Texans Bounceback: Emotional letdown after huge win over the Chiefs is expected.

Bengals @ Ravens (37:17–39:58)

• Public vs. Models: Model sees Bengals as value (should be a pick), but both hosts feel “tricked” by the Ravens despite locker room drama.
  • Simon: "It just feels too popular to bet the Bengals and I don’t want to be popular." (39:32)

Browns @ Bears (40:03–42:57)

• Big Number Analysis: Increasing line (now @ 7.5) makes the Browns a sharp play, but Bears trusted in freezing wind.
• Chicago Cold Factor: Field conditions might benefit the Bears, but “too tough to trust either team.” (42:57, Simon)
  • Simon: "It's going to be zero, right? That's what I mean. There's a big freeze coming." (42:41)

Raiders @ Eagles & Ref Rant (44:14–51:52)

• Raiders’ Endgame Field Goal: Internet uproar over “rigged” ending; debate over NFL officiating.
  • "This is not an integrity problem. These games aren't fixed...if the NFL wanted to fix games, they wouldn't focus on the Broncos and Raiders." (44:57, Simon)
  • Chad: "You needed three really stupid things to happen at the end of that game to lose that bet." (46:36)
• Call for Expedited Reviews: Both call for broader replay intervention from New York to fix officiating errors.

Giants @ Commanders (51:52–53:22)

• Luck Rankings: Giants the unluckiest team per Nick Giffen; Commanders another buy low, sell high candidate.
  • Both acknowledge sharp side is likely Commanders +2, but "don’t want to bet it with real money." (53:07, Chad)

Lions @ Rams (53:22–57:22)

• Injury Accumulation: Lions’ banged-up secondary, Rams surging on both sides.
  • Chad: "I really love this Rams team for just a bunch of different matchups...I just love watching this Rams team so much. Everything is just clicking." (54:35)
  • Simon: "I feel like this is a very nice number in a nice spot...I am going to unload on the Rams." (57:16)
• Revenge Angle: Goff and Stafford face old teams. Rams seen as one of the podcast’s strongest plays.

Panthers @ Saints (61:08–64:36)

• Simon Says Best Bet: Saints +2.5; Panthers as rare road favorites with heavy public support—seen as a fade opportunity.
  • Simon: "Simon says...New Orleans Saints +2.5. It's just an automatic. Bryce Young as a road favorite—never happened before." (64:19)

Packers @ Broncos (64:53–68:12)

• Chad’s Choice: Packers. Both see Green Bay as rolling at the right time, with superior defense and experience.
  • Chad: "We can't run from who we are. Sharp dudes can just see it." (65:33)
  • Simon: "If you like the Packers like we do, I would definitely get in now and grab the two before it moves." (66:45)

Titans @ 49ers (68:12–69:52)

• Titans: Permanent Mystery: Hosts refuse to bet, acknowledging past failures to read Titans right.
  • Chad: "I am wrong on every time with this game. And if you have been following the trend. Hammer. Hammer. Tennessee." (69:52)

Colts @ Seahawks (69:52–73:21)

• QB Disaster: Potential for Philip Rivers to return at age 44 sparks media outrage.
  • Chad: "This is criminal. To put a man like that back on the field at 44…It’s like marching a man to his death and celebrating it." (72:32)
• No Bet Zone: Unless Rivers surprisingly starts, both avoid Colts.

Vikings @ Cowboys (73:43–74:58)

• Pro Money Flows: Early movement down to 5.5 signals sharp support for Vikings.
  • Simon: "The pros are going to be on Minnesota. The early money is." (74:52)
  • Chad: "I like Minnesota...defensively, I think they’ll get stops, and KFC [Kevin O’Connell] will scheme up something." (74:15)

Dolphins @ Steelers (75:19–78:23)

• Cold Weather Concern: Miami’s run game now the backbone, Tommy's record as a favorite.
  • Simon: "The freeze has scared me off because we’ve just talked about how horrible Tua’s record is [in cold]." (77:05)
  • "But maybe the cheat code is: just let De’von Achane run. Maybe I’m overthinking it." (77:05, Chad)
  • Lean toward Miami +3.5, but grudging respect for Tomlin as a home dog.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Chad on Gambling Heartbreak: “I just need to sleep, honestly. I watched that game, worked through the night, and I try to focus…but there isn't a minute that goes by you're just like, why did they just throw that pass in overtime?” (05:03)
• Simon on NFL "Rigs": “This is not an integrity problem. These games aren't fixed. If the NFL wanted to fix games, they wouldn't focus on the Broncos and Raiders...they'd fix games for the Chiefs and Cowboys.” (44:57)
• Chad on Rams: “I just love watching this Rams team so much. Everything is just clicking.” (54:35)
• Simon on Freezing Conditions: "It's going to be zero, right? That's what I mean. There's a big freeze coming." (42:41)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Eagles-Chargers Recap: 02:29–06:12
• Falcons-Bucs: 06:35–09:39
• Chargers-Chiefs: 09:39–16:44
• Jets-Jaguars: 17:10–21:45
• Bills-Patriots: 21:48–27:22
• Cards-Texans: 27:22–31:38
• Ravens-Bengals: 37:17–39:58
• Browns-Bears: 40:03–42:57
• Raiders-Eagles & Ref Outrage: 44:14–51:52
• Giants-Commanders: 51:52–53:22
• Lions-Rams: 53:22–57:22
• Saints-Panthers: 61:08–64:36
• Packers-Broncos: 64:53–68:12
• Titans-49ers: 68:12–69:52
• Colts-Seahawks: 69:52–73:21
• Vikings-Cowboys: 73:43–74:58
• Dolphins-Steelers: 75:19–78:23
• Favorite Bets Recap: 78:47–79:54

Podcast Favorites Recap

Strong Leans / Early Circle Picks

• Rams -5 over Lions (54:35, Chad; "I am going to unload on the Rams." – 57:16, Simon)
• Saints +2.5 (Simon says best bet, 64:19)
• Packers -2 best of "Chad’s Choice" (64:53–68:12)
• Buy low/monitor: Cardinals if line hits +10, Bengals if number improves.

Tone & Style

The hosts keep a sharp, data-driven focus on betting insights but infuse the show with raw fan frustration, gallows humor, and real-world cold-weather wisdom for NFL wagering. Their banter, playful jabs, and honest self-doubt about tough teams (Titans!) make for easy listening that's both analytical and entertaining.

Summary

This episode is a must-listen for sports bettors: expert breakdowns on every meaningful Week 15 matchup, reflections on betting psychology and streaks, and hard-won tips for navigating sharp vs. square pitfalls—all delivered with humor, edge, and a lived-in weariness every bettor will recognize.