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Sharp or Square
NFL Week 15 Bets: Falcons-Buccaneers, Bills-Patriots, Lions-Rams, Packers-Broncos, Vikings-Cowboys and more
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- [00:00]
Chad Millman
This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.
- [00:06]
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- [01:33]
Chad Millman
Hey Jason Timf here. The NBA on Prime is back with an exciting week of Emirates NBA cup action. The knockout rounds begin with quarterfinal double.
- [01:40]
Show Me Something Advertiser
Headers on Tuesday and Wednesday night.
- [01:42]
Chad Millman
Then it's the semifinal doubleheader on Saturday and it all culminates with the championship.
- [01:47]
Show Me Something Advertiser
Game next Tuesday night only on Prime. If you're not a Prime member, sign.
- [01:51]
Chad Millman
Up to get a 30 day free trial to get started today.
- [01:54]
Show Me Something Advertiser
Restrictions apply. See Amazon.com Amazon prime for details.
- [01:59]
Chad Millman
Running a business is hard enough.
- [02:01]
Simon Hunter
Don't make it harder with a dozen apps that don't talk to each other.
- [02:04]
Chad Millman
One for sales, another for inventory, a separate one for accounting.
- [02:08]
Simon Hunter
That's software overload. Odoo is the all in one platform that replaces them all.
- [02:13]
Chad Millman
CRM, Accounting, Inventory, E Commerce, hr. Fully integrated, easy to use and built to grow with your business. Thousands of our already made the switch. Why not you try Odoo for free at o d o o.com that's odoo.com.
- [02:30]
Simon Hunter
Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock Bat. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the square sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined as Always by my co host, my companion, my compadre professional, better Simon Hunter and hello, Simon.
- [02:55]
Chad Millman
Chad. How we doing, buddy?
- [02:57]
Simon Hunter
Well, listen, I really want to ask how you're doing because I was on the Eagles last night and it was excruciating. But I know how I felt when the Bears played valiantly and didn't win.
- [03:13]
If the Bears had played terribly and given it away, I know how I would feel. So this is a safe space. Unload my friend.
- [03:23]
Chad Millman
It's not a safe space. This is what the people want. They love miserable Eagles fans. I know you sick bastards.
- [03:31]
I get it though. I mean we've been in all these prime time games and like, you know, they're zooming in on these Eagles fans who are just dying like I am. And I get it. Like we, you should bask in our misery. We just won the Super Bowl. But.
- [03:45]
Yeah, just an awful, awful experience. Especially if you had money on the Eagles. They just dominated that game in every way. Just couldn't, couldn't stop doing whatever they wanted. Running the game, running the ball. Defensively, the only weakness was Jalen Hurts, who just had a total meltdown of a game. Four picks and yeah, like we joked, obviously I said Jalen Hurts is the second best quarterback in the NFL. I still stand by it, but heard a lot of noise last night because he had a meltdown. Terrible game. And you know, I, I still think the read on I was correct. I mean, Herbert, 12 of 26, 139 yards and he just only could hold the ball in one hand anytime you scramble. And they were punching at it every time like they just were. The Chargers were dying to lose that game and Hertz just couldn't help himself. So incredible game for professionals. I was with a lot of pros who loved the Chargers. I think a lot of books went from two and a half all the way down to one by kick. Yeah, and they're all over the under and they needed every bit of those four picks to get that under. And that went on the Chargers. So yeah, that was a, that was a sharp game and just a brutal, brutal loss as an Eagles fan. So in there right now, and even worse, I told you HBO right now has a basic in season hard knocks. And I can't watch it because it's just been two weeks of hell for Eagles. We were 8 and 2 heading into the Hard Knocks. We are now 8 and 5, losing three straight games and it's just, it's as low as it gets. But the Cowboys are breathing down their necks. It's gonna be really interesting in those next four weeks.
- [05:19]
Simon Hunter
Why can't they block up any scheme to get Saquon Barkley, any, any freedom on any of these interior runs?
- [05:29]
Chad Millman
They're out Lane Johnson for multiple weeks and they've lost those three games. He's been out so talk all the time. He's very important. But, you know, they were winning coin flip games. They lost Dallas, a coin flip game they should have won. They lost this Chargers game, a coin flip game they probably should have won. So it's like once again, Eagles do have a lot of problems, but they could easily be sitting here 11 and 3 and it's like, you know, what are you gonna about? So it's football. It's just, it's these coin flip games and they're just not hitting right now. I just need to sleep. Honestly. I'm just watch that game, work through the night and I try to focus on my work, but there isn't a minute that goes by. You're just like, why did they just throw that past that overtime? Like, that pick was just so egregious. It's just, yeah, I just need to move on from that game. Unfortunately, I haven't been able to yet.
- [06:12]
Simon Hunter
Well, we went 3 and 2 last week. In our five favorite picks from our Sunday morning show. You can track all those picks in the Sharper Square contest. Hopefully you've all signed up for that. We won. I can't even remember who did we win with? We won with the Saints. We won with the Rams. We won with the Colts. We lost with the jets and the Browns.
- [06:36]
I'm sorry, we went with the Jacks. That's right. Against the Colts. Thanks to the thousands and thousands of you who did sign up, the launch has been a huge success. So all thanks to you for the year. 39, 31 through 14 weeks. And our five favorite picks. This is our Tuesday show. We're going to review the entire slate. We will nail down the final five in the Sunday morning show. We'll make those decisions after line moves, after injury updates, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. We make as late as we can so we can be part of the fun process with all of you the rest of this season. Don't forget, you can watch that show on Sharper Square on YouTube Sunday mornings. All right, Thursday Night Football. Fading teams here. Atlanta out of the playoffs, playing for nothing at this point. Who knows who's going to be the coach? Who knows who's going to be the gm? Who knows who's going to Be the quarterback. They're four point dogs to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who ever since Baker Mayfield kind of got injured, they have not been the same team. They're 7 to 6, still in first place in the NFC South. But the Panthers are coming for. Meanwhile, the wise guys are just clinging to the Falcons by their fingernails. This line has moved from five and a half to four and a half to four at Hard Rock. Even after getting blown out with betting the Falcons against Seattle with no Drake London. Drake London is not expected to play this week either. It doesn't make any sense to me. I know you don't want to bet the Bucks, but like this team is clearly playing one dimensional football in Atlanta on a losing team without Drake London. Why does everyone keep betting the Falcons?
- [08:26]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I think it's just their models maybe keep thinking the Falcons are undervalued and underrated and we've been talking about it. I just. Anytime you win with Kirk, it feels like you've gotten away with one this year. He just looks so bad. And taking away the number one target on this offense is just really killed their offense. So yeah, this, this Bucks line, it's, it's fishy. I honestly can't, can't get why it's going the other way because they might be getting back Worth and Mike Evans and you know that's, that's a huge deal to this offense. So I'll take an early position here especially now at the Ford Hard Rock. I'll grab them this Buck side on the Thursday night home game. And Atlanta, you know, last week they just got absolutely bullied in a lot of ways. And you know, with Kirk in there, it just feels like on a short week playing that type of physical game they just had with Seattle. Couldn't ask for a worse spot for them going against this Bucks team that just had a horrible, horrible loss. So you expect Baker and the guys on this Bucs team to bounce back in a big way. Spencer, especially against this poorest Atlantic team like we've talked about. They just offensively you would think with Robinson they'll be able to take huge advantages right of this Bucks run defense. But you've seen it. Teams are just stacked. The boxes are like beat us with Kirk, you're not beating us with Bijan. So I'll be on the chalk side here on the Thursday and the Bucs.
- [09:40]
Simon Hunter
It hasn't hurt us betting chalk Thursday nights historically in these home division games, short week team with something to play for for sure in Tampa Bay Los Angeles Chargers who should have Lost last night. They should be 8 and 5 visiting the Kansas City Chiefs 6 and 7, clinging to playoff hopes. Look, that Chargers team, you almost feel bad for Justin Herbert. They're winning by guts and guile. They're winning by the other team making mistakes. They, they're winning on fluky plays, lucky penalties, calls. That game was probably over. They were going to fourth down deep in their own territory with less than two minutes left. And Quinyan Mitchell gets called for a pass interference on a third and 10. And all of a sudden after that, it gives the Chargers a little bit of life. Then Justin Herbert starts running these RPOs and running around the edge and all of a sudden they get back into position to tie the game. Then they win the game with Cameron Dicker. Oh, by the way, that Jake Elliott miss after the interception.
- [10:52]
Chad Millman
Oh, our one touchdown pass in the first half is, happens to be a holding call. Holding call. I don't even get, I don't. That's why I want to go to the refs, because I could just spend five minutes of wasted time. I can't get over how bad the refs are. It's just so terrible.
- [11:05]
Simon Hunter
I got. Well, you know what, you know what? I want to get to the refs, but I want, I want to wait until the Raiders game because I have a lot of thoughts on the, the Internet kerfuffle going around about was this game rigged? And all the people who lost money on the Raiders covering against the Broncos at seven and a half and eight and a half. I got a lot of thoughts on this. We'll share them when we get to the Raiders. I have thoughts on how to fix it. We'll have a long conversation about it. Kansas City as a three or better favorite at home with Patrick Mahomes in the division, about 47% against the spread.
- [11:41]
Chad Millman
And that was when they were good.
- [11:43]
Simon Hunter
And that was when they were good. They don't have downfield threats. They don't really have an explosive running game right now. Patrick Mahomes is their only offensive weapon who was reliable. They're playing without defensive tackle, offensive tackles. And then this week another guy got hurt. So I don't want to bet on either of these teams because neither of them are very reliable.
- [12:08]
But I would lean Chargers if I, if someone said to me I'm in a pick every game, I would pick the Chargers.
- [12:14]
Chad Millman
Interesting. Yeah, I, I, I, I really like the Chiefs again, like last week, I, I, I was on them, but everything we talked about just them losing their offensive tackles. There was just didn't make sense. And we joked before the show the pros had bet that up to five. So every week the professionals are hitting this chief side. I feel like this is the week. Everyone's just going to leave this Chiefs team for dead, aren't they? No. No one's going to believe in this chief team now. They're just totally over. I think they're 50 to 1 for or maybe it's gone up. It might be 60 to 1 now for them. Super bowl, which makes sense, right? That just the path for them to make the playoffs.
- [12:52]
Simon Hunter
16%.
- [12:54]
Chad Millman
Not even that. If you're in real life, it feels like it's like 5%. It's just they have to be what they were in the past, which a team that wins close games. And this year they're just not that team. I mean, Andy Reid, it's coaching male practice. Like you, you had that Houston game. Like your defense in the second half. I think C.J. was over seven at that point. You're just dominating, dominating.
- [13:15]
Simon Hunter
I went to, honest to God, I had the Texans in that game. You and I were not on the same side in that game. I had the Texans. I went to bed at halftime. I'm like, after that first drive, like Chris Jones started to dominate. I'm like, I'm done. I'm not wasting my time on this.
- [13:30]
Chad Millman
Yeah, it was just, it lined up and then just, you know, Andy Reid following my homes, letting him go for that play and just all very bizarre. And that totally flipped the game. Right. They got a touchdown, I think CJ on that exact turnover on downs. And you know, props to Houston. But this Chiefs team.
- [13:47]
We'Ve, we've had to hit a point where they're going to start coming back with value on the other side. I mean, this is just insane how many weeks in a row they've let down. So I feel like matchup wise, this is a great matchup for them. You have Herbert outdoors and once again, 10 degrees. Like we're in a deep cold. A lot of these games we're about to talk about today, they're all going to be a freezing temperature. It doesn't matter if they're 1 o' clock or 4 o'. Clock. Anywhere from New Jersey to Kansas City, it's all going to be like 10 degrees this upcoming weekend. So Herbert outside one handed. I feel like, okay, they got away with the indoors in that environment. He was horrible. I gave you the stats. He was horrible. Passing one pick, two fumbles. He lost one of the fumbles. Like he Just was bad overall in the game, but he got away with it because, you know, he's a great athlete with his legs and the. Just the Eagles gave it to him. So this, this has to be a spot you back the Chiefs and they, they cover and win. Like if they don't win this game 20 to 3, just absolutely dominate with Spags defense. I wouldn't be shocked because they've been so bad this year. But the Chiefs feels like they've had everything going wrong these last couple of weeks. It's going to turn around for them. They're just, like you said, as bad as they've looked. It's not really Alma Homes he's played pretty well. He's just trying to survive how bad this offense is right now. So I think they bounce back here. But I get it. You're just. You're like everyone else. It's hard to be confident in this Chiefs team. They've just been awful these last five weeks.
- [15:06]
Simon Hunter
They just can't seem to get the ball down the field like any of the magic they had. Forget about any refs issues, forget about sort of the, the close game issues or the regression to the mean on what happened last year. They're just offensively challenged. They don't have the weapons and so their offense is limited to just whatever Mahomes can do in the shortest amount of time possible because he has no protection and so they can't get the ball downfield. And even when they can, the receivers aren't that great. So they got a little bit of.
- [15:42]
Chad Millman
The drops right now. Like that game he was getting the guys the balls, they were just dropping like Kelsey. You know, people are killing the guy because he's having these horrible drops and I get it. But it's like, what do you want my homes to do? He always goes to Kelsey on third downs, right? So he's gonna live and die with it. Like that pick, that's totally on Kelsey. He knows that. And you know, people are killing Kelsey right now and you know, the whole. I mean, I don't know where you're at with it, but I agree Gronk is probably the better athlete. But as a tight end, I think Kelsey's had the longer career. They're the same age. Gronk has been retired for like five years. So as much you want to kill Kelsey, he's an old man. He's still doing it. You know, he's obviously lost a step here. But that pick, I don't know if that's on age. That's Just a fluke play. But yeah it's once again it. The vibes could not be like, like the Eagles. It could not be low for this Chiefs team. Is this not rock bottom like if this.
- [16:32]
Simon Hunter
Well look. Yes it could be. There's always those games that are the buy low sell high. Right. And we've couple of them on the slate today. The Chargers coming off that win the way they did and the Chiefs coming.
- [16:44]
Chad Millman
Off the loss over time too for.
- [16:47]
Simon Hunter
The Chargers could easily be. Could easily a buy be a buy low, sell high.
- [16:51]
Arby's Advertiser
So.
- [16:52]
Simon Hunter
All right, maybe you're turning my head.
- [16:54]
Chad Millman
I'll get you. Because there's a lot of cold weather games where it's like that's, that's going to be an absolute. You have a one handed QB in 10 degree weather that is who could.
- [17:04]
Simon Hunter
Barely play in like basically indoors.
- [17:08]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [17:09]
Simon Hunter
You know, in a control environment.
- [17:11]
Chad Millman
Couldn't grip the ball. It's crazy.
- [17:12]
Simon Hunter
The New York jets visiting the Jacksonville Jaguars. They are 11 and a half point favorite Simon. The Jaguars are. In case there's any confusion about who would be the favorites in this game, the AFC south leading Jacksonville Jaguars.
- [17:33]
Interestingly, the line has moved from 12 and a half to 11 and a half. As you can imagine in a game between the trash team that just broke our hearts and the division leading team that also just helped us win. I spent yesterday digging into the weeds desperately looking for ways to find to bet the trash team. I'm surprised the number has moved in their direction already because I really couldn't get behind anything until I had a better understanding of who the quarterback was going to be. Tyrod Taylor left the game against the Dolphins with a groin injury. Justin Fields was already out of the game and not on the roster that day or not in uniform that day because of an injured knee. That meant Brady Cook, undrafted free agent from Missouri who came in, fumbled his first snap, threw a pick in the red zone at the end of half. At the end of the first half. He's the only guy we know for sure can play quarterback. I'm not inclined to bet against the Jags if I don't know who the jets quarterback is going to be.
- [18:38]
Chad Millman
Yeah, right. That's, that's the tough part here. It's. I wanted to be on the jets like you but if we have to make a pick day in your pick pools and you know you can't get to our Thursday show and I'm stuck here and I got to make a pick here this week as well today I'm gonna end up taking The Jaguars, just in case it is the backup to, you know, Taylor. But if it's fields, this is actually. I don't know. I know we all, we're all out on fields, but this is technically a good, good number, right. To be on fields against this Jaguars team. That's just a ton of points to cover for a Jaguars team that we've talked about. They have lived up to it. They've been a really good team this year, but they usually play well against good teams and kind of falter against bad teams. Right. That's always been their M.O. so tricky line. I'm. Like I said, if I had to take it right now, I'll take the Jaguars. But I could see my. I could see talking myself into this jets team Cup Sunday, but just for a few pennies. I just have no faith in that side.
- [19:29]
Simon Hunter
The real difference for the Jags has been Jacoby Myers. Like he, he. I know it sounds crazy to say that, but he's just completely changed that offense. He's exactly the kind of receiver that Liam Code needs to make everything else work. He makes Trevor Lawrence comfortable throwing in the middle of the field. He puts Brian Thomas Jr. On the outside so he can just go deep and not have to be the guy with alligator arms running through the middle of the field. It's just been a sort of magic little wand that has changed the game for the Jaguars and made them a more interesting team.
- [20:05]
I love that this week. I know you've done a lot of work over the last 24, 36 hours. Everyone keeps talking about how this might have been Trevor Lawrence's best game with Liam Cohn. And I keep looking at it and he was great. He had some great throws and did everything he was supposed to do.
- [20:19]
Chad Millman
I think just because of the weather, I give him that that could be true because the elements too.
- [20:23]
Simon Hunter
I was going to say he still only completed about 55% of his.
- [20:26]
Chad Millman
Right. Yeah. So. And you know, we've. We've talked a lot about this Jags team and you know, they as much proud as you want to give the Myers, it's why once again we hated the Travis Hunter pick. Like you can. You can find guys like him. You can't find, you know, a guy like Mason Graham who's just been an absolute animal for Cleveland. Like there's just. That's why you take those exact guys. I know I do part Abdu Carter has not lived up to the hype. Right. For the Giants. He's been really disappointing this year and we've heard All I've heard about what happened with him off field and all that nonsense about him getting bench, but Travis Hunter at that pick, it just will never make sense. And this gm as much as props people are going to give him for this season, it's not like he put this team together really. Right. Did he go get the coach or did the owner go throw a bag of the guy? So I, Liam Cohen just. We always talk about how big of a difference coaches make. You're living it with the Bears right now. He was, there was a reason that the Bucks offered him insane amount of money to stay at the Roc and they were so bitter when he left. So it's, it's crazy what this man has done. Turn around this, this Jaguars team. And yeah, like we said, old Jags, they always lose this game. Maybe this is the new era. So I'm going to put my money behind them just in case it's a rookie on the road here for this jets team that quarterback.
- [21:45]
Simon Hunter
Duhall.
- [21:49]
Buffalo at New England. New England is a one point underdog on the road or at home right now. Winners of 10 straight. Look, all the conversations are that this is a fraudulent winning streak. They've only been three winning teams in this 10 game streak. Not their problem. You got to beat who's in front of you, right? Like they can't help it. What the schedule is good for them that they went out and hired Mike Vrabel. We just talked about how important the coaches are. They went out and got the best coach available, especially the best coach available for their roster. With a quarterback who is developing into his second year. He is one of the reasons why Drake May has turned into the MVP candidate along with Matthew Stafford. So what's interesting in this game is that the money or the tickets at least are moving this from one and a half to one. I kind of want to be on the Bills, but I want to see where the money is going and I want to see where this ends up before I rush into it. Because if I can get the Bills as an underdog or get this game at pick, what am I rushing for? Josh Allen.
- [22:54]
Chad Millman
Josh Allen. You ever get nervous before games? Sometimes. What do you do if you get nervous? Put some soft music on. Then I throw up. Yeah, Fun game. That could flip. And people can spot now these teams miles away and everyone can agree on it. Like we did with the Patriots. Right. I feel like everyone talked about it for four or five months, how they had an easy schedule. You expect Drake May to take that next step. But no One first saw this a legit number one seed and that's what's so interesting here. Chaz. I've talked to some pros and they are on this Patriots side. They really like this Patriot side. And for early money here, I know some guys who have taken positions on the one and a half. Most I've talked to, they've taken the seven and a half. Right. They've just put into teasers like this is this to me is why this number could come down to a pick which we have not had this season. Right. We've, I feel like we've not had a game I don't finish up pick. It's always the plus one, plus one and a half or half even. I want to be on the Bills. I'm trying to be patient to see if it does flip. But I can just take a position on them as a dog here because I think the public might come in and join them, the professionals on the Patriots. I just, you know, as much as crap we want to give this Patriots team how easy of schedule they've had, this Bills team has not done anything to make you super confident about them other than the fact that they have Josh Allen. Like, that's just, that's where it starts and ends for me in this game where I really, when I broke, broke it down and looked more into it. It's like this is actually a pretty good matchup for this Patriots team. Like, I, I, I could see how these professionals are taking a position because it's like they're, they're able to throw the blinders on here. Josh Allen, I can't do that. The fact that Josh already lost to them this year, you're, you're in a spot now where I've been talking about this cold. It is coming, people. There is going to be a deep freeze and this is another game up in New England. It's going to be cold, cold, cold. So that means it's going to be a ton of Josh Allen running the ball and a ton of Cook, which on the flip side, they have their own, you know, little version of Josh Allen with May who can run the ball. I just don't think they're going to play that way offensively. I think they're still going to try to be pushing the ball downfield. So really, really interesting to see what McDaniels does with May here and then Justin Till making this game because it could be cold, could be really windy and freezing and a little bit of snow, and I just once again lines up For Josh Allen, who's played in these exact spots a lot, and he tends to thrive in it. So I, I love, love this, this game. This is one of my favorite games this week because it's, it's so split between professionals. And I'm interested what the public does with it because right now, like you said, the tickets, the money, it's so even. We've not really seen the public ticket stand here, and I'm hoping they come on the Patriot side. So maybe we get the Buffalo Bills as a dog here.
- [25:25]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, the, the Patriots have had some offensive line issues as of late. That, that could be an issue, especially when you're trying to run the ball with a new offensive line. They've only had one game together, really, before the bye. So there are some challenges. They are imperfect. So are the Bills. We know that. But what the Bills have done the past couple years is just completely transformed their offense into a running offense. And like, it's stuff that the Chiefs haven't done. And so the Bills are built to survive in cold weather where it's going to come down to Josh Allen and what he can do with his legs and how they can run the ball.
- [26:10]
Everyone should remember to get their faucets, you know, just a little trickle so your pipes don't freeze. It's really important because I've had my pipes freeze and it's been ugly here.
- [26:20]
Chad Millman
In the Northeast and I just. People, once again, I can't get over this. If you're a Patriots fan, where.
- [26:28]
The. The pros believe in your team, which I, I am truly shocked by. I really thought this was going to be a two and a half, three number on this Bills team. And they've totally come in and backed their team early here. So, you know, if this was my team, I'd be very excited because, you know, you're 11 and two here. You win this, it's over. Right? They've locked up the division.
- [26:45]
Simon Hunter
Yes.
- [26:46]
Chad Millman
Game. So it's really interesting, as you said here on Tuesday, the fact of the early money has been the Patriots. But I'm dug in. I believe Josh Allen, Bills, he ain't dead yet. I think he's gonna give him one last fight here.
- [26:58]
Simon Hunter
For the record, as of right now, it's supposed to be low 30s, but it could be 15. But right now, six days out, whatever it is, the temperature at game time is supposed to be very low 30s.
- [27:13]
Chad Millman
Yeah, yeah. I got a weather guy, he said he claims he's pretty good. He claims there's gonna be a big, big Freeze coming. So it's gonna be really cold on the east coast for a lot of these games.
- [27:22]
Simon Hunter
Well, Sunday's not my dog walking day because I'm so busy working, so going to get out of that one. Arizona at Houston. Houston is a nine and a half point favorite. Simon. The only time the Cardinals have been blown out this year has been when they played teams in the NFC West. Literally every other game has been four points or less. And arguably.
- [27:46]
The game against the Rams last week was the low point. It was at home for the Cardinals. Unlike their game against the Niners, unlike their game against the Seahawks. They could not blame turnovers and flukes in the first 15 minutes of the game that put them behind the eight ball for their loss. They just got dominated and decimated at every turn. They were just terrible to the point where the Rams had their backups in. You know, with a quarter left, this thing started moving on Sunday night from 7 and a half to 9 and a half with the majority of the back, the books, the tickets on Houston right now. Makes sense.
- [28:26]
They could get some players back. Marvin Harrison Jr. Could come back. Trey Benson, the running back who's been out since week four, could come back. They could get some help back on the offensive line. The Cardinals. I mean.
- [28:40]
Am I crazy to say this is a buy low sell high on the Cardinals?
- [28:45]
Chad Millman
No, but again, it's. These are the, this is that game we get in trouble with because obviously when I first saw it, I loved it as well, too. It's like Arizona, this exact type of games, they backdoor and stay in it. Where the Houston, they're not a juggernaut of an offense. Like, they're not.
- [28:59]
Simon Hunter
No.
- [28:59]
Chad Millman
They're not comparable to these other offenses that have rolled and blown out this Arizona team. So I, I'm with you. It's my, my biggest issue is like, can we, can we see the scenario where we get burned here? Because it's obviously a really bad Arizona team that is horrible defensively and they could be burned here by Marks and C.J. and all the things that we think Houston could do offensively, of course, but I think it's a nice spot they got. We have a Houston team that just slayed the Demon, the Chiefs. Like this is. If you read anything leading up to that game. Houston, basically, it circled this one all year because of that playoff loss and they were just so fired up about that game. And like we said, it doesn't really feel like they won that game. It feels like they got it. They did. But it's Like a little bit of gifted to them. They stole that game in many ways and this is being priced into it. Like you said, this numbers moved two points. They. Their books are bracing for a ton of teasers, all of it coming on this Texans team. So right now, one book, one of the more public books has already hit 10. So that's why, like people, I think you might be able to be patient here. Yeah, you might be able to get to the tens here on Cardinals. And at that number, I got no issue, no issue taking this Cardinals team. So I'm already dreading it. This. I already can see our future come Sunday. Ten and a half in contest. Can't. Can't avoid that because we've just seen a Jacoby Brissette, his offense, you know, even against good defense, he tends to move the ball. And when, you know he's playing dead for two or three quarters, he does eventually come to life for two or three drives and moves the ball. So it's, it's, it's a tough, tough, tough bet, Chad, where it's like, I can't avoid it. I knew I was going to like it as soon as I saw it. And the fact that it's moved so much once it hits that 10 number like it is right now, as soon as we get off this call, I'm going to go hammer that number.
- [30:44]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, we kind of have to. Like I said, there's a couple buy low, sell high spots that. And we've won with these this season. Like, it's not like, even though favorites keep winning at big numbers, it's not like we haven't found the thread of the needle on these. We just did it with New Orleans against the Bucks. Obviously not the same situation, but the big numbers do cover. The Panthers just covered against the Rams at ten and a half. We just saw the Raiders cover at 8 and a half against the Broncos. Fluky things happen. Big numbers are just hard to cover. It's just, you know, like at the end of the game, we've seen it so many times with the Titans betting against the Titans. Like when you have a decent quarterback and you've got some momentum on offense at the end of the game and the team is just playing a shell defense, they don't have to worry about losing the game. That's where bad things happen for favorites.
- [31:38]
Chad Millman
Let's go.
- [31:39]
Simon Hunter
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Chad Millman
And Doug, what a horrible call. Hey ref. Open your eyes ref. You're really not gonna Call that. Come on.
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Simon Hunter
Hey, ref, why didn't you customize your.
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Chad Millman
Ah.
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One sip and you're ready to hang more lights. Sip and recharge your jolly now. Because self care isn't selfish. It's necessary. Whether you're a holiday multitasker extraordinaire or the host with the most or, I don't know, the actual Santa Claus, you deserve a moment to reset. So if things are getting a little too jingly jangly, take a breath, center yourself, have a Coke, and get back out there refreshed, radiant, and ready to slay. Yes, I did. See how I. I did Santa's slate. You're welcome. Enjoy a Coca Cola. Refresh your holidays.
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- [37:17]
Chad Millman
Bam.
- [37:18]
Simon Hunter
What are we doing about the Baltimore Ravens visiting the Cincinnati Bengals as two point favorites. The line is already moving in the Bengals direction. It was two and a half. What will Joe Burrow do against the secondary for the second time this even season? Don't forget they played what two and a half weeks ago and Burrow was awesome outscoring the Ravens 27 in the second half. The Bengals should have won against the Bills last week. The Ravens are reeling. If they have any pride, this is a get right spot. But this defense is tragic and you talk about where it seems like players are starting to fade. Like Mark Andrews has been non existent as a weapon for the for the Ravens and they're really struggling on the outside. And Lamar Jackson, who's played more games than any quarterback ever it seems like the past six years at least is banged up nonstop. How do you bet on the Ravens here?
- [38:26]
Chad Millman
It's Baltimore gentlemen. The gods will not save you. Yeah, I don't know what to do with it. My, my model likes it for the Bengals that basically has this game of the pick. So it's like they're pretty much powered the exact same team now that Joe Bro is back. That's how I should say how bad the Ravens are and how much better the Bengals are than I guess we perceive. But I wanted to be on the Ravens. I feel like this is so did I back them to bet the Ravens so we can talk I guess about it again on Thursday because we said it right now. I just, I just, I don't know what to do with this one. Like I know probably supposed to be on the Bengals. The model is right like two and a half. That's a good number for the Bengals. I mean Hard Rock's already moved it too. So clearly professionals are going to back this Bengals side. But I don't know, I just, I can't quit this Ravens team. But I told you there's just, there's a lot of off field drama stuff that's leaking on the public right now. This Raven statement, it's just all bad in the locker room. It's just there's so many teams right now that I, I just can't imagine how horrible the locker room vibes are and this is one of them with this Ravens team. So. I know, I know Chad. We both wanted to be on the Ravens. It probably should be a tell of us. We should probably, should probably be on the Bengals and it's probably a value number.
- [39:33]
Simon Hunter
I know. I don't know why. It's almost like look, I had the same Feelings last week with the Bengals and the Bills, I wanted to be on the Bengals. I loved the Bengals in that spot. But it felt like such a public dog. And this also was going to feel like such a public dog. And that's honestly the only thing that's keeping me from doing it. It just feels too popular to bet the Bengals and I don't want to be popular at all.
- [39:59]
Chad Millman
Okay, sometimes. Again, we won on Big Big. The biggest chalk bet of the week last week was the Rams and we nailed it.
- [40:04]
Simon Hunter
So nailed it. It does hit Cleveland and Chicago. Chicago is a 7 1/2 point favorite at home against the Cleveland Browns. This Bears defense, if it cannot get a turnover, it cannot get a stop. Geno Smith, J.J. mcCarthy, Spencer Rattler, Jordan Love. It doesn't matter who the quarterback is, how good they are or how bad they are, they all find ways to move the ball against the Chicago Bears. And in all of those games, all of those games, turnovers were the difference. The only difference is that the packers didn't have any at the end of the game and they won. The other teams, which were bad, all did. And that's how the Bears were able to eke out victories. So if they cannot stop anybody and Shador Sanders is playing with more and more confidence, do we ever go against type and bet on this Browns defense as a big underdog when everybody still wants to be backing the Bears? Because I will tell you, it does feel to me like the Bears stock has actually risen after they're lost in terms of public perception to the packers because they played so well against a good team. And if not for bad timing, play calling, however you want to measure it, they might actually win that game.
- [41:28]
Chad Millman
Yeah, you're probably right. This probably is the right time to jump off this Bears train, right? You're now at seven and a half. Like that's a crazy high number with a hook. And like you talked about, this Bears defense is suspect. But keep bringing up, Chad, the cold weather. I mean, Chicago, if East coast is going to be in the 20s or 30s, what Chicago being the fives, tens, fifteens, it's going to be freezing at this game. So I kind of, kind of might end up backing the Bears just because.
- [41:59]
I see an avenue with them offensively, how they can move and they've played now, this would be their second week in a row playing in that kind of type of cold where Cleveland, that was in the cold. I mean, Shador played really well in it, but you kind of saw with them that was not a little fluky but it felt a little fluke with this Bears team. It kind of feels exactly like we know what they are. So it's a great matchup if, if you want to be with the professionals. I think they're going to come on the Browns at seven and a half, it just feels like a way too big of a yeah for this Bears team. But I, I, I could be persuaded into this side. I just, I hate it. Like, it just, it was six and a half, went to seven, now it's seven and a half and it's six and a half. I could have been talking to the Bears, but seven, seven and a half. I'm probably gonna have to be on the Cleveland, even though I really don't want to.
- [42:42]
Simon Hunter
It's going to be because I, you know, in my weather app, I have Chicago on there. Even though I don't live there anymore. I always like to know what's going on there, even though I haven't lived there in 35 years. It's going to be zero, right?
- [42:57]
Chad Millman
That's what I mean. There's a big freeze coming. So, like, this is one of the games going to be affected by it. And I don't know. It's, it's tough, it's tough to trust either team. I feel like the Bears are probably the more trustworthy team in that type of scenario.
- [43:09]
Simon Hunter
Do you. Have you ever seen the movie Planes, Trains and Automobiles? Steve Martin, John Candy.
- [43:15]
Chad Millman
Don't call me Shirley.
- [43:17]
Simon Hunter
So one of my favorite lines in any movie ever is they're trying to get back to Chicago. You know, they've gotten screwed every which way. The riding in the back of a pickup truck through the plains of Kansas. Beautiful country, though, isn't it?
- [43:37]
Chad Millman
You figure the temperature is 1:1.
- [43:43]
Simon Hunter
I love that line. It's like he could say negative 85. Just one is such a great deadpan line. Just made me think of it when I said it was zero.
- [43:54]
Chad Millman
You're going to. The Chicago people are a different breed, Chad.
- [43:58]
Simon Hunter
So true. John Candy was Canadian, but really he was a Chicagoan at heart. All right, let's talk about it. Las Vegas Raiders at the Philadelphia Eagles. Eagles are 11 1/2 point favorites.
- [44:14]
Chad Millman
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Famous for the Liberty Bell, Blue Law, soft pretzels and losing football teams.
- [44:23]
Simon Hunter
The Raiders ending was truly bizarre and it has lit up the Internet. So I did some research just to. For everyone who hasn't paid attention. The Raiders were anywhere from seven and a half to eight and a half point underdogs against the Broncos. They kicked a meaningless field goal with five seconds left when they were down 10. Game ends. Broncos win by seven. Everybody who was on the Raiders loses their bets. They're all calling on. Everyone who bet on the Broncos loses their bets. They're all calling for.
- [44:58]
The NFL to investigate this game. They're saying it was rigged. All of this stuff. This has happened before. It happened two years ago. Sean McVay, as a 7 1/2 point underdog against the Niners in 2023, did the exact same thing. Strategically. You know, I get it. Like, who knows? You kick the field goal, you're down 10. If you even get a second left, you get an onside kick. Someone fumbles it, you can run it back. Crazy, crazy things have happened in the NFL. People say they want to investigate the refs. I totally get it. Here's the problem that's going on right now. This is not an integrity problem. These games aren't fixed. If the NFL wanted to fix games, they wouldn't focus on the Broncos and the Raiders. They would make sure that. Why? Because they focus on the Chiefs on Sunday night when they need the Chiefs to win. Because the Chiefs and the Cowboys are the two most popular teams who drive the most ratings. It's not the Rams. It's not the Seahawks. It's not the Broncos. Those are the teams they want to see make the playoffs.
- [46:07]
Chad Millman
You're not good at scamming, Chad. The. You. You don't. That's not how scamming works. It's. It's where people aren't looking. That's where they scam. But you missed the most egregious part of this whole thing. The reason people are so pissed off is Broncos could have kicked a field goal. They went for it on fourth down. Okay. They didn't get it. Maybe they were going for a fourth down because they're trying to run out the clock. Payne does weird all the time. This. This whole Raiders part was so weird because they got that they had no timeouts left. They threw to the middle of the field. The guy gets tackled, the defender was slow getting off of him or whatever. Right.
- [46:36]
Simon Hunter
And they called the delay a game.
- [46:37]
Chad Millman
Yes. Which people got upset about because that's only been called, say, three, four times in the last five years, which is very rare, called type of penalty. And like we just said, they sent out the kicker when there's five seconds left to kick it. Because his whole math was, well, if we kick that field goal and we make it, I puts us in position that we onside kick it, we could recover the onset that's what I just said. And return it for a touchdown. That's what Pete Carroll exactly said to defend himself. It's like, okay, I, I guess that covers all the basis here, but I think that's why people are just so upset. It's like you needed three really stupid things to happen at the end of that game to lose that bet, which you were winning for the entire game. So that's why people are upset. And yeah, I, I told you, I, that's why I took Denver on the money line. It's like I thought something stupid like, like that might happen with the back door there, but to lose that way, I get why people are so pissed. It's like egregious to all the stupid things that happen. But we say all the time that's gambling. It's stupid things happen all the time, it's gambling.
- [47:33]
Simon Hunter
And only gamble what you can lose. And then don't fucking whine about it.
- [47:38]
Chad Millman
Because this is as fun as whining. But this happens all the time.
- [47:42]
Simon Hunter
Here's my solve, and we've talked about this earlier this year, the speed at which they can do expedited reviews now on so many things. How are they just not having somebody in New York doing an expedited review on every single call? And if it is egregious and it's impactful in some way, why aren't they saying to the refs, yeah, pick up the flag. This was not the penalty you think it was. We saw it in the Chiefs game. We saw it in the Chiefs game. There was a penalty that was a phantom pass interference penalty. There was a phantom holding penalty where a guy just fell and they thought it was a hold. Like, we see these things happen all the time. It's so much easier with technology to fix it in the moment. And they're only qualifying it against what they feel are sort of game changing plays. But a holding call can be a game changing play. We just saw it last night. A delay a game can be a game changing play. They should be making these expedited reviews on such a wider menu of calls in the NFL. It would increase the quality of the game. It would eliminate so much of the conversation about how bad the refs are and, and with integrity being front of mind for so many people, it is more front of mind than it even was two years ago when McVay did this. Like, they're meeting this every week, though.
- [48:58]
Chad Millman
We're having this, we have this conversation every week, Chad.
- [49:00]
Simon Hunter
So fix it every week.
- [49:01]
Chad Millman
I know, but I'M saying they're not going to. But that's the issue. It's like they should make it. Coaches can challenge one or two calls per game and it's not done through the referee crew on the field. It's done through New York like you said. So it's not biased to the people you're on the field with. And it's just they need to do something because it's every week I'm getting reached out to by people saying the NFL's fix and we both have the same view. It's very stupid. But I like that get on because it is funny where it's like people really do believe it is fixed and it's like guys, come on, they don't need to fix these games. Like it's just. It's gonna be a billion dollar business regardless if whoever wins or loses that Denver Raiders game. Like we both joke no one cares. But.
- [49:38]
Simon Hunter
But it's like what you said about the red zone the other night. It would be a more enjoyable product. We're all paying for it. We're all going to watch it. It has no fear of fading. It's not going to get worse for the NFL. But why not make it as good as you can be? And you know this is an issue for everybody who's watching at home. It slows the games down. It ruins momentum. It changes the course of these games. Why not just go to the competition committee, expand the menu. Expand the menu of calls. They can be expedited reviews. And if it's a phantom holding call, if it's a bad pass interference call, if it's a bad delay a game call, then just change it on the spot. Why change the outcome of games off of what are small penalties and that's that is happening. It's not just the big turnovers and scores that are the most impactful plays anyways.
- [50:28]
The Eagles are 11 and a half point favorites at home against the Raiders. What do you want to fucking do?
- [50:34]
Chad Millman
Lane Johnson's back. I'll be over the Eagles, but without him I'll probably end up on Vegas. I'm just or pass on this game. So we'll see. I think Lane Johnson will be back, but this is a great spot. Supposed to be once again freezing cold. Geno Smith outdoors. He's already been horrible this year's indoors, let alone outdoors against Eagles. As much crap you want to give them. They do have a really good defensive line they can get after quarterbacks. So we've seen that Phillips kid that got from Miami he's been great for them and he's. I think this is a good matchup for him. So. Yeah, it's. It's a huge number. Public will be all over Vegas. I mean, everyone just like the Chiefs. There's no one out there betting this Eagles team. So I'll be paid.
- [51:08]
Simon Hunter
It has moved down.
- [51:09]
Chad Millman
Yeah. Just be patient. It could get under 10.
- [51:13]
Simon Hunter
Philly has moved from 11 and from 12 and a half to 11 and a half. Yeah. If you're going to talk about buying at the low, I mean, everyone watch that game.
- [51:23]
Chad Millman
So I don't even think it's rock bottom. Like I said, I, I think they could lose this game. They are just. It is so bad, that plane ride. I can't even imagine how horrible that plane ride was. And it's a short week. Like, it's just. Everything is just so negative for this Eagles team. But they should smoke this Vegas team. Just defensively. I just don't see how Gino can move the ball. So really, really couldn't have asked if you're an Eagles fan or that team to have a better team to play against here at home.
- [51:53]
Simon Hunter
Washington Commanders at the New York Giants. The Giants are two point favorites. I don't think any team has been more unlucky than the Giants this year. You mentioned Dr. Nick Giffen from action, our buddy Nick who does the luck rankings and last week, his luck rankings, the two games that were sort of graded A were the Commanders as underdogs against the Broncos and the Giants as underdogs against the Patriots. It worked out with the Commanders, didn't work out with the Giants because their luck continued into the first half until they made it a game.
- [52:26]
Washington Jaden Daniels is expected to play, so that's crazy. It's crazy, but he is. They held him out for precaution because he was questionable to return. You know, talk about buy low, sell high. Similar to the Cardinals here. Like, it's not going to get lower for the commanders losing 31 to nothing to a quarterback that basically everybody was putting on the scrap heap and saying was this generation's Jamarcus Russell and J.J. mcCarthy. So commanders plus two. I feel like. I feel like that's the play.
- [53:08]
Chad Millman
Yeah. Again, we're sitting here Tuesday. I'll probably bet the Commanders, but that's. I don't want to be involved in this game for being totally honest. I'll make this pick for a pick. Pools. But putting actual money on either side of this. There's so many good games this week. I will totally, happily not have this on any tv.
- [53:22]
Simon Hunter
Good. I'm glad we don't talk about it. I definitely don't want to put it in the multi view. Detroit is visiting Los Angeles Rams. Rams are five and a half point favorites. Look, the Lions dominated the Cowboys. That's the good news. Right. In that game they lost Brian Branch for the year. They were already without Terry and Arnold who hasn't even been the corner they need him to be. But he was the best they had and now he's out. Thomas Harper, another guy in the defensive backfield who's been starting may miss the game because of a concussion. They may get Kirby Joseph back. He's been questioned. He's questionable. He's been out for a while with an injury. They beat the Cowboys with a lot of zone against the Cowboys. Cowboys have not played a lot of zone. I mean they played a lot of zone against the Cowboys. They haven't played a lot of zone this year. It doesn't matter against Stafford. He's great against zone. He's great against man. They've got a dominant rushing game. The success rate for this team's rushing game is as good as any team in the last six years when it was 2018 and it was the Los Angeles Rams who went to the Super Bowl. They're playing awesome right now.
- [54:36]
Chad Millman
Yeah. And just doesn't feel like the type of spot they have a letdown or play bad. Right. This is a huge deal. This is Matthew Stafford's former team on the same little opposite for Jared Goff. This is his former team as well. So I. This is. I mean it doesn't get much better than this. This is probably the best game of the week. Just two teams. Both desperately need this game for playoff seating. And you know, I talked a little bit about Sunday night. I, I love the Rams. Like I love them at four and a half. They're five actually. Still at Hard Rock here in Jersey. Every other book is five and a half. I'm seeing a couple six pops. So wanted to. Wanted to make this. Simon says. But don't want to mush it because I am going to bet this heavily. And Simon says it's just been toxic. So I am really, really happy that this number is still under 6. I really love this Rams team for just a bunch of different match with big swing. You just talked about the injuries to the secondary of this team. The Lions. They can try to run the zone because they're going to have so many backups in there. He's just going to eat you a lot of staff, especially the way Puka is playing right now. And we've talked about Devonte Adams. He is my favorite thing about Devonte Andrews. He's an old man level where I feel like Stafford tells him, hey, this time run really hard route like I'm actually going to go to. And they pick their spots where especially in the red zone. It just like feels like if you see certain plays, you can see where Puka's going really hard off the line, as if Puka knows it's coming his way. On the flip side, Devonte Adams just basically rubs the guy at the line. Doesn't even move because he's like, I'm not wasting energy here. And it's just totally in sync. I just love watching this Rams team so much. Everything is just clicking. So yeah, it's, it's a big number. I assume the public will come in on the slides team, especially if it touches six. So like you said, they had that huge win, right? And now they're on 10 days rest. So I get it. Stafford especially. I'm. I'm sure the trends will back it up. Stafford is a dog indoors, you know, and I, I should say golf is a dog indoors. Tends to be a really good spot to take them. But we've talked about those numbers. It feels like it's, it's the Detroit of the past and this is a bang. The Detroit offensive line that's struggled against good defensive lines, which the Rams have and we've seen it. Their secondary is just too many injuries. So I know pains be Lions fans, but this just feels like a really bad spot to go against this juggernaut of a Rams team.
- [56:48]
Simon Hunter
I feel like you're expressing, I've heard this many times during our years together, a quiet confidence on the Rams.
- [57:01]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I like it a lot. Again, I don't want to mush it what Simon says, but this is, I feel like this is a very nice number in a nice spot. So like I said, Hard Rock, it's still five here in Jersey. Shop around, people. You might be able to still get a five. We can hear this, but I just see this getting to 6 by the time most people hear this, unfortunately, I.
- [57:17]
Simon Hunter
Am going to unload on the Rams.
- [57:19]
Chad Millman
I don't know about that.
- [57:21]
Simon Hunter
Bend it all.
- [57:22]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [57:23]
Simon Hunter
On the Los Angeles Rams.
- [57:27]
Lenovo/Liberty Mutual Advertiser
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- [58:01]
IBM Advertiser
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- [58:27]
Chad Millman
Limu Emu and Doug Here we have.
- [58:31]
Lenovo/Liberty Mutual Advertiser
The Limu Emu in its natural habitat, helping people customize their car insurance and save hundreds with Liberty Mutual. Fascinating. It's accompanied by his natural ally, Doug. Uh, Limu is that guy with the binoculars watching us?
- [58:48]
Chad Millman
Cut the camera.
- [58:48]
Lenovo/Liberty Mutual Advertiser
They see us.
- [58:49]
Chad Millman
Only pay for what you need@libertymutual.com Liberty.
- [58:52]
Simon Hunter
Liberty Liberty Liberty Savings.
- [58:55]
Chad Millman
Very underwritten by Liberty Mutual Insurance Company Affiliates, excludes Massachusetts.
- [58:58]
Eva Longoria
This is Eva Longoria from Hungry for History with Eva Longoria and Maite Gomez Rejon. Hi, everyone. Happy holidays. Let's talk about those two words about keeping the holidays happy. Because, let's be honest, even the happiest season could use a boost. You've got to take a minute for yourself, a little me time, and refill those joy reserves. So there's still plenty left to share. Maybe that means taking a break from wrapping, planning, cooking, hosting to recharge with a refreshing Coca Cola. Ah, One sip and you're ready to hang more lights. Sip and recharge your jolly now. Because self care isn't selfish. It's necessary. Whether you're a holiday multitasker extraordinaire or the host with the most, or, I don't know, the actual Santa Claus. You deserve a moment to reset. So if things are getting a little too jingly jangly, take a breath, center yourself, have a Coke, and get back out there refreshed, radiant, and ready to slay. Yes, I did. See how I I did. Santa's slate. You're welcome. Enjoy a Coca Cola. Refresh your holidays.
- [60:08]
Arby's Advertiser
This is Sophie Cunningham and Wes Wilson.
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Show Me Something Advertiser
From Show Me Something.
- [60:11]
Arby's Advertiser
When the weather gets cold, I immediately turn into holiday mode. Sophie, I want comfort food, cozy blankets, and literally anything warm.
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Show Me Something Advertiser
Same. And nothing. Nothing warms you up faster than opening a classic Arby's roast beef. It's like edible comfort.
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Arby's Advertiser
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Show Me Something Advertiser
You can eat it's like soul therapy. And if you're feeling a little extra like we usually are, go for the double Arby's double roast beef. You guessed it, stacked tall with double the meat.
- [60:40]
Arby's Advertiser
Or go full chaos like me and grab the double beef and cheddar. Warm beef, cheddar cheese, sauce dripping red ranch onions, and again, double the meat.
- [60:49]
Show Me Something Advertiser
Holiday season is stressful. Treat yourself to something great. You know what you want. Get an Arby's double roast beef or a double beef and cheddar in store or delivered today.
- [60:58]
Arby's Advertiser
Dude, double roast beef. Double double beef and cheddar. Twice the meat, twice the happiness. Available for a limited time at participating locations while supplies last Bam.
- [61:09]
Simon Hunter
Carolina at New Orleans. Look, I know we wanted this one to get the three. We want to bet the Saints a plus three. And we hate betting against the Panthers when they're in the hunt for the division. Our beloved, beloved Panthers.
- [61:24]
I'd really like to bet New Orleans here. I just want it to be at a number that makes me a little bit happier.
- [61:31]
Chad Millman
Yeah, unfortunately, I'm impatient. I can't wait. Simon says give me the Saints plus two and a half. I want to play a game. Simon says, like Chad said, there are some threes popping up every now and then, but they keep getting hit back down at two and a half. So I want to get the Saints now two and a half just in case the pros do come in and hit this down. But this is going to be the biggest split game the public will be all over this Carolina team especially effective they last time they saw them they upset the Rams and they had a bye week. So yeah, you know, as much as, you know, I want to say, well I thought the public would love this Saints team because they had huge win against the Bucs. Feels like everyone's kind of in the same boat, right? It's like that's more about something being wrong with the bucks than the Saints when they where it's like once again they're overlooking the Saints team. They play really tough and just looking at these teams previous matchups going back these last couple years, while the Saints have been bad, they've kind of owned this Panthers team. It's been shocking. So this year they beat him 17 to 7, which we remember because we bet on it and you know, this exact next next scenario, the next time, the last time they played the the Panthers did beat him 23 to 22 last year and then before that they had lost four straight. They lost to the Saints 47 to 10, 28 to 6 and then 20 to 17. So it's like the Saints have kind of owned this matchup in this Panthers team, usually in this matchup. So I don't know if the public's really looking to that. Historical facts, where we talk. Even last week, it happened, right? All those divisional matchups, the trends went out like these teams. And when you get in these divisional games, for some reason, they just match up well against certain matchups. And we've seen the Saints team, they do match up well against this Panthers team. They give him problems up front where, you know, as old as Cam Jordan is, he gives pressure up the middle, which we've seen with Bryce Young, get him off his spot. That's just not great for him. So I love this number. I wish I could say my model had this great number like I did last week with that Jags team, where I was like, oh, it's four points off. Sadly, the model literally has a set, too. So it's. It's not that big of a margin. I just. It's really about me loving the spot for the Saints team, the effect. They play so well against a Panthers team that tends to let down after big wins. We've seen it multiple times this year. They've had let down spots after big wins, so we'll see how they perform. It's a rare opportunity. Bryce Young, as a favorite in his career, I believe has one win.
- [63:48]
Simon Hunter
I had to spend all day yesterday researching Bryce Young as a road favorite.
- [63:54]
Chad Millman
Has it happened before? No, it's never happened before.
- [63:57]
Simon Hunter
No.
- [63:58]
Chad Millman
I was trying to think of it. I was like, has it happened before.
- [64:00]
Simon Hunter
When could have happened?
- [64:02]
Chad Millman
Right.
- [64:02]
Simon Hunter
It's an impossible.
- [64:05]
It doesn't exist.
- [64:07]
Chad Millman
Not only is he a road favorite for the first time his career, he's getting 87% of the bets and 80% of the money right now.
- [64:13]
Simon Hunter
I mean, it's that I just want to, like. Simon says it incredible.
- [64:18]
Chad Millman
Thank you for looking that up, Chad. Yeah.
- [64:19]
Simon Hunter
Simon says, presented by a Hard Rock bet. It's going to be the New Orleans Saints plus two and a half. It's going to be hard to avoid this one in the contest. Not that we want to, you know, telegraph it, but we're both going to be on the Saints here. The number's probably going to be two and a half in the contest. So that's what we're going to be.
- [64:36]
Chad Millman
Betting, even one and a half. I'd still take it even though, again, that's under my model's number. I still think this, this, this number should be a pick right it's like the Saints just are not as bad as people perceive. And as much praise we're given to Carolina, they're an up and down team. That's just who they are this year.
- [64:53]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I'm with you. Will you be with me on this next game? Green Bay at Denver. Denver is a two point home underdog. It's been bouncing one and a half and two and a half. Every time it gets to two and a half somebody buys the Broncos and every time it gets to one and a half somebody's buying the Packers. And that's what we're seeing in the splits. I'm going to make this one Chad's choice and I am taking the Green Bay Packers.
- [65:26]
Chad Millman
Are you sure you want to do this? Are you willing to make a choice?
- [65:30]
Simon Hunter
What choice? We can't run from who we are.
- [65:33]
Chad Millman
Sharp dudes can just see it. You know what I mean?
- [65:39]
Simon Hunter
You look the numbers. We talked about this on Sunday. It's really hard to find the weakness in this team. Even though it doesn't feel like they've been the dominant talked about team. Right? Everyone in the nfc, they've been talking about the Rams, they've been talking about the Seahawks and the packers, like all of a sudden they're 9, 3 and 1. They're atop the NFC North. Their defense is so fast and playing lights out. Jordan Love is incredible under pressure, which is what the Broncos are going to bring. Even if they're only bringing four or five guys, they're not going to be a blitz heavy team. That's not their scheme. Their receivers on the Broncos on the Packer side are getting healthier. There's just opportunities here for the packers to steal this game. I don't think any of us trust Bo Nix and while we like Bo Nix as an underdog, I think I just like this packers team and I think they're starting to roll and finally getting healthy at the exact right time. So we got to go with the Packers. Chad's choice presented by Hard Rock Bet.
- [66:46]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I'm with you. Love the packers here. I love the match for them and another game I thought would be affected by the cold but it seems like that cold air is just staying just to the east. So just Chicago then heads east of the Mississippi and this game will probably be in the 50s 40s for kickoffs. I know either team really going to be affected that much by the cold, but just look at this matchup. Yeah, the Green Bay, to me they're the team that have been there before. A more complete Team, you expect them in this moment to kind of live up to that moment. And the fact that it is under three feels like it's the right number for the Packers. Right. Like we just. How many times did this game played as a Packers gonna win this game by a field goal? Feels like it's gonna be way more times than this Bronco seems to cover as a dog here. So I'm interested where this line goes. Like I talked a little bit about Sunday night. I thought maybe it could flip. And you did see some one and a half start popping up on this Bronco side. But like Chad talked about, it's all twos now off to two and a half. So a lot of books as well. So if you. If you do like the packers like we do, I would definitely get in now and grab the two before it moves. Two and a half. Because I. I just see this being two and a half, three by close for most books. It's just the packers to me. Professionals will bet them in the public. Well, they just feel like that's the more trusted side than. Even though, you know, the Broncos, 11 and 2, they've been great this year. They haven't really been tested. They have not really been tested. So this is a great test for them against a team that it feels like. We've. We've talked about this Green Bay team, lafleur in December. They seem like they always turn around like McVeigh teams do and get better as they go along here. So we'll trust the better team, I suppose, in Green Bay and take the number under a field goal.
- [68:13]
Simon Hunter
Better team, equal defense, equal coaching, better quarterback. At the end of the day, we're fading. Bo, Nix on this one. Tennessee at San Francisco. San Francisco is a 12 1/2 point favorite. The Titans have covered three of their last four games since interim coach Mike McCoy took over. They have had bursts of competitiveness. I'm not going to say whole games, but definitely bursts. But, Simon, I'm going to refer to Sunday's show in case people did not hear it or watch it. Matt, please roll the clip.
- [68:50]
Chad Millman
Chad, what the hell? If you're so lucky, this is the holiday season. I am so mad at you. Your job is not to let me bet these damn Titan games.
- [68:57]
Simon Hunter
And every week we tried, dude, we tried to talk ourselves out of it this morning.
- [69:01]
Chad Millman
I'm begging you, stop me from putting this in you. You have the power now. You're putting the fix in and you let me put it in. It's ridiculous. I told you, I cannot Get a read.
- [69:11]
Simon Hunter
We can't get a read.
- [69:12]
Chad Millman
Whatever I say, the opposite will happen.
- [69:15]
Simon Hunter
Is there anything else to say about this game?
- [69:17]
Chad Millman
I think I just looked so much younger without no stress of four interceptions by Galen. Hurts in that moment, even in my rage. Yeah, if the people want to keep fading me, I like the 49ers here. Like you're fading. We get to fade. Tennessee off a road win. Now on the road again against a well rested 49ers team. This number should be like 14. It's 12 and a half at a lot of books. I think it's going to keep going up. So yeah, I like the Niners here. I think they absolutely roll this Tennessee team. But once again, I am not putting any money on it. I am wrong on every time with this game. And if you have been following the trend. Hammer. Hammer.
- [69:53]
Simon Hunter
Tennessee Indy at Seattle. Seattle's a 13 and a half point favorite. Lines moved up from 12 and a half. This is the bury the Colts in Sports Media Week. Everyone from ESPN to the Wall Street Journal writing about how the Colts are done, how this was the season they went all in. They traded the future for Sauce Gardner. Now he's out. They thought they had Daniel Jones as their quarterback of the future. Now he's going to be repairing an Achilles. They don't even know who their quarterback is going to be when they start next year. This week they've got to go with Riley Leonard because they had the freak accident with Anthony Richardson on the sideline before a game.
- [70:34]
Listen, all the tickets coming in on Seattle here. I said this one is moved. Do we take a taste? I'm not saying it's a contest play one way or the other. But do we take a taste of the Colts?
- [70:49]
Chad Millman
No, I. I'm not. You try to get me the other time was that the Vikings in this exact scenario, it's not even Riley Leonard. I think it might be the other backup now. And I mean I could spend 10 minutes going to Tatum about Philip Rivers and all these people in me Rivers. All these people in sports media act like they care about player safety and CTE and all this other for all these years. I hated it because it's so phony and fake and you saw it this week, those same people. Oh, wouldn't it be great if Philip Rivers came back? A 44 year old grandfather should come back and play the most violent sport like I cannot believe people want Phil Rivers come back. Another part too. People talking about Phil Rivers as he's a Hall of Famer. When did that Happen. When did all. When did Philip Rivers become a Hall of Famer? Guy with zero playoff success? It's very bizarre times we're living in. I just. I might have too much hate in my heart. I just. As soon as I saw people want to fill Rivers back, it's like, you should all be in jail. This man could die entering a field of play at 44 years old. I saw some report, yeah, he's still selling, still single. It looks healthy. I have no doubt he could come back and play a game. Like, we've seen it with Flacco as an old man. It can happen. Like, these guys are gunslingers. They're smart. They know to read defenses. But to think he can play two or three games and survive, I just. I think that is. That is criminal to put a man like that.
- [72:12]
Simon Hunter
It's never the army that. That is the issue. It's the body, it's the legs, it's the knees, it's the head. Guys who have the arm talent, like Philip Rivers, Dan Marino, John Elway, you know, Tom Brady, they could throw it till they're 80.
- [72:30]
Chad Millman
Yeah, that's.
- [72:31]
Simon Hunter
That's not the problem.
- [72:32]
Chad Millman
It's just so I. I get it. They worked him out and they were trying to get him to come back, but I just. When I saw people in the media, I'm like, man, this is like, criminal. You guys are like. It's like marching a man to his death and celebrating it.
- [72:43]
Arby's Advertiser
It's.
- [72:44]
Chad Millman
I. I just did not like the fact that he's gonna come back. But, you know, as a kid, yeah, that makes me excited. Philip Rivers is coming back. That's great. But for this number, if it's Philip Rivers, sure, Chad, I wouldn't mind taking a piece. But if it's not Riley Leonard and it's the other backup or some other rookie or some guy they just picked up off the street, I just. You can't make me take it. Seattle's defense, we've seen it time, time again, they will destroy a lackluster quarterback performance. So their only hope. I mean, it is terrible. It is. Philip Rivers or Joe Flacco gets released by the Bengals. Other than that, it's just grim, grim, grim. If you're the Colts fan, I feel.
- [73:21]
Simon Hunter
Like we might be seeing Seattle, San Francisco, maybe Jacksonville in the moneyline parlay at reduced spreads come Thursday again, one.
- [73:35]
Chad Millman
Of every epic one, we would sit here and be like, one of them is going to lose. It doesn't. It's not hitting like it used to. I mean, just getting a Cover now for these big dogs. That's the win.
- [73:44]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, does feel that way, right? All right, let's focus on some primetime games. We're going to watch these island games. We know we're going to bet these island games. Minnesota at Dallas. Dallas is six point favorite. It's come down a little bit from six and a half.
- [74:00]
Minnesota went from being the is the first team to ever go from being shut out to winning by a shutout at significant margin as they did.
- [74:12]
I have no read on this game.
- [74:15]
Chad Millman
No, I like, I like Minnesota. It's simply because I think their defense will get stops and offensively I think KFC better design stuff up that they'll be able to move the ball against this Cowboys defense that yeah, they played better of late, but they're still suspect in many aspects of their team. So Hard Rock here in Jersey is actually five and a half and I'm looking. There's still two books with sixes and a half. So if you can, when you take the Vikings and get the six and a half or the six, I think it's going to be out there. But I do see the professionals coming in on this Viking side and this getting bumped down. So despite all the money, all the tickets early money is on the Cowboys team.
- [74:53]
Simon Hunter
I just, well, it moved and moved from six and a half to six. So we know that's where the pros are going to be.
- [74:58]
Chad Millman
So. And I think they're keep coming on. Like I said on Sunday, I think six is a good number for Minnesota. But I get why you're hesitant. Like I betting JJ McCarthy on the road after a huge win. It just does not appear so. I get, I get your hesitation. I'm there with you. The crowd is psyched cause all my rowdy friends are back for Monday night.
- [75:19]
Simon Hunter
But Miami at Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh is now a three point favorite minus 120 at Hard Rock, three and a half everywhere else. And since we stupidly walked away from Mike Tomlinson and the rah rah trends last week, I do want to bring up that Mike Tomlin in his career as a three plus home favorite 51% against the spread. But since 2018 when we entered into the Duck Hodges, we don't know who's going to be quarterback. End of Ben Roethlisberger era, he's well below.500 against the spread as a three point plus point favorite at home.
- [75:57]
Chad Millman
Football's a game. Our business is winning.
- [76:00]
Simon Hunter
Now we're getting all the news this week other than Daniel Jones and the Colts. And how tragic is how brilliantly Mike McDaniel has saved his job.
- [76:12]
And since we have to buy high on both teams right now, I'm more inclined to sell Tomlinson and buy the Dolphins for one reason.
- [76:28]
The Dolphins running game. Devon Achant has just been brilliant this year and before he left the jets game with a rib injury. He will be playing this week, by the way, 92 yards on seven carries. That's the difference for this team. And I know it's going to be, you know, arctic blasts, but arctic blasts for the Dolphins used to mean they couldn't do anything because it was in Tua's hands. Now it's not going to be into his hands. So I'm less uncomfortable with a team that focuses on an explosive run game against a defense in the Steelers that has been terrible at giving up explosive runs.
- [77:06]
Chad Millman
Yeah, everything you said is so true. I, I immediately wanted to be on Miami at three and a half, but the, the freeze has scared me off because we've just talked about how horrible to his record is and everything like that is. But maybe the cheat code is you just two is not nothing these last three, four weeks and they keep winning because they have such a dominant run game. So maybe I'm overthinking it here. Miami probably is the right side. The three though is very tempting. I mean, Hard Rock already moved back to three and a half, so someone clearly came and hit that right away once they moved it. And.
- [77:37]
I'm tempted, not gonna lie, tempted to take Pittsburgh the minus three. But you're, you're. Everything you're saying is so true. It's Miami three and a half. And we know Tomlin's record whenever he's a big favorite like this, especially after that emotional of a win on the road against the Ravens, a divisional foe. It's easy to see them having a letdown here. But you know, it's that those trends, Chad, they're going to scare me off, man. That Miami in the freezing cold, they're just, it's so bad. Especially when they're playing against what this team is right now, Pittsburgh, a divisional team. So we've seen it there. It's the double negative. It's a 2A plane against a team on the road above.500 tuna playing against the team that's in the freezing cold. So I'm sure opinion come Thursday on this one. But said here right now, I, I am leaning towards this Pittsburgh side.
- [78:23]
Simon Hunter
Interesting, interesting stuff. All right, well, listen, we got a lot to review and things a lot to unpack still because lines are still going to be moving and we're going to get roster information. But Kansas City -4 is a debate. New England Buffalo is a debate. Arizona, will it move? Will we start feeling all of a sudden like we have no choice?
- [78:48]
Chad Millman
I think we have like three or four games that we like legit really like.
- [78:50]
Simon Hunter
So I think we definitely like.
- [78:52]
Chad Millman
I think it starts the week honestly. Usually we hate a lot of games.
- [78:54]
Simon Hunter
Today normally like, but I think, I think we I circled on my list games that I know we like Rams, New Orleans, Green Bay. Are those the same three that you have circled?
- [79:07]
Chad Millman
I don't have anything circle, but I do like those.
- [79:12]
Simon Hunter
But those are the ones we agree on.
- [79:13]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I'm just saying I don't write anything like you do. That's what I love about you though, man. You're taking notes.
- [79:19]
Simon Hunter
Take notes. I got a whole notebook. Fill in it. I get new one each year. Just fill it up with Sharper Square stuff. All right. This has been Sharper Square part of the Volume podcast network. We will be back on Thursday with the games we are zeroing in on. We'll talk about our head to head. We'll talk about our brass ball so much more. Watch or listen on YouTube @Sharpersquare. Like this video. Subscribe to the page While you're at it, download some Spotify Apple pods wherever you get your pods. Rate, Review, Subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.
- [79:53]
Chad Millman
Together we can do it.
- [79:55]
Simon Hunter
Nobody can do it alone, but together we can do it. Let's play our kind of football and.
- [80:00]
Chad Millman
We'Ll come out of them with a win. Let's.
- [80:03]
Lenovo/Liberty Mutual Advertiser
If a Lenovo computer for your business is on your holiday list, don't shop around, just go directly to the source lenovo.com it's your last chance to get exclusive deals on the PCs you want for your business like the ThinkPad X9 14, Aura Edition and Yoga 7i 2 in one. So avoid all that shopping chaos and price comparing and just go directly to the source lenovo.com where PCs are up to 34.5percent off. That's lenovo.com.
- [80:34]
Arby's Advertiser
Okay, only 10 more presents to wrap.
- [80:37]
Eva Longoria
You're almost at the finish line.
- [80:40]
Chad Millman
But first.
- [80:53]
Eva Longoria
There the last one.
- [80:57]
Enjoy a Coca Cola for a pause.
- [80:59]
Chad Millman
That refreshes.
- [81:04]
Halion Advertiser
PCs powered by Snapdragon X Elite processors are made to go the distance with blazing fast performance, next level efficiency and multi day battery life. Snapdragon processors are built to tackle it all. From highlight reel editing to intense player research so you can be at the top of your game wherever the day takes you. Learn more@snapdragon.com laptops Snapdragon the heart of your PC. Battery life varies significantly based on device settings, usage, and other factors.
- [81:37]
Simon Hunter
At Hill's Pet Nutrition, we know that.
- [81:39]
Lenovo/Liberty Mutual Advertiser
Pet parent guilt is real.
- [81:41]
Chad Millman
Leaving too long, playing too little. New homes, new babies, Waking them up when they look so comfy.
- [81:49]
Simon Hunter
Running out of patience, running out of.
- [81:51]
Lenovo/Liberty Mutual Advertiser
Treats, running the vacuum.
- [81:53]
Chad Millman
You can only do so much. That's why there's hills.
- [81:56]
Lenovo/Liberty Mutual Advertiser
Science led nutrition to help you give more love than humanly possible because you're only human.
- [82:02]
Chad Millman
There's hills.
- [82:03]
Simon Hunter
Find the right food@hillspet.com science does more.
- [82:09]
Chad Millman
And Doug there's nowhere I wouldn't go.
- [82:12]
Lenovo/Liberty Mutual Advertiser
To help someone customize and save on.
- [82:14]
Simon Hunter
Car insurance with Liberty Mutual, even if.
- [82:15]
Lenovo/Liberty Mutual Advertiser
It means playing in a football game.
- [82:17]
Chad Millman
Boom. 42. You're going down, Doug. Oh yeah, Your price on car insurance.
- [82:22]
Simon Hunter
When you customize and save is going down.
- [82:24]
Chad Millman
Hey.
- [82:28]
Simon Hunter
Limu, what are you doing on their team? Only pay for what you need@libertymutual.com Liberty Liberty Liberty Liberty.
- [82:37]
Chad Millman
This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.