Sharp or Square: NFL Week 15 Reaction

Podcast: Sharp or Square
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Date: December 15, 2025
Presented By: Hard Rock Bet, The Volume Podcast Network

Episode Overview

This week, betting expert Chad Millman and professional sports gambler Simon Hunter break down the rollercoaster of NFL Week 15, sharing insights on betting angles, shocking upsets, and the latest injury news shaking up the playoff picture. The episode covers their "final five" bets, big turning points in Bills-Patriots, Packers-Broncos, Lions-Rams, Chiefs-Chargers, Panthers-Saints, and more. They fire off reactions to superstar injuries—most notably Patrick Mahomes and Micah Parsons—and debate what the “wiseguys” are saying about the playoff race and upcoming lines.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. NFL Week 15: Wild Swings and Injury Fallout

Segment Begins: [03:31]

• Chad and Simon open with an account of their "final five" contest picks:
  • Picks: Kansas City -4.5, Buffalo -1.5, Rams -5.5, Packers -2.5, Minnesota +5.5
  • Two alternates: Washington & New Orleans (both won; they didn't include them—major regret)
• The day was defined by major injuries and dramatic second-half swings that flipped numerous games on their head.
• "Superstar injuries to report. And just about every game we didn't put in was a way that we should have gone." – Chad [03:56]

2. Chiefs vs. Chargers: The Mahomes Injury Era Begins

Segment Begins: [05:12]

• Mahomes suffers a torn ACL (news broke just before recording—devastating for KC).
• Chargers come back from a 13-3 deficit to win, ousting KC from the playoffs.
• "Chiefs got that 13 points and score another point the rest of the game… Gotta give a ton of respect to this Chargers team. A lot of people like us left them for dead." – Simon [08:16]
• Chiefs’ season timeline: Outscored before half, blown leads, exited from playoff race, and Mahomes lost for the year.
• Simon enthusiastically (and a bit savagely) proclaims:
  "Ding dong, the witch is dead. Off with his head… Oh my God… It might be dark, dark days ahead for this Chiefs franchise. I love it." [06:42]

3. Buffalo Bills’ Historic Comeback vs. Patriots

Segment Begins: [12:05]

• Bills come back from a 21-0 deficit to beat New England, covering -1.5.
• Matt Mitchell (producer/Bills fan) recounts how he had to “coach” himself to not let a Bills loss ruin his Sunday:

  "If the Bills come back and win this game, I'll get you, you can do anything you want. … She goes, I want to eat a cookie in a bubble bath…" – Matt [13:09]

• Chad highlights the massive in-game swings and officiating mishaps, with the first half going against Buffalo, only for the second half to flip.
• “It's just the moments you get where you can take a position on [Josh Allen]… he's getting the ball in the second half… we're not totally dead in this game.” – Simon [15:39]
• Bills outscore Pats on five straight possessions and flip the yardage margin into a rout (“in the second half, outgained by 200+ yards”).
• Refs made questionable calls, but nothing dimmed the narrative of Buffalo's second-half dominance.

4. Rams vs. Lions: Rams Flex After Scare

Segment Begins: [20:15]

• Staffords’ early pick-six flips momentum, but Rams’ offense explodes
• "Matthew Stafford throws a pick directly to Aiden Hutchinson… After that, I still wasn't worried because we've seen this so many times." – Chad [20:15]
• Simon: “McVay’s adjustments at half—offensively, defensively—just incredible. They outplayed [Detroit] in the second half.” [22:52]
• Puka Nacua sets career highs; Rams dominate run game and possession.

5. Packers Collapse, Broncos Surge with Bo Nix

Segment Begins: [26:06]

• Packers settle for field goals early, miss red zone opportunities.
• Bo Nix throws for four TDs, outshines Jordan Love—Packers lose and take key injuries.
• “[Bo Nix] looked like the veteran… Whenever we bet against Bo Nix, he throws for 300 yards and four touchdowns.” – Simon [26:06]
• Devastating news: Micah Parsons' torn ACL—Packers’ “Super Bowl window” in jeopardy.

6. Panthers vs. Saints: Late Drama and Promise

Segment Begins: [35:02]

• Saints win with a last-second field goal after a bold drive led by Tyler Shough.
• “Tyler Shough… led the team in rushing… crazy how good this kid is. If he was the number two, number three pick, we'd all be going crazy right now.” – Simon [36:42]
• Divisional game highlighted weaknesses in both teams, but Simon bullish on Saints long-term.

7. Regrets: Washington & Giants, Pick Management, Rookie Standouts

Segment Begins: [39:29]

• Hosts lament not including Washington in card.
• “Shame on us. Like we talked about it, we started talking about it early in the week whether it was Jaden Daniels or Marcus Mariota. We got more excited about it when it was Mariota. … Dumb, dumb, dumb.” – Chad [39:29]

8. NFC Contenders: Niners or Rams?

Segment Begins: [40:55]

• Joe Connolly asks if the 49ers are the team to beat.
• Chad: “With the Rams playing the way they're playing… Rams just beat the Lions. … Rams have a better roster of their top line talent right now.” [40:55]
• Simon notes San Francisco’s “joke” schedule helps inflate their record, and injury risk looms.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Simon (reacting to KC’s demise):

  “Ding dong, the witch is dead. Off with his head… Oh my God… It might be dark, dark days ahead for this Chiefs franchise. I love it.” [06:42]

• Matt Mitchell (on parenting through the Bills’ comeback):

  "She wanted to eat a cookie in a bubble bath. … She got the biggest, deepest, bubbliest bath and ate the biggest chocolatest cookie like an aging Midwestern divorcee. And I’m really proud of her." [13:09]

• Chad (referees and instant replay frustration):

  “Just do the instant review for everything. Just do it. You got the Tech. Just do it.” [20:16]

• Chad (Saints rookie QB Tyler Shough):

  "It's crazy how good this kid is. Like if he was the number two, number three pick, we'd all be going crazy right now because this kid's totally flipped this team…" [36:42]

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment | Timestamp | |-----------------------------------------------|------------| | Opening/main theme & picks review | 03:31 | | Chiefs-Chargers, Mahomes injury | 05:12 | | Bills-Patriots, comeback & Matt’s “cookie” | 12:05 | | Rams-Lions breakdown | 20:15 | | Packers-Broncos, Parsons injury | 26:06 | | Panthers-Saints, Tyler Shough love | 35:02 | | Regret: Washington & Giants, Mariota talk | 39:29 | | NFC race: Niners or Rams? | 40:55 | | Shame On/ Hero of the Week | 42:50+ | | Simon Says / Bets Recap | 52:38+ | | Next week: early leans and game previews | 53:48+ |

Additional Highlights

Shame On…

• Simon: Patriots fans for early gloating and “victory laps” up 21-0 over the Bills [42:50]
• Chad: Chiefs’ front office for failing to fix offensive woes and relying on Mahomes’ magic after their Super Bowl loss [44:30]

Hero of the Week

• Simon: Tyler Shough, Saints rookie QB, for his clutch drive and the promise he brings (and huge for Simon’s rookie futures bet) [46:44]
• Chad: Philip Rivers, returning after five years to nearly upset a top NFC contender, with a performance full of grit and nostalgia [48:07]

Betting Recap & Early Leans

• Rams and Bills marked as winners; Packers and Chiefs, losers; Vikings pending tonight
• Early look at next week: Panthers as home dog vs. Bucs, Bears vs. Packers, Chargers vs. Dallas, Patriots as dog vs. Ravens—Simon and Chad tease which way the “wiseguys” will lean.

Tone & Takeaways

Chad and Simon keep the discussion lively, brutally honest, and full of wry humor. They balance betting logic, gut reactions, and fandom, with recurring reminders for listeners to learn from their process—what went right and wrong. The episode is especially relevant for bettors looking to understand how in-game swings, injuries, and coaching adjustments affect lines and public perception.

For the best betting angles, sharp-sounding regret, and the wild whims of NFL Sunday, this is a can't-miss recap for any sports wagering enthusiast!